Dear New World Investor:
There’s a lot of optimism going into the June quarter earnings season. With the bar set this high, watching how companies perform and, most importantly, how the market reacts will be key.
Click for larger graphic h/t @Mayhem4Markets
Since I moved Apple and Meta to a Hold on July 3, they and the rest of the Magnificent 7 have been clobbered. There should be a reprieve when they start reporting good earnings in a couple of weeks, but then I expect the relative underperformance to continue for a while. BofA pointed out that history shows the winners from new tech booms are often the broad economy, not early investor favorites.
Click for larger graphic h/t @WinfieldSmart
I’ll say the usually-wrong words: “I think this time is different.” The big guys have many more years that they will dominate. Of course the AI boom will peak sometime – just not yet. I fully expect to put Apple and Meta back on the buy list soon.
This morning’s weekly jobless claims report showed 243,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending July 13, up from 222,000 the week prior, and above the 229,000 economists expected. This tied with a weekly jobless claims reading from June for the highest level of weekly filings since August 2023. The number of continuing applications for unemployment benefits hit its highest level since November 2021 at nearly 1.87 million.
The economy is weakening rapidly. Bloomberg’s Economic Surprise Index is plummeting, which means the 10-year US Treasury yield is about to head for 3%, which means either:
◌ the S&P rallies because lower rates, or
◌ the S&P falls because bad economy
Click for larger graphic h/t @jimwpaulsen
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 lost 0.7% since last Thursday after setting new all-time highs on Tuesday. The Index is up 16.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.3% as the rotation from Mag 7 to small-cap continued. That included a 2.77% drop on Wednesday, it’s worst day since 2022. It is up 19.1% for the year.
Seasonally, the second half of July usually sees a drop in stock prices. But Jim Paulsen pointed out that for the first time in this bull market the Mag 7 has pulled back or paused while the S&P ex-Mag 7 has held relatively strong. In spite of yesterday and today’s S&P drop, maybe we can have a Mag 7 correction without a market rout?
Click for larger graphic h/t @jimwpaulsen
The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 0.4% even though it booked a 2024 high on Tuesday. It is up 9.7% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 added 3.4% after an 11.5% run up in five days. In the last 30 years it’s only exceeded that after major crises: Long Term Capital Management, dot-com, Great Financial Crisis, the 2011 US debt downgrade, and the pandemic. For a pure rotation, this is unprecedented. It now is up 8.4% in 2024.
The fractal dimension registered a welcome consolidation week, but it will take many more weeks or negative points to get to the fully recharged level at 55.
Top 5
Changes this week: Added AKBA to Short-Term
Near-Term – chronological order
SCYX – ScyNexis – Data releases and resolution of the manufacturing problem
CMPS – Compass Pathways – Phase 3 data release and rebound from negative AdCom review of MDMA
TGTX TG Therapeutics – Rapid recovery from overdone pullback
AAPL Apple – AI announcements at June WWDC and September iPhone 16 introduction
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo TDAPA approval in January
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for June quarter real GDP growth rose to +2.7%, well above the Blue Chip economists’ forecast. I don’t see how it could be that strong, but we’ll find out next Thursday morning.
Click for larger graphic
In an expansion, accelerating temporary payrolls momentum (light blue line) filters through positively to inflation-adjusted business equipment investing (lilac line). In a recession, the opposite dynamic ensues. To give you a feel for the current cycle, 2023’s third and fourth quarters saw sequential quarterly (QoQ) declines in temp employment of -9.0% and -8.1%, respectively. That compares to -3.7% and -6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, at the onset of the Great Recession.
Click for larger graphic h/t @DiMartinoBooth
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Tuesday, July 23
FCX – Freeport McMoRan – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
EQT – EQT – After the close – Earnings release: call tomorrow
Wednesday, July 24
EQT – EQT – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
Business Employment Dynamics Report – 10:00am
Short Interest – After the close
Thursday, July 25
June quarter GDP – 8:30am – First estimate
Friday, July 26
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $224.18) TV+ got a record 72 Emmy nominations, including their first-ever Outstanding Limited Series for Lessons in Chemistry, an Outstanding Drama Series for both The Morning Show and Slow Horses, and an Outstanding Comedy Series for Palm Royale. STEVE! (martin) a documentary in 2 pieces and Girls State got multiple nominations, including Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special.
After downgrading Apple’s stock just over a year ago and, I am sure, giving the sales force multiple opportunities to write sell tickets, Loop Capital upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy and raised its target to a Street-high $300, giving the sales force multiple opportunities to write buy tickets. See how this works? AAPL is a HOLD – I expect to move it back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $73.51) announced that Chief Medical Officer Merdad Parsey, MD, PhD, will leave the company early next year. While the company works to identify a successor, Dr. Parsey will continue as Chief Medical Officer until the first quarter of 2025 and support this transition over the next several months.
I don’t think this is what happened:
Click for larger graphic h/t @GooseData
The transition is too drawn-out to be anything other than Parsey retiring (he’s 61) after five years at Gilead following a long, successful career. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $80 for a first target of $120.
Meta Platforms (META – $475.85) ended a five-day slide today, capped off by a 5.7% drop on Wednesday. Wolfe Research initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $620 target. Well, yeah, someday.
The European Union has long been the enemy of US Big Tech, mostly (I suspect) from jealously. So Meta announced they will not offer their upcoming multimodal Llama AI model and future versions to customers in the European Union “due to the unpredictable nature of the European regulatory environment.” Take that! The move could prevent anyone who planned to build services using Meta’s AI models from offering them in Europe.
Apple also recently announced it would not release its Apple Intelligence features in Europe due to regulatory concerns. Margrethe Vesteger, the EU’s Competition Commissioner, slammed Apple’s move, saying that Apple’s decision was a “stunning, open declaration that they know 100% that this is another way of disabling competition where they have a stronghold already.”
Cry me a river, Margrethe. The European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) is a law designed to rein in the power of major (read “US”) tech companies. You want to turn first-world countries into second- or third-world in the digital age? Just keep doing what you’re doing. META is a Hold – I expect to move it back to a Buy under $400.
Palantir (PLTR – $28.64) got a $50 “bull case” (whatever that is) target from Wedbush to go with their $35 target and Outperform rating. They said that a notable milestone in Palantir’s growth strategy has been the completion of over 1,300 bootcamps, with over 500 in the past three months alone, highlighting the practical, real-time value users can derive from their technology. They wrote: “With AI spending taking up more spending in IT budgets as more organizations learn how to properly implement this tech, we believe the Messi of AI Palantir is in a prime spot to continue expanding its pipeline as the company provides more use cases.” Messi, for you soccer non-fans, is Leo Messi, who captains both the Major League Soccer club Inter Miami and the Argentina national team.
The Washington Post reported that President Trump’s team is crafting an AI executive order that could reshape the tech landscape if he returns to office. The draft proposes a “Manhattan Project” for military AI and aims to slash burdensome regulations. The framework creates industry-led agencies to evaluate AI models and focuses on securing systems from foreign adversaries. Palantir is an obvious winner here due to their existing deep involvement in AI national security.
