Dear New World Investor:
Stocks took a big hit today as the headline Consumer Price Index for January came in at +7.5% year-over-year. Due to the base effect, February could be as bad, but March should start a multi-month trend of lower increases. After very strong Treasury auctions this week for both the 3-year and 10-year notes, with record foreign buying, the 10-year yield ticked up today to 2.031% – its first foray above 2% since July 2019.
Wall Street is now talking about a half-point Fed funds increase at the March meeting and is very bearish. Goldman Sachs says the hedge funds are short selling at record levels:
Click for larger graphic
SentimenTrader’s Jason Goepfert said his gauge of the extent to which investors seek protection via methods like raising cash or buying put options has risen to the highest level since April 2020, near the peak of pandemic-fueled uncertainty. Put-buying has been elevated among both small and large traders, he said. His equity-hedging index climbed above 80% last week for the first time since early April 2020, and “this is only the 33rd week in 22 years that it’s been above that threshold. After 27 of those weeks, the S&P 500 rallied during the next couple of months.”
Click for larger graphic
Only 24.4% of the American Association of Individual Investors are bullish. As I’ve said many times, bull markets end when nearly everyone is bullish and fully invested or on margin.
In spite of today’s drop, the S&P 500 added 0.6% since last Thursday but is down 5.5% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 2.2% and is down 9.3% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 3.0% and now is down 8.6% in 2022.
S&P 500 stock buybacks hit $238 billion in the December quarter, the sixth consecutive sequential increase. That brought last year’s total to nearly $850 billion, topping the previous high-water mark of $806 billion set in 2018. I expect we’ll see a lot more of that this year because S&P 500 companies held an aggregate of $3.78 trillion in cash and equivalents at the end of September. That was up 72% from December 2019, on the eve of the pandemic.
The fractal dimension remains in consolidation mode. I’d still like to see a couple of weekly closes over the 61.8% retracement level – we closed there today – and the fractal dimension near 60 to provide the energy for a move up to the old highs.
Top 5
Changes this week: Sell SD; add NVTA
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
NVTA Invitae – Earnings 2/24
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
MDNA Medicenna – Partner for MDNA55
FB Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 405,699,377 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 331,388,111 have run their course. Of those, 325,584,546 recovered and 5,803,565 died – a flat case fatality rate of 1.8%.
In the US, there have been 78,904,093 confirmed infections, of which 50,261,027 have run their course. Of those, 49,323,606 recovered and 937,421 died, a flat case fatality rate of 1.9%.
Daily cases are down 74.9% from the January 14 peak of 885,567 to 221,868. It’s almost over.
Click for larger graphic
Hospitalizations peaked eight days later on January 22 at 145,624 and are down 31.6% to 99,535.
Click for larger graphic
Daily deaths peaked on January 30, 16 days after diagnosis and eight days after hospitalization, at 2,524 and are down to 2,247.
Click for larger graphic
About three-fourths of the adult population is fully vaccinated.
Click for larger graphic
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Monday, February 14
Wednesday, February 16
MDNA – Medicenna – 8:00am – SVB Leerink Global Healthcare Conference
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 2:20pm – SVB Leerink Global Healthcare Conference
FSLYFastly – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
QUIK – QuickLogic – 5:30pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, February 17
CDE – Coeur Mining – 11:00am – Earnings conference call
NVTA – Invitae – 1:00pm – SVB Leerink Global Healthcare Conference
GRPH – Graphite Bio – 1:40pm – SVB Leerink Global Healthcare Conference
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $5.28) completed enrollment in the Phase 2 trial of ifenprodil for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and chronic cough. They’ll give us the data in the June quarter. AGNPF is a Hold.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Invitae (NVTA – $11.16) had two good Substack articles, one on the bull case and one on the bear case – and both by the same person! You won’t see anything new – either you believe Invitae will become the Amazon of genetic testing, as I do, or you think they won’t and will never be profitable. Buy NVTA under $50 for a first target of $100 and eventually $200+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.78) reported a December quarter loss of nine cents a share. They had C$23.4 million in cash at the end of the quarter, enough to carry them through 2022 and various catalysts, including a mid-2022 readout on the first set of efficacy results from early dose-escalation cohorts in the MDNA11 trial.
