Dear New World Investor:
A major PC crash slowed and shortened this issue. No fractal, GDPNow, or bitcoin graphics. My apologies for that – the little laptop did its best and we’ll be good to go next week.
Yesterday’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May showed a month-over-month increase of just 0.2%, a tick below the 0.3% expected as well as April’s 0.3%. The Fed now expects only one quarter-point (25 basis points) reduction in the Fed funds rate this year. They now expect four cuts in 2025 instead of three, so not much really changed. As always, Chairman Powell said what they do will be “data-dependent,” which means they don’t know what’s going to happen so they will react instead of managing.
The lagging Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) component of the CPI continues to muddy the waters, even though the Bureau of Labor Statistics is belatedly trying to come up with a more relevant measure. They won’t use the Zillow number that clearly shows OER will be dampening the reported CPI for months to come.
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BofA’s excellent summary:
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Last Friday’s surprisingly strong May payrolls report of 272,000 new jobs was well above the 182,000 expected. It also was above April’s 165,000 (revised down from 175,000), but down from 310,000 in March. While the Establishment Survey showed a gain of 272,000 jobs, the more accurate Household Survey did not confirm the strength with a loss of 408,000 jobs. The Household survey continues to paint a much softer employment picture than the establishment survey,
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it was widely viewed as a great report, but it was the worst great jobs report I have ever seen. Even taking the Establishment Survey at face value, full time jobs fell 625,000 while part time jobs increased 286,000. Native born jobs fell 663,000 while foreigners (mostly illegal aliens) increased 414,000.
In other macroeconomic news, consumer credit is slowing. April showed a $6.4 billion increase in credit card debt, well below consensus expectations for a $10.0 billion increase. March was revised massively lower from +$6.3 billion to -$1.1 billion, the first decline in credit card debt in three years.
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 added 1.5% since last Thursday to a new intraday high yesterday and an all-time closing high today. The Index is up 13.9% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.9% to both intraday and closing all-time highs today. It is up 17.7% for the year.
The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 0.5% s investors continued to avoid small cap stocks and is only up 0.6% in 2024. This is the third longest consecutive day count without a new all-time high… during its fourth biggest draw-down dating back to 2000.
Click for larger graphic h/t @WinfieldSmart
A question I often get is: “Is it safe to invest at all time highs?”
Click for larger graphic H/T @WinfieldSmart
For more than half of the S&P500, the stock buyback window closes tomorrow until after they have reported June quarter earnings. Buybacks support stock prices, so expect a little weakness into mid-July. Then they will resume big time as corporations are aggressively buying back this year,
Click for larger graphic
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
SCYX – ScyNexis – Data releases and resolution of the manufacturing problem
TGTX TG Therapeutics – Rapid recovery from overdone pullback
AAPL Apple – AI announcements at June WWDC and September iPhone 16 introduction
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for June quarter real GDP growth increased from +2.6% to +3.1% due to strength in personal consumption expenditures growth and private domestic investment growth.
After being flat for 15 years, labor productivity is rising:
Click for larger graphic h/t @WinfieldSmart
There was a $6.3 trillion increase in Federal debt in the March quarter, more than double the prior quarterly record in 2008.
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, June 14
EDIT – Editas – 10:00am – Poster presentation at EHA
Saturday, June 15
EDIT – Editas – 5:30am – Oral presentation at EHA
Sunday, June 16
Fathers Day – Lyrics to Your Father’s Son
When you’re tired and lonely
remember someone
you’ll always remain
your father’s son.
Though you stray from the path
You don’t like what you’ve done
When sorrow is deep
And despair is your raft
When you’re busted and broken
Remember someone
You’ll always remain
your father’s son.
How many oceans
Are under the plain?
Above the poor farmer
is praying for rain.
Be ye braggart or humble
Be ye doctor or thief
If you’re made out of money
If you live on relief
When you’re down and forsaken
Remember someone
You’ll always remain
your father’s son
How many rivers
flow under the ground?
They water the caverns.
They don’t make a sound.
When you lay down to rest
remember someone.
You’ll always remain
your father’s son.
Tuesday, June 18
APTO – Aptose – 8:00am – Annual meeting
Wednesday, June 19
Markets Closed Juneteenth
SCYX – ScyNexis – 9:30am – Annual meeting
Thursday, June 20
Summer Solstice – 4:51pm
SFTBY – SoftBank – 9:00pm – Annual meeting
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $214.24) held their WorldWide Developers Conference and revealed the Artificial Intelligence (“Apple” Intelligence) features to come. You can watch the whole one hour and 43 minute keynote presentation:
Or just the Apple Intelligence five minute summary:
They exceeded my expectations by NOT following the path everyone else is taking. Instead of using a Large Language Model (LLM) running in the (expensive) cloud, their AI will run mostly on devices as small as an iPhone. For better privacy, personal interactions and data will not be sent to the big tech companies. If a user really needs the power of a full-blown LLM, they can choose to use Apple’s new partner, Chat-GPT4o from Open AI. But unlike companies that are building AI for a broad range of products, Apple is instead focused only on the devices it sells and the personal data that AI could use.
Management said: “We think that the right approach to this is to have a series of different models and different sizes for different use cases.” Apple created a 3-billion parameter model as part of Apple Intelligence. ChatGPT’s GPT-3 model from 2020, in comparison, is much larger, at 175 billion parameters. The more parameters, the more memory and computing power needed to run the model.
Until Monday’s event, the stock had been locked in a w-i-d-e range:
Click for larger graphic h/t The Market Ear
You can see why I wanted you to buy Apple before the WWDC. The stock exploded up and its $215 Billion market cap increase Tuesday was the third largest single day market cap increase in stock market history, behind only two Nvidia days. By today, AAPL passed both Nvidia and Microsoft to become the largest company in the US.
Click for larger graphic h/t @StockMKTNewz
AAPL is a Buy under $175 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Corning (GLW – $38.08) hosted investors and analysts at its Sullivan Park Research Facility for business updates and technical demonstrations. In their Key Takeaways summary, they said:
* * We believe Q1 2024 is the lowest quarter of the year
* * We expect to grow by more than $3B in annualized sales in the next three years – and expect growth beyond the three-year timeframe, driven by cyclical factors and secular trends combining
Optical Communications: Carrier customers resume buying at current deployment rates in 2024; Generative AI opportunity drives significant sales growth starting in 2024; BEAD-related projects for network builds begin in 2025
Display: TV screen size growth >1” per year; implement currency-based price adjustments to ensure we continue to deliver appropriate returns
Automotive: U.S. EPA standards require adoption of GPF filters, sales begin in 2026; secular trends drive growth in automotive glass, with sales expected to almost triple between 2023 and 2026
New Platform: Leverage the recently passed IRA to support build out of U.S solar supply chain
* * As we capture growth, we expect to deliver powerful incremental profit and cash flow since the required production capacity and technical capabilities are already in place
* * Restored productivity ratios to best-demonstrated levels and raised price to more appropriately share inflation with customers
* * Q2 2024 guidance reflects strong incrementals with sales expected to be up ~5% and EPS expected to be up ~16% sequentially
* * Incremental profit and cash flow support dividends and opportunistic share buybacks o Began buying back shares in Q2 2024
If you are looking for a GREAT retirement stock with a 3% dividend, a god balance sheet, shareholder-friendly management, and strong growth ahead GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular build out, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2025 .