This approach markedly differs from President Biden’s, which emphasizes safety testing. The GOP platform now includes repealing Biden’s AI order, aligning with tech investors who argue it stifles innovation. This shift comes as Silicon Valley sees a political realignment, with some former Obama supporters now backing Trump. Key figures like Elon Musk and Bill Ackman have endorsed Trump, signaling potentially closer ties between a second Trump administration and the tech sector.
I have heard but not yet confirmed that the parliament of the German state of Bavaria (the largest state in Germany) has approved changes to the Police Tasks Act. Bavaria has been piloting Palantir’s software in their police department since March 2023, but now officially has approval to use it legally. Thomas Petri, the Bavarian data protection officer, is not a fan of Palantir and part of the reason why they couldn’t get legal approval for years. In May 2021, he called the use of Palantir “highly problematic.” Bavaria will pay €5.4 million and the annual cost of operating the system is €500,000.
This is a bigger deal than the modest contract size. Palantir has been trying to grow their international government business for years, but kept hitting roadblocks like the German Government that felt they could build their own version of Palantir. Palantir just wants to get deeper into the country and provide value so they can start expanding to other sectors and become a greater part of the software used in Germany. The real monetization will come as they expand. With the state of Bavaria officially saying that Palantir has the legal authority to be used, Germany might be coming to the conclusion that they won’t be able to build their own Palantir. Theyll just have to end up using the real thing. PLTR is a Buy under $22 for a $100+ target.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $60.00) was downgraded by William Blair from Outperform/Buy to Market Perform/Neutral, saying the company faces more challenges than potential for gains. They cited challenges associated with improving transaction margin, monetizing Venmo, their mobile payment service, and “apparent unwillingness to make an incremental-growth acquisition.”
The big one here is improving the transaction margin, the #1 priority of the new management team. If they can do it, as I believe, Blair is going to be surprised by the size of the gains.
At the start of July, Susquehanna analysts upgraded PayPal stock from Neutral to Positive, increased their forecast for earnings, and maintained a target price of $71. PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $33.30) is acquiring Graphcore, a UK-based artificial intelligence company. Graphcore, founded in 2016, builds intelligence processing units (IPUs), a technology that could shape the future of AI. After his wildly successful acquisition of ARM Holdings, CEO Masayoshi Son must have a warm feeling for undervalued UK tech companies.
SoftBank’s reported acquisition cost of around $600 million is below the $700 million Graphcore raised in venture capital. Graphcore now has the stability to continue developing its pipeline of AI technologies without the constant need for capital.
The purchase of Graphcore was funded by SoftBank Group itself, not Son’s Vision Fund. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $16.05) has Wall Street target prices are all over the place:
Click for larger graphic h/t @MichelNantel
ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $5.26) was downgraded from Overweight to Equal-Weight by Morgan Stanley, which lowered its target price to $6 – just as the space business is taking off like a…umm…rocket. More objects were launched into space in the past two years than all of prior history. Talk about vertical takeoff:
Click for larger graphic h/t @Hedge_Your_Risk
RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Velo3D (VLD – $2.89) got a Continued Listing Notice from the New York Stock Exchange that it is not in compliance because its average total market capitalization over a consecutive 30 trading-day period was less than $50 million and, at the same time, its stockholders’ equity was less than $50 million. As of July 5, 2024, the company’s 30 trading-day average market capitalization was approximately $36.6 million and its last reported stockholders’ deficit, as of March 31, 2024, was approximately ($45.5) million.
These deficiencies cannot be cured by a reverse split – one of many reasons they shouldn’t have done the split. They have 45 days to submit a plan to the NYSE advising it of the definitive actions they plan to take to regain compliance with the Continued Listing Standards. I can’t think of a credible plan to cure the stockholder’s equity shortfall. Velo3D needs to delist and execute on their recovery program to turn their operations around, and then relist on Nasdaq or, better yet, the Toronto Exchange. VLD is a Buy up to $10 for my $100 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
Biotech MegaShift
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.36) terminated their distribution agreement with CSL Vifor to take Vafseo into Fresenius Kidney Care dialysis centers and specific other third-party dialysis organizations in the US. Akebia will do it themselves but has agreed to pay CSL Vifor quarterly tiered royalty payments ranging from a high single-digit percentage on annual net sales up to $450 million to a mid-single digit percentage on annual net sales above $450 million. Akebia has the opportunity to buy down the royalty agreement beginning on July 1, 2027 with a one-time payment to CSL Vifor, which would decrease the royalty payments to a mid-single digit percentage of Akebia’s annual net sales of Vafseo up to $450 million and eliminate the royalty payment on annual net sales above $450 million.
Akebia set a wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) of $1,278 for a 30-day supply at the minimum starting dose, or approximately $15,500 per year. The entire dialysis business will be a contracted business, offering an off-invoice discount as well as volume tier discounts off this WAC price. They said the potential label expansion into non-dialysis patients was an important factor in determining the WAC pricing for Vafseo, so this reflects the value of Vafseo in both the dialysis and, if approved, non-dialysis populations. Because contracting effectively with dialysis organizations is critical to a successful launch and to simplify the operational management of the product, they terminated Vifor’s license.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE), they said they have made significant progress in contract discussions with dialysis organizations for both Auryxia and Vafseo and expect to have contracts in place with dialysis providers treating the vast majority of eligible Vafseo patients before January 2025 .
They submitted the TDAPA application in June and expects to have Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System (HCPCS) codes assigned in October 2024 and full TDAPA designation by January 1, 2025.
CEO John Butler gave a great presentation at the H. C. Wainwright Kidney Conference (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE). They are going to start by focusing on the over 80,000 patients on home dialysis and over 150,000 patients on higher IV ESA doses. The total dialysis market is around $1 billion. They want to become the standard of care during the two-year TDAPA period and expect to get approval in 2025 to expand to non-dialysis.
There are three things they feel they need to do before making Vafseo available after TDAPA approval.
Click for larger graphic
First is to drive demand from doctors. They need to negotiate contracts with providers – clinics – but you can have the best contract in the world and if doctors don’t prescribe it, you lose.
Second is to have those contracts in place so doctors can easily prescribe it.
Third is the medical leg of the stool. They have to continue to invest in the product to demonstrate additional benefits for patients. Doctors can avoid the big swings in hemoglobin levels caused by IV ESAs with a once-a-day oral drug that shows kidneys functioning in a normal manner. Fewer excursions above the normal hemoglobin range mean fewer dose adjustments and better patient management, improving patient safety and making doctors’ lives easier.
Click for larger graphic
Because Auryxia is entering the dialysis bundle on January 1, providers have to contract with Akebia. That gives their sales force entree to also contract for Vafseo.
