Dear New World Investor:
The Fed raised the Fed funds rate ¾ of a percent (75 basis points or bps) to a range of 2.25% to 2.50%. The cumulative rate hike for June and July is the most aggressive since the early 1980s, yet the stock market exploded higher. Their very first sentence makes it clear why: “Recent indicators of spending and production have softened.”
So despite openly recognizing economic growth is softening, the Fed unanimously decided to hike by 75 bps because it’s all about inflation, inflation, and inflation. But stocks and bonds started rallying strongly only after Chairman Powell said: “We are now at levels broadly in line with our estimates of neutral interest rates, and after front-loading our hiking cycle until now we will be much more data dependent going forward.”
The “neutral rate” is the interest rate at which the economy runs at its potential, without either overheating or excessively cooling down. With this 75 bps hike, the Fed just reached its estimate of the neutral rate. They think they aren’t contributing to economic overheating any more. They recognize that further increases put them in actively restrictive territory, which is where they want to be to bring inflation down.
But the bond market knows that every time the Fed becomes restrictive, they break something. So Powell was asked: What about forward guidance? He said: “From here onward, we are fully data dependent.” Boom: he ditched guidance completely.
This is important because over the last few months the bond market has developed a very strong opinion about inflation: It’s going to move down, and very fast. Between July 2023 and 2024, the Consumer Price Index is priced to print at around 2.9%, which roughly equals a Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (the Fed’s chosen measure of inflation) of 2.5%. Basically, at target!
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And what is that data the Fed will be seeing?
This Morning – June quarter real GDP -0.9% (We’re in a recession – see below)
July 29 – June Personal Consumption Expenditures Index
August 5 – July payrolls (see below – probably weak)
August 10 – Consumer Price Index (probably less than July’s +9.1%)
August 25 – June quarter real GDP – second estimate
August 26 – July Personal Consumption Expenditures Index
August 26 – Powell speaks at Jackson Hole conference
September 2 – August payrolls (probably weak again)
September 13 – Consumer Price Index (probably less than August for the second month in a row)
September 21 – Next Fed meeting
So if the Fed is not nearly on autopilot anymore, and markets have a strong opinion on inflation and growth collapsing, they can price all assets around this base case scenario. Not surprisingly, Nasdaq and crypto are outperforming. What is the bond market saying? +50 bps in September, +25 bps in November, +25 bps in December, and DONE. The bond market expects 50 bps of cuts in 2023. Peak Fed hawkishness is behind us.
GDP
In advance of this morning’s first look at June quarter real GDP, JPMorgan raised their forecast from +0.7% to +1.4%. The Briefing.com consensus raised to +0.5% from -1.6%. The latest Blue Chip Economists consensus was +2.0% in a range from +1.3% to +2.9%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast was -1.2%, and they were directionally right. The actual number was -0.93% and we now have two quarters in a row of negative GDP.
You will see a lot of gaslighting about how that doesn’t mean we are in a recession, because the National Bureau of Economic Research (the official arbiter of when a recession starts and ends) wants to see widespread softness before they make the call. True. But it’s also true that the NBER takes about a year to date recessions and there has never been two down GDP quarters in a row without a recession being declared. So, yes, we are in a recession.
And we’ll probably see another down quarter in September, to be announced on October 27, right before the midterm elections. GDP excluding inventories actually was up 1.1%, but both wholesale and retail inventories were higher than expected even after inventory liquidation provided a 2.0% drag on overall growth. The US economy is ensnared in a classic inventory correction – both Target and Wal-Mart warned us – and inventories will continue to weigh on growth in the September quarter. The inevitable discounting will reduce inflation.
In his press conference, Chairman Powell said he doubts the economy is in recession considering the “very strong labor market.” Really? Initial jobless claims just hit an eight-month high and we see new layoff announcements every day.
The good news is if this is a mild recession that’s over before the end of the year, as seems likely, on average the stock market has bottomed about four months before the end of a recession. It’s pretty consistent timing, although 2020 obviously was an outlier.
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Market Outlook
The S&P 500 added 1.8% since last Thursday to close well above 4,000. It needs 292 more points to be labeled a new bull market. The Index still is down 14.6% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% and is down 22.3% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 2.0% and is down 16.6% in 2022.
About 180 companies – 35% of the S&P 500 – reported June quarter results this week, including much of big tech. The blackout period for stock buybacks ends when results are reported and companies are eager to buy their stock at these levels. At the same time, the hedge funds gross/net leverage is the lowest since the pandemic crash, just in time for Powell to turn data dependent. And now the chase begins.
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Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, CEO of our Mongolia Growth Group recommendation and a hedge fund manager himself, wrote an insightful Twitter thread:
2) Look at 2022, many large hedge funds are down 25%+. Year-end redemption notices start Nov 1. These guys have 3 months to turn it around or get redeemed. Everyone gets redemptions from time to time. Losing half your Assets Under Management because you were long Ponzi is existential to your career.
