Dear New World Investor:

It’s wild how quickly people forget Trump’s negotiation tactics.
Step 1: Say something completely ridiculous that overshoots his desired outcome.
Step 2: Retreat from that stance to something more “reasonable” that was the intended goal all along.
Step 3: Get what you really wanted.
Step 4: Repeat.

Click for larger graphic h/t @AndreasSteno

Last Friday’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – was right on expectations. The year-over-year core rose 2.8% in December, the same as November. The month-over-month core rose 0.2%, a tenth faster than November’s 0.1%. No big deal.

Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance

Over the past ten sessions, the average stock has been advancing, pushing the 10-day cumulative ratio of advancing to declining issues above 2.02 and triggering a breadth thrust. While such signals are typically most valuable following significant corrections or bear markets, their appearance near a high, as seen now, confirms the bullish market environment already in place.

Click for larger graphic h/t @sentimentrader

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 edged up 0.2% since last Thursday. The Index is up 3.4% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite also edged up 0.5% and is up 2.5% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) added 1.0%. It still is (barely) leading the parade, up 3.7% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 was flat for the week, so still up 3.5% in 2025.

The fractal dimension has enough energy to start a new trend, but it’s marking time going sideways. Remember that a new trend can be in either direction but usually is in the same direction it was going when the consolidation began – in this case, up.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch in January
SCYX ScyNexis – Announce resolution of the manufacturing problem, lifting of clinical hold, restart of MARIO trial, maybe GSK files for hospital use approval
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model for March quarter real GDP growth is +2.9%. That’s well above the consensus of Blue Chip economists…as usual.

Click for larger graphic

Tomorrow’s January payrolls number is expected to be +170,000, less than December’s +256,000. This week we learned that the number of job openings fell to its second lowest level of 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, at 7.6 million It’s clear that the labor market has gradually cooled and remains in a slow-to-hire, slow-to-fire equilibrium.

Click for larger graphic h/t @NickTimiraos

Dollar Death Watch

Everyone thinks the dollar will get stronger and stronger under President Trump and is waiting for the euro to go under $1, which means three things:

1. Gold should be weak – it’s not
2. 2025 will be the summer of European vacations
3. The pain trade is a weaker dollar

So what would make the dollar weaken? Beyond the tit-for-tat tariffs turning out to be mostly negotiating tactics? The stronger dollar creates some trade flow distortions and directly weighs on corporate earnings, which weighs on growth. Slower growth weighs on long-term Treasury interest rates, which drags the dollar down.

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, February 7
January payrolls – 8:30am – +170,000 expected (probably too low); December was +256,000
DG – Dakota Gold – 11:00am – Webinar on the Richmond Hill Oxide Heap Leach Gold Project

Monday, February 10
ON – Onsemi – 9:00am – Earnings conference call

Tuesday, February 11
MDNAF – Medicenna – 9:20am – Oppenheimer Healthcare Life Sciences Conference
Short Interest – After the close
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call

Wednesday, February 12
SFTBY – SoftBank – 2:30am – Earnings conference call
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 8:40am – Oppenheimer Healthcare Life Sciences Conference
MU – Micron – 8:50am – Wolfe Research Auto, Auto Tech, and Semiconductor Conference
RKLB – Rocket Lab – 9:00am – TD Cowen Aerospace & Defense Conference
INO – Inovio – 3:20pm – Oppenheimer Healthcare Life Sciences Conference
FSLY – Fastly – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call

Friday, February 14
Valentines Day

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $233.22) partnered with SpaceX and T-Mobile US for iOS 18.3 to put Starlink on iPhones. T-Mobile had previously said that its Starlink services was exclusively available on Samsung phones. Apple has historically offered a satellite feature powered by Globalstar that allows users to send texts and reach emergency services when they find themselves out of cellular range.

Elon Musk said that users can expect support for images, music, and podcasts through current Starlink technology, with plans for video support to be added in future updates. AAPL is a HOLD – I expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $98.04) reports earnings next Tuesday. Analysts expect revenues to be up only 0.45% from last year to $7.15 billion with earnings of $1.70 per share. March quarter guidance should be for $6.65 billion and $1.80. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $90 for a first target of $120.

Meta Platforms (META – $711.99) set a new all-time high today and closed up for the 14^th straight session, its longest rally since an 11-day run that ended in September 2015. Wall Street finally has figured out what we knew for years: Meta will be a main beneficiary of AI as they uses it to improve both ad targeting and user engagement.

