Radar Report – 8.31.23

Michael Murphy
Aug 23

Dear New World Investor:

At last week’s Jackson Hole Fed conference. Chairman Powell said he expected this morning’s core July Personal Consumption Expenditures Index– the Fed’s favorite inflation measure – to be +4.3% year-over-year. Wall Street was on board:

Click for larger graphic – read month-over-month (year-over-year)

The core number was up 0.8% from June, faster than the 0.6% in June over May. It was up 4.2% year-over-year, a tenth of a percent less than Powell and Wall Street expected. That was a fraction more than June’s +4.1%.

Headline inflation rose 0.2% month-over-month and the expected 3.3% year-over-year, an uptick from June’s 3.0% year-over-year. But Wall Street saw what they wanted to see. Paul Ashworth, an economist at Oxford Economics, wrote: “Despite the apparent strength of real demand, inflationary pressures continued to ease.”

Really? PCE inflation looks pretty sticky to me.

Click for larger graphic

It’s true that the annualized rate of core PCE inflation over the last three months fell to 2.8%, the lowest in 2 ½ years. It’s also true that, as usual, there were some categories that were unusually strong. There was a 7% monthly increase in portfolio management prices, which tend to follow the stock market that was up in July. Consumer spending on some large one-offs like “Barbenheimer,” Taylor Swift’s “The Eras” tour, and Beyoncé’s “Renaissance” tour, added about $8.5 billion to US growth in the current quarter, according to Morgan Stanley, or more than a third of the growth in consumption the firm projects for the September quarter.

Take that, Jay Powell!

It’s always easy to cherry-pick the outliers and say: “If it hadn’t been for X, Y, and Z, the result would have been different!” But Powell knows that game, so I continue to think it’s “Not Much Higher, But For Much Longer” in Fedville. Unwinding the tours, plus the expiration of the student loan moratorium, creates about 1.4% downside to Personal Consumption Expenditures in the December quarter. And US rents are 1.2% lower than a year ago, the biggest year-over-year decline since December 2020.

Click for larger graphic h/t @charliebilello

Today, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said: “If not for stubborn (and lagging) housing services prices, the core CPI would be running at 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. Given the lagging nature of rental prices…underlying inflation may well be close to our target already.”

Click for larger graphic

Powell probably will pause, but he’ll wait until he sees actual 2% inflation prints before he cuts. July job openings were weak:

Click for larger graphic

Tomorrow we get August payrolls – +170,000 expected, was +187,000 in July – and on September 13 we get the Consumer Price Index, the last data point before the Fed’s next meeting announcement on September 20. If it’s “Not Much Higher, But For Much Longer,” stocks of companies that execute well will be the only winners.

Speaking of which…

A few years ago I wrote about the Barbell Portfolio as the best way to manage your wealth. The bulk of your assets are invested in relatively safe, higher-yielding investments like utilities, insurance companies, REITs, and Dividend Aristocrats like Hershey. The rest goes into speculative, home-run investments – large and small technology, biotech, bitcoin, and the like.

There’s nothing in between – no index funds, no blue-chip mutual funds, no junk bond funds, no diversified funds…nothing. You know the risk in the safe end of your portfolio is very low. You know the risk in the other end of your portfolio is very high. You control your overall risk by moving a little money from one end of the barbell to the other, because when you don’t own anything in the middle, it only takes a small shift between the two ends of the barbell to make a big difference in your overall risk.

This strategy matches the real-world “fat tail” distribution of stock returns. (If you want to read more about it, the report is on Gumroad (CLICK HERE) at a suggested price of $47, but you can pay what you want, even $0.) I don’t want to turn New World Investor into an income newsletter, but I thought from time to time I might draw your attention to an interesting opportunity for the conservative end of your Barbell. I am NOT making a formal recommendation and I’m not planning to follow these.

Look At Main Street Capital (MAIN)

Main Street Capital is a Houston-based business development company (BDC) founded in 2007, right before the Great Financial Crisis. They provide equity capital to lower middle market private companies for recapitalizations, management buyouts, and family estate planning. They typically invest $2 million to $75 million in companies with annual revenues between $10 million and $150 million for 5% to 50% of the company.

