Dear New World Investor:
The S&P 500 lost 3.8% since last Thursday as fears of interest rate increases, the omicron virus, and war in Ukraine ebbed and flowed. The Index is down 5.9% year-to-date.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 4.4% as its advance/decline line registered a net negative reading for nine of the last ten days. We’ve seen this movie before. The Nasdaq has imploded at the beginning of the year three out of the last four years. The only year it didn’t was 2019 when the market imploded in December 2018. The Naz is down 9.5% for the year.
The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 6.3% and is down 9.9% in 2022, almost in correction territory.
After the dot-com crash and recession, the Fed raised rates for the first time in July 2004. The S&P rallied for years after that rate hike. There were 17 rate hikes from July 2004 through August 2006. The S&P 500 rallied the whole way to October 2007. If you sold stocks after the first rate hike, you missed over three years of double-digit gains.
After the subprime recession, the Fed kept rates near zero from December 2008 through November 2015. After the first rate hike in December 2015, the Fed steadily raised rates through July 2019. The S&P ran up 80% to a peak in early 2020 – a peak that was caused by the virus and lockdowns, not the Fed. Stocks go up for years after the first Fed rate hike.
In February 2000 at a MoneyShow panel in Orlando, I said Intel was overpriced and should be sold. The audience booed. Bull markets don’t end when people are fearful, they end when almost everyone is bullish and there’s nobody left to buy.
The BofA global managers survey for December showed managers increased their cash position from 4.4% in November to 5.1% in December – the highest level since May 2020. They had similar levels of cash in 2012, 2015 through 2017, and early 2019 – all excellent times to buy stocks. As that cash comes back into the market, the S&P will go higher.
Tomorrow, just like last January, deep in the money calls worth over $125 billion are set to expire.
Most of these calls were bought in 2021 and the expiration of these deep-in-the-money calls are a catalyst for volatility, higher or lower. The bulk of these calls probably are substitutes for stocks, so the dealers that sold the options are in turn long shares of stock as a hedge. When these call positions are closed or expire, the dealers will need to sell their long stock. Last year this caused a few days of volatility but with no net change in the S&P 500.
The fractal dimension got even more consolidated as the Index fell through the 61.8% retracement level, almost wiping out the fourth-quarter rally. A break below 4450 would be very serious with this amount of fractal energy.
There will be corrections. Corrections are not only natural but also pretty much guaranteed when the starting point is elevated valuations, which we have today. We’ve already seen a 5% correction this year and there’s a 29% chance of a 20% correction.
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And this analyst says the market will plunge beginning February 11. I guess we’ll see.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
MDNA Medicenna – Partner for MDNA55
AG First Majestic Silver – Holding silver inventory to sell at higher prices
SD SandRidge Energy – Skyrocketing natural gas prices this winter
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPHGraphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
MDNA Medicenna – replacing interleukins
Economy
The decline in retail sales in December has taken fourth-quarter real GDP estimates down. Goldman Sachs cut their estimate by a half-point to +6½%, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate is down to 5.1%. We get the official first estimate next Thursday before the open.
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The decline in retail sales actually is a good thing. The virus lockdowns and stimulus payments caused a voracious consumer appetite for goods and companies have struggled with supply chain and labor issues to produce them. Normalizing retail spending is a good thing for reducing inflationary pressures.
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Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 340,535,968 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 279,321,147 have run their course. Of those, 273,734,184 recovered and 5,586,963 died – a slightly improved case fatality rate of 2.0%.
In the US, there have been 69,808,350 confirmed infections, of which 44,773,253 have run their course. Of those, 43,892,277 recovered and 880,976 died, matching the last 11 week’s all-time low case fatality rate of 2.0%. The moving average case fatality rate has plunged to 0.24% as the less-deadly omicron virus became the dominant infection.
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Daily cases are just starting to turn down.
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Hospitalizations may have peaked last Friday – we’ll see.
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Daily deaths also may be starting to turn down. If omicron really is only 7.7% as deadly as delta and has been the predominant variant for three weeks now, and the average day of death is day 18 after detection, then we should see a fall in deaths next week or something is not right.
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An overwhelming majority of the population is vaccinated.
