Dear New World Investor:
Sometimes it’s more important to figure out where you are than try to forecast what’s going to happen. This is one of those times. Here are eight things you should be looking at.
1. Let’s start with inflation. As you know, the April Consumer Price Index was reported at +8.3% year-over-year. But the increase from March was at a +4.1% annual rate – down sharply from March’s over-15% from February. It is not enough to just have sustained high prices to have inflation. In order to have sustained inflation, prices have to keep rising at a rapid rate. That’s not happening, in part because people’s incomes can’t support ever-increasing prices everywhere, so they cut back.
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The year-over-year CPI rate of change is inflated by big jumps in June and October 2021 and March 2022, so it will remain high regardless of what the Fed does. They know it. They are looking at the monthly trend.
2. So is the bond market. US bond market expectations for inflation, as measured by the difference between inflation-protected yields and regular yields, continue to retreat. Investors should expect the Fed to be more dovish than currently expected.
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3. Now let’s look at inventories. When inventories increase faster than final sales, production of the excess goods actually adds to gross domestic product in that quarter. Normally, the excess inventory is sold off in the next quarter – inventories increase slower than final sales – and that is a drag on GDP growth in that quarter. Inventories and final sales usually balance out pretty quickly.
But with the supply chain problems in the recovery from the pandemic, companies went from “just-in-time” inventory to larger “just-in-case” inventories. Retailers were buying inventory as if December levels of demand would hold. They didn’t want to be out of stock and risk leaving sales on the table. The top-line trends were so strong, that the risk of over-buying seemed minimal.
Then, as we saw in the March quarter, consumers pulled back due to inflation, other uncertainties, and unfavorable weather that caused a slowdown in seasonal sales. Suddenly there is too much inventory. Markdowns are necessary to clear slower moving inventory, and new orders to manufacturers are put on hold. GDP weakens.
4. At the same time, supply chain problems are shrinking and congestion at West Coast ports has been easing.
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5. Reverse repos are overnight Fed operations that drain reserves from the financial system. They are used to peg the Fed funds rate at the target rate. The reverse repo facility just hit $2 trillion for the first time ever. Why? Because the market is seeking safe havens and the short end is awash in cash as other assets get sold.
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The Fed will need ever-growing reverse repos as the economy weakens to keep short-term rates pegged so this is another sign that the Fed rate hike cycle will reverse soon. There may be only one more 50 basis point (½ percentage point) increase and then cutting rates by end of the year.
Without these repos, bank rates would be lower. Ultimately, the market will force the Fed’s hand but the problem when they lower rates is that they didn’t get them high enough to really help on the way down again so we probably are going to see negative interest rates in 2023 or 2024.
6. As I’ve been chronicling every week, 2022 is breaking records as being one of the worst for investors and sentiment is understandably pessimistic. From Jason Goepfert’s SentimentEdge:
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7.. But for every seller there has to be a buyer – who is buying? Insiders. The ratio of companies with insiders buying to those selling has doubled to 0.95 (chart below). That’s a big deal because it is twice the average of 0.47 since 2016, according to data provided by The Washington Service. The only other time this ratio surpassed 1.0 since then was during the pandemic panic selling in March 2020. It came close (0.94) in December 2018, the worst month of that year’s selloff. Three months after that buy signal, the S&P 500 was up 16%.
By dollars amounts, the ratio of buying to selling has tripled to 0.29.This compares to an average of 0.10 since 2016. This ratio also hit 0.29 in the December 2018 selling climax. Three months later, Nasdaq was up over 20%.
The ratio of the number of insiders buying versus selling has more than doubled to 1.08. That’s a solid buy signal because this ratio has averaged 0.39 since 2016. The only other time it pierced 1.0 since 2016 was during the pandemic panic in March 2020, when it rose to 2.2.
Big block sales by insiders are down sharply. Leuthold Group Chief Investment Officer Doug Ramsey gauges insiders by measuring big transactions of either 100,000+ shares or $1+ million. He subtracts buys from sells to find “net sells” as a percentage of issues traded on the NYSE. This fell below 1% on May 20, boosting this measure to “maximum bullish,” he says.
