Dear New World Investor:
Uranium
Russian President Putin signed a decree on Tuesday restricting the import and export of specified goods and raw materials “to ensure the security of the Russian Federation.” It did not specify which goods and materials would be restricted, but it may include enriched uranium. If so, this is a huge deal because Russia is such a dominant exporter. It could lead to a panic for enriched material. It also could cause a switch from underfeeding (selling surplus natural uranium after enrichment) to overfeeding (supplementing the natural uranium supplied by the utility with some of the enricher’s own), which would take millions of pounds off the market.
Uranium was in a long-term bear market that ended in November 2016 around $20 a pound. It had a jagged recovery for about five years and then really took off in August 2021, after the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Fund (U-UN.TO) began hoovering up and storing the available supply.
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For a variety of reasons I’ve been talking about for a few years – safe Gen IV nuclear plants, the inability of current solar and wind power installations to provide reliable base power, the realization that nuclear is green power, and – most recently – the geopolitical importance of not being dependent on Russia and OPEC+ for power (looking at you, Germany), the demand for uranium is going to grow rapidly in the future.
Rare Earth Metals
Rare earth metals are a China story. China mines over 70% of worldwide production, refines over 80% of the world’s mixed oxides, separates over 90% of the world’s elemental oxides, and produces or controls 100% of new rare earth base metals, where 95% of the value is. And China subsidizes production of new rare earth metals so heavily that it’s nearly impossible to compete with them on economic terms
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At the same time various rare earth metals are vital for, among many other products, modern electronics, electric vehicles, and defense weapons. Maybe being dependent on China for rare earth metals is kinda like Germany being dependent on Russia for natural gas and fertilizer. No es bueno. Buying a non-China rare earth metals company is a good way to get exposure to battery metals and permanent (neodymium) magnets while hedging if the renewables and EV reality falls short of projections.
The $14 billion a year rare earth magnets market currently lead rare earth metal consumption. They have replaced induction drive units in electric vehicles to provide the torque (one kilogram per car) and replace gearboxes in onshore wind turbines (200 kilograms per turbine).
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Rare earth metal economics depend on geochemistry. There are 17 rare earth metals, and seven of them, including terbium and dysprosium (which is critical for military magnets) sell for more than $450 a pound. But cerium and lanthanum are worth only a few dollars a pound. So the rare earth minerals mix of the deposit really matters for a mine’s economics. This is where MP Materials (MP), owner of Mountain Pass, the only active rare earths mine in the US, and Lynas Rare Earths (LYSCF or LYC.AX in Australia) run into trouble – they have too much cerium and lanthanum.
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Buy Energy Fuels
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Energy Fuels (UUUU) of Lakewood, Colorado, is the leading US producer of uranium and vanadium. Since 2006, 86% of all US uranium has been produced by assets owned by Cameco (CCJ) and Energy Fuels. Vanadium is a strategic mineral used in high-strength steel, titanium, and other alloys, and in the batteries needed to store power from renewable energy.
Energy Fuels also is an emerging producer of rare earth element products. It processes monazite, which has very good geochemistry and is a by-product of chemical plants, so it will be very cheap to acquire. In December 2020, Energy Fuels entered into a three-year supply arrangement with Chemours to acquire a minimum of 2,500 tons per year of natural monazite sands, one of the highest-grade rare earth minerals in the world. Energy Fuels recovers the contained uranium and produces the very marketable mixed rare earth carbonate.
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Energy Fuels is the first US company in several years to produce a marketable rare earth concentrate ready for separation on a commercial scale. They estimate the amount of rare earth minerals contained in the monazite sands to equal close to 10% of current US demand. They also have permits to process thorium.
In the short-term, they are focused on momazite. But in the long-term, they intend to develop fully-integrated rare earth elements separation and value-added capabilities at their existing White Mesa Mill.
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MP Materials closed today at an $8.11 billion market capitalization and Lynas Rare Earths had a $6.84 billion market cap. Energy Fuels has a $1.57 billion market cap. I see no reason UUUU can’t have the market cap of MP or LYSCF just based on their rare earths business, and we get the uranium for free. They have a reasonable shot at breakeven this year and should be profitable in 2023 and thereafter.
The company had $131 million in cash and inventory at the end of September, and no debt. The 691,000 pounds of uranium inventory and 1.672 million pounds of vanadium inventory are on the books at less than half their current prices. Energy Fuels should announce December quarter results in the next two weeks. Buy UUUU under $11 for a $30 target in two to three years.
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Market Outlook
The headline Consumer Price Index hit 7.9% in February, its highest level in 40 years and probably the highest core inflation number we’ll see in this cycle. The Ukraine war is changing the outlook for 2022, as prices for oil, gasoline, natural gas, fertilizer, and food climb worldwide. I’ve seen estimates that the average American family will have to spend $3,000 more this year on food and gas. They’ll cut back some, of course, but much of that food and gas money probably will come out of discretionary spending, so my worries about a recession look more and more likely.
President Biden’s ban on Russian oil is mostly for show. We don’t import that much from Russia anyway, and Saudi Arabia can pick up the slack while the Russian oil is sold to the Saudi customer who gave the US their allocation. Iran has had no problem selling their oil since 2017, in spite of US sanctions. Oil is a fungible commodity.
But every core element of the food supply chain is affected by the war. Putin has suspended fertilizer exports and Belarus declared a Force Majeure and can’t export their potash. Russia won’t allow it to be exported, anyway, and the world won’t buy anything from them as long as they are Russia’s lackeys. Belarus provides 40% of the global supply of potash and Russia supplies 66% of ammonium nitrate. Taking that much fertilizer from the world economy sets the stage for massively reduced yields, higher prices, and possibly famine.
On top of this, we now see the oil price at $110 a barrel and headed higher. This will put even non-Russian fertilizer out of reach of the common farmer. In addition, Russia won’t sell their wheat and the world wouldn’t buy it or anything else anyway, due to the sanctions. Plus Ukraine, the “breadbasket of the world,” probably won’t even have wheat due to the war. That’s the fourth and fifth largest suppliers of 102 million tons or 25% of global wheat exports to the world knocked out of the game. The world has only five weeks’ worth of wheat in storage and the price of wheat has increased 55% since the war began. Got bread?
Curve Flattening: Over 10 recent trading sessions, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.35 percentage points, or 35 basis points. But that was the net of a 20 basis point move up in inflation swaps offset by a 55 basis point drop in real yields. Higher inflation + lower growth = stagflation at best, recession at worst. This is Dr. Lacy Hunt’s thesis – we can’t have high inflation for long because it kills consumer spending, and that’s 70% on the economy.
