Dear New World Investor:
The Fed raised the Fed funds rate ¾ of a percent (75 basis points or bps) to a range of 2.25% to 2.50%. The cumulative rate hike for June and July is the most aggressive since the early 1980s, yet the stock market exploded higher. Their very first sentence makes it clear why: “Recent indicators of spending and production have softened.”
So despite openly recognizing economic growth is softening, the Fed unanimously decided to hike by 75 bps because it’s all about inflation, inflation, and inflation. But stocks and bonds started rallying strongly only after Chairman Powell said: “We are now at levels broadly in line with our estimates of neutral interest rates, and after front-loading our hiking cycle until now we will be much more data dependent going forward.”
The “neutral rate” is the interest rate at which the economy runs at its potential, without either overheating or excessively cooling down. With this 75 bps hike, the Fed just reached its estimate of the neutral rate. They think they aren’t contributing to economic overheating any more. They recognize that further increases put them in actively restrictive territory, which is where they want to be to bring inflation down.
But the bond market knows that every time the Fed becomes restrictive, they break something. So Powell was asked: What about forward guidance? He said: “From here onward, we are fully data dependent.” Boom: he ditched guidance completely.
This is important because over the last few months the bond market has developed a very strong opinion about inflation: It’s going to move down, and very fast. Between July 2023 and 2024, the Consumer Price Index is priced to print at around 2.9%, which roughly equals a Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (the Fed’s chosen measure of inflation) of 2.5%. Basically, at target!
And what is that data the Fed will be seeing?
This Morning – June quarter real GDP -0.9% (We’re in a recession – see below)
July 29 – June Personal Consumption Expenditures Index
August 5 – July payrolls (see below – probably weak)
August 10 – Consumer Price Index (probably less than July’s +9.1%)
August 25 – June quarter real GDP – second estimate
August 26 – July Personal Consumption Expenditures Index
August 26 – Powell speaks at Jackson Hole conference
September 2 – August payrolls (probably weak again)
September 13 – Consumer Price Index (probably less than August for the second month in a row)
September 21 – Next Fed meeting
So if the Fed is not nearly on autopilot anymore, and markets have a strong opinion on inflation and growth collapsing, they can price all assets around this base case scenario. Not surprisingly, Nasdaq and crypto are outperforming. What is the bond market saying? +50 bps in September, +25 bps in November, +25 bps in December, and DONE. The bond market expects 50 bps of cuts in 2023. Peak Fed hawkishness is behind us.
In advance of this morning’s first look at June quarter real GDP, JPMorgan raised their forecast from +0.7% to +1.4%. The Briefing.com consensus raised to +0.5% from -1.6%. The latest Blue Chip Economists consensus was +2.0% in a range from +1.3% to +2.9%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast was -1.2%, and they were directionally right. The actual number was -0.93% and we now have two quarters in a row of negative GDP.
You will see a lot of gaslighting about how that doesn’t mean we are in a recession, because the National Bureau of Economic Research (the official arbiter of when a recession starts and ends) wants to see widespread softness before they make the call. True. But it’s also true that the NBER takes about a year to date recessions and there has never been two down GDP quarters in a row without a recession being declared. So, yes, we are in a recession.
And we’ll probably see another down quarter in September, to be announced on October 27, right before the midterm elections. GDP excluding inventories actually was up 1.1%, but both wholesale and retail inventories were higher than expected even after inventory liquidation provided a 2.0% drag on overall growth. The US economy is ensnared in a classic inventory correction – both Target and Wal-Mart warned us – and inventories will continue to weigh on growth in the September quarter. The inevitable discounting will reduce inflation.
In his press conference, Chairman Powell said he doubts the economy is in recession considering the “very strong labor market.” Really? Initial jobless claims just hit an eight-month high and we see new layoff announcements every day.
The good news is if this is a mild recession that’s over before the end of the year, as seems likely, on average the stock market has bottomed about four months before the end of a recession. It’s pretty consistent timing, although 2020 obviously was an outlier.
The S&P 500 added 1.8% since last Thursday to close well above 4,000. It needs 292 more points to be labeled a new bull market. The Index still is down 14.6% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9% and is down 22.3% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 2.0% and is down 16.6% in 2022.
