Dear New World Investor:
This morning’s first revision of the June quarter real GDP report raised the annual growth rate from 2.8% to a healthy 3.0%. That’s more than double the sluggish 1.4% growth rate in the March quarter.
Click for larger graphic h/t Yahoo Finance
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, rose at a 2.9% annual rate last quarter, up from 2.3% in the initial estimate. Business investment expanded at a 7.5% rate, led by a 10.8% jump in investment in equipment.
The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), rose at a 2.5% annual rate last quarter, down from 3.4% in the March quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, core PCE inflation grew at a 2.7% pace, down from 3.2% in the March period and getting closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target. We’ll get the latest monthly PCE tomorrow morning.
At the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chairman Powell said the time for interest rate cuts is here. Ed Yardini said Powell: “didn’t utter any hawkish views whatsoever to alter the market’s dovish expectations for several rate cuts … So the only ambiguity about coming rate cuts is how many and how much.”
Click for larger graphic h/t Yardini Research
We aren’t going back to the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and I still think a mild recession is unavoidable, but right now this looks as close to a soft landing as anyone could expect.
Market Outlook
The venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average hit all-time highs today at 41.577.97 intraday and 41,335.05 closing. The S&P 500 added 3.8% since last Thursday and is up 17.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained just 0.6% as the AI stocks continued to be weak. It is up 16.7% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) inched up 0.4% after today’s drop. It is up 12.6% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 ticked down 0.7% but still is up 8.7% in 2024.
The fractal dimension is still consolidating the huge rally from the April low. So far, it’s been a mixture of price and time. I expect that to continue.
Click for larger graphic
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
SCYX – ScyNexis – Data releases and resolution of the manufacturing problem
AAPL Apple – September 9 iPhone 16 introduction
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
CMPS – Compass Pathways – Rebound from negative AdCom review of MDMA and Phase 3 data release in December quarter
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics – Vafseo TDAPA approval in January
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for September quarter GDP growth, updated this morning, still is at +2.0%.
Click for larger graphic
JPMorgan raised their probability of a 2024 recession from 25% to 35%, while maintaining the probability of a recession by the end of 2025 at 45%. They cited signs of weakening economic growth and a softer-than-expected labor market. They said the July jobs report showing an increase in the unemployment rate for the fourth month in a row suggested that the labor market is beginning to soften, increasing recession risks.
In addition to a sharper-than-expected weakening in labor demand and early signs of labor shedding, they said global manufacturing and the euro area have shown a loss of momentum – two areas they previously expected to drive growth. They only went to 35% because key recession vulnerabilities, such as sustained profit margin compression, credit market stress, and energy or financial market shocks, are still absent.
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, August 30
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator
Monday, September 2
Markets Closed – Labor Day
Tuesday, September 3
PD – PagerDuty – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Wednesday, September 4
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 7:45am – Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 11:00am – Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
EDIT – Editas Medicines – 4:05pm – Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
Thursday, September 5
GLW – Corning – 9:10am – Citi Global TMT Conference
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 12:00pm – Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference
EDIT – Editas Medicines – 4:30pm – Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
Friday, September 6
MDNA – Medicenna – 8:00am – Oral presentation on MDNA209 at the Promise of Interleukin-2 Therapy Conference, Paris
August payrolls – 8:30am
AKBA – Akebia – 9:30am – Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
Saturday, September 7
MDNA – Medicenna – 3:00am – Oral presentation on MDNA113 at the Promise of Interleukin-2 Therapy Conference, Paris
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple‘s (AAPL – $229.79) revenue and earnings will be boosted by AI demand, says Third Point CEO Daniel Loeb: “Despite the stock’s recent strong appreciation, we see room for significant upside ahead as the magnitude of this new AI opportunity surprises…Despite Apple’s dominance as a business, its stock has become increasingly ‘under-owned’ by institutional investors, and its relative multiple has compressed toward a multi-year low after several years of stagnant earnings growth and concerns that Apple might become an AI loser. Our research led us to a different conclusion: we believe AI-related demand could drive a step change improvement in Apple’s revenue and earnings over the next few years.”
AAPL is a HOLD – I expect to move it back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones.