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $63.56) presented at the Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Dan O’Day said: “…we are definitely making continued progress on our transformation journey that we started about five years ago. It’s an arc of many years, and even as we navigate some of the recent Trodelvy Phase 3 readouts that I know we’ll speak about in lung cancer and bladder cancer, we are making steady progress relative to sustainable and diversify our business over time. I mean, I would just point to the most recent quarterly call where our commercial front is very strong and our Virology business continues to be our cornerstone.
Our clinical portfolio is larger than ever, better equipped than ever to withstand different types of readouts in the portfolio. And importantly, I think this is important — we have no major patent expiries until Biktarvy LOE in 2033…our diverse pipeline now has 54 clinical programs, 16 of those are in Phase 3.”
GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $80 for a first target of $120.
Palantir (PLTR – $23.27) held their fourth AIP Con:
If you don’t want to watch the whole two hours, here’s a six-minute excerpt from NorthWind, a control system integrator, that developed a customer-facing product using Foundry to address labor shortages and high turnover challenges faced by their customers in maintaining manufacturing processes.
PLTR is a Buy under $22 for a $100+ target.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $61.54) CFO Jamie Miller presented at the RBC Financial Technology Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), giving us the first chance to hear someone on the new turnaround team besides the CEO. He gave a very solid presentation, When asked why he joined PayPal, he said: “when I started looking at PayPal, what really struck me was, number one, just really formidable market position. I mean, trusted, scaled global brand across not only checkout, but you get into Venmo, you get into peer-to-peer payments, that whole space. Really impressive. And a lot of self-help opportunity in the story.
“The last couple of years, some level of underinvestment and just opportunity when you really looked at the total picture. And when you look at it, Alex Chriss is really awesome,…for those of you who haven’t met Alex, just a true product thinker and really an amazing leader and has built a great, great team. And when you look at the valuation of the company, just an opportunity to have an impact and really feel like an owner.
“And I have to tell you, coming in, and now seven months later, I would underscore all of that. The brand and market position are really impressive. And there’s a lot here to work with. And then we’ll talk about, I’m sure today, a lot of the opportunity and where we’re investing and how we’re really trying to move the needle. And then you look at the team and the culture, PayPal has an awesome culture. People want to win.”
PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.
Small Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $7.27) launched Fastly AI Accelerator, their first AI solution designed to help developers improve performance and reduce costs across the use of similar prompts for large language models (LLM) apps. Stephen O’Grady, Principal Analyst with RedMonk said: “AI technologies generally and large language models specifically are aggressively reshaping the technology industry, and the way millions worldwide – developers included – work every day. There’s a lot of focus on the largest models. However, developers and enterprises alike are turning in large numbers to medium and smaller models. Whether it’s to lower costs, to shorten training cycles, or to run on more limited hardware profiles, they’re an increasingly important option.”
Fastly AI Accelerator uses intelligent, semantic caching to dramatically improve performance for apps using popular LLMs, beginning with ChatGPT and expanding support to include additional models.
Popular AI applications can process hundreds of thousands of API calls or questions daily. Many of the questions users ask are likely very similar and may have been asked before. Without semantic caching, each call to the LLM requires going back to the provider for the information, potentially increasing costs and latency. However, Fastly AI Accelerator’s semantic caching provides a cached response for repeated queries directly from Fastly’s high performance edge platform, instead of going back to the AI provider, helping to deliver a better experience by improving performance while reducing costs.
Developers only need to update their app to use a new API endpoint, which typically only requires changing a single line of code. FSLY is a Buy up to $14 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.55) signed a non-binding preliminary memorandum of terms to get up to $23.9 million in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act. The grant would enable Rocket Lab to expand in Albuquerque, New Mexico, increasing manufacturing capacity of space-grade solar cells by 50% within the next three years. These are important components for national defense and security satellites.
Rocket Lab is one of only two companies domestically, and three companies outside of Russia and China, that specializes in the production of highly efficient and radiation resistant compound semiconductors called space-grade solar cells. Their cells power critical space programs such as missile awareness systems and exploratory science missions, including the James Webb Space Telescope, NASA’s Artemis lunar explorations, Ingenuity Mars Helicopter, and the Mars Insight Lander.
In addition to these proposed federal incentives, the State of New Mexico has also committed to providing financial assistance and incentives with a total value of $25.5 million to Rocket Lab in support of this effort.
The 50th Electron mission is the first of five dedicated launches to deploy a 25-satellite constellation for French Internet-of-Things company Kinéis. The launch window opens June 19. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Velo3D (VLD – $3.91) held their annual meeting (12-minute AUDIO HERE). The vote to approve a reverse stock split passed and a 1-for-35 split was effective this morning. The 297,064,857 outstanding shares were reduced to approximately 8,487,567 shares. I expect the usual dip after a reverse split followed by a steady rise based on quarterly results. VLD is a Buy up to $10 for a $100 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $3.33) CEO Carl Hansen presented at the Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference (MEDIOCRE AUDIO HERE). After a brief review of their strategy and history, he said their Covid-19 antibody partnership with Lilly brought in about $1 billion in royalties in 2020-2021, which gave them the capital to complete their 12-year process of building a compete antibody platform from discovery to GMP manufacturing.
Click for larger graphic
They discover and develop antibodies for partners who then do the preclinical work and Investigational New Drug (IND)-enabling studies to take them into human clinical trials. AbCellera expects only 67% to 75% to get to the clinic, which is enough to create a substantial royalty flow in the future.
Click for larger graphic
Their two internal programs will be in human trials early next year. ABCL575 can be best in class for atopic dermatitis and potentially has broad application to other autoimmune diseases. They probably will move it through Phase 2 and then look for a partner for Phase 3.