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they said they “continue to pursue a partnership to facilitate MDNA55’s further development and commercialization and remain in active discussions towards this goal.”
Click for larger graphic
Buy MDNA under $4 for a first target of $40, then maybe $80.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: mid-2022
ScyNexis (SCYX – $5.11) said the 260-patient Phase 3 trial of Brexafemme (ibrexafungerp) to prevent recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (vaginal yeast infection) was a complete success, as I expected. All primary and secondary endpoints were statistically significant. There were no serious drug-related adverse events or discontinuations due to adverse events.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and CORPORATE PRESENTATION HERE), management said they will file a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for Brexafemme before June 30 and get approval later this year. There are many more spin-off products to come:
Click for larger graphic
Buy SCYX under $24 for a first target price of $54 now that Brexafemme is approved and a buyout at $170.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
Probable time of next financing: 2023 or never
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $172.12) will introduce Tap to Pay on iPhone so small merchants don’t have to use the ubiquitous Square attachments to take credit cards. It will accept Apple Pay, contactless credit and debit cards, and other digital wallets. AAPL is a Hold for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Meta Platforms (FB – $228.07) will be one of the top metaverse companies, and maybe the top. If you are ever going to own it, now’s the time. FB is a Buy under $320 for a $400 target in 2022.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $23.37) reported December third quarter revenues up 6.0% from last year to $13.8 billion and earned 10¢ per share. On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Masayoshi Son said that the Nvidia acquisition of ARM Holdings has fallen through due to the antitrust regulators, so he will take it public. I expect he will get a higher valuation in an IPO.
Softbank owns stakes in public companies worth $49.20 a share. The stock closed today at $23.37, a 52.5% discount. That’s ridiculous in light of their aggressive stock buyback program. SFTBY is a Buy under $30 for a first target of $60 in the next two years.
Other Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $28.62) introduced a web application firewall that protects applications anywhere they live, in the cloud, on a mainframe, or at the edge. Implementing security policies and protection across numerous applications on different devices drives Information Technology managers nuts. This makes it easy. FSLY is a Buy up to $45 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $150+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $10.28) brought forward the launch window for a dedicated Electron mission for Synspective, the Japanese Earth imaging company, to February 28. It was originally scheduled to launch after Rocket Lab’s next mission for another customer, but Rocket Lab has the ability to bring a mission forward and adjust schedules at short notice to meet their customer’s requirements.
Rocket Lab’s first launch for Synspective was in December 2020. This one is the first of two dedicated Electron missions for Synspective in 2022 with a third scheduled for 2023. Each mission will deploy a single StriX satellite, growing Synspective’s synthetic aperture radar (SAR) constellation eventually to 30 satellites to deliver imagery that can detect millimeter-level changes to the Earth’s surface from space, independent of weather conditions on Earth and at any time of the day or night, to collate data of metropolitan centers on a daily basis to support urban development planning, construction and infrastructure monitoring, and disaster response.
CNBC interviewed CEO Peter Beck on Getting to Venus. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk:A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,826.90) is holding in pretty well in the buffeting between the dollar, the CPI, and the FED. It’s the mother of all consolidations, and the next trend up will be one for the record books.
Miners & Related
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.70) announced positive results from the first drill program at the Frost project near Grassy Mountain. President Glen Van Treek said: “We have encountered a robust gold system which could have the potential to generate significant tonnage of economic material.”
Several drill holes intersected significant gold grades, including a five-foot sample with a gold grade of 14.4 grams per tonne and shallow intercepts up to 70 feet averaging 1.04 grams per tonne. PZG is a Buy under $5 for a $10 first target with gold over $1,600 an ounce.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Probable time of next financing: First half of 2022
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Square, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $44,192.03) is still stuck in the $40,000 to $45,000 range, but I expect it to break upwards soon.
Click for larger graphic
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. The Chinese state-backed funds are intervening in the stock market, helping the benchmark CSI 300 Index stage a strong recovery. China’s plunge protection team activity is similar to its actions in late July 2021 when Chinese stocks suffered losses and Hong Kong’s technology sector imploded. That led to a multi-week rally.