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The UK just ended all mask, lockdown, and vaccine mandates as omicron burns itself out. In the US, #Feb1andDone is trending.
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Wednesday, January 26
AG – First Majestic – Through 1/28 – TD Securities Mining Conference
GLW – Corning – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
Fed Meeting – 2:00pm
Short Interest – After the close
Thursday, January 27
December quarter real GDP – 8:30am – First estimate
AAPL – Apple – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically is very low. At the same time,
Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $7.90) said they got positive feedback from the FDA at their pre-Investigational New Drug meeting for the Phase 2b trial of Ifenprodil for chronic cough. The FDA wants standard genotoxicity testing to be completed prior to beginning the trial, which will take 90 days.
They also filed for approval in the UK to start the Phase 1 trial of DMT for acute stroke and rehab. AGNPF is a Hold.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2021
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $3.35) got Fast Track designation for ATRS-1902 for acute adrenal insufficiency. Fast Track is designed to accelerate the development and review of treatments for serious and life-threatening diseases where no treatment exists or where the treatment in discovery may provide advantages over what is currently available. ATRS-1902 now is eligible for more frequent communication with the FDA throughout the drug development process and a rolling and/or priority review of its marketing application.
ATRS is a Strong Buy up to $5 for a $10 target price based on Xyosted and EpiPen sales, and $50 in three to five years, as they and their partners introduce numerous new products.
Primary Risk: Xyosted prescriptions stop growing or other products don’t sell well.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of first FDA approval: Approved
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $16.30) said a survey of doctors showed 66% believe psilocybin therapy has potential therapeutic benefit for patients with treatment-resistant depression. More than 320 million people globally suffer with major depressive disorder, the leading cause of disability worldwide and one of the fastest growing mental health illnesses. About a third of these patients – 100 million people – aren’t helped by existing therapies and suffer with treatment-resistant depression. CMPS is a Buy under $36 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2023
Inovio (INO – $4.10) is starting to worry me, not because it isn’t wildly undervalued – it is – but because I suspect they are about to announce that INO-4800 is not very effective against the omicron variant, so they are going to prioritize INO-4802, which is designed to be effective against all variants. INO-4800 targets the spike protein, and that’s where omicron has mutated to avoid the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. The omicron variant has 34 mutations in the spike, more than other variants.
The World Health Organization has chosen Inovio’s technology as one of the two vaccines in a worldwide trial for a global vaccine. They said that as of last Thursday, 36 of the 194 member countries had vaccinated less than 10% of their population and 88 other countries have vaccinated less than 40% of their populations.
Inovio will be fine, but I’m worried about how Wall Street will react to an announcement that INO-4800 isn’t effective against omicron. It will depend on how they phrase it, and CEO Joseph Kim is pretty good at PR. INO is a Buy under $21 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2022
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.59) said we will get more safety pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic data from the Phase 1/2 trial of MDNA11 this quarter with initial efficacy results still scheduled for midyear. Buy MDNA under $4 for a first target of $40, then maybe $80.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: mid-2022
Biotech MegaShift
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI – $3.18) said 2021 revenue hit the high end of their guidance. They now expect revenue in the range of $165 million to $167 million, as compared to previous guidance of $162 million to $167 million. Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization are expected to be in the $40 million to $45 million range as compared with previous guidance of under $40 million.
They said Belbuca continues to take market share in the long-acting opioid market, with its total market share exceeding 5% at the end of the year. It had record revenues for the December quarter with an all-time high of 122,000 prescriptions. Buy BDSI under $9 for a $15 target.
Primary Risk: Slow sales of Belbuca.
Clinical stage of lead product: Already approved
Probable time of first FDA approval: Already approved
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple‘s (AAPL – $164.51) target price was raised by Deutsche Bank from $175 to $200 because “Considering a healthy demand backdrop and Apple’s strong product portfolio across its product lines, we believe the Street estimate for CY22 revenue growth of only +5% (vs. Deutsche Bank estimate of +9%) is too low with the push-out of some revenue from calendar year 2021 already accounting for ~3 percentage points of growth, and we therefore believe there is an upward bias to estimates as we go through the year.”
On the other hand, ever-reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple’s rumored Virtual Reality headset production is delayed until late 2022. They want to make sure the six-ounce headset is comfortable to wear for long periods of time. It is rumored to cost anywhere from $1,000 to $3,000.
