Dear New World Investor:

This was worry-about-inflation week, with both Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index reports. The TL:DR is inflation has slowed, remains sticky at current levels, and the Fed will hold rates higher for longer even if they don’t declare one more increase. In that environment, companies that can grow revenues and earnings win.

Producer price growth slowed in September, increasing 0.5% from August. That was lower than August’s 0.7% increase from July, but above expectations for 0.3% growth. Excluding food and energy, core producer prices rose 0.3% for the month, slightly above expectations for a 0.2% gain.

Click for larger graphic

Leading the increase in September were prices for final demand goods due to higher energy prices, including a 5.4% rise in the index for gasoline. That will reverse in October.

This morning’s Consumer Price Index report was a nothingburger, with headline inflation slightly higher than expected at 3.70% year-over-year (YoY), similar to August’s 3.67%. Core inflation matched expectations at 4.1% YoY, the lowest core inflation reading since September 2021, two years ago.

The headline CPI has moved up for three straight months from a recent low of 3.0% in June due to higher rates of inflation in gasoline, fuel oil, and transportation. The core CPI has continued to trend lower, with declining YoY increases in shelter, medical care, new and used cars, and apparel.

On a month-over-month (MoM) basis, headline inflation is down to 0.4% from 0.6% in August. Over half of the increase was caused by shelter. That index rose 0.6% MoM in September versus 0.3% in August, with rent rising 0.5%. YoY it rose 7.1%, which is lower than August but still decelerating very slowly. The core CPI with New Rentals (Zillow/ApartmentList) used instead of the badly lagged CPI measures is 1.9% YoY and Chairman Powell knows it.

CPI Shelter is unique in that its primary variable (rent or Owner’s Equivalent Rent) is not real time like food or gas. It’s lagged by design. So we know with confidence where this train is going:

Click for larger graphic h/t @jayparsons

As the Fed minutes said, uncertainties around the economy, oil prices, and financial markets support “the case for proceeding carefully in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate.”

Market Outlook

The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.7% and is up 30.0% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 ticked up 0.2% but still is down 1.5% in 2023. The S&P 500 added 2.1% since last Thursday and is up 13.3% year-to-date. Seasonality is about to kick in right here…

Click for larger graphic h/t The Market Ear

Thinking about buying protection? Too late. VIX bullish seasonality is supposed to fade from here.

Click for larger graphic h/t The Market Ear

Yet the trend-following CTAs (commodity trading advisers) who manage about $350 billion of assets are short $47 billion (!!!) of US equities, according to data from Goldman Sachs. That is their biggest short position in US stocks on record.

Click for larger graphic

This extreme short positioning will ultimately fuel buying pressure in the current quarter as these wrong-way bets are unwound. Similar extremes of short positioning among CTAs occurred during the March 2020 stock market bottom during COVID-19, and in late 2018, when the market went on to stage a strong rally throughout 2019.

The fractal dimension is consolidating the drop that was consolidating the prior rise. I know it can be confusing – think of it like a dropped tennis ball that bounces up and down with diminishing force until it lies still. That would be a fractal dimension of 100, which never happens, but once the back-and-forth gets to this level, a new trend can start.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
TGTX TG Therapeutics – Rapid recovery from overdone pullback
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage this fall
SFTBY SoftBank – for ARM IPO valuation
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat NDA filing 2023; approval 2024
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model increased its estimate of September quarter real GDP growth to +5.1% due to the strong September payrolls report and strength in wholesale trade.

Click for larger graphic

Dollar Death Watch

The crowd has been busy chasing the dollar lately. We are approaching extreme levels last seen in August 2022. The dollar strengthened more today after the CPI rose a bit more than expected in September on a still elevated cost of rent. Dollar buyers thought that bolstered the prospect of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high for some time.

Click for larger graphic h/t The Market Ear

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, October 13
Hamas’ Global Jihad Day of Rage – Be situationally aware!

Thursday, October 19
FCX – Freeport McMoRan – 10:00am – Earnings conference call

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $180.17) iPhone ownership by teenagers is still near record levels, at 87% with their intent to purchase still high at 88%, according to Piper Sandler’s latest research survey. Piper also found that Apple Pay was their #1 payment app used in the last month at 42%, followed by Cash App at 27%, suggesting Apple’s services are benefiting from its ecosystem. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Corning (GLW – $28.13) dipped after J.P. Morgan downgraded it on fears of a “tepid recovery” into earnings. They cut their recommendation from Overweight to Neutral and reduced their target price from $43 to $36. They said Corning’s recovery looks to be taking longer than initially anticipated and: “The direct consequence of a milder recovery is considerable downside to current consensus estimates that embed sequential earnings growth in 4Q23E, as well as downside to consensus expectations of +25% y/y EPS growth in 2024E.”

We are invested in Corning because it is a well-managed, huge, diversified tech company with a relatively high yield. If the recovery from the pandemic takes 2 ½ years instead of two years, I really don’t care. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2024 .

Meta Platforms (META – $324.16) hit a new 52-week high today – yesterday was its highest close sine January 2022. They introduced new generative AI tools for advertisers. The free new tools use AI image, video, and text generation to make it easier to create ads for Meta’s various platforms, potentially providing a new tailwind to boost to the company’s $117 billion advertising business. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $10.41) was the main focus of a Twitter Spaces with Marc Cohodes.

There was an excellent article on Seeking Alpha: Enovix: Overreaction To Strategic Realignment Of Fab1 Plant. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

PagerDuty (PD – $20.50) privately placed $350 million of 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028. The buyers can take up to another $52.5 million when the deal closes tomorrow. They are convertible at $27.35 per share, a 27.5% premium. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.42) has a space software team that is one step closer to a landing on the Moon for Firefly Space’s second Blue Ghost mission as they successfully completed the program’s preliminary design review. Rocket Lab is supporting Firefly’s transfer vehicle and lunar lander with flight software and guidance, navigation, and control to help the mission deliver NASA payloads to lunar orbit and the far side of the Moon in 2026. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Velo3D (VLD – $1.44) got a decent write-up on Seeking Alpha: Velo3D: Stock Is A Hold With Its Expanding Market Share. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.60) filed an 8K and a prospectus preparatory to their reverse split and uplisting. The stock has gotten killed by the market makers, as usually happens. This should all be over soon and we’ll see the September quarter revenues and who buys the uplisted stock. ARTH is a Hold for a buyout.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
   Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2024
   Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2025
   Probable time of next financing: December 2023 quarter

Inovio (INO – $0.53) got a HUGE gift from the FDA – they will not have to do a Phase 3 trial to file for approval of INO-3107 for Recurrent Respiratory Papillomatosis. The FDA said that data from the already-completed Phase 1/2 trial can be used to submit a Biological License Application under the accelerated approval program. I expect the company to file the BLA in the first half of 2024.

They will update their cash runway guidance on the next earnings call, and it should be extended from the current September 2025 guidance. INO is a Buy under $7 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: 2025

Invitae (NVTA – $0.62) will showcase their work next week at the National Society of Genetic Counselors Annual Conference in Chicago that highlights the importance of genetics-informed patient care. Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
   Clinical stage of lead product: NM
   Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Not needed

Medicenna (MDNA – $0.29) appointed Humphrey Gardner, MD, as Chief Medical Officer (CMO). He has over 30 years of experience, starting as Assistant Professor at The Scripps Research Institute, Research Fellow at the Whitehead Institute at MIT, and Clinical Fellow at Harvard Medical School. He then held senior roles at AstraZeneca as Clinical Vice President Translational Medicine, Oncology; Novartis as Executive Director, Oncology Translational Laboratories; and Biogen. Then he was the CMO at Stingthera, CMO in Residence at Roivant Sciences, and Chief of Medical Oncology at Evelo Biosciences. Most recently, Dr. Gardner served as CMO at Harbour BioMed, advancing novel antibody and bispecific therapeutics in oncology. He has leadership experiences advancing immune-based therapies for cancer and other diseases from the earliest stages of development through regulatory approvals. Buy MDNA under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: March 2024

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $6.94) presented Briumvi data from both the Phase 3 trials and, for the first time, the ENHANCE Phase 3b trial evaluating patients who switch from an IV anti-CD20 antibody to Briumvi. Buy under $12 for a target price in a buyout of $30 or more.
Primary Risk:Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,881.70) got a solid bump from the Hamas attack on Israel. Global central banks have been snapping up record amounts of gold since the start of 2022 – a trend that should continue as countries look to move away from an “overconcentration” of reserves in the dollar, according to State Street Global Advisors. Monetary authorities across nations made net purchases of 387 metric tons of the yellow metal in the first half of 2023, after buying an unprecedented 1,083 tons the whole of last year.

State Street wrote: “The reasons driving central bank gold purchases — to diversify their reserves, improve their balance sheets, and gain liquidity from an asset without credit risk — likely won’t change
given today’s increasing economic and geopolitical risks. Therefore, as we look ahead, we expect central banks to continue their role as net purchasers of gold.”

The fractal dimension just consolidates more and more as long as the whiplash continues, collrcting more energy to power the next upmove.

The World Gold Council put out a backgrounder.

Miners & Related

First Majestic (AG – $4.92) reported September quarter production of 6.3 million silver equivalent ounces, consisting of 2.5 million ounces of silver and 46,720 ounces of gold. They are on track to meet their full-year guidance of 26.2 million to 27.8 million silver equivalent ounces. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.32) said that the State of Oregon’s Technical Review Team has determined that Paramount’s Consolidated Permit Application for the Grassy Mountain gold and silver mine is complete. The next step is for the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI), to issue the Notice to Proceed. DOGAMI expects to issue final consolidated permits for the mine one year from the issuance of the Notice, in concurrence with State laws. PZG is a Buy under $1 for a $10 target as gold moves higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
   Probable time of next financing: 2023

Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $4.54) said they sold approximately 21,100 attributable gold equivalent ounces and realized preliminary revenue of $41.2 million during the September quarter. Their preliminary cost of sales, excluding depletion, for the three month period was $4.6 million, resulting in cash operating margins of approximately $1,700 per attributable gold equivalent ounce, up from $1,383 per attributable gold equivalent ounce for the September 2022 quarter. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $26,715.64) got a safe haven bump from the Hamas terrorists, but it faded.

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $20.02) closed at a 16.7% discount to its net asset value. Once the conversion to an exchange-traded fund is approved, that entire discount will go away and be put in your brokerage account. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $83.49

Oil jumped after the Hamas attack but slipped back when Saudi Arabia said they would do whatever is necessary to stabilize the market. The Energy Information Administration said crude inventories rose 10.176 million barrels last week as lower than expected refinery throughput resulted in the high crude build. Low crude exports will reverse this week.

Cushing inventories fell 0.319 million as the “bottom of the tanks” problem raised its head again. Gasoline fell 1.313 million barrels as last week’s bogus jump started to reverse. Meanwhile, global oil inventories are low.

Click for larger graphic h/t @ericnuttall

How ridiculous was last week’s Department of Energy gasoline demand print? So ridiculous, it was the biggest outlier on record to ethanol-implied gasoline demand. Translation: yet another example of the DOE desperate to slam oil prices by “adjusting” the underlying data.

Click for larger graphic h/t @zerohedge

Goldman Sachs on the DoE’s reported collapse in gasoline demand: “Alternative measures of demand implied by ethanol blending and from the DoE (“unadjusted demand”), and physical prices suggest demand remains robust.” The EIA just said that US implied weekly gasoline demand rose the most since May. The first graphic below is from last week and the second from this week:

Last week:
Click for larger graphic h/t @AndreasSteno

This week:

Click for larger graphic h/t @AndreasSteno

OPEC raised their oil demand view in their long-term outlook. OPEC now expects world oil demand to reach 116 million barrels a day by 2045, around 6 million barrels per day higher than they expected in last year’s report, with growth led by China, India, other Asian nations, Africa, and the Middle East. They added: “Calls to stop investments in new oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos.” They put the required oil sector investment at $14 trillion out to 2045, up from $12.1 trillion estimated last year.

As the great @JohnFMauldin pointed out, it is more than just needing an extra 15 million barrels a day by 2045. There is about 5% to 6% depletion per year. Best case, we need to find another minimum 50 million barrels per day. Investors may be catching on; they are dumping renewable energy funds at a record pace.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $69.62) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $38.10) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

EQT (EQT – $46.41) is benefiting from increasing natural gas prices.

Click for larger graphic h/t @sentimentrader

EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China.

Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.09) sold five properties in Mongolia, including four investment properties and one property classified as Property and Equipment, for gross proceeds of approximately C$10.7 million. These properties had a carrying value of approximately C$11.0 million at June 30. The proceeds are gross of taxes, commissions, FX conversions, transfer fees, and other expenses to be finalized over the next few months. They intend to use the proceeds for general operating activities, to fund stock buybacks, and to reduce existing liabilities. MNGGF is a buy under $1.30 for a long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Harris Kupperman makes bad investments.

* * * * *

The decades of peace we have experienced recently are extraordinarily unusual in a longer-term context. This 600 year chart of conflicts highlights how extremely low it’s been of late (it ticked up to touch less than 1.0 since 2013).

Click for larger graphic h/t @BobEUnlimited

* * * * *

George Friedman on Hamas & Israel

* * * * *

Click for larger graphic h/t @BrianFeroldi

* * * * *

Your realizing the Canadian truckers won Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 10/12/23. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $180.71) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $28.13) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $76.76) – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Meta (META – $324.16) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $21.37) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $10.41) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $46.27) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $15.77) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $20.50) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $9.70) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.42) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $1.44) – Buy under $6, target price $50

$20-for-$1
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.93) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $2.34) – Buy under $10, ultimate target $300
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $5.88) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Inovio (INO – $0.53) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $0.62) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.29) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.00 – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $6.94) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($21.97) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $22.97) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $25.39) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $17.39) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $23.33) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.24) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $4.92) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.32) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $4.54) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $29.38) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $26,715.64) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $20.02) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,538.94) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $10.88) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $69.62) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $38.10) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  EQT (EQT – $46.41) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.42) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $36.07) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $29.69) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $22.33) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $12.25) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $27.59) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.33) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.09) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.60) – Hold for buyout

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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