Click for larger graphic
Contracts for dialysis providers include volume-based rebates. These are set so (1) Akebia makes more money as volume rises; AND, (2) by the end of the TDAPA period the price of Vafseo is in line with current anemia management drugs at $2,500 per patient per year, so it remains the standard of care. Providers won’t embrace a TDAPA drug unless they know they can use it in the bundle after TDAPA expires. Brilliant.
Click for larger graphic
Once Vafseo is in the bundle the whole 500,000 patient universe becomes available – a $1.25 billion TAM (total available market). The next steps in the launch timeline are the HCPCS code assignment in October (required for doctors to order), FDA feedback on expanding to non-dialysis (approved for three years in Japan) around year-end, and TDAPA designation in early January.
Click for larger graphic
Since they received the Complete Response Letter two years ago, they dramatically reduced operating expenses and protected their cash position:
Click for larger graphic
Buy AKBA up to $2 for the vadadustat launches in the EU, UK, and (after TDAPA approval in December) the US.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat doesn’t sell in the US.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next approval: TDAPA January
Probable time of next financing: Never
I recommended Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.27) in Boomberg as the most appropriate low risk/high reward development-stage biotech (and the only one in Boomberg). CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2026
Probable time of next financing: Late 2025
Inovio (INO – $10.38) said INO-3107 has been designated an innovative medicine as part of the UK’s Innovative Licensing and Access Pathway (ILAP). The designation, called an Innovation Passport, was granted by the ILAP Steering Group to INO-3107 for the treatment of patients with recurrent respiratory papillomatosis. It offers enhanced access to regulators and development tools that could accelerate the timeline for achieving UK regulatory approval of INO-3107.
The Innovation Passport is the entry point to the ILAP, which aims to accelerate time-to-market and facilitate patient access to medicines in the UK. It provides a single, streamlined roadmap for regulatory approval and development milestones. Recipients of the Innovation Passport are granted access to a range of development tools to support the design, development, and approvals process in the UK, as well as opportunities for enhanced regulatory and other stakeholder input. Specific benefits of ILAP include the potential for a 150-day accelerated Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) assessment, rolling review, and a continuous benefit/risk assessment. INO is a Buy under $14 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: Mid-2025
Probable time of next financing: After FDA approval in 2025
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($2,446.90) jumped to a new all-time high after the assassination attempt, partly as a chaos hedge, partly because traders expect a September Fed rate cut, and partly because the markets expect a weaker dollar if President Trump is reelected. The fractal dimension managed to show a bit more consolidation thanks to this week’s hammer candle, at least so far, and is essentially fully consolidated. This couldn’t be a better set-up for another big leg up.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $63,576.26) extended its recent recovery from $53,500 on July 5 as the prospect of a Trump presidency bringing a friendlier regulatory environment largely offset concerns over selling pressure from the Mt. Gox creditors. Speculation over spot exchange-traded funds tracking ethereum, which start trading next Tuesday, also aided sentiment towards crypto.
A crypto address recognized for making substantial trading profits made a fresh bitcoin investment this week. The addresses labeled “3QYQ8YthYTaAFJmzUqiis7iRSWG7e5buBN” bought 245 bitcoin worth nearly $16 million on Tuesday, taking their total to 248 coins, according to data source Arkham Intelligence and blockchain sleuth Lookonchain.
The transaction is noteworthy given the address’ history of making profitable bets. In the past 12 months, it has made $30 million by bargain-hunting bitcoin at low prices and selling closer to trend tops. During the five months to mid-December 2023, the address bought 718 coins at an average price of $29,385 and liquidated at $41,953, pocketing a profit of $9 million, Lookonchain detailed on Twitter (X). The address rode the uptrend from February to June, pocketing $21.2 million in profit.
We may be on the verge of another bitcoin “banana zone,” when prices only go up:
Click for larger graphic h/t @TraderThales
Click for larger graphic
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $36.22) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Ethereum (ETH-USD on Yahoo – $3,408.82) spot exchange-traded funds start trading on July 23. It looks like management fees will settle at 0.25%. Where bitcoin is a long-term hedge against inflation, ethereum is closer to a tech investment. According to Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research, the etherum blockchain’s main premise is “to remove the intermediary and allow for 24/7 uptime in financial services, such as trading and lending, in addition to tokenization, digital collectibles, and digital identity.” ETH-USD is a Buy.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin extensions outperform Ethereum.
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE- $28.76) will charge a higher management fee, so I’ll probably recommend a switch to the forthcoming iShares Ethereum Trust. I only expect ethereum exchange-traded funds to attract about $10 billion over the next several months – a fraction of the bitcoin ETF inflows, but still a lot of money.
ETHE is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk:Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $82.41
Oil prices edged higher after crude inventories fell by 4.4 million barrels in the week – the third drop in a row. The Energy Information Administration returned 8.167 million of the 10 million “missing“ barrels this week from their flawed model. 1.833 million bbls more to go.
We saw a large drop in implied oil demand this week, but the four-week average for now remains resilient. Hurricane Beryl played a big role this week, so we will need to wait for more data to see whether demand is strong or transitory.
Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research
On the supply side, OPEC+ is squeezing the shorts.
Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research
And Russia isn’t playing around.
Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research
But lower OPEC+, Russia, or Saudi crude exports won’t meaningfully impact US onshore crude storage because Saudis have already dramatically lowered crude exports to the US since 2020. The incrementally lower crude exports won’t have any direct effect at all.
Instead, lower OPEC+ crude exports would lower onshore crude storage elsewhere, which would increase demand for US crude exports, and that lowers US crude storage. It’s all intertwined, so lower crude exports from OPEC+ will eventually hit US crude storage.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $no trades – June closed at $71.14) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $40.34) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
Vermilion Energy (VET – $11.06) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk:Oil prices fall.
EQT (EQT – $35.35) reports next Tuesday after the close, with a conference call Wednesday morning. Analysts expect revenues up 10.4% from last year to $1.1 billion in a wide range from $769 million to $1.17 billion. They are ready for a 20¢ loss compared to last year’s 17¢, also in a wide range from -6¢ to -41¢.
September quarter guidance estimates range from $1.25 billion to $1.49 billion, with an average of $1.37 billion, up 15.2% from the 2023 period. Earnings guidance averages 7¢, in a range from -18¢ to +46¢.
Obviously, no one knows what’s really going on. Did EQT opportunistically add rigs to capture market share? Somebody did.
At the end of May, with Henry Hub prices rapidly recovering back above $2.5/MMBtu (million British thermal units), natural gas producers were on pace to meaningfully increase Lower 48 gas production back to 102.5 to 103 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) by July. With natural gas storage already bloated, an increase in production naturally resulted in worries over a surplus in storage going into winter, which was bearish on prices.
Since May, Lower 48 gas production hit a high of 102.7 Bcf/d last week, and Henry Hub is once again testing $2/MMBtu. With natural gas prices approaching $2/MMBtu again, the pace of the recovery in Lower 48 gas production will slow in the coming months. It’s important to note that there won’t be any voluntary production shut-in at these prices, especially with winter so close.
Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research
So EQT has much to tell us. EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $45.92) reports next Tuesday morning. Wall Street is looking for sales up 4.6% from last year to $6.00 billion (range $5.86 billion to $6.20 billion) with earnings of 38¢ a share (range 24¢ to 52¢). Guidance expectations are enthusiastic – 28.6% revenue growth from the September 2023 quarter to $6.38 billion (range $5.9 billion to $6.86 billion) and 12.8% earnings growth to 44¢ (range 37¢ to 65¢). Remembering that they had no Indonesian export license in June, they could guide higher.
The stock will jump if the rumors are true that US officials are considering creating a strategic reserve of Copper Cathode in the US, potentially in response to the stockpiling of refined copper seen in China. This chart gets more bizarre by the week. China has complete economic incentives to export copper at current prices, but they aren’t doing it. Are they planning a devaluation? An overhaul of their electrical grid? A power grab on supply chains for EVs, solar panels, data centers, and the like?
Click for larger graphic h/t @AndreasSteno
Click for larger graphic h/t @AndreasSteno
FCX is a buy under $44 for a $65 target within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.
* * * * *
RIP Dave Loggins
* * * * *
China’s demographic decline is unprecedented.
Click for larger graphic h/t @kaoutharlbiati
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Your catching up with Vitaliy Katsenelson #1, #2, and #3 Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 7/18/24. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $44.99) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $73.51) – Buy under $80, target price $120
Palantir (PLTR – $28.64) – Buy under $22, target price $100+
PayPal (PYPL – $60.00) – Buy under $68, target price $136
SoftBank (SFTBY – $33.30) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $16.05) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $56.94) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $7.75) – Buy under $14; 3- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $20.24) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $11.68) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $5.26) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $2.89) – Buy under $10, target price $100
$20-for-$1 Biotech
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $3.06) – Buy under $6, target $30+
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.36) – Buy under $2, target $20
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.27) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Editas Medicines (EDIT – $5.30) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
Inovio (INO – $10.38) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
Medicenna (MDNAF – $1.37) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.09) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $21.23) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($30.04) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $29.64) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $33.91) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $22.93) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $34.75) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.34) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $6.16) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.44) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.84) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $45.39) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $63,576.26) – Buy
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $36.22) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,408.82) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $28.76) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $no trades – June closed at $71.14) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $40.34) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
Vermilion Energy (VET – $11.06) – Buy under $11; $24 target
EQT (EQT – $35.35) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $5.75) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $45.92) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Apple Computer (AAPL – $224.18) – Expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones
Meta (META – $475.85) – Expect to move back to Buy under $400
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Go to cash. Trump will tank the market. Enjoy MAGA.
Hopefully Common Sense will prevail and Trump won’t get elected.
based on the advice of Kid Rock and Hulk Hogan and based on Trump’s brilliant speech, I have decided I will vote for Trump
… unless I hear to the contrary from George Clooney.
Notice how trump wears the maxi-pad on his ear when at the convention but takes it off to golf? It it only an injury when he is off the golf course?
Check your sources. Golf picture circulating is not current. Old photo. Trump hasn’t golfed is getting shot
You appear to be correct.
Nonetheless, he could be the first president to have his ear pierced.
yuk yuk yuk
Harris has about as much chance of becoming president as I do . She has enormous high turnover in her staff. Of the original 27 she now has 5 left. All the rest have quit. I can’t believe Biden endorsed her. Biden sent her to the border to fix the mess he created. How did that turn out? And now the democrats want to hitch their wagon to her? Good luck with that. They will surely go down in flames now. They just guaranteed a DJT victory.
This contest has tightened up. Strap in or get strapped on.
She is a fool on any subject.
Point 2. Root causes? Dems don’t address root causes. Socialism is a poor economic and political system precisely because it doesn’t address root causes. Socialism promises benefits at the expense of killing the economy and social fabric with regulations that hamper business activity. Taxes go up, and the money that was once available to pay benefits dries up. All Immigrants (deserving and undeserving) come because of socialist tyranny in their home countries. If life were free and wonderful in their home countries, why would they come en masse? Dems want mass immigration because they seek new voters because their policies have failed US voters they have courted. Your language about diplomatic relationships is utter HORSESHIT.
Point 3. She’s says nothing intelligent. Trump will mop up the floor with her in a debate. She lost the Presidential nomination in 2020 to Biden, who was more intelligent then, but still an idiot his whole life.
Your other points are trivial.
Trump will mop up the floor with a seasoned prosecutor who will just hammer out his legal charges? Are you sure about that doc?
Trumpies have some kind of mind virus, immigrants CAN NOT VOTE!! Why can’t this break though with you people???
Also, Mexicans are coming up here to WORK! They take jobs that lazy americans won’t do. Why is that SO HARD for Trumpies to understand?
Go ahead and try to deport all immigrants. Say hello to a depression.
You deny the difference between legal immigrants like our ancestors who came to the US to work and contribute to the economy, and the current mass wave of illegal immigrants whose criminal histories are disproportionately high. The current wave of illegal immigrants is impossible to vet properly. That’s what the Dems want–new voters who are grateful for the handouts where even the current welfare recipients are being shut out for lack of money. The Dems in 3+ years have been a failure in standing up to international rogue country terrorists, ruining the quality of life in big cities. This is a more dangerous world now, even for you liberals.
Get real. How dare you praise the Dems who have ruined hardworking patriotic US citizens who do deserve the right to vote? These illegals should knock the hell out of your skull bones. If they kill your loved ones, maybe you will learn, but I doubt it.
Lawyers like Chlamydia H should have their brains bashed by illegals. CH is an idiot. To be a respected lawyer in the mind of a liberal means to distort real world facts and basic morality for the purposes of securing special privileges for constituents.
I apologize for my language in the next to last paragraph–“These legals should knock the hell out of your skull bones. If they kill your loved ones, maybe you will learn, but I doubt it.” Proper language should be–“maybe you will learn if you or loved ones face consequences from illegal criminals who haven’t been vetted.” Similarly, CH should personally face consequences if she continues the open border fiasco of Biden if she is elected. Even Obama had a better record of vetting undesirables and deporting them. Obama has not endorsed CH. He has more brains than she. Trump welcomes several debates with her. He is eager to handily vanquish her. Even with his mental slips as an elderly man, he has life business and international political experience to demolish her negative claims based on her little experience to back them up. He has street smarts savvy in dealing with rogues like Putin, Xi, Iranian crazies, N Korea rocket man. In a proper debate format, unlike the corrupt legal system, how does she stand a chance if he can keep powerful rogue dictators in check?
You have value as an individual who offers insights about investments, among other contributions. But all politicians in a socialist economy harm certain unfavored groups at the expense of the politically favored ones. The libertarians and Republicans try to create opportunity for all at the expense of nobody. None of them has a perfect 100% batting average for fairness. But the Dems’ objective is to engage in political favoritism resulting in a poor batting average for fairness. Trump called the families of victims of illegal criminals, and also the families of the few victims at his attempted assassination. Biden did neither.
