Dear New World Investor:

The Fed cut the Fed funds rate a quarter-point (25bps) today, as I expected. They removed language from the September statement that they have “gained greater confidence” that inflation was moving towards their 2% target. Traders have begun to trim bets for another quarter-point cut in December and the number of reductions expected next year.

Last Friday’s very weak October payrolls number, +12,000, was far below the +110,000 estimate. It was negatively affected to an unknown degree by hurricanes and strikes, but so was the consensus estimate. In other words, it was a useless number.

September was revised down from +254,000 to +223,000 and August was cut another 81,000 jobs. The message to the Fed is that the monthly numbers are pretty much useless, this one more than most.

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Stocks jumped to record highs after Trump’s election with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ending Wednesday and today at record levels. Investors expect lower taxes and deregulation, but higher inflation and interest rates. The Treasury 10-year fell as yield hit a four-month high of 4.479%. Bitcoin hit a record high over $76,000. Many investors, including me, thought the race would be much closer and the process could be drawn out before a victor was declared. That was wrong, which resulted in a risk-on day Wednesday.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 4.7% since last Thursday, including its biggest one-day percentage gain since November 2022. The Index is up 25.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite shot up 6.5%, including its biggest daily percentage gain since February. It is up 28.4% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 6.1% as biotech benefited from the risk-on sentiment. It is up 15.3% year-to-date.

The small-cap Russell 2000 soared 8.5%, including a 5.84% gain on Wednesday, its biggest surge since November 2022, to a three-year high. It is up 17.6% in 2024. Domestically concentrated stocks will benefit from easier regulations, lower taxes, and less exposure to import tariffs.

SentimenTrader noted that in the six months after past presidential elections going back to 1944, small caps were the leaders nine times, including in the wake of each of the past three presidential elections.

Click for larger graphic h/t @sentimentrader

The fractal dimension certainly halted its consolidation with Wednesday’s explosion, but one week does nor make a new trend. The odds are we see more volatility ahead in both directions to get fully consolidated.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
SCYX – ScyNexis – Data releases and resolution of the manufacturing problem
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch in January

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates another quarter of decent real GDP growth to finish the year.

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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, November 8
MDNA – Medicenna – Unspec. – Poster presentation on MDNA55 at Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) annual meeting
ABCL – AbCellera – 10:00am – Poster presentation at Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) annual meeting
SAND – Sandstorm – 11:30am – Earnings conference call

Saturday, November 9
MDNA – Medicenna – Unspec. – Poster presentation on MDNA11 at Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) annual meeting

Monday, November 11
Veterans Day
From This is True:
“Catherine Banks was set to fly on Delta Airlines from San Francisco International Airport when the flight attendant demanded, “You need to get off the plane,” and marched her back to the jet bridge. Confused, Banks asked him what the problem was. “He said “That shirt you’re wearing is threatening’,” Banks said. “Are you kidding me?” she responded. “I’ve been in the Marine Corps for 22 years and worked for the Air Force for 15 years.” He replied, “I don’t care about your service. The only way you’re going to get back on the plane is if you take it off right now.” And he was going to watch her do it, even though she wasn’t wearing a bra. She turned away from him to change into a sweatshirt, and he let her sit down again — in the back, not in the extra-legroom seat she had paid for. The delay caused her to miss her connecting flight. The “threat” on the shirt? “Do Not Give In to the War Within. End Veteran Suicide.”

Click for larger graphic h/t This is True

When contacted by a reporter, the airline said only that “Delta is seeking to make contact with the customer directly to hear more so we can begin to look into what occurred.” Delta called her, offering a free flight, but not an apology. She refused the offer. The shirt is from Til Valhalla Project, which uses proceeds from sales to fund memorials for veterans who resorted to suicide. TVP says sales of the shirt jumped 4000% after the story broke.”

ENVZ – Enovix – Unspec. – Oppenheimer Fireside Chat
Short interest – After the close
QUIK – QuickLogic – 5:30pm – Earnings conference call

Tuesday, November 12
EDIT – Editas – 1on1s. – Guggenheim Healthcare Innovation Conference
INO – Inovio – 1on1s. – Guggenheim Healthcare Innovation Conference
SCYX – ScyNexis – 1on1s. – Guggenheim Healthcare Innovation Conference
SFTBY – Softbank – 3:30am – Earnings conference call
RKLB – Rocket Lab – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Wednesday, November 13
INO – Inovio – Keynote – Vaccines Summit
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am

Thursday, November 14
ENVX – Enovix – 1on1s – JPMorgan Equity Opportunities Forum
AG – First Majestic – Through 11/15 – Mining Investment, London
INO – Inovio – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $227.48) was re-rated by BofA Securities as a Buy with a $256 target price. They expect a strong iPhone upgrade cycle in fiscal 2025 and 2026, driven by the need for the latest hardware to enable Gen AI features, higher growth in Services revenue, higher margins from more internally developed silicon, continuing capital returns, and AI features that can drive higher institutional ownership.

