Radar Report – 5.5.22

Michael Murphy
Uncategorized
2022-05-06
05
May 22

Dear New World Investor:

Powell giveth and the markets taketh away. Yesterday, the Fed increased the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points – ½ of 1%. It was the first 50 basis rate hike in 22 years but exactly as expected and the market yawned. Then, in his press conference about 45 minutes later, Chairman Powell said 75 basis point hikes are off the table and all heck broke loose. The S&P 500 jumped 124.69 points or 3.0% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average tacked on 932 points – their best one-day percentage gains since 2000. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 401 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 added 51 points. Gold was up $16, oil added over 5% to nearly $108, and bitcoin rose almost $2,200 or 5.8%.

It was the best performance on a day that the Fed hiked the funds rate in 44 years. In part, this was a relief rally that things weren’t worse. But also it was a recognition that the Fed is hiking into a global (but not US – yet) recession, which means the coming QE will be historic.

Today, investors had second thoughts and the indices gave back all of yesterday’s gains and more. Since last Thursday, the S&P 500 lost 3.3% after losing 8.8% in April, its worst month since March 2020. The Index is down 13.0% year-to-date, its worst start to a year since World War II.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 4.3% after shedding 13.3% in April for its worst monthly showing since October 2008. It is down 21.3% for the year.

Unprofitable technology stocks have taken a big hit and now sell for less than their historic price/sales multiple. We could see one standard deviation – another 10% drop – before this turns around.

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The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 2.4% and is down 16.7% in 2022.

In the meantime, the typical pension fund’s 40% allocation to bonds is not looking good and may cause some extra demand for stocks. It’s been a long time since bonds had a year like 2022.

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Last week’s American Association of Individual Investors bull-bear spread showed that investors were most gloomy about stocks since the financial crisis selloff. In 35 years, only five other weeks got this extreme:

* * Four during the 1990 recession trough/inflation peak
* * One at the exact bottom in March 2009

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The fractal dimension broke through the 55 level today, meaning a new trend could be underway. Most of the drop in the last five weeks was just a consolidation of the sharp jump up in the three weeks before that, but if the market doesn’t find immediate support, we have to assume we’re headed lower until the fractals hit 30.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
FB Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse

Economy

The Atlanta Fed‘s early read on June quarter real GDP is +2.2% as consumers continue to spend. That’s neither weak nor strong – it’s mediocre, but nowhere near the recession calls you’re hearing.

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Virus Update

Worldometers now shows 515,604,943 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 476,604,604 have run their course. Of those, 470,333,647 recovered and 6,270,957 died – the third week in a row at the new low case fatality rate of 1.3%.

In the US, there have been 83,356,490 confirmed infections, of which 81,859,931 have run their course. Of those, 80,836,418 recovered and 1,023,513 died, a case fatality rate of 1.25%.

Fun fact: Did you know that Q1 2022 had the 3rd highest COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began?

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Hospitalizations are up about 30% from the mid-April low.

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But daily deaths continue to fall and are about to go under 300.

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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them. Busy week!

Friday, May 6
April payrolls – 8:30am – +391,000 expected
SII – Sprott – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
SCYX – ScyNexis – 4:00pm – Poster presentation at the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists annual meeting

Monday, May 9
AKBA- Akebia – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
APTO – Aptose – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Tuesday, May 10
QUIK – QuickLogic – 10:15am – Oppenheimer Emerging Growth Conference
CDE – Coeur Mining – 10:30am – Annual meeting
QUIK – QuickLogic – 1:00pm – Annual meeting
Short Interest – After the close
INO – Inovio – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
GILD – Gilead – 5:00pm – BofA Healthcare Conference
VLD – Velo3D – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Wednesday, May 11
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am – +8.4% expected; +6.0% core
GRPH – Graphite Bio – 5:40pm – BofA Securities Healthcare Conference

Thursday, May 12
SFTBY – SoftBank – 3:30am – Earnings conference call
AG – First Majestic – Before the open – Earnings release; no call
SCYX – ScyNexis – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
FSLY – Fastly – 1:00pm – Investor Day

The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.

The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.34) said that the last patient has completed the treatment period in the Phase 2 trial of Ifenprodil for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and chronic cough – about a year behind schedule due to the virus lockdowns in Australia. We will get topline data in July.

This was an open label trial in 20 patients that had a diagnosis of IPF and a moderate or worse cough. The primary endpoint of the IPF part of the study is the proportion of patients who achieve zero reduction in lung function at 12 weeks versus baseline.

The primary endpoint for the chronic cough portion of the study is a 50% reduction in average 24-hour cough count at 12 weeks.

IPF is a serious disease with 50% mortality expected within three to four years. AGNPF is a Hold.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: 2022

Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.22) reports their March quarter next Monday. Analysts are expecting a 15¢ loss, but the stock will move based on what management says about the various trials. The original reason we bought APTO was for APTO-253, which the company has put up for sale.