Meta Platforms (META – $518.22) partnered with Sage Geosystems on a first-of-its-kind project to significantly expand the use of geothermal energy in the US. Sage’s proprietary Geopressured Geothermal System will be used to provide up to 150 megawatts of carbon-free power for Meta’s data centers, beginning in 2027. This is meant to deflect criticism of the use of AI because the data centers need a tremendous amount of power.
Meta is closing their Spark augmented reality studio platform on January 14 to focus on investments in AI. This means that AR effects built by third parties, including brands and the community of AR Creators, will no longer be available, but AR effects owned by Meta will continue to be available to users across its family of apps.
They said: “With the decision to shut down the Meta Spark platform, we’re also shifting resources to the next generation of experiences, across new form factors like glasses.” They said the decision was part of their larger efforts to prioritize the products they believe will best serve the future needs of their consumers and business customers. I think this a small mistake – AR glasses just haven’t caught on. META is a Hold – I expect to move it back to a Buy under $400.
Palantir (PLTR – $31.00) won a three-year deal with Sompo for a data integration and AI solution to drive digital transformation at the insurer, which is among the top five in the Corporate and Agribusiness Insurance segment in Brazil. Palantir has an existing partnership with Sompo’s parent company, Sompo Holdings, in Japan. Sompo will use Foundry and Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) to support improved decision-making in key areas of Sompo’s business such as pricing, underwriting, and risk management. This is a good example of the “land & expand” marketing strategy. PLTR is a Buy under $22 for a $100+ target.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL – $73.16) is rolling out Fastlane, its guest checkout profile that gives their merchant customers checkout accelerators. PayPal’s 400+ million accounts allows it to identify a large percentage of online shoppers and expedite sign in and checkout.
Once a customer ops into a Fastlane profile, as I have, they get lightning fast checkout at every opted-in PayPal merchant. It doesn’t matter if a customer shops with that merchant weekly or hasn’t even entered its site before – Fastlane delivers the same seamless checkout experience. Merchants all know that 80+% of consumers at some point have abandoned their cart due to checkout friction. It’s even worse with those entering as a Guest. Guest checkout struggles to reach a 50% shopper conversion rate. This is a massive issue for online merchants and a massive opportunity for PayPal.
Fastlane is yielding a conversion rate between 75% and 90% for several merchants and is powering 32% faster guest checkout. PayPal is orienting Fastlane to focus on the merchant – it is not trying to build this product into a brand like PayPal or Venmo. It’s just using Fastlane to increase its merchant base’s success. To encourage merchants to give Fastlane a try, PayPal is not charging any incremental service fees for Fastlane access through the end of 2024. It still will profit from any incremental transaction volume Fastlane delivers, but the big impact will come in 2025 after PayPal implements a small transaction fee.
With Fastlane rolling out and tap-to-pay on iPhone opening up in Europe, PYPL is a Buy under $68 for a double in three years.
Small Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $6.09) found that 59% of IT professionals reported an increase in bot attacks over the past year, with significant incidents costing companies an average of $2.9 million (Bot Wars: How Bad Bots are Hurting Businesses).
76% of respondents from organizations across a wide range of industries, including financial services, retail, IT, and telecommunications, faced at least one bot attack in the past year, with 43% experiencing multiple bot attacks. Respondents endured an array of bot attacks including malware distribution, click fraud, and Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks. In fact, 91% of respondents believe automated bot attacks are now the “norm for ecommerce organizations.” Of course, Fastly’s software allows organizations to block and rapidly respond to bots.
In a negative note, Morgan Stanley lowered its target price from $12 to $7 while keeping its Equal-Weight rating because Fastly’s execution “keeps slipping.” They wrote: “With a string of disappointing results in recent quarters, the fundamental picture of Fastly continues to disappoint. We view mounting competitive pressures in [the] core delivery business coupled with lack of scale and more robust growth in the security business likely keeping Fastly a sub-10% grower for the next several quarters.”