There’s a rumor that Meta will introduce six AI-powered wearable devices in 2025. META is a Hold – Buy or add whenever it hits its lower Bollinger Band, now under $573.

Nvidia (NVDA – $128.68) posted explanations of why they will benefit from the DeepSeek AI model: Accelerate DeepSeek Reasoning Models With NVIDIA GeForce RTX 50 Series AI Pcs and DeepSeek-R1 Now Live With NVIDIA NIM.

Instead of a monolithic AI model where all the parameters are active at all times (e.g., traditional models with 1.8 trillion parameters), DeepSeek adopts an expert system approach for its Reasoning Engine. Their AI model has 671 billion parameters, but only activates 37 billion at any one time. This is similar to having a large team of experts but only consulting the relevant ones for specific tasks. It reduces computational load and improves energy efficiency. This architecture not only lowers operational costs but also enhances the model’s adaptability and performance for specialized tasks.

Instead of offering direct responses, AI models like DeepSeek-R1 perform reasoning through the chain-of-thought method to generate the best answer. Performing this sequence of inference passes — using reason to arrive at the best answer — is known as test-time scaling. That is why accelerated computing is critical.

As models are allowed to iteratively “think” through the problem, they create more output tokens and longer generation cycles, so model quality continues to scale. Significant test-time compute is critical to enable both real-time inference and higher-quality responses from reasoning models like DeepSeek-R1, requiring larger inference deployments. Nvidia has made the DeepSeek model available for developers on build.nvidia.com. The DeepSeek-R1 NIM microservice can deliver up to a blazing 3,872 tokens per second on a single Nvidia H200 system.

I jumped on the drop in Nvidia because there is still tremendous use for their compute power in the future as this technology matures. The big impact is to Google and OpenAI, who can no longer command premiums for what DeepSeek offers for free. NVDA is a Buy under $125 for a $180 first target.

Onsemi (ON – $52.44) reports earningss next Monday. Analysts expect revenues to be down 12.9% from last year to $1.76 billion due to weaker auto sales, with earnings of 97¢ per share. March quarter guidance should be for $1.69 billion and 90¢. Those are low bars to beat. ON is a Buy under $60 for a $100 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $111.28) clobbered December quarter estimates and guided both the March quarter and full-year 2025 above the consensus. December quarter revenues rose 36.0% from last year to $827.52 million, far above the $781.24 million consensus. US commercial revenue grew 64% year-over-year while US government revenue grew 45%. They are signing new customers rapidly – their total customer count increased 13% from the September quarter and 43% year-over-year.

During the quarter, they closed a record 129 deals over $1 million, including 58 deals over $5 million, of which 32 were over $10 million. Their remaining deal value from US commercial customers grew 47% from the September quarter and 99% year-over-year to $1.79 billion.

Pro forma earnings of 14¢ a share easily trounced the 11¢ estimate. On the conference call (AUDIO (Youtube) HERE and SLIDES HEREand CEO LETTER HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they guided the March quarter to revenues in a tight range between $858 million and $862 million, substantially above the $799.36 million consensus outlook. They guided the full 2025 year to an equally tight range from $3.74 billion to $3.76 billion compared to the Wall Street estimate for $3.53 billion. They also said Us commercial revenue will exceed $1.0 billion for the first time, hitting $1.08 billion. They expect income from operations of $1.551 billion to $1.567 billion and free cash flow of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion versus $1.25 billion in 2024. The stock shot up 23.7% in after-hours trading.

Operating margins are steadily expanding:

Click for larger graphic

It was only a couple of years ago that Wall Street said Palantir would not be able to penetrate US commercial customers:

Click for larger graphic

CEO Alex Karp wrote: “We are still in the earliest stages, the beginning of the first act, of a revolution that will play out over years and decades…The business we have built has now developed its own internal momentum and strength, its own interior life and forms of untamed organic growth, with the output that we are seeing far surpassing what we are investing. A software juggernaut has indeed emerged. We have the products and reach of an established incumbent and the speed, growth, and agility of an insurgent startup. It is that most lethal of combinations that we have been seeking to build, and the future is now coming into sharp focus…We have been preparing for this moment diligently for more than twenty years.”

