Dear New World Investor:
Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Or as best you can, with headlines like:
Yuan Jumps After Report on Saudis Weighing Its Use in Oil Deals (Whoops, there goes reserve currency status for the dollar)
U.S. consumer sentiment near 11-year low; near-term inflation worries mount (Whoops, there goes consumer spending, 70% of the economy)
Fed raises interest rates for the first time since 2018 (Whoops, there goes easy money – although it’s still cheap)
While Fed Chairman Powell reportedly “scoffs” at fears of a recession, Goldman Sachs now sees a 35% risk of recession in 2022. That is broadly in line with the 20% to 35% odds currently implied by models based on the slope of the yield curve. But there’s good news from the new Bond King, Jeffery Gundlach, who thinks the recession won’t hit until 2023.
The good news? Both institutional and retail investors are very bearish, and bull markets don’t die until everyone is bullish.
Hedge funds:
The “smart” money that keeps on under-performing has scaled back on net longs to the lowest level since April 2020.
Individuals:
Sentiment:
In this environment, people will run to exchange-traded funds like the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF (INFL) that holds energy, commodity, and financial services stocks; or gold, bitcoin, real estate, antiques, classic cars, and anything else that can protect their wealth in uncertain times.
Owning some of those is a good idea, but the main thing to own is high potential growth selling at cheap prices. That’s why I recommend the $20-for-$1 biotechs that Wall Street doesn’t believe can get a blockbuster drug approved; the likely winners in small-cap tech, rockets, and space; precious metals; bitcoin and ethereum, beaten-down Chinese tech; cannabis; energy; and big tech when Wall Street hates it, like Apple under $28 at the end of 2015 or Meta and SoftBank today.
The S&P 500 added 3.6% since last Thursday as it digested the Ukraine war and a more hawkish Fed. The Index is down just 7.4% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3.7% and is down 13% for the year as it climbs out of bear market territory. The small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 2.7% and is down 8.0% in 2022.
I said last week that: “The fractal dimension gave another downtrend signal, so again we heed to see a quick recovery or we should buckle up for a deeper decline.”
We got that quick recovery in spades because investors are too bearish and there is too much money on the sidelines. Anyone who wanted to sell because of the war, the virus, the weak March quarter GDP, the Fed, or their bogeyman of choice has sold. When you run out of sellers, prices rise. We’re back in consolidation land and waiting for a real trend.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
ATRS Antares Pharma – Tlando approval March 28
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat approval March 29
FB Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is up to 1.3% growth for the March quarter and the Blue Chip economists are down to 1.7%, so they are converging on a weak but not negative print.
Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 465,141,127 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 403,252,137 have run their course. Of those, 397,168,302 recovered and 6,083,835 died – matching last week’s new low case fatality rate of 1.5%.
In the US, there have been 81,289,602 confirmed infections, of which 57,625,856 have run their course. Of those, 56,631,117 recovered and 994,739 died, a slightly improved case fatality rate of 1.7%.
It’s worrisome, though, that the moving-average case fatality rate is up to 2.24% and steadily climbing.
The good news is that daily cases have fallen to near 30,000.
Hospitalizations are under 21,000.
Daily deaths are under 1,000.
Over 80% of the population over five years old has had at least one vaccine shot, including almost 90% of adults. About three-fourths are fully vaccinated (not shown).
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Sunday, March 20
Spring Equinox – 11:33am
Tuesday, March 22
APTO – Aptose – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, March 24
Short interest – After the close
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.15) presented at the Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference (ZOOM HERE and SLIDES HERE). CEO Bill Rice made it official by for the first time calling HM43239 their “lead molecule.” It is in a Phase1/ 2 trial and closer to a registrational trial than Luxeptinib, plus it is showing better results.
HM43239 is treating relapsed and refractory acute myeloid leukemia patients with once-daily dosing and has several complete responses. It now is treating Cohort 6 with a 200-milligram dose.
The new Luxeptinib G3 formulation is designed to deliver more drug by improving absorption while reducing the pill burden, now six pills twice a day. They have completed the preclinical testing and manufacturing, and have completed the protocol amendments for both the acute myeloid leukemia and the chronic lymphocytic leukemia/non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma trials.
Wall Street wants to see more clinical cures. Those are coming this year. APTO is a Buy under $4 for a $45 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1a
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: late 2022 or early 2023
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.09) chose Centurion Therapeutics to distribute AC5 to non-government hospitals. Centurion distributes aseptically processed human tissues to support surgeons in a broad array of specialties through over a hundred contracted wound care distributors nationwide.
