Dear New World Investor:
The Fog of War has descended on the stock market, with no one really sure how blocking Russian banks from the SWIFT international bank settlements system, the Nord Stream 2 bankruptcy (if it even happened) possibly slashing natural gas supplies to Europe, $110 oil, and US stagflation – or not – and the Fed’s response will affect equity prices.
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The S&P 500 added 1.7% since last Thursday after the correction dropped the forward Price/Earnings ratio back into a familiar zone.
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The Index is down 8.4% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% and is down 13.5% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 1.8% and is down 9.5% in 2022.
Last Thursday, I said: “The fractal dimension fell through 55, signaling a downtrend has started. Maybe. The fractals could reverse quickly, but if they don’t we’ll have to assume this could be more serious than a -10% correction. The next week is crucial.”
The market rallied sharply on Friday and did well enough this week to pull the fractal dimension back above the 55 level, canceling the downtrend signal. Obviously, it wouldn’t take much weakness to reactivate the signal, but with the Fed probably giving up on a half-point increase in the Fed funds rate at the March 16 meeting and Ukraine headed for an outcome pretty soon (I think Putin could lose, but either way an end to the war is bullish), we’re more likely to consolidate for a few weeks before another move up.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
ATRS Antares Pharma – Tlando approval March 28
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat approval March 29
FB Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate took a big dive since mid-February on a series of weak reports, including net exports. It now calls for 0.0% growth for the March quarter, far below the 1.9% Blue Chip estimate.
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Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 441,232,100 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 380,123,261 have run their course. Of those, 374,126,927 recovered and 5,996,334 died – matching last week’s new low case fatality rate of 1.6%.
In the US, there have been 80,771,823 confirmed infections, of which 54,925,579 have run their course. Of those, 53,945,789 recovered and 979,790 died – matching the last two weeks’ case fatality rate of 1.8%.
As expected, daily cases have plunged to 56,114.
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Hospitalizations are following cases down
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Daily deaths are following hospitalizations down.
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Vaccinations and infections have brought us near herd immunity.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, March 4
GLW – Corning – 1on1s – Susquehanna Technology Conference
February payrolls – 8:30am – +400,000 expected
AAPL – Apple – 12:00pm – Annual meeting
Monday, March 7
NVTA – Invitae – 11:10am – Cowen Healthcare Conference
SFTBY – Softbank – 4:50pm – Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
Tuesday, March 8
ATRS – Antares Pharma – 9:50am – Cowen Healthcare Conference
GLW – Corning – 11:00am – Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
GRPH – Graphite Bio – 12.50pm – Cowen Healthcare Conference
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 1:05pm – Raymond James Annual Institutional Investors Conference
Wednesday, March 9
GILD – Gilead Sciences – 10:30am – Cowen Healthcare Conference
Short Interest – After the close
Thursday, March 10
AG – First Majestic – Earnings release; probably no conference call as usual
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
Friday, March 11
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.69) filed to uplist to the Nasdaq main market and have an underwritten public offering of stock and warrants through Ladenburg Thalmann, which should get them some research coverage, some institutional ownership, and the funds to advance their various programs. We don’t know the size and timing of the offering yet.
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AGNPF is a Hold.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $3.80) reported December quarter revenues up 10.5% from last year to a record $48.73 million, beating the consensus for $47.19 million. Pro forma earnings of two cents a share beat the one-cent estimate. They also had one-time earnings of 17¢ a share from the sale of Otrexup.
Teva’s generic EpiPen prescriptions in the December quarter increased 35% year-over-year, contributing to a 77% year-over-year increase in EpiPen royalty revenue. Xyosted December quarter total prescriptions increased 34% year-over-year, and for the full year increased 45%.
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On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they will launch Tlando, their oral testosterone, in the June quarter, right after FDA approval.
They guided for 2022 revenues of $200 million to $220 million, 18% to 30% growth adjusted for the Otrexup sale, bracketing the consensus for $211.38 million.
Antares finished the quarter with $65.9 million in cash after paying down $20.0 million in long-term debt.ATRS is a Strong Buy up to $5 for a $10 target price based on Xyosted and EpiPen sales, and $50 in three to five years, as they and their partners introduce numerous new products.
Primary Risk: Xyosted prescriptions stop growing or other products don’t sell well.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of first FDA approval: Approved
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $13.31) reported a December quarter loss of 61¢ per share, 12¢ worse than expected. On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they said they have scheduled an end-of-Phase 2 meeting with the FDA, and will be finalizing the Phase 3 trial design for an expected start in the second half of the year.
