Dear New World Investor:
I could be wrong, but:
* * I didn’t think Putin would invade Ukraine on February 16, I don’t think President Biden’s “sense” that there will be an invasion in the “next several days” is any more accurate, and I think if Putin really wanted to invade, he would have done it already. He knows better than blow up the Russian economy, especially when high oil prices are pouring in cash. Diplomacy will win out and he’s going to end up getting what he wants anyway.
* * I still think inflation will start falling in March and fall quickly after April as the base effect goes away. The Ned Davis Research Inflation Timing Model has started to roll over but remains high.
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* * I think the biggest real problem we have is the Fed raising rates and shrinking their balance sheet into the teeth of a slowing economy that they could tip into a recession.
* * I still think we will see only two quarter-point increases in the Fed funds rate at most this year, and then they’ll back off through the midterm elections. Wall Street is expecting six to seven increases.
Goldman Sachs calculated that fiscal support in 2021 boosted real disposable income to 5% above the pre-pandemic trend, on average. But the expanded child tax credit expired at the end of the year, so disposable income probably has dipped below trend and will remain an average of 1% below the pre-pandemic trend in 2022 even after strong gains in labor income. That will weigh on consumer spending.
Goldman expects growth to slow to only slightly above potential by the end of the year, but the impact will be cushioned by the spending of $2.5 trillion of excess savings built up during the pandemic. I don’t believe that. The bottom 90% of Americans don’t have much in savings. It belongs almost entirely to those in the top 10%, who don’t need to spend it.
Here’s an interesting chart. The trend in US population growth is clear: The latest year-over-year print was a meager +0.1%. I leave it to you to estimate where 10-year Treasury yields are going in the long term.
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Market Outlook
After today’s wipeout, the S&P 500 lost 2.7% since last Thursday and closed below the 61.8% retracement level from the January 4 high. The Index is down 8.1% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.3% and is down 12.3% for the year. The massive declines in the most highly valued stocks have left the Composite’s Price to Sales ratio well below its pre-COVID high and back to the range it was in for much of 2018 and 2019.
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The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped only 1.1% and is down 9.7% in 2022.
Investor sentiment is terrible. AAII bears were up five points to 43.2% today (the recent peak was 53.0% at the January low). Bulls are non-existent – down five points to 19.2%. The last time they were teenagers was 2016 and they are the least bullish on stocks since April 2020. Individual investors don’t get much more bearish than this. There have been 31 weeks when fewer than 20% of respondents in the AAII survey were bullish. After 29 of them, the S&P 500 rallied over the next 3 months.
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The fractal dimension probably will signal a downtrend IF next week is as bad as this week. But we might see some recovery tomorrow due to options expiration.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
NVTA Invitae – Earnings 2/24
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
MDNA Medicenna – Partner for MDNA55
FB Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
Long-Term – alphabetical order
ARTH Arch Therapeutics – High-value wound care and hemostat for surgery
CWBR CohBar – mitochondria drugs and life extension
GRPH Graphic Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
FB Meta – a leader in the metaverse
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects 1.3% real GDP growth for the March quarter, just below the Blue Chip economists’ 1.9%. A weak quarter, either way.
Virus Update
Worldometers now shows 499,890,900 worldwide confirmed infections, of which 349,428,109 have run their course. Of those, 343,549,292 recovered and 5,878,817 died – a new low case fatality rate of 1.7%.
In the US, there have been 79,877,411 confirmed infections, of which 51,872,489 have run their course. Of those, 50,918,386 recovered and 954,103 died, a slightly improved case fatality rate of 1.8%.
Daily new cases have plunged below 130,000 as the omicron variant burns itself out.
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Hospitalizations are falling with new cases, as expected.
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Daily deaths have followed hospitalizations down and are under 2,000.
