Dear New World Investor:
The markets – bonds and stocks, here and overseas – have been brutal as we spiral towards a classic October bottom. There are two important factors few people are talking about that will stop Fed tightening soon, but first, the one people are talking about: The US Dollar Wrecking Ball.
When the Fed raises interest rates, it:
1. Makes US government debt more attractive to overseas investors
2. Which creates demand for dollars to buy the debt
3. Which makes the dollar stronger versus other currencies
4. Which makes investing in US debt even more attractive, due to foreign exchange gains on top of higher interest rates
5. Which forces foreign governments to raise their interest rates to fund their deficits
6. And raises the local currency cost of their imports
7. Which raises their inflation rate
8. Which weakens their currency further
And here we are with the British pound approaching parity with the US dollar and the euro already under $1. The Fed has to stop before it destroys economies all over the world.
The two lesser-known factors are (1) the Fed’s own financials and (2) the cost of higher interest on the Federal budget. The Fed earns interest on the securities it bought during Quantitative Easing and pays interest on money deposited with it by the banks. In the September 2021 fiscal year, the Fed earned $122.5 billion in interest income, paid $5.7 billion in interest expense, and had $8.7 billion in operating expenses. It is required by law to remit most of its profits to the Treasury every year. It sent $107.4 billion in 2021.
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But the Fed is about to start losing money. They have just under $9 trillion in liabilities. In the era of near-zero interest rates, that only cost them the aforementioned $5.7 billion. But every percentage point (100 basis point) increase in the Fed funds rate costs them almost $90 billion. They’ve already increased the rate by 300 basis points, which will cost them over $250 billion a year on an annualized basis.
Because the interest rate increases didn’t start until March, it will only be about $100 billion in the 2022 fiscal year – which probably is enough to wipe out their profits. There will be little or no 2022 contribution to the Treasury to reduce the deficit. In fiscal 2023, starting Saturday, they’ll have a huge loss, which will be compounded by further Fed funds increases.
In addition, they bought a lot of debt at very low interest rates. If they start selling it, that will quickly wipe out their $40 billion or so in equity. How does a central bank with negative equity and running huge operating losses survive? As a taxpayer, you know the answer.
This leads us to the second restraint on the Fed few people are talking about. Swinging from a $107.4 billion source of income in 2021 to a $300+ billion expense in 2023 is going to make the budget deficit look bad. But wait, there’s more.
For the last 10 years. Treasury Secretaries of both parties had a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to replace most of the Federal government’s short-term debt with cheap long-term debt (30 years? 50 years? 100 years? Why not?). Not one took it. A new analysis from the budget hawks at The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget predicts each 75 basis point hike will add $2.1 trillion to government deficits over the next decade. To paraphrase something Senator Everett Dirksen probably never said: “A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.”
How do we cover Federal deficits? The Fed prints money. So at some point, raising interest rates forces them to print money, accelerating inflation. The Fed is trapped, and will do what they always do in a crisis:
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Right now, the M2 money supply growth is absolutely melting. It is down to 3.1% year-over-year.
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Total Federal debt today is about $30.9 trillion – 120% of GDP. The official and private sectors estimate trillion-dollar deficits forever, based on current law. These will be higher if any future Congress decides to implement more spending – which they will, of course. That’s a lot of Treasury supply to digest. Interest expense is the sixth largest budget expense category, and interest payments on the debt are projected to be the fastest-growing part of the federal budget in the years ahead.
Source: US Treasury Click for larger graphic
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 lost 3.1% since last Thursday to set new intraday and closing lows today. The Index is down 23.6% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.0% and is down 31.4% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 2.8% and is down 25.4% in 2022.
Below are the top 20 largest peak-to-trough drawdowns for the S&P 500 going back to 1961. Never in history in an EXTREME drawdown for stock have Treasuries, the risk-off asset, gone down more than stocks. The 60/40 portfolio that so many retirees hold has been decimated.
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Only about 10% of stocks are above their 200-day moving average, the 10-day advance/decline line hit a record low, and breadth over the past 10 days is the weakest in 10 years. The crowd loaded up on puts last Friday as fear took over. But the S&P has done little since Friday, so those puts bought in panic have managed to lose a lot of value already, even after today’s drop.