They had a good 2021:
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The company’s pipeline is bolstered by a number of investigator-initiated studies:
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They have a full 2022 planned.
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Brett Jensen wrote a pretty good overview on SeekingAlpha. Psilocybin therapy for depression is an idea whose time has come. I believe Compass’ approach of combing the drug with psychological support from trained therapists is the most likely to succeed. They finished the year with $273.2 million in cash.CMPS is a Buy under $36 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2023
Inovio (INO – $3.11) reported December quarter revenues of $830,000 with a $106.9 million or 50¢ per share loss. Tests of INO-4800 against the omicron variant shows it continues to have a high T-cell response against the virus, which reduces the incidence of serious disease and death. Like the other vaccines, it shows significantly decreased levels of both neutralizing and binding antibodies that can prevent infection. So they are pausing enrollment of new patients in the Phase 3 trial to apply for approval to amend the primary endpoint of the INNOVATE Phase 3 trial from “prevention of virologically confirmed COVID-19 disease” to “prevention of severe disease.” Dosing of already-enrolled patients will continue.
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On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said Adavaccine, their Chinese partner, completed enrollment of its 200-participant homologous (following INO-4800 vaccination) booster trial as well as its 267-participant heterologous (vaccination with a different vaccine from the primary series) booster trial.
They may start another ex-US heterologous booster non-inferiority clinical trial compared to viral vector and inactivated COVID-19 vaccines. The currently licensed vaccines don’t meet the global demand for boosters to address waning protection from these vaccinations, which most regulatory agencies are worried about. Inovio’s DNA vaccine technology makes it a potentially favorable primary and booster candidate because it generates long-lasting T-cell responses against multiple variants of concern, has excellent tolerability of re-administration, and is thermostable for transport, storage, and distribution. The booster market is huge:
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They completed enrollment of the second global Phase 3 clinical trial of VGX-3100 for cervical pre-cancer, with top-line efficacy and safety data anticipated in the second half of 2022. And they recently completed enrollment of the Phase 1/2 trial of INO-3107, which has Orphan Drug Designation for recurrent respiratory papillomatosis. We’ll get preliminary efficacy data from a portion of participants in the second half of this year.
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They finished the year with $401.3 million in cash. The burn rate has been high because they are advancing so many clinical trials, even though many are partially or fully funded by other entities. INO is a Buy under $21 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2022
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Invitae (NVTA – $8.97) filed their 10-K annual report and updated their existing shelf prospectus and At-The-Market agreement with Cowen. They don’t make much use of the ATM facility – they ended December with over $1 billion in cash – but one SeekingAlpha author seized the opportunity to write a Scary! Panic! article implying this was potential major dilution instead of old news.
Invitae’s Chief Medical Officer did a good podcast on myths about interpreting genetic data, important distinctions around clinical-grade testing, and the many important ways genetic information can be used for reproductive planning, screening, and managing disorders.
Buy NVTA under $50 for a first target of $100 and eventually $200+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Biotech MegaShift
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $2.65) reported December quarter revenues up 5.1% from last year to $59.61 million, well above the $51.77 million consensus (which would have been 8.7% lower than last year). They had a GAAP loss of 40¢ a share, worse than the -31¢ estimate.
In the press release, they said Auryxia revenues grew 10% in 2021 to $142.2 million and December was a record quarter at $42.1 million. They aren’t going to do a conference call until after the March 29 PDUFA date for vadadustat, but they said after approval they will immediately start the process to get reimbursement for vadadustat under the Transitional Drug Add-on Payment Adjustment (TDAPA) period for dialysis organizations. They expect that to take about six months. TDAPA designation will be an important driver for vadadustat adoption.
They finished the year with $149.8 million in cash, enough to carry them through 2022. I expect them to raise money after vadadustat is approved. AKBA is a Near-Term Buy under $5 for a move to $15 if vadadustat is approved only for dialysis-dependent or $25 if it also is approved for non-dialysis.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved.
Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA filed
Probable time of next FDA approval: March 29, 2022
Probable time of next financing: June quarter of 2022
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI – $5.57) isn’t likely to attract a higher bid at this point. Let’s give them the weekend and exit Monday if there’s no higher bid. I’ll send a Flash Alert. Hold BDSI.
Primary Risk: Slow sales of Belbuca.
