Dear New World Investor:

You deserve to know what’s going on. First, the Microsoft Windows update that crashed and bricked my new Lenovo desktop computer had some interesting twists. Every time I restarted it would randomly seize control. Then it disappeared my Google Chrome browser with all my passwords and history. After finding out that iDrive has been billing me for years but only rarely doing their advertised nightly backup, I signed up for a OneDrive backup plan and started it running.

The first estimate was it would take 5 ½ days over Starlink Wi-Fi, but that fluctuated as low as 24 hours. That didn’t matter, though, because OneDrive also crashed (guess who makes OneDrive). Using Claude.ai and a new one terabyte solid state disk (Samsung T7 – $275 at Best Buy) I was finally able to get a complete backup and do a clean reinstall of Windows. So far, it’s kinda working.

The second thing I want to cover is the new California Technology Stock Letter. I’ve decided to expand GwynRose LLC, the publisher of New World Investor, into a full-fledged newsletter publisher. I will continue to write New World Investor and the California Technology Stock Letter. I’m looking for someone to write an income/high yield letter and someone else to write a commodities letter. I’ll also be starting an interactive web site to calculate fractal market coefficients, although that one won’t need an editor.

Other newsletter companies offer both Lifetime Subscriptions to each newsletter and All-Access or Partner passes to everything. In general, the All-Access passes cost $5,000 to $30,000 (Stansberry). I want to assure Lifetime Subscribers to New World Investor that you will continue to get complete coverage of the current recommendations as well as new ideas. In fact, I am working on a new major recommendation for the next issue.

Meanwhile, if you want to get the California Technology Stock Letter recommendations, I hope the monster discounts I am offering Lifetime Subscribers (CLICK HERE) and all other New World Investor subscribers (CLICK HERE) during the launch period show you how much I value your subscription here. As I’ve said, two of the initial 12 recommendations in CTSL are Enovix and Compass Pathways. I write an Initiation of Coverage memo on each new recommendation in CTSL, and if you’d like to see the one for Compass Pathways, (CLICK HERE).

Fed Chairman Warsh’s comments at the Jackson Hole conference made it pretty clear that the Fed has little idea of what is going on or what’s next, so they are just reacting to whatever happens. I doubt they’ll raise interest rates next week, although a majority of Wall Street thinks they might.

According to FactSet, 88% of S&P 500 companies have reported June quarter results, with 86% beating on earnings and 76% beating on revenue. The blended earnings growth rate is 50.4%, which is the highest earnings growth rate reported by the Index since the June 2021 post-COVID quarter, when it reached 91.6%. It’s hard to have a bear market when reported earnings are growing rapidly at many companies.

Market Outlook

After all the sturm und drang the S&P 500 was flat over the last 2 ½ weeks through today. The Index is up 11.6% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% as Nvidia’s results convinced some folks that AI is not just the latest fad. It is up 13.7% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) fell 0.9%, but it is still up 32.8% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.1% but is still up 19.3% in 2026.

September often is a weak month, with downtrends bottoming in October. Nobody knows if this will be a typical September, but it seems unlikely given the strength in the economy and corporate earnings. The December quarter should be lit.

Top 5

Changes this week: Added CMPS to Near-Term

Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo launch
BTC-USD Bitcoin – rebound from sell-off
ETH-USD Ethereum – rebound from sell-off
EQT EQT – natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
CMPS Compass Pathways – February FDA approval of COMP360

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
UUUU Energy Focus – Domestic uranium supplier
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $150,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now expects 4.7% growth in the September quarter, about double consensus expectations.