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8.. And buybacks continue as companies continue to generate strong cash flow on healthy margins. S&P 500 companies have announced a record level of $429 billion of buybacks so far this year with an estimated 3x to 4x higher-than-average actual purchases in recent weeks – about $3 billion to $4 billion every day. Based on March quarter results, buybacks were up 45% year-over-year and 3% from the December quarter, led by Tech ($62 billion in the March quarter), Financials ($49 billion) and Healthcare ($39 billion).
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 added 4.0% since last Thursday, narrowly avoiding the “bear market” label, and is down 14.9% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 3.1% and is down 25.0% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 moved up 3.5% and is down 18.1% in 2022.
The fractal dimension is still falling towards the trend-is-over 30 level. A recovery to the 4195 area would just be a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the all-time high – we need to see more than that to believe the downturn is over, even if the lows are in.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
FB Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for June quarter real GDP growth fell to 1.8%, down from 2.4% on May 18, due mostly to weakness in private domestic investment growth, part of which was from housing. I still think we will avoid a technical recession until 2023, but things are weakening pretty quickly.
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Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 530,080,433 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 506,832,352 have run their course. Of those, 500,525,063 recovered and 6,307,289 died – a new low case fatality rate of 1.2%.
In the US, there have been 85,510,189 confirmed infections, of which 82,922,598 have run their course. Of those, 81,892,001 recovered and 1,030,597 died – the fifth week in a row at the all-time low case fatality rate of 1.2%.
Hospitalizations continue to increase from a low level.
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But daily deaths are down again to 263.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Monday, May 30
Markets closed – Memorial Day
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Tuesday, May 31
APTO – Aptose – 1:00pm – Annual meeting
Wednesday, June 1
AG – First Majestic – Through 6/2 – Swiss Mining Institute
Thursday, June 2
TGTX – TG Therapeutics – 3 presentations at the Consortium of Multiple Sclerosis Centers annual meeting
GLW – Corning – 10:00am – Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference
APTO – Aptose – 4:30pm – KOL Event & Corporate Update
GILD – Gilead – 4:30pm – Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference
PD – PagerDuty – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Friday, June 3
May payrolls – 8:30am – +320,000 expected
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
CohBar (CWBR – $0.19) made the basic corporate presentation at the HC Wainwright Global Investments Conference (ZOOM HERE). Their focus was entirely on CB-5138-3 for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, which they intend to take into human trials in the second half of 2023.
They are as trying to partner their former lead program, CB4211 for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and obesity. The Phase 1 trial had good results based on biomarkers of liver fat, but the company continues to pretend it also was successful against obesity, where it clearly failed. That makes me nervous – they should know better. CWBR is a Hold for the human trials of CB5138-3.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: March 2022 quarter
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.80) gave an interesting fireside presentation at the Wainwright conference (ZOOM HERE). Refreshingly, their focus is very strongly on patient outcomes and payer support. They are working with the FDA right now on creating a Phase 3 program that will be first-in-class. I strongly recommend this presentation if you’ve had doubts about investing in psilocybin therapy. CMPS is a Buy under $36 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2023
Graphite Bio‘s (GRPH – $2.26) new Chief Financial Officer gave a fireside presentation at the UBS Global Healthcare Conference (WEBCAST HERE and CORPORATE PRESENTATION HERE). Alethia Young was a well-respected and highly paid Wall Street biotech analyst, so this was an unusual career move. She is a sickle cell carrier and certainly has a personal interest in Graphite’s lead program, and it is illuminating to hear her differentiate Graphite’s approach from other companies’ programs.GRPH is a Buy under $26 for a $50 target in 2022, $100 in 2023, and then higher.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: 2023 or 2024
Biotech MegaShift
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $0.34) presented at the Wainwright conference (ZOOM HERE). The first topic was the Complete Response Letter. Management said there was no difference between the risks of vadadustat and darbepoetin, the control, so they are going into the FDA meeting to focus on the better benefits of vadadustat. Akebia has 90 days from the CRL to request a meeting, and the FDA then has 30 days to respond. AKBA is a Hold for the FDA meeting on vadadustat.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved.
Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA filed
Probable time of next FDA approval: March 29, 2022
Probable time of next financing: June quarter of 2022
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $5.05) presented at Wainwright (ZOOM HERE). Management’s focus has understandably shifted to ublituximab for multiple sclerosis, which should be approved on September 28. CEO Michael Weiss went into a lot of detail on how glyco-engineering improved their drug. They will be competing with Aubagio, a $2 billion-a-year drug.
