Dear New World Investor:
Last Friday’s February payrolls report showed 151,000 new jobs, just under the 160,000 expected by economists. It was more than the 143,000 originally reported for January, which was revised down to 125,000. Although the DOGE personnel cuts are starting to bite, the unemployment rate only increased a tenth of a percent to 4.1%. The good news is that we really only need to add about 100,000 to 150,000 jobs a month to keep employment stable, and that’s exactly what happened.

Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report for February showed a little less inflationary pressures. The headline index was up 2.8% year-over-year (YoY), a tenth under the 2.9% consensus and beater than January’s 3.9%. Month-over-month (MoM) it increased 0.2%, below the 0.3% condenses and well below January’s 0.5%.
Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance
The more important (to the Fed, anyway) core index was up 3.1% YoY, below the 3.2% consensus and January’s 3.3%. Month-over-month (MoM) it increased 0.2%, below the 0.3% condenses and under January’s 0.4%.
I don’t think that’s enough to push the Fed to lower rates at next week’s meeting, but May 7 is possible if the labor market weakens and June 18 is still my best guess unless the June quarter GDPNow forecast picks up substantially.
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 lost another 3.8% since last Thursday as the tariff tantrum correction rolled on. The Index is down 6.1% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 4.2% and is down 10.4% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 1.3% in spite of two biotech conferences. It is down 4.5% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 3.5% and is down 10.6% in 2025.
Unless the S&P reverses sharply for a couple of weeks, the fractal dimension is about to signal that this is a real trend – down. Two weeks ago that looked unlikely, but now it has to be the highest probability outcome. Get your shopping list ready or even start dollar-cost averaging into stocks you want to own. Meta, Nvidia, Palantir, PayPal, Enovix, Rocket Lab, Akebia, Compass, ScyNexis, Vermilion, EQT, Energy Fuels, and Freeport McMoRan come to mind.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
SCYX – ScyNexis – Announce resolution of the manufacturing problem, lifting of clinical hold, restart of MARIO trial, maybe GSK files for hospital use approval
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Monday, March 17
NVDA – Nvidia – Through 3/20 – GTC Conference
QUIK – QuickLogic – Through 3/20 – GOMAC Government Microelectronics Conference
Tuesday, March 18
GLW – Corning – 8:45am – Investor Event
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 11:30am – Stifel Virtual CNS Forum
RKLB – Rocket Lab – 11:40am – BofA Global Industrials Conference
NVDA – Nvidia – 1:00pm – CEO Jensen Huang keynote at GTC Conference
INO – Inovio – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
Wednesday, March 19
NVDA – Nvidia – 11:30am – GTC Financial Analyst Q&A
ABCL – AbCellera – 1:30pm – KeyBanc Capital Markets Healthcare Forum
Fed Meeting – 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference
Thursday, March 20
Spring Equinox – 5:01am
NVDA – Nvidia – GTC Quantum Computing Day
MU – Micron – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
MU – Micron – 6:00pm – Post-earnings analyst call (it looks like you are welcome to listen)
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $209.68) introduced a new Immersive Video concert experience,
Metallica, for the Vision Pro. It was filmed in Mexico City during the sold-out second-year finale of the band’s M72 World Tour. The Apple Vision Pro combines ultra-high-resolution 1800 video and Spatial Audio to give viewers unprecedented vantage points as close up as the famed Snake Pit to wide-angle views of the performance.
Bloomberg said the upcoming iOS 19 operating system upgrade will be a “dramatic” overhaul of the look and feel of an iPhone. The revamp, due later this year, will include updates to icons, menus, apps, windows, and system buttons, and will be showcased at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in June. AAPL is a HOLD – I expect to move it back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones.
Corning (GLW – $45.60) holds an Investor Event next Tuesday. They have a strong story to tell – $3 billion in incremental revenues over the next three years with no increase in incremental expenses. That’s a lot of earnings and free cash flow.
