Dear New World Investor:

The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.0% year-over-year in January, a tick above December’s 2.9%. The index for eggs increased 15.2% from December, the largest increase since June 2015. It accounted for about 2/3 of the total monthly food at home increase. Year-over-year egg prices have surged 53%.

The index rose 0.5% in January, the largest monthly headline increase since August 2023 and a slight acceleration from the 0.4% rise in December. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase.

The core CPI, which strips out the more volatile costs of gasoline and food like eggs, rose 3.3% over last year, That is an uptick from the 3.2% seen in December. December was the first time since July that the year-over-year core CPI showed a deceleration in price growth. The overstated shelter component continues to slow, rising 4.4% on an annual basis, the smallest 12-month increase in three years. The year-over-year increase of rent was the lowest since February 2022.

On a month-over-month basis, core prices in January climbed 0.4% over December, faster than December’s 0.2% monthly gain and the largest monthly rise since April 2023. The Bottom Line: The Fed is on hold until they see meaningful weakness in the labor market.

Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 0.5% since last Thursday to an all-time closing high today. The Index is up 4.0% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% and is up 3.3% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 2.8% as biotech remained in the toilet. It is up only 0.7% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.1% and now is up 2.3% in 2025.

The fractal dimension is about to drop back below the 55 level, confirming an uptrend has begun with a full load of energy.

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Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX – ScyNexis – Announce resolution of the manufacturing problem, lifting of clinical hold, restart of MARIO trial, maybe GSK files for hospital use approval
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model latest estimate for March quarter real GDP growth is +2.9%. A decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth was offset by an increase in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth.

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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, February 14
Valentines Day

Monday, February 17
Markets Closed – Presidents Day

Tuesday, February 18
SAND – Sandstorm Gold – After the close – Earnings release; conference call tomorrow
EQT – EQT – After the close – Earnings release; conference call tomorrow

Wednesday, February 19
EQT – EQT -10:00am – Earnings conference call
SAND – Sandstorm Gold – 11:30am – Earnings conference call
CDE – Coeur Mining – After the close – Earnings release; conference call tomorrow
ENVX – Enovix – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Thursday, February 20
AG – First Majestic – Earnings release; no conference call
CDE – Coeur Mining – 11:00am – Earnings conference call

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $241.39) is partnering with Alibaba to put their AI on Chinese iPhones, according to Reuters. This is a big win for Alibaba – their stock jumped 9% to a three-year high – and a politically astute move by Apple. Not only will it help iPhone sales in China, but they get a well-connected partner who benefits from every phone sold. I would not be surprised to see similar deals in the future with Baidu, ByteDance, and Tencent.

One of the biggest opportunities for Apple is using the iPhone and Apple Watch to monitor, manage, and predict changes in users’ health. In order to get FDA approval to use these as medical devices, they’ll need to do studies (although Phase 1-2-3 clinical trials are not required for devices). In 2019 they launched the Apple Women’s Health Study, the Apple Hearing Study, and the Apple Heart and Movement Study. They just started the Apple Health Study, their first major long-term study in five years, and you can opt in. I expect to see approvals beginning in three years with the bulk of them coming after 2030, so this is a long-term initiative. CEO Tim Cook has said he believes health features will be the company’s “most important contribution to mankind.”

Nearer-term, they made Apple TV+ and the Major League Soccer season pass available on Android phones. That’s an interesting change in strategy that lets the enemy into the walled garden. I don’t think it will hurt iPhone sales and because there are so many Android phones it could create a bump in Services revenue. AAPL is a HOLD – I expect to move it back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones.

Corning (GLW – $52.08) was raised from Hold to Buy by HBSC. They raised their target price from $51 to $60, citing increased clarity around strength in key end-market growth.

The company will pay a quarterly dividend of 28¢ per share on March 28 to shareholders of record on February 28. GLW is a Buy under $33 for a $60 target in 2025.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $105.73) reported December quarter revenues up 6.3% from last year to $7.57 billion, above the $7.15 billion consensus estimate. They earned $1.90 per share, also above the $1.70 estimate. HIV sales grew even faster than oncology, primarily driven by higher demand, favorable inventory dynamics, and higher average realized prices. Biktarvy sales alone increased 21% to $3.8 billion in the quarter.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and PREPARED REMARKS HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Daniel O’Day said: “We are planning for the potential launch of lenacapavir for HIV PrEP in Summer 2025, with its unique opportunity to extend the reach of HIV prevention. This potential in HIV, along with our strong and diverse portfolio, and improved operational efficiencies, positions Gilead to deliver increasing patient impact and compelling shareholder returns in the years ahead.”