The depression we are going to have is caused by the idiots in Washington who think that the road to prosperity is thru debt. AKA 32 TRILLION and counting. A lot of it from Obama and grandpa Joe . So much so that now even the FED is struggling to control inflation because we have mega payments of interest on that crazy debt level. Totally agree with EVERYTHING Doc said.
Hey Mr down vote. Look at the market after the assumption that the orange blob will be president. Straight down.
MM – could you advise the stock you wrote about as follows in your biotech newsletter teaser: “It takes a rare company to develop a successful HIF drug, get it approved, get TDAPA approval, and then launch in a way that (1) will create a new standard of care; and (2) will keep it as the standard after the TDAPA period expires. We own that company in Biotech Moonshots and it sells for less than $2 a share. I have a detailed writeup behind the paywall – this is an easy $40 stock in a few years, more than a $20-for-$1 return.”
Ok I see its AKBA: who else on this panel believes AKBA is a $40 stock in a few years? What about in one year given TDAPA comes in January?
MM – I see you moved AKBA to near term Top 5, what is your target stock price by end of year? Will it outperform SCYX by January?
Mm – appreciate reply
I think SCYX will move first after the announcement of the new manufacturer.
What price do you see AKBA by year end?
$2-$3
MM–on VLD, a small correction. On 3/31/24, stockholder equity was reported as $45 million. It is less than $50 million, but it is not a deficit, and shouldn’t be written as (45.5 million). Equity is certainly a positive number. If relisting occurs on the TSE, how would our NYSE shares be revalued? Same number of shares revalued in Canadian dollars?
Here’s a ray of hope, from my email yesterday. More Q2 sales than the market thinks? If not in Q2, reasonable guidance for later 2024 when the military orders actually occur?
Post from Linkedin–If you missed RAPID + TCT 2024, this recap from VoxelMatters covers most of the important news from the show, including the increase in hashtag
#Defense spending that Velo3D and others have seen.
As Velo3D CEO Brad Kreger said, “Defense has always been one of the segments that we service. But it is definitely something that emerged in 2024 as relatively transformative to the business. We’ve been in discussions with the Department of Defense branches of the military. The US government has put a very concerted focus on making additive manufacturing a part of its strategy. And we’ve been a direct beneficiary of them.”
In the press release, VLD said their shareholder’s equity was ($45.5) million. You are correct, it actually is positive, not negative. Baffling they would make such an important mistake and leave it uncorrected.
Listing on the TSE would not directly affect the US OTC stock price. It would trade for a higher number in C$ to reflect the exchange rate.
Wondering about a play on the Crowdstrike (CRWD) screwup on Friday. Shares dropped more than 10% Friday but were already in decline from a high of 390 a couple weeks ago to 342 on thursday, closing yesterday at 302 where it still has a PE of an astounding 667.
Will it drop further?
Any chance someone else will knock it out of its spot at the top of the foodchain?
The CIBR etf was actually up on the day (?)
Will CRWD fall further?
Will there be massive lawsuits?
What companies stand to benefit from the obvious negligence in vetting this update?
Elon announced hes dumping crowdstrike from all his businesses, stay away!!
Elon is a knee jerk moron who is probably lying. You don’t just get rid of your cybersecurity enterprise software in a day or 2. Elon has lost all credibility with his endless robo taxi predictions since 2017.
Cyber security stocks are very precarious. One hack and they will drop like stones.
Musk knows what he’s doing. Name one business person who is more savvy, although everyone makes mistakes. He probably has a backup plan for another cybersecurity firm. Of course, he won’t dump Crowdstrike until his backup firm is ready to go.
Hey Dictator, take a break from spewing hate and read up a little, this wasnt a hack, it was a careless mistake in upgrading code likely from a low level programmer. Elon hasnt lost any credibility from sensible and astute investors, TSLA will be one of the top performing stocks from now till 2030, it should be on MMs top 5 long term, wake up!!
Hey wait a minute. I was an early investor in Tesla back in 2018-2019 when it was supposed to go BK. I made a LOT of money on that stock but Elon is alienating his base. Trump has made it quite clear that he doesn’t like electric cars or alternative energy.
I still have a bit of TSLA but without robo-taxi, it’s just another car company. This week’s quarterly numbers are not going to be good.
Also, I was an enterprise software developer for over 30 years. Low level programmers are NOT ALLOWED to update world-wide software updates. Typically source code changes are approved by multiple senior level developers with intensive QA.
What about Tesla cutting deals with other auto manufacturers to add self-driving capability to their vehicles?? Tesla appears way ahead of everyone else in developing self-driving capability and collecting real world data. There’s over a billion vehicles on the planet. How many might Tesla charge their $100/month self-driving service fee?? Yet another income stream.
Musk cut his throat with his worship of Trump. Trump and the GOP are ANTI EV but Elon doesn’t give a shit as long as he saves his billions.
Note: Tesla just missed their numbers for the second quarter in a row and guided down for the rest of 2024.
I maintain a small amount of TSLA but it’s headed below 200 bucks.
No advocate of free markets is anti-choice. Dems are anti-choice in educational policies, multiple energy sources, etc. (Dems misrepresent Repub position on abortion choice. Abortion is an ethical choice under certain conditions, etc.) Dems mandate EV’s at about 50% market penetration by 2030, on its way to 100%. Trump is not a full free market advocate, but he recognizes that all energy techs for cars have a place. He is NOT anti-EV. It is only in the twisted anti-mind mandate attitude of the Dem to claim that the GOP is antiEV. The natural flow of life is gradual acceptance, more consistent with Trump policies. But Dems advocate wholesale destruction of the oil industry and subsidies for green energy as their methods to get EV dominance. Dems are opposed to letting people’s choices determine the long term outcome of which techs will become pre-eminent. Even my use of the words, “pre-eminent” or “dominant” is incorrect. It would be desirable to have numerous techs as options, with each well under 50%. Only a fool would say that any one tech has to be dominant, and a greater fool would say that he knows today WHICH one is clearly superior and therefore should be mandated.
My god are you that vapid? Sure, the dems misrepresent abortion rights?!? How about women who live in GA, ID, IA, KY, LA, MS, ND, OH, OK, SC, TN, or TX?
All of those states have 6 week abortion bans. Most women don’t even know they’re pregnant at 6 weeks. This issue is going to KILL your king.
Also, just to test your google skills. Google trump anti-EV speeches. It’s really easy. Easy enough for you I imagine.
This is soooo tiresome dealing with idiots. I’m checking out for a long while.
