Dear New World Investor:
So the “hawkish” Fed said no change to their taper plans, they will consider a March interest rate increase, and they won’t sell bonds to reduce their balance sheet, they’ll just let the mortgage bonds mature. Really? With the rate of inflation about to start subsiding quickly in April, Chairman Powell can set himself up to claim victory…at least until the rapidly slowing real GDP growth forces him to back off.
December quarter real GDP growth came in at 6.9% this morning, above the Atlanta Fed’s 6.5% forecast and way above the Blue Chip economists’ forecast for +6.0%. But 4.9 of those percentage points were due to a jump in inventories, the largest increase since the December 1987 quarter (excluding the lockdown).
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So what’s next? After that December 1987 quarter, in the March 1988 quarter real GDP grew just 2.0% as companies sold off inventories. But we’ll be much weaker than that because of elevated inflation, low business/consumer confidence, and omicron. The March quarter will slow to well under 2%. June could be negative, whether due to omicron or because the vast majority of US consumers are once again tapped out just as gasoline prices soar. Tightening into a slowdown…who says the Fed isn’t always behind the curve? The message from the bond market is clear: Slowdown coming!
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And the difference between the five-year note yield and the 30-year bond yield is just 30 basis points away from where the Fed threw in the towel in December 2018:
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It is entirely possible that the January payrolls report due next week on February 4 will be negative. At some point, the Fed will realize that it can’t possibly hike rates enough to offset a surge in inflation that is not demand-driven but is due to continued supply constraints over which the Fed has no power.
In 2016, the Fed said they were going to implement four rate hikes that year. Only one rate hike actually occurred. In 2019, the Fed watchers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan expected four Fed hikes.
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What actually happened was one rate hike, from 2% to 2.25%, followed by rate cuts later in the year. Wall Street now expects four or five Fed fund rate hikes in 2022. I expect one at most. When the Fed capitulates, we will see a rip-your-face-off rally to new all-time highs.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index flipped quickly from greed to fear:
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The American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey is very bearish.
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And the ratio of AAII bulls to bears is at a 10-year low:
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People are scared, and that’s not how bull markets end. Since last Thursday, the S&P 500 lost 3.5%. The Index is down 9.2% year-to-date and flirting with a correction. The S&P experiences a correction approximately every other year. JP Morgan has tracked 21 corrections in the last 41 years. After a 10% to 20% correction, it takes about four months to recover and 66% of the time stocks finish the year in the green. It has averaged 14 months to recover from a 20-40% correction.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 5.7% and is down 14.7% for the year. Monday’s waterfall decline had the third-highest number of 52-week lows on Nasdaq ever, behind only the March 2020 virus panic and the Lehman Brothers implosion in 2008. There were more 52-week lows in the Nasdaq than in December 2018, when the S&P briefly entered a bear market and Powell ended the tightening cycle.
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The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 4.6% and is down 14.0% in 2022. Across the entire Russell 3000, the average stock has seen a third of its value chopped off from 52-week highs, while the average health care stock has been more than cut in half.
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I’ve raised the all-time high line on the fractals chart to the January 4 high at 4818.62 and recalculated the retracement levels from the September 30, 2021 low at 4307.54. The 38.2% retracement is at 4623 and the 61.8% retracement is at 4503. Dips to the 4307 level were rejected every day this week. The fractal dimension came close to identifying this downturn as a new trend, but so far it is just a consolidation of the December quarter upswing.
For some reason, the last day of January, this coming Monday, has a strong seasonal bias upward.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
MDNA Medicenna – Partner for MDNA55
AG First Majestic Silver – Holding silver inventory to sell at higher prices
SD SandRidge Energy – Skyrocketing natural gas prices this winter
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPHGraphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
MDNA Medicenna – replacing interleukins
Economy
The consensus expectation for next Friday’s January payrolls report is a mediocre +238,000 jobs, following the major disappointment of +199,000 jobs in December. The Ned Davis Research global recession model in the high-risk zone.
