Radar Report – 8.4.22

Michael Murphy
Aug 22

Dear New World Investor:

The lesson of this market since the June 17 low is when stocks rally and very few investors can say why, and it looks absurd and un-fundamental, sometime those are the most vicious rallies. Everyone thinks the next lesson will be a dramatic reversal from mid-August to mid-October that pulls the rug out from under the few bulls and gives all the bears and underinvested hedge funds a chance to get long. Well, maybe.

But when that many people are looking for an opportunity to get invested in time to make back some of their first-half losses before the redemptions window opens on November 1, my experience is that dips are mild and short, frustrating the underinvested even more. Until sentiment turns at least neutral, let alone bullish, even bad news can’t knock this market down for long.

Speaking of which, sentiment is starting to turn. The CNN Sentiment Index has gone from extreme fear a month ago to fear a week ago to neutral:

Click for larger graphic

And there are just a few more bulls and a few less bears in the American Association of Individual Investors survey:

Click for larger graphic

And we did get a bit of bad news. The June Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, came in a little hotter than expected. The headline number was up 1.0% from May and up 6.8% year-over-year, just above the 6.7% estimate and the +6.3% in May. The core PCE was up 0.6% month-over-month versus the 0.5% estimate and +0.3% in May. Year-over-year it was up 4.8% versus 4.7% estimate and +4.7% in May.

That’s the kind of number that should have had various Fed members threatening another 100 basis point (one percentage point) Fed funds increase at the September 21 meeting. But yesterday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said it would be “reasonable” for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month if the economy evolves as expected. Are they seeing the slowdown everyone else is seeing? We should get more insight when Fed Chairman Powell addresses the annual Jackson Hole Conference on August 26.

Earnings season continued with solid reports lifting stocks. According to FactSet, 73% of S&P 500 companies beat the Wall Street consensus expectations. If earnings continue to show mid-to-high single digit growth it’s a meaningful positive because one of the pillars of the bears’ case is that earnings estimates have to be dramatically cut. The Institute of Supply Management index of business conditions in July rose to a three-month high of 56.7%, showing the economy continues to expand despite growing headwinds. US factory orders rose 2% in June, well above the consensus forecast of 1.2%.

At the same time, JPMorgan pointed out that the S&P 500’s Price/Earnings multiple on next-12-months earnings bottomed out around 15.5x in June, marking a drop of nearly 7x (see graphic) from its January peak. The decline in stock valuations since the start of the year already has exceeded the average pullback of other recessionary periods over the past 30 years. This year’s pullback would be the second-biggest to follow a recession.

Click for larger graphic

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 2.0% since last Thursday and broke back over the 100-day moving average at 4118. The Index is down 12.9% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 4.6% and is down 18.7% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 1.8% and is down 15.1% in 2022.

JPMorgan said hedge funds have not chased this rally yet. They said buying plus leverage changes have been somewhat limited, and while some short covering has occurred, it’s hardly what one would call extreme. Single-name short exposure is still at a two+ year high, as the amount of covering seen in the past few weeks has only marginally offset the amount of shorts that were added in the first half of 2022. They said perhaps some funds are capturing this move higher, but not likely most. These big buyers still need to buy stocks.

Click for larger graphic

What, me worry? Yes – always. I think the market already has discounted a potential 15%-20% decline in next-12-months earnings forecasts and is looking through the trough. But the market can focus on a better future as rates come down from a potentially more dovish Fed only until it is proven wrong by the estimates collapsing, which they always do in an actual recession. If there is going to be another decline it is likely during September/October when third-quarter results further disappoint and companies can no longer push out inevitable cuts. So I will be watching the third-quarter GDP forecast extra closely.

Speaking of which, right now it looks like a weak but mildly up quarter at +1.4%:

Click for larger graphic

Stock buyback season is in full swing. US buybacks rebounded in 2021, after a very subdued 2020. This year again, we have seen strong momentum in buyback announcements so far. This chart shows S&P500 announced buybacks.

Click for larger graphic

Yet buybacks as a share of earnings before taxes are still low. There are more to come.

Click for larger graphic

The fractal dimension is consolidating rapidly. If the Index can break decisively through 4277, a 50% retracement of this year’s decline, the hedge funds will panic buy.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
AAPL Apple – September new iPhone introduction
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them. Eight earnings calls!

Friday, August 5
July payrolls – 8:30am – +250,000 expected

Monday, August 8
SFTBY – Softbank – 3:30am – Earnings conference call

Tuesday, August 9
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
Short Interest – After the close
FSLY – Fastly – 1:00pm – Jefferies Industrials Conference
INO – Inovio – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
NVTA – Invitae – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
VLD – Velo3D – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call

Wednesday, August 10
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am – +8.9% expected versus +9.1% in June; core +6.1% expected versus +5.9%.
RKLB – Rocket Lab – 12:00pm – BofA Securities SMID Cap Ideas Conference
FSLY – Fastly – 2:30pm – Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference
APTO – Aptose – 3:30pm – Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference

Thursday, August 11
SAND – Sandstorm – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
RKLB – Rocket Lab – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call

Friday, August 12
SAND – Sandstorm – 11:30am – Earnings conference call

The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.

The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.


Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.72) was invited to present the results from its Phase 2a trial of Ifenprodil for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and chronic cough, at the 9thAmerican Cough Conference in June, 2023. (The conference is only held every other year.) AGNPF is a Hold for the Phase 2b IPF/chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: 2022

Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.83) reported a $10.6 million or 11¢ per share loss for the June quarter, down from a 15¢ loss last year and a bit better than the -13¢ expectation. On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), they said HM43239 has shown a preliminary response rate of 43% among relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia patients with FLT3 mutations who failed prior therapy with FLT3 inhibitors, and this gives them a path to approval. They have had complete remissions and excellent safety data across three dose levels and multiple genotypic sub-populations.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is not a single-mutation disease, but rather a highly heterogeneous cancer that can emerge from a different spectrum of genetic and epigenetic alterations in each patient. For this reason, Aptose’s HM43239 was designed as a highly targeted myeloid kinase inhibitor to suppress specific pathways operative in AML and to treat the disease in multiple sub-populations of AML, rather than treating a single target and a prescriptive sub-population that generally leads to rapid mutational escape. The company plans to take HM43239 into an expansion trial beginning before yearend as a single agent, and then in combination therapy, in relapsed/refractory AML patients as a planned segue into registrational trials for accelerated approval.

They finished the quarter with $62.4 million in cash, enough to get them into the first quarter of 2024. APTO is a Buy under $2.50 for a $30 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1a
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Mid- to late-2023

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $17.50) reported a 50¢ per share loss for the June quarter, much better than the 61¢ loss expected. On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said: “Following our end of Phase 2 meeting with FDA, we have submitted our Phase 3 protocols and they are under review. We are pleased with the progress and remain on track to start our Phase 3 clinical program this year. We also continue to expand our clinical development of COMP360 therapy with the commencement of a Phase 2 study in anorexia nervosa, a condition of significant unmet need for which there are no FDA-approved pharmacological treatment options.”

They are going to reveal the Phase 3 trial design at an Investor Day on October 12 and then start it. They finished the quarter with $207.2 million in cash, enough to fund them into 2024. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: Mid- to late-2023

Invitae (NVTA – $2.10) reports next Tuesday and if the new CEO can show a meaningful expense reduction the stock should pop. I’ve been nibbling at it, especially anytime it is under $2. The consensus expects $136.85 million in revenue with a loss of 76¢ per share. Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
   Clinical stage of lead product: NM
   Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Not needed

ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.75) said the FDA accepted their supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) to expand the Brexafemme label to include prevention of recurrent vaginal yeast infections and gave them Priority Review with a a November 30 PDUFA date. Brexa will be the first and only therapy approved in the US for both the treatment of vulvovaginal candidiasis (VVC) and the prevention of recurrent VVC. Buy SCYX under $2 for a first target price of $20 now that Brexafemme is approved and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
   Probable time of next financing: 2023 or never

Biotech MegaShift

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $0.41) reported June quarter Auryxia revenues of $43.7 million, up 32.4% from last year. They raised their 2022 guidance by $5 million to a range of $170 million to $175 million.

Total revenue of $126.8 million, up 139.6% from last year, included the $80.1 million break-up fee from Otsuka. Revenue from operations of $46.7 million was short of the $49.7 million consensus estimate.

They reported earnings of 15¢ per share including the Otsuka payment. Excluding that, they lost about 26¢ per share compared to the consensus expectation for a 33¢ loss.

In July, they completed an end-of-review conference with the FDA, which is the first step in the process to determine the path for approval of vadadustat as a treatment for anemia due to chronic kidney disease in diabetes patients on dialysis. They don’t have the FDA’s notes back yet, but as soon as they do they’ll tell us what’s up.

In the meantime, they have completed a 42% reduction in force to cut operating expenses. They hope to manage the company on existing cash and future cash flow from Auryxia. They finished the quarter with $173.9 million in cash, including the Otsuka payment. AKBA is a Hold for the FDA meeting on vadadustat.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA filed
   Probable time of next FDA approval: Unknown
   Probable time of next financing: Unknown

Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $165.81) sold $5.5 billion in bonds to fund stock buybacks and dividends. The order book peaked at $23 billion and the company only had to pay 118 basis points over the Treasury rate. Everybody wants Apple bonds. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Corning (GLW – $36.49) got a nice write-up on SeekingAlpha. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My first target is $60 in 2023 .

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $61.91) reported another excellent quarter and this is going to continue for several years. June quarter revenues of $6.26 billion were only up 0.6% from last year but beat the $5.87 billion estimate. Pro forma earnings of $1.58 per share beat by six cents. Increased sales of HIV and oncology products offset decreased sales of Veklury (remdesivir) and hepatitis C drugs.

On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management increased 2022 revenue guidance from a range of $23.8-$24.3 billion to $24.5-$25.0 billion. They increased pro forma earnings per share guidance from $6.20-$6.70 to $6.35-$6.75, compared to the $6.58 consensus.

Gilead ended the quarter with $7.0 billion in cash. Today they announced a $405 million cash buyout of UK-based MiroBio, which has a portfolio of immune inhibitory receptor agonists to restore immune balance to treat autoimmune diseases. It will reduce this year’s earnings by 30¢-35¢. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $70 for a first target of $100.

Meta Platforms (META – $170.75) asked Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, BofA, and Barclays to hold investor meetings for a potential bond sale, the company’s first. After the Apple results, I’m not surprised! After the close today they sold $10 billion in debt to fund stock buybacks and metaverse investments, along with their $40.5 billion in cash. They bought back $5.1 billion in stock in the June quarter and still have $24.3 billion to go. META is a Buy under $250 for a $400 target in 2023 or 2024. All aboard!