The company will partner with US solar manufacturers Suniva and Heliene on the first “Made in America” solar panels with all American-made components. Corning will supply the silicon wafers from its Hemlock subsidiary. GLW is a Buy under $33 for a $60 target in 2025.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $113.35) presented at the Leerink Partners Global Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). EVP and Global Head of the Kite subsidiary Cindy Perettie said they partnered with Arcellix to develop anito-cel for patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. Multiple myeloma is an incurable disease for most patients and the drug has a remarkable 62% Complete Response Rate (CRR) and 97% Overall Response Rate (ORR) in 150 patients with an excellent short- and long-term safety profile. There’s been no neurotoxicity. It will launch in 2026, first in the US. Only 1 in 10 multiple myeloma patients gets treated today.
Kite manufactures in 28 countries today for fast turnaround of patients’ cells – 14 days in the US and 17 days in the rest of the world – with 538 treatment centers around the world. Patients want their treatment center to be close to home. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $90 for a first target of $120.
Meta Platforms (META – $590.64) is, according to Reuters, testing its first custom dedicated accelerator processor to reduce their reliance on Nvidia to train artificial intelligence systems. The processor is designed to handle only AI-specific tasks, which in theory can make it more power-efficient than Nvidia’s integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) generally used for AI workloads. Taiwan Semiconductor will make the chip, with first tape-out coming next. In my experience, first tape-outs rarely work and are just the beginning of a debugging process that costs tens of millions of dollars and takes three to six months for each iteration. In other words, not a real threat to Nvidia yet.
Last year, Meta started using a custom chip to perform inference – running an AI system as users interact with it – for the recommendation systems that determine which content shows up on Facebook and Instagram news feeds. Meta has said they want to start using their own chips by 2026 for training, which is the compute-intensive process of feeding the AI system reams of data to teach it how to perform. As with the inference chip, the goal for the training chip is to start with recommendation systems and later use it for generative AI products like chatbot Meta AI. Chief Product Officer Chris Cox described Meta’s chip development efforts as “kind of a walk, crawl, run situation” so far. META is a Buy under $655 for a long-term hold.
Micron (MU – $94.88) reports February quarter earnings next Thursday after the close. Analysts expect $7.92 billion in revenues with earnings of $1.44 per share. March quarter guidance should be for $8.21 billion and $1.57. MU is a Buy under $102 for a $140 first target.
Nvidia (NVDA – $115.58) holds their big GTC Conference next week with a keynote by CEO Jensen Huang on Tuesday at 1:00pm. I expect them to reveal the next processors in their graphics processing unit (GPU) roadmap. That should pop the stock.
BofA just said that in spite of the Deepseek large language model, US hyperscalers are going to increase AI capital spending by 34% in 2025 to $275 billion. A big chunk of that will go to Nvidia. NVDA is a Buy under $125 for a $180 first target.
Onsemi (ON – $42.15) introduced an advanced depth sensor for industrial applications. The Hyperlux ID iToF family increases the distance of depth measurements up to 30 meters to improve productivity and safety in industrial environments. This is the industry’s first real-time, indirect time-of-flight (iToF) sensor that offers high precision long distance measurements and 3D imaging of fast-moving objects. By using Onsemi’s new proprietary, patented global shutter pixel architecture and on-board storage, the Hyperlux ID family can capture an entire scene and simultaneously process depth measurement in real-time. ON is a Buy under $60 for a $100 first target.
Palantir (PLTR – $79.62) is being added to the S&P 100, replacing Ford. There are S&P 100 index funds that will have to buy the stock.
The newest AIP Con was held today. New customer announcements included Heineken, Walgreens, R1 RCM, RaceTrac, Ripcord, and more. The next wave of Warp Speed customers showed how they are re-industrializing American manufacturing, including Red Cat, Saildrone, Saronic, SNC, and Ursa Major. Other customer speakers included AT&T, Anduril, TWG Global, Lennar, KKR, Owens Corning, Delta Air Lines, L3Harris, Parexel, Wendy’s QSCC, JD Power, and many others.
