Dear New World Investor:

The US Treasury began buying back long-term bonds in 2024. They capped each buyback at $2 billion – much too small to affect long-term yields in a $30 trillion Treasury market. So why did they do it? Because their goal wasn’t to lift bond prices, it was to buy older bonds that are harder to trade, freeing dealers to keep more bonds moving through the market. Treasury buybacks replace older debt with cash raised through the government’s broader financing operations. They do not expand the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet or directly inject newly created reserves into banks.

When you understand that, you can understand why Wednesday’s announcement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that he is raising the buyback cap to $4 billion is a nothingburger. Yes, the dollar weakened and bitcoin shortsellers lost $3 billion as cryptocurrencies soared. Yields fell as the long bond rallied. The 30-year Treasury yield fell below 5.20% after reaching 5.337%, its highest level since 2007.

Much fuss was made about the timing. Bessent said the raised buyback is effective September 9, well before the next scheduled update on November 4. But dealers routinely offered ten times as many old bonds as the $2 billion cap, and one look at the chart below will tell you why Bessent moved now.

Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance

Back in April, dealers offered as much as 18x the cap to get liquidity. That’s recently fallen to a nearly normal 11x, and Bessent is just taking advantage of the normalization. As you know, I am no fan of the US dollar due to the inability of either party to balance the budget and the craven weakness of the Fed in monetizing the deficits. At some point, something really bad is going to happen to the dollar – but this is not it.

The July Consumer Price Index was another nothingburger – headline up only 3.4% year-over-year (3.5% in June) and 0.1% month-over-month (minus 0.4% in June). Energy prices rose over the course of July after the ceasefire between the US and Iran fell apart and oil prices moved higher, but prices at the pump fell 2.9% from May to June. Broader energy prices declined 1.5%, and you can be sure that will slingshot back in the August 12 number.

Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance

Core inflation was up 2.5% from a year ago, and 0.2% from June. I doubt the Fed will make any changes at its September 16 meeting.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 0.9% over the last two weeks, although it set a new intraday record above 7.800 at 7,816.70 and a new closing record at 7,798.99 (so close!). The Index is up 10.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.1% in spite of Nvidia’s coming earnings report next week. It is up 12.2% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 5.7%. booking its second two-week gain in a row. It is up 34.0% year-to-date…take that, AI. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 0.3% but is still up 20.6% in 2026.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
BTC-USD Bitcoin – rebound from sell-off
ETH-USD Ethereum – rebound from sell-off
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for the September quarter has already slipped to +4.0%, still almost double the Blue Chip economists. The difficult number to forecast is semiconductor imports for the AI infrastructure buildout, which count as a deduction from Gross Domestic Product.

Click for larger graphic

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Tuesday, August 25
Short Interest – After the close

Wednesday, August 26
June quarter GDP – 8:30am – Second estimate – expect a small increase
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index – 8:30ampm – The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator
NVDA – Nvidia – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Thursday, August 27
ON – Onsemi – 11:55am – Deutsche Bank Technology Conference
PD – PagerDuty – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Tuesday, September 1
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) – 10:00am

Wednesday, September 2
CMPS – Compass Pathways – Unspec. – Bradykinin Symposium 2026, September 2-3, Berlin

Friday, September 4
August payrolls – 8:30am – The monthly follies, when we all pretend the estimate is accurate even though prior months are substantially revised

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Meta Platforms (META – $545.40) CEO Mark Zuckerberg wrote The Path to a Positive AI Future, laying out his view of what AI can really do and how Meta will use it. I think he really gets it, which is one reason I believe META is a long-term winner.

VP of Data Centers Rachel Peterson did an interesting interview on how Meta builds the infrastructure that powers Facebook, Instagram, Meta AI, and more. They discuss why Meta designs and operates its own custom data centers instead of relying on third-party infrastructure, how the company is preparing for the future of AI, and the engineering challenges involved in building some of the world’s largest computing facilities.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Big Tech’s AI spending is $3 trillion higher than it seems because their massive spending commitments for data center leases and GPUs aren’t shown on their balance sheets. This is a huge financial vulnerability that investors don’t see…yet. They will.

Click for larger graphic h/t The Wall Street Journal

META is a Buy under $705 for a long-term hold.