Palantir finished the year with $5.2 billion in cash and no debt. PLTR is a Buy under $22 for a $100+ target.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $78.57) reported a complicated quarter and gave complicated guidance. Revenues rose 4.0% from last year to $8.37 billion, just above the $8.26 billion Wall Street expected. Net income of $1.12 million or $1.11 per share also was just above the $1.08 billion and $1.06 per share expected. All right so far, but…

Pro forma income adjusted for stock option grants was $1.21 billion, below the $1.44 billion expected. On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management guided for March quarter earnings of $1.11 to $1.13 per share, above the $1.07 estimate. They guided for full-year 2025 earnings of $4.80 to $4.95 a share, well above the $4.67 estimate and 2024’s $3.99.

BUT again the pro forma earnings guidance fell short: $1.15 to $1.17 for the quarter versus the $1.36 estimate and $4.95 to $5.10 for the year versus the $5.83 estimate and 2024’s $4.65. The stock fell 12% on the news.

CEO Alex Chriss said: “PayPal had a strong finish to a successful 2024 with results that were better than we expected. We set out at the beginning of 2024 to narrow our focus, improve execution, and reposition the business. One year later, I’m proud that we’ve laid a strong foundation for long-term, profitable growth across the company’s most important areas. The improvements we made to branded checkout, peer-to-peer, and Venmo, plus the progress we made on our price-to-value strategy, are beginning to show up in our results. The strong momentum we’ve created sets us up well for 2025, which is about scaling adoption. I’m excited to share more at our Investor Day later this month [Feb. 25].”

As I said when I recommended the stock, the important metric I watch is transaction margin dollars, which increased a healthy 7% to $3.9 billion in the quarter and 7% to $14.7 billion for the year. They are targeting $15.2 billion to $15.4 billion in 2025. Excluding the interest they earn on customer balances, transaction margin dollars grew 5% in 2024 and are forecast to grow another 5% in 2025 as they focus on their key initiatives:

Click for larger graphic

PayPal’s massive database can be used to personalize how consumers use their products, which should give them a larger share of customer relationships. The company processed 26 billion transactions last year, providing data for AI-powered products like the Fastlane checkout system (about 25% of Fastlane’s new users were also new to PayPal) and Advanced Offers, which uses payments data fed to the AI engine to inform merchants’ incentive marketing based on specific consumers.

Chriss said: “AI is opening a huge opportunity for us. We are working with merchants so when consumers show up at checkout it’s not a static button anymore. It’s a personalized button that understands the profile of that consumer and the journey they have been on with that merchant to present them with a reward, or cash back, or even a BNPL loan at the moment of checkout.”

He said that during the December quarter engaged or monthly Venmo users grew 4% to 64 million and the number of Venmo accounts that were used for more than transfers grew 24%. $18 billion flows through Venmo each month, and 80% of that money leaves Venmo within 10 days. PayPal will encourage consumers to spend more accumulated funds from person-to-person transfers instead of transferring the funds to other accounts.

They bought back 15 million shares of stock in the quarter for $1.2 billion, bringing the 2024 total to 92 million shares for $6.0 billion. Management announced a new $15 billion stock buyback program to add to the remaining $4.86 billion in the current program.

I don’t think the problem here is with PayPal’s execution. The problem is that expectations were too high. Turning around a $35 billion company is like turning around a battleship – it takes time. PayPal clearly is heading in the right direction and is very shareholder-conscious.

The company had $4.3 billion in net cash at the end of the year. PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.

Snap (SNAP – $10.69) December quarter revenues increased 14% from last year to $1.56 billion, right on the $1.55 billion consensus estimate. Active advertisers more than doubled due to their improvements in the advertising platform driving improved advertiser performance, especially for small- and mid-sized businesses.

They reported 16¢ pro forma earnings per share, doubling last year’s figure and also above the 14¢ estimate. Daily Active Users increased 39 million or 9.4% year-over-year to 453 million. SNAP had $182 million in free cash flow.

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

Average revenue per user hit $9.73 in the quarter in the US, suggesting plenty of room for growth in Europe, where growth was strongest, and the rest of the world. Global average revenue per user was $12.23 for the year, cracking the $1/month level for the first time.

Click for larger graphic

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Evan Spiegel said Snapchat+ grew from 7 million to 14 million subscribers in 2024, and Other Revenue, the majority of which is Snapchat+ subscription revenue, grew 131% year-over-year, exiting the year with an annualized revenue run rate of well over $500 million.

Augmented reality continues to drive engagement thanks to more than 375,000 AR creators, developers, and teams from nearly every country in the world that have built over four million Lenses using Lens Studio. In the December quarter, their new Me in the 60’s AI Lens, which enables Snapchatters to transform into a 60’s version of themselves, was viewed over 900 million times.

