Dear New World Investor:
The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline number increased 2.6%, right on the consensus but a bit faster than September’s 2.4%. The month-over-month increase was 0.2%, the same as the last three months and also right on the consensus. As usual, a few outliers warped the numbers. Auto insurance is still much higher than a year ago while gasoline – which is not in the core inflation calculation – is much lower.
Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance
The core CPI excluding food and energy was up 3.3% year-over-year and, for the third month in a row, up 0.3% month-over-month. Both were the same as September and the consensus estimate.
Even though inflation was in line with analysts’ average forecasts, Wall Street’s reaction was to weaken the dollar and bid up stocks and commodities. The odds of a rate cut in December rose from 59% to 75%. I guess the theory is that the Fed Funds rate in the 4.50% to 4.75% range creates tight monetary conditions above the inflation rate. But today Chairman Powell said: “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” and the odds of a December rate cut immediately fell back to 59%.
The Fed is forward looking and it’s clear that progress against inflation has stalled at a higher level than their target. Over the next two years the Fed funds rate probably will drift down. But I think that any single meeting is a coin toss on another quarter-point (25bps) cut, depending on how the most recent inflation, labor, and GDP data are looking. The December 18 meeting will be the first test.
Today’s headline Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 2.4% from last year, just above the 2.3% consensus expectation. It was up 0.2% from September, a tick faster than September’s revised 0.1%. The core PPI was up 3.1% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. It was the first increase in the headline annual PPI inflation rate after three straight months of declines, and the third straight month of increases in the core annual PPI.
The markets used to not care much about the PPI because it’s only loosely connected to the Consumer Price Index, but this month’s increases were in portfolio management costs and other categories that feed into the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. That is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. We get the next PCE on November 27, the day before Thanksgiving.
The S&P 500 has closed at a record high 51 times this year. 20 trading days after the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 43,000, it closed over 44,000. How long can this keep going? The great Ed Yardeni says we are headed for 7,000 by the end of next year, then 8,000 by the end of 2026, and 10,000 by 2030 because “animal spirits are back.” Well – maybe. It’s very clear that markets do worst in the first year of a Presidential term, and in any term where the first year isn’t bad, the second year usually is really bad. Yardeni’s forecasts may be right, but that doesn’t exclude higher volatility and nasty drawdowns along the way.
On the plus side, the character of the market has changed dramatically as assets under passive (indexed) management now exceed assets under active management. This provides a steady bid under the indexes from pension funds, 401(k)’s, and others with steady cash inflows to move stocks higher.
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But on the negative side, President Trump’s tariff proposals will show up in inflation in 2026 if they actually are proposed and enacted. The unspoken deal we had with China is they would ship us cheap stuff in return for green paper, and then they would use the green paper to buy Treasury bonds to fund our deficits. A great deal for us, but not for them. They broke the deal by stopping Treasury bond purchases and even selling bonds in competition with US government sales. If John Paulson really does wind up as Secretary of the Treasury, he’ll have a lot to say about tariffs.
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 cleared 6000 to celebrate Veteran’s Day, but Powell’s comments today pushed it to a loss of 0.4% since last Thursday. The Index still is up 24.7% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8% and is up 27.3% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) was doing OK until it was clobbered today and fell 5.9% for the week. It is up 8.6% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.9% but is up 15.3% in 2024.
The fractal dimension is closing in on the fully consolidated 55 level, but we still need more time churning or a bigger downdraft to get there. The end of December should be lit.
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Top 5
Changes this week:
Near-Term – chronological order
SCYX – ScyNexis – Announce resolution of the manufacturing problem, lifting of clinical hold, restart of MARIO trial, and maybe GSK files for hospital use approval
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch in January
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
Economy
Argus Research raised their fourth-quarter 2024 forecast for GDP growth to 2.8% from 2.3%. The most-significant change to their model is they raised personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.4% to 3.4% because they expect holiday retail sales to increase approximately 3% to almost $1 trillion.
They still expect 2.0% growth in 2025, with quarterly estimates of 1.7%, 1.7%, 2.3%, and 2.5%. Obviously, that is back-end loaded and could easily be high.
The Dollar
Although the dollar weakened a little after the CPI report, lately attitudes towards the dollar have been more influenced by news of potential trade tariffs. I don’t expect general tariffs. There probably will be tariffs on imports of specific goods where the Trump Administration wants to encourage domestic manufacturing, like pharmaceuticals and EVs.
At this point, it’s important to remember two things:
1. Presidents of both parties never do everything they said they would do when they were running for election
2. The Presidency actually is as Administration. Looking at Trump’s cabinet picks so far – the people he will be relying on for specific advice – I’d say this will be a pretty centrist Administration with both the far left and far right disliking lots of decisions.
This may be a good place to add:
3. My guy didn’t win and only got a little over 23,000 votes in Oregon, so as usual I’m going to be focused on making money more than politics (except maybe if he gets appointed Secretary of HHS).
4. If you have either BDS or TDS (Biden Derangement Syndrome or Trump Derangement Syndrome), you are making your investing journey more difficult. Staying focused on the goal of successful investing is a superpower.
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Monday, November 18
ABCL – AbCellera – 11:30am – Stifel Healthcare Conference
Tuesday, November 19
FSLY – Fastly – 10:40am – RBC Capital Markets Global Technology, Internet, Media and Telecommunications Conference
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 10:55am – Stifel Healthcare Conference
ABCL – AbCellera – 12:30pm – Jefferies London Healthcare Conference
EDIT – Editas – 1:50pm – Stifel Healthcare Conference
Wednesday, November 20
AG – First Majestic – Through 11/21 – Swiss Mining Institute, Zurich
AG – First Majestic – Through 11/23 – New Orleans Investment Conference
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 4:30am – Jefferies London Healthcare Conference
Thursday, November 21
AG – First Majestic – Through 11/22 – Deutsche Goldmesse, Frankfort
AKBA – Akebia – 8:00am – Jefferies London Healthcare Conference
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $228.22) released The Weekend: Open Hearts, a free immersive music experience on Apple Vision Pro. Open Hearts was created with Apple Immersive Video, a 1800 media format that combines ultra-high-resolution immersive video with Spatial Audio to place viewers in the center of the action. They’re using it to sell Vision Pro. People can see the immersive experience in its entirety by booking an Apple Vision Pro demo at their local Apple Store. AAPL is a HOLD – I expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones.
Meta Platforms (META – $577.16) was a recommendation on April 5, 2018 at $159.34. While it is tempting to ring the cash register, here’s why I want to continue to hold.
First, there are very few companies where one person both starts it and takes it to over $1 trillion in market value. Zuckerberg has never been especially likable, but he certainly has been competent.