The company guided for full-year 2025 revenue of $28.2 billion to $28.6 billion, a bit above the consensus estimate for $28.2 billion. They expect pro forma earnings of $7.70 to $8,10. The midpoint of $7.90 is above Wall Street’s $7.61 estimate.

During the quarter, Gilead paid $973 million in dividends and bought back $350 million of stock. They issued $3.5 billion in senior unsecured notes to finish the quarter with $10.0 billion in cash and raised the quarterly dividend to 79¢ a share. The stock moved over $100 on the news. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $90 for a first target of $120.

Meta Platforms (META – $727.09) booked its 18^th straight up day today, starting from $611.30 on January 16. It’s a record run for them and a remarkable move for any stock. META is likely to touch its lower Bollinger Band (BB) at some point, now at $599, either by falling back or having the BB rise enough to meet the price at that time. I continue to recommend Hold and wait to buy more at the lower BB.

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The company introduced Partnership for AI Training and Research (PATNR) Habitat, an open-source project that is a major advance in embodied AI. The project will improve how artificial intelligence interacts with and assists humans in real-world environments for more seamless human-robot collaboration.

The goal of PATNR Habitat is developing AI agents able to work alongside people in everyday tasks. These agents are trained in realistic 3D environments where they can learn to navigate, assist with household chores, and adapt to dynamic situations, bringing practical robotics applications closer to reality.

A key component of the Habitat is using high-fidelity simulation with thousands of models representing various objects and environments. The Habitat 3.0 simulator provides a rich, complex virtual environment where AI models can be tested and refined before being deployed in the real world. This ensures the robots can handle the unpredictability of human interaction, making them more effective when integrated into daily life.

Meta ran a Superbowl Ad for their Ray-Ban smart glasses with Chris Hemsworth, Chris Pratt, and Kriss Jenner:

META is a Hold – Buy or add whenever it hits its lower Bollinger Band, now under $599.

Micron‘s (MU – $95.62) main competitors are two South Korean companies, SK Hynix and Samsung. But Micron has reportedly become the first vendor for Samsung’s Galaxy S25 mobile DRAM supply. Rumor is this is due to performance issues stemming from Samsung’s inability to resolve overheating problems in its 1β (1-beta) process, which is used for manufacturing its mobile DRAM. The industry already considers Micron to have surpassed Samsung in the 1β process. MU is a Buy under $102 for a $140 first target.

Nvidia (NVDA – $134.97) is recovering as investors realize the release of the DeepSeek AI model is not stopping Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and others from spending billions of dollars on stronger, more accurate AI models and services that require thousands of Nvidia GPU systems. BofA wrote: “Our aggregate capex tracker now projects a +32% YoY increase to $363bn in CY25, a notable revision from the +22% YoY increase to $326bn estimated just two weeks ago.”

Click for larger graphic h/t Keith Fitz-Gerald

European leaders and companies unveiled about €200 billion of planned investments in data centers and computing clusters And global data center spend is set to accelerate for the rest of this decade, according to BofA.

Click for larger graphic h/t @Mayhem4Markets

NVDA is a Buy under $125 for a $180 first target.

Onsemi (ON – $50.62) reported December quarter revenues down 14.6% from last year to $1.73 billion, just short of the $1.76 billion consensus estimate. Power Solutions Group revenues fell 16% to $809.4 million. Analog and Mixed-Signal Group revenues were down 18% to $610.6 million .Sales declined less than 2% to $302.5 million at the Intelligent Sensing Group.

The company earned 95¢ per share pro forma, also just under the 97¢ estimate. For the March quarter, they guided for $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion and 45¢ to 55¢, both well below the $1.68 billion and 88¢ estimates.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Hassane El-Khoury said the 2025 business outlook “remains uncertain.” He said: “As we continue to navigate this market downturn, our actions over the last four years have proven we are a structurally different company that is well-equipped to navigate prolonged volatility. While 2025 remains uncertain, we remain committed to our long-term strategy. We will maintain our financial discipline, streamline our operations, and continue to deliver high-value, differentiated intelligent power and sensing solutions that position Onsemi to emerge even stronger.”

That is exactly what is going to happen. Their automotive and industrial markets are in a lingering downturn while the fast-growing robotics market is still small. Automotive revenue was down 8% from last year to $1.026 billion and industrial revenue fell 16% to $417 million. In prior downturns, ON had a negative gross margin, but now they have a pro forma gross margin of 45.3% and positive earnings and free cash flow.