They pivoted to luxeptinib, where they’ve had problems getting enough drug into people to have an effect. At this point, they are publishing mop-up data, like the three recent peer-reviewed journal articles showing preclinical data suggesting lux can treat inflammation as well as cancer. We are waiting for news about when the new, higher-potency formulation of lux can get into human trials.

That leaves the newest drug they in-licensed, HM43239. The FDA just granted it Fast Track Designation for relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia with FLT3 mutation. The drug is in an international Phase 1/2 trial in relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia patients. It received Orphan Drug Designation for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia in 2018. APTO is a Buy under $4 for a $45 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1a
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: late 2022 or early 2023

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $8.83) said that positive data demonstrating the potential of COMP360 psilocybin therapy in anorexia nervosa and severe treatment-resistant depression was presented at the Society of Biological Psychiatry annual meeting in New Orleans, from two investigator-initiated studies.

The anorexia study investigated the safety, efficacy, and tolerability of a single 25-milligram dose of COMP360 psilocybin therapy in 10 patients. Three of them experienced clinically significant reductions in eating disorder psychopathology at the one-month follow-up, and four experienced clinically significant reductions at the three-month follow-up. CMPS is a Buy under $36 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: Mid-2023

Graphite Bio (GRPH – $4.16) got Fast Track Designation for GPH101 for the treatment of sickle cell disease. It previously was granted Orphan Drug Designation. The company said they are enrolling patients in their Phase 1/2 trial and expect to dose the first patient later this year, with initial proof-of-concept data in 2023. GRPH is a Buy under $26 for a $50 target in 2022, $100 in 2023, and then higher.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: 2023 or 2024

Inovio (INO – $2.79) reports the March quarter next Tuesday. They are expected to lose 34¢ a share. In addition so the usual updates to all their other programs, I want to hear where they are in the process of changing the endpoint for their COVID-19 vaccine trial. INO is a Buy under $21 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2022
   Probable time of next financing: Not needed

Invitae (NVTA – $5.29) reported March quarter revenues up 19.9% from last year to $123.69 million with a pro forma loss of 78¢ per share. The consensus was expecting $129.31 million and a 76¢ loss. The virus surge in January restrained patient visits, but they’ve seen improving momentum and new account growth throughout and exiting the quarter.

Active healthcare provider accounts grew 31% from last year to 19,436. Active pharma and commercial partnerships grew 72% to 206. Their total patient population is over 2.8 million, with 62% available for sharing.

Invitae’s strategy has been to pour cash into R&D and marketing to drive the cost of genetic screening down and accumulate the biggest genomic database. As the industry transitioned from single genomic screens to comprehensive genomic profiles, they wanted to win the “winner take most” #1 market share. I supported that strategy, but Wall Street hated it. So on the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management shifted direction and said it will reduce its cash burn throughout 2022 by over $200 million, extending its cash runway through 2023, and reach positive cash flow by 2025.

They continue to guide for 40% revenue growth this year to $640 million, based on “a number of products and service improvements in addition to new capabilities launched throughout the year. We have been picking up the pace on new product introduction.”

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They expect sequential quarter-over-quarter growth of 15% to 20% this year to $200 million in the December quarter, exiting the year at an $800 million run rate.

At the end of the quarter, they had $885 million in cash. The stock is trading for only 1.5x cash per share, less than half of book value, less than 2x this year’s sales, and down 90% from its all-time high. It’s time to back up the truck. Buy NVTA under $50 for the first target of $100 and eventually $200+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
   Clinical stage of lead product: NM
   Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: May not be needed

Medicenna (MDNA – $1.13) announced new clinical data from the first three cohorts in their Phase 1/2 trial of MDNA11. Anti-cancer expression by T-cells and NK cells increased a whopping 17x and 10x over baseline, respectively, following treatment with MDNA11 in the trial’s third dose escalation cohort, with no dose-limiting toxicities. This is going to replace Interleukin-2 as a treatment for solid tumors – a huge market.

At the Bloom Burton Healthcare Conference (ZOOM HERE and SLIDES HERE), management gave a good review, including why they are better than the competitors that have been acquired for over $1 billion.

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On MDNA55, they said they have completed the process of looking for partners, including the commercial analysis of what they think each potential partner could bring to the table. They have interviewed key opinion leaders and payers in the US and Europe. But they did not say when they would have an announcement. Buy MDNA under $4 for a first target of $40, then maybe $80.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: mid-2023

ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.43) reports March quarter results next Thursday morning. Analysts are expecting $1.06 million in revenues and a 75¢ loss per share. There should be about 4,660 Brexafemme prescriptions, but the revenue per prescription has not been consistent. They could report anything from $500,000 to $1.5 million on the top line.

