Dear New World Investor:
Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Powell speaks at the annual Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Here’s what he will say: “We will continue to be data-dependent in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time. We will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
Here’s what Wall Street will hear: “Higher for longer.”
Here’s what will happen: “Not much higher but, yeah, for longer.” It’s been 17 months since the Fed started raising interest rates. The lag between what they do and when and how it impacts the economy is somewhere between 12 and 24 months – say, 18 months. The economy is about to weaken steadily, in part due to the resumption of student loan payments in September. In the “not much higher but probably for longer” environment, stocks of companies that execute well can go much, much higher.
Bond yields probably will stay high for a long time, but not go much higher.
Click for larger graphic
All of this sturm und drang comes when the market is vulnerable, as you could see today after Nvidia’s blowout quarter did nothing to prevent a 59-point decline in the S&P 500. This chart shows the average intra-year seasonality of the S&P over the past 30 years. In the always illiquid and news-slow August, this is an important chart to explain the current price action and also zeitgeist. Almost everyone agrees that we should trade down now but almost no one thinks we have peaked for the year. It’s probably going to be a rough ride through September and maybe into the first half of October.
Click for larger graphic h/t The Market Ear
A normal year sees more than three separate 5% corrections per year. The S&P is down 5.3% from the late July peak right now, so we have the second 5% pullback this year. This is normal action after a huge rally into a seasonally weak period.
Click for larger graphic h/t The Market Ear
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 added a minuscule 0.1% since last Thursday after being up 1.5% at yesterday’s close. The Index is up 14.0% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% and is up 28.6% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 was almost unchanged and still is up 4.9% in 2023.
The fractal dimension clearly is in consolidation mode and probably will be there for at least two more weeks and possibly six or seven weeks. Then there will be plenty of energy for the yearend rally.
Top 5
Changes this week: Moved AKBA to nearest catalyst
Near-Term – chronological order
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat NDA filing by September 30; approval early 2024
TGTX TG Therapeutics – Rapid recovery from overdone pullback
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage this fall
SFTBY SoftBank – for ARM IPO this fall
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Economy
This morning, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model raised its forecast for September quarter real GDP to a blistering +5.9% based on strength in private domestic investment growth. The Blue Chip economists are scrambling to catch up.
Click for larger graphic
Virus Update
The Powers That Be are rumbling about yet another COVID-19 variant that we all have to worry about. Some colleges are requiring masks again, as are American Airlines and the movie studio Lionsgate. Really?
According to Worldometers, the seven-day moving average of daily new cases in the entire country bottomed at 5,872 on June 22. It blipped up to 15,459 on August 16 but already has fallen back to 9,950 as of yesterday.
Click for larger graphic
Daily new deaths show the same pattern, dropping to 61 – in the whole country – on July 4, rising to 112 on August 2, and now back to a new low at 25.
Click for larger graphic
I don’t think the scaremongers will be able to impose another round of lockdowns and mandates – people won’t stand for it. I am not worried about this hurting the financial markets again, but I’ll keep an eye on it.
Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, August 25
AKBA – Akebia Pharmaceuticals – 9:00am – Earnings conference call
Fed Chairman Powell speaks – 10:05am – Annual Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming
Tuesday, August 29
QUIK – QuickLogic – Unspec. – Jefferies Semiconductor, IT Hardware & Communications Technology Summit
Wednesday, August 30
June quarter real GDP – 8:30am – Second estimate
Thursday, August 31
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite inflation measure. Powell said he expects a headline +4.3% year-over-year.
PD – PagerDuty – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Friday, September 1
August payrolls – 8:30am – +170,000 expected; was +187,000 in July
Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $176.38) Card was named the Best Co-Branded Credit Card for Customer Satisfaction with No Annual Fee in the J.D. Power 2023 U.S. Credit Card Satisfaction Study for the third consecutive year. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $76.33) said the FDA has placed a partial clinical hold on the initiation of new patients in U.S. studies evaluating magrolimab to treat acute myeloid leukemia, although not to treat solid tumors. Current patients may continue to receive treatment and be monitored. The company is working to get the partial hold released.
Today, the FDA approved a supplemental new drug application (sNDA) for the use of Veklury (remdesivir) with no dose adjustments to treat COVID-19 in people with mild, moderate, and severe liver impairment. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $80 for a first target of $120.
Meta Platforms (META – $286.75) introduced Code Llama, a large language model (LLM) that can use text prompts to generate and discuss programming code. It should make workflows faster and more efficient for developers and help programmers write more robust, well-documented software. At the same time, it is an educational tool that lowers the barrier to entry for people who are learning to code.
They also introduced SeamlessM4T (Massive Multilingual Multimodal Machine Translation), a significant breakthrough in speech-to-speech and speech-to-text translation and transcription. The model supports nearly 100 languages for input (speech and text), 100 languages for text output, and 35 languages (plus English) for speech output. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.67) filed to take Arm Holdings public on Nasdaq. I expect it to go public at a $60 billion market capitalization, adding substantially to SoftBank’s net asset value. Part of the proceeds from the IPO probably will be used for more stock buybacks. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $13.14) CEO Dr. Raj Talluri did a podcast interview for Startup Hustle: Overcoming CEO Challenges & Battery Technology. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.