It is even worse in Europe, where the 10-year rate fell 20 basis points, the net of a 65 basis point increase in inflation swaps and an 85 basis point drop in real rates – in only two weeks. Yikes.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve purchased $4.025 billion of short-dated Treasury notes, formally bringing the quantitative easing program introduced in March 2020 to a close. The yield curve is flattening as the market discounts the Fed raising short-term rates while the long-term real yield falls. The yield curve has never before inverted prior to the beginning of a tightening cycle, and such an inversion is a reliable historic predictor of recessions 12 to 18 months later.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 skyrocketed by 7.4% yesterday. The S&P 500 lost 2.4% since last Thursday, including the 500’s worst day in 17 months. The Index is down 10.6% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.0% and is nearly in bear market territory. It is down 16.1% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.0% and is down 10.4% in 2022.
Some good news: After a record year in 2021, corporate buybacks are already setting a new record-breaking pace in 2022.
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And there are two strong contrarian signals. The big money managers have slashed their equity exposure.
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And the US bond folks credit risk appetite has reached the panic level, which definitely is contrarian bullish.
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The fractal dimension gave another downtrend signal, so again we need to see a quick recovery or we should buckle up for a deeper decline.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
ATRS Antares Pharma – Tlando approval March 28
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat approval March 29
FB Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the March quarter increased from 0.0% on March 1 to 0.5% due to the strong February payrolls report (+678,000 versus +423,000 expected) and a bit of strength in real personal consumption expenditures growth. I doubt that growth can continue.
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Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 452,458,359 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 392,915,368 have run their course. Of those, 386,868,797 recovered and 6,046,571 died – a new low case fatality rate of 1.5%.
In the US, there have been 81,066,725 confirmed infections, of which 56,420,696 have run their course. Of those, 55,431,083 recovered and 989,613 died, matching the last three weeks’ case fatality rate of 1.8%.
But the moving average case fatality rate rose to 2.06% – omicron is not as harmless as some were saying.
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Daily cases have plunged to under 40,000
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Hospitalizations are falling rapidly.
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Daily deaths are down to 1,078.
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Over ¾ of adults are fully vaccinated.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, March 11
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
Monday, March 14
QUIK – QuickLogic – 11:00am – Roth Conference
Tuesday, March 15
INO – Inovio – 8:00am – Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference
MDNA – Medicenna – 8:00am – Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference
APTO – Aptose – 10:00am – Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference
Wednesday, March 16
Fed meeting – 2:00pm – ¼-point increase in funds rate expected
PD – PagerDuty – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $3.91)gave a very upbeat fireside chat at the Cowen Healthcare Conference (ZOOM HERE). CEO Bob Apple is getting more aggressive about saying: “Hey, we’re growing 30% a year, we have a diversified and growing product portfolio, and we can keep growing for years.” All true.
Antares got $70 million last year from EpiPen sales and royalties, in part because they were required at every COVID-19 vaccination site to deal with cases of anaphylactic shock. Thy are expecting growth this year.
He said they will have 108 sales reps in the field when Tlando is approved by the FDA on March 28. They’ll launch in May or June. They expect the usual pattern this year: the March quarter will be the weakest and then sequential growth through the end of the year.
The product that could be transformational is the one coming from the Pfizer alliance. They should file for approval in two or three months.
Near-term, it is their proprietary adrenal insufficiency rescue pen. It will keep patients out of the emergency room. They’ll file the New Drug Application by the end of this year and get approval in late 2023 or early 2024. It’s a $100 million opportunity over time.
They expect Teva’s generic Forteo will get approval this year. Forteo did $400 million in the US last year. Antares’ royalties start in high single digits and go to the mid-teens. ATRS is a Strong Buy up to $5 for a $10 target price based on Xyosted and EpiPen sales, and $50 in three to five years, as they and their partners introduce numerous new products.
Primary Risk: Xyosted prescriptions stop growing or other products don’t sell well.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of first FDA approval: Approved
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $12.57) posted an interesting 2021 annual review that covers PTSD and treatment-resistant depression, their COMP360 psilocybin therapy, and their drug + therapy approach. CMPS is a Buy under $36 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2023
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $9.14) was on an interesting gene editing panel at Cowen (ZOOM HERE). CEO Josh Lehrer, MD, said they have designed a process to be sure there are enough stem cells to have a curative effect – they think some of the genetic editing failures have been due to too few cells to have an impact. GRPH is a Buy under $26 for a $50 target in 2022, $100 in 2023, and then higher.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: 2023 or 2024
Invitae (NVTA – $8.15) also did a fireside chat at Cowen (ZOOM HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Sean George emphasized again that in addition to top-line revenue growth, they are for the first time ever guiding to get the gross profit margin back to 50%.
They also are guiding to and committing to a lower cash burn, which they’ve never done in the past. He said: “We’re going to push past $0.5 billion revenue, it’ll be $1 billion and then $2 billion before we know it. And somewhere as we get for $2 billion, we know we can, and we want to be living off our own cash flow.” He also said they can continue to grow at 40% a year or more for years to come.
Urology is a major opportunity. 60% of men with prostate cancer can benefit directly from understanding what their inherited background is, yet essentially nobody gets genetically tested for prostate cancer. This a whole other market that’s now set to develop and grow their inherited cancer line.
This is such a well-run company. Buy NVTA under $50 for a first target of $100 and eventually $200+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
ScyNexis (SCYX – $3.99) borrowed another $5 million on their $60 million credit line with Silicon Valley Bank. They still have $25 million left on the line if needed. Buy SCYX under $24 for a first target price of $54 now that Brexafemme is approved and a buyout at $170.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
Probable time of next financing: 2023 or never
Biotech MegaShift
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI – $5.57) isn’t going to get a higher bidder, so I sent a Flash Alert on Monday recommending sale. Sell BDSI.
Primary Risk: Slow sales of Belbuca.
Clinical stage of lead product: Already approved
Probable time of first FDA approval: Already approved
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $9.01) said the FDA set April 22 for the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee meeting to review their Biologics License Application (BLA)/supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for the combination of ublituximab and Ukoniq (umbralisib) for the treatment of adult patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia and small lymphocytic lymphoma. I expect the committee to vote for approval, but there’s always a risk that these non-FDA panels go off the rails. Buy TGTX under $40 for a target price in a buyout of $80 or more.