TG had outstanding results on a secondary endpoint crucial to doctors: No Evidence of Disease Activity:
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Most MS patients are treated in 500 centers across the US, so it’s a concentrated market that’s attractive for a small company like TG. Their selling proposition is:
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They will do one oral and two poster presentations on data from the Phase 3 trials at next week’s Consortium of Multiple Sclerosis Centers (CMSC) annual meeting. Buy TGTX under $7 for a target price in a buyout of $25 or more.
Primary Risk: FDA turns the MS drug down.
Clinical stage of lead product: Filed for approval.
Probable time of next FDA approval: September 28, 2022
Probable time of next financing: December 2022 quarter
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $143.78) reportedly showed their upcoming mixed-reality headset to the company’s Board last week, indicating that development of the device has reached an advanced stage. I’m pretty sure it will not look like the leaked picture:
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According to BofA, App Store growth accelerated in April. They wrote: “App Store revenue, to date in F3Q22, grew to $2.6bn (+7% y/y through Apr 30th). These figures are based on data from SensorTower and show total downloads (iPhone + iPad) up 5% y/y to 3.2bn and average sell price (ASP) per download up 1.7% y/y. This compares to 6% y/y revenue growth in F2Q22, with Global App Store growth of 8% y/y (vs. 7% y/y in Mar) and China App Store growing +11% y/y vs. +6% y/y growth in Mar 2022. Maintain Buy on multiple tailwinds on both hardware and services (user growth, ASP, and increased penetration of installed base).”
Apple has been taking market share in smartphones for the last three or four quarters, so this probably isn’t an indicator of widespread phone or consumer electronics strength. The stock is down $40 from its all-time high so I am moving AAPL back to a Buy with a $150 limit for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $21.11) published a five-minute conversation with CEO Masayoshi Son. Ignore the “FY2021” – it is mislabeled.
SFTBY is a Buy under $30 for a first target of $60 in the next two years.
Other Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $12.46) acquired Glitch, a widely-used developer platform where more than 1.8 million software developers create and share web applications without having to run the infrastructure or manage the tools themselves.
The company bought back $235 million of its 0% 2026 convertible notes for about $176 million. Another $714 million remain outstanding. FSLY is a Buy up to $45 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $150+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
PagerDuty (PD – $24.14) established PagerDuty Japan in a partnership with Japan Cloud. PD already has some big Japanese customers like Yahoo Japan and NTT DoCoMo, and they see this as an important area to hit their $1 billion revenue target. PD is a Buy up to $40 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk:Digital operations management is a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.32) gave an excellent presentation at the HC Wainwright Global Investment conference (ZOOM HERE and INVESTOR PRESENTATION HERE). Brian Faith, the most underappreciated CEO in Silicon Valley, really tied together their revamped strategy: open source development tools, a wide variety of hardware and software intellectual property, and a fabless business model with numerous production partners.
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Not only have they booked $6 million in high-profit-margin licensing deals so far, but they are looking at tens of millions of potential deals this year.
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They are trying to hit $20 million in revenues this year, up more than 50% from 2021, and be pro forma profitable by midyear. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $60 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.66) customer BlackSky won a five-year, $85.5 million contract with the US National Reconnaissance Office. That probably leads to more launches for RKLB.
Varda Space, which specializes in space manufacturing, ordered three Photon rockets from Rocket Lab last year. They just ordered a fourth one to support their manufacturing of high-value products in space. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,850.10) had a nothing week, but held just above the big 38.2% retracement level at $1,842. That’s encouraging. I’d like to see a slow, steady move up over $1.900 to set up a breakout to new highs.
Miners & Related
First Majestic (AG – $8.31) sold their past-producing La Guitarra Silver Mine to Sierra Madre Gold & Silver (SM.V) for $35 million in stock plus a 2% net smelter royalty. They will own 47% of Sierra Madre. AG is a Buy under $15 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.60) and Ross Beatty’s Equinox Gold each sold a portfolio of metals royalties to Rosedale Resources, which will change its name to Sandbox Royalties. Sandstorm got $65 million comprising $32.1 million of Rosedale common stock, 34% of the company, and $32.9 million in a note convertible into Rosedale common. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $29,330.37) is trapped at $30,000 as holders figure out which of the various stablecoins actually are stable and which are frauds. Stick with bitcoin and ethereum via the Grayscale trusts.