About 180 companies – 35% of the S&P 500 – reported June quarter results this week, including much of big tech. The blackout period for stock buybacks ends when results are reported and companies are eager to buy their stock at these levels. At the same time, the hedge funds gross/net leverage is the lowest since the pandemic crash, just in time for Powell to turn data dependent. And now the chase begins.
Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, CEO of our Mongolia Growth Group recommendation and a hedge fund manager himself, wrote an insightful Twitter thread:
2) Look at 2022, many large hedge funds are down 25%+. Year-end redemption notices start Nov 1. These guys have 3 months to turn it around or get redeemed. Everyone gets redemptions from time to time. Losing half your Assets Under Management because you were long Ponzi is existential to your career.
3) Guys will fight like mad to make it back. This isn’t about performance for performance’s sake, this is about survival. You have to get to flat or your business goes poof. Down 25% and it’s poof anyway, so you take a shot. If you guess wrong and end down 40% you were dead anyway.
4) Therefore, guys are forced to take shots on goal. Fix it by Nov. 1, or lose the AUM. How do you fix it? Certainly not in cash. You can bet big on the short side, maybe use options, but hard to put up big numbers that way. Instead, they’re forced to play long-sided.
5) Every data point shows that funds are massively underweight on long exposure. Huge cash positions, low gross, lower net exposure. These guys will all be forced to pivot long. Relative performance is cute when you’re down 5% and market is down 25%. It means nothing when down 20% versus 25%.
6) The FOMC will do its thing, everyone will see a few hours/days of whipsaw action, but in the end, guys need exposure to save their careers. They are gonna have to buy it. Doesn’t matter what Fed or economy or the dollar or rates or GDP does. Guys have 3 months to stack basis points.
7) Think we get a sizable rally into the fall and sort it out from then. Guys just have to be long… As for me, I’m pretty damn long. Have highest exposure since the bottom in March 2020. Laid into GDP sensitive assets in late-June. Felt so confident that I’m on vacation.
8) It is amazing just how many dominant, near-monopoly assets are 2x-5x run-rate Free Cash Flow. These are companies with 30%+ Return On Invested Capital. Good businesses haven’t been this cheap except February 2009 and March 2020. Difference is that those times were scary. Now isn’t scary. We may have a recession…
9) Who cares about recession? You don’t buy amazing companies for the next quarter or three. You buy them because of long-term compounding. When they give away great businesses this cheap, you simply stack them and ignore next Q. They will eventually be valued on stabilized numbers.
10) Anyway, we all like to talk about stuff that makes us look smart (macro/fx/single stocks/etc.) That’s fine and good. We don’t talk enough about who’s screwed and has 100 days to save his career. Cornered animals do crazy things.
I think the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is about to go under 20, probably on its way to 12.
The fractal dimension is solidly in consolidation mode after the big decline in the first half of the year. Ideally, it will get fully consolidated by the end of September and then release the energy into a big upturn to end the year.
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
AAPL Apple – September new iPhone introduction
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, July 29
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am
Tuesday, August 2
SII – Sprott – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
GILD – Gilead – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
APTO – Aptose – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Wednesday, August 3
CMPS – Compass – 8:00am – Earnings conference call
CDE – Coeur Mining – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
FSLY – Fastly – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, August 4
SCYX – ScyNexis – Through 8/6 – Infectious Diseases Society for Obstetrics and Gynecology Annual Meeting
AG – First Majestic – Unspec. – Earnings release; no conference call
CDE – Coeur Mining – 11:00am – Earnings conference call
AKBA – Akebia – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
Friday, August 5
July payrolls – 8:30am – +260,000 expected; June was +372,000
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
“We are maintaining our SPECULATIVE BUY rating & C$25 Target Price.
Dr Jacky Smith is a key opinion leader (KOL) in chronic cough. An additional statistical analysis of Algernon’s Phase 2a data in IPF patients with chronic cough confirmed Dr. Smith’s original positive impression of the study.