Click for larger graphic
ABCL635 is for metabolic and endocrine conditions targeting first in class an undisclosed indication that is a $2+ billion market. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Preclinical
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
Probable time of next financing: 2026-2027 or never
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $16.76) presented at the Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference (AUDIO HERE). CEO Mike Weiss gave the usual update, saying the quarter is going well. Mike always sounds bored, I think because he has a low opinion of how Wall Street has treated TG through their whole development and launch process. Maybe another good quarter of Briumvi sales will get analysts’ attention. Buy TGTX under $12 for a target price in a buyout of $30 or more.
Primary Risk:Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Never
Inflation MegaShift
Last Friday’s metal meltdown, driven by technical selling and hedge funds cutting back longs, was triggered by a Bank of China gold buying pause, rising Singapore Exchange copper stocks, and accelerated by dollar and yield strength following the “surprisingly strong” US jobs report.
Click for larger graphic h/t @Ole_S_Hansen
Gold ($2,319.70) still goes up on days inflation looks less likely because that means an easier Fed which means a weaker dollar. This is bass-ackwards from the logical relationship that gold is a hedge against inflation, but it is what it is. Because I expect inflation to – slowly – continue to cool, I’ll take it. Even in today’s sell-off it found good support at $2,300 an ounce.
Miners & Related
First Majestic (AG – $6.09) announced positive drilling results at the San Dimas Silver/Gold Mine in Durango State, Mexico. CEO Keith Neumeyer said: “The recent drilling has continued to highlight San Dimas’ 71,867 hectare prospectivity through the intersection of significant gold and silver mineralization. Drilling to convert Inferred to Indicated Mineral Resources at Perez, Santa, and Elia has, in multiple cases, returned better than expected results. Resource expansion drilling has confirmed the Perez vein remains open to the east and west, the Sinaloa mineralized system is open down-dip, and the Santa Teresa mineralization is open for approximately one kilometre to the west.”
AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.23) did a first quarter and asset review:
SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $66,811.05) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bought two months of the entire bitcoin mining supply in the first week of June. All the spot bitcoin ETFs just finished a record 19-day streak of inflows, seeing ~$4 billion of new money (orange box below). This includes the second-largest daily inflow of $887 million last week on June 4. During this streak, BTC’s price went from $66,900 on May 17 to $66,811 now. In other words, a record daily streak of $4 billion of new money and no upward movement in price? Why?
I see two possible answers. One is I have it all wrong, and despite the record inflows and talk of asset manager adoption, these are really tiny numbers that just don’t matter enough to move the price needle. The other is that these record inflows should matter, but there is an offset. Money is moving from on-chain to the ETFs, and very little new money is coming in. It’s just a bunch of swapping around. The record BTC high was March 13 at $73,000. Clearing that should bring in fresh money – lots of it.
Click for larger graphic h/t @biancoresearch
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $37.90) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $77.96
There were substantial draws on crude oil and gasoline this week that will increase as we move through the summer driving season. Monday’s crude rally completed a recovery back from the “taper tantrum” to pre-OPEC+ meeting price levels. Oil market positioning is deeply offsides as hedge funds and Commodity Trading Advisers wrongly bet that OPEC would splinter. This extreme positioning will be forcibly unwound in coming weeks as continuing inventory draws catch Managed Money wrong-footed.
Net oil length (the financial demand for oil) just hit its lowest level in at least 13 years. This is an epic divergence between the paper (financial) and physical oil markets. “Everyone” is bearish on demand, global oil inventories are falling and will hit all-time low by year-end, demand is on the cusp of the seasonal inflection up, the US rig count is down. But…with a 30x to 50x size advantage, the Commodity Trading Advisers and algos are winning for now. It all comes down to Summer draws.
Click for larger graphic h/t @ericnuttall
Click for larger graphic h/t @WinfieldSmart
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $69.85 reference price – no trades) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $39.19) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
* * * * *
Your getting Neil Howe’s take Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
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MM: I didn’t receive the usual email notice of the new report. Just a heads up.
I am in the same boat now for months. Good luck with that.
You can sign up at https://newworldinvestor.com/new-list/ or email me at newworldinvestor@gmail.com to be added
WOW, a whopping 6.3 trillion dollars added to our debt in ONE QUARTER…Unflipping unbelievable. What we have here is a failure to communicate. One part of our dysfunctional government is shooting the other part in the foot. Powell and the FED are pulling out all the stops to tame inflation while the other part is running up the debt flag. It’s all about the debt. The debt is the reason the FED’s efforts are not working as fast as he expected. DUH!! Inflation in the US is 40 percent higher than in the Eurozone. Go figure. And to think the FED has some 400 PHD’s crunching numbers!! Get a flipping clue .
You know I have little respect for academics. In medicine, they denigrate the benefits of natural substances because they are funded by Big Pharma. In economics, most academic economists believe in wrongheaded socialism because universities are out of touch with the concerns of real people who want to be free. They deny the worldwide economic and moral failures of socialism, and many are outright Commies. The greatest 20th century economist, Ludwig von Mises, who founded the Austrian School advocated freedom, the gold standard. His treatise, Human Action recognizes that human choice determines economic reality and is not predictable by econometric models, basically numbers games. PhD means piled high and deep. BS means bullshit, MS means more shit.
MD means “mentally deficient?” 😉
Go to your own (typical) drug pushing MD who is mentally deficient. That’s why you pay Life Extension to do important tests that your MDMD refuses to do.
Yes that would be shocking if it were true. A simple fact check from FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN shows a year over year of about 3 trillion. Still a lot but one needs to fact check this newsletter.
MM–on VLD, thanks for finally recognizing financial reality and changing your buy and target to $10 (pre reverse split 0.2857) and target $100 (pre split 2.857) which I think are now realistic.
AKBA–please answer my question posed last week. Why can’t they sell Vafseo before TDAPA goes into effect Jan 2025? Of course TDAPA will bring in more money, but why throw away time and money by not getting any revenue for V this year? Their cash situation isn’t good, so any revenue would be important.
Time and money are the main problems of small companies, esp for VLD. VLD’s tech is first rate, but the time from bookings to revenue is an unconscionably slow 3-6 months, which must be shortened for VLD to greatly reduce the extent of dilution required to raise money until they get to free cash flow even.
They are doing all the necessary pre-launch work, talking to doctors and getting insurance coverage. I expect they want a big launch so by the end of the TDAPA period they are the first choice, They have plenty of money: “Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2024, were approximately $42.0 million. Akebia expects its existing cash resources and cash from operations will be sufficient to fund its current operating plan, including a U.S. Vafseo launch, for at least the next two years.”
