Radar Report – 1.19.23

Michael Murphy
Uncategorized
2023-01-19
19
Jan 23

Dear New World Investor:

The economy is slowing faster than the Fed is (publicly) acknowledging. December retail sales decreased -1.15% versus the consensus expectation for -0.9%. Gas stations, car and auto parts dealers, restaurants, and online sales were especially weak. We are seeing a sequential deceleration in the quarterly trend relative to the yearly trend. This is the monthly evolution of the data relative to its 12-month trend and consensus expectations:

Click for larger graphic

Inflation also is coming down rapidly. Ignore the misleading, lagging housing numbers. Inflation is flattening in services:

(h/t @PrometheusMacro) Click for larger graphic

and we have disinflation in goods:

(h/t @PrometheusMacro) Click for larger graphic

Some say “inflation is the only thing that matters,” but @jfahmy says it better: “How the Fed sees inflation is the only thing that matters.”

Fed Chairman Powell highlighted core services ex-housing as an important subset of inflation because it is a proxy for wage-price pass-through. In December it increased 0.28% from November, just a +2.9% three-month annual rate compared to +5.0% in November. But Powell cited core Personal Consumption Expenditures services ex-housing. The December PCE will be out on January 27.

The leading indicators suggest the year-over-year CPI will normalize quickly in the coming months and get close to 3% in June.

Click for larger graphic

Next week’s first estimate of December quarter real GDP is likely to be well above the consensus estimate. Although the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate dropped to +3.5%, it still is well above the +1.8% consensus.

Click for larger graphic

The stock market may say: “Oh, good, the economy is stronger than we thought so any recession will be mild.” Or it might say: “Uh-oh, the Fed has to push rates higher and faster than we thought to slow the economy down.” I think the Fed is trapped by the gigantic budget deficit they have to finance, but we will see how this plays out.

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 lost 2.1% since last Thursday but still is up 1.5% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.6% and is up 3.7% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 2.0% but is starting strongest, up 4.4% in 2023.

The fractal dimension still is very consolidated and not near to signaling a new trend. It will come.

According to Goldman Sachs, the buyback blackout due to earnings reports ends on January 27.

Click for larger graphic

Top 5

Changes this week: Added BLPH for midyear Phase 3 results

Near-Term – chronological order
INO Inovio – VGX-3100 HPV Phase 3 results any day
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
BLPH Bellerophon Therapeutics – Phase 3 results midyear
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US

Economy

In July 2009 I wrote an article for SeekingAlpha titled: Why the Recession Is Over. (Don’t miss the comments like “Let’s just chalk this entire post up to…an early morning sniff of ye olde crack pipe. Way to go, Mike!” and “With a post like this, your career should be over.”) My point was that dividing the Conference Board’s Leading Indicators by their Coincident Indicators gives a useful ratio that leads both the Leading Indicators and the stock market.

I also look at the Leading Indicators divided by Lagging Indicators. All eight times it fell 10.6% or more, which is the current decline, we were in a recession at that very moment.

Click for larger graphic

S&P earnings are certain to fall this year, but stocks bottom six to nine months before earnings.

Click for larger graphic

Dollar

Hedge funds continue to increase their shorts against the dollar. That probably means the dollar will strengthen soon, which isn’t good for precious metals.

Click for larger graphic

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Wednesday, January 25
AG – First Majestic – Through 1/27 – TD Securities Mining Conference
Short Interest – After the close

Thursday, January 26
December quarter GDP – 8:30am

Friday, January 27
December Personal Consumption Expenditures – 8:30am

The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 10 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $1.62) dosed the first patient in their Phase 1 stroke trial of intravenous AP-188 (N,N-Dimethyltryptamine or DMT) in the Netherlands.

Algernon’s consultant, Dr. David Nutt, is a Professor of Neuropsychopharmacology in the Division of Brain Science, Department of Medicine, Hammersmith Hospital, Imperial College London. He said: “A significant number of promising stroke drugs have failed because they were focused on trying to be neuroprotective of the brain during a stroke. It appears from the pre-clinical data that DMT is promoting neuroplasticity, a key mechanism in recovery once the stroke has occurred, which is a new and exciting approach to stroke treatment.”