They will present new data from the ongoing FURI trial of ibrexafungerp in refractory vulvovaginal candidiasis at the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists annual clinical & scientific meeting tomorrow. Buy SCYX under $24 for a first target price of $54 now that Brexafemme is approved and a buyout at $170.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
   Probable time of next financing: 2023 or never

Biotech MegaShift

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $0.41) reports results next Monday. The only thing that matters is when they meet with the FDA. AKBA is a Hold for the FDA meeting on vadadustat.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA filed
   Probable time of next FDA approval:
Unknown
   Probable time of next financing: June quarter of 2022

Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $156.77), Google, and Microsoft are joining hundreds of other companies to support the FIDO Alliance standard for no-password sign-ins. It will make signing in faster, easier, and more secure than even two-factor authentication. About time! AAPL is a Hold for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Meta Platforms (FB – $) is slowing hiring to cut costs. At the end of March they had 77,800 employees, up 28% in a year, including 5,800 new hires in the first quarter. They’ll still add people, but more slowly.

Rumors are the company is planning to release four virtual reality headsets between now and 2024, according to a leaked internal road map. Project Cambria, a high-end virtual reality and mixed-reality headset it is billing as a device for the future of work, will be released around September. Cambria was originally supposed to come out in 2021, but its launch was delayed by supply chain and other pandemic-related issues. A second version of Cambria, code-named Funston, is slated to come out in 2024. The aggressive timeline reflects Zuckerberg’s desire to advance his vision of the metaverse by getting more people to use virtual reality devices. FB is a Buy under $320 for a $400 target in 2022.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $19.95) reports results in the wee hours of next Thursday (3:30am EDT = 4:30pm JST). Wall Street wants to hear that SoftBank is investing more cautiously (they are) and still buying back stock (they are). SFTBY is a Buy under $30 for a first target of $60 in the next two years.

Other Tech

Fastly (FSLY – $13.81) reported March quarter revenues up 20.7% from last year to a record $102.38 million, their first quarter over $100 million and above their guidance. They had a pro forma loss of 15¢ per share. They beat the top-line consensus for $98.94 million but missed on the bottom line by a penny.

The critical Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate was 118% in the quarter. The average of their 457 enterprise customers spent $722,000 in the quarter, up 3% from the December quarter. Growth has been steady and strong:

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On the conference call (INVESTOR SUPPLEMENT HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Joshua Bixby said he is stepping down and when a replacement is found, he intends to leave the Board. He’s been a great CEO and that understandably hurt the stock. But he will be an important part of choosing the next CEO and if he feels getting the company public and to this level is what he was good at, this could be a really mature decision.

They guided the June quarter to revenue of $99 million to $102 million with a pro forma loss of 15¢ to 18¢. For the full year, they now expect revenue of $405 million to $415 million, a $5 million increase, with a pro forma loss of 50¢ to 60¢ per share.

Fastly is holding an Investor Day next Thursday that should calm people down. FSLY is a Buy up to $45 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $150+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Velo3D (VLD – $3.38) reports March quarter results next Tuesday. Analysts are expecting $12.38 million in sales and a 10¢ loss. They are looking for June quarter guidance for $18.03 million and an 11¢ loss. At today’s close, VLD has a total market capitalization of $645 million, less than 5x next year’s revenue estimate. I don’t know how a company absolutely critical to the re-industrialization of America can be so cheap.

And speaking of re-industrialization, Velo3D just qualified the copper-chromium-niobium alloy GRCop-42 for use in its Sapphire family of printers. This alloy was developed by NASA to manufacture parts in need of high-strength and high-conductivity, such as rocket engine combustion chambers with regenerative cooling. Velo3D customers can use the newly-developed material parameters to produce mission-critical parts with oxidation resistance and high creep strength at temperatures as high as 14000 F. VLD is a Buy up to $11 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Gold ($1,876.50) will back the Russian ruble and China probably will be close behind. India and Saudi Arabia could follow. That may be the spark that sets off the long-awaited push to new all-time highs.

Gold broke under $1,900 and headed for its 200-day moving average at $1,835, but then reversed. The fractal dimension still is showing consolidation, with no discernible weekly trend.

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.87) reported March quarter revenues down 6.8% from last year to $188.4 million, missing the $193.63 consensus estimate. The pro forma loss of five cents a share also missed the consensus estimate for a three-cent loss. On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they said costs are way up. Diesel was $2.27 a gallon in last year’s March quarter and $3.62 this year. (It’s $6 a gallon in New York.) Cement has gone from $87.99 a ton to $98.34. Labor is up from $40.30 an hour to $45.50.

They expected the first quarter to be the lowest of the year. They now expect full-year production of 315,000 to 353,000 ounces of gold and nine million to eleven million ounces of silver. Because they are spending so much on exploration and development, they’ve raised money through the At-The-Market facility and sold some gold hedges, including into 2023.

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CDE is a Buy under $10 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

First Majestic (AG – $9.88) will report next Tuesday morning, but they don’t do conference calls. Analysts are expecting $172 million in revenues and five cents a share. AG is a Buy under $15 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.90) announced two huge acquisitions. They acquired Nomad Royalty Company (NSR) for $590 million and nine royalties and one stream from BaseCore Metals LP for $525 million, payable by $425 million in cash and $100 million in SAND stock.