Second, although I think the talk about the coming arrival of general artificial intelligence is a bunch of hooey. But Generative AI like ChatGPT or, as I call it, Imitative Intelligence, is the real deal. It will transform almost every job and industry over the next 20 years. Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts that Gen AI could become a $1.3 trillion industry in 2032 compared to just $40 billion in 2022. That’s a 42% annual growth rate. They say Gen AI-driven advertising spending is expected to grow at an annual rate of 125% through 2032, generating $192 billion in annual revenue, compared to just $57 million in 2022. Meta is the absolute leader in this trend.
In the September quarter, Meta’s ad impressions increased by 7% from last year and the average price per ad was up 11%. As I wrote before, Zuck said AI-driven content has led to an 8% increase in time spent by users on Facebook and a 6% increase in time spent on Instagram. That created an increase in the number of ad impressions delivered. Meta said more than one million advertisers used the Gen AI tools to create over 15 million ads, and advertisers using the AI-based image generation tools got a 7% jump in conversions. That’s gold for advertisers, translating to a 32% increase in return on ad spending, so they bid up the price of ads.
Is it perfect? No way. I’ve used their Advantage+ tools to let their Gen AI create ad campaigns and target demographics. It does stupid things, like put the first half of a headline above an image and the second half below. But it will get better.
The consensus earnings estimates for 2025 range from $22.00 a share to $29.72, with an average of $25.30, up 13.5% from 2024. I’m at $28. At today’s close, the stock sells for 22.8x the consensus estimate and just 20.6x my $28. Wall Street expects 17% annual growth for the next five years and they’re probably a little low. So the stock is not grossly overvalued and easily could trade for 30x $28, or $840. That’s over a $2 trillion valuation.
So if you’re still holding Meta, continue to hold. If you missed it, the best way to leg into these highly valued fast growers is to nibble a little every time it hits two standard deviations (SD) below its trailing average price, which John Bollinger cleverly renamed “Bollinger Bands.” Meta recently visited the -2 SD area:
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META is a Hold – Buy or add at minus 2 standard deviations.
Palantir (PLTR – $59.18) renewed a multiyear contract with Rio Tinto that gave them improved workflows for an additional four years. Now they want to use AIP to solve problems “previously deemed as too complex.” AIP is making a dramatic difference to revenue growth and profitability:
Click for larger graphic h/t @arny_trezzi
In the September quarter, Palantir was able to grow its top line 30%, while sales and marketing grew only 18.8%. That led to the continued growth in adjusted operating margin. On the earnings call last week, CEO Alex Karp said: “Instead of trying to have 10,000 clients, all of whom hate you…we want a smaller number of the world’s best partners that, quite frankly, are dominating with our product. And the way you do that is by not blowing up your margin and getting 10,000 salespeople. It’s actually by going deeper on the product. And in fact, what we see is the deeper and better the product, the more we drive sales, the more we have our singular advantage as Palantir, not as a commodity product.”
PLTR is a Buy under $22 for a $100+ target.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $85.79) introduced a money-pooling feature to their app so friends and family can fund group gifts, travel, special events, or any other shared expenses. Customers can set up a pool in the PayPal app or online, invite friends and family to contribute, track group contributions, and transfer funds to their PayPal balance to spend or withdraw. PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $28.60) reported September second quarter revenues up 7.5% from last year to $11.0 billion with a net profit of $4.7 billion or $3.59 per share. That was almost 350% better than the June quarter’s 80¢ a share.
On the conference call (SHORT VIDEO HERE and LONG VIDEO HERE and DATA SHEET HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said the net income was driven by gains in T-Mobile and the Vision Funds, which now have cumulative gains since their founding, They have “ample cash reserves to enable further AI investments” – $25.57 billion, to be precise.
At the end of September, the company had $214.15 billion in equity value of their holdings less $25.69 billion of net debt for a net asset value of $189.46 billion or $65.55 a share.
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With the stock still selling at less than half hard book value, Softbank has a new $3.23 billion buyback program. In October, they bought 4,787,400 shares for $135.5 million. Masa will keep buying back stock until either the discount disappears or he and we are the only shareholders left. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $8.85) did an Oppenheimer fireside chat. Management said they had to raise money to show customers they have the resources to expand battery production further, if necessary. They think the window to do that is about to close for the holidays and doesn’t really reopen until April for small cap companies. So since they have just hit two of their promised milestones, opening Fab2 and getting their first development contract, they thought this was the best time to do it. Equity made more sense than debt or convertible debt, and a relatively small raise has strengthened their balance sheet and put them in position to show customers they can meet demand upside. Plus, they did not want to be negotiating price with a customer that they needed to finance a production expansion.
CEO Raj Talluri said that almost 20 years in the smartphone components industry has taught him that when there is a change in technology, it happens very fast. Like after the first smartphone that had WiFi, then everyone had WiFi. But there are lead times and qualification requirements to get the equipment for a new battery production line, and if Enovix was behind the curve it would be a big problem.
Yields came up to 80% very quickly in Fab2 in Malaysia, so they are confident they can get to 90%+. There are several manufacturing steps or zones, and they focus on each one in turn to raise yields. They’ll be in high-volume production for this first customer late in 2026, so they have plenty of time to get the yields up and be very profitable when they start to ship. They also can cost-reduce some steps with newer technology and materials. It’s an ongoing optimization process. They expect about $150 million in revenues from this first contract at a 50% gross profit margin.
Smartphone batteries have been getting steadily larger over the years to support many more functions, but the phones now are about as large as they can be and still fit in one hand. So the only way to support even more functions, especially AI, is to pack more milliamp hours into the same space – more energy density. At the same time, the battery has to keep all the other attributes: charge fast, work for 800 to 1000 cycles before replacement, work in hot and cold environments, safety, etc. That is the high-value problem Enovix has solved.
The use case also makes a difference. The way smartphones discharge a battery is very different from a Virtual Reality headset, and potential customers are helping Enovix on how to optimize their design for different use cases. Raj thinks that is a key to increasing their lead over the competition with sustainable differentiation.
Enovix has a long technology roadmap as materials get better and better. They’ve already moved from silicon dioxide electrodes to silicon carbide, and there are always new materials coming. They have multiple sources for materials and production equipment. Neither Malaysia or South Korea are on the potential tariffs list at this point, and they already are talking to companies with China production interested in what Enovix can do for them. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.
QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.63) reported September quarter revenues down 36.3% from last year to $4.27 million, but that was just above Wall Street’s estimate for $4.20 million. They had a pro forma loss of 6¢ a share, a penny worse than the -5¢ consensus. Basically, results were in line with recent guidance.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Brian Faith said the decrease in revenue from last year was primarily due to the timing of deliverables for large eFPGA IP contracts. That dropped the pro forma gross margin from 78.0% last year to 60.%, although that was up from the June quarter’s 53.1%. This will even out over the year and they still expect record revenues this year and next, QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $17.36) reported September quarter revenues up 54.9% from last year to $104.81 million, ahead of the consensus estimate for $102.39 million. They had a pro forma loss of 10¢ a share, also better than the 11¢ consensus loss estimate. They finished the quarter with a $1.048 billion backlog, up 80% from last year.
