Dear New World Investor:

Once a year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmarks the March payrolls level to a more accurate but less timely data source called the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is based on state unemployment insurance tax records and covers nearly all US jobs. As you undoubtedly saw, the annual payroll revision of a record minus 911,000 jobs was even worse than last year’s -818,000. That’s over 1,725,000 phantom jobs in two years. Data had previously suggested the economy added about 1.76 million jobs in the 12-months from April 2024 to March 2025. The new total is less than half that. The average monthly jobs gains during this period (roughly the last 10 months of Biden’s presidency and the first two months of Trump’s) fall from a monthly average of 147,000 to about 71,000. Oops.

The August payrolls number released last Friday was bad even before next month’s inevitable downward revision.

Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance

22,000. That was how many new jobs the BLS estimate were added in August. Do we believe them? Does the Fed believe them? No.

June payrolls were originally reported at +147,000. I wrote then: “I’ve left yesterday’s June payrolls data for last, in part because it is often later revised so much…that it’s become a joke for economists and investors. (But not for traders, who pretend it means something and play their daily gotcha game.)”

In the July payrolls report, June was revised down 90.5% to +14,000. I wrote: “That tells you what’s really going on – the economic models are way behind the real economy, which is turning down.”

In the August report, June was further revised down to a loss of 13,000 jobs, the first outright monthly decline since 2020. So, if you bought or sold based on the original June payrolls report, well…

How can so many highly-paid BLS statisticians be so wrong? Much of the monthly payrolls data is based on a mathematical model of small business start-ups and shut-downs called the birth-death model. It simply trend-lines recent data to forecast the next data point, so it is always wrong at the turns. I’ve learned that three straight months of significant downward or upward revision to the nonfarm payrolls report signals a cycle change.

The Fed says they have two missions: keep inflation down and keep employment up. It’s no wonder they do a poor job when the numbers they get are this bad. The Fed’s decision to deliver a 50 bps (basis points, or ½ of 1%) cut in September 2024 is vindicated because payroll growth in August 2024 will likely be revised to minus 5,000. If the Fed was justified in cutting 50 bps in September 2024, it could be justified in cutting 50 bps in September 2025. But the more likely course is for the Fed to agree on a 25 bps cut next week and then again on October 29 and December 10, rather than trying to deliver a big catch-up cut on September 17.

What happens after the first Fed cut? It depends on whether the economy enters a recession, so the real question is whether a series of quarter-point cuts can keep the economy out of a recession. I don’t think so, although I continue to think a recession will be mild and relatively brief (in part, because I think the Fed will panic cut, as usual).

Click for larger graphic h/t @zerohedge

Today’s August Consumer Price Index report won’t derail the quartet-point cut I expect next week, but it did take a half-point cut off the table. The headline year-over-year increase of 2.9% was above July’s 2.7% and the fastest pace in seven months, but right on consensus expectations. The month-over-month increase of 0.4% was a tenth above the 0.3% expectation.

The more important (to the Fed) core rate, excluding food and energy because not that many people buy food and gasoline, rose 3.1% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, both right on expectations but the strongest monthly rise in six months. While you might think 3% is a tad above the Fed’s 2% target, what you are missing is 3% is the new 2%, at least until payrolls pick up. Today’s other news that weekly jobless claims rose to 263,000 – the highest in nearly four years, up from a revised 236,000 last week, and well above the consensus expectation for 235,000, suggests payrolls are doing the opposite of picking up.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 1.3% since last Thursday to yet more record highs today. The Index is up 12.0% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.5%, also to record highs today over 22,000. It is up 14.1% for the year. For underinvested institutions and individuals, this is very painful. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 2.4% as the biotech bull started attracting FOMO money. Don’t worry, there’s a long way to go. It is only up 6.3% year-to-date.