Their $256 target is based on about 30x their calendar 2026 estimate of $8.47 a share. The 30x target multiple compares to the five-year historical range of 16x to 34x, with a median of 27x. They said that a Price/Earnings multiple at the higher end of the historical range is justified given a multi-year upgrade cycle, large cash balance, and the opportunity to diversify into new end markets and increase the mix and diversity of services. AAPL is a HOLD – I expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones.

Corning (GLW – $48.22) is the latest victim of the European Union’s “We’re so far behind we have to cripple American technology companies” program. The EU has opened an investigation of Corning over possible anti-competitive practices. They said they are concerned that Corning may have abused a dominant position for global supply of protective glass screens for handheld electronic devices – which they invented, you idiots – that may have resulted in distorted competition. The EU said Corning signed “anti-competitive exclusive supply agreements” with mobile phone manufacturers and companies that process raw glass,and wrote: “The Commission is concerned that the agreements that Corning put in place with OEMs and finishers may have excluded rival glass producers from large segments of the market, thereby reducing customer choice, increasing prices, and stifling innovation to the detriment of consumers worldwide.”

S-u-u-u-re.

This will turn out to be another nothingburger with a multimillion dollar fine that is simply a cost of doing business in the EU for Big Tech. It will keep them lazy and unproductive with a really poor entrepreneurial environment. Way to go, bureaucrats. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2025 .

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $97.90) posted a beat-and-raise September quarter. Revenues were up 7.1% from last year to $7.55 billion, ahead of the $7.00 billion consensus expectation. Pro forma earnings of $2.02 a share were far above the $1.55 consensus estimate.

HIV again had a good quarter but oncology slipped a bit:

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

They raised full year revenue guidance from a range from $27.1 billion to $27.5 billion to a range from $27.8 billion to $28.1 billion. Full year earnings guidance jumped from a range from $3.60 to $3.90 to a range from $4.25 to $4.40.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said: “We also delivered strong bottom‐line results that highlight the leverage in our business model and reflect our ongoing commitment to disciplined expense management. Based on our financial results year to date, we are increasing our 2024 guidance across almost every metric, including revenue and non‐GAAP gross margin, operating income, and EPS.”

Livdelzi for primary biliary cholangitis, or PBC, brings the number of innovative therapies launched by Gilead since 2019 to six, another step toward their goal of delivering at least 10 transformative therapies by 2030. The company can maintain its leadership in the HIV treatment market with four new regimens by the end of 2030.

Today, Gilead declared a 77¢ quarterly dividend for a forward yield of 3.36%. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $80 for a first target of $120.

Palantir (PLTR – $55.88) on Monday reported September quarter revenues up 30.0% from last year to $725.52 million, ahead of the $703.69 million estimate. Their year-over-year revenue growth rate has accelerated over the past six quarters, rising from 13% in the June 2023 quarter to 30% in this quarter.

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Pro forma earnings of 10¢ a share were a penny better than the 9¢ consensus estimate. Their customer count grew 39% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter. During the quarter, they closed 16 deals over $10 million, 20 deals between $5 million and $10 million, and 68 deals between $1 million and $5 million, totaling 104 deals over $1 million.

On the conference call (INVESTOR LETTER HERE – read this first!) and AUDIO & SLIDES on YouTube:

Plus SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Alex Karp said: “We absolutely eviscerated this quarter, driven by unrelenting AI demand that won’t slow down. This is a US-driven AI revolution that has taken full hold. The world will be divided between AI haves and have-nots. At Palantir, we plan to power the winners.”

In the Investor Letter, he said: “A juggernaut is emerging. This is the software century, and we intend to take the entire market…[and ever the salesman:] As America once again forges ahead, our allies and partners in Europe are being left behind. Their private and state institutions stand on the sidelines during this pivotal moment in economic history, while the relentless innovation of U.S. companies disrupts and reshapes global industries. Europe must adapt to the opportunities and challenges of AI, or risk ruin.”

They guided December quarter revenues to between $767 million and $771 million, far above the consensus of $744.04 million, with adjusted income from operations between $298 million and $302 million. For the full 2024 year, they raised revenue guidance to between $2.805 and $2.809 billion versus the consensus estimate of $2.76 billion.

They raised their US commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $687 million, representing a growth rate of at least 50%. As you might remember, Wall Street’s skepticism of Palantir was: “Yeah, they have government business, but they’ll never be able to make the transition to commercial.” So much for that. Palantir’s AIP is really resonating with US businesses.

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They also raised their adjusted free cash flow guidance to in excess of $1 billion, and continue to expect GAAP operating income and net income in each quarter of this year. Not surprisingly, the stock shot up $9.74 or 23.5% on Tuesday.

