Dear New World Investor:

Richard Russell wrote his Dow Theory Forecasts until he died at 91 years old. I’ve always planned to write New World Investor longer, but I realized last week it may be as an every-other-week or even monthly letter instead of the grueling weekly schedule I’ve been on for the last 15 years. What happened was this.

As many of you know, my wife and I finally are starting the natural burial ground she has been planning for 10 years. My job is mostly to deal with lawyers, licensing, accounting, and keeping track of burials in compliance with the Oregon Mortuary Board. But I also wanted to be more directly involved, so I researched carefully and bought a Chinese mini-excavator to dig graves. The Typhon Terror XI one-ton mini-excavator has a 13.5-horsepower Briggs & Stratton engine to run a full set of hydraulics. It was the best choice.

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I had a Kubota tractor with a backhoe on my ranch 30 years ago, so I figured I’d be good to go after a few hours of practice. Instead, after a couple of hours I was moving a full bucket of dirt when it flipped over. I landed on my left side, totally blocking the seat belt release button, bleeding profusely from a head wound, and wondering if it was about to catch fire.

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My daughter got a knife, cut the belt, and we were off to the ER for various scans and pressure dressings. The bottom line: I’m fine, I never lost consciousness, no internal brain bleeds, and the bruising will be gone in another week or so. But…as my PCP said, the message may be that 83-year-old guys should slow down.

At the same time, I’ve been realizing that I’m following too many stocks and probably giving most of you way more information than you really want. I like to listen to a 30-minute brokerage firm conference presentation even if there’s nothing new, but I suspect most of you never click through the (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE) links I provide. You just want to know what to buy to make money, if and when anything about the story changes, and when to sell it. And you’d probably like a lot fewer choices, too. (Please comment below.)

So I think going forward I’m going to stick to the every-other-week cadence, with Flash Alerts as necessary (particularly during earnings season). I’m going to follow all the current recommendations until it’s time to close them, which could be quite a while with some of the biotech stocks. I hope eventually to get the current list of 45 recommendations down to a dozen or so.
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The government shutdown probably will last at least into next week, so we won’t be getting the September payroll guesstimate tomorrow. History shows that the market shrugs off shutdowns, and after some early shakiness on Wednesday, the S&P 500 hit another new record high over 6,700.

Since 1950, there have been 22 shutdowns, averaging 8.2 days. During the shutdown itself, the S&P ’s return has historically been flat. However, 12 months after the government reopens, the Index has delivered an average gain of 12.7%, with positive returns 86% of the time. The most recent shutdown, during President Trump’s first term, lasted 34 days – the longest on record. The S&P gained 10.3% during those 34 days and went on to return 23.7% over the following 12 months.

Click for larger graphic h/t PORTER’S JOURNAL

A government shutdown affects only programs funded by congressional appropriations, also known as discretionary spending – pale blue in the graphic below. Defense is mostly discretionary and accounts for around half of total discretionary spending.

Click for larger graphic h/t @neilksethi

The missing September payrolls number doesn’t matter much. All the data since the August report suggests demand for labor remains weak and is falling faster than supply is contracting. ADP reported private companies cut 32,000 jobs in September, the biggest monthly decline since March 2023 – 2 ½ years ago. Wall Street economists had expected an increase of around 50,000 jobs. August’s payroll number was also revised lower to a loss of 3,000 versus an initial gain of 54,000. The Fed will have little choice but to deliver another cut on October 29.

So far, they don’t have to worry about a recession. The third revision to June-quarter GDP lifted the growth rate by five-tenths to a 3.8% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) annualized pace, the strongest since 2023’s September-quarter gain of 4.7%.

They are still worried about inflation. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) is still 2.9%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. But they’re afraid the labor weakness will cause a recession (Spoiler Alert: It will), so the interest rate cuts are coming.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 1.3% in the last two weeks to a new all-time record today. The Index is up 14.2% year-to-date. AI-related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth, and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022. The top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 now make up nearly 39% of the index, the highest concentration on record.