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On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Sir Peter Beck said they signed a multi-launch agreement with a confidential commercial satellite constellation operator for Neutron, their new medium-lift rocket due in mid-2025.
Under the contract, Rocket Lab will launch two dedicated missions on Neutron, one in mid-2026 and the other in 2027. Peter said the launch service agreement for these missions signifies the beginning of a productive collaboration that could see Neutron deploy the entire constellation.
The Neutron medium-lift reusable launch vehicle will provide both commercial and government customers with an alternative reliable launch service capable of deploying 28,660 pounds to low Earth orbit. It is designed to deploy constellations and national security missions as well as science and exploration payloads. In the longer-term, Neutron will deploy Rocket Lab’s own constellations to deliver services from space.
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More than 10,000 satellites are projected to need launch services by 2030 in a total addressable market valued at approximately $10 billion. Neutron also is in a strong position to get onto the US Government’s National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Lane 1 program, an indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract valued at $5.6 billion over a five-year period. The program is designed by the Space Force to build up a reliable domestic industrial base of commercial launch vehicles to serve national security missions. As part of that, Rocket Lab just won a defense contract with a value up to $8 million from the Air Force Research Laboratory to showcase the company’s engineering processes and support the development of their new reusable rocket engine, Archimedes.
Peter said: “Constellation companies and government satellite operators are desperate for a break in the launch monopoly [looking at you, SpaceX]. They need a reliable rocket from a trusted provider, and one that’s reusable to keep launch costs down and make space more frequently accessible – and Neutron is strongly positioned to be that rocket that provides choice and value to the industry. We’ve changed the game before with Electron for dedicated small launch and HASTE for hypersonic technology tests, and we’re looking forward to Neutron doing the same for constellation operators and national security.”
They guided the December quarter to record revenues between $125 million and $135 million, well above the consensus expectation for $121.93 million. Revenues will be up about 75% in 2024 and 40% in 2025.
Roth MKM reaffirmed their Buy rating and tripled their target price from $7 to $25. Stifel maintained their Buy and raised their target from $15 to $22. Wells Fargo more than doubled their target price from $5.25(!) to $13.50(!!) and kept their Neutral rating. Stephen Guilfoyle of TheStreet.com boosted his price target from $14 to $23.
The stock rose 28.4% on Wednesday to another all-time high and is above my buy limit. We’ve all had lots of time to buy the #2 space company, so don’t chase it – just enjoy it RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Biotech MegaShift
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Between 2006 and 2019, 9 out of 10 FDA commissioners went on to work for the pharmaceutical companies they were in charge of regulating. Approximately 65% of the FDA’s drug review budget comes directly from the pharmaceutical industry. Americans are among the sickest people on the planet, and our health agencies are blatantly compromised. RFK Jr. and the MAHA movement will benefit Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and all people on the planet.
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $2.76) has a T-cell engager program I haven’t talked about much because I am primarily interested in their antibody discovery partnering program. But they presented some very interesting new data as a poster at the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) annual meeting last Friday, and next week they’ll present at both the Stifel Healthcare Conference and the Jefferies Healthcare Conference in London, and probably talk about this.
CD3 T-cell engagers guide the immune system to find and eliminate cancer cells by (1) binding to tumor targets and (2) binding to the CD3 protein on cancer-killing T-cells at the same time. T-cell engagers have the potential to be a cornerstone of cancer treatment, but development has been limited due to challenges with efficacy and safety.
AbCellera developed a comprehensive T-cell engager platform to enable custom design and optimization of molecules based on a target product profile. As the poster shows, using their antibody development skills they have been able to develop CD3-binding antibodies to widen the therapeutic window by generating T=cell engagers with potent tumor cell-killing and optimal cytokine release. Their preclinical work against two solid tumor targets has shown tumor-cell killing and cytokine release profiles that are better than clinical benchmarks.
Will this ever amount to anything? It’s too early to tell, but it does put another arrow in their quiver to do more contract development or partnerships with Big Pharma. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.86) said that the American Journal of Kidney Disease published the results of the FO2CUS open-label study of the efficacy and safety of Vafseo in hemodialysis patients who were converted from a long-acting erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) to three times weekly oral vadadustat dosing for the maintenance treatment of anemia. As you know, it was both efficacious and safe. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the vadadustat launches in the EU, UK, and the US.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat doesn’t sell in the US.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Never
Editas Medicine (EDIT – $2.77) presented at the Guggenheim Healthcare Innovation Conference (AUDIO HERE). The first question was a good one: Why did you decide not to pursue reni-cell, your lead drug, when it looked like it would be better than the already-approved Casgevy? CEO Gilmore O’Neill said that reni-cell is an ex vivo drug, but their core focus is making in vivo work. It is a very powerful drug and they need a partner to get to approval. A partnership also will free up resources to accelerate their in vivo program.
The second question was is there a possible partner for reni-cell and, if so, who? Gilmore said what you would expect – “we have an active process…we want a partner with an existing presence in sickle cell disease or hematological transplant.” EDIT is a Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices.
Primary Risk: Other companies’ gene-sequencing drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Approved; Owned: Preclinical.
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2026
Probable time of next financing: 2026 or never
Inovio (INO – $4.77) reported a pro forma loss of $25.2 million or 89¢ a share after the close today. It was better than the $1.13 consensus loss estimate, but as usual investors looked for more information on when the Biologics Licensing Application (BLA) for INO-3107 will be filed.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said all the Biologics Licensing Application (BLA) modules for INO-3107 except those device-related will be done before the end of the year. They are “resolving” the manufacturing issue for the single-use device and are on track to submit the BLA in mid-2025. By the end of year, they will announce long-term clinical durability data on INO-3107.
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That’s the bulk of their focus and spending. They are working on next-level development plans for a Phase 3 trial of INO-3112 as a potential treatment for HPV-related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (throat cancer) through ongoing conversations with regulators in the European Union. They continued to advance plans for a Phase 2 trial of INO-4201 as a heterologous boost to Ervebo, the FDA licensed Ebola vaccine. A meeting is scheduled with the FDA in this quarter to discuss the proposed Phase 2 trial design. Finally, patients continue to be dosed in Regeneron’s GBM-001 trial with INO-5401. Regeneron and Inovio have discussed that an appropriate next step would be a controlled Phase 2 trial.
They finished the quarter with $84.8 million in cash and no debt, which can get them to the September 2025 quarter. They will need to raise cash or out-license a drug before then. INO is a Buy under $14 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: Early 2026
Probable time of next financing: March 2025 or after FDA approval in 2026
Medicenna (MDNAF – $1.22) made two presentations at the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC) annual meeting.
