Dear New World Investor:
Earnings season is underway. There are always high-profile misses – looking at you, Netflix – but the key is that overall estimates keep on being revised up. Since the beginning of this earnings season, March quarter S&P 500 earnings have been revised up 2.1% to $52.29 (+6% year-over-year) and full-year 2022 earnings have been revised up 0.3% to $227.98 (+10% year-over-year). The consensus for 2023 is even higher.
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In spite of today’s broad rally, the S&P 500 lost 2.4% since last Thursday and is down 10% year-to-date in correction territory. A 10% selloff is just “stocks on sale” if you’re willing to wait a bit. Since 1950, not one S&P 500 drop of 10% to 20% has taken more than nine months to recover and reach new highs. Not one.
Since 2013, every time the S&P 500 went negative year-over-year the Fed either stopped tightening or began loosening. We are now there and the midterm elections are coming. Will the Fed risk a recession and a bear market? That’s not the way to bet.
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The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.3%, mostly due to Tuesday’s worst session since September 2020. It is down 17.7% for the year. All the members of the FAAMG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google) complex, as well as Tesla and Netflix, are down more than 10% year to date. Tesla has dropped 18% in April alone and Netflix is down a whopping 68% year-to-date.
The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 3.7% and is down 14.6% in 2022.
The seasonal pattern in midterm election years is very different from a normal year and could make the “sell in May and go away” folks right for a change.
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But one difference this year is that President Biden’s very low approval rating probably means the Administration will pull out all the stops to make things look better before the election. The recent trial balloon about possibly canceling all student debt is one example of that. On the other hand, unless the Fed backs off – see above – or the Ukraine War ends, there are some major headwinds still facing the markets.
The fractal dimension is showing the last three week’s action as a consolidation of the strong rally in the two weeks before that. Another down week will tip the fractal dimension towards the 55 level that signals a real trend, but for now all this sturm und drang, painful as it is, isn’t signifying much.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
FB Meta – Further bounce from overdone selloff
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
Economy
March quarter real GDP fell at a 1.4% annual rate, worse than even the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate.
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I knew it would be a weak number as the inventory accumulation in the December quarter started to unwind. But I was surprised that inventory liquidation only accounted for 0.84 percentage points. Perhaps people want to have higher inventories during the supply chain disruptions, or perhaps they have to carry more work in progress because they are missing some critical parts to complete things.
Either way, the main shortfall was in consumer spending, which rose 2.7% in the March quarter compared to the 3.5% increase expected. That does not bode well for the June quarter. I expect it to be up, though, so we won’t get the “two negative quarters in a row” that the newsreaders think automatically means “recession.”
Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 511,957,451 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 472,006,251 have run their course. Of those, 465,750,931 recovered and 6,255,320 died – the second week in a row at the new low case fatality rate of 1.3%.
In the US, there have been 82,914,252 confirmed infections, of which 81,613,894 have run their course. Of those, 80,594,035 recovered and 1,019,859 died, a new low case fatality rate of 1.2%.
Now that Dr. Fauci has said the pandemic is over, I’m dropping the new daily cases and vaccination charts. We’ll keep following hospitalizations and deaths for a while.
Hospitalizations have ticked up slightly from 9,909 to 10,803, still a low level.
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Daily deaths continue to fall, now at 300
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Monday, May 2
MDNA – Medicenna – 3:00pm – Bloom Burton Healthcare Investor Conference
Tuesday, May 3
NVTA – Invitae – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
Wednesday, May 4
Fed meeting – 2:00pm
CDE – Coeur Mining – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
FSLY – Fastly – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, May 5
CDE – Coeur Mining – 11:00am – Earnings conference call
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
Friday, May 6
April payrolls – 8:30am – +400,000 expected
LSXMA – Liberty Media – 10:00am – Earnings conference call for parent of LMACA
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Money continues to pour into biotech, which is going to be the most important industry of the 2020s.
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Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $3.62) said that NP-251 (Repirinast), its lead chronic kidney disease drug, reduced fibrosis by 56% with statistical significance in a preclinical study investigating non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in a mouse model. They earlier reported that it also reduced fibrosis by 51% in a preclinical animal study of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. They will advance it to a Phase 1 safety study. AGNPF is a Hold.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $5.56) has not gotten a higher takeover bid, so I put out a Flash Alert on Monday saying it is time to Sell ATRS.