3) Guys will fight like mad to make it back. This isn’t about performance for performance’s sake, this is about survival. You have to get to flat or your business goes poof. Down 25% and it’s poof anyway, so you take a shot. If you guess wrong and end down 40% you were dead anyway.
4) Therefore, guys are forced to take shots on goal. Fix it by Nov. 1, or lose the AUM. How do you fix it? Certainly not in cash. You can bet big on the short side, maybe use options, but hard to put up big numbers that way. Instead, they’re forced to play long-sided.
5) Every data point shows that funds are massively underweight on long exposure. Huge cash positions, low gross, lower net exposure. These guys will all be forced to pivot long. Relative performance is cute when you’re down 5% and market is down 25%. It means nothing when down 20% versus 25%.
6) The FOMC will do its thing, everyone will see a few hours/days of whipsaw action, but in the end, guys need exposure to save their careers. They are gonna have to buy it. Doesn’t matter what Fed or economy or the dollar or rates or GDP does. Guys have 3 months to stack basis points.
7) Think we get a sizable rally into the fall and sort it out from then. Guys just have to be long… As for me, I’m pretty damn long. Have highest exposure since the bottom in March 2020. Laid into GDP sensitive assets in late-June. Felt so confident that I’m on vacation.
8) It is amazing just how many dominant, near-monopoly assets are 2x-5x run-rate Free Cash Flow. These are companies with 30%+ Return On Invested Capital. Good businesses haven’t been this cheap except February 2009 and March 2020. Difference is that those times were scary. Now isn’t scary. We may have a recession…
9) Who cares about recession? You don’t buy amazing companies for the next quarter or three. You buy them because of long-term compounding. When they give away great businesses this cheap, you simply stack them and ignore next Q. They will eventually be valued on stabilized numbers.
10) Anyway, we all like to talk about stuff that makes us look smart (macro/fx/single stocks/etc.) That’s fine and good. We don’t talk enough about who’s screwed and has 100 days to save his career. Cornered animals do crazy things.
I think the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is about to go under 20, probably on its way to 12.
The fractal dimension is solidly in consolidation mode after the big decline in the first half of the year. Ideally, it will get fully consolidated by the end of September and then release the energy into a big upturn to end the year.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
AAPL Apple – September new iPhone introduction
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, July 29
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am
Tuesday, August 2
SII – Sprott – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
GILD – Gilead – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
APTO – Aptose – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Wednesday, August 3
CMPS – Compass – 8:00am – Earnings conference call
CDE – Coeur Mining – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
FSLY – Fastly – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, August 4
SCYX – ScyNexis – Through 8/6 – Infectious Diseases Society for Obstetrics and Gynecology Annual Meeting
AG – First Majestic – Unspec. – Earnings release; no conference call
CDE – Coeur Mining – 11:00am – Earnings conference call
AKBA – Akebia – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
Friday, August 5
July payrolls – 8:30am – +260,000 expected; June was +372,000
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.51) got an updated recommendation from Research Capital which said:
“We are maintaining our SPECULATIVE BUY rating & C$25 Target Price.
Dr Jacky Smith is a key opinion leader (KOL) in chronic cough. An additional statistical analysis of Algernon’s Phase 2a data in IPF patients with chronic cough confirmed Dr. Smith’s original positive impression of the study.
“Additional Positive Phase 2a Cough Data – Analyzed by Dr. Jacky Smith
Dr. Jacky Smith, Professor of Respiratory Medicine at the University of Manchester, and an Honorary Consultant at Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust reviewed the Algernon Phase 2a data in IPF patients with chronic cough. Dr Jacky Smith is an expert in chronic cough. As an example, Dr. Smith has been instrumental in helping Bellus advance their chronic cough candidate – hence her opinion on Algernon’s cough candidate should not be taken lightly.
“After conducting additional statistical review of the data, Dr. Smith noted that Algernon cough data showed a significant improvement in mean objective 24-hour and waking cough counts after 4 and 12 weeks.”
C$25, huh? I’ll take that. AGNPF is a Hold for the Phase 2b IPF/chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $16.18) started a Phase 2 trial of psilocybin therapy in anorexia nervosa. This is a 60-patient, multi-center, double-blind, randomized trial investigating the efficacy of COMP360 psilocybin, administered with psychological support. It will be at four world-leading research institutes in the UK and US – King’s College London, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, University of California San Diego School of Medicine, and Sheppard Pratt.
Anorexia is a serious mental illness with the highest mortality rate of all psychiatric disorders because of medical complications and suicide. There are no approved drug treatments. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2023
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.51) announced new clinical data from their Phase 1/2 trial of MDNA11 that showed preliminary evidence of anti-cancer activity in patients with advanced solid tumors who have been unresponsive to other treatments. Data from the trial’s initial and mid-stage dose escalation cohorts showed signs of tumor control in four of ten evaluable patients with hard to treat cancers such as sarcomas and pancreatic cancer that are also highly resistant to immunotherapies. They have opened enrollment for the fifth dose-escalation cohort. Buy MDNA under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: mid-2022
Biotech MegaShift
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $6.39) presented more data from their Phase 3 multiple sclerosis trials to the Congress of the European Academy of Neurology. The PDUFA date is December 28, and I don’t think we’ll hear anything else meaningful before then. Buy TGTX under $7 for a target price in a buyout of $25 or more after the MS drug is approved.