The small-cap Russell 2000 booked +1.8% to get over 2400 and is up 8.6% in 2025. The Russell has now gone a record 960 days without a sustained new all-time high, surpassing the streak that followed the Great Financial Crisis. This is one of the longest bear markets small caps have ever experienced – almost four full years of chop, failed breakouts, and underperformance. The maximum drawdown during this stretch was –33%. If and when the Russell 2000 finally clears the 2420 ceiling – maybe it happened today – it’s not just a breakout. It will be a structural shift, the end of a historic drought, and a sign that risk is broadening out across the market.

Click for larger graphic h/t Grant Hawkridge

The fractal dimension said a new uptrend was starting, and, boy, was it right. There’s enough energy to rally to the end of the year, although there might be some back-and-forth in November.

Click for larger graphic

Top 5

Changes this week: None – sorry, these still look like the best short-term bets to me.

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX ScyNexis – Resolution of GSK situation
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for September third quarter real GDP ticked up a tenth to +3.1% due, again, to ongoing strength in both personal consumption expenditures growth and private domestic investment growth. The Blue Chip economists are scrambling to catch up.

Click for larger graphic

Dollar Death Watch

A softer dollar is on the government’s wish list to juice US manufacturing and exports. During a media Q&A on July 25, President Trump said: “A weak dollar makes you a hell of a lot more money.” And Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent’s public stance has been coy for a reason: you don’t telegraph your trades when you’re trying to move the world’s reserve currency. Pair that with Stephen Miran (the new Trump-appointed Fed governor and author of the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” whitepaper) laying out how the Treasury could sell dollars and buy foreign currencies to push the greenback down, and you’ve got the playbook. Call it semantics if you want; the practical outcome is the same—deliberate dollar devaluation.

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Monday, September 15
DC – Dakota Gold – Through 9/17 – Mining Forum Americas

Wednesday, September 17
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 10:40am – TD Cowen Novel Mechanisms in Neuropsychiatry & Epilepsy Summit
Fed Meeting – 2:00pm news release; 2:30pm press conference

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $230.03) introduced the iPhone 17, as expected. Also as expected, they did not make any significant AI upgrades to drive trade-ins. The iPhone Air will debut at $999 as the slimmest iPhone ever, while the price of the iPhone Pro rose by only $100 to $1,099.

I still think the 16e will have a huge holiday season. AAPL is a Buy under $205.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $117.86) CEO Daniel O’Day and Chief Commercial Officer Johanna Mercier presented at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), and Cindy Perettie, EVP of the Kite subsidiary, presented at the Baird Global Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). The message remains the same: HIV is growing again and their transition to an oncology company continues. Wall Street is behind the curve on this and will re-rate the stock to major Big Pharma status over the next few years. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $115 for a first target of $150.

Meta Platforms (META – $750.90) CFO Susan Li spoke at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). She does a good job of explaining that Meta’s huge current cash flow is letting them lead the transition to an AI-future. Meta doesn’t talk about the metaverse much anymore, but I suspect that and the “everything app” are Zuckerberg’s end game. META is a Buy under $705 for a long-term hold.

Micron (MU – $150.57) hit an all-time high today after Citi reiterated their Buy rating and raised their target price from $150 to $175. They said said the change was based on rising demand for DRAM semiconductors and Micron’s artificial intelligence products.

They also expect Micron to give better-than-expected guidance for their November first quarter when they report August fourth quarter earnings on September 23. For the August quarter, they are forecasting $11.20 billion in revenues with pro forma earnings per share of $2.62, in line with overall analysts’ estimates. However, they expect the company’s guidance will be well above expectations, “driven by higher DRAM and NAND sales and pricing,” based on “the continued memory upturn being driven by limited production and better than expected demand, particularly from the data center end market.”

MU is a Buy under $125 for a $200 target.

Nvidia (NVDA – $177.17) CFO Colette Kress presented at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). She has a solid grasp of the technology roadmap in addition to the financials.

