Dear New World Investor:

It’s been a week of economic news and earnings. The news paints a soft landing picture, although I still think we’ll see a mild recession no matter who wins the election.

September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS): Job openings fell more than expected from August’s 7.86 million to 7.443 million, the lowest level since January 2021. The August figure was revised down from 8.040 million to 7.86 million. There is is much less tightness in the labor market – just a gentle cooling of labor demand. Wage growth should continue to slow and give the Fed comfort that we won’t see wage-push inflation.

October Consumer Confidence: October Consumer Confidence was 108.7, well above the consensus for 99.0. September was revised up from 98.7 to 99.2. The increase in confidence was broadly based across all age groups and most income groups, and featured a substantially more optimistic view about future business conditions than the prior month. That is a supportive of consumer spending in the holiday season.

September quarter real GDP: GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8%, right on the final estimate from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model. Personal consumption expenditures increased 3.7% – their strongest growth rate since the March 2023 quarter and well above the prior 10-quarter average of 2.3%. That first estimate points to a strong economy and isn’t likely to ramp up urgency on the part of the Fed to rapidly cut interest rates to prop up growth.

Business Employment Dynamics: The March quarter net job gains of 500,000 were less than half the originally-reported 1,031,000. The third revisions for the March quarter totaled 802,000 – still well above the final number.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): The headline PCE rose 2.1% in September, compared with 2.3% in August, within shouting distance of the Fed’s 2% goal. But the headline on the graphic below is wrong. The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator is the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Core PCE inflation clocked in at 2.7%, the same level as July and August. It’s not dropping.

Next week, the Fed will be looking at resilient consumer spending, higher wages from a series of successful strikes, and a solid labor market. Chairman Powell will get his gradual approach to lowering rates. As I’ve been saying, 25 basis point cuts in November and December.

Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance

Coming tomorrow: October Payrolls: Bloomberg says +110,000: FXStreet says +115,000. Both are way below September’s +254,000, in part due to weather disruptions and the Boeing strike. A really terrible number could put a 50 basis point (½ percent) Fed funds rate cut back on the table for the November 7 decision, but I still think 25 bps will be what happens.

ADP’s private payrolls for October showed hiring rose at the fastest pace in a year, increasing by 233,000 – more than double the +105,000 consensus estimate. Payroll gains were broadly based by sector, region, and establishment size. Add that to government hiring and an upside surprise tomorrow seems more likely.

Regarding the market – does anyone study accounting any more? Say Microsoft spends $5 billion next year to buy Nvidia chips to build their AI computers. That’s $5 billion of revenue to Nvidia at a 75% gross margin and maybe a 50% net profit margin or $2.5 billion of income.

But it is not $5 billion of expense to Microsoft, or even $2.5 billion. Microsoft must capitalize that expenditure under Financial Accounting Standards Board and IRS rules, and depreciate it over (probably) five years. So it’s a $1 billion hit to Microsoft’s gross profit.

Taken together, Mag 7 profits have increased at least $1.5 billion – Nvidia’s $2.5 billion increased profit less Microsoft’s $1 billion expense. But all the headlines today were about how heavy AI spending is hurting Mag 7 profits, and both Microsoft and Nvidia closed down. Wha-a-a-t?

The right question to ask is what is Microsoft’s return on investment (ROI) on the Nvidia chips? The answer is “very high.” The reason the Mag 7 are pouring billions of dollars into Nvidia chips is they get their whole investment back in a couple of years and then enjoy huge profits for years to come. Wall Street analysts fresh out of business school who have never run a company or written a line of code don’t get it.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 1.8% since last Thursday thanks to today’s ridiculous wipeout (see Meta discussion, below). The Index is up 19.6% year-to-date, and the best six months of the year begin tomorrow:

Click for larger graphic h/t @RyanDetrick

The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.7% even after a record close on Tuesday and a record intraday high on Wednesday. It is up 20.5% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) slipped only 0.2%. It is up 8.7% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.0% and is up 8.4% in 2024.

The fractal dimension continued its consolidating ways, still with weeks away from being fully consolidated. This seems odd with the election about to be decided, unless we are in for another Bush-Gore cliffhanger while lawyers sort it out.