The company won a $5 million, three year deal with the Australian Department of Defence. CTO Shyam Sankar posted 18 theses on The Defense Reformation. He wrote: “The United States is an undeclared state of emergency. Our Defense Industrial Base is broken. Everyone knows it—including our enemies. We need a Defense Reformation. It’s time for a revival. It’s time for a little heresy…Everyone, including the Russians and the Chinese, have given up on communism except for Cuba and the DOD. The only problem is that we are bad commies.”

Palantir software is not cheap. Is it too expensive?

Wall Street still hates that they missed the stock. After the quarter, Mizuho said: “There’s no denying that Palantir is deserving of a premium valuation.” However, they said, it is “increasingly difficult to justify” the shares’ valuation. They kept their Underperform rating and raised their target price from $30(!) to $37(!!). Deutsche Bank raised their target price from $21(!!!) to $26(!!!!) and wrote that Palantir benefits from “a more entrenched retail investor following relative to everything else we cover.”

William Blair reiterated their Underperform rating, citing weakening overseas revenue and a reliance on “lumpy” government spending. They wrote: “While investors may give Palantir a free pass since U.S. commercial exceeded international commercial, management has been de-emphasizing the international commercial division, which has the slowest quarter growth rate in two years. Despite recent positive developments, the new 2024 revenue guidance is merely in line with consensus from two years ago.” Morgan Stanley courageously removed their Underweight rating because that wasn’t working out so well. Their new rating and target price are…oh, wait, there are none.

Jefferies just downgraded the stock from Hold to Underperform and cut their target price to – wow – $28. They said they recognized Palantir’s ability to deliver 30% year-over-year revenue growth and a 59% increase in Remaining Performance Obligations, which measures future revenue that is under contract but not yet recognized. However, they expressed skepticism about the company’s ability to maintain such a high growth rate moving forward and complained that PLTR is now “the most expensive software name.”

On the other hand, D.A. Davidson raised their target price from $28 to $47, citing “unrelenting demand” from US operations. They wrote: “Palantir remains well positioned to benefit from surging enterprise interest in AI applications. AIP and boot camps continue to be highlighted as a key reason for growth with new and existing customers today as Palantir is able to establish production use cases with customers faster than before.”

And Dan Ives at Wedbush, who has been bullish and right, raised his target from $45 to $57 – just over double Jefferies’ new target.

The September quarter produced adjusted free cash flow of $435 million, a 60% margin. They finished the quarter with $4.6 billion in cash and no debt. PLTR is a Buy under $22 for a $100+ target.

Small Tech

Fastly (FSLY – $8.17) reported September quarter revenues up 7.4% from last year to $137.21 million, just under Wall Street’s $138.09 million forecast. They earned 2¢ a share pro forma, beating the consensus expectation for a 4¢ loss.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said in the quarter, their Top 10 customers were 33% of revenue, down from 40% last year and down from 34% in the June quarter. They are trying to become less dependent on a few large customers. Revenue outside of the Top 10 accounts grew 20% year-over-year, a significant improvement from the June quarter’s 13%. They had 3,638 customers at the end of September, up 10% from the June period.

They guided for December fourth quarter revenue of $136.0 million to $140.0 million, well below the $153.97 million consensus. They expect pro forma breakeven ±2¢ a share, also well below the Street estimate for +4¢. But thanks to the strong September quarter they guided for a full-year 2024 pro forma loss of 8¢ to 12¢, a bit better than the consensus for a 12¢ loss.

Piper Sandler raised their target price from $6 to $8 but kept their Neutral rating. They wrote: “Q3 had solid upside fueled by better media traffic across live sports, gaming, large events, and non-Top 10 customers. More importantly, for the first time since 4Q23, Fastly did not have to cut guidance, but rather rolled forward the Q3 upside and left Q4 unchanged. This implies normalized CDN decelerates 3-4% Q/Q on an easier compare, and creates a highly conservative setup for Q4 as management looks to re-build credibility. We’re staying on the sidelines as we look for further signals of these catalysts, but are raising our PT to $8 on better fundamentals.”

By the time those better fundamentals are announced, the stock will be well over their target price. FSLY is a Buy up to $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $13.46) successfully launched their 54^th Electron mission, deploying a single satellite to Low Earth Orbit for a confidential commercial customer. This was the 12^th launch this year, continuing to best their previous record of 10 launches in 2023.

As I wrote before, this rocket was launched less than ten weeks from the mission’s launch contract signing, making it one of their fastest turnarounds yet from contract to launch. Here’s why that is so important.

Historically, it typically took years from contract signing to launch, which caused bottlenecks and limited launch opportunities for satellite operators. Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket revolutionized this by making it possible for customers to book and launch in just weeks, enabling them to test technologies faster, begin generating revenue from constellations earlier, or gather urgent data from orbit at near on-demand timelines. This business model is enabled by four things competitors don’t have: (1) standardized rapid production of Electron launch vehicles, (2) responsive launch sites, (3) proven and established launch systems, and (4 and vital) an experienced team capable of delivering rapid call-up launch year-round.