PagerDuty (PD – $24.17) reports July second quarter earnings next Thursday after the close. The consensus expects revenues to be up 15.4% from last year to $104.18 million with a pro forma profit of 10¢ a share. They are looking for October quarter guidance for $106.91 million and 15¢. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $5.65) successfully launched their 40th Electron rocket for Capella Space. This was the first launch of a previously-flown, 3D-printed Rutherford engine, retrieved from the ocean. They also retrieved the first stage of this launch. The company is moving towards a completely reusable rocket to slash costs.
SpaceX still is private, but last month they sold $750 million in stock from insiders to both new and existing investors at a price of $81 per share, valuing the company at $140 billion. At today’s close, Rocket Lab was valued at $2.74 billion – and Neutron is coming. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Velo3D (VLD – $1.59) launched the second season of its Laser Focused podcast. Chief Marketing Officer Renette Youssef will host eight episodes with former USAF General Ellen M. Pawlikowski; Christina Korp, Space for a Better World Director; Todd Fleckenstein, Meraki Space Systems Founder, CEO and Chief Engineer; Jeanette Winterson, New York Times Best Selling Author, CBE, and Advisor to PhysicsX; Ellen Malloy, Hermeus Manager of Manufacturing Engineering; and Ante Lausic PhD, General Motors Lead Process Engineer. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.25) will report delayed June quarter results tomorrow morning. They said they got the FDA meeting minutes and will resubmit the New Drug Approval for vadadustat before the end of September. They expect a six-month review with a PDUFA date next March.
I will be listening for more color on the accounting problems with Auryxia, but I expect them to be a non-event.Buy AKBA up to $2 for the vadadustat launches in the EU, UK, and (after FDA approval in 2024) the US.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved in the US.
Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA to be refiled
Probable time of next FDA approval: Mid-2024
Probable time of next financing: Late 2024 or never
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $2.36) filed a 10-Q with no press release (!!!) saying they would layoff 70% of the workforce with severance and related costs of $1.6 million.
They appointed Kimberlee Drapkin as the President and Chief Executive Officer, and as the principal executive, financial and accounting officer. Ms. Drapkin was appointed to lead their “ongoing” exploration of strategic alternatives as part of the corporate restructuring announced in February. She gets a base salary of $550,000 per year. In addition, she gets a cash severance payment of $400,000 in the event of a termination of her employment other than for cause or death upon or within 12 months after the closing of a strategic transaction, plus an additional $200,000 if the definitive agreement for such strategic transaction is executed within three months or $350,000 in the event of a termination of her employment other than for cause or death upon or within 12 months after the Board’s approval of a plan of dissolution of the company. So she’ll do OK.
And how is her strategic review going? Well, “the Company continues to explore strategic alternatives.” Oh, good. They can keep exploring, but not with us. It’s almost unbelievable they could be so tone deaf as to announce a strategic restructuring without a strategy. Sell GRPH.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Pre-clinical
Probable time of first FDA approval: Unknown
Probable time of next financing: Unknown
Invitae (NVTA – $0.87) dropped 14.3% today after they filed a 10-Q again with no press release (!!!) that they did a privately negotiated exchange agreement with a holder of $17.2 million of their 2.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2024 for $100,000 of new 4.5% notes due in 2028 and 15,819,604 shares of stock.
That’s about 1% of the current debt for 6% dilution, causing a 14.3% stock price decline. Dumb, and so far the new management has seemed pretty smart. Invitae is doing $500 million in annual revenue and has $300 million in cash, giving them at least an 18 month runway, plus a line of credit. For this they have a $242 million market cap.
I still think this management can dominate genetic testing and that especially in cancer and rare diseases, genetic testing will become a standard. But they can’t make any more bonehead deals like this or they’ll kill the company. Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,944.90) hit a weekly high today despite a stronger dollar and an uptick in bond yields as caution sets in ahead of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. The fractal dimension is headed for the fully consolidated level (55) at a good clip, but we’ve seen gold stay in consolidation mode for very long times. There will be more than enough energy to get to new all-time highs when the next uptrend starts.
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.35) got an excellent write-up on Seeking Alpha: Recent Developments Upgrade Investment Thesis. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $25,058.92) is depressed ahead of tomorrow morning’s (4:00am EDT) options settlement. Deribit, the leading crypto options exchange that controls nearly 90% of the global crypto options activity by open interest and volume, will settle 72,000 BTC August options contracts worth $1.9 billion and 535,000 ETH options contracts valued at $893 million. Put buyers have been piling on, pressuring the price of bitcoin. That’s about to end.
Click for larger graphic
BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $17.68) is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Commodities
Oil – $78.87
Oil fell under $80 after the draw on US crude storage was big, but not as big as traders expected. US exports were less than expected, which just means the draw in other countries was more than expected. But, hey, whatever lets your automated trading bot make a few pennies, right?