Primary Risk: FDA turns the MS drug down.
Clinical stage of lead product: Filed for approval.
Probable time of next FDA approval: September 28, 2022
Probable time of next financing: December 2022 quarter
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $157.35) reported June third quarter revenues up 1.9% from last year to $82.96 billion, in line with estimates. They earned $1.20 per share, beating the $1.15 estimate but down from last year’s $1.30.
Products revenue of $63.36 billion was flat with last year’s $63.95 billion. iPhone revenue of $40.67 billion, a June quarter record, was better than Street estimates and up from last year’s $39.57 billion. Mac revenue of $7.38 billion fell from last year’s $8.24 billion, as did iPad revenue of $7.22 billion, down from $7.37 billion, and wearables, home and accessories at $8.08 billion versus $8.8 billion.
Service revenue was a real bright spot at $19.6 billion, up 12.6% from last year’s $17.48 billion. The company said supply constraints were less than anticipated at the start of the quarter and September quarter revenue growth is expected to accelerate. Wall Street liked that and the stock is up about 4% on the aftermarket. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Corning (GLW – $36.29) reported June quarter revenues up 7.4% from last year to $3.76 billion, just under the $3.79 billion estimate. Pro forma earnings of 57¢ per share beat the 56¢ estimate even though three of their significant demand drivers – panel maker utilization, automotive production, and smartphone sales – were down, thanks to their “More Corning” content opportunities and strength in optical and solar. Their gross profit margin increased to 37.5%, mostly due to price increases and a favorable product mix. They had $440 million in free cash flow.
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they guided the September quarter slightly below consensus: $3.65 billion to $3.85 billion in core sales versus the consensus for $3.79 billion, with core earnings of 51¢ to 55¢ versus the 56¢ consensus. They now expect full-year sales to “slightly exceed” $15 billion versus the $15.35 billion consensus, growing in a range of 6% to 8%, with core earnings growing in line with sales to $2.19 to $2.24 versus the $2.33 consensus.
Optical Communications was up a whopping 22% from last year and 10% from the March quarter to $1.3 billion.
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80%-owned Hemlock Semiconductor, although small ($418 million), was up 45% from last year and is a hidden gem in the Corning story.
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I completely agree with these two SeekingAlpha articles, Corning: A Sleeper Gem To Own For The Next 10+ Years and Buy Corning For 3% In Dividend Income And Growth. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My first target is $60 in 2023 .
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $60.40) said the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use of the European Commission recommended granting Marketing Authorization for Veklury (remdesivir) without specific obligations around oxygen or other requirements. Veklury can be used anytime a doctor thinks it should be.
The company also said Tecartus, Kite’s CAR T-cell therapy, got a positive opinion in relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia. It is the first and only CAR T therapy in Europe to receive a positive CHMP opinion. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $70 for a first target of $100.
Meta Platforms (META – $160.72) reported June quarter revenues of $28.82 billion, a bit under the $28.95 million consensus estimate. This was its first ever year-over-year decline in revenue, but that was expected. Earnings per share of $2.46 missed by nine cents. The big problem was September quarter guidance for $26.0 billion to $28.5 billion in revenue, well under the $30.3 billion expected.
Advertising revenue by user geography is holding up, except in Europe:
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Daily active users are pretty flat:
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Here is the revenue problem: Average revenue per user has fallen due to the Apple iOS privacy changes:
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And here is part of the earnings problem. Zuckerberg is pouring huge amounts of money into their metaverse initiative. It shows up in both R&D and CapEx:
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But we want him to do this. The metaverse is the next gigantic consumer market, and Meta, Apple, and maybe Snap will be the early leaders. On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE and HERE), management said their family of apps now reach more than 3.6 billion people monthly across all their services. The number of people using Facebook daily continues to grow, including in the US, although they saw an expected decline in monthly actives due to internet blocks related to the war in Ukraine. Engagement trends on Facebook have generally been stronger than anticipated, and strong Reels growth, their TikTok competitor, is continuing to drive engagement across Facebook and Instagram.
Zuckerberg said: “Advances in AI enable us to deliver better personalized ads while using less data. It powers automated messaging and creation tools that let businesses run better performing campaigns — which is particularly important for small businesses that don’t have big marketing departments and that have been hit hard by Apple’s policy changes. Overall, there’s a lot of work to do here – and a lot of the investment is in AI compute capex – but I’m confident that if we invest in building the new infrastructure we need, then we’re going to come out of this downturn with even more superior ad products and a meaningful technology advantage over other industry players.”
Exactly. META is a Buy under $250 for a $400 target in 2023 or 2024.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.93) published their 129-page annual report. Masa starts out strong:
“Back in 2010, we unveiled the “SoftBank’s Next 30-Year Vision” to further clarify our unwavering commitment to our founding philosophy, expressed in the Philosophy, Information Revolution—Happiness for everyone. More recently, we started describing ourselves as a Vision Capitalist for the Information Revolution to underscore our role as a strategic investment holding company.