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We’ve achieved Fauci’s “80% for herd immunity” vaccination level.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most of the presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Monday, February 21
Markets Closed – President’s Day
Thursday, February 24
December quarter GDP – 8:30am – Second estimate
TGTX – TG Therapeutics – Three posters at Americas Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis
NVTA – Invitae – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
Friday, February 25
Short Interest – After the close
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations typically are very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations have moved very high. We are seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out of favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.09) reported December quarter revenues of only $4,696. They finished the quarter with $1.1 million in cash, not enough to carry them through the end of the March quarter. They are about to do another financing. They had the full sales effort working for the March quarter and we should see some real progress. ARTH is a Buy up to $0.70 for a $2 target after a distribution deal is signed and a $7 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2021
Probable time of first FDA approval: External done. Internal 2022
Probable time of next financing: March 2022 quarter
Biocept (BIOC – $2.55) appointed Darrell Taylor as Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer on February 10. CEO Michael Nall said: “Darrell’s strong leadership background and his combination of diagnostics industry experience and legal expertise makes him an excellent fit for Biocept.” He has over 20 years as a healthcare attorney honing his skills at the global law firm DLA Piper. He has provided legal, regulatory, and compliance counsel to leading biopharmaceutical companies as well as numerous biotech start-ups. A strong hire, indeed.
But yesterday the company appointed a new interim CEO and an interim CFO. “Interim” means the former CEO and CFO were fired. Why? I don’t know, but it smells. SELL BIOC IMMEDIATELY. We may be back when we find out what the problem is…or not.
Primary Risk: They run out of money.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Maybe none needed
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $10.99) presented at the SVB Leerink Global Healthcare Conference (ZOOM HERE). We will get initial clinical data from the sickle cell trial by the end of this year. The key advantage of Graphite’s approach is that it cures sickle cell by normalizing every red blood cell. GRPH is a Buy under $26 for a $50 target in 2022, $100 in 2023, and then higher.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: 2023 or 2024
Invitae (NVTA – $9.70) gave a fireside chat at SVB Leerink (ZOOM HERE). CEO Sean George said They now sell everything from $99 patient-pay tests to $5,000 exome-monitoring tests, so the Average Selling Price is becoming irrelevant. In general, prices for oncology tests are slightly down, reproductive and pediatric pricing is slightly up, and the others are flattish. They look at profit margins as the more relevant metric because they can trade off lower margins for higher volumes in each area.
Buy NVTA under $50 for a first target of $100 and eventually $200+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.71) made a combined slides and fireside chat presentation at SVB Leerink (ZOOM HERE). It was almost entirely focused on the science underlying MDNA11 that we have covered at length. Management said again that they are in active discussions to partner MDNA55. Show me the money!
Zack’s recommended MDNA with a $12 target. Buy MDNA under $4 for a first target of $40, then maybe $80.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: mid-2022
ScyNexis (SCYX – $4.47) should report December quarter Brexafemme prescriptions up about 280% from the September quarter to 4,150 scripts if the Symphony data is accurate. During a launch, it’s easy for Symphony to miss some channels, and it’s common for a company’s sales to be very different from prescriptions as the distributors figure out how much inventory to carry. ScyNexis usually reports annual results in the last half of March. Buy SCYX under $24 for a first target price of $54 now that Brexafemme is approved and a buyout at $170.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: mid-2022
Probable time of next financing: 2023 or never
Biotech MegaShift
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI – $5.55) got a $5.60 per share all-cash offer from Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL). As I said in a Flash Alert, don’t sell BDSI yet. It will take COLL at least three weeks to do their due diligence before they could discover a reason they don’t want to proceed with the offer.
In the meantime, if there is another company interested in BDSI they will make a higher bid by next Tuesday. Because the COLL offer is all-cash, we don’t have to worry about their stock price declining. So there is no downside to holding BDSI for a while to see if this bid flushes out another offer. And, of course, this bid drastically undervalues the potential of BDSI. Hold BDSI.
Primary Risk: Slow sales of Belbuca.
Clinical stage of lead product: Already approved
Probable time of first FDA approval: Already approved
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Apple (AAPL – $168.88) was rated a Strong Buy by Tigress Financial. They raised their target price from $198 to $210. AAPL is a Hold for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.
Meta Platforms (FB – $207.71) completed their $1 billion acquisition of customer service software company Kustomer after more than a year of antitrust scrutiny. FB is a Buy under $320 for a $400 target in 2022.
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $61.29) sent their Chief Medical Officer to present at SVB Leerink (ZOOM HERE). He emphasized their strategic push into oncology over the last two years, pointing out that they have a deep bench of new drugs coming in the pipeline. Most of the time was spent on their competitive position – they are in large, crowded markets. Needless to say, they think they are in a strong position based on early data for their programs.
The company announced that Veklury (remdesivir) retains its antiviral activity against omicron, delta, and eight other emergent SARS-CoV-2 variants in multiple in vitro (test tube) studies. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $105 for a first target of $130.