According to Kuo, Apple wants this headset to be a paradigm shift in the industry, similar to how the original iPhone changed smartphones forever. I suspect Tim Cook wants a product that will be his legacy like the iPhone is Steve Job’s legacy. AAPL is a Hold for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $24.14) priced its biggest-ever yen bond on Thursday, selling a $4.8 billion, seven-year subordinated note at 2.48% to pay off other debt. SFTBY is a Buy under $30 for a first target of $60 in the next two years.
Other Tech
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.15) got a $1 million order for their ArcticLink display bridge. They now expect to be above operating cash flow breakeven in the December quarter.
In addition, they said: “In recent weeks several of the world’s largest consumer product suppliers have engaged QuickLogic based on its ability to provide solutions with shorter lead times.” QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $60 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $9.73) announced their first 2022 launch window opening February 4 for the fifth and sixth satellites for BlackSky. This will be the 24th Electron launch. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk:A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Velo3D (VLD – $5.46) did a half-hour fireside chat at the Needham Growth Conference (ZOOM HERE). They have the backlog of orders to drive major revenue growth in 2022. I expect them to guide for $85 million to $90 million, more than triple 2021.
Velo3D can make parts others cannot.
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VLD is a Buy up to $11 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,838.80) made a run at the $1,842 retracement level and was rejected…so far. This would be an excellent time for the incredible level of stored-up fractal energy to release.
Miners & Related
First Majestic (AG – $11.64) announced a new quarterly production record of 8.6 million ounces of silver equivalent, up 17% from the September quarter and giving them an annual production record of 23.9 million ounces for 2021. That is up 32% from 2020. They will announce earnings on March 10.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE), they guided for record 2022 production of 32.2 million to 35.8 million silver equivalent ounces, consisting of 12.2 million to 13.5 million ounces of silver and 258,000 to 288,000 ounces of gold, with All-In-Sustaining-Cost guidance of between $16.79 to $18.06 per silver equivalent ounce. Their goal is to produce over 40 million silver equivalent ounces by 2024.
At the end of the quarter, 21 exploration drill rigs were active consisting of seven rigs at San Dimas, nine rigs at Jerritt Canyon, three rigs at Santa Elena, and two rigs at La Encantada. They are planning to significantly increase exploration drilling in 2022 by 40.5% to approximately 320,200 meters compared to 227,845 meters in 2021.
AG is a Buy under $15 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.69) published a 2021 Year in Review and said final assay results from the drill program at the Frost project are expected shortly. Also, the assay results and analysis from the first drilling campaign at Sleeper in almost a decade are still pending. PZG is a Buy under $5 for a $10 first target with gold over $1,600 an ounce.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Probable time of next financing: December 2021 quarter
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Square, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $42,732.05) has been consolidating for a couple of weeks in the $40,000 to $43,000 area. We may have just seen a short-term breakout.
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I still think it is headed for $100,000 this year or next, so this looks like a relatively low-risk entry point.
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $29.02) is the best way to buy bitcoin right now. Each trust unit holds $39.753 in bitcoin and sells at a record 27% discount to net asset value. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $86.29
When President Biden announced plans to release up to 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in a desperate attempt to lower gasoline prices, I said that any effect this move had would be short-lived.
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OPEC+ remains steadfast in adding 400,000 barrels per day back to the market each month, but their spare capacity is so limited the monthly additions are closer to 250,000 barrels per day. Consequently, oil now is at a seven-year high and Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to hit $105 this year.
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The ESG folks are learning the hard way that inserting politics into investing can be very costly.
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The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $26.16) is a Buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
* * * * *
RIP Ronnie Spector
* * * * *
Your understanding gamma-driven flows Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Antares Pharma (ATRS) – Buy under $5, first target $10, then $50
Aptose Biosciences (APTO) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
Biocept (BIOC) – Buy under $5 for a target of $60 in an acquisition
CohBar (CWBR) – Buy under $2, hold a long time
Compass Pathways (CMPS) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA) – Buy under $5, target $15 or $25
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI) – Buy under $9, target $15
TG Therapeutics (TGTX) – Buy under $40, target price $80+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Facebook (FB) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Velo3D (VLD) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Rocket Lab (RKLB) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) – Buy under $25, target price $50
ALPS Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII.TO) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA) – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Oil
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
SandRidge Energy (SD) – Buy under $8.50 for a $17 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF) – Hold for CEO comment
Apple Computer (AAPL) – Hold for 5G iPhones
Sells
iShares MSCI Japan Exchange-Traded Fund (EWJ)
Global X MSCI Greece Exchange-Traded Fund (GREK)
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First!