They finished the quarter with $3.4 billion in cash. I recommended SNAP on October 10, 2024, at $10.66 and in 2025 they should see META-like stock performance as they are recognized as an AI applications winner. SNAP is a Buy under $11 for a $17+ target.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $31.82) reports earning next Wednesday with a conference call at 2:30am – not a misprint. Analysts expect revenues to be up 2.6% from last year to $12.0 billion. March quarter guidance should be for $13 billion.

The Silicon Valley rumor mill says SoftBank is in advanced talks to acquire Oracle-backed Ampere Computing for about $6.5 billion. They might roll it into ARM. Ampere licenses ARM’s chip designs to make processors for data centers. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $11.76) undoubtedly is keeping an eye on Chinese automaker BYD’s lithium-iron-phosphate Blade batteries. It looks to me like the blade configuration may work in an EV form factor, but no way for the wearable devices and smartphones Enovix is targeting. Apparently, Apple engineers contributed to this project by sharing their expertise in advanced battery pack design and heat management systems, which probably means they decided it wouldn’t work in phones and laptops. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Fastly (FSLY – $9.99) reports earning next Wednesday. Analysts expect revenues to be up only 0.6% from last year to $138.63 million with breakeven earnings. March quarter guidance should be for $137.14 million and a 1¢ loss. Again, those are low bars to beat.

Fastly and Informa TechTarget’s Enterprise Strategy Group released a new study today revealing significant challenges for cybersecurity professionals as they combat the rapidly evolving application security landscape. The report, Balancing Requirements for Application Protection is based on insights from 383 cybersecurity and IT professionals in North America. They are dealing with escalating difficulties in securing rapidly expanding web applications and Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) against growing cyber threats.

Organizations are increasingly dependent on applications and APIs to generate revenue. On average, the surveyed experts project a 39% increase in the number of web applications and websites within the next two years, rising from an average of 145 to 201 per organization. API usage is expected to surge, with the percentage of respondents anticipating that more than half of their applications will use APIs increasing from 32% to 80% in the same two years. According to the study, 57% of mid-market and enterprise organizations have experienced web application and/or API attacks exploiting lesser-known vulnerabilities in the last 24 months.

92% of organizations have implemented at least one web application firewall (WAF), and 67% rely on multiple WAFs from different vendors. They have a critical need for consolidated, next-generation security solutions capable of covering diverse environments, from cloud to on-premises and hybrid infrastructures – like the one from Fastly.

And it will get worse – 59% of IT professionals believe that cyber adversaries have the upper hand in leveraging AI for attacks. Automated attacks require equally fast automated defenses – like the one from Fastly. FSLY is a Buy up to $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $27.68) signed a multi-launch deal with Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space for three dedicated missions to launch in 2025 and a fourth launch scheduled for 2026. Each mission will carry a single satellite to form part of iQPS’ planned constellation of 36 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites that are capable of collecting images through clouds and at night with a high resolution of less than a meter.

The company sponsored PayloadsSpace to write The Rocket Lab Report:A deep dive into Rocket Lab, the world’s second most prolific launch business. The 40-page PDF includes Rocket Lab’s economics and a market analysis with industry comps. Highly recommended. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

There was an interesting slide in this year’s Ark’s Big Ideas 2025 that included AbCellera and Editas:

Click for larger graphic h/t @GeneInvesting

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $2.16) will report $37.36 million in Auryxia sales for the December quarter, according to the consensus estimate. Then, in the March quarter, the TDAPA payments for Vafseo will roll in and the consensus thinks revenues will grow all the way to…

$37.41 million. Seriously. A $50,000 increment! The highest estimate for March quarter sales is $39.09 million.

Akebia will report in mid-March. Obviously, I think management’s guidance for March quarter revenues will be far higher, probably close to $50 million. That’s one reason I bought more stock this week. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the Vafseo launches in the EU, UK, and US.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Editas Medicine (EDIT – $1.30) is undervalued in part because Wall Street is listening to market researchers who are substantially underestimating the CRISPR gene editing market. At the end of 2023, the first CRISPR drug was approved – Casgevy from Vertex Pharmaceuticals and CRISPR Therapeutics. It will do about $5.6 billion in revenues in 2025. Just 10% of England alone, where it is fully covered, is $3.0 billion in revenues for Vertex and $1.5 billion for CRISPR Therapeutics.