Morgan Stanley China A-Share Closed-End Fund (CAF – $18.54) is selling for a discount to net asset value. CAF is a buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
KraneShares CSI China Internet Exchange-Traded Fund (KWEB – $37.83) has been clobbered by Xi Jinping’s tech crackdown, which looks like it’s over. KWEB is a buy under $50 for a double over the next three years.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.55) introduced a next-generation cannabis: Superflux. It has a cannabis flavor curated to preserve the essence of cannabis in all its product forms: flower, vape, live resin, and cured concentrate. It’s available in Illinois, Ohio, and Massachusetts. ACRDF is a buy under $4.49 for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Canopy Growth does not acquire the company.
Oil – $89.98
Remember this from November 9?
“(Bloomberg) — The U.S. government projected that the global oil market will become oversupplied and prices will fall by early next year, cooling expectations that the White House may tap the nation’s emergency reserves.
“Supply increases next year from OPEC nations as well as U.S. drillers will ultimately pressure prices lower. The U.S. benchmark crude will fall below $80 a barrel by December and reach as low as $62 by the end of next year and its global counterpart Brent will average $72 a barrel in 2022, the Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday. U.S. pump prices will drop below $3 a gallon by February, the data show.”
That same Energy Information Administration just raised their price forecast and they still are way behind the curve. West Texas Intermediate crude prices are expected to average $79.35 a barrel, up 11.2% from the previous forecast. There are a few factors I don’t think they are paying attention to.
For OPEC+, it’s another month, another oil production miss. In January, they managed only a 160,000 barrels per day increase from December, versus a 400,000 barrels per day quota increase.
US shale companies have completed the bulk of their Drilled Uncompleted well inventory. Now they have to drill new wells, but there is a major shortage of materials like well casings and labor. A lot of experienced drillers left the industry during the price crash. Plus, the most prolific targets have been drilled – now they are working in marginal territory. And, of course, the ESG folks are doing their best to cut off capital.
Yesterday’s inventory report showed total petroleum stocks down 9.4 million barrels of oil equivalent from last week to the lowest level since April 2014. For the quarter to date, total stocks are down 21 million barrels of oil equivalent, on pace for a significant quarterly draw. Those forecasted March quarter builds are nowhere to be seen.
According to the Energy Information Administration, we are supposed to build close to 1.2 million barrels a day. Instead, we are drawing close to 1.0 million barrels a day. That’s a delta of 2.1 million to 2.2 million barrels a day. Total US oil supplies are at the lowest since 2015.
Click for larger graphic
Look at those inventory draws. US oil demand is already at an all-time high. What do you think happens when jet fuel recovers and we get to the summer driving season? What about when Europe finally re-opens? I think we get $100 oil by midyear.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy the under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.53) is a Buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
SandRidge Energy (SD – $11.73) moves with the price of natural gas, and we’re coming to the end of the winter heating season. There’s a reasonable chance natty prices will fall, so Sell SD for a 47.2% profit in a little over three years.
Primary Risk: Natural gas prices fall.
* * * * *
Mt. Cashmore
Click for larger graphic
Your maybe the Party of Nature Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $3.65) – Buy under $5, first target $10, then $50
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.23) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.12) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.26) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
Biocept (BIOC – $2.61) – Buy under $5 for a target of $60 in an acquisition
CohBar (CWBR – $0.31) – Buy under $2, hold a long time
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $15.37) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $10.19) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $3.54) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $11.16) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.78) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $5.11) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.82) – Buy under $5, target $15 or $25
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI – $3.70) – Buy under $9, target $15
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $10.39) – Buy under $40, target price $80+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $42.49) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Facebook (FB – $228.07) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $61.79) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $23.37) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $48.93) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $28.62) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $33.77) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.35) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Velo3D (VLD – $7.31) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $10.28) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $10.03) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $23.19 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $26.40) – Buy under $25, target price $50
ALPS Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $38.63) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $17.71) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $33.55) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.80) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $10.53) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.70) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.04) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $36.42) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $44,192.03) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $31.00) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,068.41) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $25.76) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $41.29) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $40.44) – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $18.54) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $37.83) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.55) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.18) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Oil
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.53) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $5.28) – Hold for CEO comment
Apple Computer (AAPL – $172.12) – Hold for 5G iPhones
Sell
SandRidge Energy (SD – $11.73)