Michael, I am asking this out of ignorance….while oil is is priced at near term highs, the two oil recommendations for OIL and 2026 futures have seemed to move very little. While I agree that the prospects for higher oil prices continue are these the best investment instruments?
I recommended OIL on June 17 at $20.72 when crude was at $72.49. As of Thursday’s close, OIL was up 26.3% while crude was up 19.0%. OIL matches the Barclays WTI Crude Oil Pure Beta Total Return Index that tracks the returns of an unleveraged investment in the crude oil futures, mostly short-term.
The 2026 futures really haven’t moved because the contract is in backwardation, with near-term prices higher than 2026 prices. People don’t believe oil will be much higher in 2026, and that is the opportunity. But I don’t expect the 2026 contract to move much in the near term – that’s why I also recommended OIL.
3 me ?
Read this. Investment great sees things differently.
https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/viewpoints/2022/gmo_let-the-wild-rumpus-begin_1-22.pdf
Thanks for this. We use to say that at times like these, nobody wants to hear good advice and the lone voice is lost in the wilderness. Today, it is buried beneath the rubble and drivel from social media and even harder to hear the message.
I have great respect for Jeremy Grantham, but he’s been bearish for at least four years.
NLST is a small chip company in Irvine, Ca w/ several patents that have been violated for years by SK Hynix, MU, Samsung and Google. They won against SK. In courts now vs Google and Samsung. Mike, can you take a peek at this company? Stock ran up from pennies couple years ago to $10, now at $5 and I think it’s basing for a launch when verdicts come in on Google and Samsung any day.
I think they lost the Samsung trial on December 7, but they’ll negotiate a new license. A $1 billion market cap for a small memory assembler is probably OK, but it doesn’t look compelling to me.
Released oil from the reserve are a problem:
I noticed a article (I think in the WSJ) that oil which was released was from the very lowest grade held in the reserve – and that very few if any refineries in the USA are equipped to to process it.
@Michael Murphy. Another outstanding Radar Report in a field of uncertainty. Re: The price of oil, many are really dealing with the politics of ESG. Exxon, to be more-green has joined a net zero carbon policy for 2050. They said they did the numbers. One of mine TPL, had lots of pictures of windmills in their annual report a week or so ago, as they are having market measures of ESG not very friendly to their stock price in the middle and owner of most of the Permian Basin. You are right on, on that observation, it appears. Re: gold, I noted after hours today, that the price flirted with 1840+, then inched up to $1842+ around 4PM EDT, Maybe we will get a slingshot Tomorrow. Just playing with my lottery ticket mentality. Re: 3D printing and Velo3D, that market now has an ETF called PRNT. One of my brokers Merrill Lynch does not permit trades for it, but Fidelity does. Just saw a remarkable CNBC 3D home builder, who is finishing $250,000 or so houses in 22 days for the complete outside with a concrete (all of the outside is 3D, which is quick dry that allows internal utilities, etc. to be made at virtually the same time. The owner was talking large numbers of housing. Thanks for your threading the policy needles and relevant market histories. Looks like a bit of a bumpy road
Is CWBR a table pounding buy at this price?? Also is MDNA getting some offers of a buy out? Rumors??
It’s really cheap IF they have a way forward with CB4211. I think they do, but I’d like to see evidence in the form of a deal.
MDNA is more likely to find a partner for MDNA55 than get bought out. BUT we are at a point we should see a flurry of buyouts from Big Pharma.
@Michael Murphy any updates on SCYNEXIS, Inc. (SCYX) ? or it has bmobed?
MM–since you recently bought some SCYX near $6, I would think you want to get monthly sales data, which is the most important determinant of the stock price. Maybe stupid regulations say that a company can remain silent until quarterly reports, but a company with good news would enthusiastically reveal data more frequently.