Primary Risk: Ukoniq fails to sell or FDA turns down U2.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $158.52) introduced several new products Tuesday. The most important was their M1 processor. Apple says it is 90% faster than Intel’s 16-core i9 processor yet takes only one-third as much power only. And – get this – it is equal to Nvidia’s GeForce RTX 3090 as a graphics processing unit (GPU).
They also unveiled an all-new Mac Studio and Studio Display, a new iPad Air, and an iPhone SE with the latest Corning Gorilla Glass front and back and 5G for $429 for the 64GB model. Pre-orders start tomorrow. AAPL is a Hold for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Corning (GLW – $37.01) presented at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference (AUDIO HERE). They emphasized how they’ve diversified away from the display business and the optical fiber business is benefiting from President Biden’s infrastructure bill.
GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My first target is $60 in 2022.
Meta Platforms (FB – $195.21) got a target price cut from $301 to $240 by Piper Sandler. I get it that people love to hate Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook, but that’s why stocks get cheap. People are all over Facebook to follow and comment on the Ukraine war. More engagement = more ad revenues. FB is a Buy under $320 for a $400 target in 2022.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $57.92) presented at both the Cowen conference (ZOOM HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE) and the Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). Their message was the same: “We own the HIV business and we are developing a major oncology business.”
Gilead said their 542-patient Phase 3 trial of Trodelvy in patients with HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer, which accounts for approximately 70% of all breast cancer cases, met its primary endpoint with a statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) versus physician’s choice of chemotherapy. The trial targeted a 30% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death. Patients will be followed for a subsequent overall survival (OS) analysis, which is a secondary endpoint. There were no new safety concerns.
Good news, right? But the company held back the rest of the data for presentation at a major medical conference in June – probably the American Society of Clinical Oncology annual meeting. Wall Street had a hizzy fit and Barclay’s cut their target price from $63 to $56 and maintained their Underweight rating. BMO Capital Markets downgraded Gilead from Outperform to Market Perform.
Hey, guys, the trial succeeded! GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $105 for a first target of $130.
Other Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $14.69) presented at the Morgan Stanley conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CEO Josh Bixbey said: “If you rewind 10, 11 years ago, Fastly started with a very simple premise, which is that developers needed to look beyond the database, web, and application servers where they had only been able to work their whole lives. So if you think of a developer, for 20 years they’ve been put on almost blinders and they’ve been told, you can work here. Then the IT department or the marketing team owned everything ultimately beyond that, because in many cases, the content delivery network was owned by the marketing teams.
“Fundamentally, what Fastly brought to the table at the time was, no, these edges that are sitting all around the world close to users are something you the developer can write code on and you can have an impact. You can make your sites faster, you can make them more secure, you can make the more scalable…If you look at the vanguard of the internet, we are lucky to have many of them as our customer. They have set the precedent for what this looks like. So they’re coded at the edge. It’s running their websites.
“ Two things came out of that as we evolved. The first thing was, we now need to secure these applications at the edge. We saw the emergence of security being absolutely important and critical to the delivery side…Only a couple hundred companies in the world have adopted these primitives for the future. There are hundreds of thousands who can. So I think we’re looking at it and saying this opportunity is the start of something huge. We’re in an investment phase. We’re going to invest, but we’re also going to show people how large we think this can be.”
FSLY is a Buy up to $45 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $150+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.06) got a $1 million eFPGA contract – these have very high profit margins. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $60 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $8.74) said their 4th-generation IMM-β solar cell technology is transitioning into qualification. The cell is expected to have a conversion efficiency of ~33.3% in volume production, is 40% lighter than typical space solar cells, and is radiation-hard. Rocket Lab is much more than a launch company. They intend to provide critical components to many parts of space exploration. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk:A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($2,000.70) is serving its role as a safe haven. At Tuesday’s high, gold was up more than $80 an ounce and topped out at $2,078.80. That’s just shy of the 2020 high and all-time high up at $2,089.20. The fractal dimension is releasing a huge amount of stored-up energy so this should have much further to run.
Miners & Related
First Majestic (AG – $13.70) announced record December quarter revenues of $204.9 million, up 75% from last year and a whopping 64% from the September quarter, as they sold 1.4 million ounces of silver they held in inventory for higher prices. Smart move! They had pro forma earnings of two cents a share
They produced 12.8 million ounces of silver, slightly missing the lower end of their revised guidance range of 13.0 to 13.8 million silver ounces. Total gold production hit 192,353 ounces, near the higher end of their guidance range of producing between 181,000 to 194,000 ounces.
They got an average silver price of $24.18 per silver equivalent ounce, a 5% increase from the September quarter. Their cash cost was $12.32 and all-in sustaining cost was $17.26 per silver equivalent ounce, both a 13% decrease from the September quarter. Wall Street liked the results and marked the stock up 7.2% today.
They ended the quarter with $237.9 million in cash. AG is a Buy under $15 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Square, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $39,369.74) still is stuck in the $40,000 area and, unlike gold, isn’t looking like a safe haven. It will be interesting to see how it reacts to a risk-on environment when either the Ukraine war ends or the Fed turns a bit dovish again.
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $107.11 (down from $128.14 – its first significant pullback in nearly a month)
Oil jumped as the US banned Russian oil, LNG, and coal without European participation. The Pioneer Natural Gas CEO said he expects oil to hit $150 to $200 a barrel. Russia said oil will hit $300 a barrel and it will cut off European gas if the West bans oil imports. It also said it has enough energy buyers – what would you expect Putin to say? Russia is the world’s top exporter of crude and oil products, roughly 7.8 million oil barrels per day (7% of the global supply). My guess is they can sell every drop, but at a big discount.
OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said: “There is no capacity in the world that could replace 7 million barrels per day.”
Commodity intelligence firm Kpler said even if the US shale sector decides on a truce with an administration that would have gladly watched it crash and burn, it still can’t replace Russian oil in the short term. Russia exports around five million barrels a day of crude and 2.8 million barrels a day of refined products. According to Kpler’s estimates, Russian crude oil exports could drop by as much as 1.5 million barrels a day from April onward.
We’re about to enter the phase where oil gaps up $5 to $10 a day, and does it for months on end. Got oil?
