Dear New World Investor:
It’s Spring Break for my eighth-grader, so we headed to the Oregon coast for a few days, hoping the Cascadia tsunami would hold off until we got back. It did, and we came back to the same old, same old: the Fed is more hawkish, the Ukraine army is outperforming, Putin keeps surprising, sanctions aren’t working very well, stocks are down one day and up the next, and the bond market is in a historic and long-overdue rout.
After Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed needs to move “expeditiously” to combat high inflation and raised the possibility of 50-basis-point hikes instead of six more 25-basis-point hikes this year, the 10-year Treasury note yield shot up to 2.341% and the two-year yield went to 2.135%. The difference between them widened to 20.6 basis points, signaling a slightly lower risk of recession.
With institutional and AAII sentiment already showing extreme fear, the next-to-last buyers finally cratered: daytraders. These worthies hung tough during the selloff in January and February but are now taking money off the table.
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The buyers of last resort are the corporations doing stock buybacks, and they are now paused for three or four weeks until they report their March quarter earnings. So how did stocks navigate all this bad news?
The S&P 500 added 2.5% since last Thursday and is up 8.5% from its March 8 low. The Index has recouped all its losses since Russia invaded, but still is down 5.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 4.2% as tech stocks rallied but still is down 9.3% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose only 0.5% and is down 7.6% in 2022.
The fractal dimension is fully consolidated with enough energy to get to 4700 or so. Another strong week probably would put the fractals under 55, signifying a new uptrend has begun. Or we might see three weeks of thrashing around to build up even more energy, followed by a move to new highs.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
ATRS Antares Pharma – Tlando approval March 28
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat approval March 29
FB Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 477,310,240 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 418,522,763 have run their course. Of those, 412,392,027 recovered and 6,130,736 died – matching the last two week’s all-time low case fatality rate of 1.5%.
In the US, there have been 81,527,329 confirmed infections, of which 64,624,341 have run their course. Of those, 63,623,166 recovered and 1,001,175 died, an improved case fatality rate of 1.5%.
Daily cases are well under 30,000 as the virus burns itself out.
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Hospitalizations haven’t been this low since last July.
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Daily deaths haven’t been this low since last August.
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Almost 90% of the most-vulnerable over-65s are fully vaccinated.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Monday, March 28
SCYX – ScyNexis – 3:00pm – Maxim Group Growth Conference panel
ATRS – Antares – 5:00pm – Tlando PDUFA decision
Tuesday, March 29
SCYX – ScyNexis – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
CWBR – CohBar – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
AKBA – Akebia – 5:00pm – Vadadustat PDUFA decision
Wednesday, March 30
AG – First Majestic – Through 3/31 – 121 Mining Investment Conference
December quarter GDP – 8:30am – Third estimate
Friday, April 1
April Fool’s Day!
March payrolls – 8:30am – +450,000 expected (February was +678,000)
The Biotech MegaShift
The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Exchange-Traded Fund (IBB) looks like it finally bottomed two weeks ago. It bounced above its 50-day moving average last Friday and has been able to stay there this week. Next stop: Up 17% to the 200-day MA.
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Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $2.50) should get approval for vadadustat for dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease next Tuesday after the close. This is a big market and vadadustat is well-positioned for a strong launch.
I think the chances of an additional approval for non-dialysis-dependent CKD are less than 1-in-3, but if the FDA does allow that the stock will shoot up because that’s an even bigger market. AKBA is a Buy under $5 for a move to $15 if vadadustat is approved only for dialysis-dependent or $25 if it also is approved for non-dialysis.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved.
Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA filed
Probable time of next FDA approval: March 29, 2022
Probable time of next financing: June quarter of 2022
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $4.06) should get FDA approval of Tlando, their oral drug for testosterone deficiency, after the close on Monday. Their existing, experienced sales force will have Tlando and Xyosted, their painless testosterone autoinjector for home use, to compete with painful intramuscular injections requiring a doctor’s visit and messy gels. ATRS is a Strong Buy up to $5 for a $10 target price based on Xyosted and EpiPen sales, and $50 in three to five years, as they and their partners introduce numerous new products.