During the quarter, they launched the Treo Platform to enter the high-performance analog and mixed signal markets – power management integrated circuits, sensor interfaces, communications devices, and application-specific standard products

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Over the coming years, ON will see a recovery in their traditional markets and – most important – be recognized as a leader in technology for EVs and humanoid robots. They have superior products focused on several large, fast-growing markets.

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It’s a well-managed, large (26,000 employees) S&P 500 company that is very shareholder focused:

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In three years, they expect to boost free cash flow from 17.1% of revenues in 2024 to 25% to 30% in 2027 – $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion – and return half of that to shareholders.

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This is a great stock for the conservative end of your Barbell Portfolio. Wall Street knocked the stock down 6.5% on Monday to their lowest level since June 2022 after the guidance. Take advantage of it. ON is a Buy under $60 for a $100 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $117.36) CEO Alex Karp did a really interesting Ask Me Anything on X yesterday.

Karp didn’t get to my question. I asked if Palantir’s software could be the basis of an Enterprise Resource Planning system, which would compete with and probably quickly dominate Oracle and SAP in a huge market. Someone is going to do it.

Looking at what Elon Musk is doing, I think it is possible that Palantir is the product and DOGE is the salesforce. Getting control of and managing government spending includes short- and long-term planning, identifying and monitoring revenue sources, and – most important – tracking and auditing expenditures. That’s what Palantir does.

BofA raised their target from $75 to $90. UBS went from $80 to $105. They said: “Palantir reported numbers that stood in sharp contrast to the mixed results from Microsoft and ServiceNow last week, marked by 36% total revs growth, an unusually high 7.3% revs beat (compared to 3-4% in each of the preceding three quarters) and US commercial TCV growth of 134%, all of which flowed through to material margin/cash flow beats.”

RBC nearly quadrupled their $11 target to $40. Morgan Stanley raised from $60 to $95. They said: “Given the strength of the outlook, we acknowledge that we were wrong about our core fundamental catalyst of slowing growth below the 30% level due to the tougher compares in 2025.”

After the December quarter report, Wall Street substantially raised their quarterly revenue estimates. (The estimates after 2027 come from one analyst.)

Click for larger graphic h/t @em013L and @arny_trezzi

Palantir’s revenue by geography shows how slow Europe is catching on. In the AMA, Karp said 13% of PLTR revenues are growing at only 4% a year, which is driving him nuts. Imagine what happens when Europe wakes up and starts accelerating their AI adoption on top of US growth.

Click for larger graphic h/t @em013L and @arny_trezzi

Anirudh Sanga of Palantir gave an interview on how Palantir powers retail operations They are now building a rapid-response tariff solution for the consumer industry.

PLTR is a Buy under $22 for a $100+ target.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $76.66) expanded a strategic collaboration with Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings to use PayPal as a checkout option for cruises. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings already uses PayPal Braintree for credit-card processing for both reservations and all shipboard payments.

PayPal’s Investor Day is coming up on February 25. It should move the stock up. PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.

Snap (SNAP – $11.14) developed an AI model that generates high-resolution images for mobile devices in seconds. It is relatively small, yet able to produce high resolution images in around 1.4 seconds on an iPhone 16 Pro Max. It runs entirely on the phone, significantly reducing computational cost compared to large server-reliant models. It will be offered to Snapchatters in coming months. SNAP is a Buy under $11 for a $17+ target.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $31.60) reported December quarter revenues up 3.3% from last year to $11.87 billion. They lost $1.68 per share due primarily to losses at the Vision Funds, partly offset by gains on T-Mobile shares. On the conference call (VIDEO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CFO Yoshimitsu Goto said they have a big pipeline of future IPOs:

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They spent a lot of time on the $500 billion Stargate project to accelerate the AI revolution. It starts with $100 billion to build data centers with project financing. Frankly, I don’t think this project is a good idea – OpenAI may not be the right partner. But we’re buying SoftBank at half of the net asset value of their holdings in publicly traded companies and getting CEO Masayoshi Son’s ability to build wealth in the digital age for free.

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SoftBank’s Cristal project looks like a long-term winner to me as it will eventually replace current Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems. But there will be competitors – see the Palantir writeup above.