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.85) is a buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
* * * * *
Notes from a Foreign Policy Association meeting about the situation in the Ukraine – these appear to be real. (h/t subscriber Charles Porter – emphasis added)
Dear All,
I went to a thoughtful seminar last night put on by the Foreign Policy Association about the situation in the Ukraine. The guests included a professor at the National War College who was also an adviser to the DOD, the CIA and other agencies, a former ambassador to the Ukraine who was originally from the area and an expert on the country, General Wesley Clark, who was a former chief allied commander and also a former commandant at NATO itself. To sum up:
1. The Ambassador put the situation in context, including the Russian point of view. He said the Russians don’t think Putin is crazy which has been going around the U.S. media and elsewhere here. His Russification behavior has a long precedent going back in Russian history on which he elaborated.
2. They all said this was really a war between two Nuclear Superpowers, not just the Ukraine: The U.S. and Russia. That is the more important war here and now.
3. The War College guy said war is no longer the same because it now includes cyber war. It is not just land /air fighting, despite the Russian 40 mile long train of trucks/tanks. The problem the U.S. is facing is that the Russians currently have the capability now to shut down the entire U.S. electric grid with cyber weapons. They did it recently with the pipeline. All those sorts of warfare are directed from the Kremlin, regardless of what the Russian say (as we know). Many American companies currently have not invested in adequate cyber protection, both large and small. They are currently very vulnerable to attack.
4. Putin has threatened using nuclear weapons. These are primarily ground nuclear weapons where right now where they have superiority over the Americans. The Americans didn’t keep up their force in this area.
5. They all agreed that Putin has his eye on the Baltic as well.
6. They obviously all agree that what he has done, in terms of human suffering, is awful. He doesn’t care. But, the point of the discussion was what the U.S. should realistically be doing. There was no agreement.
7. Biden, by shutting down or limiting oil/gas production turned us, as we know, into an energy dependent country over the last 2 years. Despite sanctions, the U.S. is still today buying a lot of Russian oil/gas. [But no more – sanctions now in place] I didn’t realize this and was stunned. So is Europe, which I knew. But, we are no longer in a position to replace the Russian fossil fuels.
8. The sanctions are piecemeal with holes because of the above. Not all the banks are shut, for example. We sanction them and buy their energy at the same time.
9. In terms of China, Biden has not given a clear message about Taiwan. He needs to state very clearly: If you invade Taiwan, we will fight you. The Chinese are not in a position now to go to war with the U.S. But, right now, we are not being clear with them. Big problem.
10. In terms of the China /Russia alliance, no one felt that the Chinese would bail out the Russians, if it came to that. Economically, they are not in a position to do that now, given their own economic issues. Also, they don’t want a strong Russia on their border and they might want to probably invade, at some point, the Russian areas at the far end near Mongolia (Manchuria?) and take them back. Russia has never been an easy ally of the Chinese historically or now.
11. Because of the ambiguities with regard to the Russians and us, no one felt the U.S. was going to send our soldiers into the Ukraine – boots on the ground. The General wanted to. The Army War College guy said that if we push Putin too far, he will use nuclear weapons or shut us down. So, far Putin hasn’t. Not an accident.
12. My take from this very serious discussion is that the U.S. is not going to fight the Russians directly (like it or not). I had the feeling U.S. policy was not clearly formulated. That we were not prepared adequately for this invasion, despite all the signals and warnings for years. I also had the sense that NATO is going to go up to the Ukrainian border and will stop there.
13. The Ukrainian people are going to lose in the end and they will be the sacrificial lambs. Europe will have another major refugee problem on its door front.
14. The only good thing that appears to be coming from all this is that NATO which was a mess, seems to have come together. Too little, too late.
So, that was one evening’s discussion. I thought you might be interested in hearing about not – from the news media . I left extremely depressed. I’m too old for this. I feel that the post-WW 2 world view of my youth and middle age which involved globalization saving the world and the end of the Cold War has become undone. We are perhaps facing a new world order and I’m not sure what that means anymore. 1984 ?
Best,
Cathy
* * * * *
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Your worried about the consequences of Biden’s sanctions Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
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Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $3.91) – Buy under $5, first target $10, then $50
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.13) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.09) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.90) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
CohBar (CWBR – $0.27) – Buy under $2, hold a long time
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $12.57) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $9.14) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $3.41) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $8.15) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.38) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $3.99) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.77) – Buy under $5, target $15 or $25
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $9.01) – Buy under $40, target price $80+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $37.01) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Facebook (FB – $195.21) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $57.92) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $19.94) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $49.196) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $14.69) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $29.48) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.06) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.97) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $8.74) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $7.15) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $26.12 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $33.54) – Buy under $25, target price $50
ALPS Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $44.96) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $19.85) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $37.19) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.82) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $13.70) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.79) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $8.33) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $46.14) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $39,369.74) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $26.60) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,548.36) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $20.48) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $30.50) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $37.41 – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $16.70) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $26.66) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.35) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.52) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Oil
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.85) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.22) – Hold for CEO comment
Apple Computer (AAPL – $158.52) – Hold for 5G iPhones
Sell
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI – $5.57)
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Right on.
MM with the upcoming 4/22 advisory committee meeting, shouldn’t TGTX be on your near term list?
Soon.
Acreage Holdings Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 (globenewswire.com)
Looks pretty good – revenue up 84% YOY, Gross Margin 51%, positive EBITA for 2021.
MM, I love NVTA long term prospects, but Sean George has done a terrible job of running the company particularly from a shareholder point of view. He has constantly burned millions all the while going back on his word about getting the burn down.
Much of it for acquisitions that are making the company an unbeatable powerhouse. Big bets for a huge payoff. I think it works, but Wall Street hates the short-term cash burn – just as they hated Amazon from time to time.
LOL. Amazon never got this badly beat down. No comparison. Please update us on INO.
AMZN down over 90% in two years Oct 1999-Oct 2002.
Tx for that, but it doesn’t help the ass whooping we are getting with nvta recently
Outstanding Radar Report Michael Murphy. Your section on Uranium and rare earth and metals is superb. UUUU should probably be a new buy soon. I think we need to transit to a self-sufficiency and export status for fossil fuels quickly, but to be practical, we may need to wait for the November elections for that to happen. The foreign policy summary was interesting, especially our weakness in the grid cyber security. Utility oversight in individual states is problematic for links between states and hence its distributed cyber capacity. We are in great risk for increasing blackouts this year as maintenance in generating facilities using fossil fuels has been back benched from climate change radical change advocates, IMHO.