That’s the paper oil world. In the real world, the US oil rig count keeps falling. It was down five more rigs last week to a total decline of 101 rigs or 16% year-to-date.
Click for larger graphic h/t @ZmansEnrgyBrain
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $68.82) are a Buy under $65 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.
The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.56) is a Buy under $35 for a $100+ target.
EQT (EQT – $41.70) announced a tolling agreement to provide gas for LNG export.
Click for larger graphic
A tolling contract between a natural gas producer and a processing facility outlines the terms and conditions under which the gas producer delivers raw, unprocessed natural gas to the processing plant, and the plant processes the gas into its various components or end products.
The gas producer pays a tolling fee to the processing plant and ownership of the processed products remain with the gas producer after processing. So EQT can now export LNG or liquids without investing in a processing facility.
EQT closed the acquisition of Tug Hill and XcL Midstream this week, giving them assets that have among the lowest breakeven prices in Appalachia. They will reduce EQT’s free cash flow breakeven price by 15¢ per MMBtu (million British thermal units) plus create more than $80 million per year of cost synergies.
Tug Hill’s upstream assets currently produce approximately 800 MMcfe (million cubic feet of gas equivalent) per day with a 20% liquids yield. XcL Midstream’s gathering and processing assets add 145 miles of owned and operated midstream gathering systems that connect to every major long-haul interstate pipeline in southwest Appalachia. EQT will provide pro forma financial guidance on their September quarter earnings call.
Gas flows are still down 30% to 35% every single day in Europe. If demand picks up just a tad they we will be back in a bad price spiral. They’re praying for another warm winter.
Click for larger graphic h/t @AndreasSteno/a>
EQT is a buy under $35 for a first target of $70 and a long-term hold for much higher prices.
Primary Risk:Natural gas prices fall.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.84) is being priced on Wall Street’s expectations for 2024 uranium consumption of 185 million to 190 million pounds. That is about the annual usage of current reactors. But many reactors are having their initial loadings next year, including all the Japanese restarts.
A reactor generally uses 500,000 pounds a year, but an initial loading uses one million to two million pounds. Counting the restarts, 2024 consumption will be about 205 million pounds and increase again in 2025. Plus, after years of drawing down inventory, Western utilities are about to start re-stocking. 10% restocking gives another 20 million pounds of demand next year, totaling 225 million pounds. That would put uranium close to $100.
Click for larger graphic h/t @hkuppy
UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. Morgan Stanley recently pointed out the key differences showing why China in 2023 is NOT like Japan in the 1990s:
Click for larger graphic
Having strong-armed funds into not selling stocks last week, then strongly suggesting that companies escalate their share buyback programs, China unleashed their version of the Plunge Protection Team to support the stock market. That’s all short-term stuff. As I wrote on the Comments board: “China is the second-largest economy in the world, the second-most populated country, and a leader in many technologies. I think it’s obvious to many that Xi and his policies, as well as the Party, are holding China back. I expect him to be overthrown at some point. I still like the China ETFs, especially KWEB.”
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $29.90) is a Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months.
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $22.76) is a Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold.
Morgan Stanley China A-Share Closed-End Fund (CAF – $12.48) is a Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold.
Primary Risk: China falls into a recession.
KraneShares CSI China Internet Exchange-Traded Fund (KWEB – $27.68) is a Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years.
Primary Risk of all four: China falls into a recession.
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $0.88) posted their June quarter shareholders letter. Kuppy said Mongolia is still a mess, the down market has stalled KEDM subscriptions, and the portfolio is loaded with oil futures and futures options, energy services companies, uranium, and a Florida land owner (JOE). I like that. MNGGF is a buy under $1.30 for a long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Harris Kupperman makes bad investments.
* * * * *
Click for larger graphic h/t @VisualCap
* * * * *
Your understanding Zero-Day Options Editor, (Please read this!)
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $176.38) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $31.94) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $76.33) – Buy under $80, target price $120
Meta (META – $286.75) – Buy under $250, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.67) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Small Tech
Enovix (ENVX – $13.14) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $44.92) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $20.34) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $24.17) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.38) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $5.65) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $1.59) – Buy under $6, target price $50
$20-for-$1
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.25) – Buy under $2, target $20
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $4.01) – Buy under $10, ultimate target $300
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $8.85) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Inovio (INO – $0.43) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $0.87) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.39) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $3.09) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $10.36) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
Bag of Junk Silver – ($24.18) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $24.55) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $27.73) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $18.27) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $25.74) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.54) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.99) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.30) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.35) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $32.32) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $25,058.92) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $17.68) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,654.51) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $10.35) – Buy
Commodities
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $68.82) – Buy under $65; $200+ target
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $36.56) – Buy under $35; $100+ target
EQT (EQT – $41.70) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.84) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $38.40) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $29.90) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $22.76) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $12.48) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $27.68) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.23) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $0.88) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $1.70) – Hold for buyout
Sell
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $2.36) – Lost their way
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
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First
Duh, Second.