Invitae (NVTA – $5.22) reports March quarter results next Tuesday after the close. The consensus is expecting $128.13 million in sales and a 76¢ loss. Guidance for the June quarter is expected to be $153.55 million and a 75¢ loss. Buy NVTA under $50 for a first target of $100 and eventually $200+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.58) presented new data at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases on ibrexafungerp’s potential to fight invasive candidiasis and candidemia, including infections caused by candida auris. These are the hospital-setting use cases that will turn ScyNexis into a very large company.
A new interim analysis of the Phase 3 CARES study showed complete or partial response in 14 or 78% of the 18 patients treated with ibrexafungerp for infections caused by Candida auris, a deadly and multidrug-resistant pathogen that no other antifungal can stop. It has been designated as an “urgent threat” by the CDC. C. Auris infections have a high mortality rate – more than one in three patients can die.
Recent interim data of 49 patients in the ongoing Phase 3 FURI (39) and CARES (10) trials of patients with invasive candidiasis and candidemia treated with ibrexafungerp is positive and consistent with previous analyses. Thirty-three (68%) had a complete or partial response; seven (14%) had stable disease; three (6%) showed disease progression; four (8%) were indeterminate; and two (4%) died from progression of an underlying disease.
New in vivo mouse data supports ibrexafungerp as a potential treatment for mucormycosis, a debilitating and sometimes deadly fungal infection that has seen an increase in cases globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. Buy SCYX under $24 for a first target price of $54 now that Brexafemme is approved and a buyout at $170.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
Probable time of next financing: 2023 or never
Biotech MegaShift
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $6.71) gave a very useful presentation at the B. Riley Neuro & Ophthalmology Conference this morning (ZOOM HERE). They’ve laid off their entire oncology sales force to focus on their multiple sclerosis approval on September 28, five months from today. They have a superior treatment with shorter infusion times and expect to price it to be very attractive to the payers. They have plenty of cash to get well into 2023. Buy TGTX under $7 for a target price in a buyout of $25 or more.
Primary Risk: FDA turns the MS drug down.
Clinical stage of lead product: Filed for approval.
Probable time of next FDA approval: September 28, 2022
Probable time of next financing: December 2022 quarter
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $163.64) reported good March quarter results after the close today. Revenues grew 8.6% from last year to $97.3 billion, beating the consensus estimate for $94.0 billion. They did $1.52 a share, nicely ahead of the $1.43 estimate.
In a quarter that could have been hurt by supply chain woes or postponed demand due to China’s virus lockdowns, iPhone sales grew 5.6% to $50.57 billion, showing strong demand for the iPhone 13. Services hit $19.8 billion as subscribers grew 25% from last year to 825 million, up from 785 million in the December quarter.
The company raised its quarterly dividend a penny to 23¢ a share and added a whopping $90 billion to its stock buyback program. On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), they said the China lockdowns will hurt June quarter revenues by $4 billion to $8 billion, but some of that could be recaptured later this year. CEO Tim Cook said there is “some reason for optimism” that the situation may not be as bad as feared, because factories have opened and production is ramping up again. AAPL is a Hold for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Corning (GLW – $36.40) reported March quarter revenues up 11.9% from last year to $3.68 billion, just ahead of the $3.53 billion consensus estimate. Optical Communications sales grew 28% from last year to $1.2 billion. Display Technologies benefited from favorable pricing and was up 11% to $959 million. Specialty Materials grew 9% to $493 million. Environmental Technologies revenues fell 7% from last year to $409 million due to to auto producers’ component shortages. Life Sciences was up 3% to $310 million.
Pro forma earnings of 54¢ a share beat the 49¢ estimate. On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they guided the June quarter to $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion in sales with 54¢ to 59¢ per share, both just above the $3.69 billion and 55¢ consensus estimate.
They also raised their full-year 2022 revenue estimate to exceed $15 billion, with sales growing at a high-single-digit percentage and earnings per share growing up to a few percentage points faster than sales. The consensus revenue estimate was $15.04 billion.