They also provides debt capital to middle market companies for acquisitions, management buyouts, and refinancing. They typically loan $5 million to $50 million to companies with $1 million to $20 million in annual EBITDA. They invest in a wide range of industries, not just energy, and have made 195 investments.

Click for larger graphic

Like all BDCs, they are able to use government money to leverage their returns and must pay out at least 85% of their annual earnings as dividends – thus the 7% yield. The key to investing in BDCs (or REITs) is to find a management team that can steadily grow the dividend and, hopefully, never cut it. People often get sucked in by high double-digit yields right before management has to slash the dividend, tanking the stock.

Click for larger graphic

MAIN pays a monthly dividend and has never decreased it. Over the last 16 years they have increased the monthly dividend 114% from 33¢ per share to 70.5¢ per share.

Click for larger graphic

Plus, they paid supplemental dividends of 77.5¢ per share during the last twelve months.

Click for larger graphic

Management owns 3.5 million shares or over $140 million of the stock. If you are interested, check out their June quarter results (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE). Let me know in the Comments if you want to see more of these conservative ideas.

Click for larger graphic

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 3.0% since last Thursday as investors liked economic strength more than they feared inflation and the Fed. But a down August – the worst month since February – ended a five-month winning streak. Still, the Index is up 17.4% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 4.2% as investors sought revenue and earnings growth. It also ended a five month winning streak (with the worst month since last November) but is up 34.1% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 2.9% and is up 7.9% in 2023.

With most hedge funds lagging the S&P, not to mention Nasdaq, what do you think they will do when they get back from the beach?

The fractal dimension counted this week’s rally as more consolidation, enough to almost hit the 55 level. There is going to be plenty of energy to power a fourth-quarter rally.

How big could that be? The “This is just like…” analogies usually blow up right after someone notices them. This chart comparing 2023 to 1999 probably is wrong, too, mostly because AI in 2023 is not yet having the same impact as the Internet in 1999. It will, in five years or so.

Click for larger graphic h/t @TheMarketEar

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
TGTX TG Therapeutics – Rapid recovery from overdone pullback
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage this fall
SFTBY SoftBank – for ARM IPO this fall
AKBA Akebia – Vadadustat NDA filing 2023; approval 2024
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US


June quarter real GDP growth was revised down from the first estimate of +2.4% to +2.1%. The main revision was businesses liquidating more inventories than first thought, which is good news for growth going forward. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, rose at a 1.7% annual pace in the June quarter, down from 4.2% in the first three months of 2023.

For the September quarter, this morning’s Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate is at +5.6%, about triple the Blue Chip economists’ estimate. It looks like a big surprise is coming when the first estimate is announced on October 26.

Click for larger graphic

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, September 1
August payrolls – 8:30am – +170,000 expected; July was +187,000

Monday, September 4
Markets Closed


Wednesday, September 6
GILD – Gilead – 11:00am – Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference

Thursday, September 7
RKLB – Rocket Lab – Unspec. – Jefferies Industrials Conference
CMPS – Compass Pathways – 1on1s – Citi BioPharma Conference
GLW – Corning – 8:15am – Citi Global Technology Conference
FCX – Freeport McMoRan – 2:30pm – Jefferies Industrials Conference

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $187.87) will introduce the iPhone 15 and Apple Watch Series 9 on September 12, a week from next Tuesday. It should be a good day for Warren Buffett – it’s his largest holding.

They are testing using 3D printers to produce the steel chassis of the Series 9 smartwatch, and then expand the process to more products over the next several years, The next step would be the titanium watch in 2024. They won’t need Velo3D precision or size to make watches, but I’ll be very interested in finding out what supplier they use. It may be 3D Systems (DDD), Desktop Metal (DM), Stratasys (SSYS), or Voxeljet (VJET). AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Meta Platforms (META – $295.89) introduced WhatsApp for Mac that, like WhatsApp for Windows, offers group audio calls for up to 32 participants and video calls for up to eight. Both Meta and Twitter X are racing to develop the Everything App that works like WeChat in China. Anything you want to do on your phone is in WeChat. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $13.78 ) may benefit from this week’s listing of noco-noco (NCNC), a Singapore-based battery technology startup, that closed up 31% today.