ARTH–does the Lovell contract include sales efforts on their part?
SCYX – data is pretty unreliable in the launch phase, some overstated by shipping inventory to distributors, some understated by missing prescriptions.
ARTH – I doubt it. Government hospitals have to order a % of their stuff through companies like Lovell, so AC5 is a way to fulfill that obligation.
ARTH–maybe the % is low/insignifcant, like window dressing in the holdings of mutual funds. “Look, we own XYZ.” Never mind that it makes up 0.001% of their portfolio. So Lovell may be playing only a minor role here. Frank Christensen may be correct that there are no dedicated sales agents for AC5.
They don’t report until the end of March.
Doesn’t ARTH still need to report the quarter that ended in December?
INO is about 75% off it’s high and NOW you’re worried about it? The tech sector is in for quite a bit more pain IMO. Yesterday’s nasty reversal doesn’t bode well. BUY INSURANCE!
BTW, bitcoin took a nasty dump after your bottom call.
Fractals?
Michael
NWI newsletter has been nothing but pain and frustration for quite some time with a plethora of useless drivel about a penny stock (ARTH) and tired stock and out of date information on larger holdings for which we are left to fend for ourselves. Have been quietly reducing little by little for some time now, particularly the INO crapshoot. The last significant news release from Kim after a long delay was negative having to do with the cellectra partial hold. He is not to be trusted.
BTW may I ask what you would suggest for insurance and over what time frame, vixx, etc ? It’s getting quite volatile out there.
I bought VXX FEB $18 CALLS a couple weeks ago but they are getting rather expensive. I personally hate the VXX instrument but made out very well with them in 2020 when the pandemic hit. You have to keep an eagle eye on these things because they can run down as fast as up.
I’ve also raised a large amount of cash. It won’t make you money but it certainly won’t collapse like we are seeing with stocks.
Thanks
yah, bought vxx yesterday at $23 and raised a lot of cash. Holding strong with Canadian banks BNS, RY TD. Didn’t like it when expected blowout numbers for NVTA failed to move the needle. Time to close out the weak sisters(biotechs) and holding only SCYX.
Can’t fathom the fixation on this board with the penny stocks (ARTH). Owned it once 3 years ago. MM is determined to have his “see I told you so” moment. Buffett rules #1and #2 for the foreseeable future
At one point, MM said ARTH was his biggest holding, or it had the best prospects of all the NWI stocks. 3 years ago with US and EU approvals, the future looked favorable, but MM still hasn’t acknowledged that it is a different story today with the reality that TN now bears the responsibility for selling AC5, which he originally didn’t want to do.
ARTH- Agreed. MM needed to pull the plug, like he does buy putting it on “hold”, around mid-2019, when it became clear that no large Biopharma company was interested in acquiring it. The rest is the story of the pathetic attempts by TN to re-invent himself as an entrepreneur. Having said that, in the current market collapse ARTH is trading pretty dry and stays above $.10, both positives.
Readers’ Picks
What are your best picks for the next year (or two)?
Mine: ACXP, NGENF and BETRF
Any idea what happened to ACXP today? 12% plunge on 10-20x usual volume, much worse than the general market. ACXP looks like a top early stage biotech, and even it is very vulnerable. Most of these bios must be bought only on extreme weakness, never on strength.
Agree. That’s why I and several of my friends added a lot today. Friday was a big redemptions day in the markets. I think a lot of holders thought they could sell today and buy back cheaply next week. With the bid at 3.99 now and the 10% up move in the last hour or so, that strategy is not looking good now.
Thanks, but is there any fundamental bad news for ACXP that could have caused this high volume selloff?
Could have been related to this ridiculous paper published in NEJM this week
SER109 sounds like a good adjunctive treatment for C. diff, after antibiotics such as vancomycin in this trial. From the article, “In patients with recurrent C. difficile infection, achievement of a sustained clinical response can be made more likely with a two-pronged treat- ment paradigm of antibiotics followed by a microbiome therapeutic. SER-109 was superior to placebo in reducing the risk of recurrence, with an observed safety profile similar to that of placebo.”
