Dear New World Investor:
None of our stocks reported earnings this week and there hasn’t been a lot of news, so I thought I’d have a discussion with you about the direction I’d like to take New World Investor. I still think we are entering a 15-year upcycle that will transform our country and the world, with many opportunities to invest and build wealth. I spent much of the holiday weekend thinking about how my investment career and skill set should match that opportunity.
First, let’s talk about biotech. I’ve been studying biotechnology for over 25 years and, until recently, I’ve always been pretty good at identifying companies with a drug that can get FDA approval. I like reading clinical trial results and thinking about trial design issues and the like. I focused on important programs that could change the way medicine is practiced. When those companies were out of favor with Wall Street and the stocks were cheap, the risk/reward looked very attractive and I recommended them.
What I’ve not been good at is selling them after they get approval, whether they just doubled or tripled, or really shot up, like Dendreon. So some years ago I thought if I applied my stock-picking skills to a group of early-stage biotechs and then changed my sell discipline, we could cash in on the ongoing biotech revolution.
But it’s been increasingly difficult to pick biotech stocks for three reasons. First, for some reason drugs that seemed very approvable after Phase 1 or 2 results have been failing in later trials. That might be because companies are targeting very narrow niches and rare diseases, thinking it will be easier to get approval.
Second, the FDA has become increasingly unpredictable and erratic, especially when a new drug threatens a Big Pharma drug. The revolving door problem of FDA reviewers leaving the Agency to take a cushy job at Big Pharma started decades ago, but it seems to have gotten way worse since 2000.
Third, the FDA just seems overwhelmed with their workload, and issuing a Complete Response Letter is a way to postpone a decision.
Here’s the biotech report card so far:
AGNPF Algernon Pharmaceuticals was recommended because they had an unusual way to inexpensively create value with a drug: Take an already-approved drug (therefore no safety issues), repurpose it, do a Phase 2 trial to demonstrate efficacy, and license it. All the data says ifenprodil will be effective against chronic cough.
But I didn’t give enough weight to two factors: they have almost no money, so even bootstrapping drug development is difficult, and the payoff isn’t big enough. Ifenprodil is not going to change the way medicine is practiced. I think it will work, but then they have to license it and the payoff probably wasn’t worth the risk inherent in any biotech, much less ones that had to run a clinical trial during the pandemic. Meanwhile, a reverse split looms (bad) offset by a Nasdaq uplisting (good). So it’s a reasonable hold. My Mistake: Recommending a drug too early that won’t have a dramatic effect.
AKBA Akebia Biotherapeutics was recommended when it was Keryx, before the merger. I thought Keryx’ Auryxia was a much better drug than calcium binders to reduce phosphate levels in dialysis patients with chronic kidney disease, and it is. But it’s taking much longer to gain significant market share than I expected.
When Akebia acquired Keryx I looked at vadadustat and realized it is a way better drug than Amgen’s Aranesp (darbepoetin). Its approval in Japan, which is even more focused on safety than our FDA, just convinced me to stay the course. I understand subscriber JGMD’s concern about the imbalance in the Phase 3 cardiovascular data between the drug and control groups, but I thought that would not cause the FDA to turn them down.
So I was surprised when they got the devastating Complete Response Letter at the end of March. We won’t know until the forthcoming meeting what the reason was, but I fear the real reason was that Akebia was trying to knock off Aranesp. There is an insidious revolving door between the FDA and the industry it regulates. It must be very tempting to do a solid for Amgen in the expectation of a cushy job offer in a year or two. My Mistake: Maybe misreading the safety data, maybe not paying enough attention to the threat to a Big Pharma. We’ll know more after the meeting.
ATRS Antares Pharma was recommended because they have a platform technology – autoinjectors – that can be applied to improve or prolong the life of numerous products. I thought they would just keep growing and growing as they layered in one product after another, and they have. The Pfizer product announcement coming later this year will be the newest and biggest success story, but we won’t enjoy it because Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) bought Antares out on May 24.
My Mistakes: First, misjudging how long it would take them to get to critical mass; and, second, that management would sell out too soon.
APTO Aptose Biosciences had APTO-253, a drug that causes apoptosis (cell death) in any cancer cell, plus a CEO who is a great drug developer. I recommended it even before the Phase 1 trial was done, and in that trial it became obvious that the animal efficacy data didn’t translate to humans. OK, but the CEO made what appeared to be a great in-licensing deal of CG-806 and put it into a Phase 1 trial. So I stuck with the stock.
CG-806 did very well as they escalated doses but then ran into a similar problem – they can’t get enough drug to the patients. OK, but he then in-licensed another oncology drug that already is in human trials, HM43239, for the same indication as CG-806. So at this point they’ve given up on APTO-253 and are trying to partner it, they are reformulating CG-806 (see below), and they are focused on HM43239. The saving grace here is that the CEO knows when to pivot to keep the company alive. My Mistake: I focused on the goal – curing cancer – instead of the stats on the drug. I should have waited for Phase 1/2 results. Staying in APTO is a bet on Bill Rice. I still think that’s a good bet, but I’d rather bet on the developer and the drug.
ARTH Arch Therapeutics has been the biggest disappointment of my career. I realized very early this was a technology that would change the way medicine was practiced and that they could get FDA approval on a shoestring. They did, even though the FDA slowed them down (unnecessarily) for a year, their European manufacturer screwed up the EMA filing (another wasted year), and Norchi changed manufacturers (yet another year, and his fault).
They spent 2020 seeding Key Opinion Leaders with free AC5 to develop a buzz and elicit a takeover bid. That didn’t work, so after final marketing approval in March 2021 they’ve been trying to get some market traction inexpensively through the VA, where they don’t have a payer problem, but to no avail. So, as I wrote two weeks ago: “My guess is that CEO Terry Norchi is about to decide – or has already decided – that his gamble in leaving a million dollar a year job at Putnam to start Arch 10 years ago has failed. His equity position has been diluted by more than 50% and Arch finished the quarter with only $54,405 in cash and over $1.2 million in accounts payable. They probably are funding the company with At-The-Market stock sales. He should be able to get $1 to $2 a share for the 300 million shares of stock outstanding from either Johnson & Johnson or Baxter, whichever one wants to dominate the high-end wound care market. So I am with great sadness moving ARTH to a Hold for a buyout.” My Mistake: Thinking that if Norchi got approval for a much better mousetrap, the world would beat a path to his door. Nope. And there was no viable Plan B.