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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Thursday, September 10
QUIK – QuickLogic – Unspec. – Lake Street Best Ideas Growth Conference
NVDA – Nvidia – 8:50am – Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference
RGLD – Royal Gold – 8:50am – Jefferies Global Industrials Conference
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 10:55am – Cantor Global Healthcare Conference
EDIT – Editas – 3:55pm – Cantor Global Healthcare Conference

Friday, September 11
Never Forget

INO – Inovio – 7:00am – H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference (Virtual)
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am
SCYX – ScyNexis – 9:45am – Cantor Global Healthcare Conference

Monday, September 14
DC – Dakota Gold – Through 9/16 – H. C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
SCYX – ScyNexis – Through 9/16 – 1on1s at the H. C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
AG – First Majestic – Through 9/16 – H. C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference

Tuesday, September 15
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 10:45am – Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
FSLY – Fastly – 11:30am – Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 3:30pm – H. C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference

Wednesday, September 16
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 11:30am – Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
MDNAF – Medicenna – 12:00pm – H. C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference
ON – Onsemi – 2:00pm – Investor Day
Fed Meeting – 2:00pm press release; 2:30pm press conference
SNAP – Snap – 7:00pm – Launch of Specs augmented reality glasses

Thursday, September 17
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 11:00am – Deutsche Bank Healthcare Summit fireside chat
RGLD – Royal Gold – 12:00am – Renmark Financial Communications Virtual Non-Deal Roadshow Series

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $145.65) said the FDA approved Bixlenvo (bictegravir 75 mg/lenacapavir 50 mg), the smallest once-daily single tablet regimen for the treatment of HIV in adults who are virologically suppressed. It is targeted at people with HIV who are on complex regimens. It pairs Gilead’s bictegravir, a global guideline-recommended integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) with a high barrier to resistance, with their lenacapavir, a first-in-class capsid inhibitor that has a novel mechanism of action with no cross-resistance to other antiretrovirals. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $115 for a first target of $150.

Meta Platforms (META – $653.69) settled their $1.4 trillion lawsuit by 52 attorneys general for about $18 billion – relative pocket change, and it gets paid in annual installments over 10 years. Not only that, but participating states will only receive about 70% (~$12.7 billion) of the allocated payment over the decade for sure. The remaining 30% (~$5.3 billion) will be released only after two specific conditions are met:

1. YouTube and TikTok implement a one-hour Daily Limit, Night Mode, and age assurance measures.
2. YouTube and TikTok each pay an amount matching the 30% figure, with half of the remaining funds tied to YouTube’s payment and half tied to TikTok’s.

Pretty clever of Zuck to shift the spotlight to his competition. Meta will book a legal expense of about $10 billion in the September quarter related to the agreement, and everyone will ignore it s a one-time event. For a transcript of the analyst call, CLICK HERE. META is a Buy under $705 for a long-term hold.

Nvidia (NVDA – $223.67) reported another stunning quarter – surprise, surprise. Revenue shot up 105.9% year-over-year to $96.22 billion, well ahead on the $92.16 billion estimate. You probably never again will see a $400 billion company growing 100% a year.

Pro forma earnings of $2.22 a share beat the $2.09 consensus estimate. The strength was in data centers, of course:

Click for larger graphic h/t Seeking Alpha

On the conference call (WEBCAST HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Jensen Huang said: “AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue, and demand is accelerating. This time last year, one lab alone was driving the buildout; today, we have a golden age of new AI labs and startups, multiple frontier labs scaling in parallel, a thriving open-model ecosystem and physical AI coming online — with strong momentum across the U.S. and around the world. The AI infrastructure buildout is at full steam. Vera Rubin, now in full production, was built to power exactly this moment.”

Jensen guided September quarter revenues to $108.0 billion, ±2%, above the $104.61 billion estimate, with a gross profit margin of 74%, ±½%. That forecast includes zero China data center revenue. He expects Vera Rubin to account for about 20% of data center revenue in the quarter. Growth in hyperscale is expected to reaccelerate in the December quarter and into 2027 as the supply of Vera Rubin grows over time.

Longer term, their preliminary expectation is for revenue in their January 2028 fiscal year – basically, 2027 – to grow approximately 70% year-over-year with a 72%-73% gross profit margin. They said this is a supply-constrained outlook, and they expect supply to remain a bottleneck at least through the end of 2027. Wall Street was expecting 44% revenue growth – surprise! If they weren’t supply-constrained, revenues would double next year.