SoftBank (SFTBY – $21.37) raised $22 billion through forward sales of one-third of its Alibaba (BABA) holdings.

Click for larger graphic

SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Other Tech

Fastly (FSLY – $11.58) reported June quarter revenues up 20.6% from last year to $102.52 million, beating the consensus estimate for $101.6 million. But they had disappointing profit margins for the second quarter in a row and reported a 23¢ per share pro forma loss, considerably worse than the -17¢ expectation.

On the conference call (INVESTOR SUPPLEMENT HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), they guided the September quarter to $102-$105 million in revenue, above the $101.16 million consensus. But they guided the pro forma loss to -15¢ to -18¢, worse than the consensus expectation for a 14¢ loss.

The story was similar for the whole year. They guided 2022 revenues to $415-$425 million, above the $411.96 million consensus. But they expect pro forma earnings of -63¢ to -68¢, below the -56¢ consensus.

The 50.4% gross profit margin was substantially down from $57.6% last year, but the company expects to see “meaningful” increases for the remainder of 2022 towards the low to mid-50s. Management said: “One of the key initiatives we have undertaken in 2022 is the deployment of our new architecture for key metro regions. As previously discussed, we believe we will achieve material gross margin leverage by doubling down our efforts on server efficiency with this new architecture, which is coupled to our proprietary software development. As discussed previously, we have been running duplicate sites, which is a gross margin headwind…Our gross margin declines are an area of focus, and we remain committed to taking the necessary steps to see this improve. Like last quarter, the pricing dynamics in the business have not materially changed and have not been a major contributor to our recent decline.”

Yesterday they announced the new CEO, Todd Nightingale. He was Executive Vice President and General Manager of Enterprise Networking and Cloud at Cisco – a heavy hitter. He managed business strategy and development efforts for Cisco’s multi-billion-dollar networking portfolio. FSLY is a Buy up to $20 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $5.45) successfully launched the second of two back-to-back National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) missions. The NROL-199 mission launched on the Electron rocket from Pad B at Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 today, carrying a payload designed, built, and operated by the NRO in partnership with the Australian Department of Defense. This mission follows the successful delivery to orbit of its predecessor NROL-162 three weeks earlier

These national security missions, combined with the successful launch of the Capstone mission to the Moon for NASA on June 28, make up a record launch cadence for the company of three successful Electron launches in just over five weeks. The turnaround between NROL-162 and today’s NROL-199 launch is the shortest time between national security missions by a small launch provider, setting a new standard in responsive space launches. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Velo3D (VLD – $3.67) said StarHagen, a provider of high-quality production parts for aerospace companies, has joined the Velo3D Contract Manufacturer Network with the purchase of a Sapphire printer calibrated to print in Inconel 625, a nickel-based superalloy designed for high-strength, and to resist high temperatures and corrosion. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,808.40) broke above $1,800 and is getting even more consolidated. If it can get over $1,842 for good, the next move up is going to blow our socks off.

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.17) reported June quarter revenues down 5.0% from last year to $204.12 million, but ahead of the $201.25 million estimate. The pro forma loss of five cents was worse than the estimate for a one-cent loss. On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management reaffirmed 2022 guidance for gold and silver production. As with almost all of my gold and silver recommendations, it’s all up to the price of precious metals. (The major exceptions to that statement are Sandstorm (SAND), where the kicker is future volume increases from current deals, and Sprott (SII), where the kicker is assets under management.)

They had strong quarterly production increases at the Kensington, Wharf, and Rochester mines. Kensington’s gold production increased by 23% from the March quarter, driven by an all-time quarterly record mill throughput. Wharf’s gold production increased by 15%. Rochester’s silver and gold production increased by 5% and 37%, respectively.

They updated their full-year site level cost guidance to reflect inflationary pressures, and they’ve decided to increase their planned 2022 exploration investment by ~$11 million thanks to positive drilling results at the Kensington, Palmarejo and Silvertip mines. That’s good news.

Management said the ongoing expansion at the Rochester mine in Nevada remains on-track for completion in mid-2023. CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

First Majestic (AG – $8.05) reported June quarter revenues up 3.4% from last year to $159.4 million, just under the $159.94 million estimate. The pro forma loss of two cents missed the consensus estimate for breakeven.

As usual, there was no conference call. Total production of 7.7 million silver equivalent ounces was up 20% compared to last year. Total production consisted of 2.8 million ounces of silver and 59,391 ounces of gold.

After the end of the quarter they repurchased 100,000 common shares at an average price of C$8.52 per share. They ended the quarter with $259.3 million in cash. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sprott Inc. (SII – $36.10) reported June quarter revenues down 20.1% from last year to $25.08 million, with earnings of three cents a share. On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said Assets Under Management (AUM) were $21.9 billion at the end of June, down $1.7 billion or 7% from the end of March but up $1.5 billion or 7% from December 31. The AUM was hit by market value depreciation across their fund products, yet they maintained strong sales momentum, reporting approximately $0.8 billion in net sales during the quarter and $2.2 billion in net sales for the first half of 2022.

Whitney George, the new CEO, said: “Our resilient business model allows us to invest through the cycles irrespective of market conditions. We are actively developing new products in all of our asset management businesses. Notably, we continue to build scale in our ETF business through the completion of the previously announced acquisition of the North Shore Global Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) and, the recently announced launch of the Sprott ESG Gold ETF (SESG), the world’s first ETF to exclusively source and refine gold from globally recognized leaders in ESG based on special criteria developed by Sprott.”