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $114.26
Crude oil inventories are hardly moving even with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases. Crude stocks in the SPR are at their lowest since September 1987. Let’s hope we don’t suddenly need them for, you know, strategic reasons. Some say that the SPR releases have had no effect on oil prices. I think that’s nonsense. Oil would already be $150 a barrel if not for the SPR barrels.
There has been a major uptick in refinery throughput, but given their operational capacity, we only have perhaps another 500,000 barrels a day of throughput to go before maxing out. Refineries operated at 97.4% of capacity last week, the highest level for that period of the year in at least 30 years of historical data.
US nationwide average retail gasoline price hits a fresh all-time high of $4.60 per gallon, and I was wrong about the impact – it looks like we are seeing some demand destruction.
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ESG and other pressures have shut down 4.4 million barrels a day of refinery capacity since January 2020, with another 750,000 barrels a day set to close by the end of 2023.
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Got OIL? I’m raising the buy limit.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $36.32) buy limit is going from $24 to $36. Buy OIL under $36 for an $80+ target.
* * * * *
At least watch minutes 12 through 25. Four to five million barrels of oil about to come off market semi-permanently. Food prices are set to double again as well. I just signed up for a CSA so we don’t have to fight for food at the farmer’s market.
* * * * *
RIP Vangelis
* * * * *
Your reading A Deep Dive on U.S. Housing Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.96) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $0.94) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $7.80) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $2.26) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $1.75) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $3.50) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.95) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.88) – Buy under $12, target price $27, then $85
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $5.05) – Buy under $7, target price $25+
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $143.78) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $35.22) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Meta (FB – $191.63) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $64.47) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $21.11) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $42.31) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $12.46) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $24.14) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.32) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.87) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.66) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $2.26) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – $391,200 – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $22.02 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $28.05) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $35.86) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $17.70) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $31.06) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.93) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $8.31) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.51) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $6.60) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $36.48) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $29,330.37) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $19.04) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,809.92) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $12.17) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $29.61) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $33.24) – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $14.81) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $27.42) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.18) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.30) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $36.32) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.50) – Buy under $11; $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.22) – Hold for chronic cough results
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.06) – Hold for buyout
CohBar (CWBR – $0.19) – Hold for human trials of CB5138-3
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.34) – Hold for FDA meeting
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First!
Wow, second!
turd
MM, Why nothing about INO and their abstract from ASCO? The results looked great!!
The market doesn’t care about the best product. Pfizer and Moderna are well connected politically and have the market. You see how the best wound care product from ARTH gets nowhere since they don’t have political connections.
MM–ARTH is still plunging. You still haven’t faced reality if you think a buyout is a serious possibility. ARTH still makes your list of top choices–“ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery.” NO–it is not high value if they can’t make even a few sales with all the marketing execs on the payroll for a long time.
Just NWI subscribers trying to get out will plunge the stock to 2-3 cents or so. Why should any major like JNJ offer anything above the current 6 cents if they can pick up the pieces for even less than that? They had plenty of time to offer $1 for the whole company, so why now? Do you think TN is going to go begging for $1–JNJ will laugh and say screw you to him, take my 6 cents or go F yourself.
@Michael Murphy, another excellent Radar Report. Your travels around the issue of Inflation were really interesting. Do you think we will still be on the way up In September? The reason I ask that is related to the computation for COLAs for Social Security and Federal accounts, including military are due for announcement then. At these nosebleed levels, that would be a record two years in a row of high interest rate adjustments. With respect to oil, I would beg to differ a bit with you relative to SPR pumping depressing the price per BBL. Couple of things, there are some stories about estimated volumes throughout the SPR as being lower than calculated, which would tend to slow the rate of such an important disaster hedge. Thus, I think the real culprit is more and more politicization of the ESG. Only a few of the companies having been playing the game like Exxon. In addition, with Tesla being ousted for the ESG 500 index, Elon Musk has gotten a good deal of support for his comment that it is unacceptable measure any longer. The Biden gang keeps playing games with our U.S leases, saying more are out there, when they get hit with the pre-Trump regulation that are a pure stall.