Any body have an idea if ENVX will be the top player inthe battery field.?
Have you seen the size of Tesla’s new battery factory? And look at Tesla’s market cap. Musk is going to be very challenging to beat.
That was subscriber Michael’s thought, that ENVX couldn’t compete against Tesla. ENVX has retraced nearly all its gains due to mediocre revenues/earnings. This is the fate of the majority of NWI reco’s. Example, VLD. At a buy price of $10 only about 1 year ago, MM thought the market potential would justify a target of $50. But this ignored the reality of lower than expected growth and consequent need for capital raises from dilution, etc. At a recent $1.50, I thought the risk/reward was favorable, so I bought some.
1000%. Tesla is MILES ahead of anyone in battery tech. ENVX is another pipe dream based on fear.
NVTA is fast becoming the “NEW” New World Investor ARTH. I missed the press release, is Norchi moonlighting at NVTA now ?
LOL. Damn right he is!!
Got rid of all my shares as it approached $1.- again and was totally unable to bounce. I am afraid this one is done.
Morning Frank,tx you made me chuckle ,I thought the same thing maybe they are cousins,another disaster pick from mm,this one really f…king stings,have a nice day
Don’t count on the FED backing off their interest rate hikes. The median price for homes sold in June was $406,700. Mortgage rates are at 7 percent. When these home prices filter into the inflation data , inflation is going UP. Not to mention that there is considerable wage inflation. The average minimum acceptable salary to switch jobs is $78,645. The average full time job offer has surged 14 percent in ONE year. It is now at $69,475. And you are right, if they pull that COVID crap again there is going to be some serious social unrest because people are NOT going to put up with it again. IMO and a lot of my friends and relatives.
Money supply figures don’t include stock market cap as well as real estate valuations. The printed money appears in the stock market cap, real estate, not just in money supply figures. Official inflation numbers are an example of misinformation. Powell is rightly concerned.
Another plandemic. Ha! Be sure to get another death jab. Oh yeah, and be sure to wear a mask which does not work! Virus is 1 micron, holes in masks 80 micron, even if virus on water vaper it is 60 micron. Do the math. And be a good little plebe and take your orders from the WEF, WHO and the CDC. Stay in your homes and mail in your ballots for the corrupt walking coma Joe Biden.
It’s going to be fantastic when the walking coma Biden beats the 4 time indicted Trump … AGAIN. What a country.
Biden family has major problems headed there way at full speed.
Let’s see how many indictments the Biden family gets. I’m betting ZERO.
Trump beat Biden fair and square. Trump has multiple indictments with 91 outstanding charges against him. President Biden has zero. Landslide!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-01/all-the-charges-trump-now-faces-and-all-the-prison-time-too#xj4y7vzkg
You need help. When you look at the current USA and say: Man, I want more of this! It makes you a clown.
Please explain why you think the USA is having problems. Inflation plummeting, record low unemployment, wages rising, GDP is up, stocks are up ( excluding these horrible NWI picks), and consumers are spending.
Give me some details man.
I don’t know Michael. Maybe labor participation rate is at a low. Housing market is unaffordable for most and ready to implode. REAL wages are down. Open border (bet you love this one). Funding a proxy war in one of the most corrupt countries in the world to the tune of billions of dollars. Government that controls population through fake flu, VAX, lockdown, censorship, and puts political rivals in jail. Deficit/GDP. Where did you get your GED? Clown.
You have been completely brainwashed. Supposedly insults are banned on this site but the author is absent. So I’ll toss one in for you .. asshat.
So far Trump is not in jail, or Rudy or his other co-conspirators trying to overthrow democracy. Looking forward to him being jailed (probably home confinement)….Although I believe Tramp will take his transcontinental jet to escape justice before they nab that con man.
I would tend to agree that IF things stay the same as they are now Biden should be re-elected. However, trouble is brewing on several fronts. Inflation on goods is dormant again but explosive in services; an unintended consequence of tighter Fed policies may be higher interest expense on Govt. debt which is at record levels and is inflationary. A number of other issues may create huge problems which may give the Presidency to Trump (who will receive the Republican nomination even if he is in a cage with the Hannibal Lectern face mask). Among them a potential new pandemic and the potential of Ukraine (and so NATO, that is, us) suffering a total defeat and unconditional surrender.
On the Ukrainian situation I am linking the Carlson interview with Col. MacGregor. BTW, I disagree with the good Colonel on the Ukrainian KIAs, he mentions 400,000; nobody really knows, but my guess is they are 150,000 to 200,000. Which of course means at least 450,000 to 600,000 WIAs with varying degrees of seriousness. Still, absolutely catastrophic losses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMUAaWK79Vc
Trump will probably get the nomination but no way he wins the general. Demographics are working against him and all these indictments will turn off moderate Republicans.
What would it say about the US if a 4 time indicted criminal with 91 counts could get elected President?
I’m proud to be a Canadian.