Assuming roughly $396 billion in revenue for fiscal 2027, 70% growth would make fiscal 2028 revenue $673 billion, putting Nvidia ahead of Apple and Alphabet, and behind only Amazon.

There’s been some criticism of their inventory and days sales outstanding. Inventory increased to $32 billion as they prepared for the Vera Rubin launch – that’s just sensible. Days of sales outstanding increased from 45 to 60 days, reflecting extended payment terms for large purchases by certain investment-grade customers to be shipped over multiple quarters. As I’ve written before, I suspect half of their GPU shipments are sitting in warehouses, simply because it takes so long to build a datacenter. Offering extended terms to top quality customers is a way to share their pain without impacting the income statement.

Nvidia’s public and private equity holdings reached $95.6 billion at the end of July, up from less than $100 million in early 2020. Nvidia said its broader equity investments now total roughly $99 billion. The portfolio now includes stakes in Intel, CoreWeave, Coherent, Nokia, Synopsys, Nebius, and others.

Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance

Jensen is deliberately making Nvidia the center of the AI revolution by investing in other companies, acquiring Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, and guaranteeing financings. He sounded anything but worried about the scale of those investments when he said: “I think the only regret that I have is that I didn’t invest more and sooner. The risk is low.”

Nvidia is working with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure. Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said frontier AI labs have extraordinary demand for computing power, but are growing faster than what their balance sheets and credit profiles can support. Nvidia is stepping into the gap. Morgan Stanley has called the strategy “balance-sheet-as-a-service” — using Nvidia’s financial strength to help keep its customers spending.

With some AI cloud providers, Nvidia guarantees a minimum level of revenue, helping them secure financing. Then Nvidia gets a cut if revenue rises above that floor. They get paid twice, once on the hardware sale and again through their share of the rental revenue – IF rental revenue holds up. Mark Cuban has famously said that in a few years most datacenters will be converted to pickleball courts, but I think he couldn’t be more wrong.

In a Yahoo Finance interview, Colette said: “We recognize the scale of this support, and we know some will call this circular financing. We see it differently. We’re going through a major computing platform shift. The creation of one of the most important technologies in human history. And these are once in a generation companies. Their technology leadership is proven, and their customer traction and usage are skyrocketing. We expect them to become the largest technology companies in history. We believe these investments, measured against the strength of their demand, the business they create for us, the ecosystem they build on Nvidia’s platform, and the equity returns on our invested capital will be excellent. And our risk is limited. The Nvidia compute platform is fungible and durable and can be redeployed to support other customers.”

The stock jumped 9% the day after the earnings report, hitting my $225 first target. NVDA is a Buy under $225 for a $275 next target.

By the way, Time magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people in artificial intelligence for 2026 includes actor Ben Affleck, musician (?) Paris Hilton, and Senator Bernie Sanders. It does not include Jensen Huang, which tells you all you need to know about why Time is dying.

Onsemi (ON – $70.98) presented at the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference (WEBCAST HEREand TRANSCRIPT HERE). We’ll get a lot more detail at the September 16 Investor Day presentation. ON is a Buy under $60 for a $130 first target.

Palantir (PLTR – $169.53) won an Army contract for eight new TITAN systems. The Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node (TITAN) ground station system is the Army’s next-generation deep-sensing capability enabled by artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Meanwhile, Palantir’s Maven artificial intelligence platform is “surging” towards generating at least $1 billion in annual recurring revenue, according to William Blair. They wrote: “Our government Dotted Line tracker and media reports suggest that the Pentagon continues to go all in on Palantir’s Maven Smart System. Our tracker indicates that MSS is by far Palantir’s largest overall contract, and the Department of War program is trending toward a billion-dollar annual revenue run-rate across numerous contracts. All signs point to continued strong growth over the next nine months, with MSS expected to achieve program-of-record [POR] status.”