“The SoftBank Group Report is the latest in this series of efforts. The new format presents our corporate story, showing how our strategy and business model will deliver our core philosophy and vision, how we will build value, and how we will enable 300 years of sustained growth.”
So if you are looking for a stock to buy and hold for 300 years, SoftBank is your answer. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.
Other Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $11.41) announced a reseller partnership with Human Security to offer Fastly customers industry-leading bot protection as well as fraud and account abuse prevention to keep cybercriminals out of their online applications and services. FSLY is a Buy up to $20 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.55) will supply its high-efficiency, radiation-hardened solar cell assemblies for three Lockheed Martin spacecraft designed to provide resilient space-based global missile warning capabilities to meet evolving threats from adversaries under the United States Space Force’s Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) program. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,752.60) has bounced off the 61.8% retracement level at $1,705 and still is fully consolidated. A big uptrend is just a question of when, not if.
Miners & Related
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.93) said both Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass, Lewis have recommended that SAND shareholders vote for the acquisition of Nomad Royalty. I agree. Upon completion of the acquisition, existing Sandstorm shareholders will own approximately 73% of the combined company.
Institutional Shareholder Services said: “The transaction makes strategic sense as it is expected to provide immediate cash flow per share and net asset value per share accretion to Sandstorm. The combination should further enhance Sandstorm’s portfolio through the addition of low-cost assets from Nomad, with an expectation that production will grow greater than 85% between 2022 and 2025. The combined company is anticipated to have increased public float, liquidity, greater financial capacity, and improved access to capital.”
Nolan Watson is a great royalty/streaming CEO, which is a major reason I recommended the stock. Everyone should own Sandstorm before any other precious metals investment. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $23,798.92) is rallying with other risk-on assets, but not as much as I expected – so far. I think this will turn into a major upturn and this is a great time to buy it or the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $97.13
JPMorgan warned that oil isn’t pricing in a recession, but that risk is growing: “…while historical evidence suggests that demand is well supported as long as global growth remains positive, oil price tends to fall in all recessions by 30% to 40%. Under a 1.5% global growth scenario, global oil demand will grow by 0.6 mbd (million barrels a day) in 2023, 0.6 mbd below our current forecast. This would result in a 1.4 mbd surplus in 2023 with stocks normalizing back to 2015- 2019 average levels by the end of 2023.” Their base case remains intact: “Global oil price in the low-$100s in the second half of 2022 and high-$90s in 2023.”
I think they are really wrong. Average annual oil demand growth from 2000 to 2019 was quite steady around 1.2 to 1.3 mbd. It grows a bit faster than population growth over time, which is 1.1% to 1.2%. Due to pandemic-related lockdowns, demand has been way below trend over the last three years.
Taking 2019 as a base and making demand grow at 1.2 mbd per year, we should be at 104.2 mbd of demand for 2022. But the latest estimate is 99.2 mbd. So we are 5.0 mbd below trend already. Estimates for 2023 are for demand at 101.3 mbd versus a potential of 105.4 mbd. That is 4.1 mbd below trend. For comparison sake, the largest underperformance relative to trend was in 2009 at 2.5 mbd. Very weak demand is already in the forecasts. I think oil demand is more likely to surprise to the upside, even in a weak economy, assuming we can get enough supply.
Which is a major issue. Last week OPEC released its latest Monthly Oil Market Report and warned that global oil demand is set to rise to levels that would test its production capacity. They said the amount of oil that the cartel needs to produce in order to cover global demand could rise to 32 million barrels daily in 2023. That would be up from 28.7 million bpd as of this June, which means OPEC would need to boost its production by over 3 million bpd within the next year and a half to cover demand, coming mostly from China and India.
What they didn’t say, but what you and I know, is they don’t have the spare capacity to do it. According to conservative estimates, OPEC’s spare production capacity could slip below one million barrels daily by the end of this year.
Demand still recovering from pandemic lows + a shortfall of supply = much higher oil prices. Got OIL?
As for natural gas, Europe has shale rock formations with lots of natural gas, they just refuse to drill it.
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The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $33.23) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.53) will benefit from the demand for uranium. In its June quarter earnings conference call, leading uranium miner Cameco (CCJ) said they are seeing “unprecedented demand.”