Enovix has started Factory Acceptance Testing of the Gen2 equipment. We’ll get more details from COO Ajay Marathe on their new podcast launching September 13. ENVX is a Buy up to $20 for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

PagerDuty (PD – $25.76) reported July second quarter results after the close today. Revenues grew 19.2% from last year to $107.6 million, beating the consensus estimate for $104.9 million. Pro forma earnings of 19¢ per share clobbered the consensus estimate for 11¢.

Annual recurring revenue grew 17% year over year to $431.0 million. Customers with annual recurring revenue over $100,000 grew 12% to 773 as of July 31, compared to 689 last year. The dollar-based net retention rate – what customers spent this quarter compared to last year’s July quarter – was 114%. They expect to stay above 110% in the second half of the year. Total free and paid customers grew 19% from last year to more than 26,000.

On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management guided for October quarter revenue of $106.5 million to $108.5 million, a growth rate of 13% to 15% year-over-year. That matches the consensus expectation for $106.91 million. Projected pro forma earnings of 13¢ to 14¢ per share are just below the 15¢ expectation.

For the full fiscal year, they now expect total revenue of $426.0 million to $430.0 million, a growth rate of 15% to 16% year-over-year, again right on the consensus for $427.73 million. That would produce pro forma income of 60¢ to 65¢, also bracketing the consensus for 62¢.

The company is making good progress towards a very achievable 20% pretax profit margin:

Click for larger graphic

They ended the quarter with $504.5 million in cash. PD is a Buy up to $30 for a 2- to 5-year hold as their digital operations management Software-As-A-Service gains market share.
Primary Risk: Digital operations management is a competitive area.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.38) announced a Global Foundries 12 nanometer eFPGA Core. Developers using Global Foundries to manufacture their semiconductors get enhanced design flexibility, rapid innovation, and options for custom eFPGA versions in as little as days. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift: The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.


Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $1.39) finally reported June quarter results. Revenue fell 55.4% from last year due to the non-recurring impact of last year’s ~$80 million termination and settlement agreement with Otsuka, but the $56.38 million they reported still was short of the $59.1 million consensus estimate. Auryxia revenue fell 2.5% from last year to $42.2 million, although that was up 21.6% from the March quarter’s $34.7 million.

They said the decrease compared to last year was primarily due to the impact of shifting payor mix and a volume decrease partially caused by contracting dynamics and a decline in the phosphate binder market. The increase compared to the March quarter was due to timing of purchases of Auryxia made by certain customers and expected cyclical demand growth from the first quarter to the second quarter. They affirmed their 2023 Auryxia net product revenue guidance of $175 million to $180 million.

They lost six cents a share, double the three-cent loss estimate. On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they got the FDA meeting minutes and will resubmit the New Drug Approval for vadadustat before the end of September. They expect a six-month review with a PDUFA date next March. They also expect approval in Australia by the end of 2023.

Click for larger graphic

The product return reserves errors that I mentioned last week and said would be a non-event resulted in an under-accrual of liabilities of $8.2 million, $7.9 million, and $6.0 million for the 2022, 2021, and 2020 fiscal years, respectively. In addition, accounts receivable was understated by $1.1 million, $0.7 million, and $0.7 million, and goodwill was understated by $2.6 million for the same years. None of these change my Buy recommendation.

Click for larger graphic

The company finished the quarter with $53.6 million in cash, enough to carry them for at least the next 12 months.