Sandstorm said these acquisitions are transformative due to:

* * Considerable Upsize to Sandstorm’s Scale: The transactions substantially increase Sandstorm’s scale and size, cementing their status as the largest, highest-growth, and most liquid mid-tier royalty and streaming company.

* * Precious Metals Focused with Exceptional Assets: The addition of several high-quality, low-cost assets fortifies Sandstorm’s focus on gold, silver, and copper exposure. By 2025, Sandstorm’s revenue is expected to be nearly 90% precious metals

* * Highest Growth Among Peers: Sandstorm expects its production to grow more than 85% between 2022 and 2025, positioning the company with the highest growth amongst peers. The transactions add several development-stage assets contributing to this growth.

* * Industry Leading Portfolio Diversification: On completion of the transactions, Sandstorm’s portfolio will total 260 streams and royalties, of which 39 of the underlying assets will be cash-flowing with no asset contributing more than 15% to the Company’s consensus net asset value.

* * Increase to Long-term Guidance: The transactions increase Sandstorm’s 2022 production guidance by approximately 22% from 65,000 to 70,000 gold-equivalent ounces to 80,000 to 85,000, and increase long-term production guidance by 55% from 100,000 gold-equivalent ounces to 155,000 in 2025.

* * Strengthening Sandstorm’s Partnership with Horizon Copper: Furthering Sandstorm’s strategy to acquire precious metal streams on high-quality copper assets, Sandstorm will sell a portion of a copper royalty to Horizon and retain a silver stream, adding diversification and size to Horizon’s growing copper portfolio, while increasing Sandstorm’s precious metal exposure.

CEO Nolan Watson said: “We believe that precious metals and copper are poised to materially outperform the market in the coming years, and we are excited to provide investors with exposure to long-life, high quality, and low-cost assets focused on gold, silver, and copper.”

Sandstorm is the cheapest, lowest-risk way to invest in precious metals. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sprott Inc. (SII – $44.84) declared a 25¢ per share dividend, an implied yield of 2.2%. Buy SII under $22 for a $52 target price.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $35,934.00) has been tracking risk-on assets like the S&P, so it’s in the toilet like the market. I expect a very big rally coming out of this.

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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China.

Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.41) reported March quarter results after the close, but the conference call isn’t until tomorrow morning. March quarter revenue increased 48.1% from last year to $56.9 million. They had their fifth straight quarter of positive EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization).

After the quarter ended they sold their Medford, Oregon, cultivation and processing facility for $2 million and closed their dispensary in Powell, OR. They are getting ready for adult-use sales in New York and Connecticut. The company ended the quarter with $32.6 million in cash and $25 million available on their credit facility. ACRDF is a buy under $4.49 for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Canopy Growth does not acquire the company.

Oil – $108.30

Russian oil production is falling. In March it fell 500,000 barrels a day, and by the end of April reached one million barrels a day. The shortfall is expected to hit two million barrels a day by the end of May – and that’s before any European Union embargo hits exports. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, that could make seven million barrels a day of Russian oil unavailable to the West. According to the Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, US oil production will rise by only 800,000 barrels a day this year.

High gasoline prices are not causing demand destruction. According to the Energy Information Administration, the February oil demand in the US was 20.436 million barrels per day (mbpd). That was up +2.992 mbpd or 17.2% from February 2021, 1.5% higher than February 2020 just as the virus was hitting, and 0.7% higher than February 2019.

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Storage is very low. Gasoline stockpiles are at an eight-year low, and the ones in New England have hit their lowest level since 1991.

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President Biden’s decision to label Saudi Arabia a “pariah state” seems badly timed, as the kingdom is using the Ukraine-Russia tension to re-establish itself not only in energy markets but global politics. According to the International Energy Agency, Riyadh controls 55% of the global crude oil production capacity that can be tapped in short order to cushion any stoppage. It’s a powerful tool in a world worried about rising oil prices and inflation.

With Brent crude around $100 a barrel and Saudi production on its way to the highest annual average, Riyadh is making more money than at any time since King Salman ascended to the throne in January 2015. On current trends, the kingdom will earn $375 billion pumping oil this year, the second-highest amount ever. It’s more than double the $145 billion it made in 2020.

As oil marches higher, is this becoming a crowded trade? Has energy investing become too popular? No. Investors are exiting energy commodity exchange-traded funds at a rapid clip.

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The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.

The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $34.53) is a Buy under $24 for an $80+ target.

* * * * *

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Also:

“You’re not allowed to speak about holes because you have the wrong [melanin type/gender/etc] and the fact that you think you can means that YOU, not the whole, are the problem.”

“The hole exists due to systemic issues. It’s your fault that we’re all sinking.”

