Dear New World Investor:
The consensus forecast for Friday morning’s January payrolls addition is only +150,000, following December’s weak +199,000. Late last summer, Fed Chairman Powell said he wanted to see monthly payroll additions around +1,000,000 before he raised interest rates.
Wall Street’s panicky projection of a 1.25 percentage point total rate increase this year (five quarter-point hikes) is now almost a certainty (98.9% probability), according to the Fed funds futures market.
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I think that is absurd. Everyone knows the monthly inflation numbers will start falling in March or April. If inflation is a longer-term problem, why can’t the yield on the 10-year Treasury note meaningfully pierce 1.85% to the upside? And why is the yield on the 30-year bond stuck under 2.2%, below its pre-pandemic level?
The answer is that the Fed is way behind the curve and the real problem in 2022 is avoiding a recession – not the best environment to have a midterm election. The bond market is sniffing out what’s coming. This is important because the yield on the two-year Treasury note minus the yield on the 10-year note not only predicts recessions, it causes them.
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The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow first estimate for March quarter growth is only +0.1%, while the Blue Chip economists are at +2.8%. BofA just cut from +4.0% to +1.0%.
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It would be very easy for the Fed to cause a recession this year – and they must know it.
Market Outlook
After four up days and today’s down day, the S&P 500 added 3.5% since last Thursday. Index companies are reporting year-over-year December quarter earnings growth above 20% for the fourth straight quarter (24.3%). The Index is down 6.1% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3.9% and had 90% upside volume on Monday. There have been none of those in the last five years. Also, on Friday and Monday the Composite rallied over 3% on back-to-back days following at least a six-month low. That has only happened five other times, four of which marked a bottom. It averaged a return of 47% a year later.
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The Naz still is in correction territory for the year, down 11.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 moved up 3.1% but also is in correction territory, down 11.3% in 2022.
Keep an eye on the S&P 500’s 200-day moving average at 4442. The Index broke back above this threshold Monday, on its way to the 50-day moving average at 4623. Falling below 4442 could set off a downside waterfall, while breaking above 4623 would at least send the newbie bears to the sidelines. Small options traders spent $6.5 billion buying put options to open last week – an all-time high. Volatile intraday action, scary headlines, and a plunge in speculative stocks triggered panic that was 40% higher than even the worst week in March 2020. That’s a contrary indicator that says we’re going up from here.
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The fractal dimension correctly signaled that a deeper correction was not starting two weeks ago and clearly is back in consolidation mode. I’d like to see a couple of weekly closes over the 61.8% retracement level – we were there yesterday – and the fractal dimension near 60 to provide the energy for a move up to the old highs.
Top 5
Changes this week: Added FB for both a near-term bounce and long-term. Short-term, it replaced AG. I still think silver is headed much higher, but the dollar strength (it’s transient) is a headwind. Long term, FB replaced MDNA just because I think the metaverse opportunity is much larger.
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
MDNA Medicenna – Partner for MDNA55
SD SandRidge Energy – Skyrocketing natural gas prices this winter
FBMeta – Bounce from overdone selloff
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPHGraphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
Economy
Get a crash course in monetary economics in just 1.5 hours. @FedGuy12 knows his stuff.
Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 387,328,395 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 312,683,521have run their course. Of those, 306,958,612 recovered and 5,724,909 died – a record low case fatality rate of 1.8%.
In the US, there have been 76,995,954 confirmed infections, of which 48,099,426 have run their course. Of those, 47,180,554 recovered and 918,872 died, a record low case fatality rate of 1.9%.
Daily cases have plunged two-thirds from the January 14 peak of 885,567 to 293,439, It’s almost over.
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Hospitalizations peaked on January 24 at 146,532.
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Daily deaths may have peaked on January 29.
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The population over five years old has hit the 80% vaccination level experts said marked herd immunity.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, February 4
January payrolls – 8:30am – 150,000 expected
Tuesday, February 8
SFTBY – Softbank – 2:30am – Earnings conference call
Wednesday, February 9
MDNA – Medicenna – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
Short Interest – After the close
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $6.23) got a Canadian patent (No. 3101853) for treating interstitial lung disease, including idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, with Ifenprodil. This is their first granted patent for a repurposed drug. They have filed corresponding patent applications in the US, Europe, China, and Japan.