I think that our current military leadership is very weak in terms of combat readiness. Our national budget is a “defund the military” allocation one including the recent 1.5 trillion budget sent from the House to the Senate. Again, we have to wait till November for changes
Finally, with respect to General Clark, I was never impressed with his leadership. He put no integrated readiness priorities for member countries and never pushed for the 2% share equality agreement. The result was a leadership position for the US and minor contributions for the rest of NATO. That began to change with our last President, but Germany and the others are dependent on Russia, which won’t be corrected unless we can get out energy prominence restored on the export side as well. Ukraine….I see the decision to not send planes an error. No need to chase Russian planes out of Ukraine bounds. The strategy by the Ukrainians would be to use US intelligence for areas where there have been urban bombings while the ground troops have really hit the Russian. That would not lead to WWIII, The net result will be Russia with major damage to Ukraine and more territory, but the Ukraine intact but not in NATO, is my guess if they get the planes. If not, Can’t imagine how bad it can be.
GLTA in this environment.
One more thing. The piece on the Windmill is right on target. Useless from a climate change perspective. The most recent studies I have see indicate that when a 30% alternative energy saturation is realized, the environmental and finance benefits flip to a negative.
“Our national budget is a “defund the military” … what in the actual hell are you talking about? Our military budget is nearly a trillion a year and passes both chambers easily every year.
What are you going to say when Biden brokers a peace deal with Putin? I’m sure it will spun as something pro trump.
BTW .. that windmill “piece” isn’t a piece .. it’s a MEME and it’s dead wrong.
These US stock market drops were predicted repeatedly by the Subscriber Michael Aggressive Technology Model Portfolio Newsletter, which is free to New World Investor subscribers who read the Comments section. 😉
Well those VXX options paid off handsomely but I think we are about to get a rip your face off rally when the fed shows they have no power over inflation.
Notes from foreign policy meetings about Putin’s support by US citizens and leaders – these appear to be real.
“As Russia’s Vladimir Putin began his invasion of Ukraine this week, Donald Trump described the Russian leader’s military offensive as “genius” and “very savvy.” Referring to Putin declaring portions of Ukraine as independent, Trump said it was a “wonderful” strategy.
The former U.S. president even went so far as to endorse the Kremlin’s rhetoric, saying Putin would “be a peacekeeper,” adding, “They’re gonna keep peace all right.”
Trump kept going, issuing a written statement touting Putin and admonishing his own country’s President Biden. At Mar-a-Lago, the Republican kept the celebration going, telling an assembled crowd how “smart” Putin is for launching a military offensive against his neighbor.
Sen. Lindsey Graham was in attendance for Trump’s comments, and soon after, he appeared on Fox News to push a curious message:
“I miss Donald Trump. If Donald Trump were president, none of this crap would be going on because you got to be strong. When you’re weak is when everything falls apart.”
Before getting elected in 2016, Trump already showed signs of weakness when it came to his political benefactors in Moscow. During the Republican National Convention, for example, the candidate and his team showed no real interest in the platform’s contents, except to remove language about providing Ukraine with defensive weapons.
Also before Election Day, Trump touted Putin for having “outsmarted“ U.S. leaders.
All the while, Trump was seeking, receiving, benefiting from, and lying about Russia’s intervention in the 2016 elections on his behalf.
During the post-election presidential transition period, Trump spoke openly about easing sanctions on Russia, which roughly coincided with Michael Flynn’s secret communications with Russia, which he would later lie to the FBI about.
Two weeks after his inauguration day, Trump talked about his “respect” for Putin. Reminded that the Russian autocrat is a “killer,” Trump questioned his own country’s moral authority. “We’ve got a lot of killers,” Trump said. “What, do you think our country’s so innocent?”
Two weeks later, top members of Trump’s team explored ways to lift sanctions against Russia.
Trump had only been in office for a few months when he prepared to reward Russia — apparently in exchange for nothing — by giving it diplomatic compounds on American soil that had been taken during the Obama administration.
The same month, Trump welcomed Russian diplomats into the Oval Office — at Putin’s request — at which time the Republican revealed highly classified information to his Russian guests for no apparent reason.
By July 2017, as Congress approved new sanctions against Russia for having attacked our elections, the Trump White House tried to weaken the legislation. The then-president grudgingly signed the bill — not because he supported it, but because it passed by veto-proof margins. He then issued a statement criticizing Congress’ proposal.
The same month, Trump had a private chat with Putin, after which the Republican announced plans to partner with Russia on an “impenetrable Cyber Security unit.”
In August 2017, the Russian government expelled 755 people from the American embassy and consulate staff. Trump responded by “thanking” Putin and saying he “greatly appreciated” the striking diplomatic move.
In early 2018, after Putin won a sham election, White House officials pleaded with Trump not to congratulate the Russian leader. Trump ignored them.
A few months later, Trump appeared alongside Putin in Helsinki, lashed out at Americans he doesn’t like, and announced that he considered the Russian leader more reliable than his own country’s intelligence agencies. As 2018 neared its end, Trump lifted Russian sanctions.
In 2019, leveraged military aid to launch an illegal extortion scheme with Ukraine, personally forced out a capable U.S. ambassador in Ukraine, and called for Russia to be welcomed back into the G7.
During his re-election campaign, Trump also prepared to withdraw U.S. troops from Germany, which also happened to be in line with Moscow’s wishes.
All the while, Trump criticized NATO, expressed disdain for the European Union, and undermined democracy in the United States — which also put the Republican’s agenda in line with Putin’s plans.
Trump’s own director of national intelligence, Dan Coats, suggested to Bob Woodward that he couldn’t shake the suspicion that Trump was beholden to Putin.”
For some reason, Putin felt emboldened.
GOP voters heads must be spinning. First it was praise for Putin being a genius countered with an 85% approval rating for Ukraine/Zelenskyy.
Endless claims of voter fraud is also bound to mess with GOP voters heads .. why bother voting in a rigged election.
Russia/Ukraine will be worked out peacefully and Oil and inflation will collapse. What will the Fox talking points be then?
4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind.
They were all facts, not opinions. Just facts. I know, Republicans decide what the facts are!!
“Reminded that the Russian autocrat is a killer”, yeah right. So tell us, maybe in less than 50,000 words, what does incinerating 2 Afghani families, 10 people, civilians not wearing camo and not holding AKs, in Kabul with an Hellfire missile last August make Joe Biden who gave the order?
Mark Richardson, Research Associate, Colorado State University/NASA JPL:
The average working wind farm that has been studied produces about 20 times more energy than was used to make them1. Some wind farms are better, some are worse. Solar, too, produces more energy than was used to make the solar farm.