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
Copyright ©GwynRoseLLC 2022
New World Investor Mastermind Group
1. Post unto others as you would have them post unto you.
2. Keep it clean, like a 1950s family television show. Your alter ego can run free on Twitter.
3. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS! If you don’t like the stock, don’t trash the person. Everyone is responsible for their own due diligence and investments.
4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind. Again, NO PERSONAL ATTACKS!
5. The investment implications of something going on in politics or religion is OK.
6. Of course, there’s never a reason to slur someone based on race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, or country of national origin.
7. Please, no snark!
Print This Post
Nailed it.
2
Why can’t I be that lucky winning the damn Powerball drawings??
First. it is not a zero sum game.
But then it is a fast win you will not find here on NWI.
But then there are the instant taxes
But then you have nothing to do with picking the winner.
But then you won’t met relatives you never know before.
My thoughts exactly, but still very funny. Thanks for the laughs.With all the doom an gloom lately, a good laugh is a very good thing.
3 again,no gold or silver for me.
Another great Radar Michael Murphy. On the external economy from our equities, there is a rumor that truckers in the U.S. do not like our Prez cozying up with support for use of force by the Canadians. I am very familiar with and crossed many times the Ambassador Bridge in Detroit. U.S, That will have major economic effect in the Midwest if nothing soon happens. Truckers are looking for a great big move on DC. Your observation of the echo effect of the inflation topping might just be long enough, in time before the national workforce feels itself catching up with wages before the November elections, IMHO. Happy to hear your assessment of a strong settling posture for gold. Last question. Is there any sense of Fannie and Freddie going private this year? Word is the real estate market has strength for four or five years more?? GLTA
MM – seems like AKBA should be moving into the Near-term best buys with a PDUFA of March 29.
Coming soon – also ATRS (3/28) and later TGTX (was 3/25, but now Advisory Committee)
“Daily cases are down 74.9% from the January 14 peak of 885,567 to 221,868. It’s almost over.”
That massive peak blew away all previous peaks, so a 74.9% drop puts us now at the highest levels ever seen previous to this massive recent peak.
You show graphs of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. In all three, today they are approximately the second highest level ever. “It’s almost over”? That’s just a prediction (guess?) that we soon reach the lowest levels since the start of the pandemic two years ago. You make it sound like its the state of affairs now, which it certainly isn’t. Hospitals are still overwhelmed, and hospital employees are burned out and quitting the profession, as are teachers. Companies are having trouble finding people to hire. People are retiring early, becoming stay-at-home parents, and avoiding jobs with high levels of public contact. Not to mentioned that we have almost a million dead in the US from COVID. Not to mention those disabled from long COVID. Not to mention the worldwide epidemic. Hospital staff are PO’d at dismissive statements like yours. Of course hospital staff have been working long hours, watching people die for two years now, without a break, while you sit in the comfort of your chair at home.
We will see how your prediction turns out next month or …. Hopefully your bull case turns out to a good prediction. I’m not optimistic anymore.
It’s all about R0, the “reproductive number” for a pathogen, or how many cases will be “birthed,” on average, from a single person who is infected. When R0 is above 1.0, cases climb. When it is below 1.0, cases fall and the pandemic ends. R0 can go below 1.0 due to vaccines, immunity from a previous infection, or herd immunity. That’s what is happening now.
You could say the same about the last 4-5 peaks in infections, hospitalizations and deaths. Its going down. This is a global problem, with new variants emerging. And refusal to take steps to curb infections won’t help.
Murphy claims it’s almost over. INO was his vaccine pick and now it’s around 3 bucks.
Can Murphy admit he was dead wrong on INO?
I wonder how badly his average subscriber is doing with a year long bear market for biotech?
