Radar Report – 1.12.23

Michael Murphy
Jan 23

Dear New World Investor:

This morning’s Consumer Price Index report showed prices in December increased 6.5% from last year, less than November’s 7.1% year-over-year increase, and decreased 0.1% from November.

But even as price pressures eased from the 9.1% peak of the current inflation cycle, last month’s reading marked the second-hottest December CPI print since 1981, topped only by 7.1% in December 2021.

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The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, climbed 5.7% year-over-year and 0.3% over November. Both the headline and core CPI were in line with expectations. I expect the Fed to keep raising the Fed funds rate, but at a slower rate – just one-fourth of a percent (0.25% or 25 basis points) at each meeting, starting with their January 31/February 1 session. The pivot I predicted last Fall is underway.

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I don’t expect the Fed to actually cut rates until the second half of 2023, but the stock and bond markets are discounting mechanisms that look forward for years. The shelter category of the CPI accounts for 30% of overall CPI and 40% of the core reading. Due to the way it is calculated, it lags the real changes in the market by about six months and the Fed knows it. Shelter increased 7.5% over the last year and 0.8% over November, accounting for more than half of the total core CPI increase.

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A sharp drop in gasoline prices was the main contributor to last month’s slowdown in the monthly reading, more than offsetting the imaginary increases in housing costs. Prices at the pump plunged 9.4% in December after a 2% jump in November. As you know, I expect energy prices to increase steadily in 2023, but the shelter component will drop enough to slow the headline increases and turn the core index mildly negative.

Many of the pandemic/supply chain/shortages-related price increases are unwinding quickly. Wholesale used car prices are down 14.9% year-over-year, the largest annual decline on record.

Also, there was another big drop in price plans in the recent National Federation of Independent Business survey. It looks like disinflation is a done deal. The only question is whether we settle above or below the Fed’s 2% target inflation.

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Housing activity slows. New orders follow. After that, the hiring pace cools. Ultimately, inflation cools down. Every business cycle downturn follows this path, and yet investors will be “surprised” when the US labor market and the CPI materially slow down in a few months.

It’s early days, but 2023 is shaping up to be a flat-out polar opposite of 2022 in terms of the macroeconomic backdrop. The @NDR_Research global recession indicator was basically rising all year last year and has now begun to fall. Historically, the best stock market returns have coincided with high and falling recession risks.

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But timing matters! If there’s no recession in 2023, the lows are behind us. If there is further weakness, we may not see the lows until midyear. Professionals and hedge fund managers have to worry about this. We don’t! Stocks are much cheaper than they were and we can be fully invested now for the inevitable next leg up to 2036.

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Meanwhile, retail investors are still in panic mode.

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The S&P 500 added 4.6% since last Thursday as the “first five days of January” indicator turned very positive. The Nasdaq Composite gained 6.8% as Big Tech rebounded. The small-cap Russell 2000 soared 7.0% in this risk-on environment.

The fractal dimension is just starting to retreat from its dramatic over-consolidation. It won’t be an official uptrend until the fractal dimension falls under 55, but it’s starting to look good.

The S&P 500’s 28% drop last year to the October 13 low puts it right at the average for bear markets and serious corrections of the past 150 years. The same is true for the Price/Earnings ratio draw-down. The question for 2023 is whether this will become a worse-than-average bear cycle.

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What if you invested in the S&P500 every time CNBC tried to panic you with another “the stock market is in turmoil” report? In that case, your average return after one year is +40% with a win rate of 100%.

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Top 5

Changes this week: Removed GRPH from long-term until they resolve the clinical hold

Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
INO Inovio – VGX-3100 HPV Phase 3 results by yearend
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US


The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model increased its estimate for December quarter real GDP to +4.1% due to strength in both personal consumption expenditures and private domestic investment. They are far above the Blue Chip consensus for +1.1%. Look for a big stock market rally on January 26 after the preliminary estimate announcement.

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The rate at which central bank liquidity is being removed from the global financial system in a coordinated fashion is unprecedented.