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GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My first target is $60 in 2022.
Meta Platforms (FB – $205.73) reported a March quarter revenue miss, but the stock shot up 17.6% today anyway on their plans to cut spending. Revenues grew 6.6% from last year to $27.9 billion, just under the $28.24 billion expected. But $2.72 earnings per share beat the $2.55 consensus, and Facebook daily active users increased 4% to 1.96 billion after losing a million users last quarter.
They expect 2022 total expenses to be in the range of $87 billion to $92 billion, $3 billion lower than their prior outlook of $90 billion to $95 billion.
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE and FOLLOW-UP TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Mark Zuckerberg said: “On the family of Apps side, I am confident that we can return to better revenue growth rates over time and sustain high operating margins. In Reality Labs [the metaverse], we’re making large investments to deliver the next platform that I believe will be incredibly important both for our mission and business — comparable in value to the leading mobile platforms today. I recognize that it’s expensive to build this — it’s something that’s never been built before and it’s a new paradigm for computing and social connection.”
Revenue from Reality Labs, which includes sales of Oculus headsets and software, grew 30.1% from last year to $695 million. Meta also recently opened up its first physical store dedicated to its metaverse products.
There are two really important parts to my Meta recommendation. First, people love to hate Mark Zuckerberg, but I see one of the few people ever who did a startup that grew to over $100 billion in revenues and was CEO the whole way.
Second, this is a quote from the Technology Editor at Yahoo Finance: “Still, headsets and the metaverse in general are still far from mainstream among consumers. And whether or not it will ever reach that level of penetration will take years to understand.”
I think the metaverse will be widespread by 2025 and universal by 2030. The digital generation, Gen Z, is hungering for it. They can’t wait. And there will be an explosion of new companies providing content for education, armchair travel, entertainment, gaming…you name it. Zuckerberg has his eyes on another company that was started by someone who still was the CEO when it hit $100 billion, although not continuously.
I put Meta on the Near-Term Buy list a few weeks ago. Today, FB had its biggest one-day spike since July 25, 2013. I’m leaving it on the Near-Term list because there will be a steady stream of Wall Street upgrades coming. Check out this SeekingAlpha article: Meta Platforms: OK Earnings, Deep Value. FB is a Buy under $320 for a $400 target in 2022.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $61.56) reported a strong March quarter after the close today. Revenues grew 2.6% from last year to $6.59 billion when the consensus expected a 2.2% decline to $6.26 billion. Pro forma earning per share grew 1.9% to $2.12 when the consensus expected a 13% drop to $1.81.
On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said that HIV drug revenues increased $3.7 billion from last year. Sales of Veklury (remdesivir), its COVID-19 treatment, rose 5% to $1.5 billion. Hepatitis C drug revenues fell 22% year-over-year to $399 million and are finally so small they can’t drag on the top-line results as much.
They had a one-time in-process research and development impairment charge of $2.7 billion related to assets acquired by Gilead from Immunomedics in 2020.
On Monday, the CDC listed the COVID-19 antivirals developed by Pfizer and Gilead as preferred therapies to treat non-hospitalized patients who are at a high risk of developing severe disease.
During the quarter, Gilead made a $725 million collaboration opt-in payment to Arcus Biosciences, repaid $500 million of debt, paid dividends of $945 million, repurchased $352 million of stock, and still ended the quarter with $6.8 billion in cash. I very much agree with this SeekingAlpha article: Gilead Sciences: The Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Company. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $105 for a first target of $130.
Other Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $17.10) reports after the close next Wednesday. Expectations are for $98.96 million in sales with a loss of 14¢ per share. June quarter guidance is expected to be $99.51 million, which seems low, and another 14¢ loss. FSLY is a Buy up to $45 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $150+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $7.51) is targeting tomorrow or Saturday for their next Electron launch and their first attempt to capture the Stage-1 Booster by a recovery helicopter. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Velo3D (VLD – $3.69) announced a Seeing is Believing Additive Manufacturing Tour for Europe, which will visit seven cities in 2022 across Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom. It will focus on key industries including space, aviation, oil & gas, and energy. VLD is a Buy up to $11 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,896.80) got a $2,500 yearend target from Goldman Sachs, who said higher gold prices are necessary to balance the physical market that is seeing string demand from exchange-traded funds, China, and Russia.