And that’s where we disagree. I get it that the last quarter was very disappointing, but AI is going to significantly increase the number and severity of bad guy attacks, and Fastly is very competitive in the core content delivery business. FSLY is a Buy up to $10 for a 3- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
PagerDuty (PD – $19.77) reports July second quarter results next Tuesday after the close. Consensus expectations are for revenue of $116.48 million with 17¢ earnings per share. Guidance should be for $120.25 million and 18¢. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $6.23) got a very positive Seeking Alpha article, Rocket Lab: Way More Upside Than Previously Thought, focused on the company’s freshly articulated strategic aim to get into space services. With that layered on the sizable backlog, progress on Neutron, and potential “space economy” upside, they rate the stock a Strong Buy. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Biotech MegaShift
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.52) will present at the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference next Friday and the H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference on September 9. The TDAPA launch of Vafseo is a compelling story and they get better and better at telling it. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the vadadustat launches in the EU, UK, and (after TDAPA approval in December) the US.
Primary Risk: Vafseo doesn’t sell in the US.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next approval: TDAPA January
Probable time of next financing: Never
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.64) is not the target of the current round of FDA interviews with several individuals familiar with the clinical trials conducted by Lykos Therapeutics for its rejected MDMA-based PTSD therapy as it investigates potential improprieties. The Wall Street Journal reported that at least four individuals have been interviewed about the possibility that some side effects, including suicidal thoughts, were not reported.
In Compass’ Phase 2 trial, three participants in the high dose (25-milligram) group displayed suicidal behavior, with two reports of suicidal ideation in each of the higher-dose (25-milligram and 10-milligram) arms. Suicide is the most serious consequence of major depressive disorder (MDD) and it is particularly prevalent in patients with more severe depression, such as those with treatment-resistant depression (TRD). Therefore, any therapy that has the potential to increase suicidal ideation or behavior, especially in vulnerable populations, carries significant concern.
However, we know that suicidal behavior is common in patients with TRD, so the FDA will want to know whether the adverse effects seen were due to the psilocybin or the disease itself. Compass has designed the two Phase 3 trials now underway to determine the safety of psilocybin and whether the benefits will outweigh the risks in such a hard-to-treat patient population.
About one-third of patients with major depressive disorder do not respond to two or more adequately dosed antidepressant therapies and are referred to as having TRD. There is a significant unmet need for therapies that can treat this patient population, thus Compass’ positive efficacy results for psilocybin supported a Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the FDA for COMP360 in 2018.
Currently available antidepressants show effects only after several weeks of treatment. There is a need for a treatment with a rapid onset of action, particularly for patients who have severe depression or TRD and require hospitalization. In Compass’ Phase IIb trial, the high dose 25-milligram group demonstrated statistical significance on the day after COMP360 psilocybin was administered.
The company will present at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference next Wednesday, the H. C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference on September 10, and the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference on September 17. At each presentation they will be focused on educating investors about why they are different from Lykos and how they have agreed with the FDA to deal with the “functional unblinding” problem in psychedelic drug trials. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2026
Probable time of next financing: Late 2025
Editas Medicine (EDIT – $3.71) also presents at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference next Wednesday, then the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference the next day, then the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference on September 17, and finally the Chardan Genetic Medicines Conference on October 1. I appreciate them getting the word out, but they tend to focus on their in-house drugs that few biotech investors care about instead of potential new licenses for their core genetic editing Intellectual Property. That’s where the big money will be. EDIT is a Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices.
Primary Risk: Other companies’ gene-sequencing drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Partnered: Approved; Owned: Preclinical.
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: 2026 or never
ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.46) presents on September 11 at the H. C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference and this is when they might announce the new manufacturer for ibrexafungerp. I think that’s possible because they posted a new Corporate Update that included two new statements:
Click for larger graphic
Click for larger graphic
Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Never
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($2,555.30) continues to rally over $2,500 as Wall Street debates how fast and how large the Fed cuts will be, setting new all-time intraday and closing highs today. This may turn into a “sell the news” event as we cash in. The fractal dimension nailed this uptrend and shows plenty of energy to push higher as the Fed starts cutting.
Click for larger graphic
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $59,415.66) flirted with $65,000 as exchange-traded funds got the highest inflow in over a month – over $252 million – last Friday after Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
Click for larger graphic h/t Bloomberg
Today’s move is just more base-building before the next leg up into yearend.