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Due to this – or something – the newest Federal Reserve Bank of New York consumer survey showed short-term inflation expectations continue to fall. The median expectation is below 5% for the first time since July 2021. The 75th percentile dropped one whole point to 8%. Even the “secular inflation” folks are beginning to see where this is really going.

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New Fed research shows the surge in retirements since 2020 “accounts for essentially all of the shortfall” in labor force participation rates. “More than half of the increase in the number of retirees appears to be a direct result of the pandemic.”

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Coming Events
Quiet, holiday-shortened week.

Monday, January 16
Market Closed – Martin Luther King Day

The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 10 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.


Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

This was the annual Biotech Week in San Francisco. The big JPMorgan Healthcare Conference has attracted the Biotech Showcase and the LifeSci Advisors Corporate Access Event as venues for smaller companies. Torreya Biopharma published an excellent Biopharmaceutical Sector Market Update for the JPMorgan Conference – I’ve extracted some of the best charts.

Biotech had a bad 2021 and a miserable first half of 2022 – no surprise there.

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The XBI has been flat for five years.

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Torreya has a favorable outlook for 2023 based on declining Treasury bill rates. I agree that will happen, but probably not until the second half of the year.

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I expect a big upswing in mergers and acquisitions activity this year. Big Pharma’s pipelines of new drugs are depleted. We got three announcements during Biotech Week: AstraZeneca is buying CinCor Pharma for up to $1.8 billion (CinCor’s shares jumped 144%), Ipsen S.A bought Albireo Pharma (+92%), and Chiesi Farmaceutici S.p.A. is acquiring Amryt Pharma Plc for up to $1.48 billion (+107%).

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This is really interesting. Our recommendations sell at big discount to the average enterprise value of companies at a similar stage of development. That substantially reduces the investment risk.

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This also is really interesting, but more difficult to use. “Quality of Efficacy Data” is a subjective standard and opinions can differ widely. Example: From the first day I saw the data on TG Therapeutics’ multiple sclerosis drug, I was really excited. Six years later, other people are getting excited.

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Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $1.70) said they are planning a 180 patient, 90-day, Phase 2b clinical study of NP-120 (Ifenprodil) for chronic cough to begin in the September quarter. This is the one we’ve been waiting for. The Phase 2a trial of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis and chronic cough showed a significant improvement in 24-hour and waking cough counts in patients after 4 and 12 weeks. Patients with IPF are usually excluded from trials in refractory chronic cough because cough in this population is regarded as extremely difficult to treat.

They appointed Dr. Peter Dicpinigaitis, Professor of Medicine at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine, as a medical consultant to Algernon’s chronic cough research program. He is the founder and director of the Montefiore Cough Center, one of the few specialty centers in the world exclusively committed to the evaluation and management of patients with chronic cough. AGNPF is a Hold for the Phase 2b IPF/chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: 2023

Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.68) presented at both the Biotech Showcase (AUDIO HERE) and the LifeSci Advisors Corporate Access Event. Dr. Rice gave a good background on why acute myeloid leukemia, a very aggressive cancer of the bone marrow and bloodstream, is so hard to treat – every patient has a different pattern or heterogeneity, which is the greatest obstacle to treating them. Tuspetinib, their once-daily oral drug, safely and effectively hits all the major genetic pathways and has Orphan Drug Designation. APTO is a Buy under $2.50 for a $30 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1a
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Mid- to late-2023

Graphite Bio (GRPH – $2.09) dropped after they voluntarily halted their Phase 1/2 safety trial of GPH102 (nula-cel) for sickle cell disease due to a serious adverse event in the first patient dosed. The event was prolonged low blood cell counts (pancytopenia) requiring ongoing transfusion and growth factor support. Although the event did not meet study-stopping requirements, based on evolving clinical data, Graphite Bio decided to voluntarily pause the study.

They are looking at mitigation strategies, including potential modifications to the nula-cel manufacturing process. It is hard to tell right now how difficult this will be to fix. The problem did not show up in all the preclinical work.

