Dear New World Investor:
Richard Russell wrote his Dow Theory Forecasts until he died at 91 years old. I’ve always planned to write New World Investor longer, but I realized last week it may be as an every-other-week or even monthly letter instead of the grueling weekly schedule I’ve been on for the last 15 years. What happened was this.
As many of you know, my wife and I finally are starting the natural burial ground she has been planning for 10 years. My job is mostly to deal with lawyers, licensing, accounting, and keeping track of burials in compliance with the Oregon Mortuary Board. But I also wanted to be more directly involved, so I researched carefully and bought a Chinese mini-excavator to dig graves. The Typhon Terror XI one-ton mini-excavator has a 13.5-horsepower Briggs & Stratton engine to run a full set of hydraulics. It was the best choice.
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I had a Kubota tractor with a backhoe on my ranch 30 years ago, so I figured I’d be good to go after a few hours of practice. Instead, after a couple of hours I was moving a full bucket of dirt when it flipped over. I landed on my left side, totally blocking the seat belt release button, bleeding profusely from a head wound, and wondering if it was about to catch fire.
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My daughter got a knife, cut the belt, and we were off to the ER for various scans and pressure dressings. The bottom line: I’m fine, I never lost consciousness, no internal brain bleeds, and the bruising will be gone in another week or so. But…as my PCP said, the message may be that 83-year-old guys should slow down.
At the same time, I’ve been realizing that I’m following too many stocks and probably giving most of you way more information than you really want. I like to listen to a 30-minute brokerage firm conference presentation even if there’s nothing new, but I suspect most of you never click through the (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE) links I provide. You just want to know what to buy to make money, if and when anything about the story changes, and when to sell it. And you’d probably like a lot fewer choices, too. (Please comment below.)
So I think going forward I’m going to stick to the every-other-week cadence, with Flash Alerts as necessary (particularly during earnings season). I’m going to follow all the current recommendations until it’s time to close them, which could be quite a while with some of the biotech stocks. I hope eventually to get the current list of 45 recommendations down to a dozen or so.
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The government shutdown probably will last at least into next week, so we won’t be getting the September payroll guesstimate tomorrow. History shows that the market shrugs off shutdowns, and after some early shakiness on Wednesday, the S&P 500 hit another new record high over 6,700.
Since 1950, there have been 22 shutdowns, averaging 8.2 days. During the shutdown itself, the S&P ’s return has historically been flat. However, 12 months after the government reopens, the Index has delivered an average gain of 12.7%, with positive returns 86% of the time. The most recent shutdown, during President Trump’s first term, lasted 34 days – the longest on record. The S&P gained 10.3% during those 34 days and went on to return 23.7% over the following 12 months.
Click for larger graphic h/t PORTER’S JOURNAL
A government shutdown affects only programs funded by congressional appropriations, also known as discretionary spending – pale blue in the graphic below. Defense is mostly discretionary and accounts for around half of total discretionary spending.
Click for larger graphic h/t @neilksethi
The missing September payrolls number doesn’t matter much. All the data since the August report suggests demand for labor remains weak and is falling faster than supply is contracting. ADP reported private companies cut 32,000 jobs in September, the biggest monthly decline since March 2023 – 2 ½ years ago. Wall Street economists had expected an increase of around 50,000 jobs. August’s payroll number was also revised lower to a loss of 3,000 versus an initial gain of 54,000. The Fed will have little choice but to deliver another cut on October 29.
So far, they don’t have to worry about a recession. The third revision to June-quarter GDP lifted the growth rate by five-tenths to a 3.8% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) annualized pace, the strongest since 2023’s September-quarter gain of 4.7%.
They are still worried about inflation. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) is still 2.9%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. But they’re afraid the labor weakness will cause a recession (Spoiler Alert: It will), so the interest rate cuts are coming.
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 added 1.3% in the last two weeks to a new all-time record today. The Index is up 14.2% year-to-date. AI-related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth, and 90% of capital spending growth since ChatGPT launched in November 2022. The top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 now make up nearly 39% of the index, the highest concentration on record.
Click for larger graphic h/t @charliebilello
If the AI revolution plays out like the dotcom revolution, as I expect it will, the underinvested have a few years of pain ahead:
Click for larger graphic h/t @LizThomasStrat
And there are a lot of “underinvested.” Goldman Sachs’ Sentiment Indicator, which measures US equity investor positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign investors, has rebounded to -0.6 from its low of -0.9 four weeks ago, but still is negative. Not one of the nine positioning measures in the indicator is in “stretched” territory. Goldman says that readings below -1.0 or above +1.0 indicate extreme positions that are significant in predicting future returns.
Click for larger graphic h/t @GoldmanSachs
When will we see that sideline money flow in? Citadel Securities’ Retail Equity client seasonal demand trends from the last eight years show that September is the weakest, October builds, and November builds more. And January is huge.
Click for larger graphic h/t Scott Rubner – Citadel Securities
The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.7%, also to new all-time highs today. It is up 18.3% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 6.1% and is three points away from a new 52-week high. It is up 13.9% year-to-date as the new biotech bull roars. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 0.4% but is still up 10.2% in 2025.
This is not just a US bull market. Global stock market breadth is not just positive; it is relentless. A 73-day streak of more new highs than new lows marks the strongest run of worldwide participation since May 2021.
The fractal dimension is in about as solid an uptrend as you’ll ever see, with lots of energy to run further.
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Top 5
Changes this week: Removed FCX from Near-Term – see the writeup
Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX ScyNexis – Resolution of GSK situation
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model latest estimate for September quarter real GDP growth is a strong +3.8% annual rate. The Blue Chip economists have not gotten the memo. Yet.