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Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 365,437,098 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 294,668,954 have run their course. Of those, 289,017,658 recovered and 5,651,296 died – a new record low case fatality rate of 1.9%.
In the US, there have been 74,407,159 confirmed infections, of which 46,423,943 have run their course. Of those, 45,523,748 recovered and 900,195 died, also a new record low case fatality rate of 1.9%.
Daily cases are falling steadily as omicron spreads rapidly, creating natural immunity.
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Hospitalizations peaked a week ago.
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Even though omicron is less deadly, the number of daily deaths is still climbing due to the dramatic increase in the number of infections.
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Almost three-quarters of all adults are fully vaccinated.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Tuesday, February 1
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
Wednesday, February 2
FB – Meta – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, February 3
GRPH – Graphite Bio – 11:00am – Cowen Genetic Medicines Summit
Friday, February 4
January payrolls – 8:30am – +238,000 expected
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $6.11) said as part of its intellectual property patent applications filed in early 2021 for AP-188, they included novel salt forms of DMT. A novel salt form of a drug is a new and separate structure from the original compound and is considered a new composition of matter – the strongest type of drug patent. They also filed for dosing, formulation, and method of use patent applications for stroke rehabilitation. AGNPF is a Hold.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2021
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Biocept (BIOC – $2.66) said the spread of omicron has increased their testing volume. They’ve received more than 40,000 samples so far this year and over 765,000 samples since they started testing in June 2020.
Biocept tests for three gene targets rather than the one target gene or protein as used in some other tests. Omicron variant cases often lose the S gene target and can easily be missed by a single gene PCR test or single protein rapid antigen. Most positive cases the company is seeing right now have only two of the original three gene targets, and can easily be missed with single target tests. BIOC is a Buy under $5 for a $60 target in an acquisition.
Primary Risk: They run out of money.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Maybe none needed
Biotech MegaShift
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $8.27) dropped over 40% today after they presented at the B. Riley Securities Oncology Conference (ZOOM HERE). Management said the FDA has placed a partial clinical hold on the trials of the U2 combination of Ukoniq (umbralisib) and ublituximab for chronic lymphocytic leukemia and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. The conference call is really worth listening to.
The hold is not based on new information, but prior concerns that will be addressed at the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee meeting in March or April. There’s no way the FDA can hit the March 25 PDUFA date. The FDA requested an interim look at overall survival in September, even though that was not part of the trial and over 15% of the patients had been lost to follow-up. The original information showed a hazard ratio adjusted for COVID of 1.04, which means the drug might be hurting people. So the FDA asked for the Advisory Committee meeting and now has put the trial on hold.
Since submitting the initial data, the clinical trial sites have been able to find two-thirds of the missing patients. TG now has that data and is about to submit it to the FDA. It shows a lower hazard ratio – I suspect it’s under 1.0.
I expect the Advisory Committee to vote to allow the trial to continue. This will delay approval and the launch, but we should still see revenues this year and, of course, approval of the multiple sclerosis filing on September 28. Buy TGTX under $40 for a target price in a buyout of $80 or more.
Primary Risk: Ukoniq fails to sell or FDA turns down U2.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: March 25, 2022
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $159.22) reported a strong December first quarter after the close today. Revenues were up 11.2% from last year to $123.94 billion while earnings hit $2.10 per share. They trounced the consensus expectation for $118.4 billion and $1.89. iPhone sales of $71.6 billion were well above the $67.5 billion expectation. Service revenues grew 24.2% to $19.5 billion. Mac revenues grew 25.0% to $10.85 billion. Wearables, including Apple Watch and AirPods, grew 13.3% to $14.7 billion.
On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they still are having some supply issues, which caused iPad sales to fall 14% from last year to $7.25 billion. When they reported the September quarter they said they had an impact of $6 billion on their business due to supply chain constraints, and that the December quarter would see a bigger impact. The CFO said the impact should be smaller in the current quarter.