The stock got a target price raise from Citi from $7 to $13 with a reaffirmed Buy rating. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

The following is reprinted from Biotech Moonshots, my Substack publication:

The very knowledgeable and must-follow @learnbiotech posted an important graphic showing that from 2011-2020, all blockbuster drugs from the top 20 pharma companies were profitable, defined as the cost-adjusted revenue compared to the R&D required to develop them, and no low-selling drugs were.

h/t learnbiotechinvesting.thinkific.com

The surface way to look at this is to say: “Of course, wildly successful drugs are profitable and those that don’t sell aren’t.” But there’s more here than that, with important implications for Biotech Moonshots.

First is the question of why a drug becomes a blockbuster. It’s effective, of course, but beyond that, it targeted a big market, probably with little competition. Or a market so big – looking at you, weight loss – that it can support multiple blockbusters.

Two problems with big untapped markets are (1) the technology to develop an effective drug probably is very difficult or someone would have done it; and, (2) the competition to develop a drug probably has relatively large resources – money, people, academic connections, etc. Targeting a potential high-selling ($500M to $1B) or medium-selling ($100M to $500M) opportunity is more realistic for our little Moonshots.

Even here, look at the length of time it takes for a successful drug at that level to earn back its R&D – 6.8 years for a high-selling drug and 8.2 years for a medium-selling drug. And that’s with the marketing budget and skill set of a Top 20 pharma. For a Moonshot, there has to be enough capital available to not only develop, trial, and get approval, but also to survive the early lean days while sales build.

I learned from Arch Therapeutics, one of my worst bio recommendations ever, that it’s possible to go from concept to FDA approval for less than $50,000, be able to save payers money and patients literally years of pain and rehab, and still sell…nearly nothing. Apparently, even the VA would rather amputate a diabetic soldier’s foot and pay for prosthetics and rehab than spend $400 to cure a diabetic foot ulcer. Sure surprised me.

So I took the lesson from @learnbiotech ‘s post and reviewed all nine of the current Biotech Moonshot recommendations.

AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $2.72) reported September quarter research fee revenue down 1.5% from last year to $6.5 million – meaningless – and lost $51.1 million or 17¢ a share. R&D expenses were up from $37.9 million last year to $41.0 million, due to continued growth in program execution, platform development, and investments in internal programs.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they now expect to file clinical trial applications for both ABCL 575 and ABCL 635 in the June quarter. Behind them, AbCellera continues to advance a portfolio of programs in discovery including wholly-owned programs against multipass transmembrane targets and T cell engagers, and a smaller number of 50/50 co-development programs on novel targets and the degrader-antibody conjugates. They are in the final stages of building their GMP manufacturing facility to come online in 2025. They’re also expanding their core team for translational science and clinical operations to get ready for the two clinical trials next year.

They reported two new partner-initiated program starts with downstreams in the quarter and now count 95 cumulative partner-initiated program starts with downstream royalties for them. Fourteen molecules are in the clinic. Abdera’s lead molecule ABD-147 has received an Orphan Drug designation.

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AbCellera is a world leader in antibody technology. One of the most promising next-generation therapies against cancer is antibody drug conjugates. Think of chemotherapy as carpet bombing, while ADCs are like precision-guided cruise missiles. They can find their way to specific cancer cells and deliver a toxic payload while leaving the surrounding areas largely unscathed. I expect AbCellera to sign numerous development deals for this technology.

They finished the quarter with $670.4 million in cash plus $205 million available from Canadian government grants. AbCellera is going to get a small royalty on many blockbuster drugs for many years. It’s a very different strategy that I like because it spreads the risk and loops in Big Pharma strength. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
   Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.87) reported September quarter revenues down 11.0% from last year to $37.4 million with a GAAP loss of $20 million or 10¢ per share. That included $4.4 million in non-cash interest expense related to the settlement royalty liability in connection with the Vifor termination in July.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they already have Vafseo contracts covering over 300,000 or 60% of US dialysis patients and they are on track for the January launch.

Akebia is targeting the medium-selling erythropoietin-stimulating dialysis market with a deliberate, relatively low-cost strategy. I expect the launch of Vafseo to be very successful, similar to the TG Therapeutics launch of Briumvi, as they outperform guidance and Wall Street estimates quarter after quarter. If they can get an FDA label expansion to the non-dialysis market, they can push on to the high-selling niche. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the vadadustat launches in the EU, UK, and the US.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat doesn’t sell in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $5.30) posted the slides from their Capital Markets Day HERE. They emphasized the complexity of the biggest psychedelics trial ever, involving 150 sites in 12 countries:

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Compass had $207 million in cash at the end of September and will use $37 million to $43 million in the December quarter. They think they have enough cash to get into 2026, but if the stock goes up on the trial results next year, I expect them to raise enough money to get through FDA approval and launch.