If fixing the gene always causes prolonged low blood cell counts, GRPH has a problem. But if they can modify the therapy to fix sickle cell without causing pancytopenia, we’re good. These are the top-quality people working on precision gene editing, so if anyone can find a solution, they can.

I was encouraged by them saying they will identify operational efficiencies to extend their cash position to at least 2026. The 8-K filing added nothing, so we won’t know more until they report December quarter results around mid-March. Meanwhile, competitors CRISPR Therapeutics and Vertex completed their regulatory submissions for exa-cel for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia in the EU and the UK in December. Graphite’s drug is better.

I’m moving GRPH to a Hold until they resolve this problem. After that it will return to a Buy for a $50 target in 2024, $100 in 2026, and then higher.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: 2025

Inovio (INO – $1.91) got a well-balanced SeekingAlpha article concluding “Hold and See: Inovio closed on January 9, 2023, at $1.59, giving it a market capitalization of $397 million. Given the $282 million in cash, that represents very low investor expectations…On the bright side, the results so far from VGS-3100 and INO-3107 have been quite good, so it may just be a matter of time before Inovio finally has commercial products.”

INO is a Buy under $7 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: Mid-2024

Invitae (NVTA – $2.34) announced preliminary December quarter revenues of $122 million, right on analysts estimates of $121.41 million. That brought them in around $516 million for the year, up 12% from $460 million in 2021. Their total active healthcare provider accounts grew 8% from 2021 to about 20,000, while active pharma and commercial partnerships grew 29% to 230. They finished the year with over $555 million in cash. The cash burn was under $80 million, continuing its declining trend for the fifth straight quarter.

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At the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), the new management team continued to focus on their plan to cut costs and get cash-flow positive while continuing to target the winner-take-most position in genetic medicine. Their catchphrase is: “Same Mission, New Path.” They’ve now treated 3.62 million patients:

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In spite of the cost-cutting and focus on profitable growth, they continue a high rate of innovation with numerous new and enhanced products to be introduced:

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Management concluded: “So if there are three things I would want you to take away from today, they would be the following: First, Invitae is moving from a broad, somewhat disconnected, portfolio of individual tests to an integrated and connected portfolio of solutions. In that regard, patient service, valuable and rich data, sales and marketing synergies are how we are building our competitive advantage.

“Secondly, our business model is evolving to unlock profitable growth. With customer experience adoption, partnership value, and clinical insights and solutions as growth levers, balanced against reimbursement cash flow and affordability. What’s great is our team is up to the challenge and early results are demonstrating that we are all in and making great progress.

“Finally, we have an incredibly talented group of engineers and scientists at Invitae, who, when focused, have shown they can do big things. Moving forward, our innovation efforts will focus on offering integrated solutions for our customers in addition to going after big opportunities with the potential for long-term growth and healthy margin profile for the Company. So strategically, this probably makes sense.

“But a question might be, how are you executing against your road map? Well, we rolled out our realignment plan in July 2022, and we continue to be on track for the cash burn reduction and gross margin objectives we laid out. Our portfolio is stabilizing. And we’re moving on from the business lines that we had planned to exit. Profitable growth is the foundation on which we built our plans for 2023 and beyond.”

Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
   Clinical stage of lead product: NM
   Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Not needed

ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.83) posted a new corporate presentation marking the new president, Dr. David Angulo, and the new focus on fungal infections in hospitalized patients:

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The news coming this year will be a partner for Brexafemme, the invasive aspergillosis Phase 2 data in the first half of the year, and the Phase 2 IV trial start in midyear. In the first half of 2024, we’ll get a flood of crucial data, with FDA approvals in the second half of the year.

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The company had $96.1 million in cash at the end of September, enough to carry them into the June 2024 quarter before any upfront payment from Brexafemme licenses. Buy SCYX under $2 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: late-2022
   Probable time of next financing: second half of 2023 or never

Biotech MegaShift

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $13.20) moved up to a 52-week high after Board of Directors member Dr. Yann Echelard bought 9,000 shares at $10.64 apiece for $95,800, increasing his stake by about 5%. Interestingly, he is an Operating Partner at Flagship Pioneering, the investor behind COVID-19 vaccine maker Moderna (MRNA).