Blair has an Outperform rating on Palantir. They noted that several media outlets have reported that the Pentagon is looking to boost funding for Palantir by $244 million between now and March 2027. And with the Pentagon looking to focus more on artificial intelligence and other high-tech weapons systems, Palantir’s Maven Smart System is viewed as “just as important on the battlefield as its most important munitions,” Blair added. And given that the Pentagon has asked for $2.3 billion for the Maven Smart System (and the Joint Fires Network), Blair thinks it’s likely that the system will continue boosting Palantir’s U.S. government revenue.

CEO Alex Karp did an interview with Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick at the G20 Innovation Ministerial:

PLTR is a Buy under $160 for a $200 first target.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $52.17) fell after Stripe and Advent withdrew their $60.50 a share buyout offer. They may be just sending a message to the Board that their next offer had better be accepted. PayPal’s scale – 439 million accounts, over $1.8 trillion in transaction processing volume (TPV), and strong free cash flow – supports a higher valuation.

It’s true that Stripe’s rapid TPV growth (about 34% year-over-year) contrasts with PayPal’s slower pace, but PayPal remains a cash-generative fintech leader and offers a massive, complementary customer-oriented account portfolio. I’ve used both PayPal and Stripe for subscriptions, and PayPal is much better. PYPL is a Buy under $50 for a triple in three years.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $21.68) is rumored to be talking with investment banks about a potential $10 billion to $20 billion bond offering to help refinance a loan for its investment in OpenAI. The offering could be denominated in dollars and euros and could come as early as September.

Masa plans to invest close to $65 billion in OpenAI by October, funded in part by loans. As you know, I think he’s making a mistake. For now, Hold SFTBY for a target of $30 as the discount to hard book value shrinks.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $3.16) stock plunged 18% on CEO Raj Talluri’s sudden resignation, hitting an all-time low, even though Raj obviously got a dream offer to be CEO of Kulicke & Soffa. The company is positioned for growth with its AI-1 silicon-anode smartphone battery, boasting industry-leading 7,350 mAh capacity and fast charging. Once they show they can make it in high volumes – which is happening right now – the stock should soar.

They said their drone and defense battery portfolio manufactured in South Korea is compliant with the Trade Agreements Act (TAA). That expands their ability to serve U.S. government defense programs. Enovix is doubling its in-house drone battery production capacity in South Korea by mid-2027 to support growing demand from the U.S. and allied government customers. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

Fastly (FSLY – $22.71) announced a Singapore distribution partnership with Ingram Micro. Fastly’s programmable edge cloud platform will enable organizations in Singapore to build faster, more secure and more resilient digital experiences. FSLY is a Buy under $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.

PagerDuty (PD – $13.58) announced July second quarter revenues grew 0.8% from last yer to $124.4 million. That’s not much growth, but they beat Wall Street’s $123.02 forecast. Pro forma earnings of 32¢ a share also beat by a penny. They also were profitable on a GAAP basis for the fifth straight quarter, and had $32.8 million in free cash flow.

On the conference call (WEBCAST HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO John DiLullo guided the October third quarter to revenue between $123 million and $125 million, right on the consensus estimate for $124.19 million. Pro forma earning per share will be 34¢-36¢, a tick above the 34¢ estimate. They are implementing a 15% workforce reduction and expect an October quarter operating margin of 26.5%-27.5%.

For the full January 2028 fiscal year, John expects total revenue of $491.5 million to $496.5 million. Analysts expected $493.22 million. Adjusted net income per diluted share is expected to be between $1.33 and $1.37 versus a consensus of $1.32.

John said PagerDuty has pivoted to focus on “just three things: first, building products that our customers love; second, activating go-to-market motions that convert and expand; and third, optimizing every expense that doesn’t directly aid to the first two focus areas.”

He said their annual recurring revenue (ARR) went over the $500 million milestone for the first time, and added: “We see a clear path to our 30% long-term non-GAAP operating margin target.”