Buy SII under $40 for a $70 target price.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $22,659.98) has left the $20,000 level behind and seems to have good support at $20,000. Bitcoin is supported by the world’s largest collection of computer power. To say that has no value is kind of mind-boggling.

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Oil – $88.15

Oil dropped as US gasoline dropped, even though it’s summer driving season. As I’ve been saying, demand destruction is here, even though gasoline is down from ~$5.00 to ~$4.00 a gallon.

Click for larger graphic

But let’s get real. Vacations you can postpone. But heating your house in winter? Supplying electricity to companies that need to function? As Europe teeters on the precipice of an all-out energy disaster, the price-dampening effects of Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases and the temporary Freeport liquefied natural gas export terminal outage are likely to be reversed by fall. Commodity markets are not priced correctly for the global BTU crisis coming this winter.

Brent oil is currently trading below its 200-day moving average. We haven’t seen oil close below the longer-term moving average in a very long time. This will not last. Yesterday, OPEC+ announced a very small 100,000 barrels a day increase in their oil output goal – a pathetic 0.1% of global demand – as their response to President Biden’s request for them to pump more. It is one of the smallest increases since OPEC quotas were introduced in 1982. Raad Alkadiri, managing director for energy, climate, and sustainability at Eurasia Group, said: “That is so little as to be meaningless. From a physical standpoint, it is a marginal blip. As a political gesture, it is almost insulting.”

And as I’ve been showing, they can’t meet their production goals anyway. Got OIL?

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.

The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $30.74) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.

* * * * *

Richard Wagner – Rienzi Overture

* * * * *

Your knowing that Biology is Eating the World Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.83) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
  Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.33) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $17.50) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.48) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
  Inovio (INO – $2.28) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $2.10) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $1.57) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.75) – Buy under $2, target price $20, then $50

Other Biotech
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $6.45) – Buy under $7, target price $25+

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $165.81) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $36.49) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $61.91) – Buy under $70, target price $100
  Meta (FB – $170.57) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $21.37) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Other Tech
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $43.79) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $11.58) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $27.92) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.31) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.89) – Buy under $10, target price $20 to $30
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $5.45) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $3.67) – Buy under $6, target price $50

  A Short-Sale or REO House – $447,000 – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($20.16) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $23.14) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $29.41) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $16.83) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $26.31) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.17) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $8.05) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.47) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.89) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $36.10) – Buy under $40, target price $70

  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $22,659.98) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $13.99) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,661.32) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $11.77) – Buy

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $31.96) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $34.57) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $15.50) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $29.24) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.05) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.27) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
  iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $30.74) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.70) – Buy under $8; $30 target

These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.72) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.41) – Hold for FDA meeting
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.05) – Hold for buyout
  CohBar (CWBR – $0.18) – Hold for human trials of CB5138-3

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

Copyright ©GwynRoseLLC 2022

New World Investor Mastermind Group

1. Post unto others as you would have them post unto you.
2. Keep it clean, like a 1950s family television show. Your alter ego can run free on Twitter.
3. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS! If you don’t like the stock, don’t trash the person. Everyone is responsible for their own due diligence and investments.
4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind. Again, NO PERSONAL ATTACKS!
5. The investment implications of something going on in politics or religion is OK.
6. Of course, there’s never a reason to slur someone based on race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, or country of national origin.
7. Please, no snark!

Print This Post Print This Post
Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments



MM, could you please comment on the SD Q2 report? Thanks.

Just answered your ill-informed comment on prior thread.

In a few months, we will know who is right “well” informed El Capitan Nemo.

Just stop reading the MSM bullcrap: we do not have “few months” this is ending much sooner. VSU is losing 500 KIA and 1000+WIA daily, no army can sustain that for a “a few months” not even Zelensky’s “million-man army”.

Also, and more importantly, stop reading your propaganda sources and start making plans to save yourself and your family. Thanks to the USA increasingly chaotic, toxic and self destructive internal politics, it is clear the US is looking to the new “projects” in Ukraine and Taiwan to replace Iraq and Afghanistan. Warmongering is all the rage in DC, nobody talks about peace anymore. On the current track, the USA and China are 100% bound to engage in a nuclear exchange within the foreseeable future. “PRAEMONITOS, PRAEMUNITUS”.

Last edited 4 days ago by El Capitan Nemo

The only saving grace would be if China and Russia (partners in crime) realize that war is unproductive for all parties. Everyone wants to make money, even commies, but war is not the way to do it. Even amongst peaceful US companies, imprudent corporate takeovers rarely work out. Most teenagers with raging hormones and egos quickly stop fights before anyone gets hurt. Even the winner gets hurt a little.

Question, what is $46 billion in profits in the second quarter? That’s the profits generated by 3 western oil companies. Exxon, Chevron and Shell. That doesn’t count the rest. Just sayin. Excellent RR , MM. Thanks for all the hard work on our behalf. It doesn’t go unappreciated.

Thanks for the newsletter MM – when is the AGNPF Phase 2b results due out? How long do we need to hold this stock to recoup losses?