I post stuff every couple of years to see what’s up. And you and douchebag Opie never change. Always on the board with wrong info. It is like not watching a soap opera for 2 years then seeing it, nothing has changed. Please tell me what stocks you like and your biggest holdings so I can short them. Or I can take you and Dopie to Las Vegas and do the exact opposite and make a fortune. Either way.
Let me fix that. You post bullshit. Ok my largest holdings are TSLA, AMZN, GOOG, BX, and AXON.
Short them and post a screen shot. I’m assuming an old dude like you can do that. Right?
Please stay away for another 2 years.
You keep repeating the body count for Ukraine. You don’t seem to mention Russia’s deaths. Why is that?
US estimates 70,000 Ukrainian military deaths, 100-120,000 wounded, and over 42,000 civilian deaths. Do you add civilian deaths to Ukrainian military deaths to get your 150-200k?
US estimates 120,000 Russian military deaths, 170-180,000 wounded. Wagner estimates their own 22,000 deaths, 40,000 wounded, which includes a lot of hapless prisoners who joined to escape prison.
Ukraine’s estimates are far lower, but add large numbers of “missing,” but are still about half vs. others’ estimates.
Numbers of confirmed and confirmed-by-name are much lower, but would be expected to rise significantly with more information collected.
Look who you choose for your sources:
Carlson was fired from Fox “News” after Fox agreed to pay Dominion Voting Systems nearly $787 million to avert a trial in the voting machine company’s lawsuit that would have exposed how the network promoted lies about the 2020 presidential election. Fox has yet to settle a $2.7 billion similar lawsuit from Smartmatic. Fox never divulged this lawsuit news on their network “news”.
Col. MacGregor retired about 20 years ago, and is an author and TV personality. His inflated numbers cited here, are double the US estimates. Seems like you and Carlswine are cherry picking your sources. And not mentioning Russian losses.
Agree that wars are devastating and unfortunate for all concerned. We also haven’t mentioned the devastation caused in Ukraine that will not be erased when the invasion ends, probably over five years from now. Nor the price being paid by Russian citizens and prisoners. Nor the mass kidnapping of Ukrainian children by Russia, execution of Ukrainian civilians, widespread rapes, theft, and other Russian atrocities that have been widely documented. Or the impact of grain shortages on the rest of the world. You seem obvious to anything except Ukrainian military death total quoted by pro-Russian sources. AND you just keep repeating the same Ukrainian military death estimates, as if that’s all that matters. Why is that?
Opie with all your knowledge and expertise on Ukraine, what’s your thoughts on all the millions Ukraine paid to Hunter and the big guy while he was VP?
https://apnews.com/article/united-nations-donald-trump-ap-top-news-international-news-joe-biden-273e46e2fa324eb9ba5d69ab2a2c69cb
LMAO…this is from 2019 and now we now know they had just cause to investigate the millions Zelenski was paying to the Bidens…so yes Quid Pro Quo from the Bidens and now Zelenski is collecting a fortune for covering up for Hunter and the Big Guy. Unbelievable but not surprising you have not other response to all the monies they were paid.
Hunter Biden is a drug addict. Not a surprise given his mother and sister died in a car wreck in which Hunter himself received severe head injuries, and his brother was badly injured as well (and later died of cancer). He’s also had problems with alcohol. Not exactly a role model to be emulated. But do you believe every negative accusation that Republicans make about Hunter? AND assume that daddy Joe is in on the take?
No doubt Hunter gets help being hired from his family reputation. Just like George W. But Hunter also graduated from Yale Law and undergrad history from Georgetown. Compare his resume to yours. What’s your claim to fame??
Hunter’s work experience includes working for the Clinton administration, partner at a law and lobbying firm, worked for financial services company MBNA, rising to senior vice president. President George W. Bush appointed Hunter Biden to the board of directors of Amtrak.
At the time Hunter Biden was appointed to the board of Ukrainian natural gas company Burisma Holdings, Hunter was a lawyer at the firm Boies Schiller Flexner, and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s foreign service program, and chairman of the board of World Food Program USA, and chief executive officer and chairman of Rosemont Seneca Advisors, an investment advisory firm. He also served on other boards.
None of this is to say that Hunter Biden’s name was not a factor in his career advancement. Hunter himself said that he would “probably not” have been asked to be on the Burisma board if he were not a Biden. But how does his work history compare to yours? What’s your claim to fame?? Let’s compare.
“Since early 2019, Hunter and his father Joe Biden have been the subjects of false and baseless claims of corrupt activities in a Biden–Ukraine conspiracy theory pushed by then-U.S. President Donald Trump and his allies.[4] Former President Donald Trump and his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani claimed in 2019, without evidence, that Joe Biden had sought the dismissal of Shokin in order to protect his son and Burisma Holdings. Actually, it was the official policy of the United States and the European Union to seek Shokin’s removal.[73][65][67][74][75] There has also been no evidence produced of wrongdoing by Hunter Biden in Ukraine.[76][77] The Ukrainian anti-corruption investigation agency stated in September 2019 that its current investigation of Burisma was restricted solely to investigating the period from 2010 to 2012, before Hunter Biden joined Burisma in 2014.”