He also announced a product rebrand tied to general availability. They are renaming Operations Cloud to the PD Reliability Platform when it is released to general availability later this quarter. John said: “Our usage-based pricing democratizes access to critical agentic capabilities.”

Click for larger graphic

They ended the quarter with $470.0 million in cash. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $10.73) introduced a next-generation eFPGA Hard IP for GlobalFoundries 12LP process. It delivers improved performance and area efficiency, and scales beyond 250,000 look-up tables (LUTs) to address designs with larger embedded programmable logic requirements. It also adds enhanced DSP and optional configuration bit health monitoring to detect and correct configuration bit errors while the eFPGA user design is active, supporting applications where near-real-time configuration integrity and system reliability are paramount. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.

ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $59.95) Top 10 holdings as of August 31 were:

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ARKVX is a Buy for the Anthropic IPO.
Primary Risk: Cathie sells the stock before the IPOs.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $15.17) announced the top-line 52-week results from the Phase 3 COMP005 trial. The open-label Part C data showed four important findings: (1), notable additional benefit was observed with an added reduction in MADRS score leading to an average 13-point reduction from baseline at Week 52, and extended out to 1 year for participants who were randomized to the 25 mg arm and received an additional dose in Part C; (2), for participants in the placebo arm who received their first dose of COMP360 25 mg in Part C, the results confirmed that a single dose of 25 mg has the potential to produce rapid onset, meaningful effect and durability; (3), for all participants in Part C who received a 25 mg dose, strong response and remission rates were observed with 40%-45% responders and approximately 30% remitters across all time points in the six weeks after the Part C dose; and (4), the COMP360 safety profile in Part C is consistent with Parts A and B and continues to show a generally well-tolerated and safe profile with no new safety findings.

CEO Kabir Nath said: “COMP360 has now demonstrated rapid onset, substantial magnitude of effect and sustained durability through one year with just a few doses. This emerging clinical profile is unmatched in treatment-resistant depression (TRD) and puts COMP360 in a league of its own. We are excited for what this means for TRD patients and for those who care for them, and the potential to move beyond treatments that require daily or frequent administration. As we continue to advance COMP360 for patients, our rolling NDA submission and review are well underway, with final NDA submission expected in the fourth quarter and launch expected in the first half of next year, subject to FDA approval. With a robust clinical package, and growing patient and provider anticipation for COMP360 as a much-needed treatment for TRD, Compass is well-positioned and ready to deliver.”

Compass should trade in the $25-$30 range around approval, so I added it to the Near-Term Top 5. COMP360 offers a capacity advantage over Spravato, enabling four times more patients per monitored hour and supporting higher peak sales estimates.

As I wrote above, CMPS is a California Technology Stock Letter recommendation and you can read the standard Initiating Coverage memo by CLICKING HERE. CMPS is a Buy under $10 for a very long-term hold to $200.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: February 2027
   Probable time of next financing: Never

TG Therapeutics’ (TGTX – $54.65) next three quarters includes two catalysts to drive the stock up. The company will present preliminary Phase 1 azer-cel data in progressive multiple sclerosis in the second half of 2026 and then top-line Phase 3 data for subcutaneous Briumvi by year-end 2026/early 2027.

TG is a prime takeover target, fueled by Briumvi’s growth and the coming subcutaneous data. Biogen and Incyte are the most plausible acquirers. Sanofi, despite a larger market cap that does not fit into the rumored range, offers the strongest strategic fit for Briumvi. I’m raising my Buy limit to $45 and my target price in a buyout to $60 or more.
Primary Risk: Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($4,440.60) pulled back from three-month highs after the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased 3.7% in the 12 months through July, slightly above consensus estimates. Traders now see ‌a 60% chance of a rate hike next week, compared with 36% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Miners & Related