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While services have been growing, in spite of the stronger-than-expected consumer spending, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City shows the industrial heartland probably is in a recession already:
Click for larger graphic h/t @DiMartinoBooth
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Tuesday, October 7
QUIK – QuickLogic – All day – CEO Investor Summit at SEMICON West
Wednesday, October 8
MDNAF – Medicenna – 1on1s – Roth Healthcare Opportunities Conference
Thursday, October 9
SAND – Sandstorm – 11:00am – Shareholder vote on Royal Gold acquisition- Vote YES
Short interest – After the close
Wednesday, October 15
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $257.92) previewed a slate of new films in Apple Immersive from top global publishers, broadcasters, studios, and brands, including the Audi F1 Project, the BBC, CANAL+, CNN, HYBE, MotoGP, and Red Bull. The new films will launch alongside new episodes of returning Apple Immersive series exclusively on Apple Vision Pro in the coming months. But Bloomberg reported that the company has put its Vision headset upgrade on hold to focus on AI-powered smart glasses, copying Meta. AAPL is a Buy under $205.
Meta Platforms (META – $726.43) rolled out the next iteration of the Meta AI app, including an early preview of Vibes, a new feed in the Meta AI app and on meta.ai where users can create and share short-form, AI-generated videos.
According to Reuters, Meta is in talks with Oracle for a multi-year cloud computing deal worth about $20 billion to secure faster access to computing capacity for training and deploying AI models, in addition to Meta’s existing cloud computing providers. I have a bad feeling that most of the AI hardware investments will never earn their keep, but Meta should be the exception due to their advertising revenue applications. META is a Buy under $705 for a long-term hold.
Micron (MU – $183.65) reported a stellar August fourth quarter, with revenues up 46.1% from last year to a record $11.32 billion and pro forma earnings of $3.03 a share. Both the top and bottom lines were just above the consensus estimates of $11.16 billion and $2.86.
That brought them in at $37.38 billion in revenues for the year, up 48.9% from fiscal 2025, and $8.29 a share. On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and PREPARED REMARKS HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE) and post-earnings analyst call ((AUDIO HERE), CEO Sanjay Mehrotra guided the November first quarter to revenues of $12.5 billion ±$300 million, more than $1 billion in sequential growth and above the $11.83 billion consensus. He expects pro forma earnings of $3.75 a share, ±15¢, far above the $3.04 consensus.
Obviously, high-bandwidth DRAM for the AI revolution rolls on. NAND revenue is still down from last year, although up from its February second quarter trough.
Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha
In both AI and traditional data centers, they now expect calendar 2025 total server units to grow approximately 10%, up from their prior expectation of mid-single digits percentage growth. This change in outlook is in part related to the growth of AI agents and the traditional server workloads agents initiate, as they execute tasks on behalf of users.
Sanjay said: “In fiscal 2025, we achieved all-time highs across our data center business and are entering fiscal 2026 with strong momentum and our most competitive portfolio to date. As the only US-based memory manufacturer, Micron is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the AI opportunity ahead.”
Well, yeah. The $100 billion investment from Nvidia with OpenAI to build data centers will need a lot of high bandwidth DRAM. But Micron has always been a trading sardine, not an eating sardine, although I think the difference this time will be how long the AI cycle lasts. I’m also watching Samsung’s efforts to get their high-bandwidth program back on the rails, because the pricing pressure from that will be a signal to us to exit even before the AI cycle ends.
The company ended the quarter with $11.94 billion in cash. They declared a quarterly dividend of 11.5¢ a share, but I’d like to see a substantial special dividend. MU is a Buy under $125 for a $200 target.
Nvidia (NVDA – $188.89) announced major advancements to accelerate robotics research and development, including the beta release of Newton, an open-source GPU-accelerated physics engine, managed by the Linux Foundation and co-developed with Google Deep Mind and Walt Disney Imagineering. It will be followed soon by GR00T N1.6, a new open robot foundation model with human-like reasoning skills. FWIW, I think robot development will be much slower than large language models due to the difficulty of training them.
Nvidia made a $100 billion investment in OpenAI, which OpenAI will use to buy AI semiconductors from…Nvidia.
Click for larger graphic h/t Kuppy
But this is more than a circular financing deal to pump up Nvidia’s sales. Analysts have been focused on two things: 1) the sustainability of Nvidia’s rapid earnings growth, and 2) what NVDA plans to do with the hundreds of billions of dollars of cash it is expected to generate in just the next few years. Analyst consensus estimates for NVDA call for the company to generate more than $200 billion of free cash flow by fiscal year 2028, versus just over $60 billion in the last fiscal year.
The OpenAI deal answers both concerns. Nvidia will invest a chunk of its future profits into OpenAI equity, giving it an ownership stake in one of the most valuable tech start-ups in history, while also strengthening a critical customer. OpenAI will to continue to buy Nvidia products and develop its own technology around them. OpenAI said the investment will let them deploy “at least 10 Gigawatts of Nvidia systems for OpenAI’s next-generation AI infrastructure.”
OpenAI will work with Nvidia as a preferred strategic compute and networking partner for their AI factory growth plans. The first phase of the investment will start in the second half of 2026 and scale progressively as OpenAI brings more gigawatts of AI compute capacity online by buying “millions” of graphic processing units (GPUs) from Nvidia. Every gigawatt of AI data center capacity is worth about $50 billion in revenue to Nvidia. NVDA is a Hold for a $180 first target.
Onsemi (ON – $48.14) is buying the rights to Aura Semiconductor’s Vcore power technologies, including the associated intellectual property (IP) licenses. The deal enhances onsemi’s power management portfolio and roadmap to address the complete power tree in AI data center applications, from grid to core. Sudhir Gopalswamy, group president of the Intelligent Sensing and Analog and Mixed-Signal Group of onsemi, said: “This acquisition underscores our commitment to solving the energy and efficiency demands of tomorrow’s AI data centers by offering a full range of differentiated intelligent power solutions. Integrating these technologies into our broader power management portfolio will enable us to deliver solutions with superior power density, efficiency and thermals and enable more compute capacity per rack.”