Wall Street loved the results and marked the stock up 4% in the aftermarket. Evercore raised their target price to $210, which would give Apple a $3.92 trillion market capitalization. AAPL is a Hold for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Corning (GLW – $40.56) reported a good December quarter and then guided for a strong March quarter and 2022. December quarter revenue was up 12% to $3.71 billion with proforma earnings of 54¢ a share. The Street was expecting $3.59 billion and 52¢. For the full year, sales grew 23% to $14.1 billion and earnings were up 49% to $2.07. Free cash flow almost doubled to $1.8 billion, supporting further dividend increases,
On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), they said Optical Communications sales grew 22% year-over-year to $4.3 billion thanks to increased spending in broadband, 5G, and cloud computing. Life Sciences sales grew 24% to over $1.2 billion. Environmental Technologies sales grew 16% to an all-time-high $1.6 billion, driven by strength in heavy-duty trucks that outweighed weakness in the automotive market related to chip shortages.
2021 Specialty Materials sales, primarily Gorilla Glass for smartphones, grew 7% to over $2 billion for the first time. Gorilla Glass is the clear market leader. Display (TV) sales grew 17% to $3.7 billion in the most favorable pricing environment in more than 10 years. In 2021, Corning’s Gen 10.5 factories supplied glass for large-size TVs, which are expected to grow at a high-teens percentage rate for the next several years.
For the March quarter, they guided to $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion in sales, well above the $3.44 billion consensus, with earnings per share of 48¢ to 53¢, also above the 48¢ consensus. For 2022 they expect sales to grow 6.4% to $15.0 billion and earnings to grow faster. They expect significant growth in Optical Communications from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which provides for broadband deployment to benefit underserved communities. Also, they negotiated price increases that take effect throughout 2022, so the gross margin will expand. Wall Street marked the stock up $3.95 or 11% yesterday on the results, and another $1.32 today.
Corning is not an exciting company. It’s the relentless Ohio State of tech companies – three yards and a cloud of dust. It’s a market-risk stock you can buy at a 3% yield and tuck away for retirement. In 2021 they increased the dividend by 9% and bought back 5% of the shares. It got close to my $33 buy limit on Monday and we may get a chance in a further selloff. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My first target is $60 in 2022.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $67.27) got FDA approval to treat non-hospitalized adult and adolescent COVID-19 patients at high risk of disease progression with Veklury (remdesivir). Their Phase 3 data showed three consecutive days of IV infusion reduced the risk of hospitalization by 87% compared to placebo. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $105 for a first target of $130.
Other Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $24.47) said the bottom-feeders who filed shareholder class action lawsuits abandoned their claims entirely and voluntarily dismissed the case with prejudice, waiving their right to any and all appeals. What a complete waste of time these lawsuits are. FSLY is a Buy up to $45 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $150+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $8.10) was selected by NASA as one of 12 companies to provide launch services for the agency’s Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare (VADR) missions, a five-year program with a maximum budget of $300 million in launch contracts.
The company extended the date for their warrant redemption to January 31 to give retail investors extra time to exercise before the warrants are worthless.
The next Electron launch is scheduled for February 14 and will include their first aerial rocket capture attempt. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk:A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,795.50) made another serious run at the $1,842 retracement level and was rejected again. The consolidation continues with the fractal dimension in record territory. New highs are coming. Last Friday, the SPDR Gold Shares Exchange-Traded Fund (GLD) had its biggest net inflow in dollar terms since listing in 2004, $1.63 billion.
Miners & Related
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.64) announced positive results of metallurgical tests designed to recover more gold at Sleeper from sulphide mineralization, which is not included in the current mine plan. PZG is a Buy under $5 for a $10 first target with gold over $1,600 an ounce.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Probable time of next financing: December 2021 quarter
Sprott Inc. (SII – $34.56) raised $701 million to start the Sprott Private Resource Streaming and Royalty Fund. It will act like Sandstorm to provide financing to miners to acquire and bring projects into production. Buy SII under $22 for a $52 target price.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Square, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $35,808.27) may dip tomorrow because the SEC turned down another spot exchange-traded fund to protect Wall Street retail investors.