* * * * *

A truck loaded with thousands of copies of Roget’s Thesaurus spilled its load leaving New York. Witnesses were stunned, startled, aghast, stupefied, confused, shocked, rattled, paralyzed, dazed, bewildered, surprised, dumbfounded, flabbergasted, confounded, astonished, and numbed.

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* * * * *

Your considering housing Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

$20-for-$1
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.22) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.08) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
  Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.30) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $8.83) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $4.16) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
  Inovio (INO – $2.79) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $5.29) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $1.13) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.43) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170

Other Biotech
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $7.52) – Buy under $7, target price $25+

Tech Dominators
  Corning (GLW – $36.53) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Meta (FB – $208.28) – Buy under $320, target price $400
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $61.35) – Buy under $105, target price $130
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $19.95) – Buy under $30, target price $60

Other Tech
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $45.00) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $13.81) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
  PagerDuty (PD – $27.61) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.34) – Buy under $10, target price $60
  Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.91) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $6.78) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $3.38) – Buy under $11, target price $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – $375,300 – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
  Bag of Junk Silver – $22.49 – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $30.16) – Buy under $25, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $38.56) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $18.04) – Buy under $15, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $32.31) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.87) – Buy under $10, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $9.88) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.59) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.90) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $44.84) – Buy under $30, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $35,934.00) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $25.02) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,743.57) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $20.06) – Buy

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $29.31) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $33.15) – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $15.03) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $27.08) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.41) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.43) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold

Energy
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
  iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $34.53) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.08) – Buy under $11, $30 target

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.34) – Hold for chronic cough results
  CohBar (CWBR – $0.21) – Hold for human trials of CB5138-3
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.41) – Hold for FDA meeting
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $156.77) – Hold for 5G iPhones

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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1

2-nd?

3

Fore (he’s a jolly good fellow).

MM–on VLD, you said, “At today’s close, VLD has a total market capitalization of $645 million, less than 5x next year’s revenue estimate. I don’t know how a company absolutely critical to the re-industrialization of America can be so cheap.”

As usual, the companies you recommend have slower revenue growth than you expect, which is why the stocks plunge from your buy price. When next year’s actual revenue is much less than the estimates, the stock’s price/revenue will be much higher than 5, and the stock will likely be lower than today, and still NOT cheap.

When will ARTH report the March quarter revenues? They are delaying, because they likely still don’t have much revenue.

Good to know. Thanks MM and JGMD for asking the questions. I was thinking of picking up some more anyway. Now Monday looks like a good bet.

Other companies I follow will announce March quarter numbers this month. If sales at ARTH were good, they would be announcing it this month, like the other companies. Prediction–they are delaying as long as possible, in hopes for a last minute miracle, not good. Watch for another dilutionary capital raise, before the late June announcement, when the stock will plunge further.

With minimal sales, the books will show little. The accountants could tell the story in 5 minutes–nothing to say. No need to wait until June 30 when most companies will report a month before that date.

MM, do you still believe arch will not go to zero, when do you think that we might see some movement?

What will it take for SCYX to move ? Do you think buying it under $24.00 is a little off the mark when it goes down from $2.40 to $2.21 today?

Last edited 1 month ago by Don Bennett

WRONG. SCYX lost 12% today when the Nasdaq only lost 4%. Companies like SCYX with bad financial data are punished. Flat sales for a while, due to bad marketing from Amplity and good but not great trial data for VVC add up to continuing losses. Another NWI death spiral stock. If they get a better marketing agent, the good developments for hospitalized infections will pay off. SCYX may plunge to $1 or below before rising.

How come I predicted below $2 when you enthusiastically bought more at $2.40 or so? Just because the offering was at $3, you thought your buy price was a bargain. But I paid attention to the reality of the business.

I don’t care what their intentions are. When the March quarter again shows little or no sales, reality dashes the stubborn fantasies of the funders. TN and his funders may have deals for themselves at bankruptcy, while shareholders like us will be screwed and get nothing.

Mike,

Can you explain why revenues are not consistent for Brexafemme prescriptions? Or, what could cause inconsistency in reporting revenue on prescription sales? Thanks

Anyone “backing up the truck” on NVTA at this price level? Disclosure: I own 3K shares at a cost basis of around $9/share. A month ago I wrote 10 contracts of the June $5 put for 60 cents.

Wish my buy in on nvta was only 9,the picks on this newsletter have changed my view on mm, wanted the membership to buy it up to 50 dollars a share we ran it up now look at it,now I am strapped,who knows next they could announce a reverse split? So

MM , how many times must i say it? I don’t care how good a company VLD is or NVTA for that matter, these 2 stocks will not go up until the worst ever money manager, Cathie Wood is liqidated. The positive news is liquidations are starting to happen. Her average stock is down 79%. It can’t be much longer.