Click for larger graphic
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHA are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $33.69) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $19.16) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy ethereum. ETHA is a Buy.
Primary Risk:Ethereum falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity wrote: “One by-product of the emerging Fed easing cycle is that the US is now potentially transitioning from a period of fiscal expansion and monetary restriction to a regime where the Fed (presumably) returns to a neutral policy, while the fiscal expansion continues. It could bring us closer to a regime of pure fiscal dominance. That suggests a weaker dollar, and higher gold prices (and other real assets). Indeed, we can already see gold making new highs.”
That probably is true no matter who wins the Presidential election, but what’s more important is how the market will perceive the outcome. If Vice President Harris wins, the stock market probably will adopt Jurrien’s outlook. But if President Trump is elected again, the market might expect a stronger dollar and “drill, baby, drill” to bring down oil prices. Even if neither of those happen, the expectation that they might happen could weaken commodity prices.
Oil – $75.89
Oil rose after (1) Powell’s speech raised forecasts for the economy, (2) escalating conflict in the Middle East, and (3) Libya announced the closure of all oil fields, halting production and export loading at five main terminals. Libya produces one million barrels a day.
For last week, the American Petroleum Institute reported a crude oil draw of 3.4 million barrels, a gasoline draw of 1.86 million barrels, and a distillates draw of 1.4 million barrels. The Energy Information Administration reported crude down 846,000 barrels, gasoline down 2.203 million barrels, and distillates down 275,000 barrels. These two sources never agree with each other week-to-week, but over the longer term tend to show about the same results.
Global oil inventories are at their lowest seasonal levels in recorded history. This is not bearish.
Click for larger graphic h/t @ericnuttall
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $67.38) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $38.59) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.
Vermilion Energy (VET – $10.31) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk:Oil prices fall.
EQT (EQT – $33.51) is a very Strong Buy right now. The stock is depressed by the current low price of natural gas. Total lower-48 gas supply can increase 15 billion cubic feet a day (Bcf/d) from the end of 2023 level to about 121 Bcf/d production. That supply can meet both LNG and Mexico gas exports.
But the big delta is electric power burn demand. I don’t see power burn demand declining from now to 2030, but the consensus view appears to be that power burn demand will drop. The demand for AI power plus the continued substitution of natural gas for coal makes the consensus wrong. While near-term fundamentals remain challenging, the structural increases will creating a severe mismatch by 2026. EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $4.79) moved up after Kazatomprom, the world’s largest producer, released output guidance for next year that was below market expectations. Kazakhstan’s state-owned uranium miner said it plans to produce 25,000-26,500 tons of uranium in 2025, far less than previous guidance of 30,500-31,500 tons. That’s about 12% growth from 2024 guidance for 22,500-23,500 tons, but notably below agreements that require it to produce much more for the year. Kazatomprom’s CEO said: “The uncertainty around the sulfuric acid supplies for 2025 [needed to pump the metal from the ground] and delays in the construction works at the newly developed deposits resulted in a need to re-evaluate our 2025 plans.”
BMO Capital Markets said Kazakhstan’s lower production will leave the uranium market in a deficit. Segra Capital Management told Bloomberg the guidance “brings the entire production curve guidance down for several years.”
Last week, China approved a record number of permits for 11 new nuclear reactors. Demand numbers keep going up and supply numbers keep coming down. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
* * * * *
* * * * *
Your reading about gain-of-function experiments Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Priced 8/29/24. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $41.87) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $79.45) – Buy under $80, target price $120
Palantir (PLTR – $31.00) – Buy under $22, target price $100+
PayPal (PYPL – $73.16) – Buy under $68, target price $136
SoftBank (SFTBY – $28.66) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $9.67) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $58.80 – Buy under $60; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $6.09) – Buy under $14; 3- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $19.77) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.07) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $6.23) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
$20-for-$1 Biotech
AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $2.53) – Buy under $6, target $30+
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.52) – Buy under $2, target $20
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.64) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Editas Medicines (EDIT – $3.71) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
Inovio (INO – $7.32) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
Medicenna (MDNAF – $1.57) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.46) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $23.51) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($29.81) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $30.52) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $34.84) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $23.42) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $32.90) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $6.18) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.59) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.42) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.79) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $41..03) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $59,415.66) – Buy
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $33.69) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,535.33) – Buy
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA- $19.16) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $67.38) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $38.59) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
Vermilion Energy (VET – $10.31) – Buy under $11; $24 target
EQT (EQT – $33.51) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $4.79) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $43.83) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Apple Computer (AAPL – $229.79) – Expect to move back to Buy under $175 for new iPhones
Meta (META – $518.22) – Expect to move back to Buy under $400
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FIRST !!!