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They finished the quarter with $32.4 billion in cash and are only 42% through their stock buyback program. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Small Tech

Fastly (FSLY – $7.97) reported December quarter revenues up 2.0% from last year to a record $140.57 million, a bit above the $138.67 million consensus estimate. But they lost 3¢ per share versus expectations for breakeven. For the March quarter, they guided for $136.0 million to $140.0 million and a pro forma loss of 5¢ to 9¢ compared to the $137.14 million and 1¢ loss estimates. The stock fell 20.8% today.

The Enterprise customer count was 596 in the fourth quarter, up 20 from the September quarter. But their top 10 customers accounted for only 32% of revenue in the quarter compared to 40% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Revenue from the top 10 customers declined 18% year-over-year compared to revenue growth of 16% year-over-year from customers outside the top ten. Thur annual revenue retention rate was 99.0% in 2024. Fastly is still suffering from price cutting by other companies, even after the Edgio bankruptcy.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and INVESTOR SUPPLEMENT HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management guided full year 2025 revenues to a range from $575.0 million to $585.0 million with a pro forma loss of 9¢ to 15¢ per share. The consensus was expecting $575.84 million and a 3¢ profit.

The problem is price pressures in plain vanilla content delivery. I did not expect this because I thought the Edgio bankruptcy in September and Akamai’s subsequent purchase of their assets would relieve the price pressures. I believe the old Edgio contracts are running out now, but Fastly’s weak guidance for the March period either means that’s wrong or they are just setting a low bar to beat.

Fastly’s real strength is in the add-ons they bring to content delivery to let customers control various factors at the edge. They are especially strong in cybersecurity. I want to give them one more quarter to show they have bottomed and can guide for faster growth. I am moving FSLY to a Hold until we see the next quarter.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.18) integrated the widely-used Synopsys Synplify synthesis tool into its FPGA User Tools to accelerate FPGA-based design cycles and let engineers work in a familiar design environment. At the same time they released version 2.9 of their Aurora eFPGA design tool with improved performance and ease of use. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $28.20) CFO Adam Spice presented at the TD Cowen Aerospace & Defense Conference (AUDIO HERE). He pointed out that over 70% of their revenues come from non-launch activities. Their plan for the future is to deploy satellites for their own services.

Their 59^th Electron launch put five new satellites in orbit for the French Internet-of-Things (IoT) constellation operator Kinéis. That’s mission #4 of a 5-launch deal to build out @KineisIOT’s IoT constellation.

The company delivered another Pioneer spacecraft for Varda Space Industries to Vandenberg Space Force Base in preparation for launch. It’s Rocket Lab’s third Pioneer spacecraft produced for Varda, and the second they delivered for launch within a month. The spacecraft will support Varda’s next orbital processing and hypersonic reentry mission, W-3. Earlier this month, Rocket Lab’s second spacecraft for Varda, W-2, successfully launched and is currently operating on orbit. Carrying payloads from the Air Force Research Laboratory and NASA’S Ames Research Center, W-2 will also conduct research to expand the capability and capacity of Varda’s pharmaceutical processing hardware in orbit before it’s hypersonic re-entry and recovery in South Australia.

Rocket Lab also will soon launch a satellite on a dedicated Electron mission, the first of a bulk order of multiple missions for real-time space-based intelligence company BlackSky. It is the ninth launch for BlackSky since 2019.

BryceTech collected and analyzed data on China’s expanding space operations, offering insights into their advancements in satellite technology and exploration. Download the report: https://brycetech.com/reports/report-documents/china-space-activity-2024/.

Click for larger graphic h/t @_BryceTech

RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.41) presented at the Oppenheimer Healthcare Life Sciences Conference (AUDIO HERE). We’ll see six-week data, which is the primary endpoint in the first Phase 3 pivotal trial, in the June quarter. Then we’ll get 26-week data in the first half of 2026 and the 26-week data from the second Phase 2 trial in the second half of 2026.

This will be the first Phase 3 data for psychedelics. They emphasized that the trials were designed in consultation with the FDA to meet the concerns about functional unblinding. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2027
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Editas Medicine (EDIT – $1.24) has an easier path to a portfolio of gene therapy cures. The FDA has been convinced and is now receptive to the idea of a CRISPR basket trail in which the companies would be allowed to make a gene editor for one disease or one mutation that causes a rare genetic disease and later, with minimal work, would be allowed by the FDA to design a new editor that targets a different mutation that causes the same disease or a related one without the need to conduct a whole new clinical trial all over again.