Speaking of someone who truly is vapid and doesn’t understand the proper morality of being allowed to make choices in a free market, you totally missed my point that Trump doesn’t support mandates for EV or anything. He got the covid vaccines approved quickly, but unlike Biden, doesn’t support shot mandates. He said so at the recent RNC. More interesting than whether Trump is for or against EV’s, is the issue of whether you are actually anti-gas powered cars (ICE). You love your Tesla, and that’s fine. If EV’s are truly superior to ICE cars in every conceivable way, it is also fine for you to enthusiastically RECOMMEND that everyone ditch their ICE’s. I like people with such passion. But do you personally believe that EV’s should be mandated on a specific timetable? Do you believe in sacrificial destruction of the oil and gas industry and ICE car manufacturers? Or do you think it is better to let drivers decide and make their own choices of EV, hybrid, ICE? If EV’s are that wonderful, the general public will choose EV’s which will become dominant. It is better to let people learn the truth on their own than to force it down their throat.
Google, Wikipedia and the like are highly censored tech demon tools of the left. They will chop up and misrepresent what Trump or other hated advocate of freedom really believes. There is no guaranteed truth from these media except for the weather reports and relatively straightforward, nonpolitical subjects. The facts are that the Dem party is anti-choice except for abortion, and the Rep and Libertarian parties support PRUDENT choice, such as up to 15 weeks. But they leave it up to each state to set policies of a total or prudent ban, or no ban at all. Dems allow abortion up to the minute before delivery. That’s murder, plain and simple. Do you support murder of this kind?
BTW, those states you mentioned that prohibit abortion after 6 weeks are all Repub strongholds. Apparently women there are smart enough to detect pregnancy early enough, so they can get abortions there. Trump will easily carry those states. He will lose crazy left coast states like NY, Calif anyway, regardless of his stance on abortion.
Before you check out, I’m curious about your answers to my questions.
I can’t wait until Delta Airlines and others sues Crowdstrike for billions of losses because of their snafu. Delta canceled 600 flights. Hundreds of people are stranded for days. Me included. I can’t get out of NY for 3 flipping days. Hotels are sold out. The few that have openings are killing you with inflated prices.
Seems like a TON of demand for travel in such a horrible economy as trump claims.
I hope Crowdstrike is flushed down the toilet. They deserve it. I was planning to pickup my friend at the airport at midnight tonite. Her flight was delayed, delayed, delayed of course, despite United claiming on their site that most problems have been fixed. BULLSHIT. She won’t arrive until 3 AM. She won’t get home until 4-5 AM. I don’t drive at those hours. We’ll see if she makes it by those times, without further delays.
Change Health is a middleman payment system for doctors’ offices. This past Jan or so, there was a software screwup. Our office switched to another system in March and is now getting payments from the new system. But Change Health is still not paying for those 2 months lost. Bureaucracy sucks, online systems suck, cybersecurity sucks. Any investment in AI/IT companies I consider socially irresponsible, almost as bad as sin stocks of companies that kill people (tobacco, fast food). The US economy did OK for generations, before over reliance on software and internet started. I bet young whippersnapper techies can’t fix a toilet or change tires or oil. They should be flushed down the toilet.
Well, that cat is out of the bag. We aren’t going back to paper ledgers and hand written airline schedules. The airlines love to blame software but in reality, their endless greed is gutting pilots, flight attendants and ground services.
Most likely, your friend’s delay was caused by a crew delay. This happens to me ALL the time.
The better airlines (not all) had manual backup. We are far too dependent on software that doesn’t function for myriad reasons. This keeps IT people employed, but it sabotages the functioning of most businesses. Data is lost. You would say, “do backup, etc.” That’s analogous to failing socialism which keeps saying, “let’s spend more money until we get it right.” NO, it is never done right.
And what was the cause of crew delay? The near universal failure of the system. But you don’t look at root causes.
What is the root cause of crew delay? Money. Come on man, you are living 50 years ago.
You don’t look at root causes correctly. Employees have been at it for years. But Crowdstrike jammed up the entire system. Crew delays were radically delayed the last few days.
Thanks for proving you have absolutely NO idea how enterprise software works. Stay in your lane.
CrowdStrike was hacked. Period.
Wrong. From https://www.crowdstrike.com/falcon-content-update-remediation-and-guidance-hub/
“On Friday, July 19, 2024 at 04:09 UTC, as part of regular operations, CrowdStrike released a content configuration update for the Windows sensor to gather telemetry on possible novel threat techniques.
“These updates are a regular part of the dynamic protection mechanisms of the Falcon platform. The problematic Rapid Response Content configuration update resulted in a Windows system crash.”
Yup, I don’t know how enterprise software works. But I know the harm experienced by airline passengers for many days. And I know the harm in over-reliance on billing software in medical offices. To date, our office has an unrecovered loss of perhaps $500,000 for a few months of IT disaster from the rogue Chance Health payment system. A few years ago, we lost a big contract with an insurer. Legal recourse was to no avail. That insurer refused to reveal why. That’s what you get from being controlled by AI and there is no person to speak to about such matters.
Right on. I am at the airport in NY right now. This crap happened two? Days ago and everything is still screwed up. One older woman was in line in front of me telling the agent she is stuck here at the airport and she can’t get a hotel room anywhere. My flight has been changed two times now and they still don’t know if it will get changed again. ETA is 3:00 am at Orlando. There are moms here with tiny babies who are long time away from their bedtimes. If all the updates are done by senior employees how in hell did this shit happen? What genius designed a system that can bring the whole world to a standstill with one stupid/ bad update?
Yes to the lawsuits, but CRWD is probably insured. I have no interest in the stock at these levels.
You know, I NEVER would have guessed I would Vote for a person with a PIERCED Ear!!
My understanding was he got nicked with a piece of plastic that flew up.
It must be nice to be the world’s richest man. You can be an anti-immigrant immigrant. The SEC’s enforcement actions hurt you less than a blow from a feather. And you can call the Democrats the party “of division and hate” and one week after an assassination attempt you can post a video of an Ozempic using DJT killing JB.
https://x.com/phsjr1/status/1814329661570097283?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1814735283125886989%7Ctwgr%5E9d94f616b6491eabe8063aca9dd4f904b1294ae3%7Ctwcon%5Es4_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rawstory.com%2Fr%2Fentryeditor%2F2668784343advanced
Absolutely disgusting pandering. However, if you scrape all the BS aside, Elon is simply in it to protect his billions. He doesn’t give a crap who is president as long as he isn’t taxed. Same for Peter Thiel and the other silicon valley billionaires.
Citizen United was one of the most destructive SC decisions EVER.
100% correct. Thiel is another anti-immigrant immigrant. Then we have DJT whose wife (wives) and in-laws are immigrants. And this is coming from a guy whose great great great ,,, grandfather got off the boat from Ireland in 1776, saw a poster saying Gen’l Washington was looking for people to fight the British, asked “Where do I sign?”, became one of General Washington’s bodyguards and agents and was rewarded with land grants which he used to peacefully work with the Natives and expand the territories where white people were welcome.
Pete Buttigieg explains Silicon Valley’s love for DJT and JD Vance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMzpAcdxBP0 with a GREAT zinger for Vance two minutes and 55 seconds in.