Thanks for another great Radar, Michael Murphy. Please excuse my last minute frantic post that the “christmas tree” spending and taxing bill was now in danger of getting passed by the Congress as Kirsten Sinema indicted she would vote “yes” and be the tie breaker for the reconciliation bill coming out of the House to the Senate. Just heard the AG of West Virginia indicating that their economy would be devastated if this bill goes as planned now.Waiting now for the Employment info at 8:30 AM EDT. Several financial think tanks who have abnalyzed the legislation are saying this tax and spend bill will burden the middle class and accelerate inflation. Democrats say no. Your mood and confidence outlook does appear to some show optimism. Will the hedge funds be ringing the “Call Bell” and get shorted, so to speak after this political hijinx plays out? Best wishes to stay on the “green side” after the clouds clear, to all.

Last edited 7 days ago by Donald Galamaga

Why did Joe Manchin cave in and support the humongous spending bill? Good guy before, now bad guy.

This AM’s jobs report–up 525K when 250K was forecast. The market is down because this means interest rates will be raised more than expected. And inflation is persistent.

They bot him out. The Citadel type hedgies bot Sen. Kirsten Sinema who was supposed to hold out on the carried interest to make this horrible Federal Tax Code a bit less skewed in favor of the Crony Capitalists. It would be interesting to know what they promised her. Of course, a short sighted move on the part of the Plutocrats, it will be too late to reflect upon it when their heads will be on pikes.

Last edited 7 days ago by El Capitan Nemo

For all the good the bill can do we will be hurt badly by the big concessions to the fossil fuel industry.they had to make to get the climate deniers on board.

“Drunkard Nancy” Plays- BUY LAC and MP, market orders.

Last edited 7 days ago by El Capitan Nemo

Notice spelling of LAC name as the Americas is a canadian firm which appears to now funded by the US government for their USA development. They are not the only firm with that international setup.
Since earnings are what the USA and Canadian do what all countries do – Tax earnings!

LAC, sorry but who cares. I just recommended it to make money. Thanks to Bimbo Pelosi’s stupid visit to Taiwan, Lithium will become scarcer and they are a pure play and the stock price should lift here. Ditto MP for rare earths; China may continue to send cheap goods sold at WMT but it sure as hell going to make it difficult for the US to secure strategic metals.

Last edited 7 days ago by El Capitan Nemo

MM, I posted this on the previous message board. Curious of your thoughts on ARDX vs. AKBA.


An interesting article by Dr. Jay Wish who is on the advisory board for Akebia (AKBA). He also mentions Ardelyx (ARDX) which I have shares in that has a similar story with the FDA giving a surprise CRL last year. They have an Adcom scheduled for November and I think is a better investment than Akebia. MM, any thoughts on them?

For those interested in the recent resurgence of the biotech sector see the August 5 article by Zvi Bar (Seeking Alpha.) In summary, the XBI and LABU ETF’s have dramatically advanced over the last few weeks. In particular, LABU, a triple leveraged ETF, has almost triple from its lows of 2-3 months ago. IMHO, both of these ETF’s have a lot of upside potential over the next few weeks/months.

The IRA(inflation reduction act) is anything but. How in hell is spending $400 plus billion going to REDUCE inflation??Will someone please do that math for me because I don’t get it. First we have $15 trillion of funny money printed up and injected into the economy and now we have another $400 plus billion in spending. No one can make this insanity up. OMG. The entire population of the senate, the congress and the Oval Office train has gone off the rails. In 1900 the dollar was worth $1.00. Today it is worth about $.03 cents. Soon it’s going to zero/nada. Hello Argentina. The new mantra is inflate or die apparently.

Also $80billion over 10 years to the IRS to hire an army of auditors. Get ready for your audit and/or Tax Court if you happen to disagree with the penalties/extra taxes they will levy on you (in 75,000 pages of tax code they will always find some abstruse rule to fabricate extra taxes you owe).

Here’s the faulty Dem “math.” Raise taxes to shrink the deficit. It would work IF govt investment were more productive than the same money in private hands. History shows otherwise. The money supply in private hands would shrink, but then the money supply in govt hands increases, so the total money supply remains constant. But govt inefficiency leads to lower productivity from govt contractors, causing more inflation.

MM, did Medicenna just screw the shareholders with this offering and warrants??


Earnings are out for nvta all we need is the pop,beat on the loss side hopefully just a matter of time

NVTA – $2 Billion dollar loss / write off in goodwill ? Good grief.

Thank goodness I loaded up on VLD with a real working business model, and TTD Trade Desk. The after market for both stocks is looking really good after their release of earnings. NVTA, not so much.

I thought my strong positions in VLD and TTD were going to be the home runs today (they still are), but WHAT is going on with NVTA? I have a huge amount of this stock, and I am absolutely blown away. Is this real? What am I missing? Now up 112% on the day? I didn’t read anything in their numbers release or conference call yesterday. Again, is this real? Or a bear trap?

Incredible volume on NVTA. Looks like a new MEME stock ala AMC and GME.

Could go much higher.

I was just thinking the SAME THING. Is this now a MEME stock?

I so wanted to pull the trigger on both NVTA & VLD at their lows recently, but with MM’s track record on these stocks, I was afraid to. Still trying to recover on INO, and BLPH and took another hit on MDNA yesterday. To those of you who got in at those lows on NVTA & VLD, take most if not all your profits now. Don’t get hung up on those unrealistic PT that MM has on these. Trust me, you’ll thank me later!!

Last edited 2 days ago by Doyle

I have never had a day like this in the market. Something is fishy, and there has to be more to the story. Meme manipulation? Seems likely.