This is a big deal because this decision will save a lot of time and money for both rare disease companies and the patients themselves. EDIT is a Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices.
Primary Risk: Other companies’ gene-sequencing drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Approved; Owned: Preclinical.
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: 2026 or never

Inovio (INO – $2.14) also presented at the Oppenheimer Healthcare Life Sciences Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Jacqueline Shea said they are still targeting the Biologics Licensing Application for INO-3107 in mid-2025. It will be reviewed under the Accelerated Approval timeline of six months or less. She said they are “on track” to resolve the Cellectra manufacturing issue. They will be ready to launch at yearend.

INO-3107 will be an immediate winner – that’s why the FDA will give them accelerated approval based on a Phase 2 trial. It’s effective against HPV-11, which accounts for the worst cases. There’s no worry about preexisting immunity and it can be given as an outpatient treatment.

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They can complete their next steps and submit the BLA by midyear.

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There are more drugs teed up after the INO-03107 approval. In the current quarter we will get the first clinical data from the Phase 1 trial of INO-5401. They will finalize the design of a Phase 3 trial of INO-3112 in the first half of this year.

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INO is a Buy under $14 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: Early 2026
   Probable time of next financing:After FDA approval in 2026

Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.96) was our third presenter at the Oppenheimer Healthcare Life Sciences Conference (AUDIO & SLIDES HERE and LATEST CORPORATE SLIDES HERE). There is a lot of data coming in the first half of this year. They will start the expansion phase of their Phase 2 combination trial of MDNA-11 with Merck’s Keytruda, and we’ll see data from that throughout the second half of the year.

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They have enough cash to get through all of these into mid-2026. The combination trial with Keytruda is a big deal because many people don’t respond to checkpoint inhibitors (CPI) but do if the CPI is given in combination with MDNA-11. The first nine patients in the combination trial resulted in one complete response and one partial response, both in tumor types that don’t normally respond to checkpoint inhibitors.

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An FDA-approved combination would be heavily marketed by Merck in order to boost Keytruda sales at no cost to Medicenna. Having said that, my original reason for recommending Medicenna still stands: MDNA-11 is a much better Interleukin-2 drug than the blockbuster Proleukin.

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Proleukin has terrible side effects and has to be administered in an Intensive Care Unit. It has a short half-life and has to be given every eight hours for five days. MDNA-11 is more effective, has only a few transient side effects, and is dosed once every two or three weeks. The reduction in stress on patients and doctors and the dramatic reduction in cost by not requiring an ICU means it will rapidly replace Proleukin.

Medicenna is not a one-trick pony. They have very productive R&D spending.

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With a fully diluted market capitalization of only $100.8 million at today’s close, Medicenna is dramatically undervalued. Buy MDNAF under $3 for a first target of $20.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: 2025

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($2,956.70) is about to book its ninth week in a row of rising gold prices, yet I don’t think people realize how early we could be in this gold bull market.

Click for larger graphic h/t @Crescat_Capital and @marketplunger1

The fractal dimension certainly is showing an uptrend. Because it didn’t start from a fully consolidated fractal level, I am doubtful that this is the big move up. It’s certainly enjoyable, though.

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Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $7.18) shareholders and SilverCrest shareholders both approved the merger. Coeur named two new Board members.

Eric Fier is a Certified Professional Geologist (USA) and Engineer (Canada) with over 35 years of experience in the international mining industry, including with exploration, acquisition, development and production of numerous mining projects in Guyana, Chile, Brazil, Central America, Mexico, and Peru.

Pierre Beaudoin is a mineral processing professional with over 30 years of international operating and project development experience. He was the Chief Operating Officer of SilverCrest until 2023 and a Board member after his retirement. CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Dakota Gold (DC – $3.25) released the Initial Assessment on the Richmond Hill Oxide Heap Leach Gold Project. They knocked the ball out of the park with a Measured & Indicated 3.65 million ounces worth over $10 billion. Even after this week’s 26.5% jump, Dakota has a market capitalization of only $310 million.

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On last Friday’s webinar (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE), management said they now have “a pathway to near-term production.” They will release an Initial Assessment with Cash Flow in mid-2025. It will outline a potential at surface heap leach operation similar to Coeur’s profitable Wharf Mine located 3.1 miles south of Richmond Hill. Wharf is expected to generate over $100 million in free cash flow in 2024 from approximately 90,000 ounces of gold. Additionally, the Report has identified a heap leachable Inferred resource of 2.61 million ounces.