Chris, hate to interrupt the political discussion, but do you have any updates on the 2 stocks you introduced to us? I believe one was NGENF and I forgot the other one. Any other ones you like? Thanks
NervGen will soon announce that their Phase 2 trial in chronic SCI is fully enrolled. The trial will terminate 16 weeks later and results will be released a few weeks after that. So expect results to be released 5 months or less after they announce full enrollment. I anticipate share price to rise even more after they announce full enrollment and in the runup to results. I also anticipate that the announcement of good results will not lead to a single day explosion in share price, but to several days of rising prices as many would be buyers will have to open and fund new accounts to acquire shares (I know many people who wanted to buy NGENF but were unable to buy in their existing brokerage accounts). hich will Next will come an uplisting to NASDAQ will lead to greater availability, dilution and fresh funding, as well as an incentive for warrant holders to exercise. There have been rumors of people having great results in the trial and these cause jumps in the share price. Such leaks seem to come at unpredictable times.
If you think of the other name, I’ll give you my 2 cents on it.
Thanks for your update, but I am afraid it is based on rumors to an extent. The past stock price jumps were based on rumors. The last jump wasn’t as dramatic as the first, because it was merely a recycled marketing promotion of the first rumor. My guess is that your sources for any late good results are just generating rumors, although it is plausible that minor material news like full enrollment in chronic SCI is legitimate, even without a PR so far.
The recent news of appointment of Klompas to advance clinical trials may be positive or not. Maybe this implies that management knows something good. However, it could mean that without him, they are lost. Dr. Jerry Silver is a brilliant scientist and researcher, but he probably has little clinical trial experience.
Thanks for your continuing updates on NervGen, its been a winner! And a promising therapy it appears. Hopefully it works out both as an investment and as a life changing therapy.
I believe that was ACXP (Acurx) if memory serves.
Chris recommended both NGENF and ACXP.
ACXP and ACHV. I still like both but it is apparent that ACXP is having a tough time finding a partner for a Phase 3, so I have lightened up as I don’t see a catalyst in the near future and have put my money where I think it will grow faster for now. I plan to come back to ACXP in the future.
I still like ACHV and expect it to pay off before ACXP.
I believe there were 3. NGENF, BLGO and ACXP
thanks for the updates and any new ideas you might have.
Also, ACHV which is doing OK so far.
“I saw a political comment on New World Investor that totally changed my mind about who to vote for.” — No one, ever.
Funny you say that, after posting pro-Trump and various obscure political references for years.
100%. Maybe he forgot? Memory does tend to fade with age.
I’ll be glad to start the Politics post back up if you all want to rant there. I must be a bad pro-Trumper since I usually vote Libertarian and this time have two Kennedy signs in my yard, in hopes of developing an alternative to the Uniparty. (Also the Libertarian candidate is even worse than usual.)
I don’t think it was political to point out Biden’s dementia in 2020, any more than to say George Floyd died of a fentanyl overdose or Kamala Harris has an alcohol problem. I report what I see. If you see something different, fine.
No Murphy, what Opie was pointing out is that YOU slip in political bullshit into your “newsletter” from time to time.
You could put Micky Mouse signs in your yard but you know damn well that Oregon will be picking a dem.
You last line of horseshit is just more gaslighting. Maybe Floyd was on fentanyl but having a knee on his neck for nearly 10 minutes didn’t help. Chavin went to prison for that.
You don’t see signs of dementia in trump? What is with the hannibal lector shit and electric boats vs sharks and countlessly confusing names?
Harris has an alcohol problem? Where the hell did you read that?
You see … it’s YOU that incites the bullshit on this board. Stick to your horrible stock picking. If you had left off that last paragraph your point would have been made but you just couldn’t help yourself.
I leave it to each to scroll through the comments, see who incites the bullshit political rants, and check the timestamps.
Still waiting for the Kamala has a drinking problem link.
Oh while ya’ll are checking timestamps. Make sure you read the text of the author. Pay special attention to “your reading right wing wacko author” shit at the end.
In a way, the rise of Harris is a good thing. It takes away the excuse of dementia as a reason to dump Biden. Harris is young and without dementia. Now, voters will have to evaluate fundamentals like the records of Trump vs Biden/Harris or other Dem nominee. Many voters will understand the historic record of failures of socialism/tyranny and the contrast with quasi free market approaches. Why isn’t RFK, Jr the Dem nominee? He clearly has the best brains, knowledge and experience of any Dem (although for expediency he considers himself an independent), at least on important issues like environment and vaccine choice. But the Dems hate him nearly as much as they hate Trump. That shows that Dems want maximum govt control in just about all areas.
Your usual rant of socialism hysteria makes no sense. Bernie is a Euro style socialist. Biden and Harris are pretty low on the socialism scale. Germany, Sweden, etc are socialist but democratic. There isn’t tyranny in northern Europe, or here unless Trump regains power. Trump/Vance are not free market advocates, they propose high tariffs, duh. Nor is Biden or Harris promising to be a dictator on day one like your candidate Tramp. (And The Don will remain dictator as long as he and his mafia gang can pull it off with your help.) Dictator Tramp is the only President in our nation’s history to refuse to concede an election he lost and join with others to work together to govern. ALL of the dozens of court cases claiming election fraud LOST due to lack of actual evidence. 100%. And Trump is the only traitor to take Top Secret SCI documents and leave them in a bathroom for our enemies to obtain. Why??? And the only convicted felon running for national office in November. Not to mention facing other criminal charges in the near future. And an admitted sexual predator who brags about it. He’s a brilliant con man who crafts hateful stories for his own benefit, not yours.
This guy is a hopeless, lost case. He loves trump with all his heart and would gladly have him as a king.
Forget about this lunatic. I wonder if he is still wearing mylar pajamas to bed to ward off wifi?
There was a character in Better call Saul ( Saul’s brother) who was convinced that electricity was killing him. He would light his house with kerosine lamps which ended up burning his house down.
Instead of your name calling, answer my questions in my post about your anti-EV hysteria of Trump. You won’t answer those questions, because my logic is checkmate against you.
You don’t understand that socialism starts mild, and creeps toward progressively more govt control. Why? The first beneficiaries are noticed by others not getting theirs. More and more people demand benefits. The system gets bankrupt in a snowball effect. The original intent was to provide benefits for the truly disabled population, a relatively small number, fortunately. Nowadays, most people scheme to get their benefits, and there is legitimate concern that social security will be bankrupt in a few years. SS will go on, but at a progressively watered down level. Already, most financial advisors tell everyone to do prudent investing, because SS will not pay most of your retirement living expenses. It has reached that point already.