I still have a small amount of Infinera. With the coming merger with Nokia I could use some advice/thoughts on the potential for Nokia. My question is which payout to choose? Get out completely and deploy money in something else or stick with as many NOK shares as I can get with the anticipation that their optical capacities blossom? Anyone else looking at the same decision? Tku
Yes, same here. Which option are you thinking is best?
Since I have few shares, I am thinking to take the stake in NOK, hoping that there is a possibility that it strengthens coming up.
Picking what is behind the curtain in door #2~
“a number of ordinary shares, with no nominal value and in book-entry form, of Nokia (“Nokia Shares”) based on an exchange ratio of 1.7896 Nokia Shares for each share of Infinera Common Stock (such consideration, the “Share Consideration”)”
How about you? Share your outlook with me…
My sentiments exactly. I like Nokia as a product and a company. Looking good going forward IMO. Thanks for your input.
Hi Michael
SCYX seems to be stuck just below $1.50 for the longest time. I would have thought the stock price would move up slightly pending the imminent lifting of the manufacturing hold. With the approval of SCY-247 way off in the future, could you refresh our memories again as to the hospital use of brexafemme as a stepdown drug after hospitalization as a driver of the stock in the near future. I believe you had mentioned previously that the development of SCY-247 was not necessary for this use, Is there still some form of approval required? Scoured the website and could not find what related to this question.
Thanks and have a great weekend
We have to assume that scyx has nothing good to say at the moment because if they did why on earth would they not release it now instead of waiting until the 11th of September conference,why the hell would not want there stock to rebound,terrible
I agree. The same line of reasoning applies to the update of FURI and CARES. There was no detailed PR about that, other than the statement that the results were comparable to previous FURI and CARES results which I thought were mediocre. They will release the latest detailed results at a scientific meeting soon. But what scares me the most is that all these trials had small numbers of patients enrolled. If they can’t get large numbers enrolled, that suggests small demand for the product used for a particular purpose. (This was the kiss of death for ARTH which had a great wound product, but demand for it was low, and they couldn’t charge enough to generate decent revenue. For NVTA, demand was decent, but unit revenue was small, so total revenue was insufficient to keep them out of bankruptcy. For VLD, the utility was so good but that meant that few printers were needed by a company. Even Space X, VLD’s largest customer only needed 25 printers. That’s only just over $100 million in total revenue. That’s a pittance for a company that was touted as a leader in its field. For the last 1-2 years, they had little revenue.)
247 better be a super duper fungal treatment, otherwise SCYX is a dead company equivalent to a dividend payer barely able to generate consistent earnings. We won’t know for many years. First, 247 has to show good phase 1, 2 results in small numbers of patients. Will SCYX have the funding to get 247 through a large phase 3 trial? If so, will approval then generate enough sales to get us to break even before we die?
There are many much better investment choices than SCYX.
Here’s my post on SCYX from the end of the previous board.
Reply to rick taylor
August 30, 2024 10:16 pm
FDA approval of manufacturing (whenever it actually occurs) will give a small bump to the stock. If MARIO is as mediocre as FURI and CARES were for Brexa, the bump will fizzle out. Even if MARIO is better, SCYX collects only a small fraction of the Brexa revenue for serious infections. Even with the small bump, most of us will be down hugely from our average cost. A much better prospect is AKBA. The safest excellent prospect is TGTX even at current prices. The only remaining buying opportunity for TGTX will be in mid Sept when Ocrevus gets approved for subcutaneous injection and it gets a boost in competitiveness vs Briumvi.
thanks for the insight.