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Just so I’m clear, THIS dip is the scary one, right?
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $87.04 is not headed back to $12, Cathie.
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OPEC+ meets next week and will stick to their 400,000 barrels per day monthly increase to their output, even though they don’t have the spare capacity to come anywhere near that. Full-scale sanctions on Russian oil would strip the global oil market of precious barrels and prices would skyrocket. It’s just another example of how bad energy policy limits geopolitical options and leverage.
According to the Energy Information Administration, inventories in Cushing this month sank to the lowest levels in a decade seasonally. Last week, inventories fell for a third straight week to 31.7 million barrels. Time spreads, which reflect the premium for West Texas Intermediate barrels for immediate delivery to those for delivery in later months, are at the strongest since November when they hit a three-year high. Movements in crude spreads are a closely watched gauge for supply-demand balances in the oil market and they are currently signaling a dearth of barrels for immediate delivery.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $26.67) is a Buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
SandRidge Energy (SD – $10.62) won’t benefit from today’s 38% jump in the February natural gas contract to $5.90. The futures went live for delivery today on thin volume when everyone’s short and we just had a chilly weather forecast. SD will benefit as the cold weather hits. The Delaware Valley School District had to close today because they couldn’t get enough natty to heat the schools.
This is about forces much bigger than the weather. Goldman Sachs now expects the tightness in European gas markets to last for another three years. They said that while the current shortage in European natural gas was partly caused by transient drivers, such as exceptionally cold weather, it also reflects structural drivers that will only intensify in coming years They expect a sequential decline in Dutch gas production through at least 2023 due to the government-mandated shutdown of the Groningen field, as well as a sequential decline in European LNG imports through at least 2024, owing to Asia demand rising faster than global LNG supplies. A lot of that LNG will come from the US, reducing the supply available for domestic consumption.
Kuppy sold his SandRidge, but I think SD still is a buy under $8.50 for a $17 target.
Primary Risk: Natural gas prices fall.
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Time-lapse of an oil and gas well being drilled from pad preparation all the way to production of the well.
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h/t subscriber Foster Goodwill
* * * * *
Your exploring ARK Invest insights Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Antares Pharma (ATRS) – Buy under $5, first target $10, then $50
Aptose Biosciences (APTO) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
Biocept (BIOC) – Buy under $5 for a target of $60 in an acquisition
CohBar (CWBR) – Buy under $2, hold a long time
Compass Pathways (CMPS) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA) – Buy under $5, target $15 or $25
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI) – Buy under $9, target $15
TG Therapeutics (TGTX) – Buy under $40, target price $80+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Facebook (FB) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Velo3D (VLD) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Rocket Lab (RKLB) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) – Buy under $25, target price $50
ALPS Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII.TO) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA) – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Oil
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
SandRidge Energy (SD) – Buy under $8.50 for a $17 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF) – Hold for CEO comment
Apple Computer (AAPL) – Hold for 5G iPhones
Sells
iShares MSCI Japan Exchange-Traded Fund (EWJ)
Global X MSCI Greece Exchange-Traded Fund (GREK)
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First!
2nd
MM–on TGTX, you said “The hold is not based on new information, but prior concerns that will be addressed at the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee meeting in March or April.” Then why the 40% drop today, which would only be logical if there was bombshell NEW information? Halting trials for 2-3 months is not significant if the ODAC meeting will restart the trials.
Also, “TG now has that data and is about to submit it to the FDA. It shows a lower hazard ratio – I suspect it’s under 1.0.” What makes you think this?
For MS alone, what are your odds for failure at the PDUFA in Sept?
The stock has plunged so much that you should get more realistic about the target price upon MS approval.