At this week’s AI Infrastructure Summit in Silicon Valley, Nvidia unveiled their next escalation in what they sell: the transformation of traditional data centers into fully integrated AI factories. The company is developing reference designs to be shared with partners and enterprises worldwide — offering an NVIDIA Omniverse Blueprint for building high-performance, energy-efficient infrastructure optimized for the age of AI reasoning.

In today’s data center paradigm, buildings are often designed independently of the compute platforms they house, leading to inefficiencies in power distribution, cooling, and system orchestration. By designing the infrastructure and technology stack in tandem, the company enables true system-level optimization — where power, cooling, compute and software are engineered as a unified whole.

Nvidia is collaborating with many other companies, including building design, grid integration, power, cooling, and orchestration. These AI factories are so complex and interconnected that no single company can build them alone. Partners include Jacobs for overall design, Schneider Electric and Vertiv for power and cooling, Siemens and Siemens Energy for rapidly deployable, continuous on-premises power delivery, GE Vernova in power generation and electrification to the rack, and a growing ecosystem of specialists in infrastructure design and simulation, and orchestration — including Cadence, Emerald AI, E Tech Group, phaidra.ai, and PTC.

The reference design will be a digital twin of an AI factory. This digital twin integrates the IT systems inside the data center, the operational technology for power and cooling systems inside and outside the data center, local power generation, energy storage systems, cooling technology and AI agents for operations.

With Blackwell GPUs shipping in volume, the next iteration of Nvidia’s GPU architecture, Rubin, is scheduled for release in 2026 and will significantly alter the energy infrastructure within data centers. NVDA is a Hold for a $180 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $164.36) and Hadean, one of the UK’s leading defense tech companies, announced a partnership which will see Hadean’s leading edge wargaming, command & control and battlefield training software deployed on Palantir’s Foundry software.

CEO Alex Karp gave an interesting opening at last week’s AIP Con 8:

He also gave a free-form interview during the conference:

And another interesting one with Amit Kukreja, an early leader of the retail true believers.

PLTR is a Buy under $160 for a $200 first target.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $67.27) CEO Alex Chriss also presented at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). He covered many of the new initiatives that are driving the turnaround. Wall Street thinks it’s “too slow,” but I know how long it takes to alter the course of a huge company like PayPal. Long, but at this point inevitable. When I initially recommended PYPL it wasn’t a sure thing that, although he looked good on paper, Chriss was the right person to reinvigorate it. Now it is. PYPL is a Buy under $75 for a double in three years.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $8.00) followed their wildly successful warrant distribution to shareholders with a $300 million offering of 4.75% senior notes due in 2030 and convertible at $11.21.

In the press release, they said: “Although Enovix does not currently have any commitments or agreements to make any acquisitions, from time to time the Company evaluates potential acquisition targets in the battery ecosystem where it believes it could accelerate the adoption of its batteries into additional markets and customers through the acquisition of businesses or technologies. Enovix is currently in preliminary discussions with a number of such companies that it believes could be EBITDA accretive within 12 months following the acquisition and that it believes present potential long-term revenue synergies for its business; however, the Company does not have any current commitments or agreements to make any such acquisitions. Such discussions are in preliminary stages…”

ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Fastly (FSLY – $7.89) CFO Richard Wong presented at the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). Fastly is steadily increasing its value proposition to its edge clients while slowly and steadily benefiting from improving pricing for content delivery. FSLY is a Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $4.61) appointed Sarah Noonberg, M.D., Ph.D., as their first-ever Chief Medical Officer. She has over 20 years of industry experience leading development programs from discovery through to global regulatory approvals and commercialization across a diverse range of indications and therapeutic modalities, including oncology, neuroscience, rare diseases, gene therapy, and cell therapy. She was most recently the Chief Medical Officer of Metagenomi, where she led the translation of its gene editing platform into a pipeline strategy and contributed to its ~$100 million initial public offering. Prior to Metagenomi, Dr. Noonberg served as Chief Medical Officer at multiple companies, including Maze Therapeutics, Nohla Therapeutics, and Prothena Biosciences. Before that she was Group Vice President and Head of Global Clinical Development at BioMarin. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
   Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $2.99) CFO Erik Ostrowski and Chief Commercial Officer Nik Grund, who presented last Thursday at the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, presented again Monday at the H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference (VIDEO HERE). It was the same presentation as last week, but without the slides.