BioSci Capital Partners wrote a positive SeekingAlpha article focused on TG’s launch strategy for Briumvi, the just-approved multiple sclerosis drug. Buy TGTX under $7 for a target price in a buyout of $25 or more now that the MS drug is approved.
Primary Risk:Briumvi, the MS drug, fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: March 2023 quarter

Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $133.41) is about to open several Apple Stores in India, their first brick-and-mortar outlets in the world’s second-largest smartphone market. Mumbai and New Delhi should be open by midyear.

At the same time, Tata Group is close to taking over a major plant in southern India owned by Taiwan’s Wistron Corp. in a deal that would give India its first homegrown iPhone maker. India had strict requirements for foreign companies, which prevented Apple from having a significant presence in the country. iPhones were to be made in India and 30% of products sold in stores were also to be made there. This last requirement will be dropped if Apple begins manufacturing the iPhone locally, presumably with Tata. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $85.72) presented at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). The focus was on their transformation from an antiviral (hepatitis C and HIV) company to an oncology powerhouse.

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They plan to bring 10+ transformative therapies (each a blockbuster drug with over $1 billion in revenues) to patients by 2030, and that’s why you want to own GILD. Plus you get a 3.3% dividend yield while you wait! In 2022 they paid $3.7 billion in dividends, bought back $1.4 billion in stock, and still repaid $1.5 billion in debt. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $70 for a first target of $100.

Meta Platforms (META – $136.71) introduced a new heart rate tracking feature and Health Connect by Android integration on its Meta Quest 2 virtual reality headset, so users can keep track of all their fitness stats. They can box in Liteboxer, shoot hoops in Basketball VR, or play tennis in Racket: Nx.

In a recent JPMorgan survey, 41% of respondents named Meta as the company they expect will perform the best this year. It is expected to be the top-performing megacap internet stock this year. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.

Other Tech

QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.06) gave a really excellent presentation at the Needham Growth Conference (VIDEO HERE and SLIDES HERE). Don’t miss it! The company has expanded its sales funnel from around $110 million at the end of the September quarter to a substantially higher level. They are hiring salespeople and expecting 40% revenue growth and pro forma profitability in 2023.

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They are emphasizing the aerospace, defense, Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence, machine language, and security markets. At the same time, they will transition from the predominantly royalty model to finished goods, where they see multiple $100 million market opportunities,

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CEO Brian Faith has done an amazing, very underappreciated revitalization at QuickLogic. This is going to be a business school case. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.83) said the delayed launch window for its first Electron mission from US soil is scheduled to open on January 23 with back-up dates extending through early February.

RKLB is much more than a launch company. For example, SpaceX launched 40 low-earth orbit satellites for OneWeb’s global connectivity satellite fleet. Every satellite is powered by Rocket Lab solar cells. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Velo3D (VLD – $2.04) did a fireside presentation at the Needham Growth Conference ( VIDEO HERE). They’ve landed an automotive customer with a strong use case and will now use their “land and expand” strategy to find other applications for this customer as well as penetrate competitors.

The company hired Dr. Robin Stamp, a Principal Engineer at SpaceX, as Director of Solutions Engineering to help grow the adoption of Velo3D’s metal additive manufacturing technology with new customers and in new industries. He will oversee the development of new standards with regulatory agencies, qualification of new metal alloys for use in the Sapphire family of printers, and the collaboration with partners and agencies. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,900.20) hit an eight-month high today after the CPI report suggested the Fed can be a little less aggressive and therefore the dollar will continue to weaken against the euro because the European Central Bank is way behind the curve.

The Bank of China alone bought gold over the last two months at an annual rate of over 350 tons. There are lots of other buyers globally, which helps explain why gold is doing so well without the involvement of Western institutional investors and traders (that’s still to come). This is likely the beginning of a huge run, as markets start pricing in the reality the US inflation rate won’t return to 2% for the remainder of this decade.