Primary Risk: Xyosted prescriptions stop growing or other products don’t sell well.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of first FDA approval: Approved
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.24) reported a December quarter GAAP loss of 27¢ versus last year’s -17¢ and the consensus for -16¢. On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Bill Rice said: “During Q4 of last year we reported five complete remissions and one partial remission from the 80mg dose expansion cohort of 239, and today we report a new complete remission has emerged in the ongoing 120mg dose expansion cohort. These data expand the list of AML genotypes responsive to the drug, potentially expanding our treatable population. We are currently enrolling patients at our 160 mg dose expansion and look forward to providing more details during the second quarter.”
After the 160mg dose-expansion cohort is completed, Aptose expects to select an optimal go-forward dose around mid-2022, and advance HM43239 into an expansion clinical program covering several acute myeloid leukemia genotypes as a single agent and in combination with existing therapies.
They want to move 239 forward rapidly using the accelerated approval pathway, but that means they have to identify the patients with high unmet medical needs. They’ve already done that – they see several populations that have that unmet medical needs. But because they also see activity in the larger FLT3 wild type and other populations, they are testing the drug in those patients in parallel so that they can expand the label later. That’s thinking ahead.
They are now evaluating the new G3 formulation of luxeptinib in humans and will have some data in the June quarter.
Bill Rice is developing drugs that not only work much better than existing blockbuster drugs but can get FDA approval. He works carefully and methodically, rather than throwing a Hail Mary pass on incomplete data. Wall Street hates that – they want speed. I love it – I want approved blockbuster drugs.
They finished the year with $79.1 million in cash, which can carry them into the December 2023 quarter – past many value-building data points. APTO is a Buy under $4 for a $45 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1a
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: late 2022 or early 2023
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $5.47) announced a December quarter loss of 35¢ per share, worse than the -26¢ expected. They said patient enrollment in the Phase 1/2 trial of GPH101 for sickle cell disease is ongoing at multiple sites, but due to a slowdown caused by the omicron variant, the dosing of their first patient now is planned for the second half of 2022 and initial proof-of-concept data in 2023. That is a six-month push out from last November’s expectation for a data readout by the end of 2022, and Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal Weight and cut their target price from $19 to $8. (The Street consensus is at $16.33.)
I recommended GRPH because they have a dramatically better, more powerful gene editing technology (SLIDES HERE).
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And they are not a one-trick pony. There’s a lot going on in addition to sickle cell:
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I just don’t care about a six-month delay when this company is likely to dominate gene editing. They just hired Alethia Young as Chief Financial Officer. She was the Senior Biotech Analyst and head of healthcare research at Cantor Fitzgerald and should be able to drum up some research coverage.
They finished the year with $378.7 million in cash, enough to carry them into the December 2024 quarter – plenty of time to get the sickle cell data.GRPH is a Steal Under $6 and a Buy all the way up to $26 for a $50 target in 2022, $100 in 2023, and then higher.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: 2023 or 2024
ScyNexis (SCYX – $4.86) reports December quarter results Tuesday morning. The consensus is expecting only $1.16 million in revenues with guidance for $2.04 million in the March quarter. There’s a good chance of an upside surprise. Buy SCYX under $24 for a first target price of $54 now that Brexafemme is approved and a buyout at $170.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
Probable time of next financing: 2023 or never
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $174.07) launched the first driver’s license and state ID in the iPhone Wallet with Arizona. There are additional states to follow, including Colorado, Hawaii, Mississippi, Ohio, and the territory of Puerto Rico.
The very experienced Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said Apple is seeing “stellar” iPhone 13 demand globally and an “elongated product cycle.” He expects the momentum will provide a good set-up for the launch of the iPhone 14 this fall, and said: “We believe the company is setting up for a monster growth cycle over the next 12 to 18 months that is not baked into shares at current levels.” He rates Apple stock as Outperform with a 12-month target price of $200. AAPL is a Hold for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.54) sold the Vision Fund 1’s stake in the self-driving startup Cruise LLC to General Motors for $2.1 billion. SFTBY is a Buy under $30 for a first target of $60 in the next two years.
Other Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $17.60) was named a March 2022 Gartner Peer Insights Customers’ Choice for Web Application and API Protection for the fourth consecutive year. Verified enterprise IT professionals who have purchased, implemented, and used a Web Application Firewall gave Fastly Next-Gen WAF an average of 4.9 out of 5.0 stars. FSLY is a Buy up to $45 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $150+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $8.64) won a contract to launch three demonstration satellites for E-Space, to validate the systems and technology for its satellite system. The satellites are scheduled to fly as part of an Electron rideshare mission in the June quarter.