MDNA11 as a monotherapy showed a 30% objective response rate (3 of 10) in the dose expansion cohort among patients with advanced and/or metastatic solid tumors who had disease progression with immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy. The high-dose group of 20 patients had a 25% response rate (5/20), including one Complete Response and four Partial Responses. Two of the partial responses were in pancreatic cancer and the other two plus the Complete Response were in melanoma.
There have been no dose limiting toxicities or new safety signals observed in combination with Merck’s Keytruda, so the combination dose escalation trial is enrolling patients at the highest dose of MDNA11 evaluated in monotherapy. Of the first five patients enrolled, three showed Stable Disease and one colon cancer patient had a Partial Response. These numbers were OK and the combination therapy could lead to eventual FDA approval, but they weren’t stunning so the stock sold off. I’m leaving the $20 target but removing the “then maybe $40” potential until we see more efficacy.
MDNA113 is targeted at tumors expressing IL-13Rα2, like breast cancer. It uses their patented “masked” BiSKIT (Bifunctional SuperKine for ImmunoTherapy) technology to deliver an anti-PD1-IL-2 Superkine to the tumor microenvironment. In a mouse model, a single MDNA113 treatment achieved complete tumor regression of IL-13Rα2 expressing tumors with 100% survival, highlighting its potential to treat a vast range of malignancies, including immunologically “cold tumors” that annually affect over two million cancer patients worldwide. It also was tested in mouse models of glioblastoma (brain cancer) and showed complete tumor regression in a vast majority of animals. Buy MDNAF under $3 for a first target of $20.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: 2025
ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.26) uploaded a new corporate presentation in which they said: “We anticipate the restart of the MARIO study, after FDA’s lifting of the clinical hold, in Q1 of 2025.” Before that, they plan to start a Phase 1 safety trial of SCY-247 before the end of the year. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: Never
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($2,571.90) had its biggest drop in three years on Monday and booked its fourth straight loss today due to the strong dollar since Trump’s victory. This is a necessary retracement to continue to build the fractal energy for the next leg up. The fractal dimension says that was some serious consolidation. As I’ve been saying, consolidation requires either the passage of time or a big downdraft – or both. Painful as it is in the short term, it gets us closer to the fully consolidated 55 level. And then on to the next upleg.
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Miners & Related
Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.23) reported that good quarter I covered last week. After that, Canaccord kept their Buy rating and rather pointlessly raised their target price from $9.00 to $9.50. They said the September quarter results “delivered a very strong quarter, exceeding consensus financial estimates on all metrics. The beat was driven by very strong quarters at Palmarejo and Wharf, which drove gold production well above estimates, along with very low unit costs.” So that was worth 50¢?
They made the standard presentation at the RBC London Precious Metals Conference (SLIDES HERE), emphasizing the SilverCrest acquisition.
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The new slide was a 2025 cash flow comparison to other silver companies:
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Coeur is valued at 7.0x 2025 free cash flow, while First Majestic is at 8.3x and Hecla Mining is at 11.8x. Thus, they see a significant opportunity for the stock to be re-rated higher. I do, too, but the price of silver is what will drive all of these. CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Dakota Gold (DC – $2.19) announced significant resource expansion potential with new step-out drill results from 15 holes at the Richmond Hill gold project. This was a new area and they got intersections like 1.33 grams per ton (g/t) over 11.7 meters, 1.03 g/t over 33.8 meters, 1.48 g/t over 38.1 meters, and 1.67 g/t over 6.4 meters.
An updated resource estimate is planned for the March quarter that will include an additional 88 new drill holes totaling 17,000 meters. I expect both Indicated and Inferred resources to increase substantially. They will be announcing more results over coming weeks. DC is a Buy under $2.50 for a $6 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Robert Quartermain doesn’t find enough gold. Secondary risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.49) reported after the close last Thursday but didn’t hold their conference call until Friday morning. As I wrote last week, they reported September quarter revenues up 8.2% from last year to $44.7 million, just under the $45.8 million consensus estimate. They sold 17,359 attributable gold equivalent ounces compared to 21,123 ounces last year. Their cash operating margin hit $2,215 per attributable gold equivalent ounce, compared to $1,699 per ounce last year. That was the second consecutive quarter of record operating margins and generated $37.0 million in cash flows from operating activities, compared to $33.9 million. Their $5.8 million of net income compared to net income of $0.01 million in last September’s period.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Nolan Watson said ounces sold were a little low for two main reasons. First, they saw a slower than expected ramp at Greenstone, which is their newest stream to come online and is one of their most significant assets. This will accelerate over time. After the end of the quarter, Equinox declared commercial production at Greenstone. Recent throughput averaged over 20,000 tons per day, which is 76% of design capacity.
Second, high gold prices mean their copper and silver streams and royalties turn into fewer gold equivalent ounces. Currently, 70% of revenues are from precious metals. As Greenstone, Platreef, MARA, and Hod Maden mature – they are all 100% gold streams – over 85% of revenues will come from precious metals in 2029. From Platreef, MARA, and Hod Maden alone they expect eventual production to be between 70,000 to 85,000 ounces per year, which is as much or more production than they currently have from all 39 of their producing assets.
Even if you take Hod Maden out, they still are trading at half the market capitalization for the same production as their closest peers.
Click for larger graphic
Nolan said: “I believe we trade at a discount because some investors are scared that we will ruin this beautiful setup for Sandstorm by doing an equity offering. I can assure people that we will not do that. We have built the portfolio that we are proud of, which we can get cash flow from to not only pay down our debt and buy back shares, but the portfolio’s production has 100% growth coming in the future. I believe that this issue will take time to dissipate, because when we grew Sandstorm over the past 15 years, for the first 13 years, we needed to raise equity when we found new deals. This is no longer the situation. We have reached our critical mass. We have been shrinking our share float, and we will either merge our company, sell it, or grow organically within our means. As we stick to this plan over time, I believe people will gain confidence that we have a shrinking share float over time and not a growing one.”
Nolan repeated that based on their existing streams and royalties and the year-to-date outperformance of gold prices relative to other commodities, attributable gold equivalent ounces for 2024 are forecasted to be between 70,000 and 75,000 ounces. The company’s production forecast still is expected to reach approximately 125,000 attributable gold equivalent ounces within the next five years, based solely on streams and royalties that the Company has already bought and paid for.
During the quarter, they bought back $5.2 million of stock at an average price of $5.50 a share. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $88,510.75) hit new record highs above $90,000 as Standard Chartered Bank said the Republican sweep would allow the new government to push through positive policies for the digital assets sector, which could lead to total crypto market cap swelling 4x from $2.5 trillion currently to $10 trillion by the end of 2026. They see a number of tailwinds for crypto markets early in the new administration, including regulatory changes and a shuffle of positions at the SEC (hey, Gensler, don’t let the door hit you in the butt on your way out) that could lead to a more benign stance on digital assets. They wrote: “The rising tide should lift all digital assets; those most exposed to end-use cases are set to benefit most….we believe we have entered the crypto summer.”
