Dear New World Investor:

We ended 2022 and started 2023 with very mixed economic messages. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index came in cooler than expected, rising 0.1% in November from October when the consensus estimate was for 0.2% growth. Year-over-year, the PCE price index rose 5.5%, matching estimates. But the core PCE price index came in a bit hotter than expected, rising 4.7% year-over-year versus the 4.6% estimate.

Yesterday’s Institute for Supply Management manufacturing data for December pretty much settled the recession debate. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell 0.6 percentage points to 48.4% in December from November. The December PMI was the lowest reading since it was 43.5% in May 2020. Of the 18 industries, just two reported any growth, and 13 are in contraction. We last saw a gap like this in April 2020. After 29 consecutive months of growth, December was the first month since May 2020 that ISM data showed the overall economy shrank.

Yet the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, updated this morning, still forecasts 3.8% real GDP growth in the December quarter, far above the 1.1% consensus.

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We’ll get the December payrolls number tomorrow, with +200,000 expected, down from November’s +263,000. But today’s ADP survey showed private payrolls rose 235,000 in December, much more than the 150,000 expected. Weekly jobless claims fell to a three-month low, pointing to continued tightness in the labor market despite higher interest rates. Yet we know large layoffs continue, leading to conflicting headlines like this morning:

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All of this data is subject to substantial revision in the future, especially the payroll data. I think the real situation is that we are in a mild recession that will continue through the first half of 2023. President Biden’s $1.7 trillion budget has a deficit that can only be financed by the Fed creating money, so a “soft pivot” is likely by midyear. The real estate portion of the Consumer Price Index will fall steadily (another CPI report comes next Thursday), somewhat offsetting energy-related increases.

What happens to stocks depends on earnings and valuation. I think the most likely path in 2023 will be for S&P 500 earnings to fall about 5% with a forward Price/Earnings ratio of 18x-19x, leading to a fair value today of 3780 to 3990 – about where we are.

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So 2023 will be a stock-picker’s market, with companies that can do well in this environment posting substantial capital gains as investor capital flows towards them.

The S&P 500 lost 0.4% since December 22. The Index was down 19.4% in 2022. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.6% and was down 33.1% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 was flat since December 22 and down 21.6% in 2022.

The fractal dimension continues to consolidate with enough energy to support a really big move – up or down. Most trends resume in the same direction they were going when the consolidation started – in this case, down. The hardest and most lucrative ones to call are the reversals. I think this will be one – a breakout, not a breakdown – and it could start anytime.

Top 5

Changes this week: Removed TGTX – they got FDA approval

Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
INO Inovio – VGX-3100 HPV Phase 3 results overdue
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US

2022 Performance

The Nasdaq Composite fell 33.1% in 2022 and so did New World Investor. That means I underperformed the S&P 500 and, for the first time, have an average loss (-5.1%) from the date of my Buy recommendations.

The core of the problem was, as I’m sure you know, biotech. The iShares Biotech (IBB) of larger companies was down only 14.0% for the year, but the SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI) of smaller stocks was down 25.9%. In spite of a couple of buyouts (ATRS, BDSI), my recommendations did much worse than that, down 46.5%. FDA turndowns at Akebia (AKBA) and TG Therapeutics (TGTX) certainly didn’t help, but the weakness was widespread as investors turned their backs on development-stage companies. Most of my recommendations are funded through 2023 with significant clinical progress and approvals coming, so I expect a much better year,

The Dominators did better than most tech stocks, with the exception of Meta (META). I believe the metaverse will be a huge opportunity for them and maintain both a near-term and long-term Buy. The Content recommendations – smaller, mostly unprofitable tech stocks – were crushed. All of them will show continued rapid revenue growth in 2023.

The Hyperinflation stocks, mostly precious metals, did much worse than I expected in an inflationary environment. Rising interest rates causing a strong dollar weighed on them, but 2023 is likely to see the Fed admit defeat in their inflation fight as they fund the Federal deficit. I think that admission will come in a decision to allow 4% inflation “temporarily.” That should cause an explosion in gold and silver prices.