BIOC Biocept was recommended because they have the best liquid biopsy technology and now the only one that works on cerebrospinal fluid. But the company would have died if they hadn’t started testing for COVID-19 infections. That pivot was very well executed, and we’d still be in the stock except that they appointed a Chief Compliance Officer and then a few weeks later fired both the CEO and the CFO. I don’t know what happened, but I do know we don’t want to own the stock when the world finds out what happened, so I recommended sale. My Mistake: Thinking having the best technology in a very crowded space would make a difference. Their financial management was weak and almost killed the company.
BLPH Bellerophon Therapeutics I recommended because it was a spin-out from Ikaria that simply has to put Ikaria’s hospital-based nitric oxide treatment into a portable device that can get FDA approval. It has low fundamental risk with a potentially high reward. Payers and doctors would love to see hospitalized patients sent home. Mallinckrodt, which bought Ikaria, probably will buy Bellerophon, too. My Mistake: I think Bellerophon will be a winner, but I recommended it too early.
CWBR CohBar is another case of great, transformative technology that I recommended before there were Phase 1 results. Although the company persists in saying the CB4211 Phase 1 trial was a success, that is only partially true. Now they are trying to partner that drug and move another drug into Phase 1, with the stock way under $1 and a reverse split inevitable. I still think mitochondria DNA is a gigantic opportunity and their patent position is superb, but My Mistake – again – was recommending it too early, before there were strong clinical results.
CMPS Compass Pathways is pioneering psilocybin therapy for treatment-resistant depression. It’s a very big market and I think their approach of combing a drug with therapy/support will be successful. They are a driven management team. My Mistake, if there is one, is again recommending the stock too early. The first trial succeeded, yet we could have bought the stock cheaper after having the data than when I took the unnecessary risk of recommending it before the data. In part, this is due to the biotech bear market, but the truth is there usually are opportunities to buy biotech stocks at a discount even after a successful trial but before FDA approval.
GRPH Graphite Bio is a good example of that. I have no doubt their second-generation gene repair technology is far ahead of others and the sickle cell trial will succeed. But I could have waited until the results were imminent or even published to recommend the stock. It’s going to be a huge winner, but My Mistake was recommending it too early.
INO Inovio was not recommended for its vaccine. I recommended it before the pandemic because it has a powerful antiviral and vaccine technology platform with numerous successful clinical trials. When the stock took off in the vaccine enthusiasm, My Mistake was not recommending sale. As soon as Trump appointed a Moderna director to run Operation Warp Speed, I worried that he would find a way for Moderna to win and everyone else to lose. As he did. JNJ and Pfizer were too big to block, and Astra Zeneca imploded, but Novavax, Inovio, and many other small companies somehow never made it to the finish line.
So the MNRA “vaccines” that don’t prevent infection because they don’t elicit a long-lasting T-cell response (but don’t call them “drugs” because patients can’t sue for injury from a vaccine, but they can from a drug) are approved. But as the World Health Organization has figured out, INO-4800 can be given as a booster after any of the other “vaccines” and actually stops infections, without the ridiculously low temperature requirements.
NVTA Invitae is my favorite biotech recommendation right now. I understand subscriber JGMD’s position that doctors don’t use much genetic information today. But I see Invitae’s 60+ pharma partners developing precision drugs for particular genetic profiles, and believe we will see a tsunami of approvals over the next few years.
Wall Street, led by Ophir Gottlieb of Capital Market Laboratories, sold the stock because management’s strategy was rapid revenue growth to get market share while running losses that had to be funded by stock offerings. Now that management has decided to cut costs and focus on the bottom line, they still hate the stock. That’s a great opportunity. Honestly, I don’t see My Mistake here. I think Gottlieb was wrong about the prior strategy – the best way to become the Amazon of genetic testing is to have the most tests at the lowest price delivered in a way that helps the most doctors. The new strategy has a risk of Invitae ending up with one or two powerful competitors, but we’ll still make a bundle on the stock. I’ve been buying it from $14 all the way down.
MDNA Medicenna is another “Great Technology–Too Early” story. My Mistake: I should have waited until they found a partner for MDNA55, which looks like an excellent brain cancer drug. MDNA11 is a truly superior interleukin-2 drug and we will get clinical updates throughout this year.
SCYX ScyNexis was recommended because they have the first new antifungal in over 20 years and the only one that actually kills the fungus instead of just stopping it from getting worse. There are many use cases for the ibrexafungerp technology and over time ScyNexis can grow into a big company. As subscriber RGMD points out, Brexafemme sales are not strong (although they are growing). It will take the recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis approval later this year followed by the hospital approvals in 2024 and thereafter to turn this into a big winner. My Mistake: Aside from recommending SCYX into a biotech bear market, I’m happy so far.
TGTX TG Therapeutics was recommended for their multiple sclerosis program, which was as successful as I expected and will get approval this year. The FDA just pushed their PDUFA date from September 28 to December 28 “to allow time to review a submission provided by the Company in response to an FDA information request, which the FDA deemed a major amendment. The submission comprised an integration and summary of certain clinical information that was previously provided to the FDA by the Company.”
CEO Michael Weiss said: “While we are disappointed with the extension of our PDUFA goal date for ublituximab, a delay of this duration is not unprecedented, with both of the currently marketed CD20s in MS experiencing a similar 3-month PDUFA extension prior to approval. As we were targeting a launch for late this year or early next, we do not believe this will impact our overall launch plans for ublituximab in RMS.”
I think we’re OK here. My Mistake was not selling the stock when it ran up after their cancer drug approvals, which I had little interest in. But I didn’t want to miss the MS drug impact and was afraid it wouldn’t come back down far enough to give us a graceful re-entry point. Wrong.