Click for larger graphic h/t @charliebilello

If the AI revolution plays out like the dotcom revolution, as I expect it will, the underinvested have a few years of pain ahead:

Click for larger graphic h/t @LizThomasStrat

And there are a lot of “underinvested.” Goldman Sachs’ Sentiment Indicator, which measures US equity investor positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign investors, has rebounded to -0.6 from its low of -0.9 four weeks ago, but still is negative. Not one of the nine positioning measures in the indicator is in “stretched” territory. Goldman says that readings below -1.0 or above +1.0 indicate extreme positions that are significant in predicting future returns.

Click for larger graphic h/t @GoldmanSachs

When will we see that sideline money flow in? Citadel Securities’ Retail Equity client seasonal demand trends from the last eight years show that September is the weakest, October builds, and November builds more. And January is huge.

Click for larger graphic h/t Scott Rubner – Citadel Securities

The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7%, also to new all-time highs today. It is up 18.3% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 6.1% and is three points away from a new 52-week high. It is up 13.9% year-to-date as the new biotech bull roars. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 0.4% but is still up 10.2% in 2025.

This is not just a US bull market. Global stock market breadth is not just positive; it is relentless. A 73-day streak of more new highs than new lows marks the strongest run of worldwide participation since May 2021.

The fractal dimension is in about as solid an uptrend as you’ll ever see, with lots of energy to run further.

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Top 5

Changes this week: Removed FCX from Near-Term – see the writeup

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX ScyNexis – Resolution of GSK situation
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model latest estimate for September quarter real GDP growth is a strong +3.8% annual rate. The Blue Chip economists have not gotten the memo. Yet.

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While services have been growing, in spite of the stronger-than-expected consumer spending, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City shows the industrial heartland probably is in a recession already:

Click for larger graphic h/t @DiMartinoBooth

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Tuesday, October 7
QUIK – QuickLogic – All day – CEO Investor Summit at SEMICON West

Wednesday, October 8
MDNAF – Medicenna – 1on1s – Roth Healthcare Opportunities Conference

Thursday, October 9
SAND – Sandstorm – 11:00am – Shareholder vote on Royal Gold acquisition- Vote YES
Short interest – After the close

Wednesday, October 15
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $257.92) previewed a slate of new films in Apple Immersive from top global publishers, broadcasters, studios, and brands, including the Audi F1 Project, the BBC, CANAL+, CNN, HYBE, MotoGP, and Red Bull. The new films will launch alongside new episodes of returning Apple Immersive series exclusively on Apple Vision Pro in the coming months. But Bloomberg reported that the company has put its Vision headset upgrade on hold to focus on AI-powered smart glasses, copying Meta. AAPL is a Buy under $205.

Meta Platforms (META – $726.43) rolled out the next iteration of the Meta AI app, including an early preview of Vibes, a new feed in the Meta AI app and on meta.ai where users can create and share short-form, AI-generated videos.

According to Reuters, Meta is in talks with Oracle for a multi-year cloud computing deal worth about $20 billion to secure faster access to computing capacity for training and deploying AI models, in addition to Meta’s existing cloud computing providers. I have a bad feeling that most of the AI hardware investments will never earn their keep, but Meta should be the exception due to their advertising revenue applications. META is a Buy under $705 for a long-term hold.

Micron (MU – $183.65) reported a stellar August fourth quarter, with revenues up 46.1% from last year to a record $11.32 billion and pro forma earnings of $3.03 a share. Both the top and bottom lines were just above the consensus estimates of $11.16 billion and $2.86.

That brought them in at $37.38 billion in revenues for the year, up 48.9% from fiscal 2025, and $8.29 a share. On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and PREPARED REMARKS HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE) and post-earnings analyst call ((AUDIO HERE), CEO Sanjay Mehrotra guided the November first quarter to revenues of $12.5 billion ±$300 million, more than $1 billion in sequential growth and above the $11.83 billion consensus. He expects pro forma earnings of $3.75 a share, ±15¢, far above the $3.04 consensus.