Thanks. All that is good. But we and they knew Vafseo would be approved way back in October 2023, and they had plenty of time since then to do pre-launch work. They could have launched by now, getting payments before the TDAPA bonus kicks in after Jan 2025. Launch on Jan 1, 2025 won’t be any bigger than it would have been if launch started on approval 3 months ago. Is there anything in TDAPA that would have shortened the bonus period (now maybe up to 3 years) if they had launched in the Fall, as originally planned? Why did they throw away the opportunity to get more cash from V sales in 2024? There is no guarantee that V sales will get the company profitable within 2 years of launch. It is stupid to turn down sales opportunities. Since at least Oct 2023 or before, they have been sitting on their asses taking losses, since Auryxia is a money loser. That’s why the stock has cratered since V approval.
“Native born jobs fell 663,000 while foreigners (mostly illegal aliens) increased 414,000.”
How are these figures calculated? Do employers check the illegal alien box on their hiring form? Do illegal aliens willfully admit that they are illegal? This smells like fox propaganda.
However, I do know that natives won’t do jobs like dairy, poultry, agriculture, slaughtering animals or many other ugly labor jobs but those numbers are not reported.
American would come to a grinding halt if we stopped the importation of labor.
Hi,
Don’t you feel that Palantir is very richly valued with its very high PE?
It is. But earnings are going to grow faster for longer than Wall Street expects. Buying some here and more later – higher or lower – may make the most sense.
the next big lottery APTO at 300 – is missing from the lists of top ones as do quite a few others ..no mention of Holds like ARTH
yes so far nothing here to see!
Speaking of ARTH, Mr. Murphy, what’s status of their Internal Development???
They are about to start the triplet trial. Even though it’s a Phase 1/2, I expect it will be enough to get conditional approval.
ARTH doesn’t have enough money to do the internal trial.
VLD – “I expect the usual dip after a reverse split followed by a steady rise based on quarterly results.”
MM’s prediction ignores the extensive dilution that VLD shareholders will be subjected to for the remainder of 2024.
It’s likely that next week Velo will announce a capital raise because they have a $10.5 million note payment due in 2 weeks and no funds with which to pay it at the moment. Given they are likely running on fumes now (they only had $5.7M in cash as of 5/9/24) they probably need to raise at least $20 million just to get them through the next 3 months. At today’s closing stock price of $3.43, $20 million is 5.8 million additional shares, or roughly 70% more shares than the 8.5 million post split shares that are currently outstanding now. So what will that do to the stock price?
And they’ll need to do additional capital raises later in the year to cover:
the $10.5 million note payment due October 1stthe $10.5 million note payment due at year-endwhatever amount is needed to cover their operating cash deficitsVelo is in the very unfortunate position of having to raise a proportionally huge amount of funding this year, $31.5 million to cover note payments and likely $20 million plus to cover their operating cash burn with a low, and falling stock price. Massive dilution is unavoidable, which means their share price will continue to be driven lower. It’s even possible that by year-end they’ll find their stock price once again below $1.
Velo may report some positive news from their quarterly results, and see brief pops in the stock as a result, but I can’t see it being enough to overcome the downward trend that will result from all the dilution. And based on recent history, Velo is just as likely to have disappointing news or guidance when they report as they are to meet or beat guidance.
The silver lining is that VLD will only have a final $2 million payment left on their note after this year. If they can get their business on track this year then they may be in a position at the beginning of 2025 where they no longer need to raise additional capital and the stock can trade based more on the status of their business without the dilution concerns.
Thanks for your financial analysis. 70% more shares = PPS of 100/170 or 59% of the PPS before that 70% dilution. For closing PPS $3.31 on June 14, that’s about $2.00 after dilution. Then to raise $31.5 million for end 2024 expenses at PPS $2.00 requires almost 16 million more shares to be added to 14.3 (8.5 + 5.8) million shares, or dilution of over 100%, cutting the PPS to just below $1.00 (less than 3 cents pre reverse split). If they achieve cash flow breakeven by 2024 (even MM thinks it will be later than that), the stock can multiply by 2 in 2025 and 10 times if we are lucky later to still only $2-10 or 6-30 cents pre reverse split. At MM’s recommended original buy price of $10 pre reverse split, that’s a loss of $9.94, or 99.4% in 2025, or $9.70 or 97% if we are lucky several years from now.
Q2 earnings report will be on about Aug 15, a long 2 months away. They may re-affirm 2024 guidance and hopefully mention growth in bookings in mid July, They should quickly update bookings every few weeks before the additional capital raise before Oct 1. That may get the PPS up to $10 this year, optimistically looking forward to continued growth. That would be a good exit point with a 97% loss. If long suffering subscribers are willing to be patient for another few years after that, people like me with net cost of 44 cents pre reverse split, or $15 might break even and even be in profit.
MM needs to give a MASSIVE APOLOGY right now for ignoring financial reality on this and many other NWI stocks. Can other NWI subscribers who have owned VLD share their average cost? Then MM can see the consequences to subscribers of ignoring financial reality. I don’t want to hear excuses that every subscriber is responsible for their own investing decisions. How can the investor be solely responsible if he is not provided crucial facts of financial reality, and throughout, MM kept repeating pie in the sky buy prices and targets?
Here’s an idea. Stay away from Murphy’s ridiculous picks. He keeps going for home runs when singles win the game. I’m down 94% on VLD which is my only Murphy pick .. oh and PLTR which I got into well before MM picked it ( I do think that stock will do well).
As I’ve said before, simply dollar cost averaging into SPY for the past decade would have blown away this newsletter’s picks. All this fractal crap is just voodoo.
At the post reverse split recommended price of $350, a current PPS of $3.15 is over 99% down. To be down 94%, you entered at about $50, or $1.40 pre reverse split. That’s when MM said it was a gift. I entered my first buy at $1.54 at that time. Congratulations–you are doing better than most subscribers, I bet. Other subscribers–what % loss do you have in VLD, or what is your average cost, pre reverse split?
What do you think is a reasonable buy price for PLTR? Your target?
MM does have good macroeconomic analysis. His overall market predictions are correct, and financial data and respected analysts he cites are interesting. So why does he ignore financial data for his recommended companies? His buy and target prices for small companies are way off reality. It would be like recommending the SPY when the S&P 500 is below 20,000 and selling at 1,000,000.
Yeah I can’t tell exactly my entry point but total gain is around -3000 bucks so I didn’t go in very hard.
I started buying PLTR about a year ago now and have DCA’d into a full position. Not sure about targets but this company is in the sweet spot of AI and military and all my software buddies that I keep in touch with say their commercial products are best of breed.
This a very much an AI play and I know you don’t like that playground 🙂
The 6 min video MM posted for PLTR is interesting. The guy said he can’t find skilled people, so AI provides a robotic solution. The only problem is that a person has to enter the relevant questions, and it is complicated to follow all the steps. It isn’t idiot proof and has its own risks of failure.