First Majestic Silver (AG – $21.18) filed their NI 43-101 Technical Report for their 70%-owned Los Gatos Silver Mine, supporting their March 31 estimates for their four operating mines in Mexico and the Jerritt Canyon Gold Mine in Nevada. That showed a 4% year-over-year increase in silver-equivalent ounces, including a 16% increase in Proven and Probable silver reserves. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $1.36) said the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has completed its review as required under the National Environmental Policy Act and approved the company’s Plan of Operations for the Grassy Mountain Gold Project in Malheur County, Oregon. Also, following a review of the reclamation cost estimate detailed in the Grassy Mountain Reclamation Plan, the BLM has concurred that the estimate is sufficient to meet all anticipated reclamation requirements based on the current mine plan. Prior to construction, Paramount will post the financial guarantee, triggering an official Decision letter and the issuance of the final Notice to Proceed of the approved Plan of Operations for the construction of Grassy Mountain. PZG is a Buy under $1 for a $10 target as gold moves higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
   Probable time of next financing: 2026

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $78,371.65) fell 54% from its high. Ethereum fell 70%. Both have now recovered back above their 200-day moving averages—the average price over the last 200 trading days, and the line most professionals use to separate an uptrend from a downtrend. Every previous time bitcoin has crossed back above that line after a fall like this one has marked the end of the down cycle.

Click for larger graphic

Bernstein wrote some red meat for the animals: “In our base case, we expect bitcoin to reach new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 by 2029 end. However, given the macro regime shift, if institutional capital actively chases bitcoin, we could see an accelerated timeline, with bitcoin potentially peaking at $500,000 in 2029 and rapid recovery to new all-time highs of ~$200.000 by mid-2027. We maintain our bitcoin price forecast of ~$1 million by 2033 end.”

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $44.29) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $18.58) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy for the coming explosion in token-funded start-ups.
Primary Risk: Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $97.14

Oil is starting to reflect reality. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve just hit a 44-year low at 286.6 million barrels, after another 3.1 million barrels disappeared during the week ending August 28. That is 40.1% of its 714 million barrel authorized capacity, and the lowest level since November 19, 1982. The reserve has been drawn on for hurricanes, pipeline failures, refinery outages, and Operation Desert Storm in 1991, and in every one of those cases the withdrawal was measured in tens of millions of barrels and refilled afterwards. The two recent episodes — Ukraine in 2022 and Iran in 2026 — each removed more than a hundred million barrels, and only the first has seen any meaningful refill.

In late February, the reserve held roughly 415.4 million barrels. On March 11, after the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, the Department of Energy announced a presidentially-authorised release of 172 million barrels over about 120 days — the American share of a 400 million barrel action coordinated with IEA member countries.

But, guess what? In May, the Government Accountability Office reported that more than 25% of the reserve’s inventory was “not available for drawdown due to a combination of construction outages and cavern outages.” A July analysis by Rapidan Energy put the implied figure at a minimum of 103 million barrels that cannot currently be pumped. Subtract that and the usable reserve today is closer to 184 million barrels than 287 million.

The GAO’s framing was even blunter than the 25% number: the reserve’s drawdown, distribution and fill capabilities are currently limited and at risk going forward, because of long-standing problems with aging infrastructure compounded by the very construction meant to fix them. The reserve began filling in 1977, which makes the oldest infrastructure roughly fifty years old. Pumps, pipelines, brine ponds, and control systems have all been running through repeated fill and drawdown cycles that were never part of the original design assumption, because the reserve was built to sit still and be used rarely. The repairs that will eventually restore capacity are themselves the reason a portion of the reserve is unavailable now.

Rebuilding the reserve to a comfortable level means buying roughly 200 million barrels, which at recent prices represents something on the order of $18 billion of crude demand entering the market. After the 2022 releases, buybacks began in June 2023 and added about 14.7 million barrels over nine months. At that rate, replacing 200 million barrels is a project measured in years rather than quarters.

America is prosecuting an oil-sensitive war with its official emergency reserve sitting at a 44-year low. Then comes the question that can put crude back above $100: When does China return to the international market to refill its tanks? Kpler thinks that moment may arrive sooner than the market expects.