Nvidia (NVDA – $216.80) reports earnings next Wednesday after the close. Consensus expectations are for revenues to be up 96.69% to $91.94 billion, with earnings of $2.08 per share. As usual, they’ll probably beat both numbers.

CEO Jensen Huang seems determined to make Nvidia not only the supplier of the key silicon and systems required for the AI revolution, but also the banker funding it by guaranteeing data center investments will be profitable.

NVDA is a Buy for a $225 first target.

Onsemi (ON – $75.26) presented at the KeyBanc Technology Leadership Forum (WEBCAST HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Hassane El-Khoury basically repeated the story from their August 3 June quarter earnings call: their traditional markets have bottomed and started back up, while data center products are growing rapidly. Their September 16 Analyst Day is going to be lit ON is a Buy under $60 for a $130 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $176.11) won another no-bid award from the Pentagon for $243.9 million through next March. The Department of War is a classic example of needing what CEO Alex Karp calls AI Sovereignty – the organization owns everything, including their data, their insights, their telemetry, and the training and ownership of their models.

Palantir held their first Sovereignty Bootcamp on July 27, and it sold out. Here are Alex’s opening remarks, centered on the theme: “Own your outcomes. Own your models. Own your destiny.”

They just announced their second Bootcamp in 30 days with nearly 100 new organizations attending. Like the AIP convocations, the Sovereignty Bootcamps are a brilliant marketing channel. PLTR is a Buy under $160 for a $200 first target.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $61.97) and Venmo are now accepted for tuition payments through participating schools’ existing payment portals, thanks to new integrations with the three leading education payment platforms – Illumia, Nelnet Campus Commerce, and TouchNet, a global payments company. PYPL is a Buy under $50 for a triple in three years.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $3.20) had lots of news. On August 12, they reported June quarter revenues up 20.0% from last year to $9.0 million, their fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth, and above the $8.43 million consensus estimate. The pro forma 13¢ loss was 2¢ better than the 15¢ loss expected.

On the conference call, (WEBCAST HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Raj Talluri (who was about to resign, although we didn’t know it then) guided the September quarter to $9.0-$10.0 million in revenue, below the $10.25 million consensus, with a pro forma loss of 13¢-17¢, better than the 20¢ loss expected.

Raj said the June quarter showed momentum across all three of their primary target markets. Honor, their lead smartphone customer, confirmed that Enovix cells passed more than 1,000 cycles on the 0.2C discharge cycle test, with one final life cycle test underway to complete testing by the end of 2026. They’ll also begin sample deliveries in the December quarter to their second smartphone OEM.

In smart eyewear, they shipped 2,100 batteries to their Tier 1 lead customer as it began its production ramp. Enovix recorded their first smart eyewear product revenue and has delivery orders in hand for 19,000 packs in the current quarter, part of a 50,000 unit pack order that will be completed with the remaining balance in the December period.

The drones/defense/industrial pipeline of potential contract wins for products manufactured in South Korea increased 41% to approximately $183 million from the $130 million at the end of March, driven by drone opportunities. Enovix ordered additional production equipment for the MX1-B01, which will be operational by mid-2027 with initial commercial shipments and revenue expected to follow. Enovix believes demand for high-performance drone batteries that meet US government sourcing requirements under the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and the Trade Agreements Act (TAA) will materially exceed available supply through the end of this decade.

The next day, August 13, Raj suddenly resigned “to pursue another opportunity.” He’s becoming President and CEO of Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) as of September 1. Enovix appointed its Board Chairman and largest shareholder, TJ Rodgers, to the role of Executive Chairman, and CFO Ryan Benton as interim CEO, while it conducts a search for a new CEO.

I would not be surprised if they promote their recent Chief Operating Officer hire, Michael Vyvoda, to CEO. He already manages manufacturing, supply chain, quality, and customer delivery. When he was hired, his “immediate priorities” included increasing smart eyewear output and preparing manufacturing for smartphone field test builds.

But for now, TJ is running the show, with Vyvoda doing the day-to-day and Benton counting the beans. On a special webcast (WEBCAST HERE and SUMMARY HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), TJ said: “This is a CEO transition, not a strategy transition. Our customer programs and the teams responsible for their execution remain unchanged. The company also reaffirms its Q3’26 financial guidance and reiterates the news of the breakthrough technical progress on cycle life reported in our August 12 Q2’26 investor call.”