The new $370 Billion Senate energy security and climate change deal provides a ”Zero-Emission Nuclear Production Tax Credit” and allocates $700 million to develop a US supply of High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium fuel for advanced reactors plus $150 million for nuclear lab infrastructure. You can download a copy of the 725-page “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022” HERE. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
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Less than half the number of pre-pandemic office workers are returning to business districts consistently. There’s a huge glut of available office space…
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Your resisting fiat news Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.76) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.57) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $16.18) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.14) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $2.08) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $1.99) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.51) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.38) – Buy under $2, target price $20, then $50
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $6.39) – Buy under $7, target price $25+
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $157.35) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $36.29) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $60.40) – Buy under $70, target price $100
Meta (FB – $160.72) – Buy under $250, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.93) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $41.91) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $11.41) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $26.00) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.27) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.86) – Buy under $10, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.55) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $3.05) – Buy under $6, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – $447,000 – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – ($16.61) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $22.78) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $28.77) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $16.58) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $25.92) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.03) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $7.47) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.44) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.93) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $37.04) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $23,798.92) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $14.83) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,725.06) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $12.76) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $31.25) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $35.59) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $16.10) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $29.95) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.07) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.30) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $33.23) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.53) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.51) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.40) – Hold for FDA meeting
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.05) – Hold for buyout
CohBar (CWBR – $0.18) – Hold for human trials of CB5138-3
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Bingo I won one!
Good to hear.
Question for you mm are we assuming that nvta won’t be reporting next week after the recent report with what the company sent out
They haven’t scheduled a call yet
Ok,tx
And another Great Radar Michael Murphy. Especially since sentiment has less that 50 % confidence in the markets this afteroon in a CNBC quick poll. Your assessment of the fossil net demand seems right on the button to me for a number of reasons. We have taken too much of the contingency assets out of the Strategic Oil inventory, which is really bad due to hurricane season is coming around the corner and besides replacing what will have been drawn by then, Europe is doing a sack cloth and ashes routine to require demand reduction of natural gas, which I don’t think they will make. All of these things plus bipartisan escalating complaints about the ESG climate change messages getting three or four of the big banks to tonight to hold back capital loans on poor performance measures. Jamie Dimon, one of them, just said he wants to go back to “markets” not ideologies Again Ukraine and China play a contingency which appears to be putting us in a be nice posture, which may not look very good,come this fall or sooner (aka the Pelosi Taiwan trip)(she needs to go now, come hell or come water, IMHO) We need to show some ships and nuclear submarines, to give Xi some reason to pause, if that’s possible. Like you observation on gold and your “strong hands” strategy now. GLTA
Right. Xi-CCP is a bully, so the US needs to show strength with the Pelosi Taiwan trip, ships and nuclear subs. Good for Jamie Dimon.
Looks like you and Don have gotten the WW3 bug alright. The Neocons driving our reckless, unrestrained and warmongering foreign policy via the DC Uniparty, save some solitary opposition, are freaking out over the failure in the Ukraine, with the destruction of their best proxy and our consequent humiliation (Afghanistan x10), and are now desperately trying to open up new fronts and start new wars. On the one hand they are ratcheting up the tensions with Iran, on the other China, where it is obvious they are using the Pelosi trip as a detonator as the US was told multiple times that is a red line that should not be crossed. The trip is akin to an ultimate provocation; I guess the plan is to have Japan, SK and other Asian allies fight China for us just like we would like Europe to intervene against Russia conventionally which they will never do as they are extremely weak militarily.
We are not that strong either with the Pentagon failing to sign up enough volunteers (except the Marines) for its annual quotas and lots of problems with advanced weaponry like the F-35, the Littoral ships (brand new and already scrapped) and no Hypersonics, not even on the horizon. In the meantime, huge amounts of artillery pieces and ammo have been sent to the Ukraine that will take a long time to replenish as well as Javelins etc. Ukrainian Turkish and other types of drones being constantly shot down begs the question of the quality of Russian Air Defense vis-a-vis our main system, the Patriot, incapable of shooting down very basic Houti drones when deployed in defense of Saudi Arabia’s refinery/chemical plants that were successfully attacked a few months ago. So, what exactly do we get for $800billion/year?
OK, the US and allies are relatively weak compared to 30 years ago. Do we know that China is militarily stronger than the US and allies currently? Even if yes, does China wish to engage in war with all its risks to their economy? Do you think the US should appease China and do nothing, as Europe appeased Hitler? Was appeasement of Hitler the only option for the rest of Europe? Could WW2 have been averted if Chamberlain said no?
The Pelosi trip is not a normal trip to show support for an ally at a moment of peril and Xi is not Hitler. She could have coordinated the trip with Bejing but no. So it is a rank provocation that will lead to nothing but war. And why? Because Biden and his administration are facing catastrophes on several fronts, from the Ukraine imploding to runaway inflation to a potential recession by the time of the mid-terms. Just like the Argentinian Junta, which in 1982 was facing a restless populace amidst a collapsing economy and decided to invade the Falkland Islands and go to war with the UK as a means to “change the narrative”, so is this US administration using the Speaker of the House trip to manufacture a convenient crisis to distract the US electorate. Instead of using an off-ramp this is the equivalent of a doubling down and going for broke geopolitically with the short term added benefit of getting the Republicans on board and rally behind the flag.