I am with you on TGTX . I am now up 76 percent. And like you I think it will continue on an upward crawl. Also MDNAF now up 104 percent. Two of NWI’s winners in my corral. IMO
Be careful. The science on MDNAF is totally speculative. It is crazy to believe that you can control disease by manipulating cytokines. Nobody understands what a “better” cytokine is. I expect that such a therapeutic approach will cause imbalances in other cytokines. Unless you treat the root causes of cytokine activation such as nutritional, infectious, genetic factors, you’re asking for trouble. The same can be said for TGTX’s Briumvi, SCYX’s Brexa. The mediocrity of Brexa is easier to understand than the other drugs of TGTX and MDNAF. Anyone who eats a poor diet with lots of sugar will get recurrent yeast infections. I don’t expect much better results from the 2nd generation 247 for this reason.
We are reduced to getting lucky about which drug will be better. So far, we are lucky with TGTX. It becomes a matter of getting in cheap enough, and being mindful of overvaluations at any time. MDNAF has skyrocketed this year, so is vulnerable to a big pullback. It is at a much earlier stage than TGTX. TGTX skyrocketed last year, so is somewhat safer. Even TGTX skyrocketed recently, so is vulnerable to a plunge to $15 or so. If you want to get more shares of TGTX, I would lighten up on MDNAF and have cash for more TGTX in case it plunges to $15. TGTX is almost a blue chip with actual positive earnings now, whereas MDNAF is more like a lucky NWI spec stock with a high failure rate.
Proleukin is a multi-billion dollar drug with terrible side effects. MDNA11 is more effective with far less side effects. MDNAF should be at $10 today.
You are again pie in the sky on MDNAF. They are valiantly fighting bad cancers such as GBM where existing therapies are of little survival benefit. 55 showed better overall survival for GBM but still poor. 11 and 55 are in very early trial stages. Why is cancer so hard to treat, let alone cure? There are many mechanisms involved. Addressing inflammatory cytokines is just one of them. I had naive high hopes for APTO. At one time I had 500% gains in APTO, but held on and lost almost 100%. MDNAF faces similar risks based on tunnel vision about mechanisms and the usual early stage risks. In the next few years before MDNAF gets any approvals, some other company will appear and address another mechanism that pans out better. But the real big picture is that unless root causes which I have talked about repeatedly are addressed, nearly all manipulative engineered drug development is doomed. TGTX is a rare, rare, rare exception, like a baseball player with the worst BA of 0.100 working his butt off to become the Hall of Famer with BA of 0.500. But even Briumvi may implode if unexpected significant numbers of cancer cases appear.
If MDNAF had superlative results analogous to TGTX’s Briumvi for MS, I would change my mind. Briumvi faces competition from BTK inhibitors, etc, but its efficacy and safety are so far in front of other companies that they are a relatively safe investment. The best strategy with MDNAF is to take profits on most of your position because of the huge runup this year from 15 cents to a 3.5 year high of just below $2. Let the rest ride, buy on extreme weakness, sell on spikes.
Thanks for your input. How likely do you think TGTX will fall back to $15? Time frame is six months? September is a very week month. Backed up by a Powell rate cut of unknown quantity! MM says it’s worth $10. Apparently you don’t agree?
Manufacturing approval opens over $400 million in milestones and royalties to a company with an $80 million market cap. Big bump.
That $400 million in milestones and royalties is only a potential pie in the sky number analogous to your targets on most NWI stocks. There will be no big bump unless MARIO actually is very favorable. FURI and CARES were mediocre, so MARIO is likely to be the same. There may be a 50% bump which will get us back to $2.00, still a tremendous loss for most of us.
So I’m assuming that your gut is telling you that MM is totally wrong with his expectations of 20 a share first and than 50 like he has been with so many others,this is pertaining to Scyx,tx have a great weekend
And also JGMD what are your realistic share numbers that scyx could achive if things worked out right ,tx
I have no idea of a target price for SCYX assuming 247 is a good drug. As for the next 3 years or so until possible approval of 247, if you were smart enough to avoid buying SCYX at much higher prices recommended by MM, buying an initial position now at $1.35-40 is a reasonable speculation. I call it fairly valued now, but still risky due to the questionable net earnings which are treading water between slightly positive and drowning. Royalties and milestones hold off disaster. Can you hold your breath under water for 2 minutes? Just when you are about to drown, a piddling milestone payment comes in to resuscitate you.