He also called out Benton, Vyvoda, and Chief Business Officer Samira Naraghi. TJ said: “My recent one-on-one meetings with executive staff members reminded me of the strength of the Enovix staff. Consider Interim CEO Ryan Benton. In his fifth year at the Silicon Valley semiconductor company, Exar, Ryan was promoted to CEO under circumstances similar to ours, and went on to make significant operational improvements that drove the stock price from $5 to $13, after which he ran the process to sell Exar with a capital gain for investors.

“Our COO, Michael Vyvoda, who ran product operations for multiple Apple programs for five years, will assume end-to-end ownership of manufacturing, supply chain, and equipment engineering in both our Malaysian and Korean manufacturing facilities. In addition, our 80-person R&D group will move under Vyvoda, a Berkeley PhD in Chemical Engineering, so he can drive faster R&D product transfers to manufacturing.

“And finally, Samira Naraghi, our Chief Business Officer, is a 22-year semiconductor and technology veteran of Qualcomm, Rambus, and IDT, who later led partnership efforts at Meta and go-to-market efforts at Amazon Web Services. She helped Enovix define and launch our first smartphone-grade battery, by using our customers to guide product definitions.”

Interim CEO Benton said: “I’ve worked on driving Enovix progress to plan since the day I joined, and I intend to keep this organization focused on our fundamental priorities: 1) driving our smartphone programs through final qualification, 2) scaling AI-1 smart eyewear battery production, and 3) building out the MX-1 platform for our rapidly growing defense and drone revenue, which was 65% of Q2’26 revenue. I’ve been in this situation before – and we will remain focused on execution.”

TJ concluded: “I hope the CEO transition does not distract investors from our Q2’26 event of the decade – that we have successfully demonstrated 1,000-cycle life on our AI-class smartphone batteries. When I joined the Enovix Board 14 years ago, our batteries struggled to achieve just 10 charging cycles, as I described in the Q1’26 shareholder letter. No other manufacturer of silicon-anode Li-ion smartphone batteries has achieved more than 32% silicon anode content, while we are now shipping 100% silicon anodes that work for 1,000 cycles.”

Enovix ended the quarter with $552.1 million in cash. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Fastly (FSLY – $22.66) is seeing accelerating AI-driven growth and has a durable business model beyond the current data center capex cycle. June quarter revenue surged 23% year-over-year, net revenue retention hit 117%, and their pro forma operating margin doubled to 15%, nearing Rule of 40 territory (revenue growth rate + operating margin over 40). They raised 2026 revenue guidance to $732–$746 million (18% growth), with gross margin expectations up to 65%, reflecting strong operating leverage. FSLY is a Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

PagerDuty (PD – $12.14) reports earnings next Thursday after the close. Wall Street expects revenues to be down slightly to $123.02 million, with earnings of 31¢ per share. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $11.20) reported June quarter revenues up a sterling 48.6% from last year to $5.5 million, but that was half a million below the $6.0 million Wall Street expected. New product revenue climbed nearly 60% year-over-year to $4.7 million, and the pro forma gross margin improved to 46.8% from 31.0% a year earlier.

But the pro forma loss of 6¢ a share was 2¢ worse than the 4¢ loss expected. So, of course, the computer bots, followed by the stop loss pick-off artists, knocked the stock down 6% the next day.

On the conference call, (WEBCAST HERE and PREPARED REMARKS HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Brian Faith said: “We see 2026 shaping up to be a very successful year for QuickLogic. As a result, we have narrowed our full-year growth outlook to a range of 70% to 80% [from 50% to 100%]. With this anticipated growth, we are modeling non-GAAP profitability and cash flow positive operations for the second half of 2026.”

But Brian also said that a delayed 7-figure customer contract extension was the sole reason June quarter revenue landed at the low end of guidance, and that contract has now been removed from the 2026 forecast. Also, a commercial ASIC design targeting Intel 18A was pushed to a potential 2027 opportunity. He guided the September quarter revenue to another $5.5 million, ±10%, with a pro forma loss of 5¢ a share.

The day after the earnings release, QUIK presented at the Canaccord Genuity Annual Growth Conference (WEBCAST HERE and SLIDES HERE). Brian pretty much repeated the earnings call.

QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.

ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $55.15) must be taking profits on SpaceX (SPCX) stock as the insider lockup progresses, because it is down to 8.72% of the fund. Because SpaceX operates a staggered unlock structure following its June 2026 public debut, shares are releasing in phased tranches rather than all at once:

First Main Unlock (August 6, 2026): Up to 911.5 million shares (~20% of eligible employee/early investor shares) unlocked two trading days after Q2 earnings.

Second Tranche (August 20, 2026): Up to 319 million additional shares (an additional ~7%) unlock.

Ongoing Staggered Releases: Additional ~7% blocks will continue unlocking periodically through September, October, and November.

Final Lockup Expiration: Full restriction lifts for remaining standard insider holdings by December 2026. Elon Musk’s major stake (~6.4 billion shares) remains restricted until June 2027.

The conditional performance-based tranche of 455.8 million shares did not unlock on August 6 because the stock stayed below the required $175.50 price threshold. ARKVX is a Buy for the Anthropic IPO.
Primary Risk: Cathie sells the stock before the IPOs.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like

AbCellera Biologics (ABCL- $11.56) announced positive top-line results from the Phase 2 portion of its Phase 1/2 clinical trial of ABCL635, a non-hormonal, long-acting, subcutaneous treatment for moderate-to-severe hot flashes due to menopause. The randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter Phase 2 portion of the ABCL635 study enrolled 92 postmenopausal women experiencing a mean of approximately 10 moderate or severe hot ashes per day. It showed statistically significant, best-in-class reductions in both frequency and severity of hot flashes at week 4 compared to placebo after a single dose, and significantly improved sleep and patient global impression of change (PGI-C).

Click for larger graphic

On a conference call (WEBCAST HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Carl Hansen said there was no liver safety signal observed and they will advance to Phase 3 trials.

Wall Street loved it and nearly doubled the stock, so AbCellera immediately did a $200 million sale of 7.4 million shares of stock and prefunded warrants at $9.75 a share through Jefferies, JPMorgan, Cantor, UBS Investment Bank, and BMO Capital Markets. It was oversubscribed. Buy ABCL up to $6 for a long-term hold to $30 or more.
Primary Risk: Partnered and owned drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Various Owned: Phase 2
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2027-2028
   Probable time of next financing: 2029-2030 or never

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $14.16) is working with the VA on a multi-site randomized controlled clinical trial of COMP360 psilocybin in the treatment of treatment-resistant depression (TRD) in veterans, including those with concurrent post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The lead site is the Birmingham VA Health Care System, in collaboration with four additional VA sites in Tuscaloosa, Portland, Seattle, and Philadelphia.

Management presented at the Canaccord Genuity Annual Growth Conference (WEBCAST HERE). CEO Kabir Nath hit all the key notes: Phase 3 success, file the BLA by the end of the year, two-month approval voucher, they are ready to launch. It’s become obvious that they can show their results are from the drug, not the psychological support. CMPS is a Buy under $10 for a very long-term hold to $200.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2027
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inovio (INO – $1.23) jumped after they reported a June quarter GAAP loss of 7¢ per share, less than 1/3 of the 22C loss analysts expected thanks to the usual meaningless fair value adjustment related to the warrant liabilities. On the conference call, (WEBCAST HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Jacqueline Shea said: “ We are on track for the October 30 target PDUFA date. The FDA has completed its late cycle review meeting and completed all of the scheduled pre-licensure inspections. We also were granted the previously requested informal clinical meeting, where we had the opportunity to present the totality of data supporting INO-3107’s safety and efficacy.”

Click for larger graphic

She reiterated the company’s positioning that “there remains significant unmet need” and that INO-3107 could “become established as the new standard of care.”

Chief Commercial Officer Steven Egge said Syneos Health will be Inovio’s contract sales organization to support commercialization in the US. Chief Medical Officer Michael Sumner said: “I am pleased to say that there was only one reported observation from the inspections, which we believe we have appropriately addressed. We believe we are now in the final stages of the regulatory review process and anticipate starting label negotiations in September. We would expect to receive seven years of Orphan Drug market exclusivity for -3107.”