Most distributors just distribute – they don’t sell. I couldn’t find out if Centurion is a stocking distributor that will place an order for its inventory, but most likely it isn’t. It’s still up to Arch to convince surgeons and their patients to try AC5 before they do a diabetic foot amputation.
Just to set the record straight, although AC5 was approved in December 2018, it did not receive marketing approval from the FDA until March 2020. During that 15-month period, Arch seeded Key Opinion Leaders with samples of AC5 to generate case studies and build demand. In the two years since marketing approval they tried to sell it without much of a sales force. Norchi never intended to build a sales force.
But when that plan didn’t work, they did a big $6.9 million offering in February 2021 that substantially diluted CEO Terry North’s ownership and launched a serious sales effort. They appointed a VP: Sales in July, signed up Lovell Government Services in September, and now Centurion.
I still think a lot of the 73,000 people a year who get a diabetic foot ulcer amputation would rather keep their foot, and the entities that have to pay for surgery, hospitalization, recovery, orthotics, and rehab will welcome a much cheaper alternative. We shall see. ARTH is a Buy up to $0.70 for a $2 target after a distribution deal is signed and a $7 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2022
Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2023
Probable time of next financing: June 2022 quarter
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $12.37) is on the right track as others are finding that psilocybin’s antidepressant effects are rapid and durable in major depressive disorder.
Researchers with the Center for Psychedelic and Consciousness Research at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine said two doses of psilocybin provided in the context of supportive therapy (which is the Compass protocol) produced “large and stable” antidepressant effects throughout a 12-month follow-up period. CMPS is a Buy under $36 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2023
Inovio (INO – $3.53) did a very informative fireside chat at the Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference (TRANSCRIPT HERE), including the analyst saying: “Also, it’s always puzzling to me sometimes the push-back I get on Inovio. And yet, you’ve got WHO as a partner in a large Phase 2 trial. You’ve got QIAGEN, one of the best companies out there as a partner in biomarker-driven strategy. You’ve got Thermo Fisher, one of the best manufacturers out there helping you manufacture. You’ve got Regeneron, one the best biotech companies out there with your GBM vaccine. So, I always kind of scratch my head…[on] why all this snark on Inovio. But anyways, that’s a different conversation.”
Me too, brother.
Dr. Kim said he expects to start a third Phase 3 program in 2022 for INO-3107 in recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, where they have Orphan Drug Designation.
They see INO-4800 as the universal booster because it elicits a strong T-cell response, which is the key to not getting a serious disease. It’s obvious that new virus variants will be circulating for years, INO-4800 gets the T-cell response against all of them, which the other vaccines do not. Further, doctors worry that getting the same vaccine over and over again is a bad idea because the immune system adjusts. It’s better to get a heterologous – different vaccine – booster shot.
Some of the vaccines that use viral vectors, like the adenovirus vector vaccines, can’t be boosted because of the anti-vector responses you generate. Some people may start to have more severe reactions to additional shots of the same boosters. DNA vaccines like INO-4800 have an important role in this ever-boosting environment of COVID pandemic and subsequently endemic. INO-4800 can be re-administered without any anti-vector responses.
Looking at vaccine usage globally, there are about eight billion vaccines administered across the world. About two-thirds of them were done with inactivated or killed vaccines or using a viral vector-like adenovirus – J&J adeno, AstraZeneca, Sinovac, and Sputnik. INO-4800 can effectively boost all of them. INO is a Buy under $21 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2022
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Invitae (NVTA – $8.11) announced full access to its Personalized Cancer Monitoring platform to help detect minimal or molecular residual disease in patients with solid tumors. PCM uses a set of personalized assays based on a patient’s tumor to detect circulating tumor DNA in blood using a liquid biopsy. Buy NVTA under $50 for a first target of $100 and eventually $200+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple‘s (AAPL – $160.62) new $429 iPhone SE got a rave review by the very influential TechCrunch. Some quotes:
“the iPhone SE is the platonic ideal of a smartphone”
“a prime example of a ‘just what it needs to be and nothing more’ smartphone”
“aggressively ramped the internals of the SE models, giving them incredible performance per dollar”
“still captures one of the better smartphone images out there”
“this phone will feel just as fast as the iPhone 13 for any daily driver kind of activity”
“it’s enormously pleasant to hold and use and does not ask much of you at all. It’s there to serve and vanish, not to be a presence”
“the best budget option in the smartphone market”
Well, when my iPhone X dies I know what I’m getting. AAPL is a Hold for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Meta Platforms (FB – $207.84) was designated by Russia as an “extremist organization” after the it changed its hate speech rules to allow users to call for violence against Russians in the context of the war with Ukraine.