MicroStrategy bought about 27,200 Bitcoin for around $2.03 billion between October 31 and November 10, its largest purchase since December 2020. They now hold 252,200 coins. CEO Michael Saylor expects to buy $42 billion more over the next three years – at current prices, that’s 3% of all the bitcoin in circulation. He thinks it will hit $13 million by 2045.
MicroStrategy has outperformed every major US stock, including Nvidia, since they started buying bitcoin in August 2020. I don’t understand why MSTR sells for a 100% premium to its bitcoin value. I assume many hedge funds are buying bitcoin options and shorting MSTR to capture the free money. I certainly wouldn’t short it without that hedge.
Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds had significant inflows totaling $817.5 million on Tuesday, despite a 3.4% decline in the price of bitcoin.
Click for larger graphic
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $49.73) led the Tuesday inflows, attracting $778.3 million, contributing to a total of $1.93 billion in inflows for the week to a total of $33.2 billion. It now has more assets than BlackRock’s iShares Gold Trust (IAU), which is 20 years old, and remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Ethereum (ETH-USD on Yahoo – $3,068.50), the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, surged past $3,000 last Saturday to its highest value since August 2. One reason is an expectation that the Trump Administration will relax regulatory barriers for the digital assets industry, fostering growth in decentralized finance, which is a sector dominated by ethereum.
Another reason is the Fed rate cut cycle, which increases ether’s appeal as an Internet bond, offering a fixed-income return through staking rewards. I expect both factors to continue to support ether in 2025. ETH-USD is a Buy.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin extensions outperform Ethereum.
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $23.47) also had a big inflow on Tuesday of $131.5 million, capturing almost all of the total $135.9 million that flowed into ethereum exchange-traded funds. ETHA is a Buy.
Primary Risk:Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $68.68
Crude oil showed a 2.089 million barrel increase last week, but the surprise was in gasoline: a huge 4.407 million barrel draw to the lowest level in 10 years for this time of year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) wrote: “ Global oil inventories plunged by 47.5 mb [million barrels] in September, to their lowest level since January, led by a sharp draw in OECD oil products and non-OECD crude oil stocks. OECD industry stocks fell by 36.4 mb to 2 799 mb, 95.3 mb below the five-year average. Provisional data suggest total global stocks decreased for a fifth consecutive month in October.”
Yet the IEA Continues To Overstate 2025 Oil Market Surpluses With Unrealistic Supply Growth Assumptions, now saying the 2025 oil market will be oversupplied by about one million barrels a day. They should change their name to BWCW – Boy Who Cried Wolf. The only way we could see lower oil prices is a dramatic reduction in demand due to a serious recession or OPEC+ decides to bankrupt the US shale industry by turning on the spigot – and that’s not in their best interests. With global oil inventories at multiyear lows in both absolute terms and on days of forward demand, oil prices are headed up.
Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research
For contrarians, this is a good sign: Energy is completely hated according to the latest BofA survey.
Click for larger graphic h/t @GringoInvesting
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – no trades – June closed at $65.47) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.45) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.97) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.70) is going to be an important player in both the domestic uranium and domestic rare earth elements markets. For the next several years, natural gas will continue to be the primary fuel for electricity production. Nuclear will steadily grow to eventually displace natty.
Click for larger graphic h/t @OwenGregorian
The lame duck Biden Administration revealed plans for the US to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050, with demand climbing for the technology as a round-the-clock source of carbon-free power. The US would deploy an additional 200 gigawatts of nuclear energy capacity by mid-century through the construction of new reactors, plant restarts, and upgrades to existing facilities. The plan calls for 35 gigawatts of new capacity operating in just over a decade and addresses domestic fuel supply and regulatory infrastructure.
I believe the strategy will have continued support under President Trump, who called for new nuclear reactors on the campaign trail as a way to help supply electricity to energy-hungry data centers and factories. The nuclear industry also has bipartisan support on Capitol Hill, as shown by the July enactment of a law giving the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission new tools to regulate advanced reactors, license new fuels, and evaluate breakthroughs in manufacturing that promise faster and cheaper buildouts. At last year’s United Nations COP28 climate conference, the US and two dozen other countries signed a pledge to triple nuclear capacity by 2050. The price of uranium is going much higher. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
EQT (EQT – $42.86) will benefit from the need for much more electricity production over the next decade. The US might face a 100 gigawatt shortfall in electricity for AI data centers, equivalent to 100 nuclear power plants.
Click for larger graphic h/t @ExponentialView
FERC’s rejection of the Microsoft deal to restart a reactor at Three Mile Island probably means that new AI data centers will have to be totally off-grid, purpose-built with no need for Federal approval. FERC only has authority when the grid crosses state lines. Captive power plants with data centers attached only require state approval. Later versions probably will use small and medium nuclear reactors, but for the next decade early versions will use natural gas, much of which will be provided by EQT.
EQT also has agreements with important customers exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG). European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said that during her conversation with President Trump they “touched upon” the issue of LNG imports. “We still get a lot of LNG via Russia from Russia, and why not replace it by American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices,” the EU chief said. Why not, indeed? EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.
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Your reading quarterly fund letters to see what money managers are doing Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 11/14/24. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $47.05) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $92.11) – Buy under $80, target price $120
Palantir (PLTR – $59.18) – Buy under $22, target price $100+
PayPal (PYPL – $85.79) – Buy under $68, target price $136
Snap (SNAP – $10.76) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
SoftBank (SFTBY – $28.60) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $8.85) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $62.67) – Buy under $60; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $7.10) – Buy under $14; 3- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $19.60) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.63) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $17.36) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
$20-for-$1 Biotech
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $2.76) – Buy under $6, target $30+
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.86) – Buy under $2, target $20
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.89) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Editas Medicines (EDIT – $2.77) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
Inovio (INO – $4.77) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
Medicenna (MDNAF – $1.22) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.26) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $30.84) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($30.62) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $28.02) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $35.00) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $23.92) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $35.23) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.23) – Buy under $5, target price $20
Dakota Gold (DC – $2.19) – Buy under $2.50, target price $6
First Majestic Mining (AG – $6.45) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.44) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.49) – Buy under $10, target price $2538.87
Sprott Inc. (SII – $41.90) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $88,510.75) – Buy
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $49.73) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,114.70) – Buy
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $23.47) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – no trades – June closed at $65.47) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.45) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.97) – Buy under $11; $24 target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.70) – Buy under $8; $30 target
EQT (EQT – $42.86) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $43.27) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Apple Computer (AAPL – $228.22) – Expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones
Meta (META – $577.16) – Expect to move back to Buy
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
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With R fff K Jr.as HHS nominee, how does that screw with the whole biomedical market?