PLTR is a Buy under $100 for a $150 target.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $66.91) presented at the Wolfe Fintech Forum (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CFO & COO Jamie Miller said 2024 was about reorienting and rebuilding the company for growth. They now have a very clear idea about what they need to do and exactly how to do it. 2025 is all about execution.
Their network advantage is huge because they have so many businesses and so many customers. The opportunity is to capture much more of the transaction volume between those two by giving the businesses access to customer data so they can provide better shopping suggestions, coupons, rewards, and even personalized web pages. Customers get target promotions on items they are likely to want to buy and businesses get higher sales and repeat sales. By providing a smooth, bullet-proof branded checkout, PayPal gets higher transaction margin dollars, revenues, and earnings per share.
So the first of their three pillars of growth is winning branded checkout by improving merchant conversion from website visitor to a sale.
The second of their pillars is Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL). I’ve tested this and it works very smoothly. Although PayPal is one of the largest BNPL companies, it has historically been run as a separate business. They are now integrating it as a core part of checkout.
The third pillar is Pay With Venmo. Historically, Venmo was used to transfer money among friends who then transferred it to their bank. PayPal wants them to leave a balance in their account and use it like a debit card to make purchases. This has been great for merchants who are mobile first.
They’ve gotten transaction margin dollars growing again, now at a mid-single digit annual rate. They intend to get that to high single digits by 2027 and to 10%+ long-term as they take the US innovations to the rest of the world. In 2024 they cut expenses and in 2025 they expect emphasizing efficiencies in their major pillars will continue to trim expenses. PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.
Small Tech
PagerDuty (PD – $15.61) reported January fourth quarter results after the close today. Revenues rose 9.3% from last year to $121.4 million, above the $119.53 million consensus estimate. Pro forma earnings per share of 22¢ also beat the 16¢ consensus. Annual recurring revenue hit a $494 million run rate and dollar-based net retention was 106% in the quarter. They had 31,000 free and paid customers, up 10% from last year, including 849 customers paying over $100,000 a year, up 6% from last year.
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Jennifer Tejada announced a $150 million stock buyback program. She guided April first quarter revenues to $118 million to $120 million, 6% to 8% growth, with earnings of 18¢ to 19¢. The Street was at $121 million and 19¢. For the year, they guided for $500 million to $507 million, up 7% to 8%, with earnings of 90¢ to 95¢. The Street was at $510 million and 89¢.
Jen said: “Our customers continue to prioritize digital operations as mission-critical to their business, and PagerDuty is their trusted partner in driving operational efficiency at scale. This quarter’s AI innovation, combined with new features added to all PagerDuty Incident Management packages, positions PagerDuty well to accelerate enterprise momentum in the second half.”
They have a huge market opportunity:
They finished the quarter with $570.8 million in cash. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.
Redwire (RDW – $9.38) reported December quarter revenues up 9.6% from last year to $69.56 million, below the $74.55 million consensus estimate, bringing them in at a record $304.1 million for the year. That’s 24.7% growth from 2023. They lost $67.2 million or $1.38 a share for the quarter and $2.35 for the year. The fourth-quarter loss included a $43.8 million non-cash loss as a result of an increase in the fair value of their private warrant liability.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Peter Cannito said they accomplished their 2024 growth strategies:
In 2024, they won $229.8 million in contracts and at the end of the year had a $7.1 billion pipeline of identified opportunities, including $4.1 billion of bids submitted in 2024, up sharply from $0.9 billion in 2023. The Edge Autonomy acquisition will close in the June quarter and transform the company into a global leader in multi-domain autonomous technology.
On Wednesday, CFO Jonathan Baliff presented at the Cantor Global Technology Conference (AUDIO HERE). He said that assuming the Edge Autonomy acquisition closed on January 1, they expect $535 million to $605 million in 2025 revenues with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $70 million to $105 million with positive free cash flow.