To answer your question directly, China is potentially equal as far as land forces are concerned; but Taiwan is an island and the US Navy is far stronger than the Chinese Navy, particularly in the submarine force. That is why, imho, there is a lot of furious rhetoric but no action so far. China is very aware of its own maritime shortcomings. However, and this is the key, this moronic US provocation will have plenty of unintended consequences, the first and most obvious of which, and the most dangerous, is now the sealing of a complete and total alliance with Russia. And Russia is not only a Peer Adversary, much stronger than the US in key areas of the modern battlefield such as Electronic Warfare and Air Defense, but it just inaugurated a new doctrine for its blue water Navy with new classes of surface ships armed to the teeth with Zyrcon hypersonic missiles with a 1,600km range, both conventional and nuclear, for which the US has zero defense capability and it has a huge and extremely advanced submarine force.
El Capitan Nemo, you make me laugh by talking about the Ukrainian imploding and Russian military superiority. Wait another few months and we will see the Russian army will be bitten on the battlefields.
The VSU, Ukrainian Army, has lost, killed or wounded, ALL of the original NATO trained Army in 2014-2022 numbering 80-100,000. A lot of these losses were experienced officers and NCOs who are irreplaceable. It is currently throwing badly trained draftees and “Volksturm” type of units to the front lines which are getting decimated by Russian artillery and standoff weapons. You are just repeating Biden administration, Pentagon and MSM talking points which buttress a strategy of fighting Russia “to the last Ukrainian” which, imho, is cynical if not outright evil.
What if a.) we announce “she was there yesterday” or b.) we announce nothing no matter what happens or c.) have her meet outside the Formosa land and not saying where. The giant brains in DC could rate this as “super clever”
cancelled
Bought more NVTA
Don’t mind telling you mm that I pray everyday that you are right with nvta and we will get our money back plus some it’s crazy rev 500 million a year ,while other companies don’t make sqaut,what am I missing besides the losses
You can engage in prayer, or you can listen to my analysis of medical realities. I engaged in prayer hopium with ARTH, but took my losses when reality hit me in the face.
Tx for that jgmd,does your gut tell you that we won’t see 10 dollars a share for nvta ever,it’s hard to grip and 80 percent loss at this price,do you see a reverse split coming next
Hopium in NVTA may see a gain from $1.90 to $3-4, just a wild guess. Or it may continue the plunge to below $1 and require a reverse split.
My final purchase of ARTH at 8-9 cents was merely an attempt to average down and minimize my overall loss. It was a smart move briefly as the stock rose to about 12 cents. Then it plunged as people saw that no sales were made in the recent quarter. This was due to the fact that the AC5 variants were only considered an investigational device, and no bigger company would step up as a partner or buyer. When this reality hit me in the face, I sold my entire position at just below 5 cents. No more hopium for me.
NVTA is a better proposition than ARTH was, because they have some revenue. But the reality is that genetic testing won’t become a part of mainstream medical practice for a long time. Read my previous posts for more details.
I can not understand why governments let Cryptocurrencies exist.
After all governments around the world use ruining their currencies is how they themselves operate by fooling their population.
(Argentina holds that record count.)
Why allow any competitor (Crypts) exist to spoil their game………….
Cryptos are mathematical fantasies with no intrinsic value, similar to fiat currencies in that respect. Cryptos have taken the appeal of gold away as an indicator of inflation. That fits with the goal of govts in trashing items with tangible value like gold.
That’s a very narrow and short sighted definition of crypto and not considering the utility of it, time to open the mind. IMO, Bitcoin will turn out to be the greatest store of value, inflation negator and wealth creator of our generation, leaving Gold and Silver in its wake. But Etherium will completely revolutionize decentralized finance, which along with the metaverse, is one of the greatest inventions of our generation
Just ask whether any crypto will ever have the tangible value of a man’s suit, as pointed out by jcs below. Store of value is based on tangibility, rather than mathematical abstractions. All it takes is for some sophisticated hacker to wipe out crypto with the right clever clicking. In the Tulip mania, tulips became wildly overpriced, but at least they had some tangible value.
As a speculative investment, cryptos may temporarily outperform precious metals, similar to tulips. But gold and silver will always have tangible value. Crypto, never.
At one time there was this measure of golds value.
An oz. of gold was valued as equal to a “bespoken” Men’s suit from a tailor on that one special street in London.
Good Saturday morning all. A Talking head on One America Network this morning indicated that consensus among financial analysts is that we have peaked at bottom and that markets should be moderately up from here, similar to what Michael Murphy stated on this Radar Report. That said, I am betting that Gold will take hold with its uptrend now and we should be seeing good times in PMs shortly. That’s unless our woke government announces a new gender, for which they are claiming new rights and ESG standards. Just kidding. I’ve been wrong many times on this Gold bull before. I don’t blame anyone shorting my call again. GLTA
Been one helluva month for my favorite investment, NervGen (NGENF). Last month it hit a 52 week low when it briefly dipped under $1.20. Then on June 30, the company announced a deal for a private placement of 10,150,000 units at $1.50 each for gross proceeds of $15, 225,000 (the stock closed at $1.51 the day before the announcement). While NervGen’s drug has had fantastic results in animal models of Spinal Cord Injury, MS and Alzheimer’s and appears safe for humans in Phase 1 trials currently in progress, there were concerns about its cash position being sufficient to get through Phase 2 trials scheduled to begin at the end of the year in the above 3 indications. The private placement eliminates those concerns.