Just a standard depression when values get smashed. World, DC,Finance go insane because standards go worthless into the future. The nuclear China, North Korea and Russia are bad enough, but our dependence on goods to run our society. In short, is anything predictable….

@Michael. Agree/ added a small ton a week or so ago.Chart when I posted this looks like course tto Mars. GLTA

whats driving NVTA??

Would like to hear your thoughts on the earnings report from nvta mm,how do you feel they were,tx

I hope people took my advice and sold all or at least half of NVTA yesterday as it’s down almost 40% today!!

Good Morning all. What’s the bet? Guessing 9.7%
8.5% vs 8.7% expected YOY Looks like bull market Overall unchanged. What do feds do? Guessing maybe 50 instead of 75. Let’s go to the moon.

Last edited 2 days ago by Donald Galamaga

8.5% CPI, down from 9.1%. The market is celebrating. Stupid bullcrap. Even if CPI levels out at 6%, interest rates must be raised much higher. Persistent high inflation is caused by ridiculous money printing. Until money supply is drastically reduced, inflation will continue to be a demon. This is a bear market rally.

Strong rally and dropping gas prices into the midterms along with a hostile Supreme Court against women ensures a blue wave coming.

Mark it.

Everyone knows the FED’s hands are tied. Zimbabwe market, here we come.

<Politcal comment, avert your eyes>
Hoping that Trump is able to run in 2024 as he will be taken out by nutty DeSatin and run as an independent thereby splitting the party.

Last edited 2 days ago by Michael

Avert eyes, another political comment. I can’ believe it with my support comment of “your” comment, but I think you are totally right Michael. Trump will run regardless and split the party.

Blue wave? HAHAHAHAHA – Lets see, this democrat oversight has delivered crime, inflation the highest in decades no end in sight for either, highest levels of international risk and unrest because Pelosi wanted photo opps, the border crises rages on, over 3 million illegal crossings this year with the administration saying “what crisis, the border is closed”, the Afghanistan withdrawl debacle, and lets not forget Hunter Biden that will explode in a bigger story than Watergate when its finally investigated properly and China payment trail leads to sleepy Joe. You really think voters want more of that??

Americans are tired of ALL politicians, especially Biden and Trump. Add all of the other Washington motley crew as well. We do not want more of this. Why can’t both parties find a great moderate candidate and bring some unity?


Hunter Biden’s laptop received 0 traction in 2020. Nobody cares.

Women have been subjugated by the Supremes. They are pissed.

Women will be out in VERY large numbers and they won’t be voting red. Full stop.

Nobody cares about Hunter Biden because he is being protected; FBI and DoJ are not investigating AND the MSM is not reporting.

Contrary to what you are saying abortion still is, and will continue to be, legal in many states. Not sure how you reach these conclusions on women generating a Blue Wave. I would not have made that decision as it is a wedge issue in an already very divided country. But the elections will run, as they always do, on the economy so the Democrats have to hope the prices of crude, gasoline and food stay where they are at the moment.

Last edited 2 days ago by El Capitan Nemo

What if they made prostate surgery legal in “many’ states? A prostate with a tumor can still produce life.

Legal in “many” states is simply ridiculous and you know it. You stated this is a wedge issue, prepare to get wedged.

There are many poisoned minds on this board. I’ve been avoiding it and will continue.

His name is De Santis and you call him nuts because you have obviously understood, without knowing anything about him except the destructive fire of withering Democrat Party propaganda, that he does have a chance to defeat Brandon (if he has not resigned and is running for a second term at 82).

Last edited 2 days ago by El Capitan Nemo

Naw I’m rooting for DeSatin and Trump to divide the GOP vote. Biden ain’t running. A divided GOP will make almost any Dem a shoe in.

I’ve watch Ronny down in Florida quite closely as I have many relatives down there. He is running the state like Mussolini.

On Nervgen, what’s the story with the partial clinical hold? When did that happen, and over what issues? This affects males and premenopausal females for which trials–Alzheimer’s, spinal cord injury, MS? That affects 50-70% of potential patients. I couldn’t find any earlier press release on these questions. Enrollment is slow in Australia–shades of Algernon? The stock is in a downtrend after the euphoria over the recent private placement. Will it fill the gap down to $1.40 on July 28?

JGMD, I have read your past comments re: NVTA. In short, you do not believe NVTA is a viable company. In light of that viewpoint, what is the explanation for today’s incredible surge of north of 300% from yesterday’s close? I read the transcript of the conference call and I noticed that several of the participating analysts expressed a rather positive tone. Did they suddenly recommend NVTA to their clientele? Traders are showing a ton of optimism in the future of NVTA: for example, the Jan. 2023 $25 call is commanding a $1.25 premium (the stock closed today at $8.74.) Your opinion is appreciated….Frank Soler.

JGMD, what is your profession? Are you a doctor, or an academic in the medical field? If so, what is your specialty?

I am a primary care internist with interest in integrative care. You’ve read my posts on nutritional management of many conditions. Academic MD’s are only interested in pairing drugs to clinical conditions. Genetic diseases are a tiny part of mainstream medical practice. Occasionally a patient has a genetic mutation that responds to specific drugs that target the mutation. NVTA is a MEME stock which is presently enjoying the hype pushed by analysts who don’t know clinical realities. I’m not sorry that I missed the pop in the stock, but even with the pop, most people here as well as MM are still hugely drowning in big losses.

Dear JGMD, I respectfully strongly disagree with you.