E-Space wants to reduce the launch requirements for a full constellation to months instead of years — decreasing the time it takes to scale, replenish or deliver a full system. E-Space’s system will allow governments and companies to own private satellite constellations that can dynamically scale in capabilities, with applications ranging from secure communications to managing remote infrastructure, while maintaining a high level of security, flexibility, and resiliency. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk:A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Gold ($1,962.50) rallied to a one-week high as a safe haven against inflation and uncertainty over the Ukraine war, even though the Fed is talking tougher and the US dollar has been strong. Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose to the highest level since February 2021. Gold still has so much fractal energy that this may be the Big One – a new record high followed by a move towards $2,500.
Miners & Related
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.79) closed the sale of its La Preciosa silver project to Avino Silver & Gold Mines (ASM) for:
* * $15.3 million in cash paid at the closing
* * A $5.0 million note that matures in 12 months
* * 14.0 million units of one share of ASM common stock and a warrant for one half of one common share
* * Deferred cash consideration of $8.8 million to be paid no later than the first anniversary of initial production from any portion of the La Preciosa project
* * Contingent payments of 25¢ per silver equivalent ounce on any new mineral reserves discovered and declared outside of the current resource area at the La Preciosa project, up to a maximum payment of $50.0 million
* * Two royalties covering the La Preciosa land package, including (i) a 1.25% net smelter returns royalty on properties covering the Gloria and Abundancia areas of the La Preciosa project and (ii) a 2.00% gross value royalty on all areas of the La Preciosa project other than the Gloria and Abundancia areas, offset by the amount of any new mineral reserve contingent payments made to Coeur
* * The right to appoint one director to Avino’s Board of Directors
Well done! Coeur’s strategy is to monetize non-core assets and prioritize high-return growth from investments in exploration and expansions at its North American assets, including the Rochester Mine expansion in Nevada that is expected to be completed mid-2023. CDE is a Buy under $10 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
First Majestic (AG – $13.92) received regulatory consent to extend its stock buyback program to up to 10 million shares, or 3.8% of the outstanding, over the next 12 months. AG is a Buy under $15 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Square, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $44,026.57) staged a stealth rally either with the stock market (risk on) or gold (safe haven) or both. Ray Dalio, a long-time bitcoin skeptic, said his $150 billion Bridgewater Associates hedge fund now wants to increase its exposure to digital assets, although it will not be buying cryptocurrencies directly.
Cowen started a digital asset unit offering institutional clients access to spot cryptocurrency trading, which puts it at the front of Wall Street’s push into crypto. Cowen Digital will allow clients to trade 16 cryptocurrencies including bitcoin, ethereum, and Solana. They are targeting Cowen’s hedge fund, mutual fund, and family office clients, and also will provide custody of the assets through Standard Custody & Trust Co. Many more brokerage firms will follow, and this may be all that’s needed to push bitcoin to $100,000 (although SEC approval of a spot bitcoin ETF sure will help).
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China.
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.56) renewed its stock buyback program for up to 1,935,000 shares, or 6.97% of the outstanding and 9.99% of the public float. Kuppy will make money for us any way he can. MNGGF is a buy under $1.25 for a long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Harris Kupperman makes bad investments.
Oil – $111.42
My trip to the Oregon coast was notable for lots of traffic, lots of RVs, and $6 a gallon gas that was not destroying demand. Nationwide:
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Say you only get 15 miles per gallon pulling your travel trailer, and it’s a 300-mile round trip to take the kids camping at your favorite lake. Last year, gas for that trip cost $57.60. This year it costs $84.80. Are you not going to take that vacation because it costs an extra $27.20? Give me a break.
Oil prices jumped 5% to over $121 a barrel on Wednesday as disruptions to Russian and Kazakh crude exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline added to worries over tight global supplies. The CPC pipeline is a significant supply line for global markets, carrying around 1.2 million barrels per day of Kazakhstan’s main crude grade, or 1.2% of global demand.
Markets also rallied on news that a major Black Sea oil export terminal halted loadings and faces weeks of disruption. Exports could be curtailed by one million barrels a day, further depriving the European market.
Further bullish signals came as US crude stockpiles fell 2.51 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Analysts expected crude inventories to rise by 144,000 barrels.