Neuroplasticity is the ability of neural networks in the brain to rewire to function in some way that differs from how they did previously. I have been dealing with this for almost eight years, and I’m convinced that neuroplasticity is the only way to recover from a stroke. If AP-188 can do this, it will be a huge winner. AGNPF is a Hold for the Phase 2b IPF/chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: 2023

Arch Therapeutics (ARTHD$6.07) did a 1-for-200 reverse split and temporarily changed their stock symbol to ARTHD. The number of issued and outstanding shares of common stock was reduced from 249,936,370 to about 1,249,682.

The next steps are (1) uplisting to the Nasdaq National Market, probably in conjunction with (2) an underwritten secondary stock offering, and then – this is vital – (3) releasing good news to make the stock buyers happy. ARTH is a Hold for a buyout.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
   Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2023
   Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2023
   Probable time of next financing: June 2022 quarter

Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.26) completed enrollment earlier than expected in the 145-patient Phase 3 trial of INOpulse for the treatment of fibrotic interstitial lung disease. They will report pivotal top-line results in mid-2023.

The stock jumped in aftermarket trading last night but fell 7.8% today. That’s nuts – I expect success and easy FDA approval. I added it to the short-term Top 5 list. Buy BLPH under $5 for a $30 first target and $100 someday.
Primary Risk: The Phase 3 PH-ILD trial fails or the FDA turns down the INOpulse.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3 data due midyear
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: March 2023 quarter

Invitae (NVTA – $2.41) is up 21% since they preannounced December quarter results at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference last week. Wall Street is getting optimistic on the new management’s ability to trim operating costs while maintaining revenue growth, which would give them a sufficient runway to execute their long-term strategy to become the Amazon of genetic testing. Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
   Clinical stage of lead product: NM
   Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Not needed

Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $135.27) had an all-time high 25% of the smartphone market in the December quarter, according to market research firm Canalys. Behind Apple, Samsung had a 20% market share, Xaiomi got 11%, Oppo came in fourth with 10%, and Vivo had 8%. Worldwide smartphone sales in the quarter fell by 17% from the December 2021 quarter to about 300 million. That brought them in at 1.2 billion for the full year, down 11% from 2021.

Apple introduced two new processors, the M2 Pro and M2 Max. They are in a new Mac mini and a new MacBook Pro. The MacBook Pro features up to 6x faster performance than the fastest Intel-based MacBook Pro, plus the longest battery life ever in a Mac. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Corning (GLW – $35.76) and PGT Innovations collaborated to produce next-generation glass technology, PGT Innovations’ Thin Triple Insulated Glass Unit (Thin Triple IGU) and Diamond Glass, both featuring Corning’s Architectural Technical Glass (ATG). They can produce large sizes of glass while substantially reducing the weight of the finished products. This reduction in weight translates to less fuel consumption during transportation, an easier install process for dealers, and less effort for homeowners to operate their windows and doors.

Goldman Sachs named Corning to its Top 50 list of high return on equity stocks. Goldman said: “An upwards inflection in S&P 500 ROE will be difficult to achieve in 2023, as headwinds from a higher cost of capital and higher taxes will place further strains on profitability…The median stock in the basket is expected to grow ROE in the next 12 months by 12% vs. -6% for the median S&P 500 company.” They cited Corning’s last 12 months ROE of 15% and consensus ROE growth of 7% in 2023. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2023 .

Other Tech

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.79) said the first building for the new Neutron production complex at NASA Wallops is complete. Inside this facility, Neutron’s 7-meter-wide reusable first stage will take shape as they work toward first launch. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,934.60) gained $27.60 today. It is just starting to attract managed money as they both cover shorts and increase longs.

Click for larger graphic

The fractal dimension is headed down towards the 55 level that signals a new trend is underway.

Because it has been so consolidated, it probably will take at least four weeks to get under 55, by which time we are likely to be at or knocking on the door of new all-time highs. Got gold?

Miners & Related

First Majestic (AG – $8.18) said December quarter production fell 14% from the September quarter to 7.6 million silver-equivalent ounces, consisting of 2.4 million silver ounces and 63,039 gold ounces. Total 2022 production reached a new record of 31.3 million silver-equivalent ounces, consisting of 10.5 million silver ounces and 248,394 gold ounces, or a 16% increase compared to 2021.

In 2023, they expect to increase production 12% to another new record of between 33.2 to 37.1 million silver-equivalent ounces, consisting of 10.0 to 11.1 million ounces of silver and 277,000 to 310,000 ounces of gold, with an all-in sustaining cost guidance of between $18.47 to $19.72 per silver-equivalent ounce. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $21,164.59) continued its strong upswing as the chaos in the cryptocurrency exchanges and altcoins calmed down a little. This trend should continue.