Top 5

Changes this week: Removed CMPS from Near-Term due to delay in top-line results

Near-Term – chronological order
SCYX – ScyNexis – Data releases and resolution of the manufacturing problem
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch in January

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, November 1
October payrolls – 8:30am – +115,000 expected. September was +254,000 – look for downward revisions to August and September
UUUU – Energy Fuels – 12:00pm – Earnings conference call

Sunday, November 3
Time change to Standard Time – 2:00am local time – Turn clocks back one hour until March 9

Monday, November 4
PLTR – Palantir – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
ABCL – AbCellera – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Tuesday, November 5
Election Day! – Vote for whoever, but vote!

Wednesday, November 6
VET – Vermilion Energy – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
GILD – Gilead – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
FSLY – Fastly – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call

Thursday, November 7
CDE – Coeur Mining – 11:00am – Earnings conference call
VET – Vermilion Energy– 11:00am – Earnings conference call
Fed Meeting results – 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm conference call

Friday, November 8
MDNA – Medicenna – Unspec. – Poster presentation on MDNA55 at the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) annual meeting
ABCL – AbCellera – 10:00am – Poster presentation at Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) annual meeting

Saturday, November 9
MDNA – Medicenna – Unspec. – Poster presentation on MDNA11 at the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) annual meeting

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $225.91) reported September quarter revenues up 6.1% from last year to a record $94.93 billion, ahead of the $94.52 billion consensus. They also beat on the bottom line with $1.64 earnings per share versus the consensus estimate for $1.60. CFO Luca Maestri said: “Our record business performance during the September quarter drove nearly $27 billion in operating cash flow, allowing us to return over $29 billion to our shareholders. We are very pleased that our active installed base of devices reached a new all-time high across all products and all geographic segments, thanks to our high levels of customer satisfaction and loyalty.”

iPhone sales rose 5.5% from last year to $46.222 billion. Mac sales hit $7.744 billion, up from $7.614 billion last year. iPad sales were $6.950 billion versus $6.443 billion. Wearables, Home and Accessories were a weak spot, down from $9.322 billion to $9.942 billion. The important Services group was up 11.9% to $24,972 billion.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management focused on the overall results, but they fell short of the consensus estimate for China sales. They just introduced the new, very powerful M4 family of chips to work with Apple Intelligence. A new MacBook Pro features the M4 chip. AAPL is a HOLD – I expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones.

Corning (GLW – $47.59) reported September quarter revenues up 6.6% to $3.73 billion, right on the $3.72 billion consensus estimate. Proforma earnings per share hit 54¢, 2¢ better than expected.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said their outperformance was led by Optical Communications, with 36% year-over-year sales growth to around $1.25 billion. That was driven by record sales in the Enterprise portion of the business, which was up 55% due to continued strong adoption of their new optical connectivity products for generative AI.

Display Technologies net sales climbed 4% year-over-year to about $1.02 billion. Net sales from Specialty Materials unit fell 3% year-over-year to $548 million. Net sales from Environmental Technologies fell 15% year over year to $382 million as expected, reflecting the impact of the Class 8 truck down-cycle in North America.

Click for larger graphic

They reiterated last month’s announcement that they are raising prices in Display Technologies and expect to deliver segment net income of $900 million to $950 million in 2025, and to maintain a net income margin of 25%. They also reaffirmed their operating-margin target of 20% by 2026 as part of the Springboard plan to add over $3 billion in annualized sales by 2026 without adding any expenses. If all that drops to the bottom line, that’s another $3.50 a share.

Click for larger graphic

AT&T signed a $1.0 billion, multiyear deal with Corning to buy advanced fiber, cable, and connectivity solutions to expand its high-speed internet services. Corning’s product are designed to comply with the Build America, Buy America requirements of the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment program. With the US wireless market facing a slowdown, telecom companies likes AT&T and Verizon have doubled down on their high-speed internet businesses, an area that has long been dominated by broadband companies like Comcast. AT&T has been a Corning customer for decades.

Click for larger graphic

For the December quarter, management guided for year-over-year core sales up 14.7% to $3.75 billion versus the $3.65 billion consensus. Core earnings will grow faster than sales, up 41% to a range of 53¢ to 57¢ versus the 52¢ consensus. Wall Street liked the report and moved the stock up. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2025 .