Ken Caldeira, Senior Scientist, Carnegie Institution for Science:
Numbers for “Energy Return on Investment” (EROI) are all over the place, but a nice summary with references to supporting information was produced for Scientific American by Mason Inman for the April 2013 edition of Scientific American. Mason estimated that wind returns about 20 times the energy input and solar around 6 times their energy input. While these numbers do depend on a range of assumptions, the idea that these ratios are less than one is wrong and not defensible.
The construction of wind turbines and solar panels does result in some carbon dioxide emission but far less than would be emitted were that electricity generated using fossil fuels such as coal, gas, or oil. Therefore, if the alternative is fossil fuels, these technologies help avoid carbon dioxide emissions.
It should be noted that Energy Return on Investment is likely to increase over time as the economy becomes more efficient and thus economic inputs to the production of energy technologies becomes less energy intensive.
Mark Diesendorf, Honorary Associate Professor, University of New South Wales:
The energy input to a wind farm is generated in 3 to 6 months of its operation, depending on location, and the energy input to a solar farm is generated in 1 to 3 years of its operation, depending on location and type of solar panel used. Both wind and solar farms have expected lifetimes of about 25 years.
Thanks a lot Opie for the correct information on the energy return on energy investment for windmills.
Michael what is it saying when PZG has 40,000,000 shares out and 39,000,000 trade in the first hour and a half of trading?
Bots.
If NVTA is SUCH a well run company can you explain why it’s stock price is more than 80% off its highs?
Also INO .. are you FINALLY going to admit you were wrong? That stock is also more than 80% off its highs?
As far as your cut and paste from “Cathy” … wouldn’t it be more professional to provide a link?
Your anti Biden, pro Trump, anti windmill???? ( and I believe anti solar) stuff is quite trying to slog through. Particularly for a newsletter called the NEW WORLD investor.
You are correl,michael nvta, drops almost every day,well run companies don’t act like this,com on sean step up
I guess until Cramer says buy it ,it will continue to drop,so sad
I’m in nvta till the end ,breakeven for me is 19.50,oh well ,won’t sell at this point
NVTA- A very large portion of its decline is attributable to the ongoing Bear Market in Biotech, as well as non-Cash Flow generating techs, that started in February 2021. XBI is on the verge of a further breakdown so it is possible, barring a huge rally/bounce this week, that this bear market is entering a new phase and that NVTA will experience lower lows.
MRNA is a screaming buy here. Sell what’s left of your NVTA and INO and push into MRNA.
What makes MRNA a screaming buy??
Before the clinical data is posted?
MRNA has around 25 billion in cash with a PE of 5. They are on the verge of a cancer cure. Find me a better biotech company.
Official tallies suggest the U.S. is approaching the unfathomable milestone of 1 million COVID-19 deaths.
But one team of researchers thinks the nation has already passed that point.
Researchers at the University of Washington looked at excess death estimates on a global scale and found an estimated 18.2 million people may have died by the end of 2021 due to the pandemic – more than three times the official toll, according to the peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet. Read more on the study from USA TODAY health reporter Adrianna Rodriguez here.
Reply to Michael “Meme” Murphy:”4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind.” So why did you publish the right-wing anti-emerging technology windmill meme in your Radar Report?
Do you really believe that electric utility companies are building wind farms, and are so ignorant about their electrical generation business, that they build windmills that NEVER generate as much energy as required to build them? Anyone who thought about this for more than a few seconds would realize its misinformation.
Do you really believe that countries around the globe are building wind farms composed of windmills that NEVER generate as much energy as required to build them?
Do you really believe that Texans are so stupid that they construct massive wind farms, and spend state money to upgrade their electrical infrastructure to support the transmission of electricity from these wind farms, when windmills NEVER generate as much energy as the energy required to build it?
Look up Homer-Dixon. A Canadian academic who published in the New York Times and the left-leaning Huffington Post about resilience and civilization, stating the Alberta tar sands industry is undermining Canadian democracy. So right wing misinformation sources publish obviously false misinformation to associate his name with this blatant anti-windmill misinformation. Namely, Michael Murphy publishes false misinformation. NOT THE FIRST TIME YOU HAVE PUBLISHED STUPID MISINFORMATION MEMES IN YOUR RADAR REPORT. No doubt not the last, you can’t stop yourself from apparently being conned into believing obvious misinformation that suits your right-wing Pro-Trump mentality. Or maybe you aren’t conned, you intend to con us, or spread misinformation knowingly, to subscribers who pay you for investment information, not paying for political BS.
And you claim repeatedly that you do not publish “political” items in your Radar Report. BS! This windmill misinformation is political. This letter from mysterious “Cathy” that states in bold font:
· “Biden, by shutting down or limiting oil/gas production turned us, as we know, into an energy dependent country…”
· “Biden has not given a clear message about Taiwan”
Anti-Biden statements in a discussion about Putin’s invasion? Whose side are you on?? Disinformation published in your Radar Report. Don’t give us the “someone else said that” argument. YOU PUBLISHED THIS IN YOUR RADAR REPORT. Not related to a new investment idea posted in the Radar Report. You keep doing this. You’ve been called out for this over, and over, and over. And you can’t stop yourself. Think about that. What is wrong with you??
WE DON’T PAY YOU TO PUBLISH RIGHT-WING MISINFORMATION. You are supposed to publish “New World” investment information. Emerging technology. You could have published a real analysis about windmills or wind farms, or possibly suggested investing in companies designing, manufacturing, or in the electrical power industry. We could have invested in NextEra Energy (NEE) and made a great investment return. But you publish obvious misinformation instead. Totally unprofessional.
@Opie. Sorry to hear the progressive talking points about how great our president is and how we can spend our way out of this inflation and do the same with money to beat back Russia in the Ukraine. The average Russian in Moscow today is really upset about not having access to their ATMs. The piece about windmills is: “minimalist: rather than conservative propaganda. That is a 2M windmill. Bigger ones are even worse. With their light density carbon profiles. Windmills are the biggest alternative scam in the public Climate Change repertoire today. Please read “Unsettled” by Steve Koonin {not the summary version badly done} The best we can do based upon detailed analysis is a maximum 30% infusion of light density alternative into our energy profile before it becomes carbon additive. {that is wind,solar,batteries, etc} Try Michael Schellenberger as well, even Robert Bryce in today’s WSJ who tells Biden “It’s Sacramento not Moscow” He hits the nail on the head. Imagine that. I don’t want those progressives pushing up spending and prices so that their EV’s look cheap. Is this 1984? Not our country. Let shake hands and look at inflation again, I have a separate question posted asking about the real inflation rate.BTW Murphy’s attention on UUUU and Cameco are solid recommendations. Do your own DD but mine says they are superb buys. JMHO.