They finished the quarter with $33.7 million in cash and $16.0 million in an available credit line. Through March 7, the warrant conversion I mentioned last week has yielded another $65.5 million in cash. RDW is a Buy under $18 for a $36 first target as space exploration grows.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $17.57) will acquire Mynaric AG, which is restructuring under German bankruptcy law, for $75 million, a fraction of the over $300 million invested in Mynaric to date. Mynaric is a leading provider of laser optical communications terminals for air, space, and mobile applications.
Rocket Lab will establish its first European facility in Munich, with a team of 300+ engineers and staff. They think the acquisition opens up incremental European growth opportunities across their products and services. In addition to the production assets, Rocket Lab gets intellectual property, product inventory, and committed backlog related to satellite-to-satellite optical connectivity solutions for next generation constellations. Most important, I suspect, is that this further vertically integrates the manufacture and management of Rocket Lab’s own future high-value satellite application ambitions.
Mynaric is already a subcontractor to Rocket Lab, providing CONDOR Mk3 optical communication terminals for Rocket Lab’s $515 million prime contract with the Space Development Agency (SDA) to produce 18 satellites for the Tranche 2 Transport Layer-Beta. Mynaric is also a supplier into other SDA contracts, and Mynaric and Rocket Lab share many customers spanning commercial constellation operators, prime contractors, and defense and civil government agencies. Rocket Lab will scale production and introduce efficiencies to Mynaric’s existing manufacturing capability to further support SDA and other opportunities, providing these customers with improved confidence and assurance their terminals will be delivered on schedule and on budget.
Laser communication has become a pain point for constellation operators, with products not readily available in high volumes at an affordable price. Rocket Lab knows how to take satellite subsystems and components previously only available in subscale quantities with long lead times and make them affordable and available at scale.
Airbus Constellation Satellites contracted with RKLB to provide 200 high efficiency, space grade solar panels for 100 OneWeb Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites for Eutelsat Group, with delivery targeted for 2026. Like Starlink, OneWeb satellites are designed to provide high-speed, low-latency global internet access to remote and underserved areas. In 2021, Rocket Lab provided more than 450 solar array panels to Airbus for their first fleet of OneWeb satellites.
Rocket Lab will launch its next Electron rocket after March 15 for iQPS, followed three days later by its latest launch for Kinéis, the global Internet-of-Things (IoT) connectivity provider. The Kinéis mission is the last of five dedicated Electron launches that will deploy an entire constellation of 25 IoT satellites in less than a year. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Biotech MegaShift
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.69) reported December quarter revenues down 17.3% from last year to $46.49 million as Auryxia sales continued to slide, but they beat the $37.36 million Wall Street estimate. They lost 10¢ a share, 2¢ worse than the -8¢ Street estimate.
Of course, the important topic was the Vafseo launch. They said they’ve seen strong results to date and expect March quarter net product revenues from Vafseo of $10 million to $11 million. Through the end of February, more than 500 prescribers have written a prescription for Vafseo and each prescriber has written approximately eight prescriptions on average, in a range from one to 64. As of today, three of the top four dialysis organizations have placed orders.
The most recent very successful launch of a diabetes drug was Ardelyx’s Xphozah, a phosphate absorption inhibitor, approved in October 2023. In the first seven weeks of their launch they had half the number of prescribers as Vafseo.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO John Butler said the $10 million to $11 million March quarter estimate is above Wall Street expectations.
As expected, early adoption is coming from the small to medium dialysis organizations in the first half of the year. Demand is increasing steadily. Akebia has focused on Medicare fee-for-service patients because they are 40% of dialysis patients and have immediate access to TDAPA drugs. Medicare Advantage, which accounts for another 40% of patients, will follow as the dialysis providers (not Akebia) contract with them. Even so, 15% of prescriptions already are Medicare Advantage.