Compass is a “win big or lose it all” situation. COMP360 could be a blockbuster but it will take years. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Editas Medicine (EDIT – $3.17) reported a September quarter GAAP loss of $62.1 million or 75¢ a share, 2¢ worse than the consensus estimate. They didn’t hold a conference call because they did the October 22 Business Update call that I covered in depth in the October 24 issue.

Management said they are on track to present additional clinical and patient reported outcomes data from 28 patients in the RUBY trial for sickle cell disease at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) annual meeting December 7-10. They should get a partner or out-license agreement thereafter.

They also are on track to present additional clinical data from the EdiTHAL trial of reni-cel for transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (TDT) by the end of 2024.

Editas, like AbCellera, has an entirely different royalty model at its core. I think genomic medicine will have many very expensive blockbuster drugs and EDIT will get paid a royalty on all of them. Licensee Vertex Pharmaceuticals booked its first revenue from a commercial sale of Casgevy, its CRISPR gene therapy. They recorded $2 million in revenue for the sickle cell disease treatment, representing a patient who was infused sometime between July and September. They said approximately 40 patients have undergone cell collection, a preliminary step in which their stem cells are removed for gene editing in a laboratory. On the Vertex conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), executives said they are seeing signs of growing demand and continue to project billions of dollars in future sales. Editas gets royalties.

Editas’ in vivo proprietary drugs are preclinical stage.

Raymond James downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform due to extended development times and uncertainty around the in vivo program. They wrote: “ While the program may have a safety advantage since it’s not expected to require myeloablative conditioning, this is offset by uncertain efficacy vs. the approved ex vivo approach.”

Management said they expects the existing $265.1 million of cash, together with the upfront $57 million cash payment from DRI, and the retained portions of the payments payable under the license agreement with Vertex, to fund operating expenses and capital expenditures into the June quarter of 2026. I expect them to partner reni-cel and sign more genomic patent licensing agreements in 2025. EDIT is a Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices.
Primary Risk: Other companies’ gene-sequencing drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Approved; Owned: Preclinical.
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: 2026 or never

Inovio (INO – $5.52) is near-certain to get approval for INO-3107 next year. It is a medium-selling opportunity after a few years, but approval of a DNA medicine and the Cellectra device would mean they could bring a series of other programs off the shelf. INO is a Buy under $14 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: Early 2026
   Probable time of next financing: March 2025 or after FDA approval in 2026

Medicenna (MDNAF – $1.78) was recommended because MDMA11 can be a blockbuster and they are very good at pinching pennies to get to the goal line. I sure would like to see a partnership deal for MDNA55, but I think that ship has sailed. Buy MDNAF under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: 2025

ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.33) reported a $2.8 million or 6¢ loss per share for the September quarter. As usual, they didn’t telegraph the release and didn’t hold a conference call, either of which would help the stock price. They will be doing 1-on-1s at next week’s Guggenheim Healthcare Conference.

In the press release, they said: “Third-party manufacturing of new batches of ibrexafungerp for use in clinical trials is in progress, and SCYNEXIS anticipates restarting the Phase 3 MARIO study in invasive candidiasis in Q1 2025.”

Again, there was no explicit announcement about the new supplier. I have seen lots of private companies in stealth mode, but never a public company do this. They also plan to start a Phase 1 trial of SCY-247 before the end of 2024. They may even grace us with an announcement when that happens.

ScyNexis has the technology and the Big Pharma partner in GSK that can get them big royalties over time. They had $84.9 million in cash at the end of the quarter, enough to carry them for two years. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Never

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $27.90) reported September quarter revenues up 80.2% from last year to $83.3 million as Briumvi continues to take market share. That beat Wall Street expectations for $81.71 million. They reported 2¢ earnings per share. The consensus earnings estimates ranged from a loss of 5¢ to a profit of 8¢, with an average of 3¢.

TG signed a multi-year manufacturing supply agreement with FujiFilm Diosynth Biotechnologies to provide a secondary US-based manufacturing supply for Briumvi from FujiFilm’s’s new biopharmaceutical manufacturing facility in North Carolina. The facility will be fully operational in 2025 and the FDA will have to approve it. Briumvi’s main manufacturer is Samsung Biologics in South Korea, the global leaders in biologics manufacturing.

On the conference call, (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Mike Weiss said the long-term follow-up data from the open label Extension study from the Ultimate 1 and Ultimate 2 Phase 3 trials showed that after five years of the treatment, 92% of patients were free from disability progression. In the fifth year of treatment, a relapse rate of only 0.02 was observed, which is equivalent to one relapse occurring every 50 years of treatment. The overall safety profile remained consistent over the five years of continuous Briumvi treatment with no new safety signals emerging with prolonged usage.

Mike said: “The team continues to execute on our phased launch plan, setting us on what we believe is a path for continued growth and strong momentum heading into the end of the year and into 2025 and further towards our long-term goal of becoming the number one prescribed anti-CD 20 in terms of dynamic market share.”