Yet Grandview Research, for example, is predicting the market will only grow 4x by 2030 to $20 billion. But we’ll see product launches in 2027 from Intellia Therapeutics and in 2027-2028 from Caribou Biosciences and Beam Therapeutics – three separate, additional programs that, added to Casgevy, should generate $20 billion and there will be others, maybe CRISPR Therapeutics. We’ll see more than $20 billion in 2030 and growing from there – all paying royalties to EDIT. Editas’ patents expire in 2033. EDIT is a Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices.
Primary Risk: Other companies’ gene-sequencing drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Approved; Owned: Preclinical.
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: 2026 or never

ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.16) has a total market capitalization of $44.0 million. GSK has a deal to pay them up to $333 million in remaining milestones plus royalties over the next few years. If you were GSK with $2.4 billion in cash on your balance sheet, would you pay $150 million to $200 million to acquire ScyNexis right now? Not only do you get to save twice that in milestones and royalties for ibrexafungerp, but you also get SCY-247 and the first new antifungal franchise in 20 years – the only one that actually kills fungus – for free. Hmmm. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($2,880.10) hit an all-time high today and is heading to $3,000 gold sooner than later, according to BofA. They said all signs point to motivated buying from multiple areas of market participation. “…our model projects that trend followers in gold will pick up their pace of buying on all price paths next week.”

Click for larger graphic h/t @zerohedge Image by @tEconomics Annotations by Mish Talk

I don’t think we’ll ever really see 25% tariffs on Mexico, but they do account for about 70% of global silver production. Slap a 25% tariff on an already 200 million ounce supply deficit and the price of silver will skyrocket.

The gold fractals never fully consolidated but it looks like a new uptrend has begun anyway. The problem with this pattern is there isn’t enough stored-up energy to drive a strong or long move.

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.95) got Mexican antitrust approval for their $1.7 billion in stock takeover of SilverCrest Metals. This afternoon’s special meeting of shareholders probably approved the deal – no announcement yet. CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Dakota Gold (DC – $2.51) released the Initial Assessment on the Richmond Hill Oxide Heap Leach Gold Project today and will hold a webinar tomorrow. They knocked the ball out of the park with a Measured & Indicated 3.65 million ounces worth over $10 billion. Dakota has a market capitalization of $237 million.

The company said they now have “a pathway to near-term production.” They will release an Initial Assessment with Cash Flow in mid-2025. It will outline a potential surface heap leach operation similar to Coeur’s profitable Wharf Mine located 3.1 miles south of Richmond Hill. Wharf is expected to generate over $100 million in free cash flow in 2024 from approximately 90,000 ounces of gold. Additionally, the Report has identified a heap-leachable Inferred resource of 2.61 million ounces.

The heap-leachable resource remains open to the north and in the southeast area of Richmond Hill. Both areas are currently in the process of being permitted for 2025 drilling with the goal of expanding the resource with material amenable to heap leaching. Additionally, drilling is planned to begin converting resources to reserves and gathering additional metallurgical data.

Complimenting the heap-leachable resources, the Report also identified significant mined resources and outlines a combined heap leach and mined Measured & Indicated resource of 4.64 million ounces.

Barrick Gold extended Dakota’s option period for the Richmond Hill option and the Homestake option agreements until December 31, 2028, in return for additional annual payments of $170,000 and $340,000 respectively.

CEO Robert Quartermain said: “In less than three years since commencing drilling, we have outlined a significant near-surface heap leachable resource that we expect to advance through economic studies to Feasibility, and into commercial production as soon as 2029.”

The company will hold a webinar tomorrow at 11:00am EST. DC is a Buy under $2.50 for a $6 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Robert Quartermain doesn’t find enough gold. Secondary risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

First Majestic (AG – $5.82) said the drilling completed during the second half of 2024 significantly expanded the gold and silver mineralization at the Navidad discovery at its Santa Elena Silver/Gold Mine in Sonora, Mexico. Metallurgical testing of the mineralization revealed that gold and silver metal recoveries are excellent. An Inferred Mineral Resource estimate will be released in late March. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $96,774.01) just went through the biggest one-day liquidation in crypto history as $800 billion in market cap was lost in a few hours. Due to panic over President Trump’s tariffs, Asia was in full-blown crypto liquidation mode.

Longer-term, bitcoin is driven in part by the steadily increasing global M2 money supply, now up to $97 trillion. This gusher of global liquidity includes the total volume of currency and near-money available in the financial system – physical cash, checking and savings deposits, money market accounts, retail mutual funds, and short-term time deposits under $100,000. It’s the aggregate result of monetary policies from the world’s most influential central banks: the US, China, European Central Bank, England, Japan, Canada, Russia, and Australia.

