Dear New World Investor:
I was wrong. Putin did invade Ukraine – sort of. He recognized two provinces as countries and then launched a very precise attack on Ukraine’s military installations and airfields. He always plays 3D chess, so he must have something up his sleeve. Perhaps it’s that the West needs Russia’s palladium, nickel, natural gas, oil, uranium, grain, and fertilizer. The price of natural gas, already sky-high, jumped over 60% as Germany said Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would not be allowed to open and President Biden sanctioned the company that owns it. As they say in Texas, have fun freezing to death in the dark.
When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the S&P 500 sold off 6% in the first few weeks of the year on worries about a full invasion and then bottomed two weeks before the country was fully occupied. After today’s stock market plunge in Russia, their stocks sell at a forward price/earnings ratio of 4x – not a misprint – and the rouble fell this morning to an all-time low against the dollar.
The obvious investment opportunity here is the VanEck Vectors Russia Exchange-Traded Fund (RSX), a $1.38 billion fund with a 0.61% expense ratio. It mainly holds energy and banks.
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RSX was trading around $30 at the end of October and in the mid-$20s a couple of weeks ago. It’s been slammed in the last several days and got as low as $13.77 this morning before bouncing to close at $15.84. I’m not going to make a formal recommendation of it, but if you’re interested…Nathan Rothschild said to buy when the blood is in the streets, and in Ukraine, the blood is at least on the runways.
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Market Outlook
The S&P 500 lost 2.1% since last Thursday and is down 9.0% year-to-date, including just barely booking its first 10% correction in two years. On average, there are 1.1 declines of at least 10% per year. The odds of it turning into a 15% drop are 45%.
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The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.8% and is down 13.9% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.6% and is down 11.1% in 2022.
The sheer amount of fear and uncertainty right now is very high, with the American Association of Individual Investors survey data showing the level of bearish and neutral investors at the highest since May 2016, just before Brexit. Since 1990, when fear and uncertainty have risen this high, the S&P has averaged 18% returns in the following 12 months. It also hasn’t led to drops of 10% or more in the following months.
But Wall Street is selling fear right now as hedge funds pile into shorts. The latest Morgan Stanley Prime Brokerage report shows net leverage across long/short funds has fallen to just 48%, the lowest level seen since June 2020. Goldman Sachs says a record $1 trillion of puts are being purchased every day. And Morgan Stanley says we are reliving the late 2018 playbook, which will send the S&P tumbling down to 3,800 by the end of March.
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The fractal dimension fell through 55, signaling a downtrend has started. Maybe. The fractals could reverse quickly, but if they don’t we’ll have to assume this could be more serious than a -10% correction. The next week is crucial.
Top 5
Changes this week: replaced NVTA, which reported today, with ATRS. Replaced MDNA (we’ll be back) with AKBA
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
ATRS Antares Pharma – Tlando approval March 28
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat approval March 29
FB Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 431,243,270 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 366,253,762 have run their course. Of those, 360,311,169 recovered and 5,942,593 died – another new low case fatality rate of 1.6%.
In the US, there have been 80,401,555 confirmed infections, of which 53,487,259 have run their course. Of those, 52,519,772 recovered and 967,487 died, matching last week’s case fatality rate of 1.8%
Daily cases have fallen 90% from the mid-January peak to 82,286.
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Hospitalizations are down 63.2% from the mid-January peak.
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Daily deaths are falling steadily and now down to 1,680.
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At some point, medical historians will sort out excess deaths and virus deaths from normal deaths.
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Three-fourths of adults are fully vaccinated.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, February 25
SII – Sprott Inc. – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
Short Interest – After the close
Monday, February 28
RKLB – Rocket Lab – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
Tuesday, March 1
AKBA – Akebia Therapeutics – Earnings release; no call
TGTX – TG Therapeutics – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
INO – Inovio – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
Wednesday, March 2
VLD – Velo3D – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, March 3
ATRS – Antares Pharma – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
Friday, March 4
February payrolls – 8:30am – +400,000 expected
GLW – Corning – 1on1s – Susquehanna Technology Conference
AAPL – Apple – 12:00pm – Annual meeting
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.50) contracted with a supplier to manufacture NP-251 (repirinast) for a new chronic kidney disease research program. In a mouse model of kidney fibrosis, repirinast reduced fibrosis by 50% with statistical significance. It also showed a modest, but significant, synergistic improvement in combination with telmisartan, which is a blood pressure lowering medication and is considered a front line standard of care treatment for chronic kidney disease. Algernon will also investigate the use of repirinast in acute interstitial nephritis. AGNPF is a Hold.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Invitae (NVTA – $9.40) reported December quarter revenues up 25.6% from last year to $126.1 million, right on the $125.9 million consensus estimate. The pro forma loss of 81¢ a share was four cents worse than the -77¢ estimate. Most of their revenues still come from oncology testing, but women’s health, rare diseases, and data are growing rapidly:
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On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they are increasing their data disclosure to show how they can fund their growth to dominate genetic sequencing.