And weekly consumption far exceeded market estimates. Gasoline inventories fell 2.95 million barrels, adding to the 3.62 million run down in the prior week. Analysts had forecast gasoline consumption of 1.99 million barrels. Automobile fuel gasoline, America’s most-consumed oil product, has now seen drawdowns for seven straight weeks.
Ed Moya, a senior market analyst at forex broker Oanda, said: “The energy market is looking at the short-term situation and medium-term situation and it’s bleak. You’re looking at an elevated chance here of big swings higher and that the recent highs of $130 for WTI probably will prove not to be too hard to break.”
Meanwhile, millions of barrels of Russian oil are still finding a way to buyers almost a month after the country first invaded Ukraine. India’s oil refiners grabbed multiple cargoes of Russia’s flagship Urals crude this month, supplanting the Middle Eastern varieties they normally purchase from Abu Dhabi and Iraq. China’s private processors are still targeting their favored cargoes from the east of Russia.
Bears on oil are warning that if President Biden signs an Iran deal, they will increase production enough to knock oil prices down. But Iran already is pumping and selling oil on the black market, regardless of the toothless US sanctions. Much higher prices are coming.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $34.85) is a Buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
Energy Focus (UUUU – $10.17) is still trading under my buy limit. Get it while you can. UUUU is a buy under $11 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
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Your watching my cousin on Monday night Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $4.06) – Buy under $5, first target $10, then $50
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.245) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.10) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.28) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
CohBar (CWBR – $0.34) – Buy under $2, hold a long time
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $13.16) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $5.47) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $3.76) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $8.23) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.35) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $4.86) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $2.50) – Buy under $5, target $15 or $25
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $10.33) – Buy under $40, target price $80+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $38.35) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Meta (FB – $219.57) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $59.14) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.54) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $53.03) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $17.60) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $36.50) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.29) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.94) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $8.64) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $8.98) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $25.85 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $33.13) – Buy under $25, target price $50
ALPS Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $44.40) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $19.69) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $37.30) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.79) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $13.92) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.81) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $8.18) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $50.72) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $44,026.57) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $30.51) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,110.57) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $26.16) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $34.06) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $37.26 – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $16.50) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $30.48) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.53) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.56) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $34.85) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $10.17) – Buy under $11, $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.05) – Hold for CEO comment
Apple Computer (AAPL – $174.07) – Hold for 5G iPhones
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New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
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1st in a long time…
2nd
Oil is going to collapse. Get ready. How in the world do you have a teenager? Aren’t you close to 80?
If just one of the refineries in California goes off line for maintenance or whatever reason the price of gas will shoot up $2.00 a gallon. Also Chevron is pushing the White House to lift sanctions on Venezuelan oil fields. Claiming they can double production out of there. And the seasonal ramp up of demand for gas is starting with spring break. Gas is already over $4.00 a gallon average nationwide. Even if the Russians pull back from Ukraine tomorrow, the drawdown will take months to correct itself. California Santa Clause governor is jointing the White House in giving away more taxpayer money. Up to $800 per family (with 2 registered vehicles) for gas rewards. Even to those folks who own electric vehicles and the rich who don’t need it. I think the pandemic has rendered all of our leaders insane. Just IMO
Why the hell would anyone live in California, between the constant threat of the “big one”, more homeless encapments than Ukraine, and the most screwed up economy thanks to their off the rails liberal government – they have trashed a once most desirable state
Amen. Lived there for 40 years. Never again. CA is toast. Been systematically destroyed. Thanks Gavin, Nancy, Kameltoe, et al.
So where do you live?
Moved back east where I grew up. Now live in Stamford, CT. Near my brother, sister and closest childhood friends. Loving it, although I do miss the CA weather, but not much else. Went through an ugly divorce that lasted 9 years. Was married for 29 years t my college sweetheart at Stanford. Needed a change of scenery so I decided to move back east to where I grew up.
Lots of folks leaving California (MM for one) and long term ones as well. My new neighbor came from there after living there for years. Plus several people I worked with came from there. I saw a bumper sticker on an Oregon car not to long ago that said “Don’t Californicate Oregon!!
As of 2020, CA had 160,000 homeless, and 3.9 million population. So one half of one percent of the CA population is homeless.