Clinical stage of lead product: Already approved
Probable time of first FDA approval: Already approved
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $9.35) reported December quarter revenues of $2.32 million, up 25% from the September quarter and just above the consensus estimate. They lost 70¢ per share, a bit worse than the -62¢ estimate.
On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said: “TG has been thrown a few curve balls over the last few months. The good news, though, for those of you who are baseball fans, I actually think these are hanging curve balls that we can hit out of the park. And if we are able to do that, I genuinely believe that we’ll be in a much stronger position because of it.”
What he meant was the coming meeting of the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee to review the updated overall survival data from their chronic lymphocytic leukemia trial will see a COVID-adjusted hazard ratio under 1.0, meaning the drug benefits patients, and an overall safety profile generally in line with currently available drugs, especially when focusing on treatment-related deaths.
This morning, TG said the New Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date is June 25 and I still expect approval. I expect the ODAC meeting in the next 60 days; it’s not scheduled yet. TG ended the year with $350 million in cash. Buy TGTX under $40 for a target price in a buyout of $80 or more.
Primary Risk: Ukoniq fails to sell or FDA turns down U2.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Meta Platforms (FB – $202.97) responded quickly to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They established a special operations center staffed by experts from across the company, including native Russian and Ukrainian speakers, who are monitoring the platform around the clock, allowing them to respond to issues in real time. They added several safety features in Ukraine and Russia, including the ability for people to lock their Facebook profile, removing the ability to view and search friends lists, and additional tools on Messenger. And they are taking extensive steps to fight the spread of misinformation and implementing more transparency and restrictions around state-controlled media outlets. They identify posts from state-controlled media and flag other posts that cite them
Millions of people around the world have tuned into social media sites over the past days as a modern war plays out in real time. The war has increased engagement for Meta by about 3% to 5%, according to Global Equities Research. YouTube had the strongest Ukraine-related uplift in engagement, followed by Facebook and Instagram. FB is a Buy under $320 for a $400 target in 2022.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.18) will make a rare brokerage firm presentation on Monday at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference. Buying back stock at half of net asset value with the Vision Funds for free is a compelling story. SFTBY is a Buy under $30 for a first target of $60 in the next two years.
Other Tech
Fastly‘s (FSLY – $16.63) Compute@Edge was recently recognized as one of two Leaders in the Forrester New Wave: Edge Development Platforms, Q4 2021 report. Fastly got a “Differentiated” rating, the highest possible score, in six criteria, including developer experience, platform execution model, and security. FSLY is a Buy up to $45 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $150+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
PagerDuty (PD – $31.44) is acquiring Catalytica, the no-code workflow automation platform. This will expand PagerDuty offerings to new use cases in finance, human resources, supply chain, and any time-sensitive business workflows. PD is a Buy up to $40 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk:Digital operations management is a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $8.48) reported December quarter revenues of $27.5 million, well ahead of the $24.17 million estimate. They lost one cent per share. Backlog increased from $183 million at the end of September to $241 million at the end of the year, and since then has grown to $545 million at the end of February.
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they guided first March quarter revenues to $42 million to $47 million, consisting of $14 million from two scheduled Electron launches and $35 million to $40 million from Space Systems. Wall Street was expecting $48.7 million, but that’s the average of a ridiculous range from $30 million to $80 million. They’ll lose seven to eight cents a share. The loss before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization will be only one cent a share.
The two keys to Rocket Lab right now are the rapidly-growing Space Systems division and lowering the loss per launch. They will do that by recovering and reusing Electron first stages, and increasing revenue per launch with the new eight-ton payload class reusable Neutron rocket. They announced a new facility in Virginia to build and launch Neutron.
They had a successful launch Monday of the second Synspective satellite, marking their 110th deployed satellite.
RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk:A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Velo3D (VLD – $7.13) reported December quarter revenues up 54.5% from last year and 20% from the September quarter to $10.41 million, 40% higher than the $7.4 million estimate. But they lost 10¢ per share compared to the expected five-cent loss.
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they beat every major metric:
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They have 18 Sapphire XC systems in backlog to drive 2022 revenues. They more than doubled the customer base in 2021, including 10 new customers. They expect 23 to 25 new customers this year. 60% of their sales in the year were to repeat customers.
They guided for total shipments to double from 23 in 2021 to 47 to 49 in 2022, which would give them 93 to 95 operating units by the end of the year. That will mean revenues more than triple to $87 million to $91 million.
The company finished the quarter with $223 million in cash.VLD is a Buy up to $11 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $10.00) drew a comment in the Formula One (FWONK) conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE): “We continue to review opportunities for LMAC and SPAC. As I’ve said before, we do believe the turbulence in the SPAC market has made deals more difficult but actually will benefit Liberty and our strength.”