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The gold fractal dimension, like the S&P, is just starting to retreat from its dramatic over-consolidation. It also won’t be an official uptrend until the fractal dimension falls under 55, but it’s starting to look very good. There’s plenty of energy to get near the all-time highs even before the uptrend officially starts. $2,500, anyone? Do I hear $3,000?

Miners & Related

Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.81) announced record fourth quarter and full-year production and sales. December production jumped 31% from last year to 21,800 attributable gold equivalent ounces, generating $38.4 million in revenues compared with $29.8 million in the December 2022 quarter.

For the full year, they sold 82,400 attributable gold ounces, up 22% from 2021, generating $148.7 million in revenues in 2022 compared with $114.9 million in the prior year.

Their preliminary cost of sales for 2022 totaled $23.4 million, resulting in cash operating margins of $1,511 per gold equivalent ounce, compared with 2021 results of $16.8 million and $1,539 per ounce. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.


Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $18.859.50) started a sharp move up Sunday and broke out of its crypto crash/FTX scam doldrums. It should run much higher pretty quickly.

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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC. and ETHE all are Strong Buys. I still like the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $10.49) best, even though its discount to net asset value has shrunk from 45%-48% to 38%-39%. The FUD around their bitcoin holdings is being replaced by Wall Street sharks realizing Digital Currency Group might allow redemptions to maximize the value of their bitcoin holdings, or the SEC might allow a transition to an exchange-traded fund, or some other event will amortize the discount. Free money does not last long on Wall Street. Get it while you can. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. According to The Wall Street Journal, a top Chinese official, Guo Shuqing (Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the party secretary of the People’s Bank of China), said authorities have wrapped up investigations into the financial businesses of several Internet companies, a strong signal that a two-year regulatory crackdown on China’s homegrown technology giants is winding down. He said the government had concluded a campaign to “rectify the financial businesses of 14 platform companies” with only minor problems left to be resolved. He added that officials would look to provide more support to tech companies and work toward making supervision of the tech sector more predictable going forward.

That is great news for our China recommendations. The EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $33.73) is a Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months.

KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $27.84) is a Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold.

Morgan Stanley China A-Share Closed-End Fund (CAF – $15.14) is a Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold.

KraneShares CSI China Internet Exchange-Traded Fund (KWEB – $34.38) is a Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years.
Primary Risk of all four of these: China falls into a recession.

Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.83) started adult-use sales in Connecticut on Tuesday. ACRDF is a buy under $2 for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Canopy Growth does not acquire the company.

Oil – $78.26

Oil is up 6.2% from last Thursday. This week, global air travel exceeded 2019 levels for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. There is much more to come soon as Chinese flights continue to rebound sharply. JPMorgan wrote: “Oil markets are awaiting a return from the Chinese New Year before experiencing a sustainable rally. Combine this increase in demand with a potential OPEC+ cut next month (400,000-500,000 barrels per day effective cut) and there is limited downside from here.”

Because of the ongoing refinery outages, while crude storage is building, gasoline storage is starting 2023 at the lowest level in years.

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The Biden Administration asked for tenders for three million barrels of oil to start refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in February. All the offers were rejected as too high. I expect the rejected offers to be the lowest they’ll ever see. After all, they have massive competition as China reopens its borders.

Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said full reopening of the Chinese economy could send oil prices past $140 per barrel assuming there will be no more lockdowns, and the market is underestimating the scale of the demand boost. He sees the possibility of crude oil demand growing by more than four million barrels per day this year – a 4% increase over last year that far exceeds crude demand growth expected by other oil market forecasters. Undoubtedly he’s talking his book, but I think he is directionally right.

Goldman Sachs said solid growth in global oil demand is set to drive oil prices above $100 this year and Brent Crude could trade at $105 per barrel by the December quarter. They think world oil demand is set to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2023 and the market will return to a deficit in the second half of the year.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $67.15) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.

The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $29.71) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.