They finished the quarter with $36.7 million in cash and raised another $18.3 million in July, enough to get them past the approval and launch of INO-3107. Each of those events should goose the stock. INO is a Buy for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: Mid-2026
   Probable time of next financing:After FDA approval in 2026

Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.28) announced June quarter results. They lost $5.1 million or 6¢ a share. Management said enrollment in the monotherapy and combination expansion cohorts of the ABILITY-1 trial of MDNA-11 remains on track for completion in the current quarter. They will present updated MDNA11 clinical results in an oral presentation at an upcoming medical conference. They also will engage the FDA in an end-of-Phase 1 meeting to explore the potential for expedited registrational development path.

The randomized Phase 1b NEO-CYT study continues to enroll patients with melanoma and is evaluating MDNA11 prior to surgery with preliminary clinical data expected in the December quarter. An updated corporate presentation is HERE.

The company ended the quarter with $5.7 million in cash and received an additional $1.3 million from the Australian R&D incentive program this quarter. They have also entered into a term sheet for a structured financing arrangement with Sorbie Bornholm and Sorbie Investments to receive up to $8.0 million. The proceeds, together with cash on hand, will carry them into the June 2027 quarter. Hold MDNAF to see structured financing terms.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2028
   Probable time of next financing: 2026

ScyNexis (SCYX – $5.15) reported June quarter GAAP earnings of 63¢ a share, compared to the consensus expectation for a $1.77 loss. You will not be surprised to learn the reported earnings include a $14.2 million gain on the fair value adjustment related to the warrant liabilities.

On June 30, they started a Phase 1 trial of SCY-770, a first-in-class, potent and direct AMPK activator for treatment of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease (ADPKD), a disease that affects about 140,000 patients in the US. SCY-770 has been granted Orphan Drug Designation by the FDA for the treatment of ADPKD and has been evaluated in several Phase 1 trials and one Phase 2a trial in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), with a well-characterized safety profile across more than 270 clinical trial participants. We will get topline data this quarter. Then, they’ll start a Phase 2 proof-of-concept study of SCY-770 in patients with ADPKD in the December quarter, with an early efficacy read-out expected in the second half of 2027.

They have completed dosing in the Phase 1 trial of the IV formulation of SCY-247, their second-generation antifungal, with topline data coming this quarter. September is going to be full of good news.

The company ended the quarter with $71.1 million in cash, giving them a runway into 2029. Hold SCYX through the the after-effects of the reverse split.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2028
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($4,579.70) jumped today after Treasury Secretary Bessent’s announcement. While this probably doesn’t mean any real change to Treasury operations, these sudden moves clean out some shorts and can make a real difference to a resumed uptrend.

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $21.11) has reinvented itself as a miner with a robust cash flow, a strong balance sheet, and significant long-term optionality supporting a discounted valuation. The company is leveraging record exploration budgets and a $750 million stock buyback program while maintaining net cash and pursuing shareholder returns. CDE is a Hold as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Royal Gold (RGLD – $252.36) did yet another virtual non-deal roadshow, hosted by Renmark Financial Communications (WEBCAST HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE. They send out Alistair Baker, SVP: Investor Relations and Business Development, to get across one message: Royal Gold is now as diversified as Franco Nevada and Wheaton Precious Metals, and therefore deserves the same valuation:

Click for larger graphic

RGLD is a Buy under $180.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $72,704.16) and ethereum surged today after Bessent’s announcement. Bitcoin’s next move probably will depend on whether falling yields and a weaker dollar persist after the initial market reaction, but…it doesn’t take much to flip crypto sentiment from bearish to bullish.

The SEC announced new regulation for crypto assets. The proposed rules provide a framework for crypto companies to raise capital. They define two registration requirement exemptions for crypto-related investment contracts. Issuers would still be required to make certain disclosures. Larger offerings would have to provide financial statements and meet ongoing reporting requirements. The rules also allow certain crypto assets to exit securities classification, and the related reporting requirements, after a project fulfills core managerial commitments. This would benefit mature crypto networks like bitcoin and ethereum.

Cathie Wood, who has predicted bitcoin will reach $1.5 million, said in January that the Trump Administration’s purchase of bitcoin for its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would be a catalyst for growth. At a White House gathering on Wednesday, President Trump urged Congress to pass a “fair version” of the CLARITY Act and said additional US bitcoin accumulation has been discussed. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the industry was ready to push the bill “across the finish line.”