NVDA has skyrocketed recently. Is AI in a bubble? In bubbles nearly everyone is giddy that such and such is the next big thing. Only now, AI is not the next, it is THE thing now.
I missed NVDA but AMD is nipping at their heels and the demand is incredible. I’ve been DTCing into AMD.
OK, but I am wondering if most of the AI stocks are in a bubble. It feels like the Tulip mania. Tulips are pretty but have little intrinsic value. AI has a few good applications, but is only a tool and cannot be trusted to substitute for human judgment.
As an aside, several decades ago I wondered if my violin playing would take a giant leap forward if I got an expensive, fine old violin. Can a superior tool improve the sound, or is the best result still almost entirely due to the skill of the violinist? The answer is the latter. At concerts, when I was impressed with the sound of a performer, I went up to him and asked what violin he was playing. In many cases, it was nothing special.
Happy father’s day to all the dad’s out there.
Today I placed a small bet on a Trump victory in November. The upside is “yuge” and the downside small. In October I will add to my stake if a Trump victory seems more likely. As usual, I will vote for the candidate I dislike less. What I do like is an asymmetric bet. Anyone have one for a Biden victory?
Where did you place your bet? ElectionBettingOdds has an absolute chance for Trump victory at roughly 54%, Biden at 37%. However, the electoral map shows Republicans with only 268 electoral college votes, and Dems with 270. The 3 closest swing states, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn each have Dem odds at just over 50%, suggesting Dem victory. How do you explain the disparity?
Am I the only one who thinks we deserve 2 choices for President that are not named Biden or Trump?
I think everyone feels that way. Fortunately, this will be the last election with candidates this old.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election has Trump at an 11 point advantage.
I’m not betting but I will vote for the non criminal in November. If the stock market keeps its upwardish trajectory into November and we get a rate cut I think Biden is a shoe in with abortion effectively on the ballot. Turnout will be YUGE which is another dem advantage.
Of course, one or the other could die before the election then who the hell knows what happens.
Other than one of them passing away before the election, is there any other way that someone else could be elected on either side?
Yes. After the convention, Biden could announce he’s decided not to run, The Democrat National Committee could then pick a replacement candidate.
THEY NEED TO and NOT KAMALA republicans might need to do the same! as isaid republican running mate is very important!
Sure and give up decades of name recognition for a relatively unknown just months before the election. Smart.
Personally, I would vote for a ham sandwich over Trump but your scenario ain’t happening.
Biden is not as with it as a ham sandwich as i said we need other options but of these two the choice is easy!
Well, you better decide if you want your ham sandwich on rye or wheat bread. This turnout will be a record and what the right doesn’t understand is most of us don’t care for Biden at all. Just like 2020, most people are voting against trump, not for Biden.
well God help all of us as the world is looking to strike against this futile administration – i pray for you and everyones family and for our servicemen!
i was at 9/11 luckily survived – lost many friends after that attack an next one coming (i pray not) i would take ham on any bread! have you lived through such a disaster?
i was on brooklyn bridge as it was trembling with jets soaring overhead and 1st tower collapsing (2nd tower hit) sound was very eerie – will never forget -at the same time i realized how many lives were being lost!
i want someone who canprotect our people and our country something old Joe and Camalla cant do!! offer me another option – i will consider – as I said not a huge Trump fan and his VP decision will help my choice as he is no young man but compared to old Joe – i feel for starters he has our back.
Are you talking about the one that Bush Jr. ignored the intel reports about being imminent? I understand your fears but we have the biggest military in the world and we will be as protected under Biden as Trump.
BTW, PLTR is using AI to protect against such attacks. THAT is where you should be focused.
i understand if you do not back Trump but how in sane of mind can you support Biden and Kamala for 4 more years!
Well let me reverse it for you. If you didn’t care for the republican candidate, would you vote democrat or would you stay home?
depends on who democrat is – not a fair question!
RFK Jr.
If Biden “decides” not to run and the Dems nominate RFKJr., I think they would clobber Trump. But they seem to hate RFK Jr.
Electionbettingodds.com includes Predictit. This AM, T is 55% likely to win, B 35%. Wisconsin is 50.5% likely D, a little lower R. Michigan is 51% D, Penn is 51.5% D. The electoral college is still 270 in favor of D win. This disparity between T and the electoral college might be explained by the margin of error and the chance that only one of Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn will flip to R. Or, the world will see how disabled, incompetent and morally corrupt B is in the 6/27 debate that B will be replaced. But what other D has a chance? I would be infinitely happier with RFK, Jr, whose environmental record and knowledge about VEX facts I respect.
fivethirtyeight.com is the most reliable polling organization:
UPDATED JUN. 18, 2024, AT 12:56 PM
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Trump wins 50 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Biden wins 49 times out of 100.
There is a 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
Biden is already dead – Trump may not be around too long his vice is a very important decision – Kamala is a TOTAL loser – russian ships in Cuba – China – Iran – North Korea situation enemies already thruough the border – attack is imminent! Thanks Joe
can you explain the charges to me? the charges against all the Bidens are pending and are more severe
“Charges against all the Bidens” is your fantasy world gone astray. Drug addict Hunter Biden was convicted just like Trump. There are no charges or trials pending for Joe Biden, but a handful for Trump. Make up all the false stories you want if it makes you feel good but you are out of contact with reality.
A simple google search: Trump was convicted on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in order to hide a conspiracy to unlawfully interfere in the 2016 presidential election.
Plenty of people have been charged with a that same crime and rarely go to jail.
As to the Biden crime family, indict them, set a trial date, sit a jury and let’s go!
Yes, plenty of people have been charged like Trump, and rarely go to jail. True. Why was TRUMP charged and “convicted”? Why now, after many years of not doing so? Dems are afraid of their lousy record on foreign policy, stronger terrorist countries like Iran from weak JB policies, etc. Most importantly, the fact that Trump is leading in polls. The “conviction” is the work of the dirty judicial system under Dems, and is true election interference. Case closed.
Hunter Biden was found guilty of three feloniees for illegally possessing a firearm, giving a false statement in buying it, and providing that false statement to a licensed gun dealer. He may also face charges for tax evasion.
Trump was found guilty of 34 felonies relating to creating false business records relating to his hush money payments to Stormy Daniels.
Trump also faces 32 federal charges in South Florida of willful retention of national defense information, plus 3 counts of withholding or concealing documents in a federal investigation, 2 counts of false statements about classified documents, 2 counts for altering, destroying, concealing a record relating to security cameras and 1 count of conspiracy with 2 employees who helped hide the documents.