Ukraine has 3.7 million refugees who have left the country so far, and 6.5 million have been displaced by Putin’s brutal invasion to “rebuild the Russian empire” and cement his place in history with no regards to the massive suffering he’s inflicting on innocent people and the world.
So Ukraine has more homeless than CA has population. Staggering. Ukraine had a population of 44 million in 2020, so over 8% left the country, and almost 15% displaced. Compared to under 1% homeless in CA. Apparently you are one of the people Murphy says “can’t do math.” But I guess you can read, and repeat hateful disinformation, which is what Putin wants to see here.
If you are so concerned about homeless people, then donate to Ukraine here via UNICEF:
https://www.unicefusa.org/stories/unicef-children-are-bearing-brunt-intensifying-crisis-ukraine/39481?form=FUNKBHMZQDQ&utm_content=Ukraine3&ms=cpc_dig_2021_Ukraine3_20210801_google_Ukraine3_delve_None&initialms=cpc_dig_2020_Ukraine3_20210801_google_Ukraine3_delve_None&gclid=Cj0KCQjw0PWRBhDKARIsAPKHFGhXAd1VUsUEMxPB9SZ-7OvHoSVRcEJBi3xjLYd_LQag1l6OG4rAd5IaAimIEALw_wcB
If you are so concerned about not just homeless, but those suffering from injuries and disease from Putin’s war, donate here:
https://donate.doctorswithoutborders.org/secure/monthly?ms=ADD2202U2U75&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=BRAND.DWB_CKMSF-BRAND.DWB-GS-GS-ALL-Ukraine.All-BO-ALL-RSA-DWB.U2-MONTHLY&gclid=Cj0KCQjw0PWRBhDKARIsAPKHFGiswf3QVVwbCmB9DSShRI99TRBXonWiqYNM-ZN47kU9NZHANLCEA70aAqRtEALw_wcB
Have you ever even visited CA?? What state do you live in? I lived eight years in CA (near UCLA, at nearby Santa Monica beach, near Pasadena/Caltech/NASA JPL, and in Silicon Valley).
You say “the most screwed up economy.” If CA were a country, it would be the fifth largest economy in the world. Care to explain your statement? Silicon Valley has been the worldwide driver of technological innovation, and at one point had something like one third of all the software engineers in the world. I was amazed when I worked there, that walking around Sunnyvale, you would see so many names of top tech companies, one after another, right there.
My favorite National Park is Yosemite. The Sierras “gentle wilderness” is a fantastic place to backpack and climb, including Mt Whitney, the highest point in the continental US. Not far away is Death Valley National Park, the lowest point in North American, and has lots of amazing geologic sites. CA has the most national parks of any state in the US. Not to mention other places of natural wonder worth visiting. San Francisco is one of the most popular cities in the US. Great place to live, so many things to see and do.
Yeah CA is earthquake country. I experienced two quakes there. One of my friends lives in N Cal wildfire country, and had to cut down a lot of trees and install a system to douse his house in case of wildfire. He was offered a great academic job in Kansas but didn’t want to spend his life in boring KS vs. CA. Another friend had two properties in FL and NJ, one demolished from Hurricane Michael, the other flooded out in Hurricane Sandy. Most places you have some natural disaster that can occur. No hurricanes in CA. No tornados in CA. No long, overcast skies and bitter cold winters in CA. No sweltering humidity and heat in CA like the Deep South. Pick your poison. Where do you live?
Correction 160,000 homeless as of 2020, 39.5 population as of 2019. About one half of one percent.
Who knows how many will eventually have their homes bombed out in Ukraine. Or for that matter, with Putin’s control of a nuclear arsenal, the numbers so far could be a small percentage of the eventual deaths and destruction.
This is Putin’s fault. Blaming the west for Putin’s war is Putin’s argument.
I heard that states like Arizona give their homeless people one way tickets to Los Angeles. California is one state that really tries to help the homeless that is why so many come there and of course the weather is another factor.
There was a time that CA. was a great place to visit, live, work. Now it is a place to move to Texas from.
I am 7th generation San Franciscan, 8th generation Californian. Most of SF are from somewhere else. Chu Mass, Taiwan. Kamala attended high school in Canada. Pelosi Baltimore. Our mayor is s complete unknown person. Our city has supervisors from Chicago, East Coast, and Texas. The homeless either moved, or dumped on San Francisco citizens to take care of. Maybe you crybabies should help take care of the homeless where you live! San Francisco was a fun City. Now I am surrounded by cannot do people. I hate to say this. Some of our politicians are very bad people. Maybe even evil: help people take drugs, wipe out the children population. The last number I can remember is 115,000. Poor education alternative for the masses. How can a city survive.