EQT (EQT – $34.96) has been under pressure because natural gas prices have slipped due to increased production and warmer-than-normal temperatures, especially in Europe. The mean temperature in Northwest Europe has been above the 30-year average since December 22. But after this prolonged period of spring-like temperatures that have crushed gas and electricity demand, forecasters say it will revert to “normal” around January 16. Now is the time to Buy EQT under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

* * * * *

It’s great to have your files (photos, documents, more) “in the cloud” for easy access, but another name for “cloud” is “someone else’s computer” — and when it’s someone else’s computer, you have to play by their rules, which may include: “Oh, we deleted everything.”

Don’t roll your eyes: it happens, even on Google, for sometimes surprising reasons. ALWAYS have your own copy of important things. 1TB SSD drives are less than $100 now. More from the New York Times: Your Memories. Their Cloud. You should find it sobering. (h/t This is True.)

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Getting Off The Train: The guitarists’ guitarist, Jeff Beck

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Your reading Howard Marks Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.68) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
  Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.33) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.25) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $2.09) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
  Inovio (INO – $1.91) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $2.34) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.60) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.83) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50

Other Biotech
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $13.20) – Buy under $7, target price $25+

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $133.41) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $36.54) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $85.72) – Buy under $70, target price $100
  Meta (META – $136.71) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $23.04) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Other Tech
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $35.33) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $9.62) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $27.29) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.06) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.83) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $2.04) – Buy under $6, target price $50

  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($23.92) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $27.58) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $33.02) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $18.50) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $30.93) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.74) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $8.85) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.40) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.81) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $40.39) – Buy under $40, target price $70

  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $18.859.50) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $10.49) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,420.618) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $7.40) – Buy

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $33.73) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $27.84) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $15.14) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $34.38) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.83) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.09) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $67.15) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
  iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $29.71) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
  EQT (EQT – $34.96) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.84) – Buy under $8; $30 target

These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $1.70) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.69) – Hold for FDA meeting
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.03) – Hold for buyout

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First. Good read

Great RR . MM . Thanks

Howard Marks at the end of RR is excellent. Recommended reading.

MM – whys is INO still a Top 5 near term buy? You said results would drive price by year end, so needs updating, then below you say we are waiting for launch of commercial products. So…what exactly is the next catalyst and when?

Adding to the metal meme post.


Lithium has and will continue to climb as EVs continue their climb and eventual dominance.

I like ALB a lot. Worth a look .. not today though.

Tesla is cutting prices and killing all other manufacturers in production. If you missed TSLA the first time, here is a great opportunity IMO.

Adding to MMs comment about storing photos and documents on the cloud … make sure to take your BTC offline as well.

As to TSLA, looking at his talk at the recent shareholders meeting shows his plan for a better world, with special interest in his full plans for “world expansion” to every continent. Note the Berlin plant topics.
As to ALB, study also the unusual pairing with a Chilian based “twin” listed on the NYSE as well as their world operations and the collision with China about Australia which holds most of the earths supply. Use their filings using their annual reports in the Chile English annual version and drop by “Visual Capital” for more details of Australian and China domination in mineral supply and processing.

I thought you might like this visually spectacular version of Balakirev’s Islamey I found on youtube:

along with this comment about Liszt:
” There is also a story about how Liszt once heard Rubinstein play this composition. Shortly afterwards, Liszt himself sat down at the piano and on the first listen played this composition, according to Anton Rubinstein who was present and a shocked Balakirev, Liszt played it correctly. This is one of the reasons why Liszt is considered by many to be the greatest pianist of all time. And it’s no wonder, because according to research, Liszt’s hands were built in such a way that he had to have perfect dynamics. Besides, it was said about Liszt that he NEVER made mistakes while playing.”

Go oil. The house voted to stop draining the SPR and to stop the Biden administration from selling that oil to China. That combined with the great earnings from oil companies coming up will push oil stocks higher.

Unfortunately for your thesis, the Senate will kill the bill. Got solar?

Golf clap to MM. Looks like he added GBTC at the bottom. That discount is draining rapidly though. I broke down and bot a bit of GBTC at around 10 bucks.

I also added to my cold storage wallet. BTC is going parabolic and you know what that usually means.

We’ll see.

wow Michael, I believe that is the first ever compliment you’ve given MM – worthy of noting, its a new year!