This sounds to me a combination of political acts similar to the years and millions spent investigating Hillary Clinton with unfounded accusations regarding Bengazi! Bengazi! Bengazi! That tarnished Hillary’s reputation but no wrongdoing was ever found BY YOUR REPUBLICAN mudslingers in Congress.
But it helped sink her career, didn’t it?
Similarly, Trump demanded that Ukraine investigate Biden. Trump froze US support funds pending “cooperation” to “help” the US administration of The Don, head of the crime family attempting to manipulate the electoral process. That’s really what this fantasy story is all about, TRUMP USING THE POWER OF THE PRESIDENCY TO ATTACK A POLITICAL RIVAL. And of course, psychopaths like Trump always accuse others of what they themselves are guilty of doing, to “spread the blame” and excuse their own behavior as normal.
So tell us about your college degrees and work history to compare to any one of the Bidens you choose to accuse.
I’m not Opie, but the millions that Hunter and the big guy got were orders of magnitude less than the couple billion Jared got from the Saudis and the billion plus from the Qataris. https://www.justsecurity.org/69094/timeline-on-jared-kushner-qatar-666-fifth-avenue-and-white-house-policy/
Eric Trump: “We don’t rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia.”
Typical response..lol! It’s amazing how obsessed guys like you and Opie are with the Trump family..LMAO
William. You made a typo. It is another Scamdemic, not plandemic.
It’s both.
“When an infected person expels the virus into the air by activities like talking, coughing, or sneezing, the airborne particles are composed of more than just the virus. The virus is part of larger particles that are made up of water and other materials such as mucus. These larger particles are easily trapped and filtered out by N95 respirators because they are too big to pass through the filter. This is called mechanical filtration. But mechanical filtration is just one of the ways that respirator filters keep particles from passing through the filter. An electrostatic charge also attracts particles to fibers in the filter, where the particles become stuck. In addition, the smallest particles constantly move around (called “Brownian motion”), and are very likely to hit a filter fiber and stick to it.
The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) tests respirators using particles that simulate a 0.3 micron diameter because this size particle is most likely to pass through the filter. If worn correctly, the N95 respirator will filter out at least 95% of particles this size. An N95 respirator is more effective at filtering particles that are smaller or larger than 0.3 microns in size.”
Scott Pauley, a spokesperson for the CDC, told the AP that outside of nine deaths confirmed to be associated with rare blood clots following the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, the agency has “not detected any unusual or unexpected patterns for deaths following immunization that would indicate that COVID vaccines are causing or contributing to deaths.”
Note that the vaccine greatly reduces the probability of death and serious illness from COVID, but not entirely. You are far safer getting the vaccine than skipping it.
On the other hand, if you are paranoid that the US government and Fauci are out to kill you, go ahead and skip getting vaccinations! 😉
You still believe in the CDC? You are brain dead. Mask up and live your life in the fake fear!
How old are you? I’m guessing elderly. Hang ten out there ignoring the CDC dude.
How many death jabs have you had? I think when you get over 5 is when your heart explodes. Don’t worry dying suddenly is not a real thing.
I’ve had 2. Would you mind posting your medical degree? Dipshit.
Reply to William Fake,
My girlfriend and I have both had 6 COVID vaccination shots. Six is more than five. We are alive and well.
My friend Earl who was my age didn’t get any COVID vaccination shots. He died from COVID last year at Miriam Hospital in Providence, RI.
BTW there has been zero instances of hearts exploding from COVID vaccinations. In fact, I’m unaware of anything besides bullets and similar projectiles that causes hearts to explode.
Pretty clear you know absolutely nothing about medical science and are talking BS. Where did you get this “knowledge”?? Please provide your sources. Some wacko website(s) I bet.
My heart just exploded. Waiting for the ambulance now. Should have listened to Fox news. Damn!!
Get well soon!
MM- AKBA. It would be great if you could update your thoughts after listening to the conf call this morning before next Thursday regular report. Thank in advance.
Stock down so I guess the accounting issue is still an issue
MM, I too would appreciate your opinion of the conf call this morning.
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) finally reported June quarter results Friday morning. Revenue fell 55.4% from last year due to the non-recurring impact of last year’s ~$80 million termination and settlement agreement with Otsuka, but the $56.38 million they reported still was short of the $59.1 million consensus estimate. Auryxia revenue fell 2.5% from last year to $42.2 million, although that was up 21.6% from the March quarter’s $34.7 million.
They said the decrease compared to last year was primarily due to the impact of shifting payor mix and a volume decrease partially caused by contracting dynamics and a decline in the phosphate binder market. The increase compared to the March quarter was due to timing of purchases of Auryxia made by certain customers and expected cyclical demand growth from the first quarter to the second quarter. They affirmed their 2023 Auryxia net product revenue guidance of $175 million to $180 million.
They lost six cents a share, double the three-cent loss estimate. On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they got the FDA meeting minutes and will resubmit the New Drug Approval for vadadustat before the end of September. They expect a six-month review with a PDUFA date next March. They also expect approval in Australia by the end of 2023.