SCYX–crucial details and repost of my comments from the last board.
ohiojeff
February 10, 2022 2:44 pm
I am surprised this announcement didn’t move the price more than it has. https://ir.scynexis.com/press-releases/detail/273/scynexis-announces-positive-results-from-its-pivotal-phase
0
Reply
JGMD
Reply to ohiojeff
February 10, 2022 10:22 pm
“Nothing all that impressive. 65% VVC cure rate for Brexa compared to 53% with placebo. I wrote last year that the proper trial for best efficacy would be a 7-10 day treatment period, which is presently being done with generic azole drugs like fluconazole. So far, growth in Brexa scripts lately has been minimal. Someone on YMB has contributed weekly scripts via Symphony. MM should do this.
The real life-threatening fungal infections are where the drug should be most beneficial. I am sick of hearing about these poorly designed VVC trials that aren’t game-changers, although there is some benefit for Brexa.”
In addition, the trial used 1 day Brexa per month for 6 months, and showed some benefit. Brexa is a long acting drug, but my speculation is that this is not as good as every day for 7-10 days. We really need a trial against current standard of care for recurrent VVC, which is 7-10 days with fluconazole. This has NOT been done, and the lackluster script numbers from doctors tell what they really think about this company.
MM, you are way too optimistic by saying, “ScyNexis (SCYX – $5.11) said the 260-patient Phase 3 trial of Brexafemme (ibrexafungerp) to prevent recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (vaginal yeast infection) was a complete success, as I expected. All primary and secondary endpoints were statistically significant. There were no serious drug-related adverse events or discontinuations due to adverse events.”
If you want to support your optimism with facts, please post weekly script numbers from Symphony, or at least monthly numbers.
There are only two facts that count for approval:
I don’t have access to the Symphony numbers, but they often understate prescriptions in a launch.
Brexa has already been approved, but scripts are lackluster. How come a YMB poster got Symphony numbers, but you don’t have access? This latest trial doesn’t give doctors too much confidence. I mentioned several times what kind of trial must be done. Until that is done, expect this company to flounder.
ARTH had minimal sales, if any, as noted just below. This company is terminal. Lovell has done nothing of significance. Same for all the credentialed employees and board members. Face facts.
The 10Q is out for ARTH. I am still holding tight to this story but my quick read of the 10Q states many times that they have just sold their first AC5 and then go on to say that “we really need more money.” Th going concern language uses much more strength in the weakness presentation. They are down to their last million, it appears. Despite an impressive future for the AC5 expansion, it feels more not like watching grass grow but maybe watching stalactites and stalagmites form.
My sarcasm is probably too harsh from watching this market where Gold is looking better.
Here’s the 10Q
0001851734-22-000084.pdf
ARTH – got an email alert that ARTH filed 10Q for 12-31-21. Revenue for the 3 months ended 12/31/21 was $4,696. About what you would expect when a company releases earnings on a Friday afternoon.
I know this doesn’t mean much,but I recently had a chat about arth to one of the financial people at td ,he also stated that at this point in time that he would continue to hold it also because of thee approvals that the company has,your thoughts about the 10q MM would be appreciated also,tx
Anyone follow CRMD?
MM – For a while, including recently, you have been saying SD is about more than the price of natural gas. For a long time you’ve been saying Carl Icahn was probably targeting $16-$17. ? Why did you change it to a sell?
Wondering the same thing, MM.
Bengals win today 21-17. Take the money line.
…
OOPS, stick to stocks
I chickened out on the ML when the spread rose to 4.5 so the Bengals covered that.
I also took the over 48.5 which I lost.
The superbowl is soooo damned drawn out I crapped out before halftime. Boring.
I made 361% on SD in 2 years. THANKS, Michael!
Good News BDSI
08:02 AM EST, 02/14/2022 (MT Newswires) — BioDelivery Sciences shares soared 52% on a proposed takeover by Collegium Pharmaceutical.
Michael would you provide some guidance on a likely timeframe for PZG to obtain final permits at Grassy Mountain and an estimate of what happens to the PZG price if they sell Grassy mtn or partner with someone else to develop it?. Thanks
They filed the permit application on December 22. Oregon has a maximum of 90 days to respond. If they accept, which they should this time, they have a maximum of one year to issue final permits to PZG, so March 22, 2023, at the worst.