That’s enough. With both crypto currencies seeming revival today, I would hope that could support a two-day rally Friday, rather than the roller coaster to nudge the yellow metal et al. and similars. GLTA
MM Can you explain the value of the Arth patents. It might help if you
Contacted Terry Norchi and ask him what his plan is, you have been a
Great supporter of company.
Great RR, MM. Thanks for the update on oil. And raising the buy limit. I have already done well on the note. On a side note, what is happening at APTO??
Good morning, all. I’ll be darned. The morning statistics about were pretty good, although income still lags prices. Looks pretty good for Mr. Market. And, in the WSJ this morning there is an editorial by former VP Mike Pence titled “Republicans Can Stop the ESG bias: with the quote “The progressive left is using it to advance goals it could never hope to achieve at the ballot box” He goes on to advocate the elimination of ESG. “Hey Mike, you’ve got a friend who sells Tesla’s” Me too.
Good News INO on glioblastoma Trial
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3843474-inovio-announces-positive-survival-results-from-trial-testing-glioblastoma-treatment?mailingid=27861107&messageid=2900&serial=27861107.2472&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=27861107.2472
Merely OK results–18 month and 32 month survival in cohorts A and B, respectively. With only surgical treatment, I see glioblastoma (GBM) patients survive 1-2 years. I had 1 patient who had several surgeries, took Temodar and survived 5 years. So far, I don’t see INO’s drug beating the chemotherapy standard of care, Temodar. My patient who survived 5 years would have done even better on a strict keto diet, but he stubbornly refused to stop his high carb diet. Carbs cause cancer cells to grow. A keto (very low carb) diet starves out cancer cells, but normal cells can live on a keto (high fat) diet. GBM results on a keto diet are better than for other cancers. But few MD’s and almost no oncologists personally sit down with their patients the way I do, and discuss the optimum diet. Oncologists relegate this important task to the nutritionists on staff at major oncology centers, who are still promoting the high complex carb diet, which is a politically correct diet due to political pull from grain manufacturers. This is a major reason why the US population has overall poor health, despite the wealth.
Don’t get caught up in stock promotion of INO and NVTA by financial analysts. Get your info from MD’s in practice who know better.
Agreed JGMD. In this case, the proper interpretation of the PR is that they seem to have met the design Phase 1 survival point, allowing it to proceed to Phase II which may have dose levels and survival extension indications beyond 32 months until statistically interesting points beyond say, 5 years, shows up (gotta consider exogenous factors in death that are not indicated by this multi- intervention design). Then we have Phase III, where an end point meets survivability enough to get this thing fully on the road, at indicated length and severity of the glioblastoma. It still is exciting to me as a potential design has the light on. Be well.
These NWI stocks tell interesting stories to sustain our interest, but as investments they are DEADLY. BTW, my GBM patient who survived 5 years had metabolic syndrome from his high carb diet. In metabolic syndrome, insulin levels are high. Insulin resistance is present, but insulin has several actions, such as controlling blood sugar which is beneficial, but fat deposition and promotion of cancer growth as a growth factor, which are bad. The insulin resistance leads to diabetes, but the elevated insulin levels lead to growth of cancer. My patient would have had an even greater benefit of the keto diet for his GBM prognosis than another patient with minimal insulin resistance. The medical establishment is deaf to this discussion. It is all about getting deals and connections to Big Pharma for patients, grant money for clinical trials, money to fund the next hospital wing, phony PR for community service to promote Big Pharma “good will” and so on.
I think there might be more to the Keto story. This is anecdotal obviously, but a good friend of mine was/is on a strict Keto/Paleo diet for the past 5-6 years and wore a Freestyle Libre glucose monitor for the couple years ( he got the script off label as he wasn’t diabetic).
This guy exercises like an animal and he will take 3-5 mile runs AFTER we play 2-3 hard sets of tennis.
A routine stress test led to a angiogram which showed nearly 90% blockage on the dreaded LAD. He was stented and sent home the same day.
Perhaps this blockage was developed before he switched to high protein, low carb, no worry about fat diet. I don’t know. Perhaps it would have reversed his blockage, also I don’t know.