I’ve gone through this at length – thank you for your patience! – because I think I’m not going to recommend any more development-stage biotechs until they have lots of clinical trial results (like Inovio) and are selling for peanuts (like Inovio). I’m also going to sell any recommendation that meets those criteria after they get approval. We may even buy some back if they have a strong launch and get cheap again.
The other force driving this pivot is the current bear market in tech. I see lots of potentially great recommendations that are 80%+ off their highs. Peloton (PTON), no. But Palantir (PLTR)? Snap (SNAP)? Roku (ROKU)? It’s a target-rich environment we haven’t seen for a long time. I like buying good, big tech companies at temporarily depressed prices – Apple at $27.25, Corning at $28.89, Meta at $159.34. Perhaps it’s time for Intel (INTC) again. You should expect a lot more tech recommendations going forward.
I am interested in your comments on this change in direction.
Market Outlook
On May 23, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said: “Credit looks really good, we’ve never seen it this good.”
Yesterday, Jamie Dimon said: “Brace for an economic hurricane. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there coming our way.” Somebody had a bad week!
And the stock market tanked for a few hours, then roared right back today. It’s obvious to everyone – well, excluding the Fed – that the economy and inflation are slowing rapidly. The April increase in the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, the personal consumption price index, was the smallest since November 2020. The year-over-year increase slowed to 6.3% in April from a 40-year high of 6.6% in March and was the first decline in a year and a half. The core rate that excludes food and energy was 4.9%.
The Fed staff now is projecting 4.3% in 2022, 2.5% in 2023, and 2.1% in 2024 “as supply-demand imbalances in the economy are reduced by slowing aggregate demand and an anticipated easing of supply constraints.”
Meanwhile, the revised March quarter real GDP showed a contraction of 1.5% compared with the expectation for a 1.3% decline and the advance reading of a 1.4% drop. When you consider the original estimate was for a 1% gain, the revision is even worse.
The Atlanta Fed’s June quarter GDP forecast fell to +1.3% on weakness in both real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment. We aren’t looking at the “two down quarters = recession” scenario yet, but it’s getting uncomfortable.
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The bear market rally – or OMG is it a new bull market? – rolls on. The S&P 500 added 2.9% since last Thursday and now is down only 12.4% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 4.9% but is down 21.3% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 booked a 3.2% gain and is down 15.5% in 2022.
Sentiment still is very negative. The BofA Bull and Bear Indicator hit 0.6, one of the lowest prints on record.
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The fractal dimension downtrend has stopped for now and will quickly return to consolidation mode if the rally continues. As I wrote last week, a recovery to the 4195 area would just be a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the all-time high – we need to see more than that to believe the downturn is over, even if the lows are in.
Top 5
Changes this week: Long-Term, replaced ARTH and CWBR with RKLB and VLD
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
FB (META after 6/8) Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 533,812,361 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 511,060,059 have run their course. Of those, 504,743,489 recovered and 6,316,570 died – matching last week’s new low case fatality rate of 1.2%
In the US, there have been 86,172,391 confirmed infections, of which 83,350,869 have run their course. Of those, 82,318,399 recovered and 1,032,470 died – the sixth week in a row at the all-time low case fatality rate of 1.2%.
The moving average case fatality rate, measuring recent outcomes, is back to the all-time low at 0.29%.
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Still a lot of people in the hospital, though.
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But daily deaths continue to fall and hit 203 yesterday.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, June 3
May payrolls report – 8:30am – +325,000 expected. Market probably rallies on a shortfall (easier Fed) or falls on a beat (tougher Fed)
Monday, June 6
AAPL – Apple – 1:00pm – Worldwide Developer’s Conference
VLD – Velo3D – 1:40pm – William Blair Growth Stock Conference
INO – Inovio – 1:42pm – American Society of Clinical Oncology meeting
Tuesday, June 7
NVTA – Invitae – 9:40am – William Blair Growth Stock Conference
VLD – Velo3D – 1:15pm – Stifel Cross Sector Insight Conference
Wednesday, June 8
GILD – Gilead – 11:00am – Jefferies Healthcare Conference
INO – Inovio – 1:00pm – Jefferies Healthcare Conference
GRPH – Graphite Bio – 4:00pm – Jefferies Healthcare Conference
VLD – Velo3D – 4:00pm – Annual meeting
Thursday, June 9
GRPH – Graphite Bio – Through 6/12 – European Hematology Association
Short Interest – After the close
Friday, June 10
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am – +8.2% expected; core CPI +5.9% expected. Market probably rallies on lower numbers (easier Fed) or falls on higher (tougher Fed)
APTO – Aptose – 5:30pm – European Hematology Association presentations
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.01) held their Key Opinion Leader event this afternoon (ZOOM HERE) as a preview of the European Hematology Association presentations coming on June 10. I was most interested in the new third generation (G3) formulation of lux, which has been administered to the first patients.
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The initial data looks good. A much smaller dose of G3, 50 milligrams, produces almost as much plasma concentration as 900 milligrams of the G1 formulation. Because lux is remarkably side-effect free, they should be able to substantially increase the G3 dose and produce much higher plasma concentration and beneficial effects than G1.
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Their next steps are to evaluate higher doses and multiple doses. Wall Street won’t like this cautious approach, but I’d rather get an approvable drug than see them try a Hail Mary pass and lose the company. APTO is a Buy under $4 for a $45 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1a
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: late 2022 or early 2023
Inovio (INO – $1.80) announced a successful Phase 1/2 trial of INO-5401 and INO-9012 in combination with the PD-1 inhibitor Libtayo (cemiplimab) in the treatment of newly diagnosed glioblastoma (brain cancer), including encouraging median overall survival data. The data will be presented at the big American Society of Clinical Oncology meeting on Monday. INO is a Buy under $21 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2022
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $151.21) is rumored to have asked suppliers to assemble about 220 million iPhones this year, flat with 2021 and lower than the ~240 million Wall Street expects. I view this as management being conservative so they don’t get stuck with too much inventory before the major update to the iPhone 14 expected in September. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Meta Platforms (FB – $198.86) will change its symbol to META next Thursday, June 9. Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg is resigning after 14 years. I think that’s a neutral to good thing, although I really want to see someone very competent replace her. FB is a Buy under $320 for a $400 target in 2022 or 2023.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.77) had its credit outlook cut to “negative” from “stable” on Tuesday by ratings agency Moody’s Japan, which cited a decline in the value of its portfolio and estimated the tech investor’s leverage had risen. That did not sit well with Masa, who wrote: Softbank “has neither provided any information to Moody’s nor has received any requests for information or inquiries from the company for more than two years since we withdrew our request for a rating on March 25, 2020. Moody’s opinion is therefore based on their subjective assumptions and hypotheses with no reasonable basis for support.” Zing! SFTBY is a Buy under $30 for a first target of $60 in the next two years.