SCYX–follow the weekly script numbers on YMB from steelerdude. Flat for the last many weeks. Doctors are not so impressed, just as I have been saying for a long time. Long wait for approval for serious hospital infections. MM, you are way too optimistic with your target prices.
Same overoptimism for AKBA. Approval will see a spike to double the current price, maybe $5. We’ll see.
And NOT getting the FDA approval will cause the stock to drop by minimum 50%. Lot of risk here. JP Morgan is very negative on this stock and the efficacy of their drug vs. the side effects. Caution advised.
Right. A while ago I showed the slight imbalance in baseline CV risk in one of the trials. The company never addressed this. I have only a small position due to this.
My ATRS position is up 82 percent. Thanks MM. I am loving it so much I bought some more today @$4.11.
To compare Cuba with Ukraine is ridiculous Ukraine had no atomic weapons pointing toward Russia like Cuba had.
In fact just the opposite Ukraine has given up their nuclear weapons
The USA ddid not invade Cuba like Russia has we allowed Cuba to choose Communism even though it is on our Border.
Although the Professor did not get into this very much I agree our invading Iraq was a very unwise and morally wrong thing to do.
Pres. Biden is not George Bush as the Professor would like us to believe. “Twittle Dee and tweedle dum” Biden got us out of that war that Pres. Bush put us into.
Sorry, but we sponsored an invasion. In Philadelphia
the US bombers at the airport had their bomb-bays
closed – a sure sign that Nukes are loaded!
Yes, the Russian Nukes were mostly there. When they broker
removing them was a part of the requirements. Note that
they have been a thriving place of technology (for US firms), important exports from minerals to food and from the shots
we once saw a better looking place than many places here.
The nukes there were RUSSIAN and aimed not at them, but at US.
Reason – better targetong. Removal of them was demanded by newly Ukraine as part of their start as a free country (again).
Russians hauled them away to elsewhere in their vast spaces
or perhaps merely made new ones from the scrap. Note that later, some of the workers sold parts and services to places like Egypt.
Why? because they were starving as paychecks had stopped in Russia.
VLD … Ms Wood has been loading up. Word is that SpaceX is sniffing around.
Is there an IPO in the offing or at least a stock symbol, thinking of going the Robinhood track if that’s true?
VLD
Information works on any site – not just Robinhood. I always look new ideas at many sources – any good broker, the company itself (All firm sites are not always wonderful – others are good at telling you what the company does and more.
As I remember it, Robinhood was a place for partial share transactions = a few bucks. You might want to check there to see
what their current offerings are – especially if you are looking to but
multiples.
Anybody here that can update dealing there?
SCYX down 17%!
All I see is good news.
What am I missing?
I’m hoping for some insight into SCYX. Also I see that NVTA and TGTX are up a lot today. I assume it’s just from being fairly hard hit generally and being up with positive sentiment on peace talks.
@SheldonBK NVTA and TGTX are both bargains, IMHO. The announcement by NVTA of its digital health data base, especially the cancer piece is very attractive. One of my sons is an oncologist and uses a competitor. He is reviewing this news. The software and effectiveness data are remarkable.
(1) Weak Sales of ~0.5M/quarter [2M/year]. Although its early days, this seems like a slow and disappointing launch. For market caps of 4x-6x annual sales, SCYX’s approximate 100M market cap would conservatively need about $2M/month [~$25M/year sales].
(2) They’re burning about $100M/year, so they’ll need to raise at least that much by 2023Q1, which would suggest ~25M shares (and probably as many warrants as an inducement) at $4/share+warrant. This would bring their total share count to about 50M shares and 40M warrants [with exercise prices between $4 and ~$8(?)]. Would they have to do this yet again by 2024Q1?
(3) Their pipeline is good in principle, but they need to fund everything until some sort of meaningful funding partnership happens and/or significant, durable sales develop.
I’m disappointed but not surprised.
“Duration” is one example. Right now, what is your “duration”,when you will dump that stock.