Ask him what his blood sugars were before the keto diet and after. The most important readings are 2 hours after a meal. One of my diabetic patients reports a reading of 110 after a proper low carb meal, and over 150 after having more carbs. Everyone should be on a lower carb diet than the politically correct higher 60-70% carb diet promoted by certified dietitians. Although these dietitians correctly advise complex carbs vs simple carbs like sugar, ALL carbs must be restricted. I am slim without any insulin resistance, so I follow about 35-40% carbs at each meal. For someone moderately overweight, I advise about 25% carbs. For someone obese with lots of medical problems, near keto at 10% carbs. To avoid hunger, eat as much fat as necessary.
To actually reverse coronary blockages, pro-oxidant toxicities must be eliminated. The biggest one is dental–mercury fillings, root canals. Read the books by Thomas E. Levy, MD, JD, a cardiologist who worked with Hal Huggins, DDS who has exposed the corruption of the dental field. After dental toxicity has been removed, high dose vitamin C will neutralize toxicity and can reverse atherosclerotic lesions, along with other nutrients. The highest levels of vitamin C are obtained through Quicksilver Scientific’s liposomal C. I take 1 teaspoon (1000 mg) 2x daily, which achieves levels several times higher than the next best product, Ester C. Common vitamin C cannot achieve good levels, although it is better than nothing. Subscribe to Orthomolecular News Service, for references and studies of vitamin C.
Too much hyperintense exercise can generate pro-oxidant effects, detrimental to CV health. Vigorous tennis is enough at one time. Intermittent burst running is good at another time, weight lifting another, etc.
Mike, are you sure we need to hold arch. What a shame!
ARTH–Here’s the latest insight from YMB on why this company is a complete failure.
I believe @Done is correct. This is from the “Company Profile” on their web sie.
“1. AC5-G, AC5-V, and AC5 Surgical Hemostat are currently investigational devices limited by law to investigational use.”
Translation: No meaningful sales now or anytime soon.
L
So the ultimate villain is–laws and regulations. We all know that the various types of AC5 are the best products of their kind. KOL’s were convincing in their presentations. But the company couldn’t translate this into sales because nobody wanted to take the legal liability for uncertified/investigational uses. Look–there are many things in medicine that are understood by knowledgable doctors, but are not accepted by the establishment. Examples are tests for homocysteine, methylmalonic acid as indicators of functional B12 deficiency. Insurance calls these tests “investigational” which is a term they use because they don’t want to pay for them. No, they are not “investigational” because the REAL biochemical science is the TRUTH, not the excuses made by insurance companies.
TN probably didn’t have the connections to get fast certifications for the AC5 variants, even though the original AC5 got FDA approval long ago. He knew that the FDA would require trials for any of the variants to get approvals. (I doubt there is any meaningful difference between any of the variants and the original product. The difference is probably in name only, but the FDA would consider it a new product just so it could get employment for its reviewers, in a make-work scheme). This was out of the question for this poorly funded company, so TN took the relatively small funds in this company to pay his own salary for as long as possible. His time is up. No Big Pharma will pay $1 per share, or even any tiny fraction of it.
Give up on nearly all biotech investing. They are all overwhelming garbage, with new garbage discovered the longer you are involved. All the time wasted on DD for what will turn out to be garbage. No analyst is familiar with all the pitfalls and has any clue about what will be successful in the competitive marketplace.
This is also why no Big Pharma made an offer for ARTH. Why would they pay anything for an investigational product which they couldn’t market to generate the huge numbers of sales they would require?
MM originally recommended ARTH because he believed that as a device, AC5 could more easily and quickly get approved than a drug. But the device turned out to have a devilish twist, as the renamed device variants are now only investigational.
@JGMD, Talk about blood tests of use,. My inside info from an institution in Boston is the test that indicates the level of sticky stuff in human blood is hot stuff for cardio vascular health and an intervention design (pill maybe) will become the holy grail of a major cure, including brain access. And a cosmetic company I know, whose founder had a serious skin burn issue many years ago is now beginning to plan marketing of a skin rejuvenator that will incorporate a similar to what we know as the ingredient family of AC5. Just a rumor,
MM, whatever happened to arch internal surgery studies &fda approval.. I always thought their internal was more valuable than external. Are you basing your hold on that assumption, and why did that not happen. I always thought that stopping internal bleeding and healing was where arch would shine.