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Management guided for 40% revenue growth in 2022, or approximately $640 million. New guidance categories for 2022 include gross margin and cash burn measures. The quarterly gross profit margin for 2022 is expected to improve steadily from 42% to 45%, exiting the year over 45%.
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The cash burn, including cash used for acquisitions, will be in the range of $600 million to $650 million in 2022, a more than $200 million year-over-year reduction from 2021’s $849 million, which included $280 million for acquisitions.
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Invitae could become one of the largest companies in the world over the next 20 years. We got on NVTA early and we’re going to ride this tiger as long as they execute – I expect all the way.
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Invitae ended the quarter with $1.056 billion in cash. Buy NVTA under $50 for a first target of $100 and eventually $200+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Biotech MegaShift
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $2.15) modified their distribution deal with Vifor. Vifor bought another $20 million of stock, made a $25 million upfront payment, and loaned Akebia $40 million to partially fund the launch supply. In return, Vifor gets to sell to more independent dialysis facilities in the US representing about 60% of the market and still gets 34% of the profits. AKBA is a Buy under $5 for a move to $15 if vadadustat is approved only for dialysis-dependent or $25 if it also is approved for non-dialysis.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved.
Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA filed
Probable time of next FDA approval: March 29, 2022
Probable time of next financing: June quarter of 2022
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI – $5.57) hasn’t attracted another bid. Let’s wait until Monday and then we’ll sell. I will send a Flash Alert. Hold BDSI.
Primary Risk: Slow sales of Belbuca.
Clinical stage of lead product: Already approved
Probable time of first FDA approval: Already approved
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Meta Platforms (FB – $207.60) launched Facebook Reels, their Tik Tok killer, in more than 150 countries. Watching video is half of the time spent on Facebook and Instagram, and Reels is their fastest growing content format by far. FB is a Buy under $320 for a $400 target in 2022.
Other Tech
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $9.89) opened a second launch pad at their Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand and will use it for next week’s launch.
They won a $143 million contract from Tokyo-based MDA to lead the design and manufacture of 17 spacecraft buses for Globalstar’s (GSAT) new Low Earth Orbit satellites. The contract has options to provide the satellite operations control center, launch dispensers, launch integration, and up to nine additional spacecraft with flexibility in timing to order such spacecraft. The satellites will integrate with and replenish Globalstar’s current constellation, ensuring service continuity. Globalstar expects to launch the satellites by the end of 2025. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk:A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Velo3D (VLD – $7.61) announced the Seeing is Believing Additive Manufacturing Tour, which will visit 15 US cities throughout 2022. The event focuses on educating engineers, technology influencers, and key decision makers about the benefits and capabilities of additive manufacturing technology and how Velo3D’s end-to-end solution can transform their businesses. VLD is a Buy up to $11 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,901.90) hit $1,976.50 on Ukraine fears and then backed off to neutral for the week. The fractal dimension finally looks like it is heading down, but it’s a long way from signaling a new trend. It got to such a high congestion level that it will take new all-time highs over $2,035 to be sure a new uptrend has begun…and that will be a BIG uptrend.
Miners & Related
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.28) reported December quarter revenues of $207.8 million, beating the consensus expectation for $206.7 million. But they lost five cents a share, badly missing Wall Street’s forecast for a two cent profit.
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said the total construction capital estimate for the Rochester Mine expansion project is $597 million. So far they have spent $236 million, so they need another $361 million to finish it. When asked where they would get the money, they said their ability to issue equity is “a good thing to have.” Not what Wall Street wanted to hear, and they took the stock to the woodshed.