WD – you can say it as many times as you want but that doesnt make it true. Not sure where you derive your assessment but Woods has seen a very high level of inflow of capital to her funds in the last couple months by the smart investors who have more than a one year investment horizon so where do you get the notion she is in trouble? CW has beat the average fund managers, even the top fund managers, soundly over any 5 year period but suddenly she’s “the worse ever” because of a couple down years? C’mon man stop with the fake news, 5 years from now (which is her investment horizon) Woods will be on top again – do you really think because of the short term happening today that innovative companies and new disruptive technology will stop and cease to exist? Try to have a longer perspective, and when you do, buy some bitcoin and Ethereum also, you wont be disappointed

We all want to get in on the ground floor of innovative companies with disruptive technology. Trouble is, they need money, and it is the job of the financial hucksters to keep the stock price high early on so companies can raise money with the least dilution. When sales don’t meet hucksters’ promotional expectations, the stocks go into a downward spiral with few exceptions. They are only buys when there is blood in the streets at maximum pessimism. Until then, the only thing disruptive is the damn declining stock chart.

If it were not for an oversized position in TSLA her 5 year would be abysmal. No money manager trying to manage a hyper growth ETF would ever have a position in TSLA over 5%. Let alone over 10%. She is reckless and her average down on losers strategy will be the end for her. She had to start quoting 5 year returns because 1 and 3 are horrible. PS she is not getting inflows.

you’ve got the facts wrong – check againl

You go back to ARKK funds inception and they have beaten all other in any 3-5 year period and also in most one year performances with the exception of last 2 years because she invests early in game changing companies. Everyone is down the last year, ARKK is down more because of the risk profile, ARKK will in turn recover faster and bigger than the market when its risk on again. You clearly don’t understand her investment style – if its not for you that’s fine so stay away but to call her the worse ever is factually inaccurate.

Steve you obviously dont understand money management. No true professional averages down when stock is more than 50% against them. They cut and reload somewhere else. She aggressively averages down on many of her positions. To give her a pass because everyone was down last year is wrong. Every money manager has benchmarks. At the end of this year, one of her early “lucky” years rolls off and her 1-3-5 year will be abysmal.

William,it seems like the same scenario with the picks from this newsletter

I own scyx it seems to go down every day Is it time to sell it?
It is down another 13% today.

Last edited 1 month ago by Don Bennett

Perhaps we should short all of these stocks?

I mentioned that last week Don about how someone must have it in for MM and they have been shorting everything he recommends to us we run it up,no way should we have this many losers

Nvta has to go up 300 precent from today’s price for me to break even ay 16.50, what about the people that bought in the 40s they have to g up 900 precent to break even

Nobody has any agenda against MM. His picks are all startups, most of which have poor management. The market for these stocks tells the appropriate story. Even with better management, these companies are in a tough competitive field.

In classical music, most of the conservatory students are superbly trained, talented and perform at a high level. But too much competition and dwindling numbers of concertgoers means that most of them do not have decent careers in music, and have to survive doing things outside of music.

Bought VLD today at $2.67, simply amazing. Buying opportunity of a lifetime, IMO.

VLD is one of the few NWI stocks with a good business plan. They are not projected to have any net earnings for several years. No doubt they are growing, but if they don’t have earnings for 7 years instead of 4 years from now, the stock will continue its plunge. The chart is terrible, as the market is sensing that the stock is not yet cheap enough. I am waiting for a good basing period, probably around $1. Where are the technicians that used to be subscribers?

BTW, I object to valuation on the basis of price/sales. If costs are high, the growth in sales don’t translate into earnings. If there are no earnings, a company is intrinsically worth ZERO to a passive investor. Any price above zero reflects fantasy speculation that the company will eventually show earnings. I hear the hollers from financial analysts who might say that capital assets and intellectual property have value. The truth is that there is value only if they can produce earnings. These analysts are merely shills for the fantasy hopes. I don’t think a prudent investor like Buffett would touch these stocks until they have earnings. The MM types will say that Buffett will miss out on ground floor opportunities. Yes, they will occasionally miss out, but they will also miss out on the carnage and life cut short by financial wipeout resulting from the vast majority of these types of stocks.

VLD reports record earnings and forward looking revenue targets. Tuesday

VLD forecasts 2022 revenue to be $89 million. That is a forward price/sales of 6, likely optimistic pumping. March quarter loss of $65 million. With $186 million in cash, that’s another 3 quarters before inevitable dilution. Positive earnings aren’t expected for many years, so expect continued dilutions. The chart shows a steep downward decline, as the market has the same view as I.

Technicians here include Wendy and El Capitan. Any guess as to the bottom and when? Thanks.

That’s true only for quality stocks with good businesses. Quality bounces like a tennis ball, but garbage plunges through the sinkhole.