The September 2027 Crude Oil Futures (CLU7.NYM – no trades) are a Buy under $75 for my lowered $100+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $55.27) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $13.37) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk: Oil and natural gas prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $14.55) completed its acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials Limited (ASM), a leading producer of rare earth element (REE) metals and alloys. The acquisition of ASM is an important step in Energy Fuels’ long-term growth strategy to build an integrated mine-to-magnet rare earth platform. Their White Mesa Mill’s regulatory approvals and infrastructure for processing REE-rich monazite sands have enabled it to produce NdPr since April 2024, positioning it ahead of competitors.

I recommended Energy Fuels because it is the only North American company producing both uranium and separated rare earth elements, giving it a first-mover advantage in domestic REE processing. Their low debt, positive cash flow, and unique regulatory position all point to long-term growth. Yes, there are risks, including commodity price volatility (although I think uranium will march steadily higher for years), regulatory hurdles, and potential Chinese price suppression. But Energy Fuels’ strategic capabilities and head start remain unmatched, so UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

EQT (EQT – $54.63) is the premier pure-play U.S. natural gas operator, with industry-leading break-even costs and a deep Appalachian inventory. Its stock has diverged from its oil peers, falling 10% post-Iran crisis, reflecting its pure natural gas exposure versus oil-linked sector exchange-traded funds. I think the market is underestimating their long-term tailwinds, including sustained high global gas prices, rising U.S. LNG exports, and increased local demand from regional data center growth. EQT is a buy under $70 for a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $76.23) rose as copper surged to an all-time high above $14,530 a ton, up more than 68% since Liberation Day. There’s an old saying on Wall Street that Dr Copper is the metal with a PhD in economics – think a booming economy and inflation.

Click for larger graphic h/t @biancoresearch
FCX is a Hold for higher copper prices .
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.

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RIP Dolly Parton

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Your happy to Let the Bond Market Speak Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 9/9/26. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $145.65) – Buy under $115, first target price $150
  Meta (META – $653.69) – Buy under $705 for a long-term hold
  Nvidia (NVDA – $223.67) – Buy under $225 for a long-term hold
  Onsemi (ON – $70.98) – Buy under $80, first target price $130
  Palantir (PLTR – $169.53) – Buy under $160 for $200 first target price
  PayPal (PYPL – $52.17) – Buy under $50, target price $150
  Snap (SNAP – $5.31) – Buy under $11, target price $17+

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $3.16) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $94.48) – Buy under $75; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $22.71) – Buy under $25 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $50+
  PagerDuty (PD – $13.58) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $10.73) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX – $59.95) – Buy for Anthropic IPO

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $11.05) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA – $0.95) – Buy under $4, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $15.17) – Buy under $15, hold a long time for a 20x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $2.77) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $1.32) – Buy for a very long-term hold
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $54.65) – Buy under $45 for buyout at $60+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($67.82) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $82.60) – Buy under $50, target price $75
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $100.01) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $44.97) – Buy under $35, target price $60
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $100.11) – Buy under $60, target price $100
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $1.36) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Royal Gold (RGLD – $262.54) – Buy under $180

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $78,371.65) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $44.29) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,468.94)– Buy
  iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $18.58) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – September 2027 (CLU7.NYM – no trades) – Buy under $75; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $55.27) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $13.37) – Buy under $11; $24+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $14.55) – Buy under $18; $30 target
  EQT (EQT – $54.63) – Buy under $70; hold for much higher prices ($100+)

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $21.68) – Hold for $30 target
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $0.32) – Hold to see structured financing terms
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $4.91) – Hold through the after-effects of the reverse split
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $21.00) – Hold for higher gold prices
  Dakota Gold (DC – $5.95) – Hold for higher gold prices
  First Majestic Silver (AG – $21.18) – Hold for higher silver prices
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $76.23) – Hold for higher copper prices

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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