I don’t think they’ll sell stock, especially at this level. Coeur can finance the expansion by a combination of cash on hand, quarterly cash flow, their existing credit facility, and – if necessary – hedging up to 70% of their 2022 gold production.
They expect gold and silver production to be flat in 2022 and then grow for several years thereafter. The good news on Rochester is the project will dramatically increase production when it comes online in the second half of 2023. CDE is a Buy under $10 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.64) reported the assay results from six holes drilled to the east of the Sleeper pit to find an analog to the original high grade Sleeper vein. Drilling returned grades up to 1.17 grams per tonne of gold, a promising indication of the potential for another high-grade occurrence.
President and COO Glen Van Treek said: “This initial phase is only the beginning of our plans at Sleeper in an effort to exploit the enormous potential of this large system which clearly extends beyond the original high-grade historical pit.”
All good news! PZG is a Buy under $5 for a $10 first target with gold over $1,600 an ounce.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Probable time of next financing: First half of 2022
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.90) reported December quarter sales flat with last year at $29.8 million, just under the $29.91 million expected. The full year had record revenues of $120.7 million. Their average cash cost of gold was only $249 an ounce.
Based on existing royalties, attributable gold equivalent ounces for 2022 are forecast to be between 65,000 and 70,000 ounces. Subject to the conversion of the Hod Maden interest into a gold stream, the company is forecasting attributable gold equivalent production to be over 100,000 ounces in 2025.
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The Hod Maden conversion is a big deal. On February 17 Sandstorm signed a letter of intent to sell its 30% equity interest in the Hod Maden project for a $200 million gold stream on the Hod Maden project. CEO Nolan Watson said: “Our desire is for Sandstorm to be a royalty and streaming company exclusively while ensuring the Company achieves industry-leading growth. The transformation of the Company’s interest in Hod Maden into a gold stream is integral to our corporate strategy of unlocking hidden value in Sandstorm’s portfolio.”
This removes the risk of being a miner and makes Wall Street more comfortable with SAND.
SAND is an excellent way to own precious metals and a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Square, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $38,803.89) got as low as $34,350 in this morning’s panic sell-off before reversing to shoot back up. Interestingly, it was the opposite pattern from gold, so gold won the “best safe haven” prize today.
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. Chinese tech stocks just suffered a two-day rout on fears that dictator-for-life Xi Jinping isn’t done damaging the most vibrant part of the Chinese economy. I think it’s a good bet that he will realize he’s done enough damage.
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $35.85) is a buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
Morgan Stanley China A-Share Closed-End Fund (CAF – $18.04) is a buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
KraneShares CSI China Internet Exchange-Traded Fund (KWEB – $33.95) is a buy under $50 for a double over the next three years.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
Oil – $93.35 (and hit $100.54 today!)
Members of OPEC+ said gradually raising production is enough to balance the market and the group has no need to be more aggressive even if crude goes over $100. They don’t want to see any increase in commercially-stored oil around the world – they like low inventories because it gives them more direct control over prices. They meet again on March 2.
US oil inventories have plunged to multiyear lows below 28 days due to all-time high demand just before the inventory drawdown season is starting. It will be made worse by the “missing oil” problem.
I think the only reasonable explanation of what is going on is that the Biden Administration is forcing up the price of oil to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, and this will continue as long as they are in power. Got OIL?
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $28.58) is a Buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
* * * * *
Today would be Steve Jobs’ 67th birthday.
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* * * * *
Your following Harald Malmgren and sending Tati to Greece Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $3.43) – Buy under $5, first target $10, then $50
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.21) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.10) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.41) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
CohBar (CWBR – $0.27) – Buy under $2, hold a long time
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $13.23) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $9.16) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $3.23) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $9.40) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.56) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $4.34) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.15) – Buy under $5, target $15 or $25
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $9.84) – Buy under $40, target price $80+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $40.50) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Facebook (FB – $207.60) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $60.61) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $21.15) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $48.09) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $18.76) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $32.91) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.04) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Velo3D (VLD – $7.61) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $9.89) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $10.00) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $24.15 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $29.52) – Buy under $25, target price $50
ALPS Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $40.25) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $18.44) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $34.55) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.28) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $11.36) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.64) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.90) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $38.93) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $38,803.89) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $26.59) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,622.23) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $21.40) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $35.85) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – 39.90 – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $18.04) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $33.95) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.28) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.27) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Oil
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $28.58) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.50) – Hold for CEO comment
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI – $5.57) – Hold for higher bid
Apple Computer (AAPL – $162.74) – Hold for 5G iPhones
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First!