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And equity exposure among active managers is at 12.6, a very low level. It got to 10.6 at the March 2020 bottom and to 3.0 in October 2008.
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While hedge funds show a similar picture. The market always tries to embarrass the maximum number of people. What is the main pain trade from here? Up.
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On the other hand, Goldman Sachs says that there are usually two reasons for bear market rallies:
1. Longer-term expectations of growth improve, even if in the short term it is still pretty negative
2. Investors become increasingly confident that they are approaching the peak in the interest rate cycle
With rates still very elevated compared to where they were a year ago and signs of slower growth proliferating, it is difficult to make a case that either of these parameters have been met, according to Goldman.
Credit-default swap indexes are benchmarks for protecting investors owning bonds against default, and traders use them to speculate on changes in credit quality. The Investment Grade credit default swap index (CDX IG) is a benchmark financial instrument made up of credit default swaps (CDS) that have been issued by high-quality North American companies.
The spread between the bid and the ask is a measure of market stress, and the CDX IG spread stress remains huge. It feels premature, but Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell have “reacted” at times when CDX IG has moved like this. Is Powell looking at this chart at all?
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I have seen some mentions of a crash pattern in the media. They have a point. The S&P 500 dropped at least 0.75% for five straight days to a 52-week low on Monday, and then dropped again on Tuesday. That only happened during the meltdowns in 1932, 1974, 2008…and Tuesday.
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The fractal dimension is in a downtrend, confirmed by breaking the June 16 low. This can last for as much as three to five weeks, suggesting a likely bottom in the second half of October.
Top 5
Changes this week: Added INO
Near-Term – chronological order
AAPL Apple – New iPhone preorders
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
INO Inovio – INO-4800 China trial results and VGX-3100 HPV Phase 3 results by yearend
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
US Dollar
The dollar hit the upper part of its steep trend channel. Today’s down candle is huge. The first big support is down at 110, and that would still have the $USD above its 50 day moving average. This is a positive for stocks and precious metals.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, September 30
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – +6.6% expected: Core +4.7% expected
Tuesday, October 4
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – Unspec – A.G.P.’s Virtual Consumer Cannabis Conference
Wednesday, October 5
OPEC+ meeting
Friday, October 7
September Payrolls – 8:30am – +250,000 expected; August was +315,000
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.02) announced the first shipments of AC5 under their new reimbursement support program. That usually means selling AC5 at a big discount or even giving it away, in an effort to get doctors to try it and as a way to engage with payers. They said that in September alone, they expect to invoice more than twice the total number of commercial units shipped year to date. Units, not dollars. ARTH is a Hold for a buyout.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2023
Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2023
Probable time of next financing: June 2022 quarter
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.03) popped when the FDA accepted a much smaller trial size for their current Phase 3 trial. The Data Monitoring Committee, which can see the unblinded results, agreed that reducing from 400 to 140 patients without modifying the trial objective or endpoints and maintaining a power greater than 90% (p-value under 0.01) for the primary endpoint is appropriate. That almost certainly means the results to date have been stellar.
They now expect to fully enroll in the March quarter and give us top-line results in the September 2023 quarter. Buy BLPH under $5 for a $30 first target and $100 someday.
Primary Risk: The Phase 2b PH-ILD trial fails or the FDA turns down the INOpulse.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2 transitioning to Phase 3 in March quarter
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2021
Probable time of next financing: March 2023 quarter
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $10.97) did a fireside chat at the Jefferies Innovation in Mental Health Summit (AUDIO HERE). It was the basic presentation. They are leaving details for the October 12 Investor Day and will start Phase 3 before the end of the year. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2023
Inovio (INO – $1.68) expects final data analysis from the heterologous boost trial of INO-4800 being conducted by Advaccine in China by the end of this year. It’s a huge market and Inovio will have the most effective alternative.
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We’ll also get efficacy and safety follow-up data from the VGX-3100 trial in HPV either late this year or early in 2023.