Then this week, on Thursday morning NervGen announced publication of a new study showing dramatic results in a mouse model for stroke. Current treatments for stroke (as ineffictive as they are) require administration no more than 4.5 hours after the Cerebral Vascular Incident. A diagnosis of whether the stroke is hemorrhagic or ischemic is essential prior to such treatment, but is seldom accomplished in that short time frame. NervGen’s treatment was effective even when given 7 DAYS after the stroke!!!
You can read a press release and see a video of the effect here:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220727006174/en/
And read the more detailed article from Cell Reports here:
https://www.cell.com/cell-reports/fulltext/S2211-1247%2822%2900946-9
Bias: NGENF is my biggest investment. GLTA
Does Bio Pub still endorse this stock?
Very very much so.
@Michael I have been on this one, since you first mentioned it. Thanks.
Thanks for your updates. The science in animals is good, but the main risk is how much it applies in humans. Phase 1 in humans will establish doses. Rodents have much faster metabolism and short lifespans than humans, so rodents need much higher doses/kg of body weight than humans. Enzyme systems are different. The biggest species differences are hormones. The nail biting will be settled after phase 2 is done. When will that be concluded, sorry I forgot?
Tomorrow is a big day. They present their trial design for phase 1b/2a for mild cognitive impairment Alzheimer’s. A treatment has the best chances of success in the early stages. Enrollment by the end of this year. When do we expect to hear the results? With this private placement, when in 2023 do they run out of cash?
Interesting read regarding Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman’s take on the situation facing fund managers in Q3 and their need to find, say 20% portfolio upside over the next couple months.
The situation he lays out doesn’t bode well for biotechs for Q3 in my view. If I’m one of those portfolio managers, I’m looking for stocks that are both cheap & have a potential catalyst to move the stock higher. While biotechs are certainly cheap, almost all lack a near term catalyst that would drive any upward movement over the next couple months. And there are plenty of cheap stocks in other sectors, many with positive earnings, that seem like they’d be better options. Given the lack of a catalyst and the need for short-term performance, rotating out of the biotechs in Q3 & reinvesting those funds in stocks more likely to see movement may make sense to those managers. They can always buy the biotechs back in Q4, if they survive the redemptions. At that point, they probably still get a very cheap entry point and have a whole year for the biotech stock to perform.
Fwiw, keep a look out for CYDY.OTC.They recently hired a new CEO. FDA holds will be lifted soon. Very positive results for HIV, and most recently NASH/ fatty liver disease. It bottomed at .25. They have a very safe effective drug named Leronlimab. Good luck to all.
Looks like BA might be a good play till the middle 200’s Any thoughts?
did anyone buy OPTT two weeks ago? any interest now?
Good Morning all. Hold on to your britches gold bugs. Did we just run through $1800/troy oz a minute or so ago? Is this take off time??? I know. My naivete is showing again. I can dream can’t I?
Well, must have been the Pelosi death watch as she is cheered in Taiwan. And the air goes out of the gold.
That was a really risky move on the part of Pelosi IMO. I can’t believe China doesn’t have the same drone capability that the US has. As in picking off top enemies at 30,000 feet. What if China took out Pelosi with a Drone strike? Do you think Biden would start WW3 with China over it? I highly doubt it. And I think China is also in that mind set. Have you ever heard the leadership of China threatening to use the military option if the US does this or that. First China calls the US a paper tiger . Then the US sends an elderly Pelosi to Taiwan in an “in your face” attempt at provocation. Next move , XI has to do something or lose face in the worlds eye’s . Waiting for the next shoe to drop. The only saving grace is they did NOT give any clue as to when she would be there. Now that she has landed and departed, the only reasonable option for XI is to attack Taiwan. Which is what he wanted a reason to do anyway. If that is the case , I hope they are ready and they inflict serious damage on China, to a point where China reconsider’s its invasion.
Remember that she arrived at night and our Pacific fleet was moved up close. Sort of a chicken game. But the Chinese date their power goals over eons.
Their big guy is late in life, so he has to win ASAP. Their national congress is this year, his last chance for immorality.
Who blinks first. Or who fires first. Note that the floating island sites the Chinese build are sinking. A sub can sink them all the way.
Our problem is our fleet has support lines all the way to our west coast while their fleet can row home.
TMS is moving out of town to places in the west.
And Nancy is third in her place in White House immorality.
You mean TSM (not TMS) is moving to the West? Do they have US factories up and running yet?
MM, what is your analysis of TSM? I held on from when you recommended it at $8 about 20 years ago.
I held it for years as well and made nice money on it, but I took the money and ran a few years ago. I didn’t like the political issues then .
My view is keeping the entity by getting it out
of China, which already has a rope about our
necks in digging and processing raw materials.
Human Minds have moved for centuries.
True and all good points. I don’t think Taiwan will be a push over. I was there in the Navy in the early 70’s and was quite impressed with their country/military. So unless that has changed drastically, China will have their hands full if they do invade. And apparently that’s why they haven’t done it already.