Not true. I applauded him when that prostate cancer drug got approved in 2009 or so. I’ve been around here a long time.

What was the name of that company? Seems like 100 years ago.

Unfortunately, MM never called a sell on that company and it went to zero as I recall.

GBTC is probably a good call for people not comfortable or able to buy actual sats but remember it’s a BTC IOU with a 2% management fee.

DNDN. Oldie but goodie.

DNDN was a good run.

Great Radar Report MM – Thanks for the videos as well!

June option activity on SCYX. 7.5 calls 330 contracts today. No other option activity so to speak. Something happening or is someone throwing money away.

MM, email response from MDNA that I sent regarding MDNA55 and R/S:

Dear Doug,
Thank you for reaching out and for being a shareholder in Medicenna. We were at the JP Morgan healthcare conference this week in San Francisco so apologies for the late reply.
We continue to be in active discussions around partnering MDNA55. It has taken longer than we had originally anticipated as it is a very difficult indication to develop. We will update the market as soon as we can regarding a potential transaction.
In terms of a reverse split, we have until April 2023 to comply with the $1.00 price target, and we intend to apply for a 6 month extension which would take us into October 2023. We have multiple data readouts prior to that which we hope will move the stock well past $1.00 and remove the need for a reverse split. It is something that we are watching closely.

Elizabeth Williams / Chief Financial Officer 
ewilliams@medicenna.com / 416-648-5555

Medicenna Therapeutics 
2 Bloor St. W, 7th Floor 
Toronto, ON M4W 3E2 

Press Releases :: Arch Therapeutics, Inc. (ARTH)

Arch Announces One-for-Two-Hundred Reverse Stock Split in Connection with Application for Uplisting to a National Exchange. Just so no one gets too excited tomorrow morning at the open.

Last edited 1 year ago by ROGERinSEATTLE

Just are there any unit shareholders outside of the company who would have any full shares? I hate to say this is not the first time it has happened,,,,,,,,,,,,

This is the worst reverse split in my memory of all investing. A desperate POS company. I used to follow ordinary shares on the Hong Kong exchange. They were priced in pennies. That was honest and without shame. No stupid bureaucratic requirements to have a stock above a dollar just to be on an exchange. Companies play financial games instead of productively attending to their business.

And most likely Terry norchi will issue shares for 5.25 a piece to keep their salaries going,what a joke

Michael are you expecting TGTX to drop below $7.00 before we should buy it? It has fallen recently but not close to that price . It has that MS drug approved isn’t that worth a new buy price ?

Last edited 1 year ago by Don Bennett

MM–could you summarize the SA article you posted on TGTX’s marketing strategy? SA isn’t worth the monthly subscription price once the free trial expires or they give you a small monthly allowance of free articles.

Is TGTX going to be another loser? Its dropping like a rock now. shall we sell and wait for the bottom under 7.00 ?

Don, my feeling is that long term, TGTX will be one of the very few great winners in NWI. Played right, along with DNDN and ARNA, it will redeem my losses with other NWI stocks.

TGTX has perhaps the best drug for MS. The risk is whether patients who are already doing OK on established drugs will be switched to TGTX’s drug. MM should critically assess their marketing plan. Sales will be slow at first, and the stock price may tumble to 5-7. That will be a buying opportunity for the long term. If you are a skilled trader, you could sell now and wait to re-enter. You could sell call options, but the risk is that your stock will be called away, and then you have the problem of how to re-enter.

This is one of the few NWI stocks where buy and hold is a good strategy. So far, today’s plunge looks like a small correction in the context of an excellent chart since approval. If it goes below 10, depending on the marketing, we will decide whether to buy more or just hold what we have. I would not sell now, but that’s just me.

OPEX is on Friday. Somebody driving it down to make those calls expire worthless after the big run up. I would just hold. It’s a long term winner.

I like PMETF Patriot Battery Metals. Primarily a lithium explorer sitting on a district wide property near Quebec., which they own 100%.
Results are coming in from aggressive drill program which are very good. Stock is up 20% today. Can be volatile. Be patient. GLTA