Other Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $19.20) reported December quarter revenues up 18.2% from last year to $97.72 million, clobbering the $92.48 million consensus. They lost 10¢ a share pro forma, also clobbering the 16¢ loss estimate. OK so far.
They guided for March quarter revenues of $97 million to $100 million, a bit above the consensus for $97.98 million, with pro forma earnings of -15¢ to -13¢ per share, a bit below the consensus for -13¢. Still, pretty much OK so far.
Then they guided for full-year revenues of $400 million to $410 million, below the consensus for $419 million, with a pro forma loss of 50¢ to 60¢ per share, compared to the consensus for a 48¢ loss. Oh-oh, not OK.
The stock fell 33.6% today, mostly because Ophir Gottlieb of Capital Market Labs gave up on it. (He’s the one who tanked Invitae twice.) He believes the full-year revenue guidance means the company is growing too slowly.
I think the former guidance was given by the former CFO, and the new guy is setting the bar low to make it easy to beat. I think the five-year growth forecast of 30% per year to get to $1 billion in sales by 2025 is still the plan, even if they want to undersell it. The market certainly is there, Fastly has superior products, and they are rapidly finding out effective ways to sell them.
For example, they started a program with a free $1 million credit for large companies that want to try compute@edge. They signed up 40 trials in the December quarter and they’re still marketing the program. If they get a good conversion rate to paying customers – and people who try compute@edge love it – they’ll easily beat the revenue guidance.
On the conference call (INVESTOR SUPPLEMENT HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said: “In the quarter, our worldwide network remains on average 30% faster in the U.S. and Europe than our largest competitor in most countries and regions as measured by independent real user data. Our significant advantage and performance validates our unique architecture.
“Performance is one of the most critical decision-making metrics for our customers. That is why we see us winning business with marquee customers like a Fortune 500 American diversified multinational mass media and entertainment conglomerate this past quarter. They chose Fastly due to our superior performance and global reach. They also joined a growing list of our customers that have quickly expanded beyond delivery to run security features with our Compute@Edge platform which is a great affirmation of our land-and-expand strategy. It also further validates our view that delivery is a means to the edge.”
That is Fastly in a nutshell. Take advantage of this sell-off and Buy FSLY up to $45 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $150+ as compute@edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
QuickLogic (QUIK – $5.34) reported December quarter revenues up 48.4% from last year to $3.71 million, virtually on the $3.9 million consensus. New product revenue was $2.7 million. They had a pro forma loss of four cents a share, much better than the seven-cent loss expected. They had the best quarterly cash flow from operating activities in more than 10 years.
On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they were approached to do a private placement and raised $1.48 million at no discount to the market. They guided for March quarter revenues of $4 million ±15%. Of that, $3.4 million is new products. For the full year, they expect to grow at least as fast as they did in 2021 and could approach $20 million in sales. They expect to be profitable in the June quarter.
QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $60 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1,899.50) shot up on Ukraine war fears. The thing to watch now is whether it can stay above $1,842 after those fears calm down. Goldman Sachs just said the two best commodity hedges are oil and gold, with a 12-month target of $2,150 an ounce. I think it could happen sooner than that.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Square, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $40,404.06) is consolidating its recent pop from under $35,000 to $45,000. I’m doing a deep dive on the long term implications of proof-of-work this weekend to try to get more specific price targets.
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China.
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.46) will benefit from the inevitable legalization of recreational marijuana by every state and the Federal government.
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ACRDF is a buy under $4.49 for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Canopy Growth does not acquire the company.
Oil – $91.58
Crude fell $2.08 today after touching $95 this week. The fundamentals continue to improve as global inventories drain to very low levels. Diesel is especially short. I expect this to accelerate as OPEC+ fails to deliver on their supply add-backs, the shale revival is slow, and people realize that the supposed new oil from Iran actually has been sold on the black market for years.
Drilled but uncompleted wells in US shale regions continue to plunge. There isn’t much new drilling going on.
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The US is importing more and more crude, clearly reversing a 15-year trend in the opposite direction, while product exports are at the lowest levels in five years and the strategic petroleum reserve is at its lowest level since the early 2000s. We’re very short oil.
The Energy Information Administration reported the US total liquids stockpile down 12.6 million barrels yesterday. US implied oil demand on a four-week average hit an all-time high above 22 million barrels a day. We’re now at least two million barrels a day above any analyst’s demand estimates.