The company made a rare presentation at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference (AUDIO HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). CFO Dave Wehner said they are seeing the rise in short-form video and their biggest growth opportunity right now is Reels, which is both a great growth opportunity yet a negative on ad impression and revenue growth in the near-term.
He said: “We expect to continue to improve the targeting and measurement in the new environment. And then longer term, on the advertising front, we see an opportunity to utilize more artificial intelligence and machine learning to optimize ads using less data. And then there is Reels, that’s a headwind today, but we think longer term, it can be a big opportunity for us. The short-form video opportunity is very large. It’s very monetizable. So, we think that will shift from being a headwind on impression growth in 2022 to being a tailwind as we start to put more ads into Reels going forward.”
FB is making a big investment in artificial intelligence and machine learning. As it pays off, it will translate into higher engagement and revenue. It’s a major opportunity for Meta. FB is a Buy under $320 for a $400 target in 2022.
Other Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $16.40) was named a Leader in the IDC MarketScape: Worldwide Commercial Content Delivery Network 2022 Vendor Assessment. They wrote: “Fastly is a highly innovative company with a large developer focus and a serverless compute environment that fortifies its content delivery services offering from a security and performance perspective. Fastly has shown strong growth in the past years and its roadmap reflects an ongoing drive for innovation and an investment strategy to further enrich its services stack.
“The commercial CDN market is evolving, and enterprises are looking for a strategic CDN partner that can adapt to their business needs. Fastly is a Leader in delivering CDN and edge application services. Its offerings are highly programmable, agile and easy to scale for customers. It is also easy to integrate with 3rd party CDN/edge services offerings via its multi-CDN services.”
FSLY is a Buy up to $45 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $150+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
PagerDuty (PD – $32.45) reported January quarter revenues up 32.4% from last year to $78.5 million with a pro forma loss of four cents a share. They beat on the top and bottom lines. The consensus was expecting $76.08 million and a six-cent loss.
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE) they said they finished the year with 14,865 paid customers, up 7.4% from last year. They had 594 customers with over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue, up 39.4% from last year’s 426. That included 43 customers with annual recurring revenue over $1 million, up 65.4% from last year’s 26.
The all-important dollar-based net retention rate – how much a customer spent in 2021 compared to 2020 – was 124% as of January 31, compared to 121% a year ago. New customer included BlueStream Communications, CloudEQ, Deliveroo, Doordash, Kyndrl, Mollie, Monotaro, Netflix, Nomi Health, and Sally Holdings.
Their available market is huge – they can grow 30% a year for a long time to come.
They guided for March quarter revenues of $81.5 million to $83.5 million, a growth rate of 28% to 31%, and above the $80.23 million consensus. But they said they’d lose eight to nine cents a share, worse than the six-cent estimate.
For the full January 2023 fiscal year they expect to have $360 million to $366 million in revenues, up 28% to 30%, and have a pro forma loss of 17¢ to 23¢ per share. The consensus was expecting $352.68 million with the highest estimate at $358 million. Their 19¢ loss estimate was in line. Wall Street liked the report and marked the stock up over 20% today.
As they grow, expenses as a percentage of revenues will shrink, turning them profitable.
The company finished the quarter with $543.4 million in cash and is almost free cash flow positive. PD is a Buy up to $40 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk:Digital operations management is a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.04) presented at the Roth Conference (ZOOM HERE and SLIDES HERE). It was their new corporate presentation, which now is very tight. Management pointed out that they grew revenues by 47% in 2021, kept operating expenses flat, and grew gross profit by 75%. They expect to grow at least that fast in 2022. Their pipeline of new opportunities has expanded to include tens of millions of dollars for 2022. Their recent very large display bridge purchase order was the first of many they expect this year due to the supply chain constraints others have.
What dramatically changed QUIK’s outlook was Australis, their intellectual property generator for embedded field-programmable gate array (eFPGA) design. They put their 30 years of FPGA design experience into an automated circuit design program. What used to take a team of hardware and software engineers a year or more to do now happens in a few month, and they are driving it down to a few weeks.
After many years of disappointment, QuickLogic is a new company. They are targeting breakeven by the end of this year.
QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $60 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Gold ($1,943.00) has been very volatile as commodities ripped, reversed, and have started ripping again. Too many got too excited at recent highs with several investment banks upgrading gold after having missed the “easy” part of the trade.
Right now, gold lacks a trend and remains stuck in a huge range. The fractal dimension is so fully consolidated it will take a breakout to new all-time highs to signify a new trend has started, and that trend is going to be huge. But gold will be the beneficiary of both fear and greed – nothing else has this dual motivation. The bull market is here, it is real, and it can’t be stopped.
Miners & Related
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $8.06) provided an asset update. The big one was Lundin Mining’s newly-discovered copper-gold mineralized system at the Chapada project in Brazil. Sandstorm has a copper stream agreement to purchase 4.2% of the copper produced at Chapada up to a maximum of 3.9 million pounds annually at a 70% discount to the current spot price.
A big reason I recommended Sandstorm is their ability to buy streams on projects that have the potential to dramatically expand resources and mine lives in the future. They are skilled at cherry-picking deals that potentially offer much larger payoffs than appear on the surface.
Yamana Gold also said they are considering alternative processing options to allow for economic extraction of substantial amounts of lower grade mineralization at the Cerro gold mine. Sandstorm has a silver stream agreement to purchase an amount of silver from Cerro Moro equal to 20% of the silver produced, up to a maximum of 1.2 million ounces of silver annually, again at a 70% discount to spot.
SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Square, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $40,791.95) is still bouncing around in the $37,500 to $42,500 area as risk-on alternates with risk-off. Bill Gross, the original Bond King and a long-time crypto critic, told CNBC: “I do think we need an alternative to the dollar as we’ve seen in the last week or two. There will be several survivors and I’m invested to a small extent in bitcoin.”
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. After an historic rout on Monday and Tuesday that erased $1.5 trillion in value, stocks in Hong Kong and China jumped the most since 2008 yesterday after China’s state council vowed to ensure stability in capital markets, support overseas stock listings, resolve risks around property developers, and complete the crackdown on Big Tech “as soon as possible.” Vice Premier Liu He said the government would introduce market-friendly policies developed in coordination with financial regulators. Yi Gang, governor of the People’s Bank of China, followed with a statement saying the central bank would help implement the policies, as did the banking watchdog.
I suspect Dictator-for-Life Xi Jinping realized that destroying the Chinese tech sector and bankrupting their billionaires isn’t the best way to make China strong. He’d like to have less income inequality, but he didn’t realize that meant everyone would be equally poor.
If I’m right, there are three immediate buy recommendations. EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $32.75) is a Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
Morgan Stanley China A-Share Closed-End Fund (CAF – $16.51) is a Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
KraneShares CSI China Internet Exchange-Traded Fund (KWEB – $28.49) does not hold the five American Depository Receipts identified by the SEC as not in compliance with the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. KraneShares already has converted the majority of their ADR holdings to the Hong Kong-listed counterparts, where available. They expect the portfolio to be comprised of solely Hong Kong listings by the end of the year, driven by continued US ADR conversion and re-listings in Hong Kong. I keep up with China events on their blog, China Last Night.
KWEB is a Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.46) reported December quarter revenues up 84% to $58.1 million. That brought them in at $188.9 million for the full year, up 65%, with a 51% gross profit margin. They had their fourth consecutive quarter of positive EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). Under GAAP accounting they lost 38¢ per share in the quarter compared to 36¢ last year. For the full year they lost 60¢, much better than lat year’s $2.92 loss.
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Peter Caldini said: “Over these last twelve months, we have built a solid foundation on which to scale our business in 2022. We will have a full year of operations in Ohio, California, and Maine, and we are very well established in New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, which have pending adult-use sales that should drive significant growth in 2022 and beyond.” (I don’t expect New York sales until 2023.)
The company ended the year with $44.3 million in cash and an unused credit line of $25 million now plus an additional $50 million in the future based on milestones. ACRDF is a buy under $4.49 for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Canopy Growth does not acquire the company.
Oil – $103.41
Oil settled at its highest price since 2008 on March 8 and the dropped over 20% in five trading days to cries of: “Bear market! Bear market!” before bottoming and reversing. India is going to buy Russian crude oil and other commodities at discounted prices through a rupee-ruble transaction. As I said, oil is fungible, and the Middle East barrels normally headed to India now will come to the US to take up the slack from sanctions.