They raised their Briumvi revenue target from a range of $290 million to $300 million to a range from $300 million to $305 million for the full 2024. (Their original guidance was for $220 million to $260 million.) The Street consensus supposedly was $327.72 million, but that’s just an average of a wide range from $307.26 to $411.69. The top of their new guidance range is below the lowest estimate, so even though everyone knows they’ll beat the low bar, the stock fell 9.4% on Monday after the call.

TG has a real chance at a $1 billion blockbuster with Briumvi, although I think some Big Pharma will acquire them before they get there. The company finished the quarter with $341.0 million in cash. Buy TGTX under $12 for a target price in a buyout of $30 or more.
Primary Risk:Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($2,712.10) has posted gains every month of 2024 and is up 25.6% year-to-date. Silver broke out late in the September quarter and is up 28.5% YTD. Our 11 precious metals recommendations have done well this year and should have a strong 2025 as 3% inflation becomes the new normal.

The fractal dimension picked up this down week as a hint that the uptrend really is exhausted. As the “strong dollar because Trump” and “weak dollar because inflation” wars play out, gold can consolidate back to the 55 level and store up the energy for a push over $3,000 in early 2025.

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.59) clobbered the estimates for the September quarter. Revenues rose 61.1% (!) from last year to $313.5 million, $27.6 million above the $285.9 million estimate. Earnings of 12¢ a share more than doubled the 5¢ estimate. On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said free cash flow inflection was achieved with $69 million of free cash flow, enabling them to begin deleveraging the balance sheet as they paid down $50 million of their revolving credit facility.

At full capacity, the expanded Rochester Mine will process 32 million tons of rock a year, making it one of the world’s largest open pit heap leach operations and America’s largest source of domestically produced and refined silver with a 16-year mine life based on Proven & Probable reserves.

For the next two months:

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CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Dakota Gold (DC – $2.50) is a Buy under $2.50 for a $6 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Robert Quartermain doesn’t find enough gold. Secondary risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.33) reported September quarter revenues up 8.2% from last year to $44.7 million, just under the $45.8 million consensus estimate. They sold 17,359 attributable gold equivalent ounces compared to 21,123 ounces last year. Their cash operating margin hit $2,215 per attributable gold equivalent ounce, compared to $1,699 per ounce last year. That was the second consecutive quarter of record operating margins and generated $37.0 million in cash flows from operating activities, compared to $33.9 million. Their $5.8 million of net income compared to net income of $0.01 million in last September’s period.

They repeated that based on their existing streams and royalties and the year-to-date outperformance of gold prices relative to other commodities, attributable gold equivalent ounces for 2024 are forecasted to be between 70,000 and 75,000 ounces. The company’s production forecast still is expected to reach approximately 125,000 attributable gold equivalent ounces within the next five years, based solely on streams and royalties that the Company has bought and paid for.

Sandstorm will hold a conference call Friday morning. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sprott Inc. (SII – $43.74) reported September quarter revenues up a whopping 39.9% from last year to $42.11 million with GAAP earnings of 50¢ per share versus 27¢ last year. Management fees of $38.7 million were up 18% from $32.9 million last year.

On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Whitney George said: “Assets Under Management (AUM) was $33.4 billion as at September 30 up 8% from June and up 16% from December. This is our third consecutive quarter of record high AUM, driven by strong gold and silver prices, as well as $589 million in net sales during the period. Given the strength of these results and our confidence in Sprott’s future, our Board has declared a third quarter dividend of 30¢ per share, an increase of 20%. Further, we now expect to repay the balance of our line of credit by the end of this month, resulting in a debt-free balance sheet.”

He said that by November 1 AUM increased another 2% to $34.2 billion. Sprott has shown steady growth in AUM, and that should continue during a Trump presidency.

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The exchange-listed physical trusts are seeing strong sales, especially the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) and the Physical Silver Trust (PSLV). Physical trusts AUM was $25.7 billion on November 1, up about 50% since January 2023.

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They finished the quarter with $43.5 million in cash, $89,4 million of co-investments of which $40 million can be monetized in less than 90 days, and a $75 million revolving credit facility they are about to fully repay by the end of the month. Buy SII under $40 for a $70 target price.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $75,573.94) shot up after Trump’s victory to a new record high of $76,943 today because he is “crypto-friendly,” whatever that means. SEC Enforcement chief Gary Gensler undoubtedly will head for a lucrative private sector job, but bitcoin already is pretty much free of needless restrictions. I really doubt the exchanges will get more regulatory relief, and I think Trump’s Bitcoin Strategic Reserve will never happen.

Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said $100,000 is the next major milestone, potentially before the year is out. Anthony Scaramucci, SkyBridge Capital founder and a well-known voice in financial circles, believes America will sidestep a full-blown debt crisis by allowing inflation to inch upward. He believes that by mid-2026, bitcoin will soar to $170,000. He said: “I believe it’s coming and again, I’m talking about a threefold rise in 18 to 24 months. I don’t think that’s impossible for this asset, given the fixed limited supply and what I think is very high demand.” He is at least directionally right.