Click for larger graphic h/t @BitcoinMagazine

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $55.12) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Ethereum (ETH-USD on Yahoo – $2,706.27) fell 37% in 60 hours after the trade war headlines mid-day on Friday. That’s nuts. On Monday it bottomed at $2,159.28 in the above-mentioned Asian panic. The August low was $2,122.55. Because ethereum is an even bigger beneficiary of President Trump’s cryptocurrency policies than bitcoin, this is an excellent opportunity to add it to your crypto allocation.

Click for larger graphic h/t @CyclesFan

ETH-USD is a Buy.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin extensions outperform Ethereum.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $20.61) is the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy.
Primary Risk:Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $70.53

Oil weakened as President Trump backed off on his tariff demands, but he also issued a directive to enforce existing sanctions on Iranian oil exports. China buys 90% of the oil that Tehran exports, so this probably is part of the wider US-China trade negotiations The Trump Administration will implement a campaign “aimed at driving Iran’s oil exports to zero,” according to a US official. Is that feasible? Nope.

The Wall Street Journal reported that while President Trump has called for a surge in oil production to help tamp down inflationary pressures, he is getting pushback from the US shale industry and Saudi Arabia. Shale oil executives are saying that even if Trump moves to wipe away many regulations on the energy sector, an American oil boom is unlikely to transpire as companies focus on reining in costs and returning cash to shareholders. People who advise Trump have also conceded that US fracking businesses will not pump more, as I’ve been telling you for months. They can’t.

So it’s up to OPEC+. But Saudi Arabia in particular has let US officials know that it is not willing to expand global oil supplies. President Trump is planning a visit to the kingdom in one of his first foreign trips since his return to the White House, so we’ll see if the Saudis cave. I expect them to publish a schedule of steady modest production increases that will give President Trump a win while keeping oil in an $80 to $100 range as demand grows.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – no trades – June closed at $66.06) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $37.79) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.02) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.07) will benefit as uranium prices rise. The UK Prime Minister announced today that they are slashing red tape to get many more nuclear power plants built in England and Wales. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

EQT (EQT – $51.43) will benefit from increased natural gas use to generate electricity for AI data centers and LNG exports. The European Union introduced binding targets at the height of the 2022 energy crisis to ensure enough gas would be available during the coldest periods. EU rules requiring storage to be 90% full by November 1 will expire at the end of this year. The European Commission has made it clear that it would like to continue the requirement.

But there are discussions among a group of countries including Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands to support a relaxation of the target after 2025 because high prices are making it unprofitable to store gas. Inventories are in the spotlight because the region is dipping into its reserves faster than expected. That’s pushing up the price in the summer when refilling should happen, making it unprofitable to store the fuel.

Of course, they are always just two cold months away from panic. Vermilion Energy will have a ready market for its European natural gas wells, but Europe (and Asia!) will need EQT’s LNG exports for years to come. EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

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Last Monday, February 3, was the 66^thanniversary of The Day the Music Died

Don McLean

Buddy Holly

Ritchie Valens

J. P. Richardson (The Big Bopper)

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Your planning an AI PC to use an AI agent Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 2/6/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Corning (GLW – $53.65) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $98.04) – Buy under $90, first target price $120
  Micron Technology (MU – $94.54) – Buy under $102, first target price $140
  Nvidia (NVDA – $128.68) – Buy under $125, first target price $180
  Onsemi (ON – $52.44) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
  Palantir (PLTR – $111.28) – Buy under $22, target price $100+
  PayPal (PYPL – $78.57) – Buy under $68, target price $136
  Snap (SNAP – $10.69) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $31.82) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $11.76) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $68.90) – Buy under $60; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $9.99) – Buy under $14; 3- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $19.03) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.81) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $27.68) – Buy under $13, target price $30+

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $3.29) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.16) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $4.63) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $1.30) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $2.00) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.87) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.16) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($32.67) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $33.36) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $39.62) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $26.47) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $36.45) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.95) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  Dakota Gold (DC – $2.51) – Buy under $2.50, target price $6
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.82) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.37) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.32) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $43.10) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $ 96,774.01) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $55.12) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,706.27)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $20.61) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – no trades – June closed at $66.06 ) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $37.79) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $9.02) – Buy under $11; $24 target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.07) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $51.43) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $37.15) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $233.22) – Expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones
  Meta (META – $711.99) – Expect to move back to Buy
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $33.50) – Hold for buyout at $40+

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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