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Just under 20% of the outstanding float in the stock is currently sold short. INO is a Buy under $7 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2024
Invitae (NVTA – $2.39) became the first genetics testing company to get a three-year appointment to a National Quality Forum committee that provides input on recommendations to the Department of Health and Human Services for quality standards that impact how healthcare is delivered. Joining the Measure Applications Partnership Clinician workgroup committee will help make genetics the standard of care in mainstream medicine. Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.81) reported a confirmed partial response to MDNA11 in a fourth-line metastatic pancreatic cancer patient who had previously failed chemotherapy and checkpoint inhibitor therapy. In the 14 patients in the low- and mid-dose cohorts the Phase 1/2 trial they had a tumor control rate of 36% in advanced metastatic cancer. The fifth dose-escalation cohort is currently enrolling patients with no dose-limiting toxicities observed in the trial to date. Buy MDNA under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: March 2024
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.34) did a very good fireside presentation at the Ladenburg Thalmann Healthcare Conference (AUDIO and SOME SLIDES HERE). The Phase 3 trial in invasive candidiasis is underway, enrolling at 10 sites. The are planning 70 sites globally with results in early 2024 and approval by the end of 2024.
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In the very serious invasive candidiasis (25% mortality) and even more serious candida auris (60% mortality), ibrexafungerp is effective:
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Buy SCYX under $3 for a first target price of $20 now that Brexafemme is approved and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
Probable time of next financing: second half of 2023 or newer
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $142.48) dropped after Bloomberg reported that the company is backing off from their plan to increase iPhone 14 manufacturing by six million units. Instead, they will aim to produce 90 million handsets by the end of the year, roughly the same level as last year and in line with Apple’s original forecast this summer. I think that just means they are balancing to unit demand, and does not address the key issue: the more expensive iPhone Pro models are in hot demand, and these have a higher price point and better profit margins.
But BofA downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral and lowered its price target from $185 to $160, so a few weak hands were washed out and you have a great chance – finally! – to Buy AAPL under $150 for the new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Meta Platforms (META – $136.41) is making it easier to more easily switch between and create new accounts and profiles on Facebook and Instagram. People can now create an account with their existing Facebook or Instagram login, and use it to sign up for additional accounts and profiles. This has been a real pain in the neck for Facebook users. META is a Buy under $250 for a $400 target in 2023 or 2024.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $17.10) is making a tender offer to purchase a portion of its outstanding US dollar-denominated notes and its US dollar- and euro-denominated senior notes, probably due to the collapse in the yen. Regardless of the reason, it’s a good move to strengthen the balance sheet. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,669.00) was flat for the week as a bit of safe haven buying came in. So far this year, gold has outperformed US bonds, foreign bonds, the S&P 500, foreign stocks, the Nasdaq, and US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The only things that have outperformed gold are commodities, especially oil and agricultural goods, and the US dollar. The fractal dimension still shows a huge amount of energy to power the next trend.
Miners & Related
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.07) was hit after they did an $80 million offering, 15.7 million shares at $5.10 each. They didn’t need the money, but with the capital markets closing for junior miners they will have some great opportunities to buy royalty streams at attractive prices. SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $19,461.53) spiked over $20,000 when the market moved up and quickly retreated when stocks fell back. It is acting like a high beta, risk-on asset, not a safe haven or store of value. I don’t think this will last as the volatility in global currencies accelerates, so dollar-cost averaging in is a good plan.
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $81.65
The premium over the near-month paper price of oil for actual physical oil delivered today is rising rapidly, a sign that the physical market isn’t drowning in all that “demand destruction.” The shortfall in supply is well over one million barrels a day:
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The oil markets will be in shortfall as long as the current recession is no larger than half the size of the 2008-2009 downturn. Anything bigger than that would put the oil market in a surplus unless OPEC+ cut production – which, of course, they would do. They like $100 oil. At next week’s OPEC meeting, Russia is going to ask for a one million barrels a day cut to the quotas. Reuters reported this morning that several major producers in the OPEC+ alliance have started talks about a potential oil production cut and their source said it is “likely” that the group will agree on a cut.
Plus, the US plans to announce new oil sanctions targeting Iran now that President Biden’s initiative to reverse Trump’s pull out of the nuclear deal has failed.