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $11.70) got quite a write-up in Nasdaq’s Bitcoin Magazine: Potential Paths Forward For The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. They wrote:

“Another path — the most likely one — is that the GBTC, along with Grayscale’s other trusts, find their way into the hands of a new sponsor and manager. Valkyrie has already proposed to do exactly this:

* * Give an option for investors to redeem shares at NAV through a Regulation M filing request (although it’s not clear a Regulation M request would get approved by the SEC).
* * Lower fees from 200 basis points to 75.
* * Attempt to offer investors redemptions in both cash and spot bitcoin.

The option for a new manager gives investors an opportunity to get out of investments at NAV.”

Valkyrie wrote:
“We at Valkyrie are excited to present our proposal to become the new sponsor and manager of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). As a registered investment advisor and trusted investment manager with extensive experience in the world of bitcoin and cryptocurrency, our company is uniquely qualified to take on this role.

“Valkyrie has a proven track record of success in the realm of digital asset management. Our Bitcoin Trust has operated with daily liquidity since its inception on January 1st, 2021. Later that year, we launched publicly-traded bitcoin-related ETFs and have a strong reputation for working with and caring about our investors and partners.

“In addition to our expertise in digital asset management, we have a team of experienced closed-end fund managers who, while at Guggenheim Partners, launched, managed and even took over a closed-end fund from another manager who let the discount slip well beyond 10% without taking action. We are well-equipped to handle the unique challenges and opportunities presented by GBTC. Our combination of technical and regulatory knowledge and hands-on experience makes us the ideal choice to take on this role.

We are also excited to announce the launch of the Valkyrie Opportunistic Fund, LP that seeks, among other things, to take advantage of the massive discount in the spread between the NAV and price of GBTC. As the fund increases its holdings of GBTC, we are very interested in realizing the true value of the underlying bitcoin for our investors and will actively pursue this goal on their behalf.”

I think we just have to hold on and wait. Getting out at net asset value would create a 64.5% gain from today’s closing price, even if bitcoin was flat. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Oil – $80.46

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais said that the group is cautiously optimistic about oil demand as China opens up again. They believe that a stronger demand outlook for China could offset continued concerns about a global economic slowdown. China’s oil consumption is expected to jump by 800,000 barrels per day this year to a record 16 million bpd, the median estimate of 11 China-focused consultants polled by Bloomberg News last week.

Oil moved up as traders bought oil futures on optimism over China’s reopening. Chinese domestic air traffic before their New Year is sharply higher after two years of pandemic lockdowns. Total open interest in oil futures rose to 5.24 million contracts, the highest since June 20. Holdings are up by about 10% so far this year.

Click for larger graphic

Despite the recent increase, holdings remain about 20% lower than the same time last year. This is not an overbought move yet.

WTI crude oil broke through the 50-day moving average and is targeting the neckline/100dma around $83. The back end of the futures curve is firming up and refinery crack spreads are testing range tops. This is looking like a real move up that could turn into something big.

Click for larger graphic

Last week was the first time since September 2021 that the US didn’t release a single barrel of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The SPR stood unchanged week-on-week at 371.6 million barrels. Got OIL?

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $65.50) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.

The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $30.67) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.

EQT (EQT – $33.93) moved up after a cold snap in Europe led to a surge in electricity prices and an uptick in natural gas prices. The weather fluctuates, so I favor buying dips caused by warmer weather and waiting out spikes caused by colder weather.

Natural gas prices in Europe dropped to a 16-month low due to the strong supply outlook. This is caused by full stockpiles in China, which is forcing Chinese buyers to send LNG cargoes to Europe, combined with the mild weather in Europe. The panic-like situation from last year has been replaced by confidence that Europe will get through this winter without any supply issues. While gas prices have dropped, they are still almost double their five-year average for the time of year.

The bigger picture is that the world needs more natural gas in the future. The Gulf energy ministers said there are a lot of European and Asian buyers, and there is a potential that by the end of this year, the entire Qatar LNG expansion will be sold out.

Baker Hughes reported that the natural gas rig count declined by two rigs last week to 150, the lowest since May 2022. There still are 41 more rigs than last year, but 16 fewer since peaking at 166 in September.

Click for larger graphic

If this trend continues, production growth may slow, but this won’t be clear for four to six months. A lot of gas also comes from shale oil wells, but those are flattening, too.