In the DC federal case stemming from his attempts to illegally overturn the election he is charged with 1 count of violating 18 USC 241 https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/241 one of conspiracy to commit fraud against the US https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/241 and 2 counts for corrupt obstruction of an official proceeding and for conspiracy to do so.
In Georgia he faces multiple charges for his attempts to interfere with the outcome of the election in that state having to do with his taped phone call to the Republican governor and Secy of State of Georgia trying to get them to find 11,000 more votes, intimidating election officials and multiple other crimes. You can read the indictment here:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/read-the-full-georgia-indictment-against-trump-and-18-allies
WRONG on the election overturning claim. Check fundamental premises. If assumptions are incorrect, then all that follows is also incorrect, even more so. That’s a mathematical axiom. The 2020 election WAS stolen. At about 3 AM while most people were asleep, the hacked machines suddenly switched votes in massive numbers. The fraudulent extra votes for JB created from dead voter rolls, mail in votes, lack of proper ID, etc., all were created with the same phony-ness as dollars printed by the Fed. The mainstream media has successfully censored the truth and destroyed the careers of many highly educated people who questioned the mainstream narrative. And to hell with Cornell law, misapplied in these matters. The real conspiracy to commit fraud against the US was by Dems who stole the election and suppressed the truth about it. The mainstream PBS is a Dem mouthpiece. Total lies. Georgia was just another case of malfunctioning voter machines with all the fraud of the national election.
Outside of legal fictions, the most important truth is that the open border under the auspices of JB has let in large numbers of terrorists. The latest well publicized example is the killing of a Conn woman by a known foreign terrorist, leaving her 5 children without their mother. JB will not take responsibility for that murder because he created the conditions for it. That means JB is the true terrorist. 2-3 weeks ago, not far from my office in NYC, another terrorist with a record shot and injured 2 police officers. JB is the real terrorist.
A Dem voter can be ignorant of the truth. Ignorance can be cured by learning about the wrongheaded theories of socialism which is the forerunner of more severe tyrannical and murderous communism. My job as a doctor is to educate people without sufficient knowledge, honorable work. I educate them about taking personal responsibility, which applies to health and also to every aspect of life. But intellectual liberals such as many subscribers here should have a basic understanding of why socialism is vastly inferior to free market capitalism in not only economic results for the greatest number of people, but more importantly for the inherent immorality of socialism in its forced stealing of others’ property and loss of individual freedoms, theft in itself. I asked a well known poster here to admit that all people including himself desire freedom to live their life without interference from others. He dodged this issue, and I am 99.99% certain that as an accomplished investor and expert in his career, he values individual freedom. But why does he advocate socialism which is basically a system of progressive usurpation of individual rights ultimately resulting in tyrannical dictatorship? He refuses to answer this. I know why–there is no answer. It is the nature of the beastly theory of collectivism in all its degrees–socialism, communism.
I welcome the opportunity to educate ignorant people. But I cannot tolerate educated people who stubbornly vote to hurt me by their choices of politicians with those beliefs. But they don’t realize they are hurting themselves in the process, by denying freedoms that should be enjoyed by all. They rationalize their contradictions by scheming to get their benefits at the expense of everyone else who is not so devilishly clever or well-connected.
Who is the worst terrorist–the terrorist politician like JB or the stubborn incorrigible person who votes for him? Sparring politicians crucify opponents during campaigns, and when the war is over, the loser concedes and shakes hands with the winner. That shows that the politicians are treating all this as a game, with good sportsmanship being displayed by conceding and shaking hands. The Dems are selling socialism, the good Repubs (unfortunately not too many) are selling the promise of freedom. Their store shelves are filled with toys that their voters want. It can well be argued that the voters who vote for the tyrants are the real tyrants, and the Dem politicians are just giving them what they want.
you should check out judical watch “what is eric and why it matters”
Thanks. The relevant article from the search is on page 3, top left, “What is ERIC.” There is plenty of evidence of election tampering. In fairness, liberals say Judicial Watch is disinformation, and conservatives say liberal organizations present disinformation. How do outsiders like us obtain the truth? One way is the smell test.
Giuliani was the best mayor in the nearly 400 year history of NYC. I witnessed social degradation in NYC before him, and he cleaned it up, making it a safer and more prosperous place to live. Of course, he became a 9/11 hero for his work after that tragedy. Yet he lost his law license and radio program for his claims that the 2020 election was stolen. He declared bankruptcy to defend against the legal persecution he is suffering. Anyone is entitled to free speech even if they are incorrect.
In contrast, current Dem mayor Eric Adams supported NYC as a sanctuary city for oppressed immigrants, promising to take care of them all. But important spending for basic services for citizens has suffered as the money is diverted to housing migrants in expensive hotels and such. Adams is soft on crime.
So who, Giuliani or Adams, passes the smell test for honesty and good management?
I’m surprised no one asked me for details about my asymmetric bet on Trump winning. But with a goal of finding an asymmetric bet on a Biden victory and to get you folks to put on your thinking caps, here’s the bet I made for a Trump victory.
I bought shares of NAK, which has mining rights for a VERY rich chunk of land in Alaska. Under Biden the indigenous tribes in the area have been successful in keeping NAK from getting permits to mine. I can easily imagine Trump (whose favorite president was either Andy Jackson or Trump) sticking it to those Native Americans and permitting NAK to mine. So …
Cui bono si Biden vincit?
I just assumed you used a betting site. BTW, Fisker electric cars filed for BK, the word is that Lucid and Rivian are on the edge. Adding to my Tesla holdings here.
It makes me wonder why Musk is suddenly sorta supporting Trump. I think he knows that electric cars are looked down on by the right as they are bought and paid for by big oil. Musk might be playing the long game here.
I thought you liked Lucid. Am I misremembering or did you revise as they fell?
I did when they got started. They have run into production hell and unlike Tesla, I don’t think they will get through it.
While anything is possible, I find it hard to believe that Lucid and Rivian are going BK with Lucid having the backing of the Saudi’s and Rivian with Jeff Bezos.
It’s all about sales. I’ve only seen 1 Lucid that I recall, there a few Rivian trucks around ( which are very nice looking) but every 3rd or 4th car I see is a Tesla
The model Y is the best selling care in the world.
I saw a cyber truck the other day. Mindblown.
I preordered one when they were announced and they just sent me a configuration order. The dual motor is 99k and the tri motor is 119k.
I’m sticking with my 2021 Model 3.
While he has flaws, Musk for a long time has supported free speech, lack of censorship, free market capitalism. Dems oppose those things.