But ACXP’s drug by itself may be at least as effective as the combination of SER109 and Vanco. Would SER109 plus ACXP’s drug be any better?
I recommend probiotics for prevention, and relief of mild conditions like food poisoning, but the science of selecting the best probiotic for specific conditions is in its infancy. I doubt that SER109 by itself would do much for acutely ill patients with C. diff. The company probably knew that, and designed this trial as an adjunct to vancomycin and other antibiotics. ACXP’s drug looks like the best single agent for C diff. At what stage of development is SER109 in?
The huge decline in ACXP on Fri sounded like something wrong with the company happened. So I think it is a buying opportunity.
Chris, it is disappointing that ACXP had a weaker rebound than the general market today.
Good Morning all. Gold and all precious metals have had a real roller coaster ride this morning. Gold was down $9.00 and now is trading at $1843. Cryptos are recovering a bit from a rumor, it seems that Russia or China was thinking about abolishing Crypto. Did we have a mini correction again?
Gold now at $1844.in the pre mkt.
Boink! I surrender to that Gold move. Looks like we are gonna join the march to safety, but not in gold, for a while. Brokers I have talked with this morning suggest we pray over the weekend.
So they can prey all week long? (I’m sorry. Nothing personal. I just couldn’t resist.)
Good one. @StephKam
On Wednesday Russia said they might ban crypto and mining.
Intel is making a chip just for mining Bitcoin. Stock guru’s are saying buy Intel. I agree.
MM looks like you were right the S+P closed under 4450. What can we expect NOW?
I think the Fed backs down on Wednesday.
Agreed. Michael Murphy. Thode 401 K’s are drying up.
If they ban crypto, that is negative. If they ban mining, the supply goes down, which is bullish. Which factor would dominate?
Wow, I can see the yellow metal warming up now. Maybe have some fun on Dogecoin as well.
INO
From yahoo board:
Bio2 hours ago
INO was at $2 before the covid hype of a “3 hours vaccine”. Shares outstanding were 100,010,328.
Inovio produced nothing for covid and the share count increased to 210,356,896 .
Hence, INO should be less than $1 now.
This same person has posted this same message for close to a year. I think Monday he will finally be right. At this point I may get back in.
MM – looking at the grayscale funds charts (link below) am I reading this accurately that as of this message, right now there is a 30% discount to BTC true value, and a 48% discount to ETH? If so why are these not the best buys in the market??
https://www.coinglass.com/Grayscale
They are the best ways to buy BTC and ETH today
I have owned PZG for years. I have a substantial position. As we all know even though gold has been over $1600 several times and now exceeds that by over $200.00 per ounce, I am curious as to Michael’s thoughts on why it can not seem to go up but seems to consistently go lower. Michael has had a $5.00 buy limit and a $10.00 target for a few years now and it struggles to get over a $1.00. I would love to hear your thoughts on why it seems to be unable to gain any traction and the path forward for those of us who own the stock. Jeff
Producing miners have lots of leverage to the commodity price. MM should respond to our questions about PZG by analyzing proven/probable reserves, costs of production which reflect the grade, etc. Perhaps ESG forces are sabotaging production, I don’t know.
SA article by Andy Jones explaining why he is re-entering ATRS now after having followed it for years:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481169-antares-pharma-significant-uncertainty-strong-upside-potential?messageid=2800&utm_campaign=4481169&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=RTA+Article+Smart
Today was the first time ever the Dow has reversed a 1,000+ point drop to close higher on the day.
But it felt like I was crossing the street when a herd of something ran crosswise leaving me stunned more than bruised to rise and dust myself off and wonder.
But futures are down big tonight. NWI stocks are still lagging.
It seems the markets are simply following the lead of the NFL follies of Saturday and Sunday…
They’re saying it was the best playoff weekend ever.
The Buffalo Bills were robbed of a fair OT by not having the opportunity to play offense in OT. Why the hell does the first team with the ball win if they score a TD but game continues if they score a field goal?? So Josh Allen lost the game when he said tales not head on the coin toss – horrible format
Totally agree! Who devised that?
The Bills had plenty of opportunities to take that game. I don’t agree with the OT format but it’s the same deal for both teams.
The mistake was not kicking it on a line drive/ Before Mahomes got ready, the clock would have been 0.