Goldman Sachs added EQT to its Top 50 list of high return on equity stocks for its consensus ROE growth of 43% in 2023.

Click for larger graphic

Wall Street loves high free cash flow companies – as do I! Buy them before The Street believes it’s real.

Click for larger graphic

EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.51) got a good write-up in SeekingAlpha. They are very leveraged to the price of uranium, which I believe is headed much higher. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

* * * * *

RIP Robbie Bachman

* * * * *

* * * * *

Your better understanding scientific papers Editor, (1.8 million published every year!)

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

$20-for-$1
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.65) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
  Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.26) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.63) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Inovio (INO – $1.68) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $2.41) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.61) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.63) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50

Other Biotech
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $11.82) – Buy under $7, target price $25+

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $135.27) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $35.76) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $83.62) – Buy under $70, target price $100
  Meta (META – $136.15) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.85) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Other Tech
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $38.21) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $9.88) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $26.38) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.11) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.79) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $2.04) – Buy under $6, target price $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($23.99) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $27.51) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $32.51) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $18.61) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $30.75) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.04) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $8.18) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.40) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.89) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $39.99) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $21,164.59) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $11.47) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,552.52) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $7.90) – Buy

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $33.55) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $28.33) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $15.44) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $33.91) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.99) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.08) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Energy
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $65.50) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
  iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $30.67) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
  EQT (EQT – $33.93) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.51) – Buy under $8; $30 target

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $1.62) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.71) – Hold for FDA meeting
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTHD – $6.07) – Hold for buyout
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $1.94) – Hold until they resolve the clinical hold

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

Copyright ©GwynRoseLLC 2023

New World Investor Mastermind Group

1. Post unto others as you would have them post unto you.
2. Keep it clean, like a 1950s family television show. Your alter ego can run free on Twitter.
3. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS! If you don’t like the stock, don’t trash the person. Everyone is responsible for their own due diligence and investments.
4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind. Again, NO PERSONAL ATTACKS!
5. The investment implications of something going on in politics or religion is OK.
6. Of course, there’s never a reason to slur someone based on race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, or country of national origin.
7. Please, no snark!

Print This Post Print This Post
Subscribe
Notify of
25 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

First

MM, this was the reason for the SP declining today for BLPH:

This prospectus supplement amends and supplements the information in the prospectus, dated July 2, 2020, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission as a part of our registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-239473), as previously supplemented by our prospectus supplement dated July 17, 2020 (the “Prior Prospectus”), relating to the offer and sale of up to $40,000,000 of shares of our common stock, $0.01 par value per share, pursuant to the Open Market Sale AgreementSM (the “Sales Agreement”) we previously entered into with Jefferies LLC (“Jefferies”). This prospectus supplement should be read in conjunction with the Prior Prospectus, and is qualified by reference thereto, except to the extent that the information herein amends or supersedes the information contained in the Prior Prospectus. This prospectus supplement is not complete without, and may only be delivered or utilized in connection with, the Prior Prospectus and any future amendments or supplements thereto.
 
Through January 19, 2023, we have not sold any shares of our common stock in accordance with the Sales Agreement under the Prior Prospectus. We are filing this prospectus supplement to amend the Prior Prospectus because we are now subject to General Instruction I.B.6 of Form S-3, which limits the amounts that we may sell under the registration statement of which this prospectus supplement and the Prior Prospectus are a part. After giving effect to these limitations and the current public float of our common stock, and after giving effect to the terms of the Sales Agreement, we currently may offer and sell shares of our common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $6,159,541 under the Sales Agreement. If our public float increases such that we may sell additional amounts under the Sales Agreement and the registration statement of which this prospectus supplement and the Prior Prospectus are a part, we will file another prospectus supplement prior to making additional sales.
 
Our common stock is listed on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol “BLPH.” The aggregate market value of our common stock held by non-affiliates as of January 18, 2023 pursuant to General Instruction I.B.6 of Form S-3 is $18,478,625, which was calculated based on 7,162,258 shares of our common stock outstanding held by non-affiliates and at a price of $2.58 per share, the closing price of our common stock on January 17, 2023. As of the date hereof, we have not offered or sold any securities pursuant to General Instruction I.B.6 of Form S-3 during the prior 12 calendar month period that ends on and includes the date hereof. As a result of the limitations of General Instruction I.B.6 of Form S-3, and in accordance with the terms of the Sales Agreement, we are registering the offer and sale of shares of our common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $6,000,000 from time to time through Jefferies.
 