CEO Chris Moreau and two psychedelic drug experts gave a 10-minute presentation on why DMT might work or stroke:
AGNPF is a Hold.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $3.40) said the FDA accepted its New Drug Application resubmission for Tlando, their oral drug for testosterone replacement, with a fast PDUFA date of March 28. Tlando got tentative approval a while ago from the FDA and the agency said it will be eligible for final approval and marketing in the US after the exclusivity period for Clarus Therapeutics’ Jatenzo expires on March 27, 2022.
Antares has a national sales meeting at the end of April and will launch after that. ATRS is a Strong Buy up to $5 for a $10 target price based on Xyosted and EpiPen sales, and $50 in three to five years, as they and their partners introduce numerous new products.
Primary Risk: Xyosted prescriptions stop growing or other products don’t sell well.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of first FDA approval: Approved
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.65) named a strong scientific advisory board of immunologists to guide MDNA11 development. Buy MDNA under $4 for a first target of $40, then maybe $80.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: mid-2022
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $172.90) sold 2.3 million iPhones in India in the December quarter, up 34% from a year earlier, according to numbers from the market research firm Counterpoint. China’s Xiaomi sold 9.3 million and South Korea’s Samsung sold 7.2 million. But due to the iPhone’s high price point, Apple had the highest revenue at $2.09 billion, edging out Samsung at $2 billion.
Over the past 5 years, Apple’s debt to equity ratio has increased from 66.5% to 170.7%. This is what happens when you keep rates too low for too long. Companies with no need to borrow still do because fiscally it’s the most prudent thing to do.
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AAPL is a Hold for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Corning (GLW – $42.61) raised their quarterly dividend 12.5% to 27¢ a share. Management said: “We are again meeting the Strategy & Growth Framework goal of at least 10% annual increases through 2023.”
After last week’s strong earnings report, Barclays reiterated their Overweight rating and raised their target price from $47 to $52. JPMorgan raised from $45 to $50. Goldman Sachs upgraded from Neutral to Buy and raised their target from $38 to $50. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My first target is $60 in 2022.
Meta Platforms (Formerly Facebook – FB – $237.76) lost $252 billion in market capitalization today, a 26.4% decline and the biggest wipeout in history. It was way overdone, which is why I made the stock a Top 5 short-term buy. The last big drop in FB was 19% on July 26, 2018, after the June 2018 quarter earnings. The stock closed at $176.26 that day and was 35% higher today.
They reported December quarter revenues up 20.0% from last year to $33.67 billion. beating the consensus by $230 million. But earnings of $3.67 missed by 16¢. Daily average users were up 5% to 1.93 billion and monthly average users grew 4% to 2.91 billion.
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On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), the boy who cried wolf CEO Mark Zuckerberg yet again guided under the consensus for the current quarter, projecting revenues of $27 billion to $29 billion (3% to 11% growth from 2021) versus the $30.27 billion consensus.
Advertising revenues grew in every geography.
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FB is a Buy under $320 – and here we are! – for a $400 target in 2022.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $65.39) December quarter revenues fell 2.4% from last year to $7.24 billion, clobbering the consensus for $6.65 billion. Pro forma earnings per share of $1.87 beat the $1.61 estimate. But those earnings excluded a $1.25 billion charge for losing a patent case to ViiV Healthcare, owned by Glaxo SmithKline.
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On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management guided for 2022 sales of $23.8 billion to $24.3 billion with GAAAP earnings per share of $4.70 to $5.20 and pro forma earnings of $6.20 to $6.70.
The company ended the year with $7.8 billion in cash. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $105 for a first target of $130.
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,806.10) seems to have a big buyer who buys every time it goes under $1,800 an ounce. Since breaking above $1,800 in July 2020, gold has dipped below that price 19 times on a closing basis, only to regain its footing every time.
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This “whale” activity doesn’t show up in exchange-traded fund holdings or in futures. That requires a substantial buyer, accumulating in size in the London over-the-counter market while leaving little or no footprint, and then taking delivery to store the metal in secure, invisible vaults. That points strongly toward a sovereign buyer. My bet is Russia or China. Russia recently revealed record-high stockpiles of gold and Swiss gold exports to China are at multi-year highs.
Gold continues its historic consolidation – in the future, you’ll be able to say you saw it live. Goldman Sachs just raised its 12-month forecast from $2,000 to $2,150.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Square, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $36,975.84) is consolidating between $35,000 and $40,000. This is a relatively low risk time to buy the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $24.63) under net asset value.