Other Tech
PagerDuty (PD – $27.43) reported March quarter results after the close today and I’ll have a full report next week. It looked good at first glance. Revenues were up 34.3% from last year to $85.4 million, ahead of the $83.0 million consensus estimate. The pro forma loss of four cents a share was half of the eight-cent loss expected. The stock is up about $1 in after-hours trading. PD is a Buy up to $40 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk:Digital operations management is a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.38) got a new $3.0 million eFPGA contract, its largest ever. These carry very high profit margins and are an important driver of the company’s return to profitability. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $60 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.92) will launch the Capstone project to the moon sometime after June 13, marking the first time they’ve gone past low earth orbit projects. I added RKLB to the long-term Top 5.
RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,873.60) booked its third up week, following four sharply down weeks. This stealth rally just shows as more consolidation on the fractal chart, but that beats a downtrend. There’s still plenty of energy to get to new all-time highs.
Miners & Related
First Majestic (AG – $9.09) hit 8.39 grams per tonne of gold over 29.7 meters in step-out drilling at the Jerritt Canyon mine. They also got a Forest Service permit to drill 42,976 acres near Jerritt Canyon, including 500 acres of new roads and up to 1,100 drill pads. They start drilling in July. AG is a Buy under $15 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $7.02) will benefit from mining giant Gold Field’s takeover of Yamana Gold because SAND has a large streaming contract on some of Yamana’s production. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $30,299.98) rose the most in two weeks, trading above $30,000 after China said it will ease its COVID-19 curbs.
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Some of the pressure on bitcoin comes from shortsellers targeting the $750 million ProShares Bitcoin Strategy Exchange-Traded Fund (BITO). Short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding is nearly 11%, close to the highest since the fund’s October 2021 inception. Also, the fund’s ratio of open interest in bearish put contracts to call contract open interest has soared since mid-April to all-time highs. This is hot money that will rush to cover when bitcoin starts its inevitable uptrend, adding to the buying pressure.
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. Chinese stocks just had their longest winning run in a year as the virus curbs were eased. Xi Jinping’s war on Chinese tech stocks, which has to be one of the most moronic self-inflicted wounds of all time, should be history. This looks like an excellent time to move a small percentage of your portfolio out of the US.
The EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $31.99) is a Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
The KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $35.04) can be bought under $34 for a three- to five-year hold.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
The Morgan Stanley China A-Share Closed-End Fund (CAF – $15.38) sells at a discount to net asset value and is a Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
The KraneShares CSI China Internet Exchange-Traded Fund (KWEB – $30.17) is a steal after Xi’s carnage. KWEB is a buy under $50 for a double over the next three years.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.22) said the Memorial Day holiday was the Marijuana Weekend in New Jersey. And Rhode Island just became the 19th state to legalize adult-use, with retail sales set to launch December 1. ACRDF is a buy under $4.49 for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Canopy Growth does not acquire the company.
Oil – $117.52! (Better release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve…oh, wait…)
Oil dipped briefly on rumors that OPEC was considering letting Russia off the hook for their production deal, which would allow OPEC members to step in and produce more oil. This sanction-free oil theoretically would help reduce supply problems for countries struggling to replace Russian oil.
The trouble with that theory is that while OPEC keeps raising output targets, their monthly compliance rate is terrible. Eight of the biggest OPEC-10 members under-produced their allowed quota in May, and we’re supposed to be spooked by a headline about a potential opening of the floodgates? Really?
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Underproduction means disappointing exports, which now are down for the year to date:
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The European Union plans to ban 90% of Russian crude by the end of 2022 – they are so screwed. In the US, the White House is now asking about restarting refineries closed over the last few years. Sorry, those are costly projects that need to see years of demand to pay off – not anti-fossil fuel actions. Maybe somebody should have thought about that before putting a petulant Scandinavian teenager in charge of global energy policy.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy the under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $37.55) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.
* * * * *
RIP Ronnie Hawkins – “The Hawk”
* * * * *
Your keeping up with the Ukraine War Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.01) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.06) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $8.85) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $2.28) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $1.80) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $3.56) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.93) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.13) – Buy under $12, target price $27, then $85
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $4.10) – Buy under $7, target price $25+
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $151.21) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $36.52) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Meta (FB – $198.86) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $63.46) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.77) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $43.84) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $13.01) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $27.43) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $7.38) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.92) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.92) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $2.38) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – $391,200 – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $22.36 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $29.22) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $37.08) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $17.89) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $32.49) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.26) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $9.09) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.55) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $7.02) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $39.90) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $30,299.98) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $19.95) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,823.68) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $12.05) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $31.99) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $35.04) – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $15.38) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $30.17) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.22) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.35) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $37.55) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.73) – Buy under $11; $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $4.35) – Hold for chronic cough results
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.36) – Hold for FDA meeting
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.05) – Hold for buyout
CohBar (CWBR – $0.20) – Hold for human trials of CB5138-3
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All I read was .. I was wrong. Finally.
My pick .. GOOG, it will run hard into the split. This is a TRADE ONLY.
2nd
The danger with these and many similar stocks is that any gain is a short-term bounce and that they are no longer market leaders– they are exhausted, without new technology, customers, etc.
Peloton (PTON), no. But Palantir (PLTR)? Snap (SNAP)? Roku (ROKU)?
Disagree with SNAP. It’s down 86 percent BEFORE the 40 percent fallout last week. It’s a long term situation and it has a new revenue stream.
Agree.
MM–you are still WAY OFF BASE on your biotech approach. I don’t know where to begin.