2nd

Dear Michael, ARTHD (ARTH), at 3 cents you predicted a buyout at .50 cents or a 1.00 dollar. With the reverse split does that buyout become 50 dollars or 100.00 dollars?

GOD Bless,
George

Buyouts DO NOT happen unless the suitor sees growing sales, even from a low level. The sales have been piss poor after many years of promises. There is no sign that this will change. The company will be sold for near zero. The patents are worthless if they cannot generate any sales. Case closed–a complete POS loser, except for TN who has milked shareholders to get his high salary.

Wound products developer Arch Therapeutics files for uplisting, $35M offering (update).

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3927286-wound-products-developer-arch-therapeutics-files-for-uplisting-35m-offering

Last edited 9 days ago by Brent

Has ANY company ever come back from a 1 for 200 reverse spit? Curious.

Arch has essentially started over. They likely have some positive news to release in conjunction with the uplisting. The new leadership team is executing a plan. Time will tell.

Executing a plan? What plan? What execution? If AC5 is so wonderful, it should sell itself. There have been plenty of presentations at meetings over the years. No interest. Potential suitors already do good business with their inferior but accepted products. AC5 is too expensive, etc.

“Uplisting” is a euphemism. Blue chips are listed on major exchanges because they have good businesses. ARTH’s shitty business doesn’t gain standing just because it is on a better exchange than it deserves. And, MM has said that reverse splits almost never work out in raising the market cap of a company.

Sold my small amount of GBTC and bot more BTC. GBTC is probably going to be fine but I don’t fully understand the discount to NAV and that 2% management fee is sketchy at best.

I’m probably crazy but I added to the TSLA position. Tesla reports next week and I really hope it craters so I can buy more.

Ultra bull Dan Ives ( so take it for what it’s worth) wrote:

“Our survey found that 76% of EV Chinese consumers are considering buying a Tesla in 2023, with the nearest domestic competitors BYD [1211.Hong Kong] in second place followed by NIO [ NIO] in third place,” wrote Ives is a Thursday research report.”



The EV transition needs Lithium, lots of it.
Check out Patriot Battery Metals PMETF. They seem to have lots of lithium as the drill results indicate. More drill results pending. This one has a lot of potential for share price appreciation, in my opinion.

Looks like they have found premium grade of Lithium, a jump for their previous gold wildcatting in the USA. But they are far from marketing their winner, as Lithium demand may be superseded by new generations of energy storage systems, such as a testng an electrified train rail system in England.
As final refining of raw Lithiium is locked up by the Chinese, their future may have potholes.

PMETF Yes, they are a very long way from marketing their Li, this is a early in opportunity. They are drilling to define their resource with 5 drill rigs. This entire region is rich with Li and the Canadian Govt is enthusiastically kicking down big $ to assist with the development. This includes processing. There are roads & electric nearby. I’m up 60% in 6 weeks. Hope it can continue.

Anyone have any thoughts on HYDROGEN investments?

Bloom Energy.

But … buying profitless companies in this environment is sketchy.

Expected earnings this year for BE are anywhere from -.37 to +.73. Why BE over BLDP, PLUG, HGEN or HYDR? I know you have studied the sector and I am just now getting interested.

Well I haven’t done a complete sector study but I like Bloom because it’s situated in Silicon Valley and is already doing projects with Amazon and Google.

The big cap tech companies are most likely to push for alternative energy like hydrogen IMO.

But … it might take a while before any of these companies become profitable.

“Disadvantaged is best word” with only one large auto firm interested (and I have driven this make for decades). Check out “Visual Capital” for some details.

Thanks for this good news. Still, if a patient is doing well and happy with Ocrevus, they won’t switch to Briumvi. B has advantages, but it will need a year or so of a track record to show patients and doctors that it is worth switching from O to B. Cost conscious insurers may force the switch, however.

I couldn’t access the SA article you mentioned about the marketing strategy. Could you summarize the main points of the article? Thanks.

Michael Murphy I wanted to say how much I appreciated that excerpt from Martin Luther King’s famous speech. What a tragedy that we keep shooting and killing our best leaders, Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King, John Fitzgerald Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy, Medgar Evers and so many more. I wonder how long this country can endure when we keep killing or voting out our best leaders. Only the young people I sometimes meet or hear about today keeps me hoping and keeps me keeping on. Thank you for inspiring us a little.

Last edited 8 days ago by DonB