Jr said in his speech he would close the revolving door of the FDA and phrama &Govt and that will straighten up the FDA – He says he is Pro choice on Vaccines and thats the way it ought to be.
Agree.
RFK, Jr has common sense. His book is a searing indictment of Fauci. I agree with his position on the danger of some vaccines, but he actually believes in choice and would not ban vaccines. For some groups of people, vaccines are a reasonable choice, assuming they understand the risk/benefit equation. As an integrative internist, I try natural treatment first and work hard to avoid use of most drugs. If the patient can’t follow my treatment program, I do prescribe a few drugs that are reasonably safe. TGTX’s Briumvi is a great advance for MS patients. RFK will endorse drugs that are safe. Most important he will try to improve transparency, improve consumer access to all the facts, and get rid of censorship of alternate treatments. Of all politicians, RFK is the one I would most like to meet.
he is against an Almighty Dark Pharma – we know some of them – but the real sincere Pharma who have always helped humanity , we are always grateful .
Vaccines have been one of the most successful things for humanity. Anti-Vaxx CS have been proven false.
you are so called anti vaxers are not stopping anyone who wants to have it – they are just saying dont force those who dont want it with punishment , give us a choice and RFK Jr is pro choice
Some vaccines have been proven reasonably safe and worthwhile. Not so with covid vaccines which were rushed to market without thorough testing. RFK is more knowledgable than the vast majority of doctors on this subject as well as on nutritional topics which most doctors know little about. His children’s health defense organization is an example of his caring health mission. Aside from his voice disorder, he is in excellent health with great physical fitness. Even partial success in getting kids to stop drinking soda and eating candy will prevent and cure more diabetes, obesity, cardiac and cancer cases than all the drugs combined.
well said.
You only have to look at the crap that schools put out for lunch for kids now. Sugar, chips, soda, top ramen (nothing but total crap and sodium with very little real nutrition) . Why, because that’s what parents are putting in their mouths and that’s what they eat) . 90 percent of gen x,y, and z survive on that crap along with numerous energy drinks( AKA Rockstar) with mega amounts of caffeine. Not to mention the amount of poison(pesticides) that they inject daily on food that they they eat. And the government doesn’t even make the food companies post those figures on the food they sell so no one can tell the difference!! Just go to Costco , go down the snack isle and watch what people are putting in their shopping carts, and then pick up the package and read the back side of the label. 6 to 12 or more ingredients you can’t recognize, don’t know what they are or know why they are in there. 50 years ago they started putting preservatives in food. The same ones are still in there now and we have 1000 times better supply chain accessibility. Food can go from farms to store shelves in days yet we have chemicals in our food to make them last for 25 months!! Government insanity. Now the US population is plagued with high rates of diabetes. Obesity, cancer of all kinds, heart disease , youth with mental issues, (just go on Tic Toc and witness the messed up generation who will be running the country in the future) . and a host of other health crisis. What a surprise!!
The two people who gave thumbs down to you have a mental disorder and/or sinister motives. You say the truth which some want to censor or deny. When I was a young child in school, we got milk–much better than anything today. Big Food and Big Pharma go hand in hand.
You got the same 3 thumbs down. Imagine that. No one wants to change the school menus because they and their kids are addicted to that crap and their kids at this point will throw a hissy fit. But that’s ok , all these people will be dead before 50 from cancer, heart disease , diabetes and obesity. (Helping to save Social Security system) Have you ever seen an obese person over 60? I haven’t. Most of them look like they are in the 30-40’s.
I’ll just rephrase your last 3 sentences. Obesity is characterized by inflammaging (inflammation + aging) resulting in a significantly shortened life span. Junk food causes all this. Evidently the 3 thumbs down people want to die early. They take their stubbornness to the grave and never learn.
and prochoice on childhood (and most) vaccines destroys their effectiveness.
djt and the gqp is destroying the whole idea of community/public health. why not follow that faux news guy and let surgeoms skip hand washing and gloves.
https://kirschsubstack.com/p/over-300-pages-of-evidence-from-the
Good info, suppressed by Big Pharma.
Just look at XBI, which was at 105 (a new high) a week ago. Today it is at 92 (a 12% drop) which is where it broke out from in July. I bought more MDNA and NGENF today. I would be remiss in failing to thank Donald Trump for the opportunity to buy at such low prices due to (at least in part) his nomination of RFK, Jr. as the next Secretary of Health and Human Services. Thanks, Don.
Chris, on NGENF there was this bearish YMB poster who claimed that the well known SCI victim, Codi Darnell was abandoned by the company. He claimed that the company merely intends to waste investors’ money doing trials. Her father, a dentist made contact with Dr. Jerry Silver to help found the company. This poster’s comment yesterday was deleted yesterday and reappeared verbatim today. The stock plunged yesterday near the close perhaps as a result of this. Codi is mentioned on the company’s site, but I couldn’t find any recent info to corroborate the poster’s claim. Sounds like nasty FUD to me. Do you know anything more?
we don’t know where the bottom is.
It is 100% true we don’t know where the bottom is. But I don’t think it will drop below $0.01 (nearly a 100% drop) but that is true for pretty much every stock. I look at the upside and see well over 1000%. I think we’ll have results by the end of May and I would rather pay $1.50/share than $10.00/share.
I get it and I include “bottom feeding” in my personal trading strategy!
The question for me is will rfk go down like the first Darth vader AG pick did? There could be a (temporary?) rebound of a number of stocks, until the next unqualified hhs pick.
John Miller, at the bottom of the last board, I replied to former subscriber Michael but it got directed to you. Sorry for the technical mishap that was obviously not directed to you.
Just now saw it. No worries. Thanks
MM so far 11/16/24 based on the administrations cabinet appointments the “people” are getting jest what they deserve.
Stability may be an elusive commodity for the next term however long that may last the president elect has been doing what he stated he would do. as I recall it went something like JFK will bring us Beautiful healthcare. i think i will stick with someone that has actually been to medical school and ended up ranked above Podiatrist, or proctologist. although the later should be in great demand considering the prevalence of cranial rectal impaction that our nation has embraced.
Trump seems determined to stop the endless wars, break the FBI/CIA grip on the country, and shrink the Federal government. None easy to do.
You know what happens when you break the FBI’s and CIA’s grip on the country? Criminals and rogue states get to do whatever they want. I like RFK, Jr., but not as head of HHS. Trump said Haitians were eating the dogs in Springfield, but RFK, with his worm-eaten brain, admits to being a dog eater. I hope he will do more good than harm if the Senate consents to his appointment. It is sad to think that in a nation of over 300M people the best candidate for HHS Secretary is RFK Jr and that Trump and Harris were the best candidates we could have for president. Bring back Scott Gottlieb!