While you are correct treating genetic disease is indeed a tiny part of mainstream medical practice, you are totally missing the point of the testing. NVTA does NOT treat any conditions, only identifies them so the patient has the time and the ability to make educated decisions for medical care now and in the future. This can be life saving knowledge.

A family member was just recently diagnosed with two genetic mutations STK11 and RAD51D. The testing was done by guess who – NVTA and one of their competitors. With this extremely valuable knowledge we can now make educated health decisions NOW (as in surgeries etc.) to hopefully prevent these cancers and improve quality of life especially mentally and emotionally.

The genetic tests also identified the need for greatly increased screening and surveillance, based on clinical guidelines that would not have been done OR COVERED BY HEALTH INSURANCE without the knowledge provided by NVTA and genetic testing in general.

Your closed mindedness to these cutting edge technologies, providing the opportunity to improve life and life longevity is surprising based on your education and experience.

Today was the largest single day in my investment history in gains. Your guessing that all of us are under water in NVTA is just that a guess. I believe in the company and bought a significant number of more shares when it dropped.

You have been very vocal negative on this NWI forum, and no doubt you make valid points on many of the stock recommendations. You have a lot of knowledge and experience. However, your views on NVTA are not based on facts that personally I can attest to.

NVTA- Up 276% in 1 trading day on one of the if not the largest volume ever bespeaks of something other than medium or long term prospects of the business. Either somebody is interested in acquiring them and the news is starting to filter through or the stock was recommended by some MEME chat room and caught fire.

Long before NVTA was born, oncologists and other specialists used genetic testing in their fields. My friend and patient was diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer in 2012, and I thought he was going to die in 6 months. Fortunately, his oncologist found that his tumor had the EGFR mutation, and used targeted drugs for that mutation. He had 6 relatively good years, with only minor side effects from those drugs, unlike from typical nonspecific chemotherapy where it is debatable whether the minimal prolonged survival is worth the horrible quality of life from those nonspecific drugs. In the 7th year, the cancer got resistant to the specific drugs, and he died in that 7th year, in 2019.

So the specialists have known about genetic testing for a long time, and I doubt whether NVTA will bring on board the mainstream docs who presently don’t know about this. The primary care docs refer patients to the specialists who already do genetic testing.

As for prevention, you don’t need a genetic test to take appropriate measures. NUMBER ONE, completely stop stupid habits like smoking, alcohol, overeating, lack of exercise. Get slender. Overweight is a major risk factor for all diseases. NUMBER TWO, get your vitamin D levels high enough, as well as other nutritional support. These two lifestyle choices will prevent a high fraction of all diseases, especially cancer. If these actions are deemed not enough, and there is a strong family history of cancer, go to the oncologist who is already doing genetic testing, and is better qualified to order the best tests than the primary care doctor.

There was a flawed recent study using small doses of vitamin D that claimed that D is useless. This contradicts numerous previous well done studies of higher doses. This will be seized upon by the insurance industry to not cover vit D lab testing. They won’t cover D testing, but they will cover widespread genetic testing? DUMB.

Your friend was already diagnosed with the cancer and did the genetic testing AFTER the diagnosis.

If you have heathy patients, doctors traditionally would not be doing genetic testing. So standard doctor behavior is no cancer, no symptoms, no testing needed.

However, we did the testing based on other research criteria. The genetic testing confirmed the gene mutations and we could begin a course of screening and selective preventative treatment BEFORE the cancer manifested itself. These gene mutations have a statistical occurrence for cancer around 90% !

The genetic testing provided the EARLY opportunity for preventive care, ongoing screening and surveillance (such as colonoscopies and endoscopies) before any health issues actually appeared, i.e. cancer.

Therefore, to routinely throw NVTA and genetic testing under the bus as you have been doing here is not reality for us now, and won’t be reality in the future for many many people.

You’re right that most docs don’t do any genetic testing on healthy patients. They also don’t do any real preventive management such as what I mentioned. Very few patients are interested in a higher level of preventive care beyond checking cholesterol, diabetes, blood pressure. Most doc visits are for acute illnesses. After these are treated, the patient usually disappears until the next crisis appears.

Fortunately, you are different, and your family member benefitted from early screening and surveillance. But this is not enough. You can do all the testing, but how about ACTION–diet, nutritional management? I hope your family member is doing that also. There is a longstanding debate about how often screening mammograms should be done. But there is almost NO attention paid to what a woman can DO to reduce the risk of breast cancer. This goes way beyond doing prophylactic mastectomies. That may eliminate the risk of developing breast cancer, but that is NOT the end of it. Very few docs ask the question of what factors CAUSE breast and other cancers. All they have to say is genetic factors. The truth is that vitamin D deficiency is a major risk factor for many cancers, so if she has eliminated breast cancer risk by having the prophylactic mastectomy, she is still at risk for other cancers if she has vit D deficiency. Of course, being overweight is a risk factor for most cancers. You could do every genetic test available, and mammograms, endoscopies, colonoscopies every 6 months, but if you have an unhealthy lifestyle and have nutritional deficiencies, you will be worse off than someone who does less testing but more healthy self care.

NVTA’s action today is highly suggestive of a massive short covering rally which fizzled at the opening of trading. Watch out for MM’s perennial super optimism on most of his picks. I had my best performance on Dendreon (DNDN) by taking profits and trading in and out. MM wrote a Seeking Alpha article saying it was going to the moon. But it went to zero fairly soon.