Your opinion is different than that famous Lady on Wall Street who might think “holding duration” is measured by days, whereas mine is at least a long term capital gain or longer.
Any chance your dear wife wants a bigger house for the four kids in a better school district, while yours is for a bigger boat?
Guess news on Akebia FDA decision any moment..
MM and others – in the past you talked about an anti-aging products. What do you think about Chromadex, the company focused on dietary supplements for healthy aging; specifically using nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide, or NAD. They are launching new products, and recently had positive study results on NAD, 4 analysts give it an $11 price target from current $2.50.
Forget about Chromadex. I tried their nicotinamide riboside (precursor of NAD) product. After mild initial improvement in energy, the benefits were soon lost. There is NO single magic bullet. Age management is complicated, and many factors are at play, obviously. Ignore all the hype from companies and their paid “analysts.”
AKBA is the latest in the continuing saga of NWI biotech disasters. It takes a committee of medical experts to understand potential benefits of any company’s products. Even then, trying to beat the capricious and political FDA is a bad investment strategy. I wrote several times about my reservations about the baseline characteristics of the patients in the trials, which were not answered by the company.
AKBA what happened – its sinking
Not approved,another loser
A loser for past 8 Years!!!
Yet,they recieved rejection letter yesterday 14 million shares traded today before the halt ,I guess family members were able to sell…to idiots like myself
Thank you MM more huge losses – Dragonwave – Towerstream – Airspan i need not go on – just brutal!!
I know losses like on AKBA are painful but I think it’s important to keep MM’s caveats in mind. Invest only speculative money and expect very few of these small biotech positions to pay off. I expect most to go bankrupt or major losses like this giving us a chance to get out with $0.80 if there’s nothing left in AKBA to put that at risk. The $0.80 doesn’t mean much so I’ll wait for MM for guidance whether it’s worth taking it off the table. I also use general trading practices learned elsewhere. Sell half on a double. I just buy 50% or less initially and accumulate on either weakness or a strong technical indicator (which typically happens higher). We all know the risks of investing in small development stage biotechs.
Perhaps lessons like this are teaching some that they’re not comfortable with these risks. That’s ok too, just learn from it and move on. Pointing fingers at a service we all paid for based on MM’s tremendous experience isn’t a good use of anyone’s energy.
Trajedy -Only hope it makes a come back like ARNA some day
No–I contribute my medical expertise as counterpoint to MM’s pie-in-the-sky projections. Even I am not an expert in certain specialized medical fields. Operating NWI on a shoestring without a team of medical experts is a losing endeavor for the speculative bios here. I care about other subscribers’ financial pain. Even if individual bio positions are a small % of your portfolio, add up nearly all the NWI bios and you have a big disastrous loss.
This post is not snark–it is factual reality.
100% agreed. Almost every MM spec bio pick has been a complete cluster f—-. Lost my shirt and haven’t bought a single one since. It all started with Dendreon (DNDN) where MM had a $360 target price for over a year. We saw how that turned out.
For those of you who lost out on AKBA, check out Ardelyx (ARDX). Similar in a way to AKBA, but they also have an approved product that is launching next quarter. They also got screwed by the FDA on a kidney drug that they have as well.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3808440-ardx-stock-rises-on-jefferies-upgrade
Doyle, so what’s the catalyst that will drive ARDX price near term, if its the launch then it will take several quarters for it to show success
Sorry for the delay. They have a bunch of things coming up in addition to the product launch.
MM – is there sense in buying AKBA now below $.90 for the EU approval possibility?
The AKBA complete response letter for vadadustat even for dialysis patients is a real shock, especially because it already is approved in Japan, which has the reputation of being tougher than the FDA on safety.
The CRL cited an “increased risk of thromboembolic events, driven by vascular access thrombosis in dialysis patients, and the risk of drug-induced liver injury.” I haven’t seen any evidence of either. The conference call is at 6:00pm ET today.
No shock to me, as I posted a few times. I picked up the imbalance in the baseline CV risks of the treatment and placebo groups in the dialysis trial. You missed it, and were just a cheerleader for the company. You did pose my concern to them, but they didn’t answer. But you didn’t change your wildly bullish target of $15 just for dialysis.