An interesting article by a Dr. who is on the advisory board for Akebia(AKBA). He also mentions Ardelyx(ARDX) which I have shares of which has a similar story with the FDA giving a surprise CRL last year. They have an Adcom scheduled for November and I think is a better investment than Akebia. MM, any thoughts on them?
https://medcitynews.com/2022/07/is-the-hif-phi-class-of-next-generation-kidney-drugs-doomed-in-the-u-s/
Why did ARDX get a CRL? Dr. Wish doesn’t see any rational basis for AKBA’s CRL.
Ardelyx (NASDAQ:ARDX) was handed a CRL on July 29. The CRL wasn’t unexpected in July; after the FDA’s July 13 letter flagging deficiencies in the tenapanor NDA, the CRL was almost a certainty. However, before that, nobody thought tenapanor would get rejected. Tenapanor successfully completed three successful trials in over 1000 patients, meeting primary and key secondary endpoints. The company spent the entire month of April in label discussions with the FDA. In June, when the FDA asked for a 3 month extension, all they said was that they wanted Ardelyx to amend certain aspects of its NDA. There was never a talk of issues with the “size of the treatment effect and clinical relevance” of tenapanor – basically questioning the relevance of the biomarker endpoint of the trials – like we saw in the July letter. This almost seems like a multiple personality disorder at the regulatory body, something we have seen over and over again, notably with aducanumab’s controversial approval. There appears to be no monolithic thinking at the FDA in the early stages, until someone at the top makes a final and binding – and often surprising – decision.
Indeed, the tenapanor decision has been met with disbelief and frustration by a number of medical specialists and nephrologists surveyed by Spherix Global Insights:
Another quote from the company press release also concurs:
Wall Street analysts were also disappointed.
Tenapanor’s trial data was very good. A quick discussion is in order to figure out how things may go from here. As I noted in my earlier coverage:
There were some adverse events leading to discontinuations, but analysts, including Piper Jaffray’s Christopher Raymond, saw tenapanor as a potential blockbuster drug, as I noted in my previous article. Raymond had earlier noted that the FDA actively helped Ardelyx design the various trials and that the July 13 letter may indicate the FDA is now objecting to using phosphate levels as a proper biomarker of the relevant clinical outcome.
Thanks. What stupid reason did the FDA give for their CRL on July 29? Sabotage politics as usual.
Liberals–will you ever admit that central govt is not to be trusted on most issues?
OK Folks: Here’s the bump for GOLD. Reason? Politicization of cryptocurrency by regulation by the CFC by the Dems. Let’s see what happens with that. The effort has in mind a global regulation of crypto as well. This should also give a bump to financials who are saying: I told you so.”
You might have noticed that whereas the people making the money formerly worked in NYC. Now it is insiders in DC with government connections are the ones who are RICHER. Of course, I know of 2 folks in California have that benefit of being close to those folks.
Good news on BCRX
Corning Glass has been a high tech wonder for decades, during which I have been a shareholder AND which seldom got much over $40.
Is there any reason they ever make $60?
@jcs: Good question. In a way, they have built the company, over a long time with additions or product sections. The net result has been the creation of fiefdoms and little integration. This gorilla glass and other addtion of glass with integrated electronic applications besides strength has an opportunity for both volume within application and much better profits across applications needs internal innovation, IMHO. Can they break old styles of management? Let’s look at the next quarterly results for better performance in new clothing so to speak.
Nice idea, if Mr Market allows. My problem is what can the bosses (assuming they are there) do. Tell their long time customers contract prices no longer exist. Of course, where do they go but to court.
To MM: I like your comment in the UUUU writeup as it has interesting futures for the need for small Nuclear plants. The new rule is if you do not want one in your neighborhood, you do without electric power.
Of course, DC politicians will go bark early on.
Careful, careful, don’t scare it. But the movement today in NVTA was……hopefully showing some life?
August 9th after the close, can’t wait to hear the second quarter 2022 financial results. Management better take lessons on what to say, HOW to say it, and their lips will move ships and either sink us or get the engines back on and heading in the right direction.
PACB a related company, released earnings yesterday, and though the guidance wasn’t strong enough, the stock still went up today.
The really nice hit I got today was my position in NET. I have been adding to my position for the past several weeks. The aftermarket today was huge with their release of financials.
There are so many great buys in the tech sector out there, it is like we are all starving, and the menu has so many items we want to order. Who do you choose?
Here’s hoping MM gives us some great insight in his report later this evening. I wish he would give us some of his new recommendations.
Cheers to all.
And where’s Michael been? Our resident troll has been too quiet this week. Opie, where are you? Need your insight and comments too.
Flash!!!! @Michael Murphy. Sinema just said yes. Better take a look at WSJ or equivalent> Lots of changes promised to lobbyists. Might want to take an hour or so the rethink this thing. Sounds like a disaster to me.
Gold just up $1.10. Asia futures I’m wishing again
The new Radar Report for 8.4.22 is posted.