ARTH ran out of money. Nobody will fund the important internal trial, although AC5-G is like an internal use. MM should have been alert to the fact that the AC5 variants like AC5-G are considered investigational by the company itself. Why do we have to get this info from a YMB poster? How long has this been known? We could have gotten out with a 60% loss, instead of a 90+% loss now.
SNAP took a deep dive last week to $12.00 and change. And overall it’s down some 86 ??? Percent. Does anyone hold it? Or bought it last week? What’s the future going forward? I read that it’s NOT just a social media stock. It has a new technology that allows shoppers to try on clothes at a shopping site on their body before buying. Could be a huge home run and chase up the stock. Any comments?? Thanks
F’ing garbage nonsense. Shirts don’t have to fit tightly, so it is safe to buy online without the BS fitting technology. Pants are more critical, so they should be tried on in the old fashioned manner. Shoes MUST be tried on in the store. I have semi-flat arches, so most shoes are uncomfortable after a brief walk in the store. Technology cannot substitute for what I feel on my body.
There are much safer ways to make money without losing your shirt (pun intended).
TGTX – looks like FDA moved the 9/28/22 approval date out to 12/28/22 to review additional data the company provided. TGTX seems to be saying it’s no big deal, but stock down 12%
Sounds suspicious to me. The CEO is a smooth talker, untrustworthy. When did the company provide the additional data, and in response to what specific FDA concerns from what date? Why does the FDA need another 3 months to review this additional data? It could be done in a day. The CEO needs to provide answers. He won’t give them. This smells rotten–the stock lost almost 15% at the close. Good chance of a CRL on 12/28/22–the death of this company. I was considering buying more to recoup every single NWI stock loss, but not now.
TGTX down another 10% today, much worse than the general market. The CEO is a POS. Another NWI wipeout in the making, the norm for NWI.
Sure is nvta down another 9 precent unbelievable how bad these picks have become
NWI biotechs have declined MUCH more than biotech indices. They must be avoided, or shorted if you are able, to prevent destruction of health and wealth from the buy and hold strategy of NWI. NOBODY can predict whether a good idea will succeed in the marketplace. That is exacerbated by politically aided sabotage from the competition. This goes back centuries, even to the beginnings of man.
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Seeking Alpha Article sees $3000-$3500 in a short time. This also is and Add for Gold Edge which I do not know. Interesting read.
Gold Could Increase To $3,000-$3,500 In A Short Period Of Time | Seeking Alpha
Is the Coast Guard paratis for a woman in charge?
You might find it interesting that there are Coast Guard units service in the Gulf area – and I mean half the world away – not our coasts.
They carry smaller weapons and ca go into river areas too. So if woman can serve in the Navy today, the same.
Their ships are made near the Mississippi river by one that makes our Nuclear Subs and Carriers. Wny there is not way the big ships could get out of the Mississippi even if they birthplace would handle such a large ship.
Good analysis. But he doesn’t mention other inflation hedges like cryptocurrencies which have soared, leaving gold behind. Will the market realize that only gold/silver are tangible assets, not cryptos which are only mathematical abstractions representing nothing tangible?
I agree with JGMD’s take on the unproductive NWI strategy of “buy and hold (for a long time)”. For instance, why not sell NVTA when it was in the $40 to $60 range, wait until it corrected, and then perhaps buy it again? As we all know, biotech has been on a downtrend/bear market for over a year. It is hard to go against the trend when considering investing in individual companies. However, investing on a biotech index, either a double or triple leveraged bull index, becomes simply a contrarian bet that should materialize over a relatively short time period (certainly not “hold for a long time”.) Along those lines it may be worth considering either or all of the following: BIB, XBI, LABU.
I saw some interesting news on NYMX, a former NWI holding. The FDA told the company they would need 6 years of long-term safety data for their drug – even though the FDA had not requested 6 years of data in any previous communication. I would doubt the company has 6 years of cash – so the stock dropped 65%.
It does make me think that the FDA is really set up to kill these small biotechs and worries me regarding TGTX and others.
Agree. The FDA is THE biggest risk factor in bio investing, especially when the science is great. That’s the only way to get rejected for approval–political corruption.
The new Radar Report for 6.2.22 is posted.