ARTH–you still think a Big Pharma will step up and offer $1/share in a buyout. I gave up the hopium and sold off my entire position the last 2 days, after I read from a YMB poster that the company itself stated that the AC5 variants (all with excellent case histories from KOL’s) are only investigational. Therefore, no significant sales are going to occur merely from investigational use. No Big Pharma company is going to spend any amount of money marketing investigational agents. Yet you still cling to the hopium that we shareholders are going to get $1/share. From today’s 5 cents, that is a 20 fold gain, which any of us would be glad to take. Get this straight–the patents or license from MIT are worthless without sales. Why are you asleep when I have to get the crucial info from a stranger on a YMB?
With the other companies, you own up to only ONE mistake for each company. The REALITY is there are many more mistakes than you realize. The science for most of these companies is mediocre, and management is medically and fiscally incompetent. You don’t have any expertise in predicting what companies are going to get approvals or if approved, whether they will get off the ground with sales and make a profit. Your biotech track record is many times worse than the plunge in the biotech indices, which proves my points. Your biotech knowledge is way below that of practicing physicians in the know. Even they and I cannot predict which companies are going to succeed. Biotech investing requires a team of seasoned experts. You can’t afford to hire this select club.
Even teams of biotech experts are powerless to overcome a politically capricious FDA. DO NOT MAKE ANY MORE BIOTECH RECOS, and GET OUT OF THE FIELD. However, your own health depends on pursuing holistic alternatives, so that is worthwhile to research. Most insightful subscribers have either left NWI or don’t bother commenting any more. Most subscribers don’t trust your pronouncements on these low quality stocks, and are ignoring your advice.
Your strengths are general market analysis with fractals. The best use of your time would be that, plus returning to what established your reputation–profitable companies in tech, not biotech. Right now, we could use your fractal analysis to time the market, using simple vehicles like SPY, etc. You can return to your glory days by recommending quality tech names at what you think is the opportune time.
As you know, AC5 is approved for wounds like diabetic foot ulcers and pressure sores. There are many “investigational” applications, but those have nothing to do with sales of AC5.
The whole point of the post was that I’m not going to recommend development-stage biotechs, in part because even people I know who are smarter than me (MD PhD) were totally wrong on the science.
Your 2nd paragraph is wise and correct. If smart MD’s and PhD’s are totally wrong on the science, that tells us that development-stage bios are not smart investments for anyone at any age. If the original approved AC5 had almost no sales, it would be nice to know why. The obvious answer is poor marketing, but there may be some smart Big Pharma scientist who knows things that were never divulged to investors, indicating that AC5 wasn’t the greatest thing since sliced bread after all.
An established bio company with products and earnings can be analyzed just like other companies. Investing risk for all companies centers on lack of insider knowledge.
Repost–
“JGMD
Reply to ROGERinSEATTLE
June 2, 2022 11:08 pm
Agree. The FDA is THE biggest risk factor in bio investing, especially when the science is great. That’s the only way to get rejected for approval–political corruption.”
Sorry MM
Too little
Too late
Quit beating yourself up. There are plenty of people who will do that job for you. It’s been a rough market (2022) even for the Dow and the Nasdaq and especially so for biotech. When the whole sector is in the dog house short term or long term , there is little anyone can do about it but struggle until it eventually turns around. Everyone knows the risk involved with this area of investing. No one can anticipate the sink holes or the severity of the sink holes in the path of success of a biotech startup. Every investor in any enterprise has the responsibility to determine the risk reward ratio according to his or her risk tolerance, and proceed accordingly. If I fail to do that consistently and successfully and lose my shirt , shame on me. I remain bullish on the long term success of the positions I am in and am holding until and unless the market tells me otherwise.
We have corresponded about natural holistic modes of prevention and treatment. In many cases, these are far more effective than Pharma approaches, which only address symptoms and not root causes. Example–CWBR is only a dream. Quicksilver Scientific has natural products that treat fatty liver disease, and dissolve gallstones in some cases. There are nutritional products that treat mitochondrial dysfunction, whereas CWBR is still in diapers and has gone to shit for most investors. Their technology does NOT address the main root causes of mito dysfunction– toxicity from the environment, poor dietary choices, hormone loss.
You are patient and skillful in buying these risky ventures at much lower prices than when originally recommended by MM, so your risk is much less. But the underlying truth is that nearly all biotechs will fail, so the best that can be said is that you will suffer less financial damage than most subscribers here.
I hope MM goes back to his roots and recaptures the success early in his career.
Quicksilver has good products. What product sometimes help to dissolve gallstones?
Mainstream medical thinking is that gallstones are caused by too much cholesterol. That is only partially correct. Toxic bile from the liver also contributes to gallstones. The earliest sign of trouble is when the abdominal sonogram shows gallbladder sludge. Sludge is thickened bile which eventually progresses to gallstones. Thickened bile is garbage-filled bile, like foggy glasses which need a simple cleaning. So the solution is products that clean the liver of toxins. (Of course, the prerequisite foundation is a healthy diet.) The basic first level is Quicksilver’s product, Push Catch, which is a combination of their Liver Sauce and Ultrabinder. More expensive products are Black Box II, Detox Box II. You can build up, first with Push Catch, then add Glutathione, Pure PC, Vitamin C, all Quicksilver products. Conventional vitamin C is minimally effective, since GI absorption plateaus, yielding insufficient blood levels of C.
Thanks for explaining gallstones. This is the first time I have heard of ways to prevent gallstones.
A few people know that a healthy diet is the main way to prevent gallstones, but few MD’s sit down to talk to patients about this. I only learned about Quicksilver’s liver/gall bladder health products recently. There are UK articles around 1990 talking about the use of shock wave lithotripsy to break up gallstones. In the US, lithotripsy is commonly used to break up kidney stones, but the corrupt US medical system goes where the money is, to just remove gallbladders as if there are no consequences in removing a vital organ. Many patients who have had their gall bladder removed suffer from fatty food intolerance because they don’t have bile delivered at meals, so it is desirable to seek ways to prevent and treat gallstones rather than resorting to surgery to remove the gall bladder.