Scott is happy on the Board of Directors at Pfizer.
I know it is inevitable that the intelligence agencies will end up running the show in any government, but assassinating a president really ought to be off the table, don’t you think?
Are you implying you believe the intelligence agencies were involved in the assassination of JFK?? Or the attempts on Gerald Ford? Or do you think they were behind the ear-piercing pf DJT? Or do you mean the presidente of some other country?
Yes. There is a lot more to the story of JFK’s assassination than Oswald and Ruby. JFK had a few great qualities such as fiscal responsibility. He supported the gold standard which the Deep State opposed. You won’t read about this in the leftwing mainstream media. Regarding the first assassination attempt on Trump, the corrupt Deep State found a crazy kid to carry out their missions. The public fell for the narrative that the Butler, Pa police were incompetent while the sinister truth of the Deep State was cleverly hidden. Hopefully the truth will be revealed soon.
You believe so many conspiracy theories I wonder how anyone can take you seriously. I’ve followed the stories about JFK since 1963 and have never seen anything to prove it was other than Oswald, whatever motivated him. And if you think the attempt in Butler Pa was arranged by the “Deep State” please explain why they didn’t give the kid a Mannlicher-Carcano rifle.
You get your news from the mainstream media (MSM), and ignore the possibility that the MSM is engaged in a coverup. The truth hurts. MSM has done a thorough job of hiding the chaos that might occur in the minds of weak people who might have to admit that the govt is not their friend, but in many cases works to censor free thinkers. The entire socialist state rests on trust that the govt will take care of everyone and knows better than the private sector in how to spend money productively, and justify high taxes and regulations to steal money from productive workers for the benefit of special interests.
Do you like speed bumps in residential neighborhoods? One or two amounts to sensible regulation. How about speed bumps on the highway every 1000 feet? That would slow traffic down from 60 MPH to 20. There would be severe traffic congestion. Worse, numerous accidents with vehicle damage and much other hardship imposed on good drivers who deserve to get to work on time and peacefully, avoiding mental stress over and beyond normal life stress. Do you understand that excessive regulation such as this is overall destructive?
I am an authority on the facts of over-regulation in the medical field, and the censorship/stupidity from academic medical political institutions against doctors with real expertise. MSM is the mouthpiece of these medico-politicos. Prestigious medical journals are highly political. Drug company research is a large fraction of articles. Drug ads are a major revenue source for these journals. Editors favor certain academics and shun others.
Same goes for coverage of other important news. MSM covered up the bad corruption and incompetence of Biden, and same for Harris as VP and presidential candidate along with her mental vacuous state. The corrupt NY Times in the 1930’s covered up and denied the reality of the Nazi Holocaust, and waited until Biden totally bombed in his debate with Trump before suddenly reversing their stance. They were among the biggest critics of Biden once the truth that they denied became clear. That was a desperate attempt to restore their image as a strong MSM actor.
And you get your news from what?… FOX? NEWSMAX?? The Epoch Times??? Some nut who thinks California wild fires are sparked by Jewish space lasers????
Name me one governmental agency that has tried to install “speed bumps on the highway every 1000 feet” and I’ll take your point. If you think Harris had a “mental vacuous state” wait till you see how Trump’s cabinet nominees like Gaetz, Gabbard, Noem and RFK Jr turn out.
“The corrupt NY Times in the 1930’s covered up and denied the reality of the Nazi Holocaust, and waited until Biden totally bombed in his debate with Trump before suddenly reversing their stance.” OK Rip Van Winkle, the rest of us have lived a lifetime in those 85-90 years.
You have a comprehension problem, to put it politely. With the speed bumps, I proposed it as a hypothetical over-regulatory scenario to help you understand the obvious ssbotage created by excessive regulation in many aspects of life that don’t need any regulation.
As an indoctrinated socialist, you fail to comprehend the historical record of chaos and destruction from big govt aggressive actions such as starting wars. Wars are started by bad govt tyrants. Socialism is an unstable state ready to degenerate into abject communism as more people are incentivized to get “freebie” benefits at the expense of productive people. Maybe you don’t even acknowledge that Harris supports big govt hypersocialism, along with her supporter, Bernie Sanders. But she was smart enough to remain silent on what she supports, because the truth spelled out would scare any sensible, honest person. So she said nothing of any substance, only meaningless platitudes to appeal to the ignorant. That is a vacuous mental state. She doesn’t understand economics and only is trained as a political talking point parrot to get gullible, ignorant Dem voters.
I learned about the NY Times’ suppression of the truth of the Holocaust from Mark Levin. He is a lawyer who had an active role for Reagan. He is a master of facts and logic and demolishes all leftist intellectuals, most of whom refuse to come on his show.
The Epoch Times was founded by Hong Kong dissidents from communist China. Their offices and production facilities are regularly sabotaged by the CCP, Chinese Communist Party, who censor and violently oppose anyone who publicly exposes the evils of that CCP regime.
You are ridiculously out of touch with reality. You actually need to move to China for enough time to find out the truth for yourself. But you won’t–you want to continue to collect your US govt benefits and pension, and isolate yourself from learning and dealing with the truth.
I assume MM is referring to foreign leaders and I do not see why that should be off the table. The people of the Dominican Republic are much better off than they would have been if Trujillo were not killed. I believe the people in Cuba would be much better off if Castro had been killed. If Hitler had been killed, millions of lives could have been saved. I think if Putin were dead, thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives could be saved. One death is better than thousands.
I agree the assassination of Castro would have been good (both for Cuba and the US) and that of Pooptin would be even better. They’re only “off the table” because it is illegal — though I doubt Trump and his henchpersons will follow the law.
That shows that some laws are truly bad, and must be broken. Assassination of murderers like Hitler, Castro, Putin is best for all.
Agree.
JFK. There is a reason the full files weren’t released 50 years after it happened as required by law, and we are about to find out what it was.
As I remember when the Warren Commission delivered its report some (but not all; some sooner) of the undisclosed material would be revealed in 75 years, but that may have been adjusted by law.
It doesn’t matter whether it is 50 or 75 years. The point is that the MSM and govt investigations often hide the truth. LEARN.