Progressives in the Dem party do not consider Biden great. I’m sure you’ve seen their disagreements in the news most every week.
The meme about windmills is disinformation. Absolutely false. The supposed author is not the author. This nonsense should not be posted by Murphy. Why is he putting crap like this in the Radar Report?? I believe Murphy knew this meme was false information, but posted it anyway. For all I know, Murphy is the one who authored this meme, but he probably just posted it in his Radar Report to spit on our faces. Anybody could just google the author’s name and see its misinformation.
Tell me why conservative Texas has been building massive wind farms. Were they all scammed? Are electric utilities all scammed? Are all the other countries scammed too? Or Donald, have you been scammed?
You want to suggest some readings? How about reading some articles from the supposed author of the BS meme, Thomas Homer-Dixon, who’s got a resume far more impressive than Murphy or anyone else on this comments board. Here’s a few of his real articles:
“Trump Needs a War,” Toronto Globe and Mail, June 28, 2017.
“Canada Must Not Give Up the Fight on Climate Change” Toronto Globe and Mail,
January 2, 2017.
“President Trump Will Make Chaos the New Normal” Toronto Globe and Mail, November 24, 2016.
“How Alberta Could Champion a New Energy Source,” Toronto Globe and Mail, August 8, 2016.
Here’s Homer-Dixon’s biography:
https://homerdixon.com/biography/
I agree Don. I bought UUUU last week at $8.00 and change. Looking at all the current events and things that are going on , I think it’s another slam dunk. Just IMO
“Mr Murphy, tear down this meme!”
–Ronald Reagan
First, there was an important sentence left out of that quote.
Second, I believe Gen IV nuclear is the right way to generate electricity, not windmills or solar, and I had a 4200-watt solar system on my Half Moon Bay ranch.
Third, the debate – remember them? – over the right way to generate electricity is not right-wing vs. left-wing, it is about facts and engineering. See Windmills increase fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions or, from MIT Technology Review, Wide-scale US wind power could cause significant warming.
Fourth, I am not “pro-Trump,” I am a pro-America Libertarian and a registered Democrat. My political instincts are left of Bernie, but I can do math and have some understanding of human behavior.
Fifth, the two statements about Biden are true. I criticized Trump when I thought he did something wrong, and I’ll criticize Biden when I think he’s done something wrong.
Sixth, and most importantly, I will publish non-investment information, analysis, and commentary whenever I want to.
First, that meme is blatant misinformation. You POSTED obvious misinformation. You have yet to explain why you did this. We expect you to provide accurate information. Please explain your rationale. Or just admit you made an impulsive mistake or were misled or whatever.
The listed author didn’t make that quote, and his positions are vastly contrary to the quote you published in your Radar Report. The quote was intended to attack the person who is listed as the author. You are publishing an obviously false attack meme. Are you claiming the author actually said this? Where did you get this meme? Did YOU make it up??
“I will publish non-investment information…whenever I want to.” In other words, you believe you can publish lies attacking a left-leaning academic because you assert this is your newsletter, not our newsletter. We are your customer, and we paid for investment information, not misinformation and attacks on some academic.
The quote says windmills NEVER produce as much energy as the power it took to build it. You now change that, to tell me to read some garbage about windmills increase fossil fuel consumption, CO2 emissions, and “significant warming.” Why change the subject? Why not just admit that this quote is not only attributed falsely, its misinformation in its assertion about power produced. It is incorrect to assert that a windmill NEVER produces as much power as it took to build it.
Blatantly incorrect. Doesn’t even make any sense if you think about it. Explain why Texas has all those wind farms, and upgrades its electrical transmission grid to accommodate all that power. Are they really that stupid? Are all other countries equally stupid to be installing wind power? Are utility companies in the business of making money generating and distributing electrical power all so stupid and ignorant? What makes you and your false posting so superior to all the people who are involved in wind power?
And if you claim you “can do math”, show me the math here. I have a math degree, taught statistics and computer science courses at two universities, got 750-797 in GRE math aptitude and achievement tests. You claim you “have some understanding of human behavior.” You have an economics degree. Bernie has a political science degree. Bernie is more successful than either of us. What is your assertion that “you can do math” or your dislike of Bernie somehow make you justified in publishing a falsified quote?? Bernie has nothing to do with this as far as I can see, except to reveal your unspoken political justification for publishing obvious inaccurate information.
Saying you prefer nuclear is no excuse to post blatantly incorrect information about windmills. Especially a technology investment newsletter, you should be making accurate statements about technology.
You ought to be ashamed of yourself for posting garbage like this meme. You have an underlying political motivation, and lecture us about not posting about politics, when you keep doing it yourself in your Radar Reports. A number of us have complained about this over and over.
Yes you were pro-Trump. You kept posting pro-Trump comments during and after the election. Including posting information about a survey research study by a Trump-supporting academic mathematician that claimed to show that Trump likely won the election, used to attempt to invalidate the election in court. The author recanted his assertions when a bunch of us pointed out all the problems in his study, especially the part where the data was given to him by a former Trump consultant, and never validated. Just “doing the math” with suspect data doesn’t prove anything. “Garbage in, garbage out” is the saying in the data analysis community.
You are a libertarian and make statements consistent with that. So what if you registered as a democrat. You keep saying you prefer the libertarian candidate. Some registered Dems voted for Trump and even some Republican leaders refused to vote for Trump. I don’t see how disliking Bernie or your political party registration has anything to do with windmills except to reveal that your motivation for posting this false crap is political.
BTW you keep bringing up Bernie. In case you think I’m a Bernie bro, I’m not. I don’t particularly like the guy, but I respect him, which obviously you do not. And I respect Homer-Dixon, and resent you slandering the guy by posting a dumb quote meme.
I don’t know why this is a zero sum game. We can have windmills, solar, nukes, hydrogen .. all at the same time. The goal is to get rid of oil dependence, something we should have done 20 years ago if not for the oil lobby in everyone’s pockets.