MM is completely off base with most of his target prices. Most of his updates are a rehash of company PR’s that we can read for ourselves. Since he is not a doctor, he doesn’t understand clinical trials. He didn’t comment on the fact that FURI and CARES had few patients enrolled and that the efficacy of Brexa was mediocre. But MM is a qualified financial analyst and gives good macroeconomic market analysis, and yet he is oblivious to clear signs of financial doom for individual companies. The latest case of that was VLD where he had a rosy target of $100 merely 1 week before he recommended selling at about $1.30. His nearly silent, all too brief excuse was that he misjudged actual demand for printers. Amateurs on YMB were aware 1 year ago that demand was declining precipitously. Impending financial doom was a natural conclusion to them and subscriber Brent here, but MM was denying or silent about reality.
Agreed,tx
Definitely agree on the target prices; I bought PZG because it had a target price of $15 when gold reached $1,600 per ounce – it’s still bouncing around $.42 cents. Also, KERX getting bought out at somewhere around $6 per share – well short of the target price.
I was downbeat on KERX and only had a small position. But AKBA has an innovative drug, Vafseo, and I bought lots of it to average down considerably to $1.50. I am now slightly in the green on it. Miracle of miracles! But I averaged down way too early on SCYX, so buying more at $1.70 last Oct only let me average down to $4.70. I am now way overweight in this, and it is mathematically impossible for me to average down significantly. If I did that, I would be stupidly overweight in that, which I would consider as a high risk situation.
A good strategy for NWI with MM’s overly optimistic tendencies is to short the stocks immediately at the buy price, or wait 5 years until they plunge to 10% of their initial buy prices, then speculate that there will eventually be payoffs. OOPS, I did that with VLD. My initial buy was at $1.50 when MM said it was a gift, at 15% of the initial buy price of $10. I kept averaging down to 44 cents. When I sold recently still at a 90% total loss, I took little comfort in feeling sorry for any subscriber who bought at MM’s initial buy price and then suffered a 99.7% loss.
Hello Roger, I could be totally wrong but I think kerx is now akba,can anyone out there confirm this
Yes, KERX merged into AKBA. See my post just below.
I really disagree. For any trial, companies only enroll enough patients to achieve statistical significance vs. placebo, which ScyNexis did.
OK, a small trial may do, but look at the results. MEDIOCRE with statistical significance. Brexa is a piece of garbage for that reason. Sales for VVC were mediocre enough that SCYX had to give the lions share of revenue to GSK in return for milestones/royalties. The original FURI and CARES trials were mediocre, and the latest followups weren’t good enough to merit a detailed PR. If they were, and I was in charge, I would have shouted from the rooftops instead of saying politely they would be presented at a future meeting and just saying that they were comparable to prior results. MARIO may not be any better.
And why the hell is the FDA still sitting on approval of manufacturing? It is now about 1 year and counting, instead of the 9 months you were expecting.
As I showed last week, they updated their investor presentation at the end of August.
The step-down from IV to oral ibrexafungerp in the subject of the MARIO Phase 3 trial that is about to be restarted. GSK will have to take it through FDA approval.
Akba didn’t need anymore financing is the 250 million mixed shelf offering they came out with after the close somehow different MM,tx
Guess he is on vacation
When MM answers questions, it is usually around noon EST/DST. It is 2 hours behind in Colorado.
Yes. Shelf offerings are not imminent stock sales.
Just FYI. Just another reason for Powell to cut interest rates. Lowering our interest rate will indirectly support global economics outside of the US. The value of the dollar is set to fall over the next 2 to 12 months. The DXY (US dollar index) had a death cross on August 26 when the 50 day moving average met the 200 day moving average. Every time that happened over the last 2 decades the value of the dollar fell.
New World Investor for 9.5.24 is posted.