The world is learning the hard way what happens when you demonize a commodity and cut it off from capital. You get a shortage. And if you decide to un-demonize it, you discover that the workers have moved on to other jobs, the necessary equipment and supplies are in short supply, and it’ll take quite some time to undo the damage. Meanwhile, $7 regular gas in the San Francisco Bay Area is a real possibility during the summer driving season.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.98) is a Buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $9.47) rose over 14% today but still is under my buy limit. Sprott’s Gold Talk podcast did an interesting segment on uranium. Remember, Energy Fuels is both uranium and rare earth metals in one neat package. UUUU is a buy under $11 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
* * * * *
At the exact point you’d expect another 50x increase in productivity because of computers, there was stagnation in the United States…
and in other developed countries…
* * * * *
Your betting Citicorp is in trouble Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $3.95) – Buy under $5, first target $10, then $50
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.15) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.09) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.98) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
CohBar (CWBR – $0.29) – Buy under $2, hold a long time
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $12.37) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $8.64) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $3.53) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $8.11) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.35) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $4.88) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.48) – Buy under $5, target $15 or $25
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $9.68) – Buy under $40, target price $80+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $37.70) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Meta (FB – $207.84) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $59.20) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.17) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $49.93) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $16.40) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $32.45) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.04) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.95) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $8.65) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $7.85) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $25.57 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $32.40) – Buy under $25, target price $50
ALPS Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $43.64) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $19.36) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $36.71) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.76) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $13.95) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.81) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $8.06) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $47.50) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $40,791.95) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $27.65) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,816.11) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $22.928) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $32.75) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $37.11 – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $16.51) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $28.49) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.46) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.42) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.98) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $9.47) – Buy under $11, $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.11) – Hold for CEO comment
Apple Computer (AAPL – $160.62) – Hold for 5G iPhones
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First!
Seconds
WOW , early RR.
ARTH- During those 15 months after approval but before certification TN never once explained what was really going on, leaving investors under the mistaken impression that product sales had actually begun while in reality nothing was happening. He never prepared a serious marketing plan as he thought he would receive a decent offer from a large Biopharma that never came. There was really never a plan B to all of this because as an MD/Investment Manager he had neither the experience nor the entrepreneurial skillset to actually getting a startup off the ground. With zero partners, zero sales and zero capital, plan B has since morphed into the “Terry Norchi Employment Act of 2015” or how to get as close as possible to SSA Full Benefits age at $35,000/month (without getting sued).
MM–these are sober realities. So Centurion is another distributor which won’t generate any more sales than Lovell. The entire ARTH management is worthless in marketing. 1000 more case studies won’t cut it, and are a poor substitute for marketing competence.
I agree with you that the holy grail of investing is to buy good companies that are not presently appreciated by the market. But NWI speculative biotechs have been almost all failures, mainly due to the tough odds of getting approvals, raising capital, and selling their products.
Softbank- Maybe this time Mr. Son the mega genius will blow up spectacularly due to all the cross holdings, the huge debts and the opaqueness of his accounting. For the moment just $25billion with the B in losses apparently.
Citigroup- MM, is this perhaps Russia exposure?
They went on the list in December, so it was something else.
UUUU and PD . Sweet day. Thanks MM.
@Michael Murphy. another outstanding Radar. Your initial comment about Saudi Arabia seems a number of machinations with Petro dollar king status are still in the cards as some talk has gotten about Russia economics problems(looking like a big bombing finale on the horizon deal with Ukraine) being bailed out by China with the latter on their eyes on Taiwan, which I think is a shiny object with the real target being a quid pro quo to a discounted piece of Russia’s oil and gas giving a Chinese open door move toward a king Petro dollar take down of the U.S. as stubborn U.S. production policy looks like a giveaway to the team of China with Russia junior partner.(Putin may not be there long)
Excuse the long post. I still think that kind of scenario may be food to feed our way out of the precious metal eternal whirlpool. JMHO.
Sorry, I didn’t understand your run on sentence. The post isn’t long, just the sentence. Do you mean Petro Yuan instead of Petro Dollar in the final part about China take down of the US?
@JGMD my run on 🙂 meant Petro Yuan. with minor partner ruble maybe.
Looking at that yellow metal again tonight.