The fractal dimension is reflecting the obvious consolidation in the $1,900 to $1,970 area, which I think is building more energy to drive a move up to Goldman’s $2,500 target.
Miners & Related
Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.73) announced a significant new discovery just west of the Silvertip mine. The first drill holes returned the highest grade-thickness assays at Silvertip to date, including 39.4 feet of 13.4 ounces per ton (459.6 grams per tonne) of silver in one hole, and 20.3 feet of 22.7 ounces per ton (778.3 grams per tonne) silver in another.
Coeur announces March quarter earnings after the close next Wednesday. The one published revenue estimate is $204.76 with a three-cent loss. CDE is a Buy under $10 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Sprott Inc. (SII – $46.75) acquired the North Shore Global Uranium Mining Exchange-Traded Fund (URNM) and renamed it the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (still URNM) as a complement to the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT). Buy SII under $22 for a $52 target price.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $39,877.94) is acting like a risk-on asset, fluctuating with the stock market. It briefly went into bear market territory yesterday morning at near $38,000, down some $10,000 from its late March levels.
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According to analysts at UBS, crypto-related exchange-traded funds have logged $417 million in outflows so far in April, the largest outflow on record. That usually means there are a lot of traders short, which can drive a ferocious rally – that may have started today. BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. China’s COVID infections are coming down while the proportion of cities with high- or mid-risk districts remains roughly 15% of national GDP. This variant will burn itself out.
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.48) reports earnings next Thursday after the close. The Street wants to see $58.18 million in sales and a six-cent loss, with June quarter guidance for $63.46 million and a four-cent loss. ACRDF is a buy under $4.49 for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Canopy Growth does not acquire the company.
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.35) filed their December quarter letter to shareholders. Kuppy said they have over $28.6 million in cash to build the merchant banking business after 2021 produced $10.3 million in realized gains and $7.9 million in unrealized gains.
He concluded: “I remain of the opinion that our shares are undervalued. During the year, the company used its increased liquidity to accelerate the rate of share purchases and re-purchased 3,311,500 shares under our Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) at an average price of $0.65/share. At year end, our share count was 27,778,499 or 22% less than during our peak share count in 2016. To date, the company has repurchased a total of 7,754,100 shares.”
This is a really simple investment: give Kuppy some of your money to run and he won’t even charge you 20% of the profits. Despite the recent pullback, he still has sights set on $200 oil and $200 uranium. His latest missive: The Undertow. MNGGF is a buy under $1.25 for a long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Harris Kupperman makes bad investments.
Oil – $105.25 DUC hunt season is almost over.
Drilled but Uncompleted wells – DUCs – have been the main source of increased US production increases. Desjardins says DUC hunt season is almost over. Volumes just aren’t showing up as expected, which is yet another reason why commodity prices are poised to continue marching higher.
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The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $33.35) is a Buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
* * * * *
The growth rate of the world’s population has been around a meager 0.5% per year for centuries. The post-WWII demographics boom that coincided with strong labor force and structural GDP growth was rather an exception, and we are now quickly reverting to trend.