Immediately ahead, sufficient electricity generation is a major cause of concern for Europe. Faced with soaring natural gas prices and limited supply, European utilities may choose to burn refined oil products such as fuel oil, diesel, and gasoline instead of natural gas for electricity generation. Doing so would be highly economic, as indicated by the price differential of more than $250/barrel of oil equivalent (boe) between Dutch TTF Natural Gas and Brent Crude:
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In response to soaring natural gas prices in Europe and Asia and associated switching activity, the International Energy Agency recently revised its oil demand growth estimate upwards by 380,000 boe/d to 2.1 million boe/d. I think the IEA is substantially underestimating the potential impact of gas-to-oil switching this winter.
There is approximately 810,000 boe/d of installed oil burning capacity in Europe and Asia alone that will come online before this winter — more than double the IEA estimate:
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The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $28.94) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.
* * * * *
Now that the end of globalization is upon us, we can start preparing for what comes next: the greatest agricultural expansion in the history of the republic.
* * * * *
We are just 40 days away from the midterm elections.
* * * * *
Your reading The Future History of the Nuclear Renaissance Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.58) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.03) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $10.97) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.07) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $1.68) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $2.39) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.81) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.34) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $5.99) – Buy under $7, target price $25+
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $142.48) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $29.62) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $63.07) – Buy under $70, target price $100
Meta (META – $136.41) – Buy under $250, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $17.10) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $38.79) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $8.98) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $23.18) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.49) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $9.87) – Buy under $10, target price $20 to $30
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.16) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $4.11) – Buy under $6, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – ($18.83) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $20.81) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $23.22) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $15.46) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $23.50) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.41) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $7.25) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.31) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.07) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $33.50) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $19,461.53) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $11.33) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,332.44) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $9.07) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $26.49) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $30.95) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $13.54) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $24.56) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $0.97) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.15) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $28.94) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.04) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $3.02) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.30) – Hold for FDA meeting
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.02) – Hold for buyout
Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108
New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.
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Number 1
The Florida hurricane proves how fragile the oil market is . The retail price of gas blew up here almost overnight. From $4.79 to $5.49. And climbing. All the refineries in the gulf have been shut down, or at least were.
@JOHn. More han that, the natural gas blowing out of the Mediterranean, from whome ever blew up #1 and #2 has put an enormouse demand for LNG or narural gas and we are the only ones wih an “on purpose squeeze on production due to some fable called “Climate Change” and some President getting rolled by his own staff or puppet masters keeping this stupidity in existence. Manchin gave up today for permitting loosening and that just is giving price projections the fits. I’m glass that lending has been opened up with STRIVE and its DRLL, to evade the ESG socialism that now pervades the SEC selectees of the currant folks in the White House. Then the President gets up and yells about “you better not increase the price of fossil fuels????? Is the the “earth?” And John, yes, there are restrictions on exporting now via the gulf of Mexico. Wow! I am getting a headache.
Yes, I read about the Nord Stream leak. It’s spewing tons of methane and natural gas into the atmosphere. And the latest rumor is Russia sabotaged the thing itself. Gasoline in Europe was already projected to hit $10.00 a gallon before the leak. And the head of the EU said to put a cap on the price of oil. Now , just how in hell is that happening. Biden released 10 million barrels of oil from the SPR this week. When does the unground tank run out?
I think that the current release may be close to the bottom. The first release was of what I think was Bunker C which is basically one step up from road tar. Unfortunately, there was not refinery in the USA that can refine this so it was sent to Russia or perhaps via Italy who conveyed it there.
“VisualCapital.com ” is a good place to get a background to learn about many aspects behind investment areas. This includes non-investment topics
like realestate availability which can help in evaluating
aspects that might underlay a view an area.
The WSJ of Sept 25th has a detailed analysis about the status of the national reserve oil situation. There is a lot of oil available in the cache, but the rules about building reserves after the winter draws enter in so that a technical management rule will be the trouble spot in the spring.
Therefore I am wrong about how low the actual oil lever is more of a legal situation in spring of 2023 – which means politicians can have fun with numbers as opposed to real world.
But since the election will be passed by then, look behind the news to read “politician truth” no matter how the election goes.
OOPS FRIDAY 23rd (Better keep the new glasses on.)
Biden is releasing another 10 million barrels again this week in response to OPEC’s announcement that they will cut production another 2 million barrels a day. The last I heard it’s down to 1980 levels now. (Before the 10 million coming out this week. ) Oil is up today on the news and the production cuts haven’t even hit the gas stations yet. Get ready for more inflation (the FED staying on task to raise rates) and the voodoo of the stock market in the month of October. Plus 2 big up days in markets , back to back. Some market guru’s calling for another 10 percent pullback before we hit bottom. 3400 or 3200 on the S&P. I am pulling back to cash on some of my positions.