Take 2
Ralph Cowie
NEXT>
Again #1 but in need of a blanket in this rotted world if investing.
OOP #4, see what market fear does to the mind…..
Is that what happened to Putin’s mind??
KGB spies do not have minds and this is life term. Only this
spy managed to be amoung his countries rich – all of whom
owe their wealth to him and know it.
Reminds me of a contrary situation in France – the Kings architect built himself a greater palace and invited the king for a stay. This flunky lost his head!
MM – Why are you not making RSX a formal recommendation?
MM–thanks for the RSX idea. If oil is spiking higher on short term war fears, oil companies should be going higher. But maybe these Russian companies will be affected by the sanctions, so the companies are plunging. Is that correct?
I remember being called by my broker on the morning of the 1990 Iraqi invasions. I don’t recall how it took for the market to recover, but that was clearly a great buying opportunity. The military situation is far more dangerous today thanks to technology, so how long do you think this plunge will last? What’s your strategy–dollar cost averaging every week, or month?
People are selling Russian energy because they are afraid of sanctions. But the world needs their oil and gas, and as Iran has shown, need > sanctions.
I well remember 1990 Iraq because I was running a $40 million all-short fund and I only had one day to cover everything. The recovery is very fast.
It’s just a short-term trade
What is a good play for natural gas ?
ET take a look DYODD.
its an pipeline MLP my #2 holding after TGTX
@MR Samuel Hopkins. I had ET and sold it a few years ago. Had problems with taxes because there is some sort of certificate holder of all ET, which needs to be an intermediary of validating sales, that you need to square with them. Sorry for the lack of precision. I bought the shares with Merrill Lynch and recall they were listed separately on my portfolio list there. Only found out why when I sold and was doing taxes. Suggest you check with your broker to clarify this messy description of mine. Good luck on ET
No problem in the 4+ years i have been buying it, jest a K1 like any other MLP the K1 never arrives early But I haven’t had to file extension. i Drip the distribution and have bought and sold nothing tricky in a taxable account.
the distribution is headed up 0.70 per unit now was $1.22 expect it to go back
MM – what is the timetable for the HUGE price targets you are calling for in PZG, SAND and OIL and which one moves first?
OIL moves first. SAND is a steady grower as gold prices and streaming ounces go up through 2025. PZG probably will get bought before they have to build the Grassy Mountain mine next year.
We got into NVTA early .. Original Recommendation: January 18, 2018 @ $7.03
Looks like we will be able to buy back below the original recommendation price pretty soon. I’m not that excited.
@Michael Murphy, Excellent Radar. Will have my trigger finger ready on BDSI. Interesting that China is advancing itself as a peacemaker to Russia and the Ukraine and blaming the U.S. for the problem. Standy for the move on Taiwan. Interesting on CNBC this morning of guest indicating a bit of a softening of the climate folks to allow for an interim OK of including natural gas in their OJ list with alternative solar and win. That could mean Biden may get the word to loosen restrictions on fossil fuels to moderate inflation pressures while calling if a taking of business away from Russia with LNG to Europe. There are 6 major shipments waiting to go from the Gulf, on hold due to a major data flaw in a court of social damage from fossil fuels that has put a hold and freeze on further leasing and drilling. All that need is toi have the Energy Department head who is stalling now to tell the judge it is OK. That may happen soon, and we will start getting natural gas operations full speed ahead, IMHOI. GLTA
Taiwan should learn from the Ukranians and start preparing for an invasion
“I think the only reasonable explanation of what is going on is that the Biden Administration is forcing up the price of oil to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, and this will continue as long as they are in power. Got OIL?’
Explain to me how the nasty Biden Administration is forcing up the GLOBAL oil prices? I really wish you could keep your politics off the board.
It’s not politics, it’s economics. By blocking fracking and turning the US from a net oil exporter to a net importer, they took the downward price pressure off global oil prices.
Why do you think it is nasty to force up oil prices? It accelerates the move to renewable energy and EVs, a major goal of this administration.