Click for larger graphic

I don’t believe the government will actually buy any bitcoin, but they’ll probably stop selling any they get in their asset seizures. BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $41.20) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Ethereum (ETH-USD on Yahoo – $2,312.06) is a Buy.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin extensions outperform Ethereum.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $17.55) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $86.36

Oil powered up all week as it became obvious that the US doesn’t control the Strait of Hormuz and the IRGC is not out of firepower. At some point soon I expect President Trump to realize the only thing worse than going into the midterms with an active war against Iran is going into the midterms losing an active war against Iran. At that point, the generals take over from the pollsters, all hell breaks loose, oil shoots over $100, and we exit.

The September 2027 Crude Oil Futures (CLU7.NYM – $74.48) are a Buy under $75 for my lowered $100+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $52.69) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $12.84) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil and natural gas prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $13.90) said that its terbium (Tb) oxide has successfully passed all qualifications for use by one of the world’s largest manufacturers of rare earth permanent magnets outside China, putting Energy Fuels one step closer to commercially producing the full portfolio of “light” and “heavy” rare earth oxides for permanent magnets. CEO Ross Bhappu said: “Successful qualification of our terbium oxide by one of the largest Japanese rare earth permanent magnet manufacturers represents one of the strongest endorsements of our product quality and industry leading rare earth processing capabilities to supply the heavy rare earth materials needed for automobiles, advanced electronics, robotics, aerospace, defense systems, and other advanced technologies.”

Australian Strategic Materials Limited shareholders voted overwhelmingly in favor of their acquisition by UUUU. Upon closing of the pending acquisitions of Australian Strategic Materials and Vacuumschmelze (VAC), the company will become the leading vertically integrated “mine-to-rare earth permanent magnet” producer in the US and Europe, controlling the supply chain from mining to permanent magnets. At the same time, while their rare-earth strategy gains commercial clarity, their uranium operations have achieved scale, low costs, and are benefiting from attractive sales prices.

Despite the current valuation of 25x 2028 earnings, the real upside lies in 2029–2031 as Sumter and the White Mesa Mill Phase 2 scale, with significant earnings growth potential far above consensus expectations. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

* * * * *

RIP Frank Beard, ZZ Top Drummer

“The Man With No Beard”

“

and if you are interested in their ’33 Ford 3-window coupe:

* * * * *

The Forecast Is For A Super El Niño

Click for larger graphic h/t Statista

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Your reading the 2026 Stanford Emerging Technology Review Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 8/20/26. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $145.60) – Buy under $115, first target price $150
  Meta (META – $545.40) – Buy under $705 for a long-term hold
  Nvidia (NVDA – $216.80) – Buy under $225 for a long-term hold
  Onsemi (ON – $75.26) – Buy under $80, first target price $130
  Palantir (PLTR – $176.11) – Buy under $160 for $200 first target price
  PayPal (PYPL – $61.97) – Buy under $50, target price $150
  Snap (SNAP – $5.10) – Buy under $11, target price $17+

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $3.20) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $93.45) – Buy under $75; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $22.66) – Buy under $25 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
  PagerDuty (PD – $12.14) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $11.20) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $55.15) – Buy for Anthropic IPO

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $11.56) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA – $0.89) – Buy under $4, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $14.16) – Buy under $15, hold a long time for a 20x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $2.94) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $1.23) – Buy for a very long-term hold
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $52.42) – Buy under $30 for buyout at $40+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($67.54) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $83.20) – Buy under $50, target price $75
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $99.12) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $46.30) – Buy under $35, target price $60
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $97.46) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $1.55) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Royal Gold (RGLD – $252.36) – Buy under $180

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $72,704.16) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $41.20) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,312.06)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $17.55) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – September 2027 (CLU7.NYM – $74.48) – Buy under $75; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $52.69) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $12.84) – Buy under $11; $24+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $13.90) – Buy under $18; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $53.89) – Buy under $70; hold for much higher prices ($100+)

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $16.61) – Hold for $30 target
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.28) – Hold to see structured financing terms
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $5.15) – Hold through the after-effects of the reverse split
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $21.11) – Hold for higher gold prices
  Dakota Gold (DC – $6.17) – Hold for higher gold prices
  First Majestic Silver (AG – $21.19) – Hold for higher silver prices
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $71.22) – Hold for higher copper prices

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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