Obviously, high-bandwidth DRAM for the AI revolution rolls on. NAND revenue is still down from last year, although up from its February second quarter trough.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

In both AI and traditional data centers, they now expect calendar 2025 total server units to grow approximately 10%, up from their prior expectation of mid-single digits percentage growth. This change in outlook is in part related to the growth of AI agents and the traditional server workloads agents initiate, as they execute tasks on behalf of users.

Sanjay said: “In fiscal 2025, we achieved all-time highs across our data center business and are entering fiscal 2026 with strong momentum and our most competitive portfolio to date. As the only US-based memory manufacturer, Micron is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the AI opportunity ahead.”

Well, yeah. The $100 billion investment from Nvidia with OpenAI to build data centers will need a lot of high bandwidth DRAM. But Micron has always been a trading sardine, not an eating sardine, although I think the difference this time will be how long the AI cycle lasts. I’m also watching Samsung’s efforts to get their high-bandwidth program back on the rails, because the pricing pressure from that will be a signal to us to exit even before the AI cycle ends.

The company ended the quarter with $11.94 billion in cash. They declared a quarterly dividend of 11.5¢ a share, but I’d like to see a substantial special dividend. MU is a Buy under $125 for a $200 target.

Nvidia (NVDA – $188.89) announced major advancements to accelerate robotics research and development, including the beta release of Newton, an open-source GPU-accelerated physics engine, managed by the Linux Foundation and co-developed with Google Deep Mind and Walt Disney Imagineering. It will be followed soon by GR00T N1.6, a new open robot foundation model with human-like reasoning skills. FWIW, I think robot development will be much slower than large language models due to the difficulty of training them.

Nvidia made a $100 billion investment in OpenAI, which OpenAI will use to buy AI semiconductors from…Nvidia.

Click for larger graphic h/t Kuppy

But this is more than a circular financing deal to pump up Nvidia’s sales. Analysts have been focused on two things: 1) the sustainability of Nvidia’s rapid earnings growth, and 2) what NVDA plans to do with the hundreds of billions of dollars of cash it is expected to generate in just the next few years. Analyst consensus estimates for NVDA call for the company to generate more than $200 billion of free cash flow by fiscal year 2028, versus just over $60 billion in the last fiscal year.

The OpenAI deal answers both concerns. Nvidia will invest a chunk of its future profits into OpenAI equity, giving it an ownership stake in one of the most valuable tech start-ups in history, while also strengthening a critical customer. OpenAI will to continue to buy Nvidia products and develop its own technology around them. OpenAI said the investment will let them deploy “at least 10 Gigawatts of Nvidia systems for OpenAI’s next-generation AI infrastructure.”

OpenAI will work with Nvidia as a preferred strategic compute and networking partner for their AI factory growth plans. The first phase of the investment will start in the second half of 2026 and scale progressively as OpenAI brings more gigawatts of AI compute capacity online by buying “millions” of graphic processing units (GPUs) from Nvidia. Every gigawatt of AI data center capacity is worth about $50 billion in revenue to Nvidia. NVDA is a Hold for a $180 first target.

Onsemi (ON – $48.14) is buying the rights to Aura Semiconductor’s Vcore power technologies, including the associated intellectual property (IP) licenses. The deal enhances onsemi’s power management portfolio and roadmap to address the complete power tree in AI data center applications, from grid to core. Sudhir Gopalswamy, group president of the Intelligent Sensing and Analog and Mixed-Signal Group of onsemi, said: “This acquisition underscores our commitment to solving the energy and efficiency demands of tomorrow’s AI data centers by offering a full range of differentiated intelligent power solutions. Integrating these technologies into our broader power management portfolio will enable us to deliver solutions with superior power density, efficiency and thermals and enable more compute capacity per rack.”