ON is a Buy under $60 for a $100 first target.
Palantir (PLTR – $186.34) signed a $100 million sole source IRS contract…sole source because literally no other company can do what Palantir does. BofA raised their target price from $180 to a Street high of $215. PLTR is a Buy under $160 for a $200 first target.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $68.50) added to their multiyear partnership with Google to revolutionize commerce by signing another multiyear partnership with Blue Owl Capital to buy Buy Now, Pay Later receivables. PYPL is a Buy under $75 for a double in three years.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $65.75), OpenAI, and Oracle announced plans for five new AI data centers as part of the $500 billion Stargate project. New sites will be built in Texas, New Mexico, Ohio, and the Midwest. Total data center capacity is now projected to hit nearly 7 gigawatts within the next three years. This is part of Nvidia’s $100 billion investment in OpenAI and it will supply the chips powering these builds. SFTBY is a Buy under $35 for a first target of $50 and then higher as the discount to hard book value disappears.
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $11.68) has a compelling product roadmap.
Click for larger graphic
ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.
Fastly (FSLY – $8.93) was named a 2025 Gartner Peer Insights Customers’ Choice for Cloud Web Application and API Protection (WAAP). Fastly received overall high ratings and is the only vendor to earn this recognition for seven consecutive years. The Gartner Peer Insights platform contains user posts, reviews, ratings, surveys, polls and other similar user-generated types of content and programs derived from Gartner Peer Insights content.
According to verified reviews from enterprise IT professionals who have implemented and integrated Fastly’s Web Application Firewall (WAF), Fastly received one of the highest overall ratings of 4.8 out of 5 stars (based on 130 reviews) as of July 31, 2025. FSLY is a Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.04) won a $1 million eFPGA Hard IP contract for a new, high-performance Data Center ASIC design that will be fabricated on an industry-proven 12 nanometer process technology. IP delivery for this contract, and thus revenue recognition, is scheduled for the December quarter. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.
Biotech MegaShift
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.81) announced positive results from their Phase 1 trial of SCY-247, their second-generation triterpenoid antifungal under development for the treatment and prevention of invasive fungal infections with the potential to provide the therapeutic advantages of both an oral and IV formulation. SCY-247 was able to achieve target exposures at doses lower than ibrexafungerp, their first-generation fungerp licensed to GSK. There were no safety concerns or dose limiting toxicities observed.
More than 4,000 people were infected with the fungus Candidozyma auris (C.auris) in Europe between 2013-2023, the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) said in a report released on Thursday. The deadly, drug-resistant fungal infection is spreading rapidly through hospitals in Europe. Some 1,346 cases were reported in 2023 alone, a 67% increase from 2022. Nearly 60% of people who contract C.auris die within 90 days. Ibrexafungerp has been clinically proven to kill C.auris.
GSK has licensed it, but will they market it? They’ve just named a new CEO effective at the end of the year. His job is to bring to market more of the drugs in their late-stage pipeline to offset a coming loss of patent protection in April 2028 for their top-selling drug, the HIV medicine dolutegravir. Ibrexa is just sitting there, ready to go. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2026
Probable time of next financing: Never
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $36.42) said new data for Briumvi shows 89.9% of MS patients were free from disability progression after six years of continuous Briumvi treatment. During year 6 of continuous treatment with Briumvi, the annualized relapse rate was 0.012, equivalent to one relapse occurring every 83 years of patient treatment. Buy TGTX under $30 for a target price in a buyout of $40 or more.
Primary Risk: Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Never
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($3,880.80) closed above $3,600 on September 5; $3,700 on September 22; $3,800 on September 29; and will close above $3,900 real soon now. The government shutdown has turned it from a smart hedge into a momentum monster. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is runaway gapping. One of the most incredible things you’ll ever see:
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As tempting as it may be to take profits, do not interrupt a trend in progress. Remember that the goal is not to top-tick stuff, it’s to ride your winners until they show they are exhausted. But gold’s big upper trend line comes in right here. Respect this. Note just how far down the 200-day trades at.
Click for larger graphic h/t @TheMarketEar
The fractal dimension is as pretty as it gets. We’re getting lots of upside points per unit of fractal energy. This is turning into an early holiday party.
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Miners & Related
Dakota Gold (DC – $4.55) announced very positive assay results from a further 16 metallurgical drill holes included in its 2025 drill campaign for the Richmond Hill Oxide Heap Leach Gold Project. They currently have three drills operating at Richmond Hill and expect to drill 90,000 feet for the 2025 campaign. DC is a Hold for a $6 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Robert Quartermain doesn’t find enough gold. Secondary risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $12.40) was the subject of a good Seeking Alpha article: Why Royal Gold’s Sandstorm Buyout Creates Massive Upside.
The author agrees with me that the merger combines RGLD’s mature cash flow profile with SAND’s high-growth assets to take a company that now trades at a discount valuation to its peers through a post-merger multiple expansion with 20%+ annual upside. SAND is a Hold for the Royal Gold acquisition.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $120,094.01) fell two weekends ago as $1.5 billion in leveraged long positions in various cryptocurrencies belonging to more than 407,000 traders were wiped out. George Mandres, senior trader at XBTO Trading, said: “It feels like the market needs a breather, with some participants concerned that the DAT-trade is losing steam and there are no more meaningful inflows on the horizon.”