LMACA is a Buy up to $10.50 for a $20 to $30 target after a merger is announced.
Primary Risk:No deal is announced by 1/21/23 and we have to redeem for $10 a share.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,942.10) shot up as a safe haven to Ukraine war volatility. Interestingly, the Bank of Russia has started buying gold again after a two-year pause.
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The fractal chart looks headed for a trend signal, although that could take three or four weeks. Breaking above the old high just as a trend starts could mean $2,300 gold in a hurry.
Miners & Related
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.62) presented at the BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference (ZOOM HERE and SLIDES HERE). This was a very thorough presentation focused on Coeur’s execution of their transition from primarily a silver miner to primarily a gold miner with a focus on long-term building a great mining company.
It’s good to see CEO Mitch Krebs – he doesn’t make many recorded presentations. You won’t learn much new, but this is highly recommended for all holders. CDE is a Buy under $10 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Sprott Inc. (SII – $41.93) reported December quarter revenues up 17.9% from last year to $34.61 million with earnings up 52% to 41¢. Assets under management grew $3.1 billion or 18% from last year to $20.4 billion, and are up from $8.0 billion in only 2 ½ years. Outstanding.
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said the new uranium exchange-traded fund and all the precious metals funds are seeing continued growth in 2022, totaling about $1 billion so far. Sprott is an obvious beneficiary of the Ukraine war. They are going to start more physical trusts to hold other minerals . I expect them to start a lithium trust.
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Sprott Resource Streaming and Royalty and the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan just advanced $225 million to Seabridge Gold (SA) to advance its KSM project in British Columbia. The note will be exchanged at maturity for a silver royalty on the project. They declared a 25¢ dividend payable March 22, giving the stock a forward yield of 2.4%. Buy SII under $22 for a $52 target price.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Square, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $42,509.20) has done a good job of holding on to the gains due to the Ukraine war. Expect a run to $50,000.
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $108.60 (and Brent at $119.84 early today!)
The price of oil jumped due to the Ukraine war, but at the same time Iraq stopped oil production from two southern fields with a combined capacity of almost half a million barrels a day. The huge West Qurna-2 field was shut for maintenance on February 21. The field, which can pump 400,000 barrels a day, is scheduled to resume normal operations on March 14. But the outages come as many OPEC members, including Iraq, struggle to reach their production quotas, causing global energy markets to tighten as demand recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. For example, Iraq pumped 4.16 million barrels a day in January, less than its target of almost 4.3 million, because of bad weather at ports.
OPEC+ met yesterday and stuck to their plan to increase output quotas by 400,000 barrels a day for April. But these monthly quotas have become a joke – OPEC+ hasn’t hit them for months, and now Russian oil might have problems.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) really haven’t moved much because people don’t believe high oil prices will last. Of course there will be a dip when the war ends, but I still expect $300 oil in 3026. As Michael Shellenberger wrote, The West’s Green Energy Delusions Empowered Putin. Buy the July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM) under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $32.44) is a buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
* * * * *
Your deep into Safe Havens Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $3.80) – Buy under $5, first target $10, then $50
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.14) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.10) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.23) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
CohBar (CWBR – $0.26) – Buy under $2, hold a long time
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $13.31) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $8.03) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $3.11) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $8.97) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.53) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $3.97) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.65) – Buy under $5, target $15 or $25
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $9.35) – Buy under $40, target price $80+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $39.64) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Facebook (FB – $202.97) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $61.71) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.18) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $50.16) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $16.63) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $31.44) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.09) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $10.00) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $8.48) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $7.13) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $25.22 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $31.24) – Buy under $25, target price $50
ALPS Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $41.83) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $19.03) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $35.55) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.62) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $11.85) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.68) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $7.74) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $41.93) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $42,509.20) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $28.11) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,815.63) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $21.92) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $33.89) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – 39.72 – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $17.89) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $31.32) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.23) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.49) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Oil
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $32.44) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.69) – Hold for CEO comment
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI – $5.57) – Hold for higher bid
Apple Computer (AAPL – $166.23) – Hold for 5G iPhones
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
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First. Big deal.
http://ir.medicenna.com/news-releases/news-release-details/medicenna-announces-appointment-clinical-advisory-board-and-dr
MM,
After reading this, it makes me think they might get bought out soon.