About 80% of their prescriptions in the June quarter were refills, and doctors are increasing the dose about 30% on average, which directly increases their revenue.

Institutions only own 43% of AKBA, well below their typical 70%+ level. Retail owns 55%. The top 25 shareholders own less than 50%, which also is unusual. There is plenty of room for the stock to go up as more institutions get on board. Buy AKBA up to $4 for the Vafseo launches in the EU, UK, and US. I think GSK and/or Amgen will make a bid for the company.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $5.24 CEO Kabir Nath continued his full-court press with CMO Guy Goodwin, CCO Lori Englebert, and CFO Teri Loxam, to get the word out that COMP360 works and they have resolved the placebo problem to the FDA’s satisfaction. This week it was two presentations, one at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE) and I believe the second the same day at the H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference (BROKEN AUDIO LINK HERE). CMPS is a Buy under $10 for a very long-term hold to $200.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2028
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Inovio (INO – $5.65) ) did a recorded presentation for the H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference (AUDIO and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Jacqueline Shea rightly focused on INO-3107, where they expect the FDA to accept their rolling Biologics Licensing Application by the end of the year. I believe they will be given a six-month priority review with approval in mid-2026.

Although she’s not spending much money on it now, Inovio has a deep pipeline:

Click for larger graphic

INO is a Buy under $5 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: Mid-2026
   Probable time of next financing:After FDA approval in 2026

Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.76) CEO Fahar Merchant presented at the H. C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE).

The good news: they are moving MDNA112 into non-human primate testing, and we’ll see top-line data on MDNA11before the end of this year, so the stock won’t be under $1 for much longer.

Click for larger graphic

They have C$21 million, enough to get them to mid-2026. I expect an equity offering at a higher price after the MDNA11 data. Buy MDNAF under $3 for a first target of $20.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: 2025

ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.18) made an all-too-rare presentation at the H.C. Wainwright Global Conference, but they didn’t post an audio link and there was no transcript. It baffles me why a company with a stock selling just above $1 a share wouldn’t post an audio link. They did post a new corporate presentation – SLIDES HERE. Their corporate update footnotes the ongoing GSK dispute in nearly unreadable 8-point text:

Click for larger graphic

It looks like GSK has decided to relaunch Brexafemme but has lost interest in the hospital applications of ibrexafungerp – the exact opposite of what seems rational. If they gave back the hospital rights to ScyNexis, I believe the company could do another, even more lucrative deal. Big Pharma wants antifungals:

Click for larger graphic

Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Never

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $32.46) CEO Mike Weiss followed up last week’s presentation at the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference with another this week at the H.C. Wainwright Global Conference (AUDIO HERE). Mike used to have an almost contemptuous tone towards Wall Street analysts, but he’s softened to a “we know what we’ve got and all is well” message.

They began enrollment in a Phase 3 trial of subcutaneous Briumvi for MS as an alternative to the approved one-hour intravenous (IV) infusion administered twice a year. Mike said: “If successful, Briumvi would be the only anti-CD20 therapy to offer an IV healthcare provider administered option, as well as an at home subcutaneous self-administered option, providing greater flexibility and choice. This program has the potential to significantly broaden the market opportunity for Briumvi, enabling us to reach the estimated 40% of the RMS CD20 dynamic market that currently opts for a self-injectable CD20 therapy. As previously guided, and assuming a positive outcome, we believe data from this trial would support a potential approval in 2028.”

Buy TGTX under $30 for a target price in a buyout of $40 or more.
Primary Risk: Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($3,673.40) hit yet another all-time high today. And why not? The US debt burden, now above 120% of GDP in connection with a current budget deficit expected to be around 7% of US output, is weighing heavily on the currency. Many prognosticators, such as Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, are forecasting a further 10% drop in the dollar by year-end or within the next 12 months.