ON is a Buy under $60 for a $100 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $186.34) signed a $100 million sole source IRS contract…sole source because literally no other company can do what Palantir does. BofA raised their target price from $180 to a Street high of $215. PLTR is a Buy under $160 for a $200 first target.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $68.50) added to their multiyear partnership with Google to revolutionize commerce by signing another multiyear partnership with Blue Owl Capital to buy Buy Now, Pay Later receivables. PYPL is a Buy under $75 for a double in three years.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $65.75), OpenAI, and Oracle announced plans for five new AI data centers as part of the $500 billion Stargate project. New sites will be built in Texas, New Mexico, Ohio, and the Midwest. Total data center capacity is now projected to hit nearly 7 gigawatts within the next three years. This is part of Nvidia’s $100 billion investment in OpenAI and it will supply the chips powering these builds. SFTBY is a Buy under $35 for a first target of $50 and then higher as the discount to hard book value disappears.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $11.68) has a compelling product roadmap.

Click for larger graphic

ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Fastly (FSLY – $8.93) was named a 2025 Gartner Peer Insights Customers’ Choice for Cloud Web Application and API Protection (WAAP). Fastly received overall high ratings and is the only vendor to earn this recognition for seven consecutive years. The Gartner Peer Insights platform contains user posts, reviews, ratings, surveys, polls and other similar user-generated types of content and programs derived from Gartner Peer Insights content.

According to verified reviews from enterprise IT professionals who have implemented and integrated Fastly’s Web Application Firewall (WAF), Fastly received one of the highest overall ratings of 4.8 out of 5 stars (based on 130 reviews) as of July 31, 2025. FSLY is a Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.04) won a $1 million eFPGA Hard IP contract for a new, high-performance Data Center ASIC design that will be fabricated on an industry-proven 12 nanometer process technology. IP delivery for this contract, and thus revenue recognition, is scheduled for the December quarter. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.81) announced positive results from their Phase 1 trial of SCY-247, their second-generation triterpenoid antifungal under development for the treatment and prevention of invasive fungal infections with the potential to provide the therapeutic advantages of both an oral and IV formulation. SCY-247 was able to achieve target exposures at doses lower than ibrexafungerp, their first-generation fungerp licensed to GSK. There were no safety concerns or dose limiting toxicities observed.

More than 4,000 people were infected with the fungus Candidozyma auris (C.auris) in Europe between 2013-2023, the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) said in a report released on Thursday. The deadly, drug-resistant fungal infection is spreading rapidly through hospitals in Europe. Some 1,346 cases were reported in 2023 alone, a 67% increase from 2022. Nearly 60% of people who contract C.auris die within 90 days. Ibrexafungerp has been clinically proven to kill C.auris.

GSK has licensed it, but will they market it? They’ve just named a new CEO effective at the end of the year. His job is to bring to market more of the drugs in their late-stage pipeline to offset a coming loss of patent protection in April 2028 for their top-selling drug, the HIV medicine dolutegravir. Ibrexa is just sitting there, ready to go. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Never

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $36.42) said new data for Briumvi shows 89.9% of MS patients were free from disability progression after six years of continuous Briumvi treatment. During year 6 of continuous treatment with Briumvi, the annualized relapse rate was 0.012, equivalent to one relapse occurring every 83 years of patient treatment. Buy TGTX under $30 for a target price in a buyout of $40 or more.
Primary Risk: Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($3,880.80) closed above $3,600 on September 5; $3,700 on September 22; $3,800 on September 29; and will close above $3,900 real soon now. The government shutdown has turned it from a smart hedge into a momentum monster. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is runaway gapping. One of the most incredible things you’ll ever see:

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As tempting as it may be to take profits, do not interrupt a trend in progress. Remember that the goal is not to top-tick stuff, it’s to ride your winners until they show they are exhausted. But gold’s big upper trend line comes in right here. Respect this. Note just how far down the 200-day trades at.