MM Great RR
@Michael Murphy, Another great head twister with that merry go round on the cost of money and how to get + with a Minus.Is Powell in change of something? I can’r understand who is moving the money, anymore. Your points are right on. Small suggestion, The small text print in the body of the Radar paragraphs is harder to read for us geezers. Maybe it’s the lightness of the ink?? Maybe I’m just old.
I really don’t know how those Nord Stream sabotages are gonna resolve them selves now that Putin is going to announce how their “ahem” election shows Russia owns most of the East side of Ukraine.
Getting too cold in New England. I hope they don’t have some power outages.GLTA.
Dear Michael, OK let’s try this again. Do you have the results on the following votes (ARTH):
The company filed a proxy statement for the September 29 annual meeting. There are seven items:
1. Elect four directors – vote Yes
2. Approve a reverse stock split of not less than 1-for-100 and not greater than 1-for-200 – vote No Way
3. Approve an increase the number of authorized shares of common stock – vote No
4. Approve, on an advisory basis, the compensation of Executive Officers – vote No
5. Approve, on an advisory basis, how frequently stockholders believe we should conduct an advisory vote on the compensation of our Named Executive Officers – vote No
6. Approve a proposal to grant discretionary authority to adjourn the Meeting, if necessary, to solicit additional proxies – vote No
7. Ratify the appointment of Baker Tilly as independent auditors – vote Yes
Thank you and GOD Bless you!
George
P.s. my may concern is the reverse split, hopefully, they voted against it!!
MM – member Sam Hopkins says the TGTX 12/28 PDUFA will be a major price driver (he predicts 5x) – do you agree? You have a $25 target on it which is a 4X, is that near term or long term, what will drive that target and when? I am looking for a stock that I can profit from in the near term, I need one winner to help me psychologically from so many losses – is TGTX it?
@steve
you are miss representing what i poster in the last RR. the PDUFA date is 1 driver then they need sales and RX growth. my 5X is not on PDUFA only.
my post from 9/22 RR
@steve
best in class treatment in 10+B this year projected to grow to over 20B buy 2028, market segmented into something like 7 categorizes. we have 350M float IF we can get %5 of that 20+B or 1/3 of our segment of the ms market.
than —– check my math
1B / 350m = 2.8 * pe10 = sp$28
i might bat 300 on a good day so do your own DD
As I recall
Roch makes the drug Ocrevus (ocrelizumab) that Ubri was compared to in the Ultimate 1-2 trial and that drug is forecast to do B7 buy 2028. anti-cd20 is something like 1/3 $ of the MS market and is about 10B and growing. Ubri can get 1/3 of that 3 years out maybe more.
My # 3-5B on MS
Samuel – so care to give a timeframe for your 5X prediction?
@Steve
i already did. Do some of your own DD
Hey what’s with the pissy attitude, aren’t we all here to help each other invest wisely, cmon man, lighten up and be a better comrade, we dont need another Michael on this board
@Steve
whats pissy about it? I stand on it, simple statement. what DD do you have to share on the topic of tgtx and or do you feel that my assumptions or time frame on tgtx are erroneous.
Yes you do with ideas like ARTH and Tesla gas powered vehicles. This board has become irrelevant,
MM – SCYX you say, “probable time of next FDA approval is mid 2022”, we are past mid-2022 and in last week’s newsletter you said the PDUFA date was 11/30, if accurate can you update this on the newsletter, please? I asked you what the chances of approval are, and you didn’t answer. You say first target is $20 which is a 10X from where its at today, can you advise what the catalyst is that will cause a 10X and when? I own this stock at $10 and my first target is to get back to even so I would appreciate conservative guidance on this stock – is it worth holding? If the drug is approved on 11/30 will it be a significant price driver? Should I average down? I need help on this loser please.
RE ARTH:
arch20220930_8k.htm (archtherapeutics.com)
Looks like the reverse split passed along with all other management proposals.