The product return reserves errors that I mentioned last week and said would be a non-event resulted in an under-accrual of liabilities of $8.2 million, $7.9 million, and $6.0 million for the 2022, 2021, and 2020 fiscal years, respectively. In addition, accounts receivable was understated by $1.1 million, $0.7 million, and $0.7 million, and goodwill was understated by $2.6 million for the same years. None of these change my Buy recommendation.
The company finished the quarter with $53.6 million in cash, enough to carry them for at least the next 12 months. AKBA is a Buy for the vadadustat lunches in the EU, UK, and (after FDA approval in March 2024) the US.
I updated Coming Events for Thursday and Friday.
Thursday, August 31
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite inflation measure. Powell said he expects a headline +4.3% year-over-year.
Friday, September 1
August payrolls – 8:30am – +170,000 expected; was +187,000 in July
Following in the footsteps of JGMD’s take on ENVX, GRPH’s risk-reward ratio at this level may be acceptable. For whatever it is worth, Schwab has an A rating on the stock, the Yahoo folks project a one-year target of $3.60 (a 50% increase from current levels), and GRPH is still considered to be among the top 10 gene editing companies in the world (by the way, DNA is ranked a bit ahead of GRPH.)
My take was on VLD–favorable risk/reward at this low price. We don’t know how ENVX will do in the competitive battery market.
Sorry, my typo. Thanks.
MM, as the rates might be peaking, are long range Bonds not a good option to buy now? Like, EDV and TLT. Want to see your take on it. I would like to know if there is any fundamental flaw in these types of investments. Thank you.
It’s a crowded trade and as long as the Fed is biased higher for longer, I’d stay on the sidelines.
“Russian intelligence is operating a systematic program to launder pro-Kremlin propaganda through private relationships between Russian operatives and unwitting US and western targets, according to newly declassified US intelligence.
US intelligence agencies believe that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is attempting to influence public policy and public opinion in the West by directing Russian civilians to build relationships with influential US and Western individuals and then disseminate narratives that support Kremlin objectives, obscuring the FSB’s role through layers of ostensibly independent actors.
“These influence operations are designed to be deliberately small scale, the overall goal being US [and] Western persons presenting these ideas, seemingly organic,” a US official authorized to discuss the material told CNN. “The co-optee influence operations are built primarily on personal relationships … they build trust with them and then they can leverage that to covertly push the FSB’s agenda.”
The campaigns have sometimes been effective at planting Russian narratives in the Western press, according to the intelligence. Maxim Grigoriev, who heads a Russian NGO, made multiple speeches to the UN presenting a false study that claimed the humanitarian group the White Helmets – which operates in Syria – was running a black market for human organs and had faked chemical attacks by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, with whom Russia is allied. Those claims eventually found their way into a television report on the far-right OANN in the United States, according to open-source materials provided by the official.
But the official stressed that the Western voices that eventually became mouthpieces for Russian propaganda were almost certainly unaware of the role they were playing.
“At the end of the day, this unwitting target is disseminating Russian influence operation, Russian propaganda to their target public,” the US official said. “Ultimately, a lot of these are unwitting people — they remain unaware who is essentially seeding these narratives.”
The intelligence provides several examples of Russian civilian “co-optees” doing the bidding of the FSB.
One man, Andrey Stepanenko, founded a media project in 2014 that sponsored journalists from the US and the West to visit eastern Ukraine and learn “the alleged truth” about what was happening in the region. In fact, the FSB directed his efforts and “almost certainly financed the project,” according to the declassified intelligence.
The US official also cited Natalia Burlinova, the founder of a Russian NGO who routinely coordinated FSB-funded public diplomacy efforts aimed at influencing Western views. In 2018, she visited, had meetings and hosted events at multiple US think tanks and universities in New York, Boston and Washington – work that was funded by the FSB, according to the intelligence. Her conduct was already public: She was indicted earlier this year on charges of conspiring with an FSB officer to act as an illegal agent of Russia inside the United States, although she remains at liberty in Russia.
Burlinova denied that her US trips in 2018 were financed by the FSB. “All travel expenses were financed by a grant that we previously received from the Presidential Grants Fund, the main grant operator of Russia,” she said. “The FSB of Russia did not give me any money for the trip.”
The official declined to offer specifics to back up the intelligence community’s assertions that the FSB is funding this kind of operation but noted that once officials were able establish FSB backing, it is easy to trace the narratives they are pushing in open-source materials.
“Once you’re aware of who these people are and their association with the FSB, by nature of what they’re doing, they have very, very public personas,” the official said. “And so I would just say it’s not really difficult to kind of follow the strings.”
The US official declined to say whether Russia has used these same tactics to try to influence US elections.
The FSB does use similar tactics to influence political opinion within Russia, according to the intelligence. In one instance, a Russian media figure named Anton Tsvetkov organized protests outside of embassies in Moscow — including the US Embassy — at the FSB’s behest. The protests pushed Russia’s narrative of the war in Ukraine, “promoting the ‘Ukrainian Nazi’ narrative and blaming the U.S. and its allies for the deaths of children in the Donbass,” while hiding the Russian government’s role, according to the declassified intelligence. “The purpose of those protests really was … designed to sell it to the Russian people,” the US official said.”