Click for larger graphic

Buy AKBA up to $2 for the vadadustat launches in the EU, UK, and (after FDA approval in March 2024) the US.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA to be refiled by 9/30/23
   Probable time of next FDA approval: March 2024
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2024 or never

Invitae (NVTA – $0.92) hired a very experienced Chief Commercial Officer to “develop and implement Invitae’s commercial strategy with a focus on driving profitable revenue growth, expanding the market, improving reimbursement levels and enhancing the service of clients and patients.” Sounds like the CEO-in-training to me. Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
   Clinical stage of lead product: NM
   Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Not needed

Medicenna (MDNA – $0.37) appointed a new CFO to reside in their expanded Boston office. Most recently he was CFO at Biotheryx, where he led the finance, investor relations, and operational functions and supported activities associated with an up to $350 million collaboration with Incyte. Before Biotheryx, he was VP: Finance at Tango Therapeutics (TNGX), where he oversaw $110 million in private financings and a $350 million SPAC and PIPE transaction. Earlier, he held senior finance roles at Editas Medicine  (EDIT), Charles River Laboratories, and 10 years at Johnson & Johnson. Buy MDNA under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: March 2024

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,966.6) still has a $1,950 magnet as the fractal dimension consolidation continues. Patience.


Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $26,148.05) jumped after the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust won their lawsuit against the SEC, but has settled back. The court simply told the SEC to review their decision to turn down GBTC’s application to become an exchange-traded fund. The SEC could turn them down on some other grounds, or even (in theory) revoke their approval of bitcoin futures funds. We won’t know for a while.

Here’s what I think will happen. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will be 66 on October 18. He’s an 18-year veteran of Goldman Sachs who was the Under Secretary of the Treasury for Domestic Finance for President Obama and the Chairman of both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and then the SEC for President Biden. It’s time for him to cash in on the revolving door. Both BlackRock and Fidelity have applications in for bitcoin ETFs. If he grants them, he gets a cushy job after retirement – and he can blame any future problems on the court. So I think he’ll do a 1800 and approve everybody’s ETF. Bitcoin will shoot up as the ETFs buy it.

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $18.71) jumped after the court decision, as I expected, but still closed today at a 20% discount to net asset value. So we’ve collected about half of the 40%+ discount when I recommended it, but we still are buying bitcoin at a substantial discount. At some point we’ll want to hold bitcoin in our own wallet, but until then GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.


Oil – $83.58

Oil jumped today after Russia agreed on extending the OPEC+ oil export cuts into October. The physical market is tightening quickly. US stockpiles fell 10.6 million barrels last week to the lowest since December, according to the Energy Information Administration. Analysts expected only a 3.3 million barrel drop. Inventories at the biggest storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, dropped 1.5 million barrels to the lowest since January.

I expect commercial US crude storage to fall to a five-year low by mid-September, unless Hurricane Idalia keeps enough refining capacity closed to postpone the low to the end of September.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

Even with gasoline prices at a $3.81 national average, demand is holding up.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

From HFI Research’sThe Saudis Are Dead Serious On Pushing Oil Prices Higher: “In the years I’ve followed the oil market, I have never seen the Saudis this determined to push oil prices up.”

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $68.99) are a Buy under $65 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $38.09) is a Buy under $35 for a $100+ target.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.13) rose over $7 as spot uranium went over $59 a pound to a new 16-month high. Buyers continue to chase sellers, who now are asking $60 a pound for September delivery. Uranium keeps making new highs and no one cares. That’s how you want these bull markets to start – silent, relentless, sneaky, and never letting anyone in with a pullback. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $39.91) will shoot up if Citi is right – they said oil’s historic price surge in 2008 will look like “child’s play” compared with the expected copper boom by 2025. If you don’t remember that oil run, prices went from $50 per barrel in mid-2006 to $140 per barrel by late 2007 as strong demand from emerging markets clashed with stagnant global crude production. Commodity Trading Advisers and hedge funds piled on.

I think Citi is wrong on the timing because global copper inventories are almost depleted and demand is steadily growing. Copper regained its 50-day moving average. The 200dma is next. FCX is a buy under $44 for a $65 target within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.

Click for larger graphic

International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China. Chinese stocks strengthened after authorities announced several measures to woo back investors, including the first reduction of the stamp duty on stock trades since 2008. The Ministry of Finance said the move was to “invigorate capital markets and boost investor confidence.”