And most likely once the reverse split is completed figuring it to be 2 dollars a share,nochi will begin to issue new shares at 1.75 to raise funds to pay his salary ,so so sad
I doubt they have any significant sales booked. The big picture is that the AC5 variants (oops, sounds like covid variants) are investigational. They may work well, but since they are classified as investigational, few doctors and hospitals are going to take legal risks dealing with investigational products. This company is a financial AND legal disaster in every way.
Question for the Mastermind: Who blew up the Nordstream Pipeline? and why?
mostly ignored news on Main stream media and the little news that trickled out was pointing fingers at Russia .
Russia had full control of the pipelines on its end and had spent Billions along with its European partners.
Our President had said months back- those pipelines would no longer be there if…
If Russia wanted to stop the flow of gas they could do it more simply. Qui bonum? Ukraine and the U.S. benefit by cutting off the supply of Russian gas to Germany, which otherwise could have decided that the pain of helping Ukraine by not buying Russian gas was not worthwhile. Who dunnit? Maybe our grandchildren will find out.
Emergency Fed meeting Monday morning.
OPEC+ will be meeting in person in Vienna on Oct 5, changing its original plan for a video-conference call.
Calling an in-person meeting at the last minute may mean the group is planning big oil production cuts. Between a one million barrels a day cut and the SPR one million barrels a day drain ending in three weeks, oil supply is about to drop sharply.
MM – so how are you suggesting we invest in this development?
It is a real shame we are using the SPR to finance subsidies for EV’s, that are seeing limits already. We had a bargaing topping off the SPR during 2017to 2020, Filling it at market will take a long time now. Hope we don’t have any weather catastrophes that hit refineries and production of fossils and pretrochemicals.
Tesla receives no subsides. Got another talking point? Presidents have played with the SPR forever but apparently this time is different?
F.U.D. is the market driver today. And there is little chance we will have some more shocks to keep it going. Number one is the legal decision on a former President just before election day and “vote often” rules the day.
nice TSLA YoY Q3 production up over 50%
@ Mr. Hopkins, I’m betting he will announce a hybrid, if not a full fossil.
Just guessing November election results wil get our energy systems in the US opening again.
Maybe Musk has such clout that people will snap up even his fossil fuel cars. Definitely his hybrids. Agree. The market wants both.
Not Wants, MUST HAVE. Remember Tesla and the others still consume electricity. Nothing says your electric auto might
be consuming oil generated by coal, oil and even wind.
Only the Tesla will keep you waiting longer to refill.
Right, MUST HAVE. Alt energy is not renewable, because they have lots of environmental costs to produce it.
I love coming to this board to get the old world, buggy whip ideas .. lol.
even if you charge with %100 coal fired electricity the plug in vehicle is so good at converting that energy it will beet a liquid fuel vehicle.
@Donald
i would take that bet, tsla will not do a hybrid or produce any IC cars or trucks.
Seriously. How can this be called the new world investment letter with old fossil views? Amazing.
Read up on Sandy Monroe who absolutely detests hybrids. Musk will NEVER do a hybrid or ICE vehicle. It’s amazing that anyone would even be entertaining an idea like that .. simply not paying attention at all.
Good afternoon all. Old Mr shiny gold is getting another booster. We’ve seen a lot of them. OK St Jude. patron saint of lost causes. Give us precious metal holders a break.
MM and Board YOU mentioned there might be time to exit OIL and repurchase later any further thoughts? Did the Ann of England just prevent a crisis? Is this
A One off event or is this tell for another CRISIS ((-:
Anyone here that likes SMR ? Small scale Nuc plants for base load.
modular and or pebble bed nukes are a must.
smart grid (that means rebuild the grid)
ect.
Anyone know why ARTH has more than doubled today?
TIA Artbill
Just a penny more was all it needed to double !
ARTH may be OK for a trade at present. The trouble with most NWI small stocks is that they have to decline by over 90% to make trades or even speculative investments worth the risk.
SAND. Great news for this Murphy pick. Looks like it is ready to take off from here
Sandstorm Gold Royalties Announces Record Sales and Revenue in Third Quarter 2022 | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
Hey while you guys debate oil and penny stocks, Biden just pardoned pot possession prisoners and pushing for rescheduling.
Smart.
Pot stock are rocketing.
TLRY my favorite.
The Radar Report for 10.6.22 is posted.