Bernstein predicts bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000 by Inauguration Day on January 20. They think it will hit $200,000 in 2025. A UK pension fund has become the first in the country to add bitcoin to its portfolio. Cartwright, the pension advisory firm, said it had recommended a 3% bitcoin allocation to an unidentified client, citing the digital currency’s long-term performance. Sam Roberts, Director of Investment Consulting at Cartwright, said: “We are proud to have led this groundbreaking move.” He expects it will hopefully influence other UK institutional investors to follow suit.

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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $43.60) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $72.06

OPEC announced on Sunday that it is delaying its plan to begin to pump 2.2 million barrels per day (b/d) more oil into the market. They originally planned to add 180,000 b/d of production in December, but now have pushed that back to January.

Crude oil storage is at a five-year low for this time of year:

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Trump is a net positive for oil prices. “Drill, baby, drill” may mean the Federal government provides tax breaks on capital investments and expedites the infrastructure build-out, but shale production has matured and the Permian is not what it used to be. Unlike the old shale days, when the name of the game was to grow as fast as you can and sell out, consolidation has already taken place across the US shale patch. With the remaining inventory in the handful of large players, resource management is now the name of the game. Producers with Tier 1 acreages have to manage the long-term value of the assets and that means a slow-and-steady approach to tackling the remaining inventory.

Meanwhile, Trump is likely to intensify Iranian sanctions while removing Russian sanctions as part of the Ukraine war settlement, for a net zero or even negative change in supply.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $66.69) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $37.94) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $10.07) reported September quarter revenues up 3.1% from last year to $490.09 million. Fund flows from operations were C$275 million or C$1.76 per share. On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said even though they shut in some gas production, it was a good quarter:

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They’ve bought back 16 million shares so far this year, more than double the full year 2023. Their outlook is little changed:

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VET is a buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.35) September quarter revenue fell 63.1% from last year to $4.05 million, below the $5.10 million estimate. But there are only two analysts publishing on the stock. The bull expected $9.3 million in revenues and a loss of 5¢ a share. The bear expected only $900,000 in revenues but still a loss of 5¢ a share. The company lost 7¢ a share.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management emphasized their diversified uranium/rare earth elements/heavy mineral sands exposure to three potentially high-growth mineral markets.

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The core of the business is uranium, where they are ramping up ore production at their three operating mines to a run rate of 1.1 million to 1.4 million pounds per year by yearend. They expect to produce 150,000 to 200,000 pounds of finished uranium this year. For the rest of the year, all sales will be on the spot market.

CEO Mark Chalmers said: “This quarter, we maintained our clean balance sheet while adding a new long-term U.S. utility customer, completing another spot sale of U3O8, and commencing processing of the large inventory stockpile of uranium feedstock at the White Mesa Mill, which is expected to continue well into 2025 and beyond.

“Uranium production is, and will remain, the core of the Energy Fuels’ business, as we leverage our unique permits, facilities, and expertise to process uranium-bearing materials to produce a variety of critical materials that advance the global energy transition through an American-based supply chain.

“We have long been a leading U.S. uranium producer, and we have now proven our ability to produce important rare earth materials at commercial scale with the completion and successful commissioning of our REE separation circuit this quarter. We are also aggressively moving forward with our plans to secure rare earth feedstocks globally and expand our processing capacity domestically in order to capture market share and achieve profitability.”

Rare earth production in the US is a very valuable add-on:

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The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) rejected another Big Tech nuclear power agreement late Friday. A grid operator, PJM, requested to ramp up the amount of power supplied through the grid from Talen Energy’s Susquehanna nuclear plant to an Amazon AI data center. The agreement between Talen and Amazon was a model for other power providers and tech companies. FERC is doing what regulators do best – slowing technology advances, increasing costs to consumers, and (most important) increasing their own power. Yuck. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

EQT (EQT – $40.69) reported September quarter revenues up 8.5% from last year to $1.28 billion, just under the $1.39 billion estimate. Sales volume of 581 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) was above the high-end of their guidance. They had strong well performance despite approximately 35 Bcfe of total net curtailments to support prices. They solidly beat the consensus on the bottom line with pro forma earnings of 12¢ a share, more than doubling the 5¢ estimate. In addition, they announced the sale of their remaining non-operated Northeast Pennsylvania gas assets to Equinor for $1.25 billion in cash, which they will use to pay down debt.

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On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Toby Rice said: “The strategic acquisition of Equitrans transformed EQT into America’s only large scale, vertically integrated natural gas business.

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“Since closing the Equitrans acquisition [on July 22], our integration team has been firing on all cylinders, with more than 60% of integration tasks completed and more than 50% of base synergies achieved in just three months. Alongside rapid integration and synergy capture, we are also seeing operational efficiency gains that are being unlocked as a direct consequence of the Equitrans acquisition, which could drive even greater value capture over time.