It also happens to be dead wrong as usual.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M
Oil production took a hit during the pandemic but it looks to be headed straight up. If Biden is trying to slow production, he is doing a bad job.
Oil is going to be in demand destruction mode globally as counties move to renewable energy and EVs. A major goal of all countries except Russia.
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/its-time-to-get-serious-about-energy?utm_source=url
US Energy Information Administration vs. dumberg or Doonesbury. Who do you believe is serious and who’s joking? Have other sources?
Really, what is the emerging technology to watch, and which is the old world technology? Why not stick to biotech, emerging tech, cryptos, and other “new world” technology? Maybe you are just trading here, but there’s too many recommendations as it is.
Doomberg. Many other sources. Gen IV nuclear to power EVs is the emerging technology. Oil to $300 by 2025 is just a trade, but it’s a great trade. And I agree, too many recommendations.
You believe Doomberg over the US Energy Information Administration?
Ok bud.
There is absolutely NO WAY oil gets to $300. In fact, I’ll bet we have seen a top already. China is building 150 nuke plants over the next few years. URA is a better long term play that Oil by far.
Can you imagine how many in the US are sitting at the table saying .. “I just spent $80 bucks filling up the SUV, maybe we should looking into an EV.”
High gas prices are the best advertisement for Tesla that could possibly exist.
Oh BTW .. are you sticking with INO?
They are also building coal plats and promise to clean up by 2050.
Doomberg looks to be more right wing propaganda disguised as a “news” source. As you can see in the graph above, oil production is higher than it was when your hero took office in 2016.
Doomberg is not political – just in-depth non-partisan analysis. Practically every serious institutional investor now is reading it. They make predictions, while the EIA reports current numbers. US oil production is up because companies are completing Drilled but UnCompleted wells. I’ve shown the disappearing inventory of DUCs many times. There are not enough drill rigs operating to replace the inevitable production decline from current shale wells, which is quite rapid.
New press release today from our favorite CEO Norchi. Looks like ARTH is heading to the ATM machine again. ARTH is the definition of insanity – doing the same thing again and again, and expecting a different result. Let’s go Norchi.
I don’t see a new press release. They filed an 8-K to update the existing prospectus with the 10-Q results. Having said that, they do need to raise money.
For the next 24 hours you can access the TME feed for FREE here: themarketear.com
Donations to help the people of Ukraine:
https://www.npr.org/2022/02/25/1082992947/ukraine-support-help
EV news. A ship carrying 4000 high value cars enroute to ports in the US caught on fire and burned. The damage was estimated between $150 million and $350 million. The cause of the fire was an EV which shorted out, caught on fire , burned for hours and ignited the rest of these autos . Lithium ion batteries, if caught on fire can burn for 4 hours. And 80 percent of those autos were already signed for. Same issue if you are driving one and
you crash and it catches on fire. Just FYI
Thanks. Are hybrid cars also at risk, because of their lithium ion batteries?
Gas cars are safer because gasoline doesn’t often catch fire or explode. But it happens. I put out a conventional battery fire in a VW, wasn’t easy, and got second degree burns doing it. Might be safer to ride a bike, but if you get hit by a car the results aren’t pretty. I know, hit twice. No matter what you do, you are screwed. Stay home.
Interesting, but I am wondering about whether the lithium ion batteries are different in a pure EV compared to a hybrid. Lacking specific knowledge, I would think that whatever battery technology is in the EV, that battery is much larger than the battery in the hybrid. Since Tesla and Lucid motors are very powerful, I suspect that is the case. High performance, but higher risk? My Toyota Prius hybrid is not high performance, but the dealer said its battery lasts a very long time.
EV batteries must be much larger for more power/range. They are far larger in length and width, but not height, and sit below the passenger compartment between all the wheels for stability/protection.
Good, thanks, just what I surmised.
I think it’s just the size of the batteries that make the difference. I saw one picture of an all electric car with the top cut off and the battery pack extended from bumper to bumper and side to side. But, I am just guessing. Eventually, a solid state battery (Toyota invested $35 million in) which is much smaller and better will be available.
My hybrid Prius has a large battery also, certainly much larger than the storage battery in the front.
@Michael Murphy. Would you consider Ukraine an “exogenous matter” that would delay a Flash Sell today? BDSI up a penny in pre-market. Just a thought.