They will meet with the FDA soon to finalize the design of the Phase 3 clinical trial of Vafseo for treating anemia in late-stage CKD patients who are not on dialysis. The trial will begin in the second half of 2025. As I wrote on the Comments board, non-dialysis is a $3 billion market.
Vafseo was recommended for symptomatic anemia in adults undergoing dialysis for CKD by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, and Akebia’s partner Medice has now launched Vafseo in the UK. Akebia gets royalties on sales.
Akebia ended the year with $15.9 million in cash and has raised $18.4 million so far this year from their At-The-Market facility. In addition, they took down a $9.3 million tranche from their BlackRock credit line, in total giving them enough cash for at least two years.
Wall Street dropped the stock 21.2% intraday today. The sellers probably were retail and short-term traders, and the buyers probably were market makers and proprietary traders. I expect it to bounce back quickly. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the Vafseo launches in the EU, UK, and US.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next approval: 2026
Probable time of next financing: Never
Editas Medicine (EDIT – $1.37) presented at both the Leerink Partners Global Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE) and the Barclays Global Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). Because they didn’t do a conference call when they reported December quarter earnings last week, I was all ears.
CEO Gilmore O’Neill said the company is targeting diseases where editing the genome makes a huge difference versus conventional drugs. That means areas where there are high levels of tissue turnover, so permanently changing the genome has a durable effect. Right now they are targeting non-coding DNA that lets them dial up production of a protein that will mitigate a disease. They developed a proprietary patented delivery liposomal enzyme that gives them superior results in vivo.
CFO Erick Lucera said they will announce two drug candidates this summer and share data about editing efficiency and their path to filing Investigational New Drug (IND) applications in the middle of 2026. The in vivo preclinical proof-of-concept will be in both hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) and liver cells in large animal models. They’ll disclose one additional target cell type or tissue in addition to HSCs and liver by the end of 2025. He said they also expect to issue more intellectual property sub-licenses by yearend.
Their 2025-2027 strategic priorities are:
Erick repeated that they ended December with about $270 million in cash, enough to carry them into the June quarter of 2027 even without more sub-licenses. EDIT is a Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices.
Primary Risk: Other companies’ gene-sequencing drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered approved. Owned: Going into the clinic mid-2025.
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2028
Probable time of next financing: Late 2026 or never
ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.85) reported 2024 results with no conference call. They said the Phase 1 trial of the second-generation antifungal SCY-247 that began in December of 2024 continues with results expected in the September quarter. The company “continues to make progress towards the restart of the Phase 3 MARIO study in invasive candidiasis. The Company anticipates the restart, pending the FDA’s lifting of the clinical hold, in the second quarter of 2025.” So, soon.
They ended the year with $75.1 million in cash, now expected to carry them into the September 2026 quarter.Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: Never
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($2,984.30) may average $3,150 and hit $3,500 in the September quarter, according to Macquarie Group. The fractal dimension is racing towards the end of the trend at 30, when gold will be solidly above $3,000.
Miners & Related
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.44) provided more developments and exploration highlights from its diversified stream and royalty portfolio HERE. They expect first gold from the Bayan Khundii gold project in Mongolia, where they have a 1.0% net smelter returns royalty, in mid-2025. Several projects are showing high-grade drilling results. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Sprott Inc. (SII – $41.75) renewed its stock buyback program for up to 645,333 share, or 2.5% of the outstanding common. Buy SII under $40 for a $70 target price.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $80,537.53) seems to have a floor at these levels.
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $45.52) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $13.98) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk:Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $66.76
The ever-unreliable International Energy Agency says there is a one million barrel a day surplus in the March quarter as shown by the 2.33 million barrels a day of “unaccounted for balance.”

OK – where is it? It doesn’t seem to be on land or on the water.

Is Elon Musk hiding it in outer space? Time to ‘fess up, EIA! At which point, the paper oil short sellers rush to cover will be the best entertainment in town. OPEC posted: “Another moment of truth for the IEA: Words matter on oil industry investments.”