Bernie Sanders is an outright commie who has praised the Soviet Union. Most of your verbiage is outright left wing misinformation, and displays a lack of understanding of reasons for the historic inferior economic record of socialism vs free market capitalism. Poverty becomes a problem for more and more people. They can’t find work easily, and naturally resort to crime. Govt steps in to dole out “freebies” to stop the violence. But this perpetuates the problem instead of solving it. Tyranny is born, eventually. Most immigrants are desperate to escape the tyranny of their mother socialist countries. The big wave of illegal immigrants were thrown out of their original countries. They come to the US, creating violence.
If you still don’t understand this reasoning or want to willfully deny it, I would respect you if you choose to go to the supposed wonderful life in the socialist countries you admire. The US Constitution was founded on free market capitalism, escaping the tyranny of the socialist British. All US citizens should be grateful they are here, and honor the freedoms we once had but which are being chopped away by socialist govt officials who violate the constitution and who get voted in by ignorant people who don’t understand economic principles and how and why this country came to be in existence.
Your bad dream vision of socialism didn’t happen in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Germany, and other European democratic socialist countries. Explain why your claims failed in Europe and Britain. If you think socialism is so bad, how come you seem to think US Social Security is okay and needs saving? Your claims are untrue.
I have lived in Germany but they won’t let me stay long-term once I wasn’t employed by Uncle Sam to be there. Paris is my favorite city. Violent crime is worse in NYC vs. socialist Paris. Contradicts your “socialism leads to crime” hypothesis.
Telling people “go live somewhere else” seems common amongst rightwing autocrats who think they are entitled to live here and anyone disagreeing with them should go elsewhere. What makes you so almighty special? Maybe you should consider going somewhere else yourself? After all, we have Social Security, and programs to feed the poor, socialistic in nature. Offhand I can’t think of any country that doesn’t want to care for their poor, elderly, disabled, or their retired workers. But they must be great in your mind, since they reject socialist tendencies.
The culture of Europe is very different from the US. The average education level is higher in EU. Obesity incidence is lower, in part because of a more active lifestyle. Most common diseases like diabetes, high cholesterol, HBP can be controlled nicely by proper diet and exercise. Per capita use of drugs is much higher in the US. Big pharma deserves much blame by encouraging universal drug use and telling people they don’t need to take personal responsibility for their health. Despite the profit motive feature of capitalist BP, their key to success rests on pushing drugs rather than encouraging individual responsibility. They gang up with socialist politicians to encourage universal health insurance for the purpose of universal drug use. As a result of less individual responsibility, the health of US people is worse than EU. Adding up the huge foreign aid, the data may show that the tax rates and govt spending are now higher for the US than in EU. So the US may already be more socialist than the EU.
The basic morality of free market capitalism is individual responsibility and freedom to act in furtherance of that. The basic morality of socialism is to scheme to get all levels of govt to take care of individuals when they should be taking caring of themselves without taking money from others. The handicapped and disabled are much less able to take care of themselves, so they are the only deserving people that should be taken care of with social programs. That amounts to about 10% of the population. Religious practices call for about 10% voluntary charity for this purpose, a good thing. But the other 90%, the physically and mentally able are best treated with respect for their individual responsibility, and must do so, without using govt policy to infringe on the rights of others who shouldn’t be forced to pay for strangers. It is ethically proper for an individual to choose to voluntarily give to another, but only on his/her terms. The original purpose of social programs was to take care of the roughly 10% who need it, but the crime of socialism is that nearly 100% of the population accepts the principle that someone else should pay for them, rather than themselves. They are forced to pay on govt terms, not their own terms. There is a direct correlation between economic growth and marginal tax rates. The rapid growth of Asian Tiger countries in the 1980’s was based on low tax rates akin to the religious standard, with low regulations promoting economic growth.
Social Security is a case of universal socialism which will soon go bankrupt or have benefits drastically cut in order for the program to survive. In all cases, workers are forced to pay into it, and it is proper for them to get the benefits which are merely payback. It is a financial contract, similar to a long term T bond. The T bond holder expects to be paid back at maturity with a return commensurate with the interest rate. But the SS account is raided by the need to fund other social programs whose total addressable market is the whole population. This is financially unsound, and is the main cause of why the SS program will in essence self destruct soon. For the able worker, he would be better off without SS. He would prudently invest the money now deducted for SS, into conservative stocks, T bonds, blue chip corporate bonds, even CD’s. Better macroeconomic growth from lower taxes would increase individual income and savings. A portion of these savings would be available for voluntary charity the individual believes in. Social programs for the minority of disabled people would actually be better funded this way.
Beyond economic analysis, morality is what is really important. I support the right of all individuals to make their own choices, and I do not interfere in their affairs. Even people I hate deserve their privacy and freedom. But socialism forces people to take care of those they despise. Mandates violate free choice of individuals. I have no objections to the proper rights of people I strongly disagree with. They have the right to disagree with me, as long as they don’t interfere with my individual right to live the way I want and provided I don’t interfere with them. But socialism which naturally grows to involve the whole population, leads to progressively more interference with individual rights.
Under free market capitalism, I may not LOVE my neighbor, but I will respect and as a minimum, tolerate him. But if he is a socialist, he will support policies that interfere with me. Too bad, the naive socialist doesn’t realize that the socialist politicians are interfering with him. Who is the real autocrat? Not me, the supporter of individual rights. It is the socialist voter who clamors for mandates and govt control of everyone, except of course for the well connected political elite, who retain individual rights for themselves but not the population they control.
Dictator,
Occasionally on his show, Jimmy Kimmel has joke videos called “Drunk Donald Trump” that shows Trump speaking, but with the video played at half speed. He appears very drunk due to the slowed pace of the video. Cons have decided to do the same with Kamala??
A better comment would be: “I saw a biotech stock on Net Worth Incinerator hyped by the author and it crashed 90%” – MANY NWI investors.
Michael, there was mention a few weeks back of keeping an eye on FCX for potential exit. It has fallen pretty steadily since then. What are your thoughts at this point?
The quarter was fine! Copper prices are lower than I expected due to weakness in China, but that will pass soon. And there’s still little supply coming on.
any hope atleast this may help us get back some money from the many that we lost :
SCYNEXIS to Receive $10 Million Milestone Payment from GSK Triggered by Delivery of Completed FURI, CARES and NATURE Clinical Study ReportsScynexis
Tue, Jul 23, 2024, 7:00 AM EDT4 min read
Anybody that can read a chart can see that copper topped in May and is in steady decline. Murphy almost never calls a sell. He’ll let stocks drop 90% then calls them holds.
Be careful.
Thanks. Both of you.
7/23/24 Copper closed at $4.1535
The latest rumor is the FED may cut rates this week. The former NY FED head publicly said we need to cut rates NOW. China can’t get to their 5 percent goal for economic growth. The global economy is faltering as well as the US. Jobs are falling and US housing/building is struggling because of high interest rates. Etc . Etc.
There is a mandatory flight blackout over Delaware except for law enforcement, fire, and the VP.
Rehoboth Beach when Biden’s in residence? Similar to those over Mar-a-Lago.
New World Investor for 7.25.24 is posted. SWAP: Sell Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and Buy iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA).