Dear New World Investor:

Before we start, I want to thank so many of you for the wonderful emails and messages you sent over the last week. Being in bed for 60 straight hours with COVID is no fun, but knowing you had my back means the world to me and helped me recover faster, for sure. I still can’t taste anything – weird.

I put some of that downtime to good use, thinking of how I want to change New World Investor going forward. Basically, I think there are only four buckets of stocks worth holding for the next 10+ years – Safe Havens, Stupid Cheap, AI/Metaverse, and Public Venture Capital. The majority of the companies I recommend are long-term investments meant to be held for five to ten years. That strategy has proven to be the best way to make money in the stock market over time.

But holding development-stage Public Venture Capital stocks may not be appropriate for retail investors. It requires holding through this vicious biotech bear market (most biotechs sell below cash per share), and being able to tell the difference between bad management decisions and bad luck (e.g., ScyNexis). It also requires being able to understand why a management decision makes sense even though Wall Street reacts by killing the stock (e.g., Enovix).

Much of what goes on in the stock market is professionals separating amateurs from their money. I’ve been doing this long enough to spot most of those games playing out. Anyhow, these are preliminary thoughts – more to come.

The stock market has been weak because 10-year Treasuries are at the highest yield in 16 years because inflation is slowing…wait, what?

More about the slowing inflation below, but here’s the important point: When a stock or the market acts 180⁰ in reaction to news, either:

* * The news was completely or even over-discounted, the classic “sell the news,”
OR
* * Wall Street pros are setting up yet another rug pull to extract the large sums of “their” money they believe we are wrongfully and temporarily holding.

This looks like the latter. The August Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, as they tell us over and over – was up 0.4% from August, a skotch less than the +0.5% expected but double the July-over-June increase. But the core PCE was up only 0.1% month-over-month (MOM), the smallest monthly rise since November 2020, half of the +0.2% expected and July’s +0.2%. That monthly value is below the Fed’s 2% annualized target for the first time since the lockdowns.

Click for larger graphic h/t @mtkonczal

On a year-over-year (YOY) basis, the headline PCE was up 3.5%, as expected. July was +3.4%. The YOY core was up 3.9%, as expected and well below August’s +4.3%. It was about the best inflation print ever, and under the hood it’s even better – it’s all in the right directions.

This month had zero inflation in core goods and further slowing in services, especially non-housing services, which is exactly the scenario the Fed wants to see.

Click for larger graphic h/t @mtkonczal

I recognize that there’s a lot of volatility in non-housing services, but the trend is good. Although the three- and six- month averages are the same, that hides a real slowdown in the level in recent months. Chairman Powell probably will think it’s worth pausing to see if the slowdown continues even as the labor market and growth continue to remain strong.

Click for larger graphic h/t @mtkonczal

As long as inflation comes down, Powell probably doesn’t care if GDP stays positive and unemployment stays low. As long as wage growth slows – as it is.

Click for larger graphic h/t Danielle DiMartino Booth

Click for larger graphic h/t Danielle DiMartino Booth

I was an analyst at American Express while Fed Chairman Volker raised the funds rate high enough to kill inflation. Powell is not going to raise rates to 16% because inflation is 3%. Only the hedge funds would believe that.

Click for larger graphic h/t @3primeInvest

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 1.0% since last Thursday. 93% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading below their 50-day moving average. The Index is up 10.9% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% and is up 26.3% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 3.5% and is down 1.7% in 2023.

In 2020, stocks fell 3.9% in September and then returned 11.7% in the December quarter. In 2021, September was down 4.8% and the December quarter was up 10.7%. Last year, stocks were clocked for 9.3% in September and bounced back 7.1% in the fourth quarter. This year, September was down 5% and we’ll see if the usual seasonal rally comes through again.

The fractal dimension shot up with the weakness in stock prices and we are now thoroughly consolidated to power the December quarter upswing.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
TGTX TG Therapeutics – Rapid recovery from overdone pullback
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage this fall
SFTBY SoftBank – for ARM IPO valuation
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat NDA filing 2023; approval 2024
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is holding steady at +4.9% real GDP growth for the September quarter. That’s a barn-burner.

Click for larger graphic

While everyone is chasing the squirrel of Job Openings – which even economists recognize is a bunk number – consumer confidence has completely crashed. Americans are this pessimistic because the labor market is burning red hot? I think not. But watch the talking heads on CNBC talk about the scorching red hot labor market. Sizzling! Burning the Fed up from the inside! Gonna need ten, twenty more rate hikes, at least! Can’t stop this economy! Aiyee!

Click for larger graphic

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, October 6
September payrolls – 8:30am – +170,000 expected; was +187,000 in August

Tuesday, October 10
Short Interest – After the close

Thursday, October 12
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $174.91) lead times for the iPhone 15 have hit “record highs” across North America, according to Morgan Stanley. They wrote: “Looking at past cycles, new model iPhone lead times generally extend in the first week after pre-orders begin before starting to level off/contract. Therefore, it will be critical to observe how iPhone 15 lead times trend this week and into early October when iPhone 15 Pro Max supply improves, and Apple adjusts its build forecast based on early pre-orders demand.”

They said iPhone 15 Pro Max lead times are now 45 days in the US and 47 days internationally, having increased between four and six days since last Tuesday. Compared to previous cycles, the lead time for the iPhone 15 Pro Max is the longest of the past seven years. iPhone 15 Pro lead times have increased since last week, at 35 days in the US and 36 days on average internationally – the longest of any Pro model launched in the past five years.

Lead times for the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus are roughly 16 and 16.5 days in the U.S. and about 17 days internationally, which they said are the second longest of the base and Plus iPhone models over the past four years. They have an Overweight rating on the stock with a $215 target price.

What most people are missing about Apple is that the coming Apple Vision Pro is not a virtual reality headset, it is a new computing platform called Spatial Computing that will change the world more than the smartphone did. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Corning (GLW – $29.58) announced a 28¢ quarterly dividend, giving this Safe Haven tech stock a forward yield of 3.8%. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2024 .

Meta Platforms (META – $304.79) released artificial intelligence chatbots with distinct personalities across its social-media apps to increase engagement with younger users. One, nicknamed “Bob the robot,” is a self-described sassmaster general with “superior intellect, sharp wit, and biting sarcasm.” They also launched 28 more AIs in beta, with unique interests and personalities. Some are played by cultural icons and influencers, including Snoop Dogg, Tom Brady, Kendall Jenner, and Naomi Osaka.

In addition, Meta has launched several Large Language Models such as AudioCraft for generating music from text prompts and an all-in-one multilingual AI translation model, SeamlessM4T. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.38) CEO Masayoshi Son said that he thinks general artificial intelligence will top the collective intelligence of humanity within the next 10 years. He said: “It is wrong to say that AI cannot be smarter than humans as it is created by humans. AI is now self learning, self training, and self inferencing, just like human beings.”

He also said “artificial super intelligence” will come in the next 20 years and would surpass humanity by a factor of 10,000. Never bet against Masa. SFTBY is a Stupid Cheap stock and a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $9.97) was smacked down after management decided to turn the Fremont, CA, Fab 1, into an R&D and design facility and shift all their production to Malaysia. This is a perfectly reasonable decision that has been made by hundreds of other tech companies. Invent and design in Silicon Valley, where the talent is, and manufacture in Asia, where it’s cheap. This is not a big deal, and certainly didn’t justify this:

Click for larger graphic

Interestingly, the company said one of the R&D programs in Fremont is for EV batteries. They won a contract with Accurate Meditech for their Class II FDA-Approved “Mini” multi-vital sign monitor.
The Accurate Mini continuously monitors blood pressure, pulse rate and other vital signs. Accurate Meditech received FDA clearance in June 2023. With Enovix’ standard IoT and Wearable-sized battery, the Mini is anticipated to last over four months on a single charge, a 35% improvement compared to standard graphite batteries. It will be available over the counter and sold at CVS, Walgreens and Walmart in the US in the second half of 2024. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Fastly (FSLY – $15.76) got a reiterated Strong Buy recommendation from Raymond James ahead of their September quarter earnings report. FSLY is a Buy up to $20 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.64) said their SemsiML division partnered with Silicon Technology for distribution in Japan of their edge AI solutions with sensor-driven intelligence into voice recognition, audio event detection, motion recognition, predictive maintenance, anomaly detection, and other products for Japanese OEM customers. Silicon Technology’s application engineers will assist local OEM customers in the evaluation and implementation of SensiML’s toolkit. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.45) formally cut their September quarter guidance due to the postponement of Electron missions until they figure out what went wrong in the aborted Capella Space launch. They now expect revenue in the range of $66 million to $68 million, versus their prior forecast of $73 million to $77 million. The non-GAAP gross margin will be 26% to 28% compared to a prior forecast of 28% to 30%.

They said with multiple Electron launch vehicles in production, and launch sites standing ready, they can return to flight as soon as investigations are complete and corrective measures are in place. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.03) resubmitted its New Drug Application for vadadustat to the FDA on September 28. The FDA should accept it within 30 days and give them a PDUFA date of March 28. Approval looks certain to me.

The Therapeutic Goods Administration in Australia approved vadadustat as an oral therapy for anemia associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in adults on dialysis. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the vadadustat launches in the EU, UK, and (after FDA approval in March 2024) the US.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA to be refiled by 9/30/23
   Probable time of next FDA approval: March 28, 2024
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2024 or never

Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $2.72) presented on an AML panel at the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference (WEBINAR HERE). Speaking about the tuspetinib/venetoclax doublet, CEO Bill Rice said: “On August 1, we announced we had dosed about 15 patients and we had a 44% response rate in patients that had failed venetoclax previously. We were thrilled at these data – much better than any of the therapies that we’ve seen. We think that can take us into registrational trials and we believe that can also bring us an accelerated approval pathway.”

“By ESH [European School of Haematology] at the end of October we expect to show roughly double that patient count and triple or more that August 1 count by ASH [American Society of Hematology] in December. And the physicians are just trying to pile patients on the study. The limiting factor now is getting enough venetoclax in order to treat the patients.”

This was an excellent presentation that directly addressed Wall Street’s major complaint about Aptose – that they are moving too slowly. The “physicians are just trying to pile patients on the study” certainly had a nice ring to it, and data on 30 or more patients at ESH and 45 or more at ASH will be a game-changer. APTO is a Buy under $2.50 for a $30 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $6.85) also presented at the Cantor Healthcare Conference (VIDEO HERE). It was a review of the company from a different perspective. They didn’t say more about the Phase 3 trials except to confirm yet again that one will read out in the summer of 2024 and the other in mid-2025. Patient recruitment is on schedule.

They mentioned that the ongoing PTSD trial is having stronger results than they expected. We should see some data later this year.

GlobalData is forecasting the global psychedelics drugs market will surge by 2029 to $7.2 billion, a compound annual growth rate of 55%.

Click for larger graphic

CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Invitae (NVTA – $0.64) jumped after the FDA approved its Invitae Common Hereditary Cancers Panel, a first-of-its-kind test to identify cancer-related genes. This represents the first broad panel that is used to identify germline variants associated with hereditary cancer to gain market authorization from the FDA. Using DNA extracted from a blood sample, the test analyzes 47 genes associated with an elevated risk of developing cancers in the breast, ovary, uterus, prostate, and gastrointestinal system. The test also can help detect cancer-associated genetic variants in people who have already been diagnosed with cancer.

Some of the notable genes the Invitae Common Hereditary Cancers Panel detects include BRCA1 and BRCA2, which are known to be associated with breast and ovarian cancer. Interestingly, the FDA approved the test using its De Novo premarket review pathway based on data from 9,000 clinical samples, which indicated ≥99.0% accuracy for all genetic variant types tested. No clinical trial needed.

The FDA said: “This test can assess multiple genes in a single test by using next-generation sequencing, which has proven helpful in providing insight into genetic variants with sensitivity and speed. Today’s action can provide an important public health tool that offers individuals more information about their health, including possible predisposition for certain cancers, which can help guide physicians to provide appropriate monitoring and potential therapy, based on discovered variants.”

Through this application, Invitae was able to establish a new category of device based on its testing technology and methodology which provides potential marketing differentiation and opportunities for its largest testing category. First of many! Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
   Clinical stage of lead product: NM
   Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Not needed

Medicenna (MDNA – $0.28) approved a reverse split in the range of 1-for-5 to 1-for-15. Buy MDNA under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: March 2024

ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.24) said that, in consultation with its partner Glaxo SmithKline, the company is recalling ibrexafungerp and placing a temporary hold on its clinical studies due to the risk of a potential cross-contamination during the manufacture of ibrexafungerp. This is a problem of the contract manufacturer.

Manufacturing problems are engineering problems and therefore solvable. I would not be surprised if GSK brings manufacturing in-house. There isn’t much Brexafemme in the field because GSK hasn’t started marketing it yet, so this is a minor deal. The decision to recall follows an investigation that found the production of a beta-lactam drug substance using the same equipment used in ibrexafungerp’s manufacturing process. The FDA requires separate manufacturing for beta-lactam compounds because the non-antibacterial compound can lead to hypersensitivity or allergic reactions in some individuals. ScyNexis said it has not yet received such reports and is not certain if ibrexafungerp was contaminated with a beta-lactam drug substance.

The clinical hold and recall affect two ongoing clinical studies: the Phase 3 MARIO study and a Phase 1 lactation study. The hold does NOT impact the recently completed FURI, CARES, VANQUISH and SCYNERGIA clinical studies, for which dosing is complete.

The FDA said that the compassionate use program for ibrexafungerp, which provides ibrexafungerp to patients with limited or no other treatment options, can continue provided the patient’s treating physician concludes a favorable benefit-risk assessment and the patient is made aware of and consents to the risk. This applies to patients currently in the program as well as for new patients, pending confirmation of available supply.

ScyNexis’ pre-clinical compound, SCY-247, is not affected by these developments. The stock was hit by computer bot selling all out of proportion to the reality of the situation.

Click for larger graphic

Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2023/2024
   Probable time of next financing: Never

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $7.90) also presented at Cantor (VIDEO HERE). CEO Michael Weiss wouldn’t comment on the $26-$27 million revenue estimate for the September quarter, other than to say the original consensus for $20 million is “easy pickings” and he’s pleased with how August and September went.

They now have 90% insurance coverage, which will help with revenues and profits. Buy under $12 for a target price in a buyout of $30 or more.
Primary Risk:Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,833.70) was whacked by the surge in interest rates, losing its $1,950 peg for now. The fractal dimension shot up, as expected with this kind of a dump, building plenty of energy for the next push up.

Miners & Related

Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $4.43) renewed its $625 million revolving credit facility through September 2027. Their capital allocation strategy continues to focus on debt repayment using both free cash flow from producing streams and royalties as well as undergoing a process to monetize between $40 million and $100 million of non-core, non-cash flowing assets from their portfolio by the end of 2024. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $27,437.57) rebounded over $27,000 as the drumbeat grows for SEC approval of all the spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Bernstein Research thinks crypto funds could jump from $50 billion in assets to a whopping $500 billion to $650 billion over the next five years.

The SEC has until mid-October to challenge the Grayscale ruling; at around the same time, the agency will also have to decide to approve or postpone applications from other fund companies that would pave the way for their own bitcoin products. If the SEC stops fighting, as I expect, the bitcoin funds could come to market as soon as early next year, and the Bernstein team expects the ETFs to get about a 10% share of the market capitalizations of bitcoin and ether. They wrote: “We expect a hockey stick adoption, with 2024 as the landmark regulatory year for approval of ETFs.”

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $20.15) will jump when a spot ETF is approved. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE- $10.92) has filed to convert to an exchange-traded fund, following in GBTC’s path. ETHE is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk:Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $82.46

Oil took a big hit after US stockpiles of gasoline jumped almost 6.5 million barrels last week, the biggest build in nearly two years, and OPEC+ left their reduced production targets unchanged. Gasoline storage is now back to the 5-year average following last week’s large build.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

Oil traders are playing with fire, because the week’s gasoline demand is upstream of dispensers. With wholesale gasoline prices actively dropping significantly, station owners are holding off on buying a full tanker of gasoline. That’s what the Energy Information Administration captures as gasoline demand – not what drivers actually use.

The global oil market is not ready for what’s coming. The US has, in essence, subsidized the rest of the world via Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and elevated crude exports. That’s all about to end as US crude storage gets tight. Russia’s move to temporarily ban gasoline and diesel exports is another bullish development as higher diesel and gasoline prices increase demand for crude oil from refineries amid rising margins.

Meanwhile, according to Reuters the US currently has just 17 days of supply left in the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. This is roughly half the historical average of ~33 days dating back to 1990. Oil prices are still almost 30% above the target price the US set to refill them. The SPR situation is one of the largest strategic weaknesses of the US.

Click for larger graphic

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $68.89) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $37.14) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $35.37) will benefit for years as copper demand is surging while copper supply remains tight. Consulting firm McKinsey estimates that annual copper demand will reach 36.6 million metric tonnes by 2031. Meanwhile, the industry will only produce enough copper to supply 30.1 million tonnes. That’s a deficit of 6.5 million tonnes, which means copper prices are headed higher. BloombergNEF predicts the supply crunch will drive copper prices more than 5x higher by 2050. FCX is a buy under $44 for a $65 target within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.

* * * * *

HOW TO “REFRAME YOUR BRAIN” AND UNLEARN CLICHES

* * * * *

Some key takeaways from Walter Isaacson’s biography of Elon Musk:

1. The only unbreakable rules are the laws of physics. Every other rule or restriction was put in place by a person, and people are idiots. Progress means questioning every rule and seemingly arbitrary guideline. If you aren’t re-writing the rulebook, then there’s no hope of ever beating the status quo.

2. Progress is not inevitable. History is replete with examples of knowledge that was gained and then lost, and of achievements that were remarkable but never topped. We went to the moon and then abandoned the space program, as if that was the best we could do. Technology will advance only when propelled by sheer determination.

3. Success is not inevitable, either. Failure is far more likely, but it’s also part of the process. Getting a rocket into space doesn’t happen without a few explosions. There were times when Musk was just one failure away from total loss, but he knew he’d never succeed if he wasn’t willing take big risks and suffer massive losses.

4. Optimization is everything. Efficiency saves time and money and can mean the difference between profitability and bankruptcy. But you’ll never know if you’re maximally efficient unless you question every process and procedure, no matter how seemingly small and insignificant. Just because something has historically been done a certain way doesn’t mean it must be done that way. Perhaps it could be done faster, and with fewer parts. The only limiting principle one should accept ties back to the first takeaway: The only unbreakable rules are the laws of physics.

h/t @SethDillon

* * * * *

Your planning to profit from the chaos Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 10/05/23. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $174.91) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $29.58) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $74.70) – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Meta (META – $304.79) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.38) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $9.97) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $44.70) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $15.76) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $21.29) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.64) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.45) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $1.55) – Buy under $6, target price $50

$20-for-$1
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.03) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $2.72) – Buy under $10, ultimate target $300
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $6.85) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Inovio (INO – $0.36) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $0.64) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.28) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.24) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $7.90) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($21.12 – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $22.19) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $24.73) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $16.83) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $22.89) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.11) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.05) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.31) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $4.43) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $29.44) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $27,437.57) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $20.15) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,618.99) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $10.92) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $68.89) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $37.14) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  EQT (EQT – $41.09) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.55) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $35.37) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $28.65) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $22.27) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $12.25) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $26.65) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.37) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.02) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $1.05) – Hold for buyout

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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