“Additional Positive Phase 2a Cough Data – Analyzed by Dr. Jacky Smith
Dr. Jacky Smith, Professor of Respiratory Medicine at the University of Manchester, and an Honorary Consultant at Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust reviewed the Algernon Phase 2a data in IPF patients with chronic cough. Dr Jacky Smith is an expert in chronic cough. As an example, Dr. Smith has been instrumental in helping Bellus advance their chronic cough candidate – hence her opinion on Algernon’s cough candidate should not be taken lightly.
“After conducting additional statistical review of the data, Dr. Smith noted that Algernon cough data showed a significant improvement in mean objective 24-hour and waking cough counts after 4 and 12 weeks.”
C$25, huh? I’ll take that. AGNPF is a Hold for the Phase 2b IPF/chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: 2022
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $16.18) started a Phase 2 trial of psilocybin therapy in anorexia nervosa. This is a 60-patient, multi-center, double-blind, randomized trial investigating the efficacy of COMP360 psilocybin, administered with psychological support. It will be at four world-leading research institutes in the UK and US – King’s College London, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, University of California San Diego School of Medicine, and Sheppard Pratt.
Anorexia is a serious mental illness with the highest mortality rate of all psychiatric disorders because of medical complications and suicide. There are no approved drug treatments. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2023
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.51) announced new clinical data from their Phase 1/2 trial of MDNA11 that showed preliminary evidence of anti-cancer activity in patients with advanced solid tumors who have been unresponsive to other treatments. Data from the trial’s initial and mid-stage dose escalation cohorts showed signs of tumor control in four of ten evaluable patients with hard to treat cancers such as sarcomas and pancreatic cancer that are also highly resistant to immunotherapies. They have opened enrollment for the fifth dose-escalation cohort. Buy MDNA under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: mid-2022
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $6.39) presented more data from their Phase 3 multiple sclerosis trials to the Congress of the European Academy of Neurology. The PDUFA date is December 28, and I don’t think we’ll hear anything else meaningful before then. Buy TGTX under $7 for a target price in a buyout of $25 or more after the MS drug is approved.
Primary Risk: FDA turns the MS drug down.
Clinical stage of lead product: Filed for approval.
Probable time of next FDA approval: September 28, 2022
Probable time of next financing: December 2022 quarter
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $157.35) reported June third quarter revenues up 1.9% from last year to $82.96 billion, in line with estimates. They earned $1.20 per share, beating the $1.15 estimate but down from last year’s $1.30.
Products revenue of $63.36 billion was flat with last year’s $63.95 billion. iPhone revenue of $40.67 billion, a June quarter record, was better than Street estimates and up from last year’s $39.57 billion. Mac revenue of $7.38 billion fell from last year’s $8.24 billion, as did iPad revenue of $7.22 billion, down from $7.37 billion, and wearables, home and accessories at $8.08 billion versus $8.8 billion.
Service revenue was a real bright spot at $19.6 billion, up 12.6% from last year’s $17.48 billion. The company said supply constraints were less than anticipated at the start of the quarter and September quarter revenue growth is expected to accelerate. Wall Street liked that and the stock is up about 4% on the aftermarket. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Corning (GLW – $36.29) reported June quarter revenues up 7.4% from last year to $3.76 billion, just under the $3.79 billion estimate. Pro forma earnings of 57¢ per share beat the 56¢ estimate even though three of their significant demand drivers – panel maker utilization, automotive production, and smartphone sales – were down, thanks to their “More Corning” content opportunities and strength in optical and solar. Their gross profit margin increased to 37.5%, mostly due to price increases and a favorable product mix. They had $440 million in free cash flow.
On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they guided the September quarter slightly below consensus: $3.65 billion to $3.85 billion in core sales versus the consensus for $3.79 billion, with core earnings of 51¢ to 55¢ versus the 56¢ consensus. They now expect full-year sales to “slightly exceed” $15 billion versus the $15.35 billion consensus, growing in a range of 6% to 8%, with core earnings growing in line with sales to $2.19 to $2.24 versus the $2.33 consensus.
Optical Communications was up a whopping 22% from last year and 10% from the March quarter to $1.3 billion.
80%-owned Hemlock Semiconductor, although small ($418 million), was up 45% from last year and is a hidden gem in the Corning story.
I completely agree with these two SeekingAlpha articles, Corning: A Sleeper Gem To Own For The Next 10+ Years and Buy Corning For 3% In Dividend Income And Growth. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My first target is $60 in 2023 .