The DAT-trade is demand from Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies like Michael Saylor’s Strategy. Purchases by publicly traded digital-asset treasuries fell from 64,000 Bitcoin in July to 12,600 in August, and recovered to about 15,500 in September. The idea that these companies should trade at a big premium to the net asset value of their coins is, of course, nuts. Saylor took advantage of the lunacy to grab tens of thousands of coins, but the copycats are late to the party.
As shown by bitcoins rapid recovery to $120,000, the DAT trade is not necessary for further gains. The Fed cutting with inflation above its target, the weak dollar, and the government shutdown should be enough.
Click for larger graphic
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $68.77) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $34.05) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $60.75
Crude slumped on reports that OPEC+ may accelerate the latest round of production hikes limits when they meet this Sunday, even though exports are not increasing. I expect the price reaction to be fleeting because oil markets have largely shrugged off OPEC+ headlines over the past few months.
Click for larger graphic h/t @roukayaibrahim
The must-follow energy analyst @ericnuttall was at the @EnergyAspects conference in London and wrote: “Everyone’s balances short-term are negative. yet the track record of consensus trades working out is very poor – i.e., EVERYONE is bearish
* * Everyone wants oil to go lower and then will buy, so will it? If oil cannot sell off now given poor anticipated supply/demand fundamentals, then when will it?
* * The short-term view is negative, yet big focus on dwindling OPEC spare capacity, flat ’26 exit/’25 exit production growth, and stronger than expected demand
* * China has the same balances as everyone else, yet they continue to buy (strong renminbi helping). Little insight given they are a very good poker player.
* * Builds have not been as large as expected (the ‘glutters’ have been wrong) and not happening in visible pricing centers. OECD inventories remain well below 5 year average and that is a key metric that OPEC is watching.
* * Interest rate cuts have historically been very bullish oil
* * Natural gas: if we get a normal Winter the setup for 2026 is very bullish; if a cold Winter then we may have to price out LNG exports to balance the market.
In summary, I wouldn’t say there are many outright bulls quite yet, but the bears seem to be going into hibernation.”
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $60.06) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $34.82) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.91) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $16.82) privately placed $600 million of 0.75% senior notes due 2031, convertible at $20.34 a share. This is very cheap money to fund the Phase 2 rare earth separations circuit expansion at the White Mesa Mill, and fund the development and earn-in expenditures, including project financing, required for the their Donald heavy mineral sands and rare earth project in Australia.
The highly respected CML Pro listed Energy Fuels as a New Speculative Company to Watch: Rare Earth (paywall). UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $38.87) basically said PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) is continuing the effort to recover the dead miners at the Grasberg Block Cave mine (GBC) in Indonesia. September quarter consolidated sales are expected to be approximately 4% lower for copper and approximately 6% lower for gold than July 2025 estimates. December quarter sales of copper and gold would be insignificant. They were previously estimated at 445 million pounds of copper and 345,000 ounces of gold.
The GBC ore body represents 50% of PTFI’s estimated proven and probable reserves as of December 31, 2024, and approximately 70% of PTFI’s previously forecast copper and gold production through 2029. The incident occurred in “PB1C”, one of five production blocks in the GBC, but resulted in damage to infrastructure required to support other production areas in the GBC.
Preliminary assessments indicate that the impacts are likely to result in the deferral of significant production in the near-term (fourth quarter of 2025 and the year 2026) as repairs are completed and a phased restart and ramp-up of operations commences.
Currently, PTFI expects the unaffected Big Gossan and Deep MLZ mines could restart operations by mid-fourth quarter 2025. In the first half of 2026, a phased restart and ramp-up of GBC could initially commence in two production blocks – “PB2” and “PB3” – followed by a third production block, “PB1S,” in the second half of 2026 and the balance of “PB1C” in 2027. This schedule would target the return to pre-incident estimates in 2027.
Under this phased restart and ramp-up scenario, which is subject to a number of factors and could change, PTFI production in 2026 could potentially be approximately 35% lower than pre-incident estimates. The previous production estimates for 2026 approximated 1.7 billion pounds of copper and 1.6 million ounces of gold.
I think the current price of FCX has fallen too low, considering their production from other mines and the likely effect on the price of copper of low production from PTFI. But we aren’t going to get anywhere near the leverage to higher commodity prices that I expected before this tragedy, so I am moving FCX to a hold with the expectation we will sell it in the mid- to high-$40s.
FCX is a Hold for the mid- to high-$40s.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.
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RIP Jane Goodall
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Mischa Maisky plays Bach Cello Suite No.1 in G
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Your monitoring small nuclear reactors Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 10/02/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $257.92) – Buy under $205
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $110.11) – Buy under $115, first target price $150
Meta (META – $726.43) – Buy under $705 for a long-term hold
Micron Technology (MU – $183.65) – Buy under $125, target price $200
Onsemi (ON – $48.14) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
Palantir (PLTR – $186.34) – Buy under $160 for $200 first target price
PayPal (PYPL – $68.50) – Buy under $75, target price $150
Snap (SNAP – $8.06) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
SoftBank (SFTBY – $65.75) – Buy under $35, target price $50+
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $11.68) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $77.00) – Buy under $75; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $8.93) – Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
PagerDuty (PD – $16.26) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.04) – Buy under $10, target price $40
ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $41.97) – Buy for SpaceX
$20-for-$1 Biotech
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $6.03) – Buy under $6, target $30+
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA – $2.75) – Buy under $4, target $20
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $5.89) – Buy under $10, hold a long time for a 20x return
Editas Medicines (EDIT – $3.80) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
Inovio (INO – $2.44) – Buy under $5, hold a long time
Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.71) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.81) – Buy under $2.50, target price $20, then $50
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $36.42) – Buy under $30 for buyout at $40+
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($46.52) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $62.01) – Buy under $50, target price $75
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $73.71) – Buy under $60, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $36.64) – Buy under $35, target price $60
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $70.64) – Buy under $60, target price $100
Coeur Mining (CDE – $18.42) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $12.06) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $1.22) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $120,094.01) – Buy
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $68.77) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $4,497.38)– Buy
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $34.05) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $60.06) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $34.82) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.91) – Buy under $11; $24+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $16.82) – Buy under $8; $30 target
EQT (EQT – $55.76) – Buy under $70; hold for much higher prices ($100+)
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Corning (GLW – $83.01) – Hold for $70
Nvidia (NVDA – $188.89) – Hold for $180 first target price
Dakota Gold (DC – $4.55) – Hold for $6 target price
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $12.40) – Hold for Royal Gold acquisition
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $38.87) – Hold for an exit in the mid- to high-$40s
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Sorry to hear about your accident,glad to hear that you are ok
Pace yourself!
glad you suffered no long term consequences.