As an aside, I have a 50 year old woman patient with large fibroid (benign) tumors of the uterus. In such a woman, the common practice is to do the hysterectomy rather than the more painstaking procedure of removing the fibroids and preserving the uterus. I previously bought into this reasoning without thinking too much about it, but this intelligent woman did the research on physiologic and psychological trauma women experience after a hysterectomy. She said that the orgasmic response involves vibrations in the uterus, so therefore the uterus is a vital organ for any woman interested in sex. She couldn’t find a gynecologist who accepted her insurance to do the more involved procedure to preserve her uterus. I thanked her for teaching me about this. It is disgusting that few doctors care about patients’ needs, and just do what is financially expedient and less time consuming. This is a warning to those who believe that a socialized medical system is proper. If you want the best care suited to your needs, expect to pay out of your own pocket for the proper attention with a real doctor, not an underpaid grunt in the system.
The problem we must address is that the world of investing of the future is quite different from the previous world. Well know companies today are often pealed off services they once owned to immerse as sreamlined. Where I live, Verizon has pealed off program content to focus on signal delivery. Elsewhere I see stripping down for battle is repositioning corporate profiles.
Meanwhile government is deciding to take over critical targets. Also , take a look at firms annual meetings where the focus is on better benefactions for the corporate leadership – not on shareholders benefits.
Under ten years of a management group they will retire with ownership will ownership.
One firm I owned was a Canadian Rail stock (not a MM recondation) merged with three others. Every member of all the 4 firms management continued on the corporate management.
One member of the original congress was asked “What kind of a nation do we have created.
Answer: A Democracy; until the population seeks emoluments (self benefaction). Was It Jefferson, Franklin or ????
Today, we are there now……….
@ Michael Murphy. Again thanks for a fine Radar, preceeded by an open self examination of the need for a new mission statement, as it were, if such things are do-able in the envirnioment in which we investment searchers and partners exist, as if we can adequately assess exactly what the truth is (Sorry Michael andJGMD and all, I have not joined Truth Social, just a bit of humor) One of my best bossess many years ago, after I had served the Navy as a ship driver and strategic planner for force readiness, told me he didn’t belive much in “planning”. Rather he focused on hard work done with a view towards what people and groups and organizations are doing and where they are so that we can going so that we can continue persuade them it was to their benefit to take advantage of what we are producing for them and how they could profit from our realtionship to mximum return on investment of time and resources. That was hard for me to take, as forms and formats and cost-benefit analysis over a multi-year period were supposed to be the means by which our staff and customers would also be committed due to those annual updates and multi year vision guides. I think I evolved from this great guy’s “ad hoc” focus and became a hybrid. How does this reflection apply to our reflection on your self examination, Michael Murphy? I think the proper focuse of ours now ought to be very “ad hoc” for price performance for several major reasons.. Those would be an economy that appears to have, at best, a struggle with the next 6 months thru the mid term elections and then the seating of new members of Congress In January 2023. Until that time, there is gonna be a problem with energy policies in the US and world, as we are going to get close to a riot in various venues about the price of Gasoline, natural gas, Perto-chemicals and Clean oil and diesel from this administration will go down robustly, with the scenario you have recently speculated. But, the winners in energy will be affected by the ESG policies they say they are undertaking, until ESG is eliinated by the new adminisration over the President’s veto. ESG has infected the stock market throught most sectors, but I detect we will start abandoning alternative energy light density scam that would require un achievable land and sea space beyong the planet’s size, without pauperizing all but the select few Davos attenders. Fossuil fuels will return to importance in the U.S along with small package nuclear energy sources and maybe other fill the tank gases which employ vehicles with high strength very light metal composites that get great mileage, with AI trips that don’t crash. Kathy Wood would give us a clue. After Jan 23, Green New deal will be dead..reliable energy will replace our now bird killing landsacpe dwindling interest in Chinese Solar plates, which they don’t use much.
Regarding new health ventures.We will see a movement towards integrated medicine, as medical schools will see higher pay for docs who treat the whole person for a care plan that includes behavioral medicine, and friendly patient understood language that motivates them to easily see what easy compliance will take. Recreational MJ will be a terrible experience with more shooters and addicts and psychopaths besides terrible accidents and public safety will cost a lot of high flying MJ and related high THC candy and cookies and smokes and vapes that will make us look like vodka drunk Russia on any week day. I think that your recommendation of CMPS is right on time now as ir will address major depression as a leader of that effort : Harsh Trivdi MD, head of the largest psychatric hospital anywherewill have a ful proctice for that mushroom intervention whnen approved, soon, I hope.. I have a lot more to say in other investment areas, but will shut up for now. BTW, re:ARTH, I did decrease my holdingsto putin a lottery ticket gold and silver venture. I did menton talking with a cosmetic company sales person owned by a guy that experienced a terrible skin burm years ago and did some work on cosmetics to deal with major scars, etc.They mentioned to me od some work with self assembling peptides. Who knows maybe TN might be interested in that angle. That’s it
I have lost most of my money on bad investments
Except the real estate I bot
TLDR; smoking pot would lead to ZERO mass murders. PERIOD.
Ohh, Hi Michael, nice to hear from you. My response would be ‘It depends what you mean by pot today” Here is a speculation from Alex Berenson, whose book on the subject , psychosis, serious mental illness and Violence was a best seller and has really proved its point for this top NY Times journalists who now writed in substack.com. Several Important U.S. and Foeign studies now have yileded a substantial number of reputable scientists, who are really concerned the opening of recreational is stoking dangerous seemingly innocent social unrest or disease (no matter how you define it) that is easily affecting as much as 20 % of young men and children, for whom some media take on a programmed ethos. I would call it “mini” Manchurian Candidates in the public square. Be well. Here’s some stuff from Berenson’s blog: ( I would note that very big money is very concerned about this.They seem to have bought out all Google, et al to try to debunk this concern.
Cannabis causes psychosis. Psychosis causes violence. (substack.com)
This is a silly argument. People smoke weed all over the world but almost all of the mass murders are in the US.
Hmmm … maybe it’s something else. I can’t really put my trigger finger on what it might be.
On that basis, you have to assume that they are avoiding smoking (having heard about tobacco, but using other happy day drugs today which has a rather strond set of side effects. And those people have international problems.