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Your learning that EV batteries use fossil fuels Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.14) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.08) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.44) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.52) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $4.27 – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $2.83) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $5.22) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.11) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.58) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $6.71) – Buy under $7, target price $25+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $36.40) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Meta (FB – $205.73) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $61.56) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.42) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $48.62) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $17.10) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $29.990) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.13) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.92) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $7.51) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $3.69) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – $375,300 – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $23.26 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $30.45) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $39.96) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $18.439) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $33.32) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.732) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $10.63) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.58) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $7.62) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $46.75) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $39,877.94) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $27.83) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,940.307) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $21.72) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $29.47) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $33.49) – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $15.12) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $26.33) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.48) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.35) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $33.35) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.78) – Buy under $11, $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $3.62) – Hold for chronic cough results
CohBar (CWBR – $0.26) – Hold for human trials of CB5138-3
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.42) – Hold for FDA meeting
Apple Computer (AAPL – $163.64) – Hold for 5G iPhones
Sell
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $5.56) – Sell
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
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Just lost my first post magically Michael Murphy. Great Post.. I said Amazon tells a different story for us tomorrow morning, once the 8:30 economic statistics are out, Maybe. The oil report show we really will get a big hit with oil prices through the new year For gold I still like SAND and bought more based on your observation of Goldman Sachs. Also bought more SCYX and NVTA.plus some crypto related equities. Kathy Wood isn’t dead yet The moves on Ukraine are really bad, IMHO. The Neocons controlling military policy in the White House see a hold on the Ukraine a slow shiny object until the November elections give Putin his piece of the East or a remarkable performance by Zelensky with many thousand Ukraine’s dying. Terrible. I talked with a cosmetics person. Today who told me his latest great skin cure product is using peptides {can’t name it} I wondered if Norchi would be interested in this. They have expertise many year ago with burns. Just a thought Oh yes, TGTX looks like they have a potential game changer in the fall,..
Just write a check, Joe Biden has done just that . Another 33 Billion with the flick of the wrist.
MM – good read, thanks. You said “the metaverse will be widespread by 2025 and universal by 2030. The digital generation, Gen Z, is hungering for it. They can’t wait. And there will be an explosion of new companies providing content for education, armchair travel, entertainment, gaming…you name it.” So the BIG opportunity to make money is in one of those small companies, not META I believe because its too big already and it will always be primarily a social media company. Do you have a couple small companies that we can make a BIG bet on? Sandbox, Decentraland are a couple popular names but lets all try to find a few and strike before the opportunity passes us.
MM and all readers – what’s the best Uranium play out there besides UUUU, is there an Uranium stock ETF? Cathy Woods is predicting TSLA will hit $4,000 and not just due to the EV potential but rather the autonomous EV which they have more data on than any other AV company, and now Elon is talking EV trucks – isn’t that a Top 5 big bet on anyone’s list?
URA is the ETF I own. TSLA is my largest holding by far.
See my posting about your part in answering your own question. Even if all these touts you listed are right (unlikely) your own profile as a potential owner, I have had MM picks that ended up having a different profile for me. hat even included some that never met his profile, fell off in price and then got sucked up by another firm so that I had a totally different investment. Life is like that……
JCS – I have no idea what you are saying, care to clarify??
Good morning all; Labor costs for business at 38 year high and Inflation at 40 year high. Not good for the Fed as they are in a box to raise rates as the economy is running into headwinds. Add to this expenditures related to the slow walk Ukraine support and food supply chain hitting us in the US and we have what is called a “doozie”, Gold was way up before those numbers and seems inching back down, but still up about 20 dollars a troy ounce. Musk still being challenged by the far left he will not have enough share money to buy Twitter. Still up this AM as Amazon is down 300 buckaroos. GLTA
Twitter is a huge distraction for Musk. He is already stretched thin with Tesla, SpaceX, the boring company and neurolink.
I hope to see him pay the billion dollar penalty and dump the deal.
Well, delegation is one of Elon’s Forte’s. Twitter has more than a million more followers mostly from the right since the announcement of the deal. Give him a break , IMHO.
I give him all breaks. I’m heavily invested in TSLA but owning Twitter at 44 billion seems just plain stupid. I think it was ego purchase and will hurt TSLA.
BTW … all the right wingers who think that Musk is now “one of them” need to study Musk’s history.
2016 (of Trump)
“I feel a bit stronger that he is probably not the right guy,” Musk told CNBC. “He doesn’t seem to have the sort of character that reflects well on the United States.”
In June 2017, Musk announced that he would be leaving Trump’s business advisory council in protest of the president’s pulling the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement. “Climate change is real. Leaving Paris is not good for America or the world,” Musk tweeted.
On abortion:
While responding to the comments, Musk tweeted to CNBC reporter Michael Sheetz: “In general, I believe government should rarely impose its will upon the people, and, when doing so, should aspire to maximize their cumulative happiness.”
Hmm, His focus is on freedom of expression and small government. Perfect BTW, TSLA is my sec largest position behind TPL, which I have owned since $50/share. I never agreed with anyone imposing their point of view on others, like Twitter was in effect doing, as you would agree, I think.