“Between asset-level cash flows since acquiring this position in 2021, and the two divestitures announced this year, we expect to realize approximately $3.6 billion of total value, implying 3.3x the original value allocation. This transaction, along with the positive momentum we are seeing in our regulated midstream asset sale process, gives us tremendous confidence in being able to achieve our year-end 2025 debt target.”

This is very important to get Wall Street behind the stock.

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For the December quarter, Toby guided for sales of 555 Bcfe to 605 Bcfe. EQT is riding two huge waves of natural gas demand: the AI data center build-out and Liquefied Natural Gas exports:

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While absolute gas inventories are slightly above average, demand has been steadily growing, which means the more important ratio of gas inventories to demand in near all-time lows. That means prices will be more volatile depending on the weather and will shoot up in cold snaps. Gas storage capacity relative to demand also is near all-time lows, which means there’s nowhere to put increased production to alleviate the inventories-to-demand problem.

Although US natural gas prices have slumped this year, trading activity in benchmark gas futures has surged thanks to booming exports of LNG. Open interest in Henry Hub natural gas futures last month eclipsed records that have stood since 2018, with the measure of market participation exceeding 1.7 million contracts last week, according to CME Group. Average daily trading volume is up 26% this year compared with 2023.

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Roughly 25% of Henry Hub trades this year have originated outside the US, also a record, and up from a share in the low single-digits before LNG exports boomed. That’s been the basic story: globalization of a major commodity in an unprecedented short period of time.

EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

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From Konstantin Kisin

For my British and European [and Canadian?] friends who are “shocked” and “surprised,” here are 10 reasons you didn’t see this coming. Read this short post and then read the replies from our American friends who will confirm what I’m saying.

1. Americans love their country and want it to be the best in the world. America is a nation of people who conquered a continent. They love strength. They love winning. Any leader who appeals to that has an automatic advantage.

2. Unlike Europeans, Americans have not accepted managed decline. They don’t have Net Zero here, they believe in producing their own energy and making it as cheap as possible because they know that their prosperity depends on it.

3. Prices for most basic goods in the US have increased rapidly and are sky high. What the official statistics say about inflation and the reality of people’s lives are not the same.

4. Unlike you, Americans do not believe in socialism. They believe in meritocracy. They don’t care about the super rich being super rich because they know that they live in a country where being super rich is available to anyone with the talent and drive to make it. They don’t resent success, they celebrate it.

5. Americans are the most pro-immigration people in the world. Read that again. Seriously, read it again. Americans love an immigrant success story. They want more talented immigrants to come to America. But they refuse to accept people coming illegally. They believe in having a border.

6. Americans are sensitive about racial issues and their country’s imperfect history. They believe that those who are disadvantaged by the circumstances of their birth should be given the opportunity to succeed. What they reject, however, is the idea that in order to address the errors of the past new errors must be made. DEI is racist. They know it and they reject it precisely because they are not racist.

7. Americans are the most philosemitic nation on earth. October 7 and the pro-Hamas left’s reaction shocked them to their very core because, among other things, they remember what 9/11 was like and they know jihad when they see it.

8. Americans are extremely practical people. They care about what works, not what sounds good. In Europe, we produce great writers and intellectuals. In America they produce (and attract) great engineers, businessmen, and investors. Because of this, they care less about Trump’s rhetoric than you do and more about his policies than you do.

9. Americans are deeply optimistic people. They hate negativity. The woke view of American history as a series of evils for which they must eternally apologise is utterly abhorrent to them. They believe in moving forward together, not endlessly obsessing about the past.

10. America is a country whose founding story is one of resistance to government overreach. They loathe unnecessary restrictions, regulations and control. They understand that freedom comes with the price of self-reliance and they pay it gladly.
5:17 AM · Nov 6, 2024
10.5M Views

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Your letting my antivirus protection expire Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 11/7/24. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Corning (GLW – $48.22) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $97.90 – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Palantir (PLTR – $55.88) – Buy under $22, target price $100+
  PayPal (PYPL – $81.35) – Buy under $68, target price $136
  Snap (SNAP – $12.48 – Buy under $11, target price $17+
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $31.20) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $8.94) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $63.80) – Buy under $60; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $8.17) – Buy under $14; 3- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $20.25) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.07) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $13.46) – Buy under $13, target price $30+

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $2.72) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.87) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $5.30) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $3.17) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $5.52) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $1.78) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.33) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $27.90) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($31.85) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $30.65) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $38.87) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $25.22) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $38.59) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.59) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  Dakota Gold (DC – $2.50) – Buy under $2.50, target price $6
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $6.76) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.36) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.33) – Buy under $10, target price $2538.87
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $43.74) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $75,573.94) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $43.60) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,892.56) – Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $22.04) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $66.69) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $37.94) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $10.07) – Buy under $11; $24 target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.35) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $40.69) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $48.58) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $227.48) – Expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones
  Meta (META – $591.70) – Expect to move back to Buy under $400

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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