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $60.40) said the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use of the European Commission recommended granting Marketing Authorization for Veklury (remdesivir) without specific obligations around oxygen or other requirements. Veklury can be used anytime a doctor thinks it should be.
The company also said Tecartus, Kite’s CAR T-cell therapy, got a positive opinion in relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia. It is the first and only CAR T therapy in Europe to receive a positive CHMP opinion. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $70 for a first target of $100.
Meta Platforms (META – $160.72) reported June quarter revenues of $28.82 billion, a bit under the $28.95 million consensus estimate. This was its first ever year-over-year decline in revenue, but that was expected. Earnings per share of $2.46 missed by nine cents. The big problem was September quarter guidance for $26.0 billion to $28.5 billion in revenue, well under the $30.3 billion expected.
Advertising revenue by user geography is holding up, except in Europe:
Daily active users are pretty flat:
Here is the revenue problem: Average revenue per user has fallen due to the Apple iOS privacy changes:
And here is part of the earnings problem. Zuckerberg is pouring huge amounts of money into their metaverse initiative. It shows up in both R&D and CapEx:
But we want him to do this. The metaverse is the next gigantic consumer market, and Meta, Apple, and maybe Snap will be the early leaders. On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE and HERE), management said their family of apps now reach more than 3.6 billion people monthly across all their services. The number of people using Facebook daily continues to grow, including in the US, although they saw an expected decline in monthly actives due to internet blocks related to the war in Ukraine. Engagement trends on Facebook have generally been stronger than anticipated, and strong Reels growth, their TikTok competitor, is continuing to drive engagement across Facebook and Instagram.
Zuckerberg said: “Advances in AI enable us to deliver better personalized ads while using less data. It powers automated messaging and creation tools that let businesses run better performing campaigns — which is particularly important for small businesses that don’t have big marketing departments and that have been hit hard by Apple’s policy changes. Overall, there’s a lot of work to do here – and a lot of the investment is in AI compute capex – but I’m confident that if we invest in building the new infrastructure we need, then we’re going to come out of this downturn with even more superior ad products and a meaningful technology advantage over other industry players.”
Exactly. META is a Buy under $250 for a $400 target in 2023 or 2024.
“Back in 2010, we unveiled the “SoftBank’s Next 30-Year Vision” to further clarify our unwavering commitment to our founding philosophy, expressed in the Philosophy, Information Revolution—Happiness for everyone. More recently, we started describing ourselves as a Vision Capitalist for the Information Revolution to underscore our role as a strategic investment holding company.
“The SoftBank Group Report is the latest in this series of efforts. The new format presents our corporate story, showing how our strategy and business model will deliver our core philosophy and vision, how we will build value, and how we will enable 300 years of sustained growth.”
So if you are looking for a stock to buy and hold for 300 years, SoftBank is your answer. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.
Fastly (FSLY – $11.41) announced a reseller partnership with Human Security to offer Fastly customers industry-leading bot protection as well as fraud and account abuse prevention to keep cybercriminals out of their online applications and services. FSLY is a Buy up to $20 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.55) will supply its high-efficiency, radiation-hardened solar cell assemblies for three Lockheed Martin spacecraft designed to provide resilient space-based global missile warning capabilities to meet evolving threats from adversaries under the United States Space Force’s Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) program. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Gold ($1,752.60) has bounced off the 61.8% retracement level at $1,705 and still is fully consolidated. A big uptrend is just a question of when, not if.
Miners & Related
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.93) said both Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass, Lewis have recommended that SAND shareholders vote for the acquisition of Nomad Royalty. I agree. Upon completion of the acquisition, existing Sandstorm shareholders will own approximately 73% of the combined company.
Institutional Shareholder Services said: “The transaction makes strategic sense as it is expected to provide immediate cash flow per share and net asset value per share accretion to Sandstorm. The combination should further enhance Sandstorm’s portfolio through the addition of low-cost assets from Nomad, with an expectation that production will grow greater than 85% between 2022 and 2025. The combined company is anticipated to have increased public float, liquidity, greater financial capacity, and improved access to capital.”