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Bitcoin over time:
2010: No one uses it
2011-2012: Only cyberpunks use it
2013-2014: Only criminals use it
2015-2016: Only nerds use it
2017-2018: Only speculators use it
2019-2020: Only small firms use it
2021: Only small countries use it
2022: Matter of US national security
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Oil – $90.00 (recent record)
US producers are draining their backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) at a rapid pace. The December reading of 4,616 is the lowest since early 2014 and represents a precipitous decline of 48% from the pre-Covid high.
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In reality, DUC inventory shortages are almost certainly worse than reported. Historically, 95% of wells drilled have been completed within two years. DUCs older than two years are considered “dead” and the probability they are completed falls drastically. So the inventory of live DUCs likely to be completed is likely way over-reported, and we are closer to the energy abyss than people think. Got OIL?
OPEC+ didn’t even discuss President Biden’s request that they increase production faster. This week’s meeting lasted just 16 minutes, setting a new speed record. They agreed to maintain the oil production increase by another 400,000 barrels a day for March.
But that’s a joke. They may be increasing production on paper, but it is not materializing in the physical markets. Russia is having noticeable problems due to a lack of spare capacity.
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As Doomberg just said: “With demand for oil and gas already surpassing pre-Covid levels and set to rip higher once the global economy fully reopens, the stage is set for an epic blowoff top in energy prices.”
Oilprice.com wrote an eye-opening article: Low Oil Inventories Suggest Imminent Supply Deficit.
The whole West Texas Intermediate curve is now moving in unison and not just the front of the curve. People are finally starting to price in the Biden/Fink Energy Crisis. The whole curve eventually will invert to price in future shortages. Got July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) under $55 for a $200+ target?
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The price of oil actually is lagging the inverse of inventories – it will catch up.
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On a four-week average basis, the Energy Information Administration continues to peg US oil demand at a record high for this time of the year. The latest data puts demand at 21.64 million barrels a day, the highest ever for late January, and the highest in absolute terms since August 2019.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.35) is a Buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
SandRidge Energy (SD – $12.16) will benefit from high natural gas prices that will extend long past the heating season. Past dumb decisions are being compounded by President Biden’s antipathy to fracking and Larry Fink’s all-in support of the ESG extremists.
New England sits 200 miles away from the largest natural gas field in the world. But it decided to shun pipelines and instead compete with global buyers to attract Liquified Natural Gas cargoes from foreign sources. New England is now paying over $30/mcf today for natty – more than Europe TTF at $28 and Asia JKM LNG at $27. That’s the first time this season New England is paying a premium to Europe/Asia LNG. SD is a buy under $8.50 for a $17 target.
Primary Risk: Natural gas prices fall.
* * * * *
* * * * *
February 3, 1959 – The Day The Music Died
* * * * *
Your worried about three fronts Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $3.40) – Buy under $5, first target $10, then $50
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.19) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.12) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.22) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
Biocept (BIOC – $2.67) – Buy under $5 for a target of $60 in an acquisition
CohBar (CWBR – $0.31) – Buy under $2, hold a long time
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $14.74) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $9.09) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $3.59) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $10.47) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.65) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $4.50) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.78) – Buy under $5, target $15 or $25
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI – $)3.59 – Buy under $9, target $15
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $10.14) – Buy under $40, target price $80+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $42.61) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Facebook (FB – $237.76) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $65.39) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.23) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $46.69) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $25.56) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $30.95) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $4.89) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Velo3D (VLD – $6.09) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $9.03) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $10.09) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $22.42 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $26.05) – Buy under $25, target price $50
ALPS Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $37.39) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $17.33) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $32.37) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.50) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $9.84) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.67) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.88) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $34.00) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $36,975.84) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $24.63) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,685.76) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $19.67) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $39.08) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – 40.31 – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $18.87) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $35.84) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.38) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.15) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Oil
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.35) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
SandRidge Energy (SD – $12.16) – Buy under $8.50 for a $17 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $6.23) – Hold for CEO comment
Apple Computer (AAPL – $172.90) – Hold for 5G iPhones
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2nd
MM : Disappointed there was nothing on TGTX here, especially with the FDA’s latest announcement…
To me, the FDA’s latest announcement is just a repeat of the recent slightly negative one, nothing new? There was a nice V recovery from $8 to $12 in the shares. Maybe yesterday’s drop to $10 is just 50% retracement of that move.
Good call, MM. Do you agree?
Sorry, what announcement? The latest FDA news I have is the TGTX Jan 27 8-K. https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1001316/000155837022000487/tgtx-20220127x8k.htm
Another one bites the dust. Great job special forces in Syria.
MM – I don’t understand why ATRS doesn’t make your Top 5, its the only STRONG buy on this report besides Crypto – can you explain?