Cryptos were torpedoed in 2022, first by rising interest rates and then by exchange bankruptcies and the FTX fraud. Bitcoin still has doubled from my Buy recommendation and ethereum is up over 150%. As you know, I think you should take advantage of the FUD to buy the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). I am.

The International & Other stocks were weighed down by Xi Jinping’s attacks on Chinese tech stocks and his bizarre Zero-COVID policy. Those are reversing rapidly and Chinese stocks have started recovering.

As for oil and energy, I think the outlook is very bright for many years to come. All in all, it was a tough year but I am in this for the long haul to the 2036 peak and still believe these are the stocks that will outperform in 2023.

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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, January 6
December payrolls – 8:30am – +200,000 expected; November was +263,000

Monday, January 9
APTO – Aptose Therapeutics – LifeSci Advisors Corporate Access Event
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 1:30pm – JPMorgan Healthcare Conference

Tuesday, January 10
APTO – Aptose Therapeutics – 1:00pm – Biotech Showcase
QUIK – QuickLogic – 3:45pm – Needham Growth Conference

Wednesday, January 11
NVTA – Invitae – 12:00pm – JPMorgan Healthcare Conference
Short Interest – After the close

Thursday, January 12
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am – Event

The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.

The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a better strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $1.67) set up a subsidiary, Algernon NeuroScience, to pursue the psychedelic DMT stroke program. Algernon valued the DMT program at $20 million. (As if! The whole company is only valued at $4 million.) They transferred all the DMT research program assets and trademarks into the subsidiary and signed a management agreement to provide all day-to-day operations, as well as management of the DMT stroke clinical trial program.

Why do this? Because now they will do a Reg A offering for $10 million tor 37.5% of the company and try to tap the Silicon Valley seed capital pools and accredited investors. The money should take them through Phase 1 and 2a trials, at which time they could take the subsidiary public in 2024. Pretty clever, if it works. AGNPF is a Hold for the Phase 2b IPF/chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: 2022

Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.65) presents next week at what has turned into the annual Biotech Week in San Francisco. The big JPMorgan Healthcare Conference (which I used to go to every year when it was the Hambrecht & Quist Conference – JPMorgan bought them) has attracted the Biotech Showcase and the LifeSci Advisors Corporate Access Event as venues for smaller companies. Aptose will present at both of those. APTO is a Buy under $2.50 for a $30 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1/2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Mid- to late-2023

Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.03) filed their 10-K. After selling only $6,261 of AC5 in the June quarter they sold only $1,566 in the September quarter, bringing them in at $15,652 for the year. That’s about the biggest flop you’ll ever see. I’m sure Terry Norchi thought people might not want to have their feet amputated, or doctors might try to avoid amputations. I thought the same thing, but apparently we were wrong.

The net loss of $5.28 million in fiscal 2022 was less than the net loss of $6.24 million on fiscal 2021, but that still means ARTH finished the year with only $746,940 in cash. I expect that is gone by now as they obviously have been selling stock in the open market to fund operations.

Norchi may try a Hail Mary pass – do a 1-for-400 reverse split, uplist to Nasdaq, and raise institutional money, but that only works when you follow through with good news, like a European license. The alternative is to sell the company cheaply, for 50¢ or $1 a share, which is what I expect in 2023. ARTH is a Hold for a buyout.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
   Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2023
   Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2023
   Probable time of next financing: June 2022 quarter

Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.29) jumped 160% today on the news they licensed the Chinese rights to INOpulse to Baylor Biosciences for $6 million upfront plus 5% royalties. Those are low rates but realistic in light of China’s history of ignoring intellectual property rights.