Thanks. Is MS worth $45/sh, assuming good sales years after approval? What price do you think it will hit on approval, just for MS, or adding in CLL/NHL?
SCYX–On YMB, Federico posted script numbers from Symphony. Sept 792, big jump to 1320 in Oct, 1340 in Nov, 1490 in Dec. Looks like slow growth for the last 3 months. What do you think? Can you post Symphony monthly numbers in the future? Thanks.
Nothing on INO??
They haven’t answered me. They’ll report the quarter around March 1.
Why all the silence since 11/30? Do you think they are working on a deal or partnership and can’t say anything yet?
on tgtx i missed the first half of the call this morning and after listening to the hole call i think we have a fair chance on CLL.
Agree
Not so fast about retail investor sentiment….read this….or buy backs (really means replenish management equity awards).
https://www.grantspub.com/almostDailyHTML.cfm?dcid=997&article=2&email=tarltonlong%40icloud%2Ecom
Thank you. Grants seems well thought out and articulate.
@Michael Murphy. Another outstanding Radar Report. The data you display about a GDP about to collapse a bit or more is very enlightening. Hard to get that kind of news with the ebullience of CNBC talking heads. I want to say, “That’s enough” as both my growth and balanced portfolios looked like mirror images today. Hopefully. the time will come for Gold, as Powell will waffle under his apparent need to threaten lots of rate increases in the near term. Great observations on that. Well, we are expecting some real snow in the northeast this weekend. The closure of outside activities tomorrow might give some more time for traders to “get to work” finding some bargains. GLTA
MM suggestion-question: At the end of each Radar Report under “All Recommendations,” why not also show the current price ?
Allows the reader to quickly glance where best to allocate/deploy capital without having to look elsewhere for each line item.
Seems easy to do.
Good idea, thanks.
You are welcome. One of the best things about your newsletter is that everyone can see you what everyone else (who posts) is thinking.
Thanks to Doyle on your post (last RR) on MDNA. It has held up quite well the last couple of down days. (The big 1000 point downdraft and reversal and the other sister day a few days later) I bought some more on Monday @ $1.48.
More good news today.
http://ir.medicenna.com/news-releases/news-release-details/medicenna-announces-formation-its-scientific-advisory-board
Nice day today, but on low volume. Establishment of a scientific advisory board is fine, but it isn’t the substantive news we are looking for, like partnership for MDNA 55. The stock will probably lose some of today’s gain. Look at the long term chart. It could fizzle to $1 or less.
Very impressive. Thanks for the info. Stock was up again the last few days.
Here is a wrinkle to the Cathie Woods daydream. EV’s are not going to appear in droves overnight. One of the big issues is battery technology. Currently the lithium battery is expensive and old school. It also has limited range and longer charge times. So EV autos have to transition out of that and into solid state batteries. And it’s a time consuming effort to accomplish just that. Secondly , we already have issues in the summer months at several locations with brown outs and electricity capacity. What’s going to happen when thousands of EV’s need to be charged during peak use hours? Are we going to build more nuke plants? If so that’s 10 years in the making. (If you can get the people to OK that.) And solar is NOT a 24 hour source.(we don’t have enough capacity with that to meet our needs now either and the build out is years in the making.
Also power generation is mostly done with coal fired plants that pollute and people are not going to want to build more of them either. Or they run on natural gas , which is an oil byproduct and currently we don’t want any more of that.
I even heard some discussion that the power grid would take back power in your plugged in EV if it was necessary and you would have to wait for them to recharge your car. So if you happen to have an emergency in the middle of the night and the grid sucked all your EV power out , you would have to manage that. Just sayin.
OMG the sky is falling!! Quick, get into your gas guzzling Escalade and go fill it up at 4 bucks a gallon!
Reality check. I trickle charge my Tesla about 2-3 hours a day which generally covers the 15-20 miles I drive per day. The average driver goes about 29 miles per day.