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The heap leachable resource remains open to the north and in the southeast area of Richmond Hill. Both areas are currently in the process of being permitted for 2025 drilling with the goal of expanding the resource with material amenable to heap leaching. Additionally, drilling is planned to begin converting resource to reserves and gathering additional metallurgical data.

Complimenting the heap leachable resources, the Report also identified significant mined resources and outlines a combined heap leach and mined Measured & Indicated resource of 4.64 million ounces.

Barrick Gold extended Dakota’s option period for the Richmond Hill option and the Homestake option agreements until December 31, 2028 in return for additional annual payments of $170,000 and $340,000 respectively.

CEO Robert Quartermain said: “In less than three years since commencing drilling, we have outlined a significant near-surface heap leachable resource that we expect to advance through economic studies to Feasibility, and into commercial production as soon as 2029.”

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DC is a Buy under $2.50 for a $6 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Robert Quartermain doesn’t find enough gold. Secondary risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

First Majestic (AG – $5.70) said in 2025 they expect to achieve total attributable production from their four operating mines in Mexico of between 27.8 million to 31.2 million silver equivalent ounces, including 13.6 to 15.3 million ounces of silver. The increase in forecasted silver production compared to 2024 is due to the addition of attributable production from the Cerro Los Gatos Silver Mine as a result of the acquisition of Gatos Silver, as well as an increase in silver production from Santa Elena and from La Encantada, following a return to normal operations at La Encantada in the fourth quarter of 2024.

They expect consolidated 2025 all-in sustaining costs to be within a range of $19.89 to $21.27 per silver equivalent ounce. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin‘s (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $96,359.34) action since the December high looks similar to the action after the April 2023 high or the March 2024 high. In both cases it eventually hit the 20-week moving average or lower before turning up again, so a touch of the 20-week moving average (currently around $90,000) probably is coming in February. That would be a welcome buying opportunity.

Click for larger graphic h/t @CyclesFan

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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $54.72) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $20.10) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy.
Primary Risk:Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $71.44

Oil picked up a bit and then slid back as it appeared President Trump may be about to end the Ukraine war. But the biggest story in energy that few are paying attention to is the material disappointment in US oil production. Since January 1, we’ve been drawing one million barrels of crude oil a day out of global storage, despite the Russian and Iranian oil floating storage increase.

Chevron just announced that in 2024 their oil and gas reserves fell 12% year-over-year to their lowest level in a decade, as they replaced just 45% of their production. The market ignores just how mature many oil producing basins are, evidenced in falling well productivity and rising gas/oil ratios.

Chris Wright, our new Secretary of Energy, showed his nine pillars energy plan for the US:

Click for larger graphic h/t @chigrl

Note that “drill baby drill” is not on the list. His plan is a practical, pragmatic approach. It means for the next few years, higher oil prices are inevitable.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – no trades) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $38.27) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.09) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.

EQT (EQT – $53.20) has the weather going for it.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

In Europe, gas storage has dropped sharply compared to previous years.

Click for larger graphic h/t @chigrl

EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $40.24) is about to move up with copper prices.

Click for larger graphic

FCX is a buy under $44 for a $65 target within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.

* * * * *

* * * * *

Your reading good news Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 2/13/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Corning (GLW – $52.08) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $106.73) – Buy under $90, first target price $120
  Micron Technology (MU – $95.62) – Buy under $102, first target price $140
  Nvidia (NVDA – $134.97) – Buy under $125, first target price $180
  Onsemi (ON – $50.62) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
  Palantir (PLTR – $117.36) – Buy under $22, target price $100+
  PayPal (PYPL – $76.66) – Buy under $68, target price $136
  Snap (SNAP – $11.14) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $31.60) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $11.03) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $71.33) – Buy under $60; 3- to 5-year hold
  PagerDuty (PD – $19.48) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.18) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $28.20) – Buy under $13, target price $30+

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $3.13) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.13) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.41) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $1.24) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $2.14) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.96) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.16) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($32.97) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $34.42) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $39.38) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $26.85) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $37.36) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $7.18) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  Dakota Gold (DC – $3.24) – Buy under $2.50, target price $6
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.70) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.35) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.66) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $43.83) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $ 96,539.34) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $54.72) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,653.81)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $20.10) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – no trades) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $38.27) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.09) – Buy under $11; $24 target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.03) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $53.20) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $40.24) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $241.39) – Expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones
  Meta (META – $727.09) – Expect to move back to Buy
  Fastly (FSLY – $7.97) – Hold for March quarter results
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $30.90) – Hold for buyout at $40+

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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