Despite higher oil prices, demand in the US is not subsiding. Total products supplied was 22.1 million barrels a day versus 21.9 million last week. Demand is off the charts. You are going to see $5 a gallon gasoline as soon as oil hits $100. You might see $6.50 or $7 in high-tax states like California.
But people don’t believe oil is headed higher to stay. That’s a seriously backwardated crude curve.
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The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.66) is a Buy under $24 for an $80+ target.
* * * * *
Wag The (Ukraine) Dog
* * * * *
An early contender for the feat of the century in two maps: between 2000 and 2020, India expanded electricity access to 900 million people. This, but in Africa, is the bull case for oil and gas over the next 20 years.
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* * * * *
Your reading our macro friend Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Antares Pharma (ATRS – $3.40) – Buy under $5, first target $10, then $50
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $1.19) – Buy under $4, ultimate target $45
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.12) – Buy under $0.70, first target $2, then $7
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $2.22) – Buy under $11, first target $30, then $300
CohBar (CWBR – $0.31) – Buy under $2, hold a long time
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $14.74) – Buy under $36, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $9.09) – Buy under $26, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $3.59) – Buy under $21, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $10.47) – Buy under $50, first target $100, then $200+
Medicenna (MDNA – $1.65) – Buy under $4, first target $40, then maybe $80
ScyNexis (SCYX – $4.50) – Buy under $24, target price $54, then $170
Other Biotech
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $1.78) – Buy under $5, target $15 or $25
BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI – $)3.59 – Buy under $9, target $15
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $10.14) – Buy under $40, target price $80+
Tech Dominators
Corning (GLW – $42.61) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Facebook (FB – $237.76) – Buy under $320, target price $400
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $65.39) – Buy under $105, target price $130
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.23) – Buy under $30, target price $60
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $46.69) – Buy under $32; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $25.56) – Buy under $45; 2- to 5-year hold to $150+
PagerDuty (PD – $30.95) – Buy under $40; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $4.89) – Buy under $10, target price $60
Velo3D (VLD – $6.09) – Buy under $11, target price $50
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $9.03) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation (LMACA – $10.09) – Buy under $10.50, target price $20 to $30
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – $22.42 – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $26.05) – Buy under $25, target price $50
ALPS Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $37.39) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $17.33) – Buy under $15, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $32.37) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $4.50) – Buy under $10, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $9.84) – Buy under $15, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.67) – Buy under $5, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.88) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $34.00) – Buy under $30, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $36,975.84) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $24.63) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $2,685.76) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $19.67) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $39.08) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – 40.31 – Buy under $34 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $18.87) – Buy under $24 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $35.84) – Buy under $50 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.38) – Buy under $4.49 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.15) – Buy under $1.25; long-term hold
Oil
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55, $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $27.35) – Buy under $24, $80+ target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $6.23) – Hold for CEO comment
Apple Computer (AAPL – $172.90) – Hold for 5G iPhones
Sell
Biocept (BIOC – $2.67) – Sell immediately
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Early bird for once
Good for you!!
I agree with your opinion on Putin. It’s all about the price of oil. Since the majority of Russia’s revenue comes from oil, then it’s in Putin’s best interest to do anything to make the price of oil go up. Which he has already done just by telling the world he would bring it to the Ukrainian people . Heads he wins , tails he wins . Not to mention that he is silently taking over the Belarus economy. He is going to win on several fronts and never fire a single shot. And meanwhile he is a major pain in the ass for Joe B, our stock market and the rest of the world. IMO
If you expect inflation to roll over wouldn’t that put downward pressure on inflation hedges like gold and maybe oil?
Exactly.
MM–inflation could decline from the present 7% to 4% or so. But even at 4%, interest rates cannot be raised enough to combat that moderate inflation without magnifying the already unsustainable huge debt. So inflation will be a problem for the foreseeable future. Quality stocks, not speculative ones, will be an inflation hedge, until another Paul Volcker comes along and forces interest rates to skyrocket when there is sustained hyperinflation and stagflation.
The 30-year Treasury yield is 2.25%, so the usually right bond guys are expecting inflation under 2%. The reason you can’t get high inflation for long is it kills demand, which lowers prices.
I question the dictum that long term bond yields reflect inflation. Low short term yields come from money printing. Until money printing is drastically cut, medium term yields will rise also. Same reasoning applies to long term bond yields. In the late 70’s, there was high inflation. But that didn’t kill demand, since the huge money supply was there to fuel demand. What killed inflation was Volcker’s severe interest rate hikes and contraction of the money supply. Due to the current unprecedented debt, even moderate rate hikes are out of the question, which will sustain inflation.