Russia is getting more aggressive as El Capitan predicted. It is the wild card confounding any investment strategy. Most analysts are ostriches in the sand, and are downplaying Russia. WW3 is a possibility.
SCYX–I like the developments for serious infections. Will the company get rid of the incompetent Amplity and get a serious marketing firm?
The old saying. Better to have experts on tap rather than on top
I don’t follow you. I am neither a master of cryptic language nor cryptocurrencies. Please explain, thanks.
My implication is that SCYX needs better management expertise to run the company than having a subject matter
expert at the helm.
@ Chris and all. Recalling our discussions about ROKU., Even with a down recommendation from JP Morgan to about $127, it still has room to run.
Streaming outfits seem to have a lot of interest.
Oil companies are minting money. Chevron made 4 times it’s earnings first quarter. Up 41 percent. Exxon made 90 billion versus 59 billion last quarter. And that after 3.4 billion loss on Russian exit. Phillips beat expectations with $582 million in profits.
But this is on Joe Biden? Hmm.
Exactly, Joe went to war on domestic oil companies. Supply and demand dynamics. He cut off funding on new oil projects, killed the pipeline and took away all the drilling permits on federal land. Then oil companies pulled back on future oil drilling projects because it takes millions of oil dollars and years of work and risk to bring new wells on line.Then Ukraine happened and suddenly 3 million barrels a day went away. So now the companies that survived, are saving money by not drilling new wells and selling old oil at prices that they could only dream about a few years ago. So ya, thanks Joe . My Ipath Pure Beta Crd is up 52.3 percent @$33.05. At least I am getting something back from my $4.69 a gallon gas here. Just sayin.
Interesting take. Big oil won’t drill to they can keep prices high and blame it on Biden. Perfect.
I pay about 5 bucks to fill up my Tesla. NC has 4 nuke plants so we have a low .10/KWH price.
Nukes and lithium are the answer. Let’s go.
So Mike thinks that the FED would never let the market drop in an election year.
Anyone remember 2008?
Visual Capitalist: Other than my membeship here, this is a web site I use to understand the environment I am investing via MM
I use this site to get an understanding of the prospects of many stocks MM talks about here. It also helps answering some of the questions we all have here to understand the revolutionary changes in the future as differing the new investment world of the future.
So MM names specific securities – and we need to understand that eachone of his picks might match or not our profiles – saving for homes, paying for children or even old age and old folks like me.
In fact MM was doing just that for his mother and now for the kids.
What I use this free site is to get some understanding of what I should do with MMs recommendations. The economic future will surely be widely different than the past decades and your need for the profits you hope to make your future investment goals.
For me, no kids to school soon, or a better home or even sail boar.
We all know the world evonomy in five years will be quite different that five years ago. Likewise your timings will bias your buy/hold/sell profiles,
Also you will note many of MM picks include a date when he expects a
matured price. What about you – MM might be right – but for you that money might used sooner or even later?
All – what’s the better investment right now, Uranium or Lithium?
WSJ: today: Shortage of Chips Now Hurts Chip Making, pg. B1 says it all. See also my comment about another good guide.
Lithium soon to be replaced by solid state batteries. Toyota already has it in the works. Lithium is a fire hazard, takes longer to charge, is a huge weight problem, has less range , is expensive and other issues. So why buy an EV now with lithium batteries when you can wait and get one with the a solid state batteries. Lithium is now old school battery technology. Solid state batteries will lower the cost of EV’s below the cost of gasoline vehicles. Then mass adoption of EV’s will take off. IMO.
Good Morning all. Despite doom and gloom showing in the markets this morning, a couple of shining lights. NWI equity SAND, really improved its position in gold,silver, and copper royalties .Google SAND.Also, Churchchill Downs (CHDN) my favorite sports betting company
has really good financials this morning and Bof A increased its projected price to $285/share. Besides that, A completely renovated Churchill Downs race track is projected to have major attendance this Saturday, May 7 th. Do your own due diligence.
Dad bought in 1938 at $1 to get free pass to track.