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $88.82) reports next Wednesday. The consensus expectation bar is low: revenues up 3.0% from last year to $6.79 billion with earnings of $1.55, far below last year’s $2.29. Guidance is equally low for December quarter revenues of $7.12 billion and $1.56. Wall Street forecasts 2025 revenues to be up only 1.2% to $28.05 billion, which seems unreasonably low to me. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $80 for a first target of $120.

Meta Platforms (META – $567.58) reported a very good September quarter, with revenues up 8.9% from last year to $40.59 billion, just ahead of the $40.31 billion estimate. Earnings really shined as Zuckerberg’s “Year of Efficiency” is paying off. They reported GAAP earnings of $15.69 billion or $6.03 per share, clobbering the $5.29 estimate.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

Family daily active people (DAP) was 3.29 billion on average for September 2024, an increase of 5% year-over-year. Ad impressions increased by 7% YoY and the average price per ad increase by 11%.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

During the quarter, Meta bought back $8.86 billion of stock and paid $1.26 billion of dividends. They finished the quarter with $70.9 billion of cash and $28.82 billion of long-term debt.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE and HERE), Zuckerberg said Meta AI has passed the 500 million user mark, barely a year after the AI assistant was launched. AI improvements in its feed and video recommendations have led to an 8% increase in time spent on Facebook and a 5% increase for Instagram so far this year. Advertisers are also taking advantage of the company’s AI tools, with more than 15 million ads created with generative AI in September alone.

They guided the December quarter to $45 billion to $48 billion in revenues, above Wall Street’s expectations for $46.09 billion. Great news so far, right? But then they said they expect significant capital expenditure growth in 2025. Given that, along with the back-end weighted nature of their 2024 capital spending, they expect a significant acceleration in infrastructure expense growth in 2025 as they recognize higher depreciation growth and operating expenses of their expanded infrastructure. That is what caused the stock to drop – the “terrible” news that a company that will do $180 billion in revenues has opportunities to grow 15% to 20% a year. Give me a break! META is a Hold – I expect to move back to Buy, but I’m not going to get my under $400 entry point.

Palantir (PLTR – $41.56) reports September quarter results Monday after the close. The Street is looking for $701.13 billion in revenues and 9¢ earnings per share. They expect December quarter guidance for $741.44 in revenues and another 9¢. Palantir usually beats by a penny on the bottom line. PLTR is a Buy under $22 for a $100+ target.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $79.30) reported a good September quarter, guided conservatively for the December period, and took a hit to the stock price. I have never understood why Wall Street analysts think relatively new CEOs wouldn’t set a low bar that’s easy to beat.

Revenues increased 5.4% from last year to $7.80 billion, just under the $7.89 million consensus estimate. Pro forma earnings per share of $1.20 solidly beat the $1.07 estimate. Total payment volume increased an excellent 9% to $422.6 billion, while payment transactions increased 6% to 6.6 billion. Active accounts increased 0.9% to 432 million, up from 429.4 million at the end of June.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Alex Chriss said the all-important transaction margin dollars increased 8% to $3.7 billion –the turnaround is underway. The Street expected only 4% growth.

Click for larger graphic

Wall Street has been worried about the impact of recent price hikes at Braintree, PayPal’s subsidiary. It processes transactions for Uber, AirBnB, DoorDash, Spotify, and others. When contracts come up for renewal, PayPal has raised prices to improve transaction margins and profitability. Analysts worried the re-pricing initiatives might lower payment volumes and revenue as competitors like Adyen and Stripe pick up more business.

But Alex said: “We’re making solid progress on our initiative to price our services in a way that reflects the current value we bring to our merchants. This is now the second consecutive quarter in more than two years that Braintree is meaningfully contributing to transaction margin dollar growth. We’re having very constructive conversations with our merchants focused on ways we can enable strategic growth opportunities that drive long-term upside for both of us.

“Sometimes that comes with a re-look at our contracts and a re-look at the partnership, but I think we’re bringing more to the table now. And so the conversations we’re having with these merchants is we’re innovating, we’re bringing Fastlane, we’re bringing ads platform. We’re bringing additional value-added services that allow us to have a healthier, stronger conversation about where we’re going.”