Doyle – I read the file you attached, so what in it gives you the impression they are selling soon?
Currently, Dr. Dhingra serves on the Boards of Lava Therapeutics (as Chairman), Black Diamond Therapeutics, Replimune, Curie Therapeutics and Autolus Therapeutics and previously served on the Boards of Five Prime Therapeutics, Biovex, Micromet, Algeta, YM Biosciences, EpiTherapeutics, and Advanced Accelerator Applications, which were all acquired by major pharmaceutical companies.
I still think they want to partner MDNA55 to fund further development of MDNA11. That would dramatically increase their value. But they could sell out for a bid over $4-$5.
What worries me is is the reshaping of so many firms. For example, Verizon is moving out of the programing part of their business in order to stick with transmission of signals. This is going on to all sorts of hot stocks as well as smaller firms. Big pharma does such things as culling out cosmetics. Of course we see other things like Cars of the Future as makers bring in making more of the hidden piece parts while they no longer had so much in the way if things like the medal components of old design cars.
There is also reverse movements – like Microsoft making more of the hardware than ever before.
In short, expect a lot of this change in firms we think we understand
This will often be caused by firms evolving to new wave management
One area of interest to me I call the “Rothchilds”, which are firms that
sell components to make parts to almost every end products to the makers who sell output to the end consumer.
Great Radar, Michael Murphy. GLTA with our Ukraine conundrum.
That’s all folks.
I agree Don. Great RR, MM. Thanks. And Ukraine is not working out well for Putin. Russians have lost 40 percent of the value of their money. Putin is not the only one who is upset. I expect the Russian public to give some serious pushback to Putin’s rule in the weeks ahead. Not to mention Putin’s family who is now living in a bunker in Siberia. How long does he think that is going to last? Also MM, what is BDSI’s future if we chose not to sell at this point? (Long term)
Dead money. The acquisition will go through, and any time in the future you will be able to get $5.60 for your shares, but nothing higher and no interest. So no reason to hold it once a deal is firm.
Ok , I sold it today. Now what’s your best pick to put the money in? Thanks
MM, thanks for the report. INO – I hold a lot of this stock basis your longstanding recommendation and I am down quite a bit, what is the timeline for movement up on this stock price and whats the status of the WHO decision for a globally sup[ported covid vaccine?
They should get approval to change the endpoint of the INO-4800 trial this quarter and report Phase 3 results by yearend.
The WHO Phase 3 trial is underway.
MM, are you still bullish on arch and nvta. What timeline are you looking at for some upward momentum. Is arch ever going to go for internal fda approval. I believe that is their only hope to move upwards
Even if they get internal approval, the company is lousy at marketing their well established external uses. Where are all those diabetic patients who should have benefitted from external AC5 by now? Minimal sales after 3+ months of hiring all those marketing people, little traction from Lovell. VA medicine is terrible. The VA rarely approves basic diagnostic services like MRI’s for musculoskeletal problems. Many other examples in my clinical experience. If there is more of the same in another 3 months, dump this.
A company like SCYX at least is increasing sales rapidly. But a major shareholder, Dr. Michael Burry says that he will be happy if they are profitable in 2024. Even a far superior company (to ARTH) like SCYX is financially very risky even if sales are increasing. ARTH is the baddest of the bad.
I just wrote to ARTH through their website’s ‘contact us’ tab and suggested they donate their inventory of AC5 to the Ukrainian military. They could actually show a critical application and get publicity.
What a great idea !
I just did the same, and encourage others to do likewise.
investors@archtherapeutics.com; customerservice@archtherapeutics.com
ARTH should move up steadily this year as more case studies are posted and quarterly sales increase. They need more money or a partner to do the internal trial.
NVTA is doing everything right as far as I can see. Sales growth with expanding profit margins should drive the stock this year.
How long have you been touting these stocks? Wall street hates them. Maybe they will survive but wall street has left them for dead.
ARTH could post 1000 more case studies, but the medical community is locked into the mantra that only double blind placebo controlled prospective studies matter. This is stupid in the case of AC5, and ethically immoral, when it is obvious that AC5 is so superior to the current products on the market. Big Pharma is making plenty of money on current products, so AC5’s market failure is more of an indictment of dirty politics than the merit of AC5.
I posted on their website and sent an email to ARTH RE: donating AC 5 to the Ukranian crisis.