Piper comes out with new underweight rating on nvta at 7.30 am price target 2.50 wtf we can’t get a break
NVTA
I have been slightly more fortunate to have followed my instincts and unloaded all of your biotech picks in a timely manner and have avoided the worst of the debacle.
However, I am totally in agreement with you on NVTA. Please detail a little more on the change in strategy toward bottom line improvement. Do you expect to see results at the completion of this quarter and, if the result is significant do you expect a preannouncement and when exactly? How will the stock price be impacted given the market’s appetite for biotech, unprofitable companies and market conditions in general?
zman: unlike you, I did not unload the biotech picks in a timely matter – this subscription turned out to be far more expensive than what I have paid for investment advice during my lifetime. Hats off to you zman. MM, a person can not be right all the time. Godspeed.
It will be a quarter by quarter improvement as they hold G&A costs flat (maybe down) and still grow revenues. Hard to predict which quarter will cause Wall Street to realize the change is real. I bought more today.
G&A ?
What’s left to add to their complete range (A-Z) of offerings. It’s nice if every purchase is accretive, but it is not. Also, with the number of past acquired companies ( some at market tops) realization as a meaningful revenue booster is not always obvious. Sooner or later an unnecessary purchase will be dead wrong(financial quicksand). Is it possible that has already happened?
Hi Michael,
I’ve been an on-off subscriber way back from the 90s in the CSTL days. I’ve had a couple of the bio’s pay off nothing big but tech seems more reliable. Early bio can be extremely volatile but I think your approach of buying a basketful and then wait – often many years is reasonable. But if you’re impatient you lose the big pop if there is one e.g.I sold Ligand at $21 after holding from years from a $7 buy in. 20 years later they’re $150+.
But it seems to me there are more quick wins in the tech space and we can see transformations in our daily lives. I bought Apple many years ago (adjusted at $20), you had recommended it and I was in the US on holiday and the stores were packed with people buying iPods. I literally went home that day and bought Apple and will probably never sell it. Likewise for some stability in my portfolio I bought a few Berkshire B’s at $1800 (pre-split) and again will probably never sell it until retirement.
So a bit of my “play money” goes into your Biotech suggestions but maybe they’re early, but that’s the way you have worked and it was ok with me. However, waiting to Phase 2 and what the big Pharma players would do, and how these companies are being managed and transitioning does make sense. The pay off might not be as big, but logically the chance of more wins you would think should increase.
I’m in tech, I feel more comfortable buying tech especially after a market drop if I can see and understand the opportunity, but a bit of play money (usually just $2k per bio) that can help cure diseases seems pretty meaningful in some small way.
I’m not interested in crypto, I don’t like the idea of paying for a math generated number so I’m with Mr Buffet there, nothing personal, although some of my IT colleagues have made and lost a lot in that area, but it’s not for me. I thought about bitcoin at $2, big mistake there & would have changed my life but I’m still comfortable with that decision. I probably would have sold it at $10 and thought it was a good exit. I’m more disappointed I sold LGND when they were just starting to make money than not buying bitcoin.
Anyways, that just my thoughts.
All the best
Steve (NZ)
My grandfather bought KO around 1921, tripled his money, and sold it. Regretted the sale the rest of his life.
I can imagine, it’s heartbreaking…I bet your grandfather didn’t enjoyed drinking a coke years later
didnt LGND do a 1 for 6 revers split. that was a looser for me
First, I believe I discovered crypto from you years ago and have done incredibly well with btc mostly, and mostly during two runups. So I am very grateful to you, MM, for that.
However, I have not had much success with the other recommendations. I have decided to move towards a different style of trading (swing trading), in stocks that have reached (or look like theh have reached) their growth stage. I do sometimes “play” (trade) with the recommendations here, but I shouldn’t given that the recommendations are mostly for long holding periods.
Also, I never understood how to use the fractal information (my bad?), especially since the individual recommendations are based on buy and hold. Are we supposed to get out and in based on that?
Not really. Fractals tell you if a move in the S&P is a trending move or a consolidation, and when it is likely to come to an end. Directly useful for writing options, but otherwise just to know where you are in the cycle and how big the next trend might be. Traders use fractals for much shorter time periods – 60 minutes, etc. I use the weekly but they can be calculated monthly or even longer.
Reading between the lines today, Tesla, is in trouble. And/or Musk is stressed out. Nothing adds up. He is cutting staff in the face of increased orders, while his competitors are doing the opposite. He is threatening employees with termination if they are not physically on site with the Covid numbers advancing, and with the current number of employees “job hopping “. His most profitable plant in China has been shut down due to lockdown and just recently opened back up. Not to mention the addition to his stress level with all the time and energy required in the Twitter buy out. Just sayin. IMO
@John Miller,The far left media hate him and he is geting their “treatments,” one of which is to portray him, just as you chracterized his current status. I wouldn’t worry. Spacex is doing well and the whole isue of distance learning and working has revealed a lot of negatives. I would estimate a good 25% or more being no learning or no working from this poorly evaluated of high tech and high touch. Be well.
DG
I worked from home in as a software developer for almost 20 years before retiring. Trust me, you are almost twice as productive writing code in your peaceful home without getting consistently derailed by coworkers in an office. I would say working from home is MORE stressful because your office is always staring you in the face.
However, planning and design sessions are better in person. Zoom is a pretty good substitute though.
I doubt Musk will mess with any of his software developers. These people are like unicorns and if they are forced into an office they will simply go to another company. I’m guessing that Tesla’s growth has created a large number of do nothing middle managers. Those people are most likely his 10%.