Murphy FAKE NEWS! American airlines is NOT requiring masks. I just flew AA and no mask mandates.
Is Murphy simply feeding his base again??
I was wrong. AA was on a list with Morris Brown College, movie studio Lionsgate, and Kaiser health care, but they have not imposed a mandate.
“…on a list…” Please state who published or posted this list, thx.
Slow golf clap on your admission of being wrong. Thanks.
Politics already? Yuk. May I suggest REASON IN THE AGE OF DISINFORMATION at https://twitter.com/MJPiercello/status/1693794641483591873
Correct in general. However, scientific methodologies are NOT as scientific as you might think. In clinical trials, there is dogmatic insistence that THE scientific standard is the double blind placebo controlled trial. Anecdotal observations are dismissed with derision. But most clinicians learn from their experience of what works in individual cases. These are anecdotes, and have value if there are many in varieties of situations.
However, the claims of many academic MD’s that they “follow the science” are flawed. They may cite studies in prestigious journals that are challenged and then retracted. Journals are businesses whose revenue is mostly from Big Pharma ads. There is hidden internal data manipulation by the researchers to suit their BP bosses. Worse, many aspects of “the science” are biased in favor of drug treatments from BP. There is censorship and denial of effective nutritional strategies such as vitamin D, C, glutathione. Most of these academic “scientists” are paid by Big Pharma, and are biased in this way. So I would restate the claims made by “scientists” as really “follow the POLITICAL science.”
JGMD,
Amongst the scientific community I was in, I was an advocate of early “observational research,” prior to conducting controlled lab experiments, as were some of the most noted in the field, but it was also considered “not real science” by others who only supported controlled lab experimentation. I did a PhD minor comparing various methods of research in cognitive science, which was controversial to those who only believed in controlled lab studies. Certainly controlled lab experiments and double-blind placebo controlled trials show “internal validity” when manipulating independent variables and measuring the effects on the dependent variables studied. However, whether such sterile lab situations really translate with measurable impact to the complicated real world settings (“external validity”) require some follow-up real world studies. Bottom line: A number of types of research are useful and complement each other. “The double blind placebo controlled trial” is certainly central to evaluation and making decisions about efficacy, but other methods should not be dismissed, agree with you there. They aren’t incompatible and complement each other when trying to understand medicine and social science.
As science advances and we learn more, we often find that conclusions reached in controlled lab experiments or double-blind placebo controlled studies were not fully accurate. There were other unnoticed confounding independent variables, small sample statistical anomalies, etc., that later turned out to be less than a full understanding of the subject matter. This is normal progress in science. Its an ongoing improvement of replacing older theories with newer ones. Replicating findings in other studies is considered essential. Nothing wrong with Newtonian physics, or even older science cast aside as mistaken when more sophisticated understanding emerges over time. That’s how science progresses. That is science. Earlier conclusions are replaced by a more sophisticated understanding over time.
Early observational and field studies, controlled lab studies, and followup applications in real-world settings, are just some of the most common types of studies. There are other types of valid objective work in science and social science. I noted on a massive eight year long interdisciplinary study that researchers from various fields had different methodologies they employed in their field of research. I certainly would not dismiss or criticize double blind placebo controlled trials in general.
Also agree that there are SOME sleezy research projects and biased corporate interests that misuse fake science to promote their own financial interests (corruption). We witnessed that firsthand in ARNA’s initial surprise rejection by a biased committee chair (who it turned out was dying of cancer, and perhaps helped some people make a lot of money shorting the stock?) And tobacco companies for years promoted false narratives that smoking didn’t cause cancer, claiming it was Type A personality that caused cancer (in later research shown to be false). But that corruption is atypical and often uncovered eventually by real science and analysis. Its unfair to dismiss science, scientists, clinical research projects, biotech companies or double blind placebo controlled trials as corrupt or “political” in general. There are a lot of very competent good people doing great work that benefit us all.
Well it’s official now. Reverse Split in the works. We can add MDNA to the list of failed picks.
to pass a special resolution, the full text of which is set forth in the accompanying management information circular, approving the adoption of an amendment to the Corporation’s articles to effect a reverse stock split of the Corporation’s outstanding common shares at a ratio in the range of 1-for-5 to 1-for-15 (the “Reverse Stock Split”), such amendment to become effective at an exact ratio and a date to be determined by the board of directors of the Corporation if the Board considers it to be in the best interests of the Corporation to implement such Reverse Stock Split, all as more particularly described in the management information circular;
MM, How excited should we be about the news with GBTC ?
FWIW, this article from SA suggesting negative future for ENVX:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4632236-enovix-dangerous-game?mailingid=32565156&messageid=2800&serial=32565156.438&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=32565156.438
The new Radar Report for 8.31.23 is posted.