If you didn’t see any evidence of drug-induced liver injury, and increased vascular access thrombosis in the treatment group, that should tip you off to the real risk of biotech investing–we cannot trust companies to reveal significant info to investors. In view of the disastrous losses in most of the NWI bios, I advise you to abandon any future recommendations in this area. Stick to your original expertise outside of spec bios. Don’t waste more time researching spec bios.
so JGMD you seem to have a solid understanding of spec bios, any recommendations to help us all recoup our losses?
I wish I could promote financial health. But I can promote physical health, which is more important. Lots of advances via Quicksilver Scientific’s (QS) products and insights. NAD is an important PIECE of the puzzle, but it is only part of a comprehensive strategy for age management and toxicity which sabotages everything. QS has SOTA liposomal technology to enhance utilization of many substances, and the NAD Gold or Platinum products use nicotinamide mono nucleotide (NMN) which is a more direct precursor of NAD than nicotinamide ribosome (NR) from Chromadex which is not liposomal.
More generally, all pharma companies have single products which do ONE important thing, such as BP drugs. Sometimes a drug has more than one action, such as statin drugs which lower cholesterol and reduce vascular inflammation. Even this is not as effective as overall lifestyle optimization (in plain English, get slim, stop smoking, alcohol, sugar, etc.) with additional attention to investigating root causes. Big Pharma or any pharma is NOT interested in cures, only keeping people on drugs long term to make the most money.
OK, I have the most confidence, or the least distrust, of ACXP, Acurx of the bios I follow. For this pick, credit goes to subscriber Chris, who has the best judgment of any investor here. But even Chris bombed on his early endorsement of Algernon. ACXP has the best data on their drug for C diff, a severe problem in hospitals. There is time risk, because it will take at least 6 months to enroll and get results on their larger phase 2B trial. The major risk here is FDA sabotage by Big Pharma who has inferior drugs which are well established. This is a common problem when political entities can control a market, which should be free.
Actually, NOBODY has a solid understanding of spec bios. There are plenty of smart asses who think they do, but they are all shown to make fools of themselves. All doctors have a primitive understanding of the human body–when trials fail, nobody understands why. Then add in political corruption from FDA MD’s who think they know best but in reality are also ignorant of biological science, and you come away with the realization that nobody should be investing serious money in 99% of small bios. The most productive thing bio advisors can do is to write novels of science fiction which offer only entertainment value.
Couldn’t agree more. Here’s some proof in the pudding regarding MM’s spec bio picks track record:
ARTH – MM targets = $2 then $7. Now $0.10, down 50% last 6mo
APTO – MM target $45. Now $1.31, down 52% last 6mo
BLPH – MM targets = $30/$300. Now $2.43, down 41% last 6mo
INO – MM buy <$21 LT hold. Now $3.64, down 51% last 6mo
GRPH – MM buy < $26. Now $5.23, down 65% last 6mo, 52wk low
MDNA – MM targets $40/$80. Now $1.33, down 50% last 6mo
NVTA – MM targets $100/$200. Now $8.40, down 70% last 6mo
SCYX – MM targets $54/$170. Now $4, down 50% last 6mo
You MM devotees who are going to call me a “whiner”, don’t bother. These are real numbers that have had a significant if not devastatingly harmful impact on the financial condition of a lot of people who follow these recs, including me. Pathetic track record to say the least. And for me, it all started with MM’s Dendreon (DNDN) rec years ago, when he put a persistent long term $360+ target on a sham company that went bankrupt. Google it and read the numerous articles on it. Steer clear of spec bio recs!!
I actually took profits twice on DNDN, never getting back in for the final plunge to zero. To utilize NWI spec bio names, you must wait until there is blood in the streets, sell when things are less bad. Now may be a time to buy AKBA, for a target of $2-3 if Otsuka buys AKBA. Even that is a rank speculation.
Unlike DNDN, I didn’t take the 6-fold gains I had on APTO from buy price of $1.50. I am now down by 20%, stupid me. Buy and hold is appropriate only for high quality blue chips.
Agreed
@Michael Murphy and all, on a day when TPL is down $61.00/share, this stock has done very well for me, even though there are only 7.8 million shares outstanding, thought you might like to evaluate it from your own perspective. My basis with TPL is about $52/share and it’s really done well for me. New company structure since trust days, now to C-Corp.
How Rising Oil Prices Turned This Texas Scrubland Into an Energy Stock Worth Fighting – Daily Energy News | Daily Industry Magazine
The new Radar Report for 3.31.22 is posted.