MM
behind on my reading but see that you used a term I haven’t seen from you since the days when I listened to your reports via phone recording. Does the term “Back up the truck” you used with NVTA have the same strength today as it had back then? Thanks

OK if you haven’t figured it out yet that Cathie Wood is the worst money manager of all time. Here is another one. She bought RBLX in April and in less than 20 days she lost 50%. You don’t want to own a stock she owns. Just saying…

WD – its that type of thinking that will prevent you from making life changing returns, which is what I am seeking, not the 15% returns that barely keep me ahead of inflation. Yes Roblox is down 50%, but Amazon in its early stages was down 50% 5 times, and down 75% twice, I suppose you’d call anyone holding and buying thru the Amazon early stages as stupid? Truly disruptive and innovative companies take time to prosper but when they do its life changing – those are the companies Woods invests in.

The trouble with innovative companies is that their stock prices are usually overvalued. This is because they need money, and the job of management is to tell an optimistic story, inflate the stock price so there can be as little dilution as possible. R&D takes longer than expected, and sales growth is also slower than the promoters say, so the stock price continues to decline, with rare exceptions. The only way to invest in these companies is to be patient, patient, patient, and buy at the point of maximum pessimism.

Yes but AMZN was one of the few survivors of dot.com bust. Cathie Wood as of today her total return from 2014 is 122% and the S&P 500 total return is 128%. Remember Bill Hwang was her mentor and seeded her. He is charged with fraud and racketeering!! You would do better finding your own disrupted technology companies. Cathie Wood also was criticized for underperformance in the 2000’s

MM – INO just cancelled their covid trials, stock is plunging, what now?!

Not that the president is resigning and if being replaced immediately by a new hire. The former leader is to stay on the board. Like the big shake up is started. What now?

Subscriber Michael called INO correctly.

That story was over 2 years ago. Mike is STUBBORN.

What’s next tomorrow is the morning announcement of the inflation data, which Biden knew this afternoon., a reason for the nonsensical strength analogies he announced with further restrictions for fossil and pipeline expansion. Especially bad for the Northeast. Any bets on the numbers tomorrow?
BTW, please check out the turnaround numbers for Energy Transfer units. Great numbers. You will like the 7%+ divvies plus the projected potential of a double in a little more than a year. (That’s symbol ET) Please do your own due diligence. GLTA

Last edited 1 month ago by Donald Galamaga

Another Cathie Wood fatality today: COIN. down 24% on earnings. She was already down 70% on her original position. And just lost a quick 100 on the COIN she bought Apr 20 to average down. WORST

Well, it’s hard to find very many money managers making money in this collapse. No safe havens .. anywhere. Cash is the best position.

Anyone got some spare change? I need something to eat. I promise I won’t buy booze .. well I might buy booze. 🙂

Last edited 1 month ago by Michael

MAYBE WE COULD SHARE A FIFTH…I THINK I NEED IT..

A DOUBLE DRAMBUIE ON THE ROCKS SOUNDS SO GOOD ABOUT NOW!!!!

One of the few safe havens is food stocks. I am profitable on Tyson, recommended by Navellier. He has daily 5-10 min updates. No buy and hold on spec stocks, unlike you know who.

NVTA is around 92% off its highs. It’s selling like an option now. Bought a handful .. really small.

TSLA might collapse. It was a big winner and funds need to raise cash .. now!

Good time to be in cash IMO. Should have been in cash January though . 🙁

Interesting move, Michael. I am meeting with a team of charity fund investors this morning to consider the upside of Twitter given the Musk investment team of 7 billion as a real opportunity and the TSLA split and the potential of his recent chip and scarce metals deals squeezing out EV competitors. Good luck to us. U R right on NVTA . Me too.

Last edited 1 month ago by Donald Galamaga

Musk buying TWTR reminds me of 2008 when MSFT tried to buy Yahoo. It marked the top of the market .. or so.

Hopefully this deal doesn’t go through. It’s a huge distraction for Elon and for what? He needs to stick to his 5 other more important projects. This feels like a drunk late night impulse buy.

Might I suggest AXON? They have a monopoly on law enforcement security cams and are signing contracts almost daily. Their last earnings were quite good. Recession proof. Although their stock price will follow the market .. long term winner IMO.

Last edited 1 month ago by Michael

Donald, with all due respect, don’t you take into consideration the minor role of genetic testing in improving the prognosis of cancer patients, as expressed by your son and me? Your son told you he doesn’t use NVTA.

For breast cancer, estrogen/progesterone/HER2 receptor determinations are useful guides to treatment, but this is general analysis. I haven’t seen any cases where advanced genetic testing for mutations makes any difference. For lung cancer, the EGFR mutation is amenable to specific drugs which greatly improve prognosis. The other mutations don’t have specific therapies, so the prognosis is dismal for the vast majority of lung cancer patients.

NVTA is a lottery ticket.

NVTA is the PRICE of a lottery ticket. I bought some LABU .. tiny .. for the bounce this morning. So far so good. Got my finger on the sell button.

Market has NOT hit bottom yet. Waiting for that to happen.

Good morning all: I give up on the “Wizard of Oz” team running the company now. This move last night is major league STUPID and guarantees Northeast US power outages this summer and escalates favorable profits on demand dynamics vs supply to some countries as our Gulf LNG languishes and pipelines are loan squeezed due to ESG links with banks that are strangling developers..
Biden cancels offshore oil lease sales in Gulf of Mexico, Alaska (axios.com)

STUPID, yes.