The conservative guidance was for December quarter revenue growth in the low single digits (consensus +5% to $8.44 billion) with GAAP earnings of $1.03 to $1.07 per share (Consensus $1.10). They raised full-year earnings guidance for the third time this year to $3.92 to $3.96 a share.

Click for larger graphic

In the quarter, they had free cash flow of $1.4 billion and ended the quarter with $16.2 billion in cash against $12.4 billion in debt. During the quarter they bought back 28 million shares of stock for $1.8 billion. PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.

Snap (SNAP – $12.16) reported a snappy – sorry – September quarter with revenues up 15.1% to $1.37 billion and pro forma earnings of 8¢ a share, nearly tripling the 3¢ consensus estimate. Daily Active Users increased 9.1% year-over-year to 443 million.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

Total time spent watching content increased 25% year-over-year. Snapchat+ reached 13 million subscribers, more than doubling year-over-year. Spotlight reached more than 500 million monthly active users on average in the quarter, an increase of 21% year-over-year.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and INVESTOR LETTER HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE and HERE), CEO Evan Spiegel said: “Our investments in AI and AR are powering new creative experiences for our community and driving innovation across our advertising platform, underpinning our long-term growth opportunity. Ongoing momentum with our direct response products and growth in small- and medium-size businesses contributed to total active advertisers more than doubling year-over-year.”

He said they are in the early stages of experimenting with two new ad formats, Sponsored Snaps and Promoted Places, which will help drive revenue growth further. For the December quarter, they guided to revenue of $1.510 billion to $1.560 billion, implying growth of 11% to 15%. The consensus estimate was at $1.56 billion. They expect daily average users to be about 451 million in the December quarter.

They finished September with $3.2 billion in cash and authorized a $500 million buyback of common stock over the next 12 months. SNAP is a Buy under $11 for a $17+ target.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $9.01) reported a very good quarter and promptly took advantage of the stock pop to raise $100 million. September quarter revenues increased 2060.0% from last years near-nothing to $4.32 million, slightly ahead of the consensus for $4.11 million. The pro forma loss of 17¢ a share was 3¢ better than the 20¢ loss expected. A leading smartphone OEM signed a development agreement for qualification and mass production of EX-1M batteries in late 2025. That’s the first of many I expect because competitors cannot afford to let another company offer much longer battery life.

Click for larger graphic

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS HERE and
SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), for the December quarter, they guided for revenue between $8.0 million and $10.0 million with a pro forma loss of 15¢ to 21¢. The consensus was at only $7.37 million with a 29¢ loss.

CEO Raj Talluri said: “Our analysis of recent smartphone launches highlights a critical shortfall in conventional batteries. Energy density improvements in flagship devices released in 2024 have stagnated, with a mere 1% year-over-year increase. We believe this trajectory is insufficient to meet escalating demands of modern devices, especially those powered by AI.

“In contrast, our battery technology roadmap offers a generational leap in energy density. With our Malaysia Fab now gearing up for production, we are in a full sprint to commercialize this transformative technology and meet the pressing needs of the industry. Our focus on rapid execution will enable us to offer substantial benefits to our customers and consumers alike, positioning us as a leader in next-generation battery solutions.”

Click for larger graphic

Raj said they are on track to further reduce cash consumption by leveraging the new Malaysia operation, which will provide a cash runway into 2026. But after the stock popped 20% in response to the quarter and the smartphone contract, they sold 10.42 million shares for gross proceeds of $100 million. The stock was at $10.83 on Tuesday before the earnings announcement, popped as high as $11.87, and closed today at $9.01 after the offering.