In the March quarter, gold’s share of global international reserves rose three percentage points to 24%, the highest point in 30 years. The US dollar’s share declined about two percentage points, to 42%, the lowest since the mid-1990s. Gold is now the world’s second-largest reserve asset, and this trend shows no signs of slowing.

For gold and silver, the deliberate dollar devaluation I described above is the whole ballgame. Easier money, yield curve control vibes, and a policy bias toward a weaker dollar are exactly the conditions that re-rate the metals and supercharge the cash-flow of the best miners and royalty companies.

Like the S&P fractals, the gold fractal dimension said it’s a new bull market and whammo. I wouldn’t be surprised to see $4,000+ directly ahead, which means the miners will be coining real money.

Click for larger graphic

Miners & Related

Dakota Gold (DC – $4.87) continues to advance Richmond Hill with their 2025 drill campaign and metallurgical test program. They have three drills operating at Richmond Hill and expect to drill a total of 27,500 meters (~90,000 feet). They’ll have extensive test results before yearend. The schedule is:

* * Finalize geo-metallurgical domains (Q3 2025)
* * Sample preparation and shipment (Q3 / Q4 2025)
* * Metallurgical sample preparation for testing (Q4 2025)
* * Material testing and column tests (Q4 2025 / Q2 2026)
* * Final test report (Q2 2026)

DC is a Hold for a $6 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Robert Quartermain doesn’t find enough gold. Secondary risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $114,489.85) strengthened even though the bloom is off the crypto treasury hype, as way too many companies are trying to copy Michael Saylor’s success with Strategy (MSTR). Collectively, they are buying less bitcoin and in smaller chunks. According to CryptoQuant, digital-asset treasury firms purchased just 14,800 bitcoin in August, down sharply from 66,000 in June. Average purchase sizes are shrinking too, falling to 343 bitcoin last month — an 86% drop from the 2025 peak. Meanwhile, growth in total bitcoin holdings has slowed markedly, with treasury companies’ accumulation rate sliding from 163% in March to just 8% in August.

Click for larger graphic

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $65.03) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $33.49) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $62.24

My thoughts on the OPEC+ 8’s decision to start unwinding the initial production cutbacks are that the policy move isn’t just about barrels, it’s a signal to the market. The token adjustment (an increase of 137,000 barrels a day, of which maybe 70,000 will be real barrels) shows unity, coordination, and the intention is to indicate that demand isn’t has bad as some predict it to be.

Click for larger graphic h/t @anasalhajji

Bullish oil bets increased by the most since June as hedge funds flocked to long positions as the market tightened and Israeli attacked Hamas leadership in Qatar, an escalation of the conflict.

Click for larger graphic h/t @WinfieldSmart

But oil gave back a little today after the International Energy Agency – usually wrong, never in doubt – said it now sees an even larger record oil surplus next year as OPEC+ continues to revive production and supply from rivals grows, neither of which will happen, IMHO. The surge in jobless claims added to concerns that a US recession will cut demand.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $61.37) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $35.51) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.42) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $12.53) moved up after they said that high-purity neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide produced at its White Mesa Mill in Utah has been manufactured into commercial scale rare earth permanent magnets by POSCO International, South Korea’s largest manufacturer of drive unit motor cores, and has passed all quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) benchmarks for use in POSCO’s EV drive unit motors sold to major automotive manufacturers. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

EQT (EQT – $50.96) signed another liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal, this one a 20-year Sale and Purchase Agreement for 1.0 million tonnes per annum of liquefaction capacity with Commonwealth LNG at their export facility under development on the Gulf Coast near Cameron, Louisiana.

Under the terms of the agreement and consistent with EQT’s existing LNG contracts, EQT will purchase LNG on a free-on-board basis at a price indexed to Henry Hub and market and optimize its cargoes internationally. This additional export capacity enables EQT to further expand its domestic direct-to-customer strategy into the global energy markets.