More important, Ted Wang, a co-founder of Baylor BioSciences, is a member of Bellerophon’s Board of Directors and is a significant shareholder of both Bellerophon and Baylor Biosciences. He knows as much about how the clinical trials are going as anyone. I doubt he’d tell Baylor to spend $6 million unless he was very sure the trials will be successful. Buy BLPH under $5 for a $30 first target and $100 someday.
Primary Risk: The Phase 2b PH-ILD trial fails or the FDA turns down the INOpulse.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2 transitioning to Phase 3 in the March quarter
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2021
   Probable time of next financing: March 2023 quarter

Medicenna (MDNA – $0.63) got an important US patent for treating cancer with an IL-2 Superkine such as MDNA11 combined with a checkpoint inhibitor, as planned in Medicenna’s on-going ABILITY clinical trial, or as a single agent using their BiSKIT (Bifunctional SuperKine for ImmunoTherapy) platform. The patent extends into 2039. Buy MDNA under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: March 2024

Biotech MegaShift

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $10.23) got approval for Briumvi for multiple sclerosis, as I predicted when I recommended the stock in 2016. TG will launch Briumvi with an experienced in-house team. But TGTX is a Lindsay Rosenwald company, and even though he is no longer an officer or director, he is a wheeler-dealer. I expect him to sell TGTX to a Big Pharma buyer in 2023. Buy TGTX under $7 for a target price in a buyout of $25 or more now that the MS drug is approved.
Primary Risk: FDA turns the MS drug down.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Filed for approval.
   Probable time of next FDA approval: September 28, 2022
   Probable time of next financing: March 2023 quarter

Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $125.02) started to move up after Foxconn said their iPhone manufacturing plant in Zhengzhou, China, is operating at roughly 90% of its capacity levels with about 200,000 workers. There is plenty of demand for iPhone 14 and Apple may say positive things about March quarter sales in the December quarter earnings conference call on February 2. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $85.85) is pushing further into immunotherapies for rheumatoid arthritis and lupus with a licensing agreement with EVOQ Therapeutics. EVOQ’s NanoDisc technology enables lymph-targeted delivery of disease-specific antigens, which Gilead thinks has the potential to change the paradigm for the treatment of autoimmune diseases. Gilead already has another drug in Phase 1 trials for both rheumatoid arthritis and lupus.

RBC Capital Markets downgraded GILD from Outperform to Sector Perform, thinking the stock is likely to settle in a new range following the 40% gain from its September lows. But they kept their $87 target price.

I know how this happens – been there, done that. In a brokerage firm morning meeting, the head of sales will say to the analyst: “Hey, Gilead’s up 40% from the September lows. How much more can it go?”

Analyst: “Probably not much for now. It’s near my $87 target. I don’t want to raise it until I see more drivers.”

Followed by every broker running out of the room to call their institutional clients with a “Heads up, we think Gilead is fully valued here. Time to lighten up.”

Then the sell tickets hit the trading room floor where, almost magically, the traders have been shorting Gilead since they ran out of the room. As GILD drops they give the institutions a great execution, only pennies below the last trade, and everyone high-fives another profitable day.

All we have to do is play a different game. We bought a ton of GILD under $70. Now we just have to wait. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $70 for a first target of $100.

Meta Platforms (META – $126.94) will be a major beneficiary of augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and the metaverse. According to IDC, spending on AR and VR in 2022 hit $13.8 billion. It will grow 32.3% per year to $50.9 billion in 2026. Virtual Reality, where Meta is a leader, will account for 70% of AR/VR spending in 2022-2026 period.

Augmented Reality investments for industrial maintenance and training will account for almost 1/3 of all AR-related spending. Virtual Reality investments for training and collaboration will account for nearly 44% of the market by 2026.

Consumer use for gaming is expected to be 25% of all AR/VR spending. The fastest-growing applications to 2026 are projected to be emergency response 82.9%, augmented reality games 57.8%, internal videography 47.8%, and collaboration 42.7%. There are 16 other use cases expected to grow 30% or more.