Click for larger graphic h/t @TheMarketEar

The fractal dimension is as pretty as it gets. We’re getting lots of upside points per unit of fractal energy. This is turning into an early holiday party.

Click for larger graphic

Miners & Related

Dakota Gold (DC – $4.55) announced very positive assay results from a further 16 metallurgical drill holes included in its 2025 drill campaign for the Richmond Hill Oxide Heap Leach Gold Project. They currently have three drills operating at Richmond Hill and expect to drill 90,000 feet for the 2025 campaign. DC is a Hold for a $6 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Robert Quartermain doesn’t find enough gold. Secondary risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $12.40) was the subject of a good Seeking Alpha article: Why Royal Gold’s Sandstorm Buyout Creates Massive Upside.

The author agrees with me that the merger combines RGLD’s mature cash flow profile with SAND’s high-growth assets to take a company that now trades at a discount valuation to its peers through a post-merger multiple expansion with 20%+ annual upside. SAND is a Hold for the Royal Gold acquisition.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $120,094.01) fell two weekends ago as $1.5 billion in leveraged long positions in various cryptocurrencies belonging to more than 407,000 traders were wiped out. George Mandres, senior trader at XBTO Trading, said: “It feels like the market needs a breather, with some participants concerned that the DAT-trade is losing steam and there are no more meaningful inflows on the horizon.”

The DAT-trade is demand from Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies like Michael Saylor’s Strategy. Purchases by publicly traded digital-asset treasuries fell from 64,000 Bitcoin in July to 12,600 in August, and recovered to about 15,500 in September. The idea that these companies should trade at a big premium to the net asset value of their coins is, of course, nuts. Saylor took advantage of the lunacy to grab tens of thousands of coins, but the copycats are late to the party.

As shown by bitcoins rapid recovery to $120,000, the DAT trade is not necessary for further gains. The Fed cutting with inflation above its target, the weak dollar, and the government shutdown should be enough.

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $68.77) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $34.05) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $60.75

Crude slumped on reports that OPEC+ may accelerate the latest round of production hikes limits when they meet this Sunday, even though exports are not increasing. I expect the price reaction to be fleeting because oil markets have largely shrugged off OPEC+ headlines over the past few months.

Click for larger graphic h/t @roukayaibrahim

The must-follow energy analyst @ericnuttall was at the @EnergyAspects conference in London and wrote: “Everyone’s balances short-term are negative. yet the track record of consensus trades working out is very poor – i.e., EVERYONE is bearish
* * Everyone wants oil to go lower and then will buy, so will it? If oil cannot sell off now given poor anticipated supply/demand fundamentals, then when will it?
* * The short-term view is negative, yet big focus on dwindling OPEC spare capacity, flat ’26 exit/’25 exit production growth, and stronger than expected demand
* * China has the same balances as everyone else, yet they continue to buy (strong renminbi helping). Little insight given they are a very good poker player.
* * Builds have not been as large as expected (the ‘glutters’ have been wrong) and not happening in visible pricing centers. OECD inventories remain well below 5 year average and that is a key metric that OPEC is watching.
* * Interest rate cuts have historically been very bullish oil
* * Natural gas: if we get a normal Winter the setup for 2026 is very bullish; if a cold Winter then we may have to price out LNG exports to balance the market.

In summary, I wouldn’t say there are many outright bulls quite yet, but the bears seem to be going into hibernation.”

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $60.06) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $34.82) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.91) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $16.82) privately placed $600 million of 0.75% senior notes due 2031, convertible at $20.34 a share. This is very cheap money to fund the Phase 2 rare earth separations circuit expansion at the White Mesa Mill, and fund the development and earn-in expenditures, including project financing, required for the their Donald heavy mineral sands and rare earth project in Australia.