The China Securities Regulatory Commission restricted share sales by top stakeholders at firms whose stock prices have fallen below IPO levels or net asset levels. They also reduced the margin required for leveraged trades.

EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $31.08) is a Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months.

KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $23.33) is a Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold.

Morgan Stanley China A-Share Closed-End Fund (CAF – $12.74) is a Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold.

KraneShares CSI China Internet Exchange-Traded Fund (KWEB – $28.71) is a Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years.
Primary Risk of all four of these: China falls into a recession.

* * * * *

10,000 Years of Temperature

Click for larger graphic h/t Ancient Ports

* * * * *

Trump/Ramaswamy vs. Newsom/Whitmer (maybe)?

Click for larger graphic

* * * * *

Your taking the Interest Rate Trading Challenge Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 8/31/23. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $187.87) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $32.82) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $76.48) – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Meta (META – $295.89) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.40) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $13.78) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $47.16) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $23.79) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $25.76) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $8.38) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $6.31) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $1.58) – Buy under $6, target price $50

  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.39) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $4.05) – Buy under $10, ultimate target $300
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $9.05) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Inovio (INO – $0.45) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $0.92) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.37) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $3.52) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $10.47) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+

  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($24.81) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $25.13) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $28.76) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $18.53) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $26.50) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $2.41) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $6.13) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.34) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.50) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $33.29) – Buy under $40, target price $70

  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $26,148.05) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $18.71) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,644.27) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $11.06) – Buy

  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $68.99) – Buy under $65; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $38.09) – Buy under $35; $100+ target
  EQT (EQT – $43.22) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.13) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $39.91) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $31.080) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $23.33) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $12.74) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $28.71) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.25) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $0.88) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $1.47) – Hold for buyout

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

Copyright ©GwynRoseLLC 2023

New World Investor Mastermind Group

1. Post unto others as you would have them post unto you.
2. Keep it clean, like a 1950s family television show. Your alter ego can run free on Twitter.
3. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS! If you don’t like the stock, don’t trash the person. Everyone is responsible for their own due diligence and investments.
4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind. Again, NO PERSONAL ATTACKS!
5. The investment implications of something going on in politics or religion is OK.
6. Of course, there’s never a reason to slur someone based on race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, or country of national origin.
7. Please, no snark!

Print This Post Print This Post
Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

MM, no mention of the Reverse Split for MDNA in your report?

  1. hold your BTC in your own wallet
  2. Trump/Ramaswamy vs. Newsom/Whitmer (maybe)? IS NOT A THING!!!!!!!

Mike, get your shit together.

sounds rude and personal ; easiest thing for anyone to get rude and nasty .

you forgot disrespectful and arrogant.

Yes he is a bit rude but he is right about the election.
It is Trump/Biden again and Biden will be re-elected…UNLESS, imho, there is a major problem/pandemic/economic collapse that scares the Soccer Moms into voting Trump.

Rude? Come on snowflakes. MM has lead you into some of the worst picks I’ve ever seen. A little bit of push back is nothing.

Nemo, I think the soccer moms are off the table for Trump now. No matter what happens.

Biden will run unless he dies. Trump is in terrible shape with (most likely) high cortisol due to all his troubles. What if both candidates die?

That would be very interesting.

Biden will easily beat Trump and then ( I think) turn the reins over to his VP.

Trump thrives on controversy, and the more the Dems try to weaponize the DOJ, FBI against Trump the more voters will support him. You are missing the obvious, the Dems are trying to force the walking coma Biden and disqualify Trump but the more they try the more he and his supporters get emboldened – its backfiring for the Dems.

LOL. 91 counts from 4 separate district attorneys and 4 different jurisdictions … AND the dems control the FBI??? If the dems have that much control over the government why don’t they just take Trump out, Putin style?

Tin foil hat stuff for sure.

Is this what you call backfiring? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election

Eric Trump for President!! 😉

I’ll take Eric any day over Hunter..LMAO

Why did QUIK plunge today?