CEO Toby Rice said: “The signing of this agreement with Commonwealth LNG adds to the momentum we are building in the LNG market and further strengthens EQT’s position as a leader connecting U.S. natural gas supply to growing global demand. With this latest agreement, EQT has established a diversified LNG export portfolio that will provide us with flexibility to market and optimize our own cargoes. As global demand for reliable, lower-carbon energy continues to rise, we believe EQT’s scale, balance sheet strength, and commitment to responsible development make us uniquely capable of delivering solutions that drive both economic growth and emissions reduction across international markets.”

As Doomberg wrote: “Prior to the war in Ukraine, Europe imported approximately 16 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of natural gas from Russia via pipelines. With the completion of Nord Stream II, that total was set to grow further, cementing the symbiotic relationship between Russia’s robust gas supplies and the needs of Europe’s once-thriving manufacturing sector. The war—and the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines by the crew of Gilligan’s Island—changed the arc of history.

“Among the eye-popping headlines emanating from the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin, China, longtime readers of Doomberg will certainly understand the significance of this one:

“Russia’s Gazprom PJSC said it signed a legally binding agreement to build the long-anticipated Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China via Mongolia and would expand deliveries through other routes, in what will be seen by the Kremlin as a major political win.

“In comments made to Russian wires from Beijing, Chief Executive Officer Alexey Miller said the gas producer could ship as much as 50 billion cubic meters a year [~5 bcf/d] via the Power of Siberia 2 for 30 years. Miller said the price for the fuel will be lower than what Gazprom currently charges customers in Europe, according to the reports.”

“If the project goes through, it will enshrine Europe as the biggest energy casualty of the geopolitical earthquakes that have befallen the world over the past half-decade. In essence, the Old Continent will have traded cheap natural gas delivered via pipelines for expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivered via cargo ships, predominantly from the US. The spread between those two products is a significant hurdle that will prove difficult for what remains of Europe’s heavy industries to overcome.”

EQT is a buy under $70 for a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

* * * * *

BoJ understands Trump administration better than most of the world

h/t @drpippa

* * * * *

Your reading Stanley Druckenmiller’s Lost Tree Club Lecture Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 09/11/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $230.03) – Buy under $205
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $117.86) – Buy under $115, first target price $150
  Meta (META – $750.90) – Buy under $705 for a long-term hold
  Micron Technology (MU – $150.57) – Buy under $125, target price $200
  Onsemi (ON – $49.02) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
  Palantir (PLTR – $164.36) – Buy under $160 for $200 first target price
  PayPal (PYPL – $67.27) – Buy under $75, target price $150
  Snap (SNAP – $7.29) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $60.62) – Buy under $35, target price $50+

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $8.00) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $75.59) – Buy under $75; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $7.89) – Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
  PagerDuty (PD – $16.58) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.50) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $36.82) – Buy for SpaceX

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $4.61) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.99) – Buy under $4, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $5.24) – Buy under $10, hold a long time for a 20x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $2.71) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $2.65) – Buy under $5, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.76) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.18) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $32.46) – Buy under $30 for buyout at $40+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($42.05) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $57.95) – Buy under $50, target price $75
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $64.51) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $33.96) – Buy under $35, target price $60
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $65.40) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $15.37) – Buy under $10, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $10.39) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $1.03) – Buy under $1, first target price $10

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $114,489.85) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $65.03) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $4,464.38)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $33.49) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $61.37) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $35.51) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.42) – Buy under $11; $24+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $12.53) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $50.96) – Buy under $70; hold for much higher prices ($100+)
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $45.92) – Buy under $50; $70 target within two years

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Corning (GLW – $75.47) – Hold for $70
  Nvidia (NVDA – $177.17) – Hold for $180 first target price
  Dakota Gold (DC – $4.87) – Hold for $6 target price
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $11.74) – Hold for Royal Gold acquisition

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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