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $no trades) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $35.82) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.46) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil prices fall.
EQT (EQT – $48.86) priced their tender offer to buy back their 3.9% notes with a $1000 face value for $987.82 each. EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.
* * * * *
RIP Gene Hackman
nobody should go like that
* * * * *
Your understanding how AI helps with complex information Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 3/13/25. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $45.60) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $113.35) – Buy under $90, first target price $120
Meta (META – $590.64) – Buy under $655 for a long-term hold
Micron Technology (MU – $94.88) – Buy under $102, first target price $140
Nvidia (NVDA – $115.58) – Buy under $125, first target price $180
Onsemi (ON – $42.15) – Buy under $60, first target price $100
Palantir (PLTR – $79.62) – Buy under $100, target price $150
PayPal (PYPL – $66.91) – Buy under $68, target price $136
Snap (SNAP – $8.37) – Buy under $11, target price $17+
SoftBank (SFTBY – $26.02) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $7.31) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $62.72) – Buy under $60; 3- to 5-year hold
PagerDuty (PD – $15.61) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.66) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Redwire (RDW – $9.38 – Buy under $18, first target price $36
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $17.57) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
$20-for-$1 Biotech
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $2.40) – Buy under $6, target $30+
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.69) – Buy under $2, target $20
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $3.49) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Editas Medicines (EDIT – $1.37 – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
Inovio (INO – $1.93) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.77) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $0.85) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($34.49) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $35.45) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $41.04) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $27.68) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $39.22) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $5.94) – Buy under $5, target price $20
Dakota Gold (DC – $2.99) – Buy under $2.50, target price $6
First Majestic Mining (AG – $6.68) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.36) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.44) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $41.75) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $80,537.53) – Buy
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $45.52) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,861.74)– Buy
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $16.98) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $no trades) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $35.82) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
Vermilion Energy (VET – $7.46) – Buy under $11; $24 target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $4.18) – Buy under $8; $30 target
EQT (EQT – $48.86) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $37.58) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Apple Computer (AAPL – $209.68) – Expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones
Fastly (FSLY – $6.60) – Hold for March quarter results
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $37.06) – Hold for buyout at $40+
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First
What the hell does gold fractals “racing toward the end of the trend at 30” mean? Is one to assume the rally is about to peak? Then what?
You need to be less ambiguous on this stuff IMO.
The trend is about to end and the consolidation is about to begin. Consolidations can happen by the passage of time with gold staying near the peak or by price, which means a drop back that often is sharp and scary. Either way, bulls get discouraged, bears get encouraged, and sentiment shifts far enough to create the conditions for a contrarian trend back up.
MM – very disappointing reaction to earnings for AKBA, what is your new updated projections and timing for this stock?
AKBA- Up 21% on huge volume so far rejecting yesterday breakdown. Indeed, the stock did not react well immediately after earnings although it managed to successfully test the 200MA and CLOSE above it. The volume was gigantic which could be interpreted negatively but given the close and todays’ opening it was actually very positive: all the potential sellers and weak holders are probably gone and the stock is free to go up in a vacuum. Let’s wait for the close and see what kind of volume it will have today.
It’s a long answer. A reasonable path to $10-$11 million in sales in the March quarter is $1.7 million in January, increasing $1.7 million every month. That would get you to $10.2 million in the March quarter (to be announced in May) and $25.5 million in the June quarter. The cadence probably will pick up then as the big dialysis providers really ramp up. If it didn’t pick up from the $1.7 million monthly rate, September quarter Vafseo sales would be $40.8 million and December $56.1 million, but I think those numbers are way too low. That’s what Wall Street is looking at today.
Amgen also is looking, of course. I think they’ll make a bid this year.
AKBA- MM, “AMGN is also looking, of course. I think they’ll make a bid this year”. Very possible. What do you think they would offer for AKBA??
~$10, but that would be the floor for other bids.