My electric bill goes up a whopping 5 bucks per month and I haven’t been to a gas station since June.
On a recent road trip to Florida, I had to stop 2 times to charge for 20 minutes each. Quite relaxing.
China is planning to be all electric by 2030 and the WILL build nuke plants as there is little regulation over there.
Tesla is building a massive charging infrastructure mostly juiced by plants using natural gas. Coal only makes up about 19% of our energy and with a bit of a push ( get rid of Manchin) we can eliminate coal fired plants. Most operators have moved past coal as it is more expensive and dirty. I know my provider, Duke energy is building massive solar farms here in NC and SC so maybe they think it’s a good alternative? Hint … you can use battery storage when the sun goes down. Also hint .. wind farms don’t cause cancer.
Lithium is a problem obviously but I suspect there is quite a bit more in the ground and as prices increase there will be strong motivation to dig it up.
Longer term, hydrogen should be the direction but meanwhile this is working out very well and very fast .. hint .. get rid of your gas guzzler.
Oh and TSLA stock … well that looks horrible at the moment but if you DCA into it you will be very happy.
Michael i belive your right on EV but a lot of peaple will end up getting dragged into it. Hydrogen fuel cell is long term EV best outcome lithium bridge and some form of point of use on sight and grid buffing battery, EV, stationary or combo.
have you or anyone else looked at QS for lith ion battery.
Hudrogen is an energy carrier, not a source of energy. It is generally made by using energy to make it – you know stuff like coal.
Sing as song for Willy for Willy is not more for what he thought
was water was H2SO4 !
sure thing jcs
something like 4% green from electrolysis. the rest from 18% coal 30%oil 50% nat gas the bulk from steam reform = something like 6 ton co2 for every ton H. most
anyone fallowing QS
sure thing jcs
something like 4% green from electrolysis at app.$1500/ton. the rest from 18% coal 30%oil 50% nat gas the bulk from steam reform = something like 6 ton co2 for every ton H at app.$500/ton. By “down the road” in my reference to H fuel cells being a transportation solution; im referring to H created by electrolysis using excess electricity from a Green source like PV, wind, and geothermal, nuc. ect. I dont know how or if it ever would be cost a effective use of excess power. when it could go to pumped hydro or compressed air. But thats not hear yet so we will keep using the last generation of fuel and save the -50k coal mining jobs in the USA that are so so important some of us.
and i will pass on the sulfuric acid but thanks anyway
I wasn’t saying the sky was falling. I am only trying to point out the potholes/land mines in the yellow brick road on the way to an “all electric world” Fossil fuels contribute 60.6 percent to all electric generation. Renewables 19.8 percent. Of which Wind is 8.4 percent and solar is 2.3 percent. There are 113,000 charge stations in the US. Of which 41,300 are in California for a population of 39.1 million people to share. The balance of 72,300 charge stations will be shared by 209,128,094 adults 18 and over. Biden goal is to have 500,000 by 2030. At which point it’s projected to have 50 percent of automobiles to be electric. Today there is 276 million registered automobiles. In 2030 (if there is no additional gas cars on the road) there will still be 138 million gas guzzlers on the road minimum. And finally batteries. Your Tesla (which the average Joe six pack can’t afford) has batteries that cost from $20,000 to $35,000 to replace. That means a big share of the EV cost is for the batteries. If EV ‘s are going to get widespread in the auto world they will have to get cheaper. Batteries will have to get better and cheaper. My point is that oil will be around much longer than expected. As for the nuke’s in China. It takes 10 years to get one nuke plant up and running in the US (if you can get it approved) I don’t know how fast China can do it , but I suspect it’s not overnight.
My Model 3 cost 39,500 last June. Pretty average price for a sedan. I think they are around 44k now which isn’t ridiculous for the fastest IPAD on the road 🙂
Seriously, anyone on the board, go test drive a 3 or model Y. I guarantee you will love the experience. It’s really quite amazing.