Welcome back from the alligator excavator! I have always doubted the stability of those small excavators because of their short wheel base and center of gravity. Thankfully, you survived that near miss incident and your daughter was near by to cut the seat belt off. I used to always carry a small folding blade in my pocket. Maybe I should go back to that? Those seat belts are great unless you are upside down in car crash or like you , pinned in where you can’t get it off! Great couple of weeks in the markets. MU up 25 percent (since 9/16/25, INTC up 43 percent, HOOD up 93 percent, OKLO up 71 percent and KGC up 36 percent.
I’m confused about SCYX. Is it ready to market? The first part of the write up says it passed Phase 1, which doesn’t make it ready to market. What am I missing?
Ibrexafungerp, the first generation, is ready for GSK to market for VVC, and the trials are done for GSK to apply for C.auris. The second-generation SCY-247 is 100% owned by SCYX and will move into a Phase 2 trial.
So, an investment in SCYX is a longer term play than I was initially thinking, and if GSK does decide to move forward, it would dilute the value of SCYX’s product.
GSk says they are moving forward with Brexafemme. There will be big royalties to SCYX. I expect the new CEO to also move forwrd with the hospital indications.
Welcome back. You were a lucky old timer! Yes, you follow too many market sectors, especially the bios…… they can give even the most experienced folks big heartaches. But to my personal feelings on you cutting back. I bought a lifetime subscription for weekly reports. I say stay off of the equipment and get back to the keyboard. Wishing you good health in the coming days M
Gary, you said what I was thinking – this isn’t a chat board, we are paying customers, and the agreement was a weekly newsletter. BUT, I’d be willing to accept every other week if the content was refreshed more relevant, and actionable.
Only 14 pages….! You are right concentrate on the slimmed down portfolios.
27 pages…my bad. I print on both sides. Sorry MM!
MM glad you are ok. “And you’d probably like a lot fewer choices, too” – yes right because we can’t buy everything and that’s why I asked you to start a Top 5 Near Term and long term which you did but you don’t ever seem to update it. Now you are cutting your reporting in half to every other week, as you seem to always be busy with your other projects. So, my request is twofold: (1) please no more cut and paste same stuff every other week (2) please research and provide insight and recommendations on the 3 biggest secular trends happening now that are the biggest to come along in decades of crypto, AI and data centers. Iv made more gains in the last 6 months than any time in my investing history – two weeks ago I finally sold AKBA and SCYX, both have been dead money for a long time, and bought BKKT and BTQ and already have 75% gains. We/I depend on your knowledge and experience to tell us about these trends and get in early – please give us that.
Too bad you didn’t have enough patience for AKBA. It will move hugely in 4 months at the latest, when Davita gets many patients on V. Even Q3 ER in a few weeks should see good news about the Davita pilot. Consider re-buying 31 days after your loss. SCYX is a dog–good move.
I’d rather MM give more timely updates rather than rehashing the same old week after week in radar reports.
speedy recovery MM – hope AKBA & SCYX bounce back and so do you.
You are amazing when it comes to the economy- why venture into adventure ?
MM–no, the fault is not with you. It is with Chinese products. The entire semi-free or free world should completely boycott and starve the CCP. You don’t do business with murderers. Same goes for Russian oil which is funding their murderous war in Ukraine. The extra costs for US and free world products would enable lower Dept of War costs as boycott would collapse these and other evil countries faster.
MM I have been wondering when you were going to slow down. I’m sorry about your accident and hope that you have as speedy a recovery as an 83-year-old can have. I’m OK with a slimmed down portfolio, you could start by trimming those with a 20%+ loss from your original recommendation price, it should help lighten the workload. Also, if you go to every other week and we are getting flash alerts, I’m good with it. You have to take care of yourself first, without you, there is no New World Investor.
My Feedback:
1) Feel better..slow down a bit. Try to pace yourself more. Hire somebody to do these kind of jobs man. LIFE is just too short !
2) Trimming back to a dozen or so stocks makes total sense to me.
3) Try a bi-weekly ( but not once a month report, too much going on for that).
4) Once you do get back to a dozen stocks consider going back to weekly.
5) PLEASE do not abandon the Biotechs, too much to gain with these and you are remarkably good at it !.
5) Lifetime member here and VERY pleased with my returns.
6) Stay well and prosper, so glad your daughter was there !
That was one or two very expensive holes. That excavator was what $20,000 and the hospital bill ? I know contractors who would have done it for a lot less! But maybe you had plans for future use of the digger? Anyway, just my 2 cents s worth. As for the RR, I have no issue with the 2 week timeframe and I cherry pick the recommendations anyway so that’s not an issue either. Many thanks to you for hanging in there in your 8 th decade. You need to get some kind of lifetime achievement award, just like Hollywood!
MM, I’m also glad you survived the accident. Proves that a Higher Being still exists.