To my pleasant surprise, over the weekend I received a call from Terry Norchi himself. We spoke for 20 minutes or so. Here’s my take aways:
A. Ukraine
1. He said it was a great idea and would be more than happy to donate inventory to the Ukrainian military. Thanked me for bringing it up. Says he never received a similar email from Arnold. I clarified that it was not my original idea, that I boosted it from Arnold.
2. Says they’ve looked before at donating to the military, and couldn’t get anyone to accept.
3. In the specific case of Ukraine, says would be very difficult to provide. He has contacts in the military, and has used them. Not sure how you would get the meds through to the military.
4. Although he is on board with the idea, says what Ukraine military now needs is weapons, armament,etc. Recognizes the great potential of the PR, but not sure how to implement.
He sounded genuine, sincere, gracious, and competent. Did not talk down to me, and was not the least bit arrogant or defensive. Did not at all strike me as a con.
Still, I personally wonder why it’s so difficult. Seems to me if I led a focus group of 5+/- well-chosen people (including a majority from ARTH), could brainstorm in (2) 90 minute sessions and come up with some actionable, workable ideas for getting AC 5 in the hands of Ukrainians who REALLY need it, while generating hugely positive publicity for ARTH. Easier said than done, I suppose. I volunteered to help.
Keep in mind the primary purpose of my contacting them was to help out Ukraine. Nevertheless, I didn’t resist asking him about the business.
B. Stock price
1. Properly and professionally said he couldn’t say anything that he wasn’t supposed to.
Agrees performance has been terrible.
2. I asked him about his $400K+ salary. He said to keep in mind he worked 8 years with no salary, got the drug through the FDA, and now is receiving a “proper compensation.”
Formerly CEO of the second-largest healthcare mutual fund.
3. Described himself as a working man, raising 3 children, and has to pay his bills. I personally question “working person,” at least in regard to the compensation. Was not appropriate for me to mention that point. Would have been too challenging, and I wanted to remain positive and harmonious. He did not apologize for the salary, but said he was sorry if people felt he was earning too much.
4. In 2017, FDA made an administrative mistake which set them back 2 years. Huge financial cost. He could have quit at that point; instead he doubled down.
Like most of the other people (including Michael Murphy if he invested) on this board, percentage -wise I’ve lost plenty of money on this stock. But I was favorably impressed and thankful Mr. Norchi called.
However, for all his other attributes, and his good intentions, maybe he’s not the best person for the job going forward. Good on him for developing the drug and getting through the FDA. But the world is full of great ideas and great products that don’t succeed financially. Execution has to be better for Arch to pull out of their financial mess. I certainly don’t recommend the stock at this level, and I’m not buying any now …… and not ever unless we see some sign of sales results. Doesn’t look like Mr. Norchi will be leaving, so we have to rely on him to execute.
Thanks for your efforts. But if TN can’t even give AC5 away to any countries’ military for free, that indicates that Lovell is a failure, and the entire marketing dept of ARTH is worthless.
MM – with the unfortunate situation of a shooting war in Ukraine is Arch product being shipped / sold to Ukraine. For YEARS you have touted ARCH product as being the solution for these unfortunate circumstances. No more excuses – I think you should pick up the phone and ask ARCH if they are moving product into the war zone…
Michael what are the projected costs of production at PZG’s Grassy and Sleeper projects? Trying to figure out how the increase price of gold effects projected values.
The cash operating cost per ounce at Grassy is $584 and the all-in sustaining cost is $672.
The cash operating cost per ounce at Sleeper is $529 and the all-in sustaining cost is $869.
Thank you.
If the net present value is 10.00 what is the expected price range they get if they sold out?
Why is Bitcoin and Etherium down so much anybody??
If Putin is allowed to kill the President of Ukraine I think it will be the end of Putin eventually and the end of Bidens career also.
Biden isn’t running again so his “career” will be over in 2024. I honestly would like to see candidates from both parties about 30 years younger.
Not sure who/what stops Putin. Nobody wants to put boots on the ground ..
The Russian people will stop Putin eventually inmho
How? He’s President for life.
Q.E.D.
Russia is now in a depression. And the Us is teetering on a recession. Biden’s approval ratings are in the tank. Europe is finally waking up to the fact that their military is grossly inadequate and are making moves to spend big Euros on their defense budget. Putin aka the Russian government has so much pressure on him he is acting like he will lose it any day now. The latest rumor is Putin and the 45 year old president of Ukraine are close to making a deal. And Ukraine is dropping their goal of joining NATO. If you can believe any of that. Sounds like the 60’s Cuban missile crisis all over again only this time around it’s Russia who is worried about having missiles 300 miles away from their border. Karma is a bitch. IMO
BTC and ETH have had about a million 5% swings in the past 10 years. Ok maybe not a million but you get the idea.