BTW … also buy TSLA stock. That PE keeps compressing in a good way as E is skyrocketing. Also, I think Elon is quite serious about an AI robot as labor .. 80 trillion dollars in human labor. The future is robots.
Can your job be done by robots?
You say we will need lots more electric power to charge all the new EVs. Well, that means the gas guzzlers won’t be guzzling gas, the owners will be driving EVs instead. And since the gas guzzlers get 15-32 mpg and the EVs closer to 100mpg, that’s less energy used for transportation, and a lot of gas doesn’t bother getting produced or is used to create the electricity that you say won’t be able to be generated.
I think we will be going back to horses. Perfectly ecological.
Reality check on lithium and EV.
http://hosted.verticalresponse.com/1016311/9a45cd92f3/TEST/TEST/
The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that annual worldwide Lithium production capacity is 91,000 metric tons.
i dont know but that sounds like thats not a limit its capacity, it changes.
MM, what would be a fair buy-out offer for TGTX TODAY?
$45, but they wouldn’t take it. This is a Lindsay Rosenwald company and he plays for top dollar.
Stupidity is being greedy rather than realistic. That’s TN as well as Rosenwald. Competition among treatments is always THE reality. Whatever price TGTX is upon MS approval, I’ll take it.
The rate hike panic is officially over: Atlanta Fed just came out with a 0.1% Q1 GDP estimate. Watch as Fed speakers hit 1800 next week on hiking intentions.
How would this correlate with cryptocurrency going forward which seems to have reached support levels in both BTC and ETH?
MM: I have a significant position in TGTX. If you could possible stay close here and advise as you see fit it would be greatly appreciated.
MM–also, please answer the questions a few of us posed above. Thanks.
Michael M, May I ask your opinion on one of your original recommendations: ARNA, when it was <$1.00
What do you think ARNA insiders are hoping for when Pfizer has offered $100/share? No one is saying anything. What would it be worth now? Still holding some.
I sold my remaining ARNA shares at $92 a few weeks ago. The $100 buyout is subject to regulatory approval in quite a few months. Slight risk of that. Don’t be greedy, take the profit as is. Don’t hold for pie in the sky promises. Any of these drugs could fail in the marketplace due to lots of competition.
I agree with JGMD. A higher offer from someone else is unlikely, and this market drop has created many opportunities to deploy cash. I’d sell now.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3793823-one-of-the-largest-biotech-etfs-has-the-second-highest-short-interest-float-of-us-etfs?mailingid=26551193&messageid=2900&serial=26551193.8827&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=26551193.8827
MRNA and CRSP look like phenomenal values at this price with P/E’s of 10 and 12 respectively. I’m in medium for both names.
Sold ARNA in My Grandaughters college fund. She’s in 7th grade. Would love to have your suggestions for a 6 year investment.
TSLA all day and night. It WILL be rocky though.
Sold ARNA in My Grandaughters college fund. She’s in 7th grade. Would love to have your suggestions for a 6 year investment.
saw this on Yahoo Finance :
Could Inovio Pharmaceuticals Become the Next Moderna?
Would you prefer: When Pigs Fly or When mRNA becomes DNA?
the next ARTH is more likely.
ARTH – they announced on Twitter yesterday a new hire to lead “current and planned clinical trials throughout 2022”. I remain hopeful that this will be a big year for ARTH.
Even if they get internal approvals, ARTH has yet to show significant sales for well established dermal and GI uses. Where’s the money coming from to pay the new hire? How much sales revenue have the recent hires produced?
MM?
NVTA
Invitae: Underdog turned core player — On the future of genomic testingPart 1 — Bull case on Invitae and how genomic testing could become a winner-take-most industry
Christina Ren, MS, CGC
https://healthandwealth.substack.com/p/invitae-part-1-bull-case
No comment on FB and the MetaDump it left on my carpet?
The new Radar Report for 2.3.22 is posted.