You seem to think Trump hates the little poor guy and loves the rich. But Blacks in Dem controlled cities have been hurt by high crime and poor economic policies from Dems. Many smart Blacks are moving from JB to Trump, realizing that they have the same interests as smart Whites–freedom, opportunity, low taxes, fewer regulations, etc. But the Blacks who favor welfare benefits have been hurt when the poor economy caused by Dems doesn’t generate enough money to go around. Now even these welfare oriented Blacks are angry that the JB socialist ilk is giving the illegal immigrants preferential treatment over those Blacks. Of course these latter Blacks are right to be angry. JB has failed them, and now the sole reason JB opens the border to all these illegals is to get their votes. Screw the Blacks, and get the illegals to replace their votes. Rinse and repeat. This isn’t about compassion for the politically persecuted in foreign countries. It is to get votes. LIAR, JB. EVIL.
“The blacks that favor welfare benefits.” Well doc, you’ve said all we need to hear.
I liked “The election WAS stolen.” Not only did his VP Mike Pence, AG Bill Barr, daughter Ivanka, campaign manager Bill Stepien, Deputy AG Richard Donoghue, data expert Matt Oczkowski, campaign lawyer Alex Cannon, Kellyanne Conway and his administration’s election security experts ( https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/news/joint-statement-elections-infrastructure-government-coordinating-council-election ) all agree that he lost, but even Trump and Meadows discussed the fact that he lost but was too embarrassed to say so publicly https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cassidy-hutchinson-meadows-january-6-supreme-court-2020-election-2022-10 , Every American should know that Trump’s advisers told him the early returns were likely to show him ahead (the “red mirage”) but as more votes were counted his lead would fade and that Trump’s plan to claim victory on election night was set forth in a memo written by his adviser Tom Fitton three days before the election and affirmed by Roger Stone.
“If assumptions are incorrect, then all that follows is also incorrect” Trumpers assume the election was stolen because Trump claims it was, despite a lack of evidence.
Who you cite are biased mouthpieces. Pence, Barr and most of the rest are known as RINO’s, Republicans in name only. Trump’s administration was filled with RINO traitors that he didn’t properly vet (his fault) and are basically Dems in their power hungry goals and professed ideology. I don’t know about the motivations of Ivanka, though. As for data experts, they can be paid to say anything desired. I have experience in the courtroom listening to expert doctor witnesses who don’t know what they are talking about. Business Insider is a leftwing rag. Govt websites are biased. Even the accuracy of data is questionable.
Other elections had tampering. Kari Lake in Arizona was sabotaged. Election interference from voting machines and other dishonest procedures. Elon Musk opposes voting machines. Many foreign elections such as Taiwan and France have hand counting and the winner is declared that night. It is well known that tyrant dictators have been “re-elected” by tampered voting machines for decades. Dictators have to cheat, because no citizen in their right mind would vote for them after living through all the atrocities.
Nancy Pelosi recently admitted that she mismanaged the Jan 6 affair. Trump called for National Guard deployment, but Pelosi refused, wanting to stage the event to place blame on Trump.
That’s just a factual statement. You didn’t say, but it is clear that you think that is a racist comment. You have definitely used the race accusation card many times in the past. That’s what a typical Dem says about someone he disagrees with. This is bad behavior. I could have said, “the whites who favor welfare benefits” and my point would still be valid that JB is giving illegals preferential treatment over any US citizen for welfare benefits. But I referred to Blacks only because many smart Blacks are switching from JB to Trump.
This is getting really silly.
Show me a poll where the so called smart blacks are switching to Trump.
Would the poll go like this? Question 1: are you black ?, question 2: are you smart ?, question 3: are you switching your vote from Biden to Trump?
Doc, we really need to stay focused on the penny stocks going BK on this board.
You think there has to be a poll for everything? I have lots of decently educated Blacks in my practice. I try to keep politics on the back burner, but many of their views and certainly their goals are the same as whites and other groups. They all desire individual freedoms, hate preferential treatment, company politics that treat them unfairly, etc. I don’t ask them who they vote for, but it is obvious.
No, I think there have been polls that show Trump gaining more of the Black vote over time, although Blacks still mostly vote Dem. The Blacks have been indoctrinated that Dems are better for them than Repubs. But why do Blacks suffer more both socially and economically in Dem controlled cities than in non Dem areas? Smart Blacks realize that they have the same goals as smart non Blacks. The Dem politicians indoctrinate them that they are a special interest group that must fight the whites and others and gain advantage. The Dems have failed the Blacks.
Unlike you, I think Trump respects property rights. The foundation of his real estate wealth is the principle of property rights. The fair way to handle this is to first recognize the Native Americans’ property rights. Form a partnership between them and the outsider developers. See how many of these Natives are interested in no development and preserving their property as is. Then compare to the Natives who are interested in profiting from the development of the natural resources on their property. The odds are that many more Natives are interested in responsible development that doesn’t destroy all their land but keeps it productive and livable so they can make profits which improve their lifestyle. Mining can be done responsibly without poisoning the environment. Better technology can do it.
“I read a great comment on politics that completely changed my mind.” – said no one, ever
Well then, stop doing it Mikey.
For the record, it was leftie Opie who started the recent political tirade on NWI with his GUILTY word thrown around 34 times in one post. It was appropriate to call out the wrongs committed by the Leftist judge Merchan in the trial. The rational law professors Alan Dershowitz and Jonathan Turley are more qualified than any poster here. They said the trial was a sham.
You seem to have deleted your post which said that most Dems are voting against Trump instead of for JB. I agree. Smart Dems recognize that JB is incompetent. But you don’t admit that JB is a terrorist enabler. Trump kept Iran’s nuclear program in check by cutting off their finances. The Oct 7 Israel massacre was done by Hamas, an Iran surrogate. Even if you hate Trump, by voting for JB you are contributing to the destruction of the US and the entire free world. You think you can escape the dangers by hiding and accumulating more wealth. But the Commies/tyrants are coming for you as well.
If you’re on a plane, do you want a politically correct pilot who is incompetent and could kill you, or a pilot who is a conservative Repub who will keep you safe?
If you’re on a plane, do you want a Republican pilot who is incompetent and could kill you, or a pilot who is a Democrat who will keep you safe?
May I remind you that on Sept 11, 2001, al qaeda’s attempt to attack the capitol was thwarted by a few brave passengers?
And on January 6, 2021, Trump sent his mob to attack the capitol trying to stop Biden from being confirmed as president?
Do you want to live by mob rule instead of our justice system?
Use of the term “RINO” for people like Pence, Barr, Romney, Liz Cheney, Gov, Kemp and Gov Deucey indicates that MAGA is a cult https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cult
All the above have been lifelong Republicans, unlike Trump who has ping-ponged between Democrat and Republican (and lest we forget his run for the Reform Part candidacy for the 2000 presidential race).