In my pocket, X 3000 or better today.
@jcs, Absolutely great ROI 🙂 !!
The Fed CNBC Analyst discussion. One of the guests, stated that if the Fed did something lime 80 billion draw down per month, it would take over 8 years to fix the balance sheet problem. Noted that precious metals are down quite a bit today. Does that sound plausible to anyone on the board? Certainly, would be a kick in the pants to Gold and Silver
Good News SAND. Scotia Bank and others indicate that recent SAND deals place it in a much higher value status
NOMAD ROYALTY ANNOUNCES FRIENDLY ACQUISITION BY SANDSTORM GOLD (yahoo.com)
NVTA> Looking like they are digging out of the cash flow problem. Missed loss by .02 at 0.78. Yet their revenue was up nicely as over 700+ plus new customer. They say they will be cash positive in 2025. It is obvious they still want more disease profiles where they can be the go-to folks., a fixation on the top of the group of personalized medicine. After hours, I bought a few more shares @$5.56/share a penny above close. The conference call is still proceeding. They will have to show some beats from here on in.I think they will do better.
Looks like something said in call. NVTA down to $5.45 at 5:05PM ET
Oh Well. Still optimistic
I am negative on genetic testing, as I said before. Speak to your oncologist son to see what % of patients where genetic testing makes a difference in treatment. As for the stock, waiting until 2025 to be cash positive is the certain road to dilution. This is NOT Amazon which showed losses for many years. Everyone has bought stuff on Amazon, but genetic testing is an overblown story.
Hey JGMD. What’s the matter? The old man Fried bacon? 🙂
I have been known to have a pretty good skeptic’s view from time to time, but you may have something on the tooth getting a little longer. Seriously, my oncologist son really has gotten many years of patient comment stars in the several places he has practiced. He is not a current user of NVTA, but has used Guardant and some others as useful, but certainly not yet fully committed to formula “second opinion” status as with the full colleague grand or mini rounds. I think all of us clinicians or researchers ought to have a reverence for what we see with morning ward visits and the behavioral part of what we call treatment. On the other hand, these outfits like NVTA, Guardant and others really speed up an assessment of how to incorporate DNA etc al can review thousands of case outcomes, as compared to our patients with ranges of severity momentum. So yeah, my son is pretty much partly in your
genetic testing skepticism, but i think we can use the value it provides on a case-by-case basis. Be well. BTW, NVTA had a little bump back up today indicating that there is more confidence in the march towards positive cash flow.
OK, ask your son what % of cases he has managed where Guardant’s testing made a difference in his treatment, hopefully for the better. In my limited experience with lung cancer, there are several mutations that are associated with different cells of lung cancer, but there are only a few mutations that are responsive to specific targeted drugs where the survival is prolonged. For most mutations, there are no specific drugs, and the patient is stuck getting blunt instrument chemo which is horrendous.
Since your well respected son is not using NVTA, that should make you suspicious of this company as a prudent investment. This confirms my position that NVTA is a rank speculation with big continuing financial risk.
The eternal question with any stock that has plunged is whether the low priced stock is about to turn around and rise, or whether the low priced stock is headed to zero, continuing the trend. Technicians will say it is headed to zero, because the bad chart represents the collective market’s assessment of the future. Only an informed speculator with your son’s knowledge and experience can say whether the stock represents an intelligent speculation at the low price.
I feel you could have waited to buy in around 5,sean had 3 months to make these earnings look better,missed on revs and loss more than expected again,he needed the loss to be under 76 cents not above,sad to have to wait another 3 months in hopes he get it right
At last earnings report 3 months ago we were trading above 11 after that loss we came down under 5 before this report,now here we sit still losing more than the street expected and for Sean George to state to be cash flow positive by 2025 with all the day by day uncertainties surrounding the world,good luck Sean hope to be alive long enough to see that happen
Another plunging NWI fantasy stock. See my post above.
Startling turnaround today from 4.8 to 5.8 as the market focused on the company’s outlook instead of the (meaningless) earnings miss.
@Tony, good eye!!! See my response above.
HYPR , found on Yahoo and tipped toe in, see what you think???
The new Radar Report for 5.5.22 is posted.