So now Enovix has its first major contract in hand, a fortress balance sheet, and …51.8 million of its shares sold short. What’s not to like? ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Fastly (FSLY – $7.23) reports their September quarter results next Wednesday. The forecast is for revenues up only 3.8% from last year to $131.88 million with a 6¢ per share loss, the same as last year. FSLY is a Buy up to $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $2.73) reports on Monday. Not that anyone cares, but revenues are supposed to come in at $7.95 million with a 15¢ loss. As always, it will be comments on partnered programs that move the stock. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
   Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.76) reported a September quarter loss of $38.5 million or 56¢ a share, in line with estimates. The stock fell 23.1% today after they delayed the top line 6-week data on the COMP005 Phase 3 trial from this quarter to the June 2025 quarter due to slow patient accrual. They also delayed the COMP006 Phase 3 readout from mid-2025 to after the 26-week time print in the second half of 2026. That delay they attributed to “the increased regulatory scrutiny on functional unblinding, so the company has decided to shift the data release for COMP006 until after the 26-week time point and the completion of the blinded portion has been reached for all patients to protect against the risk of unblinding.”

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said their non-COMP360 preclinical efforts will be stopped and they are exploring a potential externalization of their digital health tools. In addition, they announced a 30% reduction in staff, including the senior management positions of Chief Communications Officer and Chief Legal Officer, to focus all efforts on the COMP360 trials and save cash.

December quarter net cash used in operating activities is expected to be in the range of $37 million to $43 million. The full-year 2024 net cash used in operating activities is expected to be in the range of $114 million to $120 million. At the end of September they had $207 million in cash, which is expected to be sufficient to fund operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements at least into 2026. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($2,756.30) hit a new all-time record Wednesday as the dollar weakened a bit, election uncertainty increased, and geopolitical tensions grew. It’s interesting that the benchmark NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI), which tracks the shares of gold mining companies, hit an all-time high in 2011. Today, although the price of gold is more than double what it was in 2011 and sitting at an all-time high, the HUI is about half the level as it was back then. That doesn’t make sense. And it’s a market anomaly that I think will go away soon, as one of the foundational rules of life, money, and the universe – mean reversion – kicks in. That’s behind my recent recommendation of Dakota Gold.

Central banks reported record gold acquisitions in the March quarter and have been a key driver behind gold’s rise. According to Bank of America, gold has overtaken the euro as the world’s second-largest reserve asset, trailing only the US dollar. At last week’s London Bullion Market Association conference, delegates projected gold prices to reach $2,941 an ounce and silver to hit $45 within the next year.

The fractal dimension clearly is not consolidating. Even though the uptrend has resumed, it’s either on fumes or we are witnessing a generational bull market.

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.44) reports September quarter results next Thursday morning. Revenues are forecast at up 11.5% to $287.1 million with earrings of 7¢ a share, in a wide range from 2¢ to 10¢. CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Dakota Gold (DC – $2.19) is a Buy under $2.50 for a $6 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Robert Quartermain doesn’t find enough gold. Secondary risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $69,941.29) went over $73,700 as the spot exchange-traded funds bought 47,000 coins in the last few days and about $175 million of shorts were liquidated. As bitcoin backed off today, ether fell 5.8%.

Standard Chartered Bank said there’s a risk of position unwinding ahead of the US election due next week. But they said a dip would just be a temporary setback, with prices poised to rise following the election regardless of the results. They think a Republican sweep would provide the most bullish scenario for digital assets, and set a year-end bitcoin price target of $125,000. Trading has picked up with the ETF’s daily trading volume topping $3.35 billion on October 29, the highest since April 1.

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $39.78) set a record on October 30 with the largest single-day inflow of $875 million since its inception in January. This record inflow surpassed the previous high of $849 million set by IBIT in March and marked the 13^th consecutive day of positive flows for the fund. Over this remarkable run, the fund has raked in roughly $4.08 billion of new investments, as institutional appetite for Bitcoin exposure via traditional financial instruments continues growing. IBIT remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $70.53

Oil dropped after Israel didn’t bomb Iran’s oil fields in their retaliatory strike last weekend, and then rose as it occurred to traders that Iran has to either lose serious face or strike back…and if they strike back Israel will up the ante by taking out their oil fields. Hey. Hussein Salami – attacking Israel from Iraq won’t fool them.

Click for larger graphic h/t @chigrl

Last week, crude storage fell 0.515 million barrels and gasoline fell 2.71 million barrels.

“US gasoline stockpiles hit 2-year low on stronger demand, EIA says
(Reuters) – U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week to a two-year low on strengthened demand, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday, while crude inventories also posted a surprise drawdown as imports slipped. Gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, rose to 9.2 million barrels per day from 8.8 million bpd a week earlier and marked its highest level since the week ending Oct. 4.”