Good late evening all. Let’s get this straight. We have a thousand-dollar Dow shift during the day, and volatility all over the marketplace, and the not so successful administration taking a feint from Putin to rattle a Sabre with 8500 troops on high alert with NATO members kowtowing to Germany, an obvious major mistake by a president who was always wrong (Remember his decision not to get Bin Laden) and Robert Gates who said the same thing about always wrong. What am I getting at? if this isn’t a great opportunity for Gold to really break thru tomorrow, I’ll be the Biden of precious metals. GLTA. Xi is happy.
By all means let Ukraine defend itself. Just give it back the 194 nukes it gave up when Russia promised to respect its borders in 1997.
Russia did the same thing in 2014 and Obama put those economic sanctions on Putin then. Little good that did because Putin ended up taken a lot of Ukrainian territory. The US provided NO help then too. Plus the fact that the Ukrainian military is practically worthless. (They have a small force and are lacking much equipment) First Biden says it will be OK as long as the skirmish is small. ( basically saying it would be no big deal)Then after talking to his advisors , he ended up walking that statement back. Today he faced the media and he said “This would be the biggest invasion since world war 2” (a really big deal)!! Not to mention that a good percentage of the people of the Ukrainian population would welcome the Russian take over. Unbelievable. If gas is getting crazy expensive now , just wait until Russia takes over all the territory with the oil reserves and Putin kicks the now president out and replaces him with one of his liking. Just IMO
Yeah this is kind of rough on Russia. If the former guy was still in office, Ukraine would already be in Putin’s hands.
Bought Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE)
Can you share your portfolio with percent of total? No share amount as that is too personal.
Asian Markets up a bit.
GLOBAL MARKETS-Asian shares cautiously higher as investors await Fed policy update (yahoo.com)
Good morning al. Congrats Michael Murphy. Corning is looking good this morning. You were right on with ETHE and we are off to the races, it appears. Woe is me on the gold guess, BUT miners are up and so are commodities and home sales, which may give the Fed some jitters. Freeport McMoran is saying Gold is OK???? I give up on that.
@Chris snow, I missed your suggestion of NGENF. Have held it for quite some time. Their work with spinal cord injury has the word “miracle” to describe it.Good luck to all who buy it.
Don’t know where the word”snow” got into the post above. Tries to edit it. It stays???
I think this might turn out to be a winner for MM.
http://ir.medicenna.com/news-releases/news-release-details/medicenna-announces-peer-reviewed-publication-preclinical-data
SFTBY is falling: https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/softbank-plunges-as-fed-inspires-tech-rout-across-asian-stocks
TGTX
well that sucks
http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20220127/ALZZ622CZ22269A2222A2ZZ2QOIGZM2I7D42/tgtx-20220127x8k.htm
Let’s see how MM spins this TGTX disaster tonight.
Not good news. Maybe MM will give a detailed update on TGTX in tonight’s Radar report. I must have missed the high overall survival hazard ratio information in prior updates if it was there. I bought more TGTX last year and, of course, have lost a lot on those positions. Thanks for that link.
MM–If CLL/NHL trials are a bust, is it worth holding TGTX for MS data in Sept 2022? If MS data is suspect, TGTX is toast.
realy looks like CLL is not going to work with hazard over 1 the question is whats the hazard ratio in MS trial ?
MS Ublituximab (TG-1101) is an investigational glycoengineered monoclonal antibody
CLL Umbralisib (TGR-1202) is an oral inhibitor of PI3K-delta and CK1-epsilon
sound different but i dont know how similar they are.
hopefully what is causing the problum its not a shared.
The OS HR adjusted for COVID deaths was 1.04, still >1 and not good, I agree. However, the claim is that the study is not yet statistically powered and that there is “improved” data. We don’t know what that data is and hopefully not a TGTX spin. We won’t know until March or April it seems. Maybe MM can some other parameters, other than panic stock movement, by which we can make decisions. I feel pretty stupid at this time having held this long from the highs.
Don’t beat yourself up Lee ,mm has an 80 dollar price target on it alot of us are in the same boat,mm will probably buy at this price,good possibility he doesn’t own any of it yet
The new Radar Report for 1.27.22 is posted.