AKBA stock slips as JPMorgan flags regulatory risk for kidney disease drug (NASDAQ:AKBA) | Seeking Alpha
MM–please comment about this.
Recap March 4 from Grant’s Daily
Risk aversion continues to reign, as stocks fell to the tune of 80 basis points on the S&P 500 and 1.7% on the tech-heavy Nasdaq, while Treasurys were bid across the curve to leave the two- and 30-year yields at 1.49% and 2.17%, respectively, and the VIX rose to 32. Meanwhile, action in the commodity complex could be described as frenzied, as gold ripped to $1,972 an ounce for its best finish since August 2020 and WTI to $115 [a barrel] to log a cool 25% gain for the week.
You were right about oil but don’t you think that the drillers will come out of the woodwork at these prices?
Right, there are reportedly many frac wells that could be completed quickly.
Michael and Steve F–in a free market, you are correct. But Biden’s policies of cancelling Keystone and banning oil leasing permits will keep supply low and prices high.
Big oil has 9000 leasing permits and Keystone is a PIPELINE .. not a driller. It’s also only 8% done.
The problem is big oil won’t drill. They prefer to profiteer. They are making up for years of subpar performance and now they are stacking chips.
If you want to rid yourself of all this nonsense, buy a Tesla.
The Keystone Pipeline if completed could have supplied plenty of Canadian oil in a safer manner than via Buffett’s railroads. Biden destroyed fracking/shale which gave the US oil independence.
I’m sure Tesla is great, but if EV’s were to supply all vehicle needs, mining for battery materials would have to expand. How’s that for the environment? We need a diversity of options. Let gasoline engines wind down as EV expands. MM is correct on that point.
Bad govt action, whether the US or Russia and other bad countries, is the main cause of the war and crisis the world is now in.
Problem is Keystone was at least 2 years away from completion. Wouldn’t help at all now.
Nobody is stopping big oil from drilling. All Biden did was stop it on federal lands.
Oil will come back down in a hurry once the Russia/Ukraine kerfuffle dies down.
I’m a big believer in nukes. So is Musk. Sure batteries supplies tear up the environment. So does gold, silver and uranium mines. The difference is that none of these spew hydrocarbons into the world like oil.
Yes, oil will come back down to pre-Ukraine war levels, which were still much higher since Biden took control. Biden is to blame, and Putin to a lesser extent.
Nukes are a fine source of clean power, yes.
Is Biden supposed to go out personally and drill? There is absolutely NOTHING stopping oil companies from drilling on one of their 9000 oil leases.
I wonder what will happen to the right wing talking point when oil prices collapse and gas goes back under a couple bucks?
Maybe they can investigate Hillary ….
Not to mention EV materials like nickel are mostly made in Russia and Ukraine. So along with inflation, the price of EV ‘s will go UP. Stemming the tide on EV adoption. And just wait for those inflation numbers to come out soon. It will be the shock/shot heard around the world. I wonder what new word the FED will come up for it now!!
The FED caused this mess. They can tip toe around it but unless the take a Volker style interest rate approach, they will never catch up. Personally, I would love 18% CDs. As I recall, Volker caused a year long recession and the economy came roaring back.
BTW … ALL cars are going up, not just EVs. The obvious advantage for EVs are the huge operational savings over ICE cars.
Trust me .. all EVs from every manufacturer will be sold out. The demand is huge. Nothing will stem this tide. Think about what this will do to oil prices.
You admitted that universal EV’s are impossible because of the huge mining needs for battery materials if universality were to be considered. There will be an equilibrium balance between fossil fuels and renewables. No oil collapse to even 1-2 year ago levels.
You would not like 18% CD’s which would be accompanied by 20% inflation or so. Left wingers need to recognize the reality that all their desires come at others’ expense. No free lunch.
That’s another reason Putin took it to Ukraine. Russia bread.and butter economy is dependent on their oil sales. Putin doesn’t have time to redirect Russia’s economy into other sources of revenue. Meaning that pushing the envelope of mass EV production will severely hinder Russia future and Putin doesn’t know how to handle it. Same for Saudi Arabia.
MM, what are your thoughts on SD’s rise. Is there room for more advancement?
One thing I don’t hear much about, is driving season technically starts Memorial Weekend. All the massive demand for oil increasing as we approach summer addition to shortage. Could be months before we get ahead of this situation = higher oil prices for awhile.