MM – thanks for the report, what is your projection for interest rates; remain high or fall and how far and when? Related, what is your projection for real estate prices – Barbara Cochran of Shark Tank fame is projecting a fall in rates and a resulting surge in residential real estate prices – do you concur?

Historically interest rates are around 5% which gives people a nice, safe way to earn some money on their savings. I don’t think we will ever go back to those insanely low rates. All it does is cause reckless speculation.

Question for all cryptocurrency investors – is everyone aligned with the seemingly consensus among investors that BTC will at least achieve its historic high above $60k following the halving in 2024 (many are projecting much higher levels).

Consensus is rarely correct. Long term, BTC hits 1 million. Put yours in cold storage and avoid scams like GBTC.

Why is it trading at a discount?

MM – I’ve tried downloading your 16 pages from Gumroad on both my iPad and my MacBook Pro. Using both Safari and Chrome. I click open in app, and never see any content. Any suggestions?

I know someone is following this stock. Any chance we hit these price targets?


If I didn’t think ACXP could hit those price targets in the next year, I wouldn’t own it. I do own it. Lots of it.

Why is ACXP thinly traded and with few comments on YMB, with such excellent prospects?

I don’t know. The stock market is like that at times. The market sometimes completely undervalues a company at one point and eventually comes around. Why did DNDN shoot up from $4 to $60 in one week? Why did Arena jump from $2 to $6? On the other hand, sometimes the market overvalues a company. I made a lot of money riding AUPH from $2 to $30 but anyone who continued to hold after $30 must certainly regret continuing to hold. MRNA was under $20 in January of 2020. 20 months later ii was over $450. Now its a little over $100.

NervGen (NGENF, my biggest investment) If you don’t own shares now, you should buy THIS WEEK.

NGENF was selling in the 1.30 to 1.40 range before it announced on Aug 22 that it would be presenting on PropThink and went to the 1.50 to 1.60 range after that presentation which included Rich Macary, who was an early investor when Sarepta was just a $100M company (now an $11B company) saying NervGen could be worth 100B to 160B. HC Wainwright is a MUCH BIGGER DEAL than PropThink. NervGen will be a brand new idea to many of the investors in attendance at the Wainwright conference and I anticipate another very big surge in share price soon after the Wainwright presentation. NervGen has begun screening candidates for participation in its 16 week Phase 2 trial of NVC-291 in Spinal Cord Injury (SCI). NVG-291 has been shown to be highly effective in multiple animal models for improving results in SCI, stroke, MS and other nervous system disorders.

NervGen Pharma To Present On Its Drug Candidate NVG-291 And Spinal Cord Injury At The H.C. Wainwright 25th Annual Global Investment Conference happening Sept 11 through 13 and
Vancouver, Canada. September 5, 2023 – NervGen Pharma Corp. (TSX-V: NGEN; OTCQX: NGENF), a clinical stage biotech company dedicated to developing innovative solutions for the treatment of nervous system damage, announced today that President & CEO, Mike Kelly, will present at the H.C. Wainwright 25th Annual Global Investment Conference on September 13, 2023 at 4:00pm Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) and members of management will be available for one-on-one investor meetings on September 11 and 12, 2023. A webcast will be available via NervGen’s website.
The in-person venue for the event is the Lotte New York Palace Hotel located at 455 Madison Avenue. Virtual participation will be staged simultaneously through live feed or available on-demand.
I first bought shares in NervGen soon after it was discussed at Biopub.co in 2019 and have been adding shares over the years.


What do you think the upside is both short term and long term?

Short term (less than a year) positive results will send the price high enough to obtain a NASDAQ listing, maybe even to double digits. I used to say that long term it could be 100x higher. But Rich Macary said it could be 10 or 15 times bigger than Sarepta (SRPT) and Sarepta is an $11B company. In other words, Macary says NervGen could be over 1000x from here.

ARTH — is this a bridge or a tombstone?


From the 8-31 issue, sure – more ideas for the conservative end of the barbell. Seems like a good way to balance against the high risk areas.
Would be a better newsletter if provided both, or at least as a companion.