Michael and all. I really appreciate what you mean by the efficacy of solo activity wrtiting code, but let me make a distinction here. My experience goes way back up to the not too distant past, maybe 60 + years ago, starting with punched cards, then coding the decision making process with something called “autocoder” and, on ships and land based military writing, in Octal which is a (0-7) based line based system, a real pain but you get used to it, then had the pleasure of meeting the legendary Grace Hopper, the only lady Navy Officer , who turned out to be a Rear Admiral in her 80’s. Grace invented COBOL and up we went with compilers you folks do that looks like real english and clusters of ideas. That’s reaaly nice. But my work with the Cruiseer Destroyer Forces of the Atlantic fleet, our interest was getting a real time sense of readiness from all sorts of data, then management information systems, as I took my leave from military operations. As we have proceeded from modular organizational info to support segments of companies all the way to AI, these days, setting up specs for systems performance really lends itself to face to face teamwork. This really applies to multi-national ops and Mars some day. I agree with Elon that face to face is really productive in a hybrid sense of productivity, but does not yet exclude the sole coder. So take heart. Finally, I heard tonight on Bloomberg Asian networks thatChina has really opened up the lock downs and is jacking up the shifts to 3 in their plants (brutal guys). Tesla is gonna get a bump, I bet and all those rumors about leaving Tesla due to become a real Twit, is folks who want him to disappear. The guys he has gotten money from to put up the final price will be a nice team on the new Twitter. Space is really hot and so is concern with open discussion appetites that help us get back better to cross discussion our points of view. I love integrated systems. We have become split apart by silos of specialties, that it is time to integrate skills so tha docs, for example understand and treat the whole person, physical, behavioral and ideological (spiritual). That’s where AI is helping as long as we build in counter arguments within new systems that keeps us from getting bamboozled by a Manchurian Candidate buried within.
Be well and prosper. Here’s to a great June.
Interesting about your military IT experience, but docs will never adopt integrative, holistic medicine. 99% of them disparage nutrition, and exclusively prescribe drugs for everything. Psychiatry is the lowest on the totem pole for that. Due to legal complications, MD’s refer to specialists to take the legal heat off primary care.
I’m not sure how much trouble they are in long term but Musk has got to stop shooting from the hip and drunk tweeting. He needs to drop this TWTR buyout and focus. He is most definitely burned out.
Tesla will most certainly miss delivery numbers this quarter and they are pretty richly priced. I sold my holdings when it shot up for no reason on Thursday and swapped into GOOG for it’s upcoming/maybe split run. I’d love to get back into Tesla in the $400s but we’ll see. Long term, TSLA will dominate because they have no ICE legacy to support, the gigafactories are a masterful production facilities, their AI/self driving is probably 5-10 years ahead of anyone, and their supercharger network is years ahead of anyone else.
I bought a model 3 almost a year ago. Best investment I’ve ever made. With gas prices where they are I’m saving about $150-200 a month and the car is phenomenal.
Thanks Michael and Don and JGMD for your input, information and opinions. All very much appreciated. It’s good to hear various viewpoints.
I like the change. Buying early-stage biotechs and hoping for a big winner is not good investment strategy. Appreciate that you admitted and analyzed your mistakes.
While you are in the mood, you should also consider fessing up on some others. Will make you a better person and give you more credibility.
GILD and ACRDF come to mind. Even if you don’t know why they haven’t performed, accept that the market doesn’t see whatever you see.
Taking these 2, for example: If haven’t performed well by now, what possible events would it take for them to suddenly blossom ?
There are much better investments out there.
Doesn’t it seem like a bit too little and a bit too late? I can’t imagine how much money people on this board have lost.
KBA had a good run, but has fallen back to the original price reco. Corrupt China is always risky, so buy & hold is a bad strategy for this. Since the Shanghai lockdowns are nearly over, KBA is rising. Buy on pessimism, sell on optimism.
Velo3D presentation at Blair starts in 7 minutes.
https://wsw.com/webcast/blair66/register.aspx?conf=blair66&page=velo&url=https://wsw.com/webcast/blair66/velo/1945188
@Micahel Murphy, Very impressive stuff. Puts DDD and SSYS to a few generations behind. Thanks for the recomendation on it.
DM has far outperformed VLD since I mentioned the superior financial metrics for DM a month ago. VLD’s tech is better, but as investors we want to buy better valued stocks which are less risky.
@JGMD and @ Michael Murphy, I find it hard to differentiate between value and risk in the age of “you name it” supply chains, cash flow, transitory inflation -forgive the pun-, The projections for VLD have been all over the place with Needham holding on with a buy and momentum in large pocket customers like SpaceX the latter defines value for me VLD This older news for example,
Velo3D, a supplier of 3D printers to SpaceX, raises $28 million | TechCrunch
Arth: I bought and liked because I thought that it would be a perfect product to have in the medicine cabinets for those scraps and cuts that us older citizens get when we bump into objects or the pets’ scratches cut us. I don’t know why they didn’t pursue an over-the-counter version. Advertise it in AARP and they should have been able to sell hundreds of million worth the first year. I would have bought a couple of bottles even if it was $50 a bottle and I guarantee you that I would have bought more as we are constantly scrapping ourselves.
ARTH priced AC5 at top dollar. Who knows if they would have made lots of sales if the price wasn’t so high. Usually an OTC version would be offered after the pricey new drug/device version has made sales for many years, or loses its patent. ARTH failed at everything except interesting science experiments. They were like high school kids doing experiments with no plan to commercialize.
There is still time to sell and grab some money which is better than a total loss.
HALO becomes”in the money” today for former ATRS holders as it goes into distribution of its new testosterone product today
Halozyme Announces Commercial Launch of TLANDO™, an Oral Treatment for Testosterone Replacement Therapy (yahoo.com)
While we are at it. growth and income future hailed today for ET (Energy Transfer) Sources: Fidelity, Zacks, Motley Fool, Cramer and a bunch. Please do your own due diligence but there is a lot of momentum here. GLTA
SCYX. According to a poster on Yahoo Brexa scripts increased by almost 10% for the week ending 5/27 to 508. The previous week the number of scripts was 468.
FAX and math of the oil trade. The current break even point in a barrel of domestic oil. Eagle Ford is $23. a barrel. A new well is about $48 in the Permian Basin. Existing and new well breakeven is $29 and $51 in non shale regions.Average numbers are $38 and $60. At $115 a barrel oil companies are making a killing of cash. Projections are $180 billion in free cash flow this year. My iPath note is up 69 percent. Thanks MM. I bought some more today at $39.68 . Schlafers Auto Parts in Mendocino California price of gas $9.60 a gallon for regular!!Just sayin
The new Radar Report for 6.9.22 is posted. Off to 8th grade graduation!