IDC expects large-scale spending from discrete manufacturing, healthcare providers, professional services, education, and retail. The strongest spending growth is expected in healthcare, telecommunications, state/local government, and utilities. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,838.20) hit a six-month high yesterday before being kneecapped by the hawkish Fed minutes yesterday and ADP payroll numbers today. Traders are knee-jerk responding to any signs of economic strength as bad news because that means more Fed pressure and a stronger dollar. If my economic outlook is right – a mild recession and a pivoting Fed – precious metals should soar in 2023.

The fractal dimension finally is falling, but it has a long way to go to break below the 55 level and signal a new trend. Gold is likely to be near all-time highs just as the uptrend signals. This could be the big one.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $16,846.35) is basically unchanged since Thanksgiving, after recovering from the FTX-inspired drop to just over $15,000 on November 21.

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Do you think you have “missed” bitcoin. That couldn’t be further from the truth. So far, bitcoin does roughly a 10x after every halving of the block rewards. There are many halvings to go, and 10x10x10x10x= A Lot. Your great-grandchildren will revere you.

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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $8.45) is selling at a 45% discount from net asset value. The markets don’t often give you free money. Take it. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. Chinese stocks are having a massive rally and all four of my fund recommendations are under their buy limits.

EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $32.75) is a Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months.

KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $26.46) is a Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold.

Morgan Stanley China A-Share Closed-End Fund (CAF – $14.94) is a Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold.

KraneShares CSI China Internet Exchange-Traded Fund (KWEB – $34.76) is a Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years.
Primary Risk of all four: China falls into a recession.

Oil – $73.90

Saudi crude exports are pretty strong. As an oil bull, I don’t really want them to have cut a lot of production. Why? Because if they really did cut oil production in November and December, and prices still dropped, then the implied supply-demand balance is weaker than I thought.

But the reality is that there’s been no real cut yet. OPEC’s production for the month of December increased by 150,000 barrels per day over November, thanks to Nigeria’s crude oil production hitting an eight-month high of 1.35 million barrels per day. But at the end of the day, exports are the only thing that matters. When I see a meaningful drop in OPEC+ exports, then I’ll believe the production cut. So far, there has been no meaningful drop.

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Russia is guiding to a production loss of 500,000 to 700,000 barrels a day. In addition, they will not sell oil to any country imposing the price cap, even thought Russian crude is selling below the price cap. OPEC+ is targeting an implied production cut of 800,000 to 1,000,000 barrels a day, so what we end up with is a timing issue. Supply is about to be cut and demand, especially with China reopening, continues to grow.

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $65.00) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.

The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.97) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.

EQT (EQT – $32.08) pulled back as natural gas prices slipped a bit due to a warmer-than-expected start to winter in large parts of the world, especially Europe but even in the US. Good! I set my buy limit right where the stock closed the day I recommended it, and this dip driven by short-term traders gives long-term investors an excellent entry point. EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.

* * * * *

RIP Anita Pointer

* * * * *

Your reading about ideological capture Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

$20-for-$1
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.65) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
  Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.29) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.42) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.06) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
  Inovio (INO – $1.57) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $1.90) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.53) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.59) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50

Other Biotech
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $10.23) – Buy under $7, target price $25+

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $125.02) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $34.39) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $85.85) – Buy under $70, target price $100
  Meta (META – $126.94 – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $21.34) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Other Tech
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $37.31) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $8.24) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $23.76) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.21) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.17) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $1.78) – Buy under $6, target price $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($23.38) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $26.43) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $31.24) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $17.87) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $29.48) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.53) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $8.67) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.38) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.70) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $36.95) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $16,846.35) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $8.45) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,253.48) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $5.37) – Buy

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $32.75) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $26.46) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $14.94) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $34.76) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.84) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.06 – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Energy
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $65.00) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
  iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.97) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
  EQT (EQT – $32.08) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.03) – Buy under $8; $30 target

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $1.67) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.67) – Hold for FDA meeting
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.03) – Hold for buyout

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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