Keep holding BDSI for a bit. I’ll probably recommend selling next Monday. But it’s getting pretty unlikely there will be another bid.
MM /anyone
The premise for OIL is solid, and has performed very well. Need to invest in the commodity (but not in the futures market), and not in a private company (which will be severely curtailed with regulations).
? Is there something parallel for uranium and/or natural gas ?
May be too late for natural gas, but the Russian conflict may still make natty attractive.
I’m working on UUUU – uranium plus rare earth metals. I think it is too late for natural gas with winter ending and the already-high Ukraine spike.
Russia invades “sort of ” ??
That was the situation last Thursday. Now it is an invasion.
Thank You
TY. I’ve had REMX for a while. VanEck Rare Earth. Done very well. You might look at that one also. I don’t know much about it.
UUUU is good for uranium and so is LEU.
Long both. Also increased positions in a number of gold stocks besides GDX, EQX and WPM. AU breakout is now $1,974/oz.
For those investors and speculators that still believe there is space for RealPolitik solutions in the current world and WW3 is not inevitable, Russian stocks are dramatically on sale, new lows and panic selling in RSX and LUKOY. Question is, if there is a ceasefire and deal in the Ukraine are the new sanctions going to be lifted? Not a rhetorical question as the Sanctions put in place in 2014 for the invasion of Crimea are still in place after 8 years.
… and Crimea is still in Russian hands, so when/why should they have been removed?
SCYX–follow steelerdude on YMB for script numbers. Week ending 2/18 flat at 412, compared to 415 the previous week, which was a big 18% jump from prior week of 347.
VUZI is a stock symbol I fell into. They make a line of intelligent glasses. Their web site was one of the greatest ones I have seen. Interesting, they have a massive set of 200+ patents, international sales set up and more. Their
Today I sat in on a open presentation on their latest 400 series products which detqiled their newest 400 series multiuse products and market techniques for gaining customers, This was part of a full scan presentation about their efforts for 2022
I think this will end up on their web site where you can hear the content and nearby future efforts.
Take a look and see if this is almost too good for a small firm breaking into a market of the future even if someone else buys them out.
Tell me why this is not a good target; better than most of the hitech floats we see today or the risk of Pharma wonders with an FDA roadblock
INO: fromYMB
Bio7 days ago
INO was at $2 before the covid hype of a “3 hours vaccine”. Shares outstanding were 100,010,328.
Inovio produced nothing for covid and the share count increased to 210,356,896 .
Accordingly, INO should be less than $1 now.
This statement used to be laughable
Thank you Nostrdamus
looks like Oil may test new highs. $200 might happen.
Good morning, all. Analysts not impressed with NVTA today, two smaller groups go to underweight from neutral and sell from underweight. Goldman Sachs changes price target to $14 from $13. Sure, looks like NVTA leadership needs to adjust its market sensitivity better.
After SOTU last night, standby for Murphy vision of $200 oil.
so much for nvta not needing to go to the atm anymore,MM any thought on this,if this doesnt mean much why such the hit on the stock price with such a big gain in the over all market today
MM How much dilution? 220 million float. 40 more million shares,
FORGOT TO PUT TICKER SYMBAL IN NVTA, ARE THEY PLANNING TO BUY ANOTHER COMPANY?
They probably will buy more companies as they roll up the genomic sequencing industry.
This is just their annual update to the shelf registration that they file after the 10-K is filed. Not an offering. They had over $1 billion in cash at the end of the year and are on a path to cash flow positive.
Sweet,tx for the response,bought more
They also updated the existing ATM facility with Cowen, but they don’t use it very much.
PDUFA date now 6/25/22 on TGTX; If the only change is a 90 day delay this would seem to make TGTX a bargain, having been cut in half since the delay was announced.
TG Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: TGTX), today announced the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has extended the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) goal date to June 25, 2022 for the Biologics License Application (BLA) and supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for ublituximab in combination with UKONIQ(R) (umbralisib) as a treatment for patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL).
The FDA notified the Company that the updated overall survival analyses which were submitted to the FDA in February 2022, constituted a major amendment to the applications, and therefore the FDA is extending the PDUFA date to provide time for a full review of the submissions.
The new Radar Report for 3.3.22 is posted.