I agree. ATRS appears to be very well run – with a very promising commercialized product set.
ATRS can keep grinding out upside for years. But there’s no dramatic catalyst short-term and longer-term others have more possible reward (with higher risk)
which Stock price moves up faster MDNA or ATRS? or a 3rd option (besides META)?
467000k non farm payroll
so much for the one interest rate theory?
If March quarter GDP isn’t weak I’ll have to abandon my one Fed funds increase forecast
FB- MM, everybody is talking about an “overreaction” and that this is a wonderful opportunity bla bla bla, so you are not very unconventional in your analysis. I would have preferred a late in the day bounce and a close at or even slightly above $250. Of course, the stock can and will bounce but the message of the breakdown is ominous and reminiscent of the big tech, CSCO for example, collapse in 2000. In less than 3 years CSCO went from $70 to $7, so Caveat Emptor.
Wise words, but Oculus already dominates VR headsets and I don’t think FB’s metaverse pivot is just PR.
FB- Stopped out 2 days ago for a small loss but bot right back. Bouncing again this am in a sloppy market, it will be interesting to see if it can get to $250 and above this run and start filling that huge gap it left behind. I have no idea about this Metaverse thing though it is catching fire, so also long U for a bounce which happens to be a leader in metaverse software tools.
Just an opinion: Aside from biotech being in a bear market since Nov – the $20 for $1 strategy is dependent on both diversification and hitting a really big winner every once in awhile. While you wait things tend to erode – due to development failures and dilutive financings (some of which are especially destructive like CWBR’s). The problem is – there haven’t been any big winners in quite awhile. NVTA was certainly a candidate, and we probably all should have pulled the trigger at $56 … but sometimes those extreme upside price targets can over-ride common sense.
Correction: Biotechs, as per the XBI index, made a top in mid-February 2021. If it had been a correction, the down move would have probably ended around August/September of last year. As Biotechs, with very few exceptions, continued their downward spiral, they are today in a bona fide Bear Market that is almost exactly one year old. They normally last longer than that, 1 to 3 years; so the sector should be thoroughly avoided.
Except Big Pharma is flush with cash earning nothing, major drugs coming off patent to go generic, and dwindling R&D pipelines just as biotech is dirt cheap. When the M&A starts it should lift all the boats.
If I were a Big Pharma company, I might spend some cash on only good projects that have proved themselves, not risky early stage biotechs. Otherwise, it is prudent to hold on to cash earning nothing. If most of a big company’s assets is in good revenues from established drugs, and cash is a small percentage of assets, it is more prudent to sit tight.
XBI- Except that your rosy scenario would be promptly telegraphed by the XBI in explosive fashion. That index is very stuck in a $85-$95 range instead, down from a high of $174.79 in February 2021 and quite listless and moribund; so no cigar.
think it went to $60 ; regret not having sold…
MM thanks for posting the Joseph Wang podcast…really great back and forth with the host from the Great White North, eh? Wondering if he’s related to Bob & Doug McKenzie.
https://youtu.be/-9x8J_8WQA0
INO
https://www.newswise.com/articles/wistar-scientists-move-hiv-vaccine-research-forward-by-developing-an-immunogen-that-produces-tier-2-antibodies-the-kind-that-matter-for-combatting-hiv
Good afternoon all @Michael Murphy. Another excellent Radar in an environment of “what is moving the market this hour?” Couldn’t believe the roller coaster response to the +477K jobs number, Late with Radar today due to ice approaching prep here in NE. Market responding back to a lot of the hits in chip land. Banks looking well. Finding analysis like yours is hard these days. I looked for anomalies in the jobs number. One or two mentioned upticks on Unemployment. Others raved like jobs were the “second coming.” Your take on oil is quite good, IMHO. Although I only have TPL, I am tempted with OIL. Our prez is so addicted to sugar plum dreams of temperature and carbon shutdowns is the only thing keeping him from re-opening Keystone and the Arctic and Alaska assets, Liked your piece with Dr Pippa, mainly because I did some military stuff during that Cuban thing with getting Navy and private ships ready. Pippa was a JFK security advisor, it appears. I wonder: “What ever happened to our use of the Monroe Doctrine, when our adversaries make homes in our hemisphere? (Arctic, South America, Caribbean?) Best wishes to all for a positive week ahead.
interesting read and comparison to two of MM’s biggest recommendations – looks like even the staunch and conservative Barons is warming up to Crypto!