As far as going forward, I’m totally in for a portfolio cutback. I’m in my 70’s and would prefer opportunities with nearer term potential. I’m especially drawn to Pharma, Biotech types. Higher risk, with higher return potential. Of course the bulk of my retirement funds are in more secure investments, so this is not for that.
I’m sure you have a wide range of readers with just as wide range of investment interests.
I find some of the ideas presented by fellow readers on this board to be quite intriguing and not very expensive which allows me to buy several and diversify.
Im also ok with an every other week report with Flash alerts when needed and new ideas introduced when identified.
Michael, not to be overly dramatic but
…many good years to you in the endeavor(s) and listen to your doc and that little voice in your (still in one piece, thankfully) head.
Glad you are ok. Those mini-diggers are dangerously unstable. Had you been seriously injured, an easy lawsuit to win. I enjoy the weekly Radar Reports, but the last couple bi-weekly reports have not been a problem as you have occasionally piped in with comments and answered questions.
NGENF had one helluva day, up 18% to $3.03 on 20x normal volume. Why? I have always said it would pop when a local Chicago TV station did a story about the news coming out of Shirley Ryan Ability Lab. It took a while, but Thursday night NBC’s Chicago had this:
https://www.nbcchicago.com/video/news/local/spinal-cord-treatment-medication-being-tested-in-chicago/3832930/
And Friday morning, Fox had this million dollar headline:
https://www.foxnews.com/health/paralyzed-man-walks-again-after-experimental-drug-trial-triggers-remarkable-recovery
Another nice gain for early clinical stage muscular dystrophy drug maker Satellos MSCLF as well.
For those wondering whether the NGENF rally will continue in the upcoming week, the NY Post has picked up the story
https://nypost.com/2025/10/03/health/paralyzed-man-walks-again-after-experimental-drug-trial-triggers-remarkable-recovery/
Will WSJ or NY Times be next?
While the drug itself is mentioned a few times throughout the article, I don’t remember ever seeing the name of the company. Wonder why?
To give you a chance to get in more cheaply…?
Can anyone shed more light on Palantir’s/Anduril mlitary communication system issue vulnerabilities? The SA article?
Palantir: “As Army’s Chief Information Officer Mr. Leo Garciga stated publicly, the security review process during the experimental phase of NGC2 functioned as designed, with findings “mitigated immediately” prior to field integration with the first division-level event, which proceeded successfully without delay. Palantir’s software, which maintains Impact Level 5 and 6 authorizations, provides the Army with visibility to rapidly conduct comprehensive security assessments across the NGC2 ecosystem. No vulnerabilities were found in the Palantir platform,”
Anduril: “As the Army has stated publicly, the issues identified in that early report have already been fixed. The recent report reflects an outdated snapshot, not the current state of the program. NGC2 is progressing through the normal process of iterative development, we find risks early, address them quickly, and harden the system before fielding. In fact, this week the program was awarded an Authority to Operate with conditions, formal recognition that those issues have been resolved while also outlining requirements that will guide ongoing work on the base platform and third-party integrations.”
Thank you, appreciate the response.
Get well soon Murphy, and thank you.
Glad you are good to go MM
Talk about digging your own grave I know BAD JOKE but still Funny
Glad you didn’t get hurt too badly. Better get the outrigger package.
MM – see link about Corning. This has been ine of your sticks followed since 2018, youve got it on hold, no mention of this AI fiber optic connection. Please help us stay current on the stocks yiu recommend. Honeztky it seems like you arent putting in the research like you used to, I shoukdnt be tge one finding this news on a stock you recoomend
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-unstoppable-semiconductor-stock-crushing-083200600.html
Steve – I’ve talked about the AI fiber optics many times as a driver for the stock’s price.
May 1: “Their earnings forecast includes…3¢ of temporarily higher costs associated with production ramps to meet increased demand for Gen AI…”
May 15: “Our upside variance to that growth rate inside the data center is driven by what the industry calls the scale-up of the network as hyperscalers create more capable nodes that move from less than 100 GPUs per node today to hundreds of GPUs per node in the future. Historically, an AI node has been within a single server rack.
“As hyperscalers scale up, AI nodes are shifting to stretch across multiple server racks. This causes the distance to link these GPUs within the node to get longer. This will cause the links to reach about 100 gigabits per second, what we call the electrical to optical frontier line, which roughly marks the point where fiber connections become more techno economical than copper.
“Now to help understand the size of this upside opportunity created by crossing that frontier, a single Blackwell-like node has more than 70 GPUs with more than 1,200 links using more than two miles of copper. As that node scales up, those two miles will be replaced by fiber connections, and those miles will grow over time as more and more GPUs are included in the AI node.
“Additionally, as data rates rise with more capable GPUs, our upside increases further. This opportunity alone is two to three times the size of our existing $2 billion enterprise business if we are successful technically. We’re working with key customers and partners as we speak today on making that future a reality.”
He mentioned that the two largest and lowest-cost fiber facilities in the entire world are both in North Carolina and they’re both owned by Corning.”
May 29: “Corning(GLW – $49.96) is collaborating with Broadcom (AVGO) on a co-packaged optics (CPO) infrastructure that will significantly increase processing capacity within AI data centers. Corning will supply cutting-edge optical components for Broadcom’s Bailly CPO system, the industry’s first CPO-based 51.2 terabit per second (TBps) Ethernet switch. This combination will deliver significant improvements in optical interconnection density and power savings, making it ideal for large-scale AI clusters. GLW is a Buy under $33 for a $60 target in 2025.”
I think the next big stock market shift will be a collapse of the AI stocks because the hyperscalers can’t possibly get a decent (if any) return on investment. I’m just trying to figure out when we need to bail.