The EIA has been “surprised” on robust gasoline demand going on two years now. Look how one-sided the monthly revisions are to the weekly estimates that have kept a lid on oil prices.

Click for larger graphic h/t @shariqrtrs

Global oil inventories are very low:

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

While demand is breaking higher with total implied demand at a 5-year high for this time of the year.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

OPEC+ leaked that they are considering delaying their December oil output hike. I think $70 oil will be a fond memory after the election.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – no trades – June 2026 closed at $66.69) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $37.13) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.33) will release September quarter results after the close next Wednesday, with a conference call Thursday morning. The Street expects revenues to be down 2.2% from last year to $359.16 million, but earnings to be up from 25¢ to 32¢. December quarter guidance is pegged at $372.9 million and 37¢. VET is a buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.02) will announce September quarter results tomorrow with a conference call at noon. There are two analysts publishing on the stock. The bull expects $9.3 million in revenues and a loss of 5¢ a share. The bear expects only $900,000 in revenues and – get this – the same 5¢ per share loss. Somebody’s not paying attention. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

EQT (EQT – $36.54) got a table-pounding Buy recommendation with a $50 one-year target from BofA. They are bullish on gas because demand is increasing from the utility sector as the expanding AI data center sector has a voracious appetite for power. They wrote: “We believe EQT is a compelling investment opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the structural shift taking place in natural gas markets. The often discussed LNG buildout that could add 16% to domestic demand and tether US fundamentals to the global market is finally here and evident in a contango sloped forward curve… At $3.20 baked in, EQT is below fair value versus our $3.75 base case, and there’s room for appreciation from deleveraging that opens a path to a lower cost of capital. Separately, a strong balance sheet likely allows EQT to cut hedges and opt for more commodity exposure, making it a preferred name for gas exposure.”

EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

* * * * *

RIP Ward Christensen

Click for larger graphic h/t This is True

From Honorary Unsubscribe: “In January 1978, the Great Blizzard of 1978 hit Chicago, and Christensen and his friend Randy Seuss were stuck at home. Christensen and Seuss talked on the phone, and Christensen suggested there should be an automated computer system where someone could use a modem to dial up a central computer to upload or download files, which could use his XMODEM file transfer protocol. There wasn’t such a thing, so they decided to build it. Seuss took on building the S-100 hardware components, and Christensen took on the software. “I thought of it being for the club,” Christensen said. “Randy said that just we two should do it — ‘committee projects’ just don’t go anywhere. So we just did it.” It only took three weeks before it went live on February 16, 1978, as CBBS — the Computerized Bulletin Board System. Seuss said it should be at his house since he lived in the middle of Chicago — a free phone call from anywhere else in the city. It was the first-ever computer BBS.”

Click for larger graphic h/t This is True. I highly recommend a free or paid subscription to This is True.

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The Most Popular Wedding Song

That won Whitney a Grammy in 1988. Second place was ABBA’s 1976 Dancing Queen.

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Your still saving wisdom Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 10/31/24. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Corning (GLW – $47.59) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $88.82) – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Palantir (PLTR – $41.56) – Buy under $22, target price $100+
  PayPal (PYPL – $79.30) – Buy under $68, target price $136
  Snap (SNAP – $12.16) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $29.87) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $9.01) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $60.13) – Buy under $60; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $7.23) – Buy under $14; 3- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $18.06) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.42) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $10.70) – Buy under $13, target price $30+

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $2.73) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.66) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.76) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $2.90) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $5.28) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $1.70) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.36) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $25.06) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($32.85) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $31.47) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $39.68) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $25.71) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $38.66) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.44) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  Dakota Gold (DC – $2.19) – Buy under $2.50, target price $6
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $7.38) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.40) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.05) – Buy under $10, target price $2538.87
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $44.23) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $69,941.29) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $39.78) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,508.14) – Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $19.02) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – no trades; June closed at $66.69) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $37.13) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.33) – Buy under $11; $24 target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.02) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $36.54) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $45.02) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $225.91) – Expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones
  Meta (META – $567.58) – Expect to move back to Buy under $400

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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