“Big bombing finale on the horizon”. You actually may have a point; lots of armchair generals on the tube and online declaring “Ukraine has won” based on the numerous videos of small elements Russian tank patrols getting successfully ambushed by UAF troopers and territorial militias. That Russian tactic was the result of trying to avoid massive civilian casualties and giving Non-Azov type units the ability to surrender without losses. UAF cutoff units did not get the memo and appear willing to fight endlessly so the next couple of weeks will probably see a change in tactics with brutal bombardments of villages, small cities and UAF defensive positions followed by very large combined arms assaults order of magnitude bigger than what we have seen so far. Imho the large cities, Kyiv, Karkiyv and Odessa will be surrounded completely and forced to surrender rather than destroyed. The exception being Maryupol where the Azov battalion and related UAF units are bent to fight to the last man standing, like the Japanese at Okinawa, as they very well know that if captured they will be interrogated and then summarily executed.
“That Russian tactic was the result of trying to avoid massive civilian casualties” Oh really! Give me a break they are bombing hospitals and schools and apartment houses with no regard for human life. They are copying Hitlers tactics in WW2
Four years ago, Senate Foreign Relations Committee report:
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CPRT-115SPRT28110/html/CPRT-115SPRT28110.htm
PUTIN’S ASYMMETRIC ASSAULT ON DEMOCRACY IN RUSSIA AND EUROPE: IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY
See Appendix A, Details on Putin’s bombing of his own Russian citizens to engineer his rise to power, and to blame Chechen terrorists.
Best Crypto Exchanges:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierpaz/2022/03/16/the-best-global-crypto-exchanges/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=forbes-crypto&sh=3be52697742c
Note: The numbers in tables indicates “points”, which are positives.
Murphy should discuss crypto topics instead of ignorant political memes.
GRPH – I’m wondering if there’s something going on as I see it’s down over 10% and it broke another support level. It seems that the small development stage biotechs have all been shot with the YTD market weakness, which I would expect together with weakness of a ton of companies, so I’m not finding fault, just wondering if I missed something as I haven’t had time to keep up here and haven’t been active on the board for some time. Have a great day all!
Early stage biotechs have the most risk because of the toughest odds for success, more dilutions, more FDA politics. I have confidence only for ACXP, which has the best C Diff antibiotic candidate and will likely be bought out after the phase 2B. Even then, enrollment in this phase 2B won’t occur until later 2022, so there is time risk with no substantive news for a while.
No, nothing new or negative.
Does anyone know what is going on with AGNPF? As far as Schwab goes, the stock has not traded today and I can’t find any news. Thanks.
Fidelity shows 1712 traded, last @ 1:26 @ 4.12 + 0.083, bid 4.13, ask 4.23.
Thanks. Evidently the stock is very thinly traded with an average daily volume of around 15K shares. MM currently rates it a “hold”. I do not think the future bodes well for AGNPF.
‘As a canadian stock with US trading listing there were less than 2000 shares traded in three instances. One was about 3/4 of the total volume in perhaps three actual purchases at the same time but at perhaps three different prices.
This is kind of odd, sort of “house cleaning” rather than serious marketing trading.
I have no info on the Canadian trading prices and volumes.
AGNPF is a joke. Horrible financials. Total loser in the cannabis space. If you want to invest in weed stocks, start with the four major MSOs, who are all making ridiculous sales and earnings and have strong footholds in all the major US and Canada markets. Buy Curaleaf, Trulieve, CRESCO, Green Thumb, and Jushi as well. The best cannabis ETF is MSOS if you want a well diversified portfolio of multi-state operator cannabis stocks. Steer clear of AGNPF. GOING NOWHERE.
Marimed (MRMD) is another great IRA play. AFCG is the best weed REIT play. Yielding over 9%.
LOWLF another great penny stock weed play. Huge earnings growth and strong brand in CA market and expanding
Bad financials for Algernon also have resulted in small numbers of patients in all their trials. The covid trial was promising, but the larger proposed trial was shelved due to poor finances.
For weed, what do think of Acreage Holdings? I think you meant Acreage in your comment, but you confused symbols–Acreage is ACRDF, Algernon is AGNPF.
Yes, my apologies. I was referring to Acreage, not Algernon. It was a ticker typo. You should check out NICI, the National Institute of Cannabis Investors. Most comprehensive research platform for cannabis industry stocks. Very experienced, knowlwedgable seasone industry experts and analysts in the space. FYI, on their 1-5 rating scale, they rate Acreage a 2. I will send you all their Model Portfolio names shortly, all 4 and 5 rated companies.
Thanks.
They are about to list in the US
Good evening all before the Radar. Really liked that take away of the Russian LST and then some wounded That opens up a potential avenue
On my naïve yellow metal optimism, looks like Gold really held on tonight, war spending and debt providing a catalyst, it seems. GLTA
The new Radar Report for 3.24.22 is posted.