MM: I do not understand the price run up on TGTX’s stock over the last few months. The approval date for their MS drug is still 5 months away! Yet all of a sudden the stock has been taking off ?? A few insightful words in the weeks RR would be most helpful. Thanks

TGTX closed today about $8. Consensus PT $16.88, your PT $25. If you think people are already discounting approval and buyout, do you want to lower your PT and get ready to sell around $10?

Orchestras say it all, we should take a lesson, and work together!

WOW, blow the doors off NVTA. Up $11,000.00 today. I don’t care if it’s Meme activity or not. Just lovin it. Thanks MM Also VLD up 42 percent.

Today could be the shorts covering positions, but with the really high volume – makes you wonder. NVTA has or had significant shorts until today.

Can’t wait for tomorrow. The after market is down, but that doesn’t mean anything for tomorrow’s action.

Same here, sir. If it’s meme activity let’s review meme stock history. GME (Game Stop) rose over 100 X over the course of several months. AMC went from $2.12 a share on December 31, 2020 to $59.26 a share on June 18, 2021( about 6 month) .A gain of about 2800 percent!! And then there is the wild card of ARC and Kathy Woods who has recently been in a buying mode. Just sayin

MM, amid all the market turmoil of the past couple of years you said this would be the one stock you would not sell.I took heed of that remark. Today’s action begs for comment.

I haven’t been around much here but when I saw the move in NVTA, I had to check what’s going on here and I just see a $2B loss and talk of it being a meme stock. I think it’s weird for such a stock to become one. Are there huge short positions? Why are the wall street bet people in love with it.

NVTA is the one stock in my small portfolio of developmental stage biotechs that I listened to my general trading rules and took 50% off when up 100%.

What I personally do next depends on whether there’s a rationale for the big move up. Is a big investor or fund buying it. If that’s the case, then I’d buy back some of what I sold on a pullback as technicals have clearly improved.

That said, if it’s moving as a meme stock then I’ll exit here and maybe consider buying again when those weak hands to shake out and maybe buy it back lower based on developments that MM shares.

My bad on using the word Meme stock above. Strike it. We don’t know. There was a high short position in NVTA. The shorts may have covered their positions driving the price up today.

@ Michael Murphy, @ Michael and all
NVTA. Looks like a Whale Hedgie or a meme phenomenon has this
top loser of the day. Look at the volume. Enormous. I got caught for sure after loading up on the great news they had.

Last edited 1 day ago by Donald Galamaga

NVTA- Bot a large position yesterday as it crossed $4 and then $5. Sold half above $9 at the close yesterday. Started buying back the half sold at the open making sure I would take the entire 1st hour to “refill” the position. I fully expected a very large decline in the first hour possibly until after Noon. After what it did yesterday, I consider this a full-bodied MEME stock with a 10-30x potential return in a relatively short period of time, 1 month or 2 at the most. Let me stress “Potential” as it may not happen, in which case it will revisit the recent lows around $2. Imho, this is only for experienced traders, long term investors in this thing should turn their screens off.

Last edited 1 day ago by El Capitan Nemo

EC Nemo, Well said…To go along with your thinking, it may be worth considering writing the Dec. $2.50 put for a 50 cents premium. It is not likely NVTA will revisit the $2 level, but if it does, the 50 cent premium will make the trade a wash.

Seems like a clear cut pump and dump. Giving it all back.

No, not all, a bit more than a Fibonacci .62 retracement on half the preceding day volume, I would call that expected and normal. That volume yesterday is the key variable and: VOLUME PRECEDES PRICE. Still think this is a MEME, really hard to say when the craziness regenerates.
But, IF it does revive itself, I would not be surprised to see a 10x in short notice at $20, or even 13x at $26 where the chart presents a snugly gap that will inevitably be filled.

Last edited 1 day ago by El Capitan Nemo

ARTH Q2 2022 earnings released: Revenues are $6,261 for the 3 months ended 6/30/22 (no 000’s). Net loss for the Quarter was ($1,046,830). One other lowlight : cash used in operating activities ($2,786,642) + cash provided by financing activities $575,000 = Net decrease in cash ($2,211,645).

Still the same POS, goin nowhere but down to zero. I was correct to sell a few months ago.

For those of you familiar with technical analysis, look at the NVTA chart for the last 2-3 days: it is a classical “flag” pattern. Today’s consolidation drop is the way the pattern develops. Look for a surge up to the $8-$9 level within a few days. An analysis of a very large sample size of stocks forming this pattern shows that, with 85% probability, the stock price will return to, or close to, the recent high within a few days after reaching such a high.

@Mr Francisco Soler. I have always had great respect for true chartists. I’l take that rebound for a try. Not like it didn’t have sunstance with their last quarter and disease pattern expansions, Thanks for the tip.

Last edited 1 day ago by Donald Galamaga

Yee Haw, we are now entering the stock market rodeo. Up 250 percent one day and down 150 percent the next . Oh well, easy come easy go. Further evidence that the Reddit tribe is alive and well. Or is it crazy algo’s gone wild? Only time will tell. If anything, it’s anything but boring.

Good evening all: NVTA. To be fair to all re our conversations about memes, Hedge predictions and plain value, I thought you would like this extended analysis and detail link within: Not Pretty.
What’s behind the Invitae stock roller coaster? Morgan Stanley weighs in | Nasdaq

Who is going to benefit more from NVTA as a company–patients or investors (cough, speculators)? I say the patients.