MM, what are your thoughts on this?
https://ir.inovio.com/news-releases/news-releases-details/2025/INOVIO-Announces-Promising-Interim-Results-from-Ongoing-Proof-of-Concept-Clinical-Trial-of-DNA-Encoded-Monoclonal-Antibodies-DMAbs-for-COVID-19/default.aspx
MM, Do you know why they would PR this? What good is this now? Tomorrow is their earnings report. I’m hoping there isn’t another delay with the device.
thanks MM
in 2013 ONYX got bought buy Amgen i put half $ in pcyc and half in tgtx when pcyc got bought i put half of that in tgtx and im going to hold in till tgtx gets bought or grows into a major pharm.
i would rather be lucky than good.
Meta shareholders might wish to be aware of this.
https://www.thefp.com/p/meta-facebook-sarah-wynn-williams-mark-zuckerberg-china
MM, on SYCX. At this point, hasn’t GSK breached their contract?
MM – whats driving SCYX price now and keep it or trade it for more AKBA?
I am sick of the promises from SCYX that the FDA will lift the clinical hold soon. LIES. The “earnings” sucked. Continued losses because Brexa is not on the market. What is management doing with no cash from no sales? The only ray of hope is that the stock moved up with all the bad news. That usually means a reversal of the decline in stock price. AKBA is a blue chip sure thing vs SCYX. AKBA has Vafseo which is already selling better than analysts expected and is warming up for blockbuster status. SCYX is in prison hoping for a reprieve. AKBA is due for a correction after the big quick move from $1.52 to $2.40 in two sessions of trading. Q1 ER in mid May won’t say anything new. Q2 ER in mid Aug hopefully will show explosive growth. I’d say you have until July to get more AKBA under $2. Put in a bid at $1.80 or so and wait to get lucky. Hold for approval of V use for NDD anemia. Pipeline for ARDS, AKI may get the stock to $30-100 in 5 years. HOLD, HOLD. Follow knowledgeable people on Stocktwits. Holy_boy is a nephrologist who has 30 patients on V with good results so far. Hsainu is a doc with extensive bio stock experience whose PT is $30 in a year. Adolzisa (long name but that’s enough to get his posts) is an anesthesiologist with a pain management practice who has valuable insights. He projects near breakeven by summer. Pacomartinez is smart.
On Stocktwits, Yamauchii from Italy is always posting interesting tidbits. Today is a meeting of Minnesota Medicaid where Vafseo is on the list for discussion. AKBA is on the move. Unfortunately for buyers, the stock is zooming, now $2.69. Explosive news will wait for Q2 ER in Aug, although Butler may give guidance as early as July. Long term, buying below $5 will be OK, but the current euphoria may moderate, creating better buys below $2 or even $3.
The FDA will lift the clinical hold soon. GSK will pay SCYX milestones. I expect them to reintroduce Brexafemme and move quickly on the hospital indications after the MARIO trial ends.
WTF!! AKBA just diluted with a share offering, I thought they had plenty cash on hand??
are you kidding me – now a secondary when stock finally has a bid – its beena long wait for this one but i am done!
i need this to happen while im alive!!
as with other MM picks -I cant wait 15 years -dont think he can either!!
MM???
They did have plenty of cash. This probably was driven by a big institution trying to establish a position. More in today’s issue.
AKBA- If Butler did NOT need to do this to expand into new markets and other capital needs he IS a total ahole.
I understand the stock is the highest it has been in a year but waiting for $4 or $5 would have been a lot less dilutive. What a jerk. A real Desperado.
I totally agree. What an ass. MM when will you learn your lesson and stay away from these pie in the sky developmental pharma stocks. My greatest loses in my investing lifetime have been your picks. Here we go again. The stock will crater further tomorrow during the open market. The biggest ass of all was Norchi. He should be in jail. Con man. Now add AKBA to the list.
Padding the CEO’s pocket with this sham deal. This is the LAST recommendation I will ever act on from the New World Investor.
Shame!
New World Investor for 3.20.25 is posted.