The highly respected CML Pro listed Energy Fuels as a New Speculative Company to Watch: Rare Earth (paywall). UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $38.87) basically said PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) is continuing the effort to recover the dead miners at the Grasberg Block Cave mine (GBC) in Indonesia. September quarter consolidated sales are expected to be approximately 4% lower for copper and approximately 6% lower for gold than July 2025 estimates. December quarter sales of copper and gold would be insignificant. They were previously estimated at 445 million pounds of copper and 345,000 ounces of gold.

The GBC ore body represents 50% of PTFI’s estimated proven and probable reserves as of December 31, 2024, and approximately 70% of PTFI’s previously forecast copper and gold production through 2029. The incident occurred in “PB1C”, one of five production blocks in the GBC, but resulted in damage to infrastructure required to support other production areas in the GBC.

Preliminary assessments indicate that the impacts are likely to result in the deferral of significant production in the near-term (fourth quarter of 2025 and the year 2026) as repairs are completed and a phased restart and ramp-up of operations commences.

Currently, PTFI expects the unaffected Big Gossan and Deep MLZ mines could restart operations by mid-fourth quarter 2025. In the first half of 2026, a phased restart and ramp-up of GBC could initially commence in two production blocks – “PB2” and “PB3” – followed by a third production block, “PB1S,” in the second half of 2026 and the balance of “PB1C” in 2027. This schedule would target the return to pre-incident estimates in 2027.

Under this phased restart and ramp-up scenario, which is subject to a number of factors and could change, PTFI production in 2026 could potentially be approximately 35% lower than pre-incident estimates. The previous production estimates for 2026 approximated 1.7 billion pounds of copper and 1.6 million ounces of gold.

I think the current price of FCX has fallen too low, considering their production from other mines and the likely effect on the price of copper of low production from PTFI. But we aren’t going to get anywhere near the leverage to higher commodity prices that I expected before this tragedy, so I am moving FCX to a hold with the expectation we will sell it in the mid- to high-$40s.
FCX is a Hold for the mid- to high-$40s.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.

* * * * *

RIP Jane Goodall

* * * * *

Mischa Maisky plays Bach Cello Suite No.1 in G

* * * * *

Your monitoring small nuclear reactors Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 10/02/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $257.92) – Buy under $205
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $110.11) – Buy under $115, first target price $150
  Meta (META – $726.43) – Buy under $705 for a long-term hold
  Micron Technology (MU – $183.65) – Buy under $125, target price $200
  Onsemi (ON – $48.14) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
  Palantir (PLTR – $186.34) – Buy under $160 for $200 first target price
  PayPal (PYPL – $68.50) – Buy under $75, target price $150
  Snap (SNAP – $8.06) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $65.75) – Buy under $35, target price $50+

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $11.68) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $77.00) – Buy under $75; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $8.93) – Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
  PagerDuty (PD – $16.26) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.04) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $41.97) – Buy for SpaceX

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $6.03) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA – $2.75) – Buy under $4, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $5.89) – Buy under $10, hold a long time for a 20x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $3.80) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $2.44) – Buy under $5, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.71) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.81) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $36.42) – Buy under $30 for buyout at $40+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($46.52) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $62.01) – Buy under $50, target price $75
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $73.71) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $36.64) – Buy under $35, target price $60
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $70.64) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $18.42) – Buy under $10, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $12.06) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $1.22) – Buy under $1, first target price $10

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $120,094.01) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $68.77) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $4,497.38)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $34.05) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $60.06) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $34.82) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.91) – Buy under $11; $24+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $16.82) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $55.76) – Buy under $70; hold for much higher prices ($100+)

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Corning (GLW – $83.01) – Hold for $70
  Nvidia (NVDA – $188.89) – Hold for $180 first target price
  Dakota Gold (DC – $4.55) – Hold for $6 target price
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $12.40) – Hold for Royal Gold acquisition
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $38.87) – Hold for an exit in the mid- to high-$40s

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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