Nolan Watson is a great royalty/streaming CEO, which is a major reason I recommended the stock. Everyone should own Sandstorm before any other precious metals investment. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $23,798.92) is rallying with other risk-on assets, but not as much as I expected – so far. I think this will turn into a major upturn and this is a great time to buy it or the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $97.13
JPMorgan warned that oil isn’t pricing in a recession, but that risk is growing: “…while historical evidence suggests that demand is well supported as long as global growth remains positive, oil price tends to fall in all recessions by 30% to 40%. Under a 1.5% global growth scenario, global oil demand will grow by 0.6 mbd (million barrels a day) in 2023, 0.6 mbd below our current forecast. This would result in a 1.4 mbd surplus in 2023 with stocks normalizing back to 2015- 2019 average levels by the end of 2023.” Their base case remains intact: “Global oil price in the low-$100s in the second half of 2022 and high-$90s in 2023.”
I think they are really wrong. Average annual oil demand growth from 2000 to 2019 was quite steady around 1.2 to 1.3 mbd. It grows a bit faster than population growth over time, which is 1.1% to 1.2%. Due to pandemic-related lockdowns, demand has been way below trend over the last three years.
Taking 2019 as a base and making demand grow at 1.2 mbd per year, we should be at 104.2 mbd of demand for 2022. But the latest estimate is 99.2 mbd. So we are 5.0 mbd below trend already. Estimates for 2023 are for demand at 101.3 mbd versus a potential of 105.4 mbd. That is 4.1 mbd below trend. For comparison sake, the largest underperformance relative to trend was in 2009 at 2.5 mbd. Very weak demand is already in the forecasts. I think oil demand is more likely to surprise to the upside, even in a weak economy, assuming we can get enough supply.
Which is a major issue. Last week OPEC released its latest Monthly Oil Market Report and warned that global oil demand is set to rise to levels that would test its production capacity. They said the amount of oil that the cartel needs to produce in order to cover global demand could rise to 32 million barrels daily in 2023. That would be up from 28.7 million bpd as of this June, which means OPEC would need to boost its production by over 3 million bpd within the next year and a half to cover demand, coming mostly from China and India.
What they didn’t say, but what you and I know, is they don’t have the spare capacity to do it. According to conservative estimates, OPEC’s spare production capacity could slip below one million barrels daily by the end of this year.
Demand still recovering from pandemic lows + a shortfall of supply = much higher oil prices. Got OIL?
As for natural gas, Europe has shale rock formations with lots of natural gas, they just refuse to drill it.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $33.23) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.53) will benefit from the demand for uranium. In its June quarter earnings conference call, leading uranium miner Cameco (CCJ) said they are seeing “unprecedented demand.”
The new $370 Billion Senate energy security and climate change deal provides a ”Zero-Emission Nuclear Production Tax Credit” and allocates $700 million to develop a US supply of High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium fuel for advanced reactors plus $150 million for nuclear lab infrastructure. You can download a copy of the 725-page “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022” HERE. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
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Less than half the number of pre-pandemic office workers are returning to business districts consistently. There’s a huge glut of available office space…
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Your resisting fiat news Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
New World Investor
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.76) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.57) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $16.18) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.14) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $2.08) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $1.99) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.51) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.38) – Buy under $2, target price $20, then $50
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $6.39) – Buy under $7, target price $25+
Apple Computer (AAPL – $157.35) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $36.29) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $60.40) – Buy under $70, target price $100
Meta (FB – $160.72) – Buy under $250, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $20.93) – Buy under $25, target price $50
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $41.91) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $11.41) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $26.00) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.27) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.86) – Buy under $10, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.55) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $3.05) – Buy under $6, target price $50
A Short-Sale or REO House – $447,000 – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – ($16.61) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $22.78) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $28.77) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $16.58) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $25.92) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.03) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $7.47) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.44) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.93) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $37.04) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $23,798.92) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $14.83) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,725.06) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $12.76) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $31.25) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $35.59) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $16.10) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $29.95) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.07) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.30) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $33.23) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.53) – Buy under $8; $30 target
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.51) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.40) – Hold for FDA meeting
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.05) – Hold for buyout
CohBar (CWBR – $0.18) – Hold for human trials of CB5138-3
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