Kuppy’s follow up post says the situation is worse than he assumed.
https://pracap.com/an-ai-addendum/
Eric Schmidt says everyone he talks to in the industry says, “AI capacity is being so overbuilt that there will be lots of companies suffering huge losses (except ours, of course).”
And as we learned in 2000-2002, even the ones who don’t suffer losses see their stocks collapse. If 2026 is another 1999, I don’t want to bail too early…but we are going to be selling everything AI at some point. I think Artificial General Intelligence is many years away, yet Open AI and SoftBank keep saying it’s right around the corner.
Kuppy is brilliant. Now I see why you subscribe. I did the same today. It looks like you are getting ready to exit NVDA. I don’t have that, but I still hold TSM from the days when you recommended it. TSM is my NVDA surrogate. I don’t recall you advised selling TSM which turned out to be your best long term pick. Thanks for that. Are you now cautious on TSM?
I missed the dot-com meltdown. I distinctly recall having a meeting at the firm where I worked where I was told, “You have to be in the market; it’s making great gains” and I responded, “I think stocks are overpriced. I prefer to be in real estate for now.” And that worked out well.
When it became evident that there was a housing bubble, I had enough sense to mostly get out of real estate but my stock holdings suffered. While I did find some nice bargains at the bottom (which Murphy famously called in March of 2009) which gave me 10-baggers over the next year, but I didn’t have the prescience to short financials like Michael Burry.
What I would love ideally is not just to get out of the market before the next crash, but to profit from the next crash.
Leap puts, but only ~10% of your assets
Big, rich lawyers are often in the stock and real estate markets, but when the small time barber pounds the table, that’s a sell signal.
So much to learn from Kuppy. Most important, big financial interests don’t want to spoil the party, so they do stupid things that don’t make rational sense. Trendy AI is being pushed to novices by gurus who want to continue the party. It is another Tulip mania. Railroads were life changing like AI, and Kuppy’s analysis is compelling. Almost every article on other investments in slick promotions concludes by saying that “cheap” (I say BS) AI stocks will produce better returns than the subject of the article. Tulips are pretty, AI has its uses which have to be limited in order to avoid wrong junk pseudo logic, but the climate of these bubbles is wisely seen by people like Kuppy with perspective.
Look at how AI was used to generate an ignorant CRL for CAPR. FDA was short staffed, or VP didn’t understand the validity of nonparametric statistics, so AI was used. This caused hardship for many CAPR investors. Approval of deramiocel will be delayed due to AI sabotage. CAPR’s financial situation is precarious, and the last thing they needed was that AI CRL.
Thanks, great find. “AI can’t count to 7.” The AI selected pictures were in 1873 while the US was still on the gold standard. Today with fiat money, the funding situation is far worse than the railroads in the 1800’s. Big booms, big busts.
In my mundane life, basic tech has caused lots of problems. Insurance fraud, claims sabotaged. For years, I’ve gotten paper renewal leases on my apartment. 2 weeks ago, I got an electronic renewal document in my email. I was willing to do it, but the website didn’t work on several computers I tried over a few days. I emailed the property management, got contradictory emails. They didn’t know what the FCK was going on. Finally I got the old fashioned paper lease renewal form in the mail. I walked the 3.5 mile round trip to their office yesterday and handed in the form. It was a nice walk which I do every 2 years to renew the lease.
Better to bail too early than too late.
Generally true. But better to bail a little late than way too early. That is the issue – is this September 1999 or February 2000?
MM – Glad to hear you are doing better. I would be OK with less frequent Radar Reports with Flash Alerts if news warranted.
Also, I’m nearing retirement age so not too interested in the buy and hold for a long, long, time stocks.
It seems there is almost always an opportunity to buy a biotech at a reasonable price closer to a buyout or big approval: AKBA, SCYX, and CAPR come to mind. I can sleep easier with a stock like CAPR having a likely resolution of FDA issues within a few months vs. a stock just having had a positive Phase 1 result.
Thanks for all the research you do.
Agree
Agree mostly. But neither SCYX nor GSK could make a profit on Brexa. 247 is in phase 1 trials. At best, SCYX is a wait and see for 5 years or more.
SCYX gets royalties in Brexa revenues at a near-100% gross profit margin.
True, but the stock has sunk because Brexa is a mediocre drug for VVC, only slightly better than cheap generic azole drugs. Big money can be made on drugs for serious conditions, but not for VVC. Why is GSK dragging their feet on getting trials done for serious infections? They probably agree with me that Brexa is a mediocre drug, or that other pipeline drugs are more promising. With next generation 247 in early trials, this is a long term speculation at current prices.
Mediocre? There is only one antifungal that actually kills the fungus.
Whether a drug kills or is bacteriostatic is not so clear cut. If bacteriostatic, the immune system can fight the infection. The bottom line is that the efficacy for resistant fungal infections was minimally better than much cheaper azoles. Brexa had mediocre sales, so SCYX had to relinquish it to GSK and just collect royalties. GSK put it on the back burner. The story of the manufacturing problem was complete BS–it is now about 2 years off the market. GSK also abandoned daprodustat, a HIF drug with efficacy at least as good as Vafseo although more cardiac risks. The only future for SCYX is with 247, but it is speculative and a long haul. SCYX is a poor choice among much better investments.
Hi Mike
Hope you’re ok, don’t be putting yourself in one of those graves too early, the aim was to dig them, not immediately fill one of them…
As for the idea for fortnightly, I’d be ok with that. I particularly like your macros economic viewpoints at the start of the newsletter which sets the scene which I’m assuming takes a lot of effort, so fortnightly would hopefully save you some work and free up some time.
As for click throughs, sometimes I do, but not often, although I do watch things like the NVidea YouTube presentations by Jensen when you link them, but I think that’s me as a tech guy rather than an investor although I will research some of the partner names he often mentions.