The net present value of Grassy alone is $195 million at $1,900 gold or $4.15 per share. Sleeper’s net present value is $233 million at $1,700 gold and $341 million at $2,000 gold – call it $300 million at $1900 gold, or another $6.38 a share.
The Frost Project near Grassy and the Bald Peak Project near Sleeper add to these values. Today, PZG sells at the equivalent of $7 gold.
Do you see a need to raise addtional funds and if so how dilutive do you anticipate it to be?
@Michael Murphy and all: if this is the big move in Gold, how would folks play it best? Trailing stops?
The trouble with trailing stops is they get hit. They can be a good exit strategy if you think something is fully valued/overpriced, but you want to see how high it can go. They don’t make sense if you think an asset is underpriced – the market makers will find a way to stop you out.
Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) made a $5.60 per share all-cash offer this morning for BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI) Don’t sell BDSI yet! It will take COLL at least three weeks to do their due diligence before they could discover a reason they don’t want to proceed with the offer.
In the meantime, if there is another company interested in BDSI they will make a higher bid by next Monday. Because the COLL offer is all-cash, we don’t have to worry about their stock price declining. So there is no downside to holding BDSI for a while to see if this bid flushes out another offer. And, of course, this bid drastically undervalues the potential of BDSI.
Hold BDSI.
MM – what do you consider a fair value bid for BDSI? I see that COLL is up 15% perhaps giving an indication of how low this takeover price is – also a law firm is looking into suing over the takeover price. Would you consider another bidder likely?
I do think there’s a better than average chance of another bidder, recognizing that the average chance is pretty small. We also could see COLL up their bid. Not much risk in waiting.
My question as well. I bought it today at $5.56. I was looking at it a couple of weeks ago but didn’t move on it . My bad. But it still looks promising in my opinion.
MM is COLL A takeover target its self ?
Hey Mike
Would you recommend buying google before the 20 -1 split.
I’ve been thinking about it, yes. Great business, too-high valuation, but the lower post-split price probably will attract buyers.
Medicenna Therapeutics Shares Tick Higher Following Circulation Of Zack’s Small-Cap Research Report Showing $12 Valuation
s27.q4cdn.com/906368049/fil…
“Based on our probability adjusted DCF model that takes into account potential future revenues of MDNA55 and MDNA11, MDNA is valued at $12/share.”
Utter speculation. Where do they get $12? They rate the stock as high risk. No sales through at least 2024.
Zacks is a robotic technical analysis service that I regard as worthless and out of touch with fundamentals. This report is much the same, despite the good science projects of MDNA.
HLOC
JESSE and fellow members.
Hoping for update on their news release of 12/15/2021 regarding
entry into new markets (US) thru acquisitions real soon.
Current Highlights:
no debt
53 million in revenue for the 1st 3 quarters of 2021
10 million cash on their balance sheet
.11 EPS
Expecting large move in stock price real soon. IMO
Arvel thanks for the Heads Up on HLOC .Looks like anice bounce back after yesterdays loss.
Jesse,
HELO’s big announcement out this morning.
possible GAME CHANGER
FSLY being crushed after hours on weak earnings and outlook; now @ $22.48 – down 22.3%.
After waiting years for gold’s big move and finally seeing it near 1900, today’s earnings announcement from CDE comes as a gut punch.
Good Morning all. Well, is this Russo-Ukrainian Gold? Silver seems to tell that story. $1897.40 as I type this. $23.82 for silver.
NVTA
Daniel explores the exciting world of genetic health with Dr. Robert Nussbaum, Chief Medical Officer at Invitae. Dr. Nussbaum dispels myths about interpreting genetic data, draws important distinctions around clinical-grade testing, and describes the many important ways genetic information can be used for reproductive planning, screening, and managing disorders.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/clinical-genetic-testing-state-law-cost-and-myth/id1526564095?i=1000549032348
The new Radar Report for 2.17.22 is posted. Sell BIOC immediately.