You misinterpreted the context of my statement. Of course on a plane, I would take a competent Dem pilot over an incompetent Repub pilot. A pilot has a job to get passengers to their destination safely. I am not interested in his politics.
Yes, we are grateful to the brave passengers who thwarted the 9/11 attacks on the Capitol. But you are completely mistaken about Jan 6. Trump encouraged people to protest on the Capitol lawn. Nowhere did he advise them to invade the Capitol. The invasion was done by outside groups in disguise. Trump actually called for the National Guard to provide security, but Nancy Pelosi and Bow Wowser mayor of DC refused. They staged the event so Trump would appear like he was to blame. There were actually govt officials who opened the doors to encourage people to unlawfully enter the chambers of Congress. Pelosi, Bowwowser and govt officials deliberately enabled the mob.
The “justice” system is corrupt. Alan Dershowitz and Jonathan Turley know this better than you. In liberal dominant NYC, it is difficult for ANYONE to get a fair trial, unless they are a prominent Dem and then they will more likely get a favorable outcome.
Wikipedia is part of the corrupt tech censorship gang whose propaganda is not to be trusted. I have learned to read Wiki, Yahoo, Google carefully, struggling to judge what is really true and distinguish that from politically biased propaganda. Why don’t you start by critiquing Judicial Watch?
As for MAGA being a cult, do you want a president like JB who sells CCP access to US secrets, acts against America’s interests by enabling Iran terrorists who attack Israel and who will sooner get deadly nukes than on the watch of a president who thinks America First and wants to make America great again? Perhaps you are actually a globalist who wants to surrender health care decisions to a central WHO dictatorial entity, supported by JB and many other Dems, but not RFK, Jr who is one of the few Dems I respect. RFK is a good guy who supports individual health freedom of choice. He is still a liberal on many issues, so why do most Dems hate him? Answer–they oppose individual choice for everything other than abortion.
“Nancy Pelosi and Bow Wowser mayor of DC … staged the event so Trump would appear like he was to blame. There were actually govt officials who opened the doors to encourage people to unlawfully enter the chambers of Congress. Pelosi, Bowwowser and govt officials deliberately enabled the mob.”
This is total BS. The Trump-enranged mob fought police, pushed through barriers, smashed through windows, forced their way through and rampaged our government buildings. They are criminals who have been convicted. You prefer to live in a fantasy world. That’s how the Trump world operates…make up fake stories. Trump is a convicted criminal, who brags about sexually assaulting women. This is your choice.
Au contraire
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/43449-how-often-and-why-do-americans-change-their-minds
Interesting. It is desirable to have an open mind to re-evaluate assumptions as events unfold. It is frustrating to interact with someone who refuses to entertain new ideas. But certain broad principles are always going to be true, such as individual freedom of choice and respect for others who want their freedom respected without interference from others. The soundness of free market capitalism is how disagreements can be welcomed as long as there is no interference. Socialists claim that they want to help everyone get their benefits, but they conveniently ignore that interference in individual rights by taxing everyone so the beneficiaries can get their benefits is a necessary tool to achieve their utopian dreams. The end result is conflict as people are forced into operating by other people’s standards that they don’t agree with. This conflict actually leads to rigidity in refusing to change minds. In free market capitalism, disagreements are tolerated only because there is no force compelling conformity to a universal standard.
In my medical practice, I have ideas about what I think is the best way for an individual. The best patients may have a different way. We discuss the various options in an open manner. Often, they make a good case for their point of view. If they make logical sense, I agree that their way is best. I say, OK, let’s try it your way, but be sure to return in a month or so to see how things are going. We are both happy with that open minded approach.
Just noticed a 100% loss in an old account for another Murphy gem, CWBR. Fortunately it was ONLY a grand.
I just wish he would tell us when to dump stuff. Cathie Wood dumped all NVTA and he kept calling it the Amazon of genetic testing. I had DNDN and it went straight into the crapper. I didn’t sell a single share and got nothing but a write off. Now I am holding BLPH, INO, and so many others that I am losing 90% or more on. INO was 14.00 a few months ago. Hold forever? Why they have n othing? I rely on him even though these are all dogs with fleas and I don’t sell because his weekly crap is hold forever. I could have bought AAPL and put probably 30k into it, but no, I have 15 stocks @ 2,000 each that are worth perhaps 100 each. He sells pipe dreams and I did it because I figured they were worth a shot. I didn’t put my life savings, but in some cases I added. I bought INO as he was ranting and raving about the covid vaccine and the other drug. So, I put in way more than 2k. Likewise BLPH was going to go crazy according to him and it went straight into the toilet. AKBA, VELO the rocket company. all pure crap.
In all fairness to MM, if you’re referring to the $20 for $1 stocks, he’s pretty open about the risks involved with these stocks, and they’re not intended to be a major part of a portfolio. If that’s not what you’re talking about, sorry for butting in,
Just because a stock is risky doesn’t mean you fall asleep and don’t stay informed about a company’s financial situation. MM is a financial analyst and should be doing his job at financial analysis, which he is not. Yet he does good general market analysis and analyzes financial data in the macroeconomy. Why not do the same for NWI investments?
MM–how about it? For small stocks, it is better to admit a mistake and get out with a 20% loss, rather than riding it into the gutter. We can always re-enter at a much lower price when the financials look more attractive.
He does say he doesn’t give investment advice. Personally, I think he may have too many stocks on his list to keep up with. But it’s still the responsibility of the stock owner to decide how long to hold a specific holding. Believe me, I’ve had my share of losers.
Actually, more accurately, a newsletter writer says he doesn’t give INDIVIDUAL advice, except if he has a money management side business, he will do that for the appropriate fee.
And statements that the writer is not responsible for general advice given are just legal copouts. The truth is that the writer IS giving advice, by saying buy up to X, and target is Y. If he is sincere and working diligently, subscribers trust that he is making his best efforts to explain the possible risks and rewards. This is only valid if he does his job in analyzing the financial status of his companies recommended. There is no legal risk to MM, but he has lost loads of subscribers over the years because he is not doing a thorough job.
Louis Navellier follows many stocks, but does a better job than MM with financial analysis of his recommendations. He advises subscribers to get out with only modest losses, never allowing any stock to kill their financial survival.
Richard Young followed blue chips. Rule #1–never take a loss. Rule #2–never forget rule #1. OK, these challenging stocks in NWI are much more risky than established blue chips, but the spirit of Young’s rules should be followed as well as possible.
New World Investor for 6.20.24 is posted. Selling APTO, ARTH, ACRDF, and MNGGF.