I started on your CTSL back in the 90’s and hope I’m still reading NWI for the next decade – take care.
Steve in New Zealand.
Next decade+ – that is the plan.
My favourite Warren Buffett saying is
“I want to be remembered as the oldest person who ever lived”
…we should all aspire to that….
Glad to hear you are OK after your fall. Makes sense to slow down a bit! Thanks for the great RR.
MM – I would be OK with a RR every other week, maybe with more frequent responses by you in the comments and or flash alerts. I do like your macro market/economy updates as it is my main source of that type of information. Reducing the number of holdings over time to 12 – 18 makes sense, focusing on the holdings with the best short term (?) potential. Please don’t stop posting your music videos and other fun links. I do click on those!
Steve–DECK can be traded according to tariff news. Now at $95, it is attractive. It depends on how long the China-US tariff war lasts.
MM – didnt you recommend RKLB at one time, whats your position now, they keeo landing new contracts seemingky faster than Elons rockets?
It’s a terrific company. I recommended taking a big profit because any delay in the Neutron program will kill the stock. I will recommend rebuying RKLB at much lower prices if Neutron is delayed or at higher prices if it’s not.
I don’t know if Neutron will be delayed, but it’s a huge program on a very tight timeline, and therefore a big risk right now.
Moonshots. ARRNF American Rare Earths LTD ran up 66 percent yesterday to .68 , stayed there until the close and then sold off. Just FYI
A guest essay in today’s NYTimes by a couple hotshot economists also says we are in an A I bubble
In financial markets, a bubble occurs when the level of investment in an asset becomes persistently detached from the amount of profit that asset could plausibly generate. While investors are always making bets on an unknown future, bubbles form when large swaths of investors continuously pour ever more into an asset, with seemingly little regard for how much it could earn and when.
A.I. investment fits that pattern. OpenAI says it needs at least $1 trillion to invest in data centers that provide the electricity, computing power and storage to train and run A.I., yet the company’s revenues are expected to amount to a mere $13 billion this year. And since the debut of ChatGPT, an easily accessible A.I. chatbot, in late 2022, the S&P 500 has swelled by nearly two-thirds, with just seven firms — all of whom have invested heavily in A.I. — driving more than half of that growth.
I guess I’m a little slow, but I’m missing the point.
Analogy. Don’t buy a business where you won’t get your investment back for many years. That’s because of high debt required to grow the business. Read Chris’ post of Kuppy earlier on this board. What gets me is the need to excessively hype something like AI as if it’s the greatest thing since sliced bread. To get high growth, you need big advertising and promotion. It is risky. I don’t trust the strategy and the snakes behind it.
SCYNEXIS and GSK Resolve Their Disagreement Related to the Restart of the Phase 3 MARIO Study :: SCYNEXIS, Inc. (SCYX)
Net neutral or slightly negative for SCYX. Negatives–Brexa might have better efficacy and profit potential for invasive candidiasis than VVC, but SCYX won’t participate in that. SCYX can still receive royalties for Brexa in VVC, but that’s not enough to get positive earnings. Brexa is a mediocre drug for VVC.
Positive–SCYX gets $22 million in severance pay, which will be needed to advance 247 from phase 1 trials.
On balance, SCYX is a money losing dog with uncertain long term prospects. Whatever spin MM can offer on this, there are far better investments.
MM and all – do some research on SANA, an early stage biotech that has succesfully implanted cells from one body to another, first apication among many will be curing diabetes by implanting cells that can make insulin. MM – your opinion?
Here are some medical facts to temper your enthusiasm. Most diabetes cases are type 2, a small minority are type 1. Type 1 used to be called juvenile onset DM. In type 1 there is a severe deficiency of insulin, often caused by an autoimmune disease destroying the pancreas. Type 1 may benefit from SANA treatment.
But in type 2 DM insulin levels are high, so SANA’s treatment is not appropriate. The problem in type 2 is insulin resistance. As part of my checkups for patients, I measure fasting insulin levels. Normal is 2-3, low. That means in a healthy patient with normal blood sugar, it doesn’t take much insulin to control the sugar. The earliest indication of pre diabetes is when the fasting insulin is above 6. That means there is mild insulin resistance. The blood sugar and hemoglobin A1c are still normal, but it takes more insulin to control blood sugar. Eventually the pancreas gets tired of putting out more insulin. The blood sugar rises, there is more demand for higher insulin, the pancreas gets more tired, etc. Then the insulin level drops but it is still high. Many docs give insulin injections, but this is wrong treatment because it doesn’t deal with the root cause–eating too much carbs and lack of exercise. The patient gains weight and the diabetes gets worse, requiring more insulin in a vicious cycle. The proper treatment is obvious–low carb diet and more exercise. The only drugs that I accept are the insulin sensitizers. Metformin is the safest of them. GLP-1 agonists like Ozempic and Zepbound help diabetes by producing weight loss which reduces demand for insulin. The jury is out about the long term effects of these drugs. When patients stop these drugs, they regain the weight. I doubt many patients will continue these expensive drugs long term. Already it is predicted that the medicaid budget will be busted much faster by broad use of these drugs. Insurance companies will have to dramatically raise premiums to cover these drugs. Or they will cut benefits and deny treatment for serious diseases like cancer and others. It is safer and smarter to do the right thing–eat properly and exercise more.
Beware of unethical researchers and pumpers who ignore the above paragraph. Beware of bad doctors who refuse to personally and repeatedly work with patients on diet and exercise. They are just drug pushers. Many nutritionists are trained on the politically correct low fat, high carb diets to suit the interests of grain producers. Many nutritionists are way overweight themselves. The system is corrupt.
ENVX makes Fast Company’s Top 10:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/enovix-recognized-fast-company-next-200100659.html
New World Investor for 10.16.25 is posted.