Just sent a Flash Alert. “There wasn’t another bid for BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI) over the weekend, so it looks like Collegium’s (COLL) all-cash $5.60 a share bid will be as good as it gets. With the stock at $5.58 at this writing, there’s no point in sticking around. SELL BDSI,”
MM- did you see my question about SD?
HELO CORP Just hired their CFO.
He came over from Nu Skin Enterprises.
A NYSE listed company that did $2.68 billion in annual revenue last year.
WHY?? The possible answer could be in HELO’s press release of
Feb. 16th.
HI Jim,
Your thoughts on HELO Corp hiring their new CFO from a NYSE listed
company that generated $2.68 billion in annual revenue last year.
Isn’t this worth a cover?? NO DEBT.
@Michael Murphy and all. ARNA. Remember Dear Old ARNA?
Arena Pharma stock ticks higher on Nasdaq delisting notice for Pfizer deal (NASDAQ:ARNA) | Seeking Alpha
Donald, I sure do. I’m in ARNA and BCRX for you long time subscribers.
Good morning, all. On a hunch {an upgrade from Sell to Hold by one analyst} I nibbled back into NVTA this morning as a real bargain. Their number of presentations recently on their inventory of diagnostics to help docs with interventions that work may have provided the boost.
Oh yes, this market may have helped a bit today
Bought a small nugget myself. Bought back CRSP last week, seems dirt cheap.
Cathie Wood is buying the heck out of VLD. SpaceX and VLD have an interesting partnership. Seems like a good way to invest in SpaceX before it goes public.
Sold OIL today for a nice profit. Could be wrong but OIL looks to have peaked. I really think URA and BE are better alternatives. We’ll see.
ARTH – highest volume day so far this year.
I didn’t see any news on ARTH to explain this.
Good morning all. Inflation rate is misleading. One year rate is 7.9% but according to Fisher the rate for the past three months is 10+% and food is even higher. Itis time to rescind all of the Biden energy policies. According to the WSJ lead editorial yesterday, energy prices would come down immediately by a minimum of $20 per BOE and then incrementally have a braking power on current inflation Time to make the donuts, IMHO.. If nothing is done, we will see some terrible increases.
Talk to the oil companies. They have 9000 leases to drill on. They are intentionally NOT drilling because their stock prices have languished and they love the windfall. They are using Biden as cover, this is a world wide event you know.
Turn off fox. Presidents have almost no say in gas prices other than releasing the national reserve.
Take some economics lessons from OPEC. They could shut off production and maintain higher prices. They could also ramp up production but prices would drop. Somewhere in the middle, they know how much production translates into whatever price that maximizes their income. Your argument about oil companies shutting off drilling is one sided and silly.
@Michael. I have checked out the contention relating to 9000 leases. These include a substantial number of dry holes, some under review and a substantial amount in federal land. The balance of them have been stymied by both the Department of Energy which invented a fiction of social harm index that is more than 20 times over reality that a court has mandated be given back to the affected lessors for use and is being held up by Granholm 6 LNG for export, large tankers to take the gas out of the Gulf and to Europe and East Coast US where Russia is exporting to Boston. The balance of the 9000 are fully operational and our ability is to as a couple million more barrels per day from AMWR, from Texas and Iowa and operationalization of related pipelines from one in the Midwest, another Keystone, which was held up years by other administrations and with hundreds or proposal reviews, that can take pretty quickly about 800,000 barrels per day from Canada down to the gulf and for petro chemical urgent needs. I could go on with more fees and regulations. The truth is that we can get this thing going pretty quickly once the Climate gang takes off their web of intentional rules. I appreciate your response. You have been misled. My references are large along with an honorary award from the International Association of Energy Engineers as “Legend in Energy”. I am convinced we can turn this thing around and that the Climate folks have overstepped their strategy of “existential” danger. Best reference for this contention is the full text of the Book “Unsettled: by Steve Koonin (many Phd’s in climate related, physics and math) not the summary which has many errors. available at Amazon…check the reviews. Also like Schellenberger who is level headed and thinks we have a lot of work to do with particulate matter especially from the dirty drillers in Asia, Russia and China and Australia where coal is king. In the USA we have been he best of clean progress and get better every year. Weather is not climate needs to be explained to the media and just how much carbon can be effectively managed and sustain out need for carbon. Clouds really mess up the math models, Sorry for the rant. I always like your posts.
The new Radar Report for 3.10.22 is posted.