Your reply says “Last edited 12 hours ago by Michael Murphy”
Hmm…strike one against Libertarianism
Fusion energy would be ideal.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-60312633
Superior but still in the research stage, as is Murphy’s Gen IV nuclear.
Yes, we can have windmills, solar, nukes, hydrogen…all at the same time. Add oil, nat gas to your list. No need to politically destroy the US oil industry and Keystone pipeline. Let the free market sort out the balance, in accordance with facts about costs, benefits and consumer demand for each modality of power generation.
You love to bash libertarianism. Are you opposed to liberty/freedom? I know the answer, even if you don’t answer the question.
Good for you. The thing about wind power and solar is that the wind doesn’t blow all the time and the sun doesn’t shine all the time. It’s NOT a 24 hour thing. The actual “run times” are quite surprising. So how is that supposed to replace the 24-7 power generated by fossil fuels? Especially with the energy demand increasing daily. It’s not a one trick pony, or one simplistic answer to fix the worlds energy appetite. It’s going to take multiple approaches to meet the world’s needs. IMO
Good points. I wonder if the studies cited by Opie take into account the fraction of 24 hours when the wind is active. Analogy–if you open the office for only 1 hour a day, it may not be economically viable if you have to pay full time salaries and monthly rent. Low margin businesses like grocery stores are open 14-24 hours/day to improve the economics.
It is spelled N-U-C-L-E-A-R. Just bury the waste where it was supposed to go in Nevada.
Gev IV burns nuclear waste as fuel
MM – Raoul Pal, whom I listen to frequently (his website RealVision) said he has sources telling him that at least 2 Bitcoin Spot ETF’s will be approved in April-May timeframe. I’m hoping they will also include Etherium. So, do you recommend fronting this with investment and is GBTC and ETHE still the best play or is BTC and ETF coins?
Steve, at first I thought you were quoting Ru Paul and I thought what the heck has happened to this newsletter LOL
As long as you don’t try to pay in roubles — then you’re in rubble. (And that’s real trouble.)
Approval is inevitable, but we’ve been burned so many times on the date I just think it’s a big positive whenever it happens. Meanwhile, GBTC and ETHE are the best investments because they sell at a discount to net asset value that will disappear when they convert to ETFs.
@Michael Murphy and all. I saw a very interesting interview on CNBC yesterday morning after the inflation rate of 7.9% was announced. The interviewee was a former Fed guy, I think. My aging brain escapes me. He made the point that revisions to CPI to the present modifications, if used today would yield a 20-21% Inflation rate. When you dig into those food numbers, etc. that sounded more accurate. Fisher said that the rate for the past three months was 10% plus. In any event, is it possible that current projection of an easing of inflation in the fall or sooner should be extended to maybe next year and Recession? {the latter of which you mention in this Radar}. The House passed bill is loaded with the T letter again. and a return to “earmarks” If this passes the Senate things look like the classic German billion-mark bills of many years ago.
The base effect starts to go away this month and pretty much disappears in April, so the headline numbers should fall. They’ll still be way above 2%, though, so the Fed will keep raising until they cause a recession.
So tell me why we should be invested in this environment?
Arch Therapeutics Partners with Centurion Therapeutics to Expand Access to AC5® Advanced Wound System:https://ir.archtherapeutics.com/press-releases/detail/574
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Great move, though another middleman to take away cash flow. Need to know how our sales force is doing.
ARTH- TN is running out of cash imminently so he issues these PR in 1999-2000 style hoping to support/pop the stock. Obviously, it is not working; so, if he wants to receive his $35,000.- check in April he is going to have to find some moron willing to part ways with his/her cash real soon. My bet is that he will not find anybody and that it is game over, after 7 long years.
NVTA
Before I drink the “Kool Aid” on this one what are you missing on this one MM, what are you missing or does the whole world got it wrong?
NVTA- Biotech/Medtech/Tech Bear Market in full swing, see my comments above. MM or others may be right about this and still cause you to lose 50% of your capital.
Short-term, they will burn cash to get the #1 market share. So Wall Street hates them.
Long-term, they will be the Amazon of genetic testing and an extremely valuable company. So I like them.
It’s just a question of your time frame.
Michael, at what price is “Back up the truck” on NVTA? Tia
We are there.
Michael, you do not understand why NVTA is heading lower. It is all about Cathie Wood. Until NVTA is liquidated from ARKK it will not head higher. The day she sells it, buy every share you can get your hands on.
I get her daily trade reports. I don’t think she sold any in February or March, so far.
And speaking of Cathie Wood. You talked about adding PLTR to your recommended list. Now you have your chance. She just liquidated PLTR at the dead low!! All aboard!
She’s buying Velo3D every day.
Sorry to hear that. I used to sit on trading desks with traders like her and we would FADE her all day long.
Before l die and I figure 10 really good years
How’s that time frame fit with NVTA?
NVTA should dominate and be profitable by 2025, and be a must-own stock before 2030.
MM AND BOARD
What is the best way to short the dollar ((:
Gold, crypto, real estate, hard assets
Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN)
But remember, this is the dollar vs other currencies and the dollar will go up if it is the healthiest horse in the glue factory. If you want to bet on the dollar losing value relative to real assets, I agree with dstl.
Also, the world’s reserve currency has to be available to everyone all the time. Weaponizing the dollar in the Ukraine war must have seemed like a good idea short-term, but it will hasten the end of the dollar’s reserve currency status.
Thanks to you both ((-:
@Michael Murphy, in keeping with your prohibition on copyright material, one of the large investment advice vendors has indicated that their top precious metal stock this year is SAND.They see some possible acquisition of significant pieces of operating mines on the horizon.
It’s a great long-term precious metals stock – excellent management
Several other newsletters I get are all saying gold is heading sufficiently higher soon. The why’s : The real inflation rate, the volatile oil market, the war in Ukraine. China’s lockdown and their recent stock market crash, several big companies either shutting down or suspending operations in Russia and Ukraine. (Intel for one has moved all of their employees in Ukraine to other countries) the Fed’s inability to make any real difference without taking the economy into the toilet bowl and finally the world is full of uncertainty.
I agree. However, just as oil turned down recently, gold’s gains could be only short term. Long term, gold looks to be in a bull market due to massive money printing.
@Michael Murphy and all. To continue the gold discussion. Sprott has a brochure that lists 10 reasons to own gold. #10 sure sounds and from the chart looks like now. Comment?
Sprott 10 Reasons to Own Gold Brochure
The new Radar Report for 3.17.22 is posted. Happy St. Paddy’s day!