As an MD, I tell you that MD’s get a poor education. The first 2 years of basic science are factual and fine. After that, and through residency and then clinical practice, they are deluged with Big Pharma indoctrination. Medical students sell their biochemistry textbooks. But I continually refer to mine after 50 years, and I learn from knowledgeable DO, DC and other practitioners who find clinical relevance in the abstruse basic science. We were not taught ANY of this in school. So Big Pharma exploits this ignorance of 99.9% of MD’s. One example is the progestin drugs which are progesterone derivatives. Most MD’s think these derivatives are progesterone. NO, they aren’t. They have 80% similar chemical structure, but the 20% difference accounts for vastly different effects. I could show a child these structural differences. He can see better than 99% of MD’s what the obvious differences are, and can understand their different effects. That child is better educated on this topic than the prestigious professors in famous hospitals. These professors are not fit to shine the shoes of RFK, and yet they are the powerful slanderous mouthpieces used by the mainstream media which you believe. I know all this because I have interacted with them for the past many decades. These professors have been bought by Big Pharma which funds their studies and their institutions. Big Pharma advertising in specialty journals pays the salary of the MD editors of these journals.
Thanks for this. Quite shocking really, but not when it comes to greed, which knows no bounds.
MM – how does the new administrations Drill babe drill” platform for harvesting domestic oil and NG impact your USL and EQT top 5 calls?
It doesn’t. US oil production has flatlined because shale requires constant new wells (and therefore a low cost of capital) to maintain production. NG and LNG will grow for years until nuclear can replace NG, and EQT will capture a huge share of that growth.
SMCI is on the move. It was up on the open. It is cheap, cheap, and crazy cheap. I bought at 21.00 and change. After hours it went to $30 after the news broke about the Nasdaq and their new auditor. DYODD (Do your own due diligence).
so you’re not concerned their auditor quit??
I sure am. There has to be a big restatement coming and Hindinberg does solid short-sale work.It looks like a great company but I need to know what the accounting problems were and what the reeal numbers are.
MM – do you agree with Goldman on the gold trade: “Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which listed the metal among top commodity trades for 2025 and said prices could extend gains during Donald Trump’s presidency.”
CB buying, yes. A lot of the things Trump will do will increase inflation, but that is balanced somewhat by the likelihood of a short recession. On balance, I don’t see how the deficit can be dramatically reduced in the short term, so gold goes higher. But “top commodity trades” are more likely to be uranium, copper, natural gas, and oil.
I watched INO drop and keep dropping and we still get the future is bright…but it is a 95% loss. I bought this thing for a covid vaccine, then was going to sell original investment and let it ride or do michaels 2,000 to 2,000,000 or whatever that nonsense was. All I hear is the future is bright and all is see is INO and SCYX going straight down. Those of us without CFA, rely on Michael’s ability to see what we can’t. I couldn’t have seen many calls he has made. My only complaint is when it is obvious that the one trick pony has a broken leg, must we die with the horse? NVTA, DNDN, I can go on and on and on.
RKLB is turning out to be a big winner for MM. Too bad I missed it. My problem is that the overall batting average of NWI winners is so low that I couldn’t afford to make a concentrated investment in most of the choices. I’ve had to rely on my own judgment. I have concentrated investments in AKBA and TGTX, and big losses in SCYX, VLD and others.
Me too. I really thought the 3D printing was the future…stupid me. I saw Jeff Dunham design his puppet and was thinking that MM discovered something before anyone else. I guess there isn’t the demand I thought.
Right. At one point, MM showed a promotional video of a 3D printed violin being played. It sounded like a real violin made of wood. I should know–I am a violinist. 3D printing can create an object of any shape, but the sound of a real violin is related to its materials–wood of various types, not metal. Shame on me for not being wary of this fraudulent video. Of all people, it was I who should have known better.
MM neglects to properly consider the dilution risk in these long-term plays.
When SCYX was originally recommended in mid-2016 there were roughly 1.4M shares outstanding. As of Q3 there were over 37.9M, or 27 times the number of shares. A person buying at the time of the recommendation would now only have 3.7% of their original ownership. SCYX’s year-end earnings call, which is likely the next opportunity for any significant news, will be at the end of March if it’s timing is similar to this year’s call. With the rotation out of pharma & biotech stocks with the new administration it seems there is a good chance SCYX could fall below the $1 per share compliance threshold before then. It’s currently only 18 cents away with an ugly downward sloping chart.
While not nearly as extreme as SCYX, the quantity of INO shares have more than tripled since it was recommended.
Dilution is by far the largest contributor to the price declines in these two stocks as well as the vast majority of the bio-wrecks. MM’s investment philosophy of staying in & riding stocks down while they incur ever increasing dilution is a disastrous one.
My biggest lifetime investment losses have all been NWI stocks including DNDN, NVTA, ARTH, and VLD.
My biggest lifetime gain on one stock is RKLB which has WAY more than made up for all of the above losses plus a HUGE increase. I have to credit MM for this discovery. I have made more on RKLB than any other stock including NVDA.
It is weird that there are so few comments on this board about RKLB, only trashing each other over politics, and lamenting the losses on the bio techs.
I flat out don’t and won’t do any of the bio tech stocks recommended. Basically ALL have been cocker spaniels. Painfully learned my lesson on the above stocks – especially DNDN and ARTH. My wife is in big pharma / biotech sales and has been with multiple companies, frequently recruited to go to a new company and help build sales teams. So I know a bit about the industry, or at least I should know better.+
In bio tech, the big losers FAR outweigh the winners. Go to the Roulette table in Las Vegas instead. You are gambling against the house, and the house usually wins.
I only casually read this newsletter, mostly for amusement. I have been a subscriber for around thirty years. I much preferred it when Murphy was doing tech stocks, and he did the recorded calls I would listen to on Saturday mornings. I do have to credit Murphy with getting me interested in tech stocks in general though.
Great memory. I call them the “Back up the truck days”
You’ve lived a life of investing experience. You might wonder why I pursue a few speculative bios, with my disgust at the pharma industry. I got lucky buying TGTX several years ago at $5, adding last year at $7.25. Right now, it is in a mania at $35, and I refuse to add more at these prices.
I bought a tiny position in KERX, got disillusioned at the AKBA merger. I forgot about it for a few years, but got interested last year with Vafseo. I went all in and got my average cost down to $1.50 from $4.00. This was mathematically possible because I bought lots more last year than originally many years ago. If you want, follow two seemingly informed Stocktwits posters, hsainu, and buythehornz. Hsainu today wrote that CEO John Butler projects completing another big contract with a big dialysis provider so that 100% of the TAM of 550K patients will get Vafseo once it becomes the standard of care for dialysis patients with anemia. In addition, Butler has productive plans with the FDA to get approval for non dialysis which will quadruple the TAM. He is projecting $30 by end 2025 from quick uptake even in Q1, and $100 a few years later with non dialysis addition. If true, that will be my biggest ever financial success.
So far, my biggest win from MM is Taiwan Semiconductor. About 20 years ago, I got in around $8. Today, it’s about $200. I missed NVDA, but TSM is a proxy for it. When MM followed large tech, he did well. But like biotech, small tech is a crapshoot.
Let’s see what your wife thinks of AKBA.
New World Investor for 11/21.24 is posted. No newsletter next week – HAPPY THANKSGIVING!