How many leases are the oil and gas companies sitting on now? They are intentionally NOT DRILLING TO JACK PRICES.

Biden is an excellent cover though. The masses will blame him and fortunately for the GOP the masses are uneducated.

I found a second home in Victoria BC. The US is so screwed up. Sad.

Michael, I must say you have been spot on with the market and commentary on picks you have made in the past. You seem to be a well educated knowledgeable individual. You definitely need to refrain commenting on the Oil & Gas Industry, this is about the dumbest post I have seen you make, you are evidently clueless about the Oil & Gas sector.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/24/energy/gas-prices-oil-production-wall-street/index.html

Fifty-nine percent of oil executives said investor pressure to maintain capital discipline is the primary reason publicly traded oil producers are restraining growth

Dumb? Educate me.

Leave it to left wing CNN to be an apologist for dumb Dem politicians. Even if oil execs are withholding exploration, there is no reason for a stupid politician to shut down the Alaskan oil fields. Let the oil execs decide for themselves whether to explore or not–don’t cut off their options. The average American who complains about high gasoline prices would welcome exploration.

JG, you beat me on that. American Petroleum Institute does not kowtow to the folks at the white houe…er CNN. I don’t have much time to post tonight, but I must confess to a much appreciated “Legend in Energy” an honorary title from the International Association of Energy Engineers and all of the stuff being used to explain what is being used to explain the white house gang today gives me unbelievable headaches. The existential threat song has to be retired. No honest energy scientist today like Steve Koonin et al will tell you we are doing OK with incremental improvements to clean up and balance out the carbon mythology that the radicals are stretching to kill off half the planet, while Vlad and Xi say “are you kidding us?” et etc etc. Too much to say and hard to get listeners. Best wishes for calm as my new focus is on integrated health care …gotta get medical schools to knock down the silos of specialties that hinder a healthier populace. Enuf for preaching. This darn market has Powell for more years as he got tenure so to speak to add climate change as a new catalyst for nice balance sheet satiety> Ohhh no. Looking for the Radar folks.

Morning lullaby for this market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uyuub51sPCM

VLD–currently down 9-10% when the general market is down only 0.5%. Bad sign for VLD. Its downtrend is vicious. Great technology, bad stock. Don’t confuse the two.

@Michael Murphy and all. Trying to figure out, besides the markets in general, what is going on so extreme with NVTA these days. One of my sons uses Guardant in that same category, with success, as I have mentioned to JGMD and others, but Guardant is down 56% in my portfolio, following the path of NVTA. Besides the markets and sectors, I’m wondering if outfits like CRSPR and Edit are becoming the vogue because they have the capacity to eliminate the middleman in a treatment question from a specialist, since they are widening their inventories of diseases. Or is it the issue of personal contact dynamics with a patient that still governs the final decision-making treatment??

Donald, I’ll give another example outside oncology to show why genetic testing is irrelevant to most people’s needs. One of the most common mutations in the general population is MTHFR. This is an enzyme that converts inactive folic acid to the active, physiologic form in the body, methyltetrahydrofolate (MTHF). 14% of the population has a double mutation, so they have markedly reduced ability to do the conversion. I am in that group. About 50% of the population have a moderate impairment. Would you believe that most of the prenatal vitamins I looked at have only folic acid included, but not MTHF? Long ago it was discovered that folic acid prevents neutral tube defects in the baby. If the mother doesn’t have that mutation, folic acid is fine. But a large fraction of mothers do have that mutation, so they should be taking a vitamin that contains MTHF instead of folic acid. Yet the ob/gyn’s are oblivious to that. Personally, I take a multivitamin called TWO PER DAY, from Life Extension, which has MTHF. I didn’t need to do that genetic testing for MTHFR, because I can just take that multivitamin to bypass my genetic defect.

So why do the testing for MTHFR? Even if someone does the testing, it is more important to test the blood for homocysteine. If homocysteine is normal, it doesn’t matter what the MTHFR test shows. This is because the phenotype expression of the genes is the bottom line most important thing to know, and it is far more relevant to the clinical situation than the genotype. Incidentally, the MTHFR test is available at Quest or many other national labs, so who needs NVTA?

Watch out for hype from financial analysts and promoters who don’t talk to doctors who know better.

JGMD, that is one heckuva nice mind-expanding class for MTHFR.
Thank you.

Today was a good day to buy ACXP at Blue LIght Special pricing. So I did. Mkt cap now $26M. Easy 10 bagger in 2023. Possibly 20-bagger!

Chris, thanks for commenting about ACXP. However, the small trial won’t finish enrolling until the end of 2022, maybe later. Until then, there will be no material news. Until Russia is defeated, all stocks are risky. I am bothered by the much greater decline in ACXP than the rest of the market.