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-bitcoin-could-beat-oil-51643914087
MM – I understand that staking may be available now or soon on ETHER holdings, what can you tell me about that and how to stake my ETHER to earn more ETHER?
FB- “Overreaction”, I guess unjustified, continues unabated, few minutes before the close the stock is down more than 5% on big volume. Looks like MM caught a classic “falling knife”.
We mentioned in our comment above on Friday that the stock “had” to hold $250.- to be tradeable/investable short term; having failed to do so the continuing collapse is unsurprising.
FB- Peter Thiel resigning from Meta Board. I guess jumping off the sinking ship.
(Bloomberg) — Peter Thiel, the tech investor and conservative provocateur who has advised Mark Zuckerberg for nearly two decades at Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc., will step down from the company’s board after Meta’s annual shareholder meeting in May.
Thiel, 54, who became a director in 2005 after an early investment in Facebook, plans to increase his political support of former President Donald Trump’s agenda during the 2022 election and doesn’t want his political activities to be a distraction for Facebook, according to a person close to Thiel.
His focus will be on backing Blake Masters, JD Vance and others who advance the Trump agenda, the person added, referring to Republican candidates for U.S. Senate.
FB-Well, yeah, maybe just resigning for political reasons. But then there is the looming fight with the EU with the potential threat by Mr. SugarMountain (ZuckerBerg) to shut down FB, Instagram etc. to Europeans for weeks. Oh boy, the hits keep on coming.
Having said that, $220 tested this am, that ought to be enough for now SO I picked up 500 shares FOR A BOUNCE with a stop at $219.50.
A new world – the conglomerates are spinning off. Also the big money folks are playing the game – split the core company from the embellishments is the game of the day. And a rush to invisable cash (AKA bit coin et al) along with the thunders from the opposite side of the world do not make for a mess – and DC is playing a vote comination game. So what is the path for us little guys – Cash/Gold/????
@Michael Murphy and all: Today, Kathi Wood had some very interesting things to say about where this economy is going, especially, in the context of her fund which is focused on innovation has tanked during the year while other like fintech and autonomous vehicles, etc, have done better. From the link below from Reuters, my question would be, if Wood is right, how would our portfolio fare in that context?
ARK’S Wood sees coming slowdown in U.S. economy as oil prices spike | Reuters
Hot of the press. Putin is killing two birds with one stone. He is using Ukrainian possible
aggression as a distraction and taking over the economy of Belarus . And no one is watching.
@Michael Murphy and all. Talking heads on CNBC mentioning unusual strength in gold. Just popped to $1833, up $5. 50.. Could this be the day we go thru resistance, even with a market rally overall?
@Michael Murphy and all, Kathi Wood announces a big stake in Invitae.
Sec Form 13G Filing – ARK Investment Management LLC @ Invitae Corp – 2020-10-09 (secform4.com)
I’d feel better if her big stake announcement was about a moment later than March 31, 2020, after which she started selling many many shares.
happened in 2020 right ? we did touch $ 60…now its way down and how does 2020 Kathi investing help now ?
Good Morning all. Inflation data up .0.6% vs 0.4% est. highest since August of 1982.Wages not keeping up with inflation. Rents up big. Used car prices up big. Not a good number.50% chance of a half point raise. Financials just jumped. GLTA
Thanks, Donald.
MM–Temporary (maybe not so temporary) supply chain problems with chips and other raw materials may reduce inflation for used and new car prices. However, this has nothing to do with inflation in rent, and housing prices. Inflation is overwhelmingly caused by money printing, which overcomes productivity advances from tech. Louis Navellier says the Fed won’t raise rates much, because of the extreme debt which will get much worse with higher rates. So inflation will continue, until it stays high for too long. Then the bond market and the Fed will agree that rates MUST go much higher, as Paul Volcker did.
I am surprised this announcement didn’t move the price more than it has. https://ir.scynexis.com/press-releases/detail/273/scynexis-announces-positive-results-from-its-pivotal-phase
Nothing all that impressive. 65% VVC cure rate for Brexa compared to 53% with placebo. I wrote last year that the proper trial for best efficacy would be a 7-10 day treatment period, which is presently being done with generic azole drugs like fluconazole. So far, growth in Brexa scripts lately has been minimal. Someone on YMB has contributed weekly scripts via Symphony. MM should do this.
The real life-threatening fungal infections are where the drug should be most beneficial. I am sick of hearing about these poorly designed VVC trials that aren’t game-changers, although there is some benefit for Brexa.
The new Radar Report for 2.10.22 is Posted.