Another line of reasoning. Suppose that inflation is 10% for 5 years. A Volcker type is forced to take action, raises rates to kill inflation, and we get fiscally responsible politicians, so for the following 25 years inflation is near zero. Do the math, and for the next 30 years, the average inflation is low. Then a 30 year bond of today yielding 3% may be a safe haven
Above $1877/oz. as it is at the moment AU has, finally, broken out. Target unknown, but generally higher; so, no inflation remission, at least for the foreseeable future.
Oil is moving on supply/demand, not inflation. Gold is moving on inflation, but longer-term I think it moves as a geopolitical safe haven.
MM–on MDNA, you said “Management said again that they are in active discussions to partner MDNA55. Show me the money!”
Yes, and why haven’t partners shown up for the late phase 3? Same language as from failing ARTH.
I posted recently about how Zack’s target of $12 is complete BS–utter speculation. Keep in mind that there are MANY competing treatment methods for treating cancer, with most of them having poor-to-moderate efficacy at best. The companies that succeed in the marketplace are the ones with political savvy to bury their competitors, even if competitors have a superior therapy. And it is not a FREE marketplace– it is closer to a political election. These companies are NOT investments if their odds of success are anywhere from lottery tickets to maybe 30%.
I get what you are saying – it is political – but a vastly superior IL2 would be hard to ignore.
Even if their IL2 analog is superior, there is more to fighting disease than any one factor. Other companies’ strategies still offer lots of competition, and then political favoritism is always a hurdle.
I emailed Daniel Ferry of IR and received this response regarding MDNA55:
Hello Doug,
Thank-you again for your interest in Medicenna.
Again, while the Company continues to engage in active discussions in pursuit of a partner for MDNA55, the Company plans to make a public announcement if and when a deal is signed.
I really appreciate your email.
Kind regards,
Dan
“If and when…” So what.
ARTH: “Primary Risk: AC5 fails to sell or the internal trial fails.
Clinical stage of lead product: External approved. Internal trial 2021″
Isn’t it a little late to start the internal trial in 2021? Do you know something we don’t, or are you just not paying close attention (despite all the subscriber questions in the commentariat)?
ARTH- More than “not paying attention” MM should get ready to, 3 years and 75% late, finally and belatedly let this turd go like BIOC. The 2021 results speak for themselves and clearly show that there is NO market for AC5. A brand new fantastic medtech that evidently nobody needs, which explains why no Biopharma bid for ARTH in 2018-2019.
MM–ARTH has had several new employees in charge of marketing for about a year, but they haven’t yet produced results. Lovell is all headlines but no action. What makes you think the next 3 months will be different? If so, then if the next 3 months produce still unimpressive sales, then you will have to give up on ARTH.
Nope. ARTH is looking more and more like QUIK. It was going to balloon in price when everyone bought their sensor hub technology. That was 10 years ago and it’s still the mantra. ARTH apparently does not know how to sell their supposedly superior products.
I wish you were correct. But ARTH is no QUIK. QUIK had good revenue, but continued fiscal losses due to fast moving new technology making QUIK’s legacy products obsolete. ARTH can’t even get off the ground, with their paltry revenue. The next quarter will tell if you and MM are correct. Promises, promises, ….
jgmd , i agree with everything you said,but as of late arth has been performing better than nvta..if sean george keeps losing as much as he has been nvta is heading to 5 dollars a share,hopefully he can stop this trainwreck on thursday
“ A brand new fantastic medtech that evidently nobody needs”
Except the 73,000 people who had a diabetic foot amputation last year?
Yes, the diabetics need it, but Big Pharma has agendas governed by politics rather than which product is best.
And ARTH has been UNABLE to reach these suffering people in THREE years? Norchi is a complete failure as a CEO. Business 101.
HELO CORP (symbol HLOC)
News out 2/16
“HELO CORP Targets Worldwide Personalized Nutrition Market with
Funding of SantePatch”.
This non-invasive technology in the precision nutrition market is huge
and innovative IMO.
Digital Medical Data is all about the world we live in today.
Everyone should view the video in the news release.
It is really worth owning a position for the long haul. IMO
Michael,
I would appreciate your review of HELO’s company news release
and your opinion. Keeping in mind no debt and .11 EPS for 1st 3 quarters 2021, 53mm in revs and 10 mm in cash on the balance sheet.
What’s not to love about HLOC as a long term investment.
Excellent Radar Michael Murphy. Everything seems “waffling” this morning, just as you indicated. Silver is over $24.00 and gold is playing around $1900.And we are getting played by Putin. No guts in the White House to re-impose the ban on Nordstream 2 and initiate a quicker return to oil price sanity and I can buy another gas guzzler. Sayonara BIOC and GLTA
“No guts in the White House to re-impose the ban on Nordstream 2…”
C’mon, Don, surely you understand the concept of deterrence. Once you pull the trigger the whole effect of the threat is lost. I actually like the way Biden has pulled NATO and our relations with EU back toward normal. Putin figured this would split NATO into squabbling factions. Biden has so far maneuvered not to have it turn out that way.
@Steph Kam, I understand your point, but, to me, the issue is exactly what national interest is our President navigating? Gemany’s? Belarus? His posture is completely defensive with orchestrated tough talk. Leading from behind, IMHO. I agree with MM that Putin gets what he wants, for the time being. We get $5.00 at the gas pumps. All IMHO, of course. I respect your perspective.
Our President is navigating an interest of the working man and woman INMHO
Working only in DC.
But dinner has not started, this is just the drinks and snacks. Just look at the rest of europe and more. Not only China has proof going back 10K years that anything Russia wants is his too
If only the bartender would slip two mickies.
PS: Remember, every new US President must be
tested by the other side during his first year –
only this year they found a year is not enough
as it is also a now with a tangable score
Remember the end comes flying low and
radioactive. Both sides have them, we don’t
Putin is winning already. The price of oil/gas has shot up in this area is just the last couple of weeks. The oil markets are now so fragile , all it takes is a rumor that there will be a disruption in supply. And Putin laughs all the way to the bank. The US is helping him by killing off all the oil companies in the US in our Green push to make fossil fuel consumption net ZERO.
Buy a Tesla and you will never look at gas prices again.
Only booming power prices
It costs me 5 bucks to fill up my 50kwh model 3 ( which I never do). How much are you paying at the pump?
NC has 4 nuke plants and we pay .10 per KWH. I doubt it will move much.
FYI, I took my proceeds from BIOC and put it in BX, based upon a persuasive analyst conversation yesterday with Stewart Varney on Fox Business. The point being that they tend to do well with up interest environments and also managed debt pretty well with a nice dividend for their holders. Any comments?
You had proceeds from BIOC?? I’ve held Blackstone for almost a year and it has been a great investment. The company has their hands in things all over the world and pays a nice divy. My only concern is a housing crash will hurt them as the are heavily invested in real estate.
Bitcoin beware.
blob:https://newworldinvestor.com/69f8cf05-fea8-43ee-9ae4-22914ef672f5
MM…why do you not include fractals or technicals on bitcoin?
I will bet at leas one reason is that there is no such data at least for most technicals. For the USA exchange there is a standard reporting. Yet those stocks trades in the Black or Darn pools are invisable to us folks. In short, we are getting a partial view at best. I have owned some Churchill Down stock for decades. I one time this Louisville property does not officially trade in Kentucky. If you wanted to trade, there were several states (all having horse country. Generally the quotes were in the low $40s with a spread of $3.00.
If you were keeping a chart, just what was your date – a trade in one state could differ from elsewhere at the same time as there was no formal data base.
As to fractals, I am in no position to guess that the situation might be the same. How about stocks that trade in multiple countries and may or may not have a similar market in both places and times.
Canada would be worse. More interesting are stocks like Volkswagen which trade in several forms and in dfferent time zone and currencies.
Why not trade both at the same time via London.
There once was a famous trader who resided in Ceylon specifically to trade Asian Stocks via London and Europe and the reverse. Same with Japanese and even Austrailian trading.
@Michael Murphy and all, All things included, NVTA has to be the biggest long-term bargain on this Board as the result of a “cash flow be damned strategy” to buy up as much of diagnostic data bases to benefit an almost infinite big data base on the size of an Amazon. Either that, or they will be a siren song to that promise, that they will be unable to resist a takeover bid before our price target of $200 is parking our wait too long?
Bear markets hate unprofitable companies. Most of Murphy’s picks are unprofitable. Watch out below.
That’s another reason to sell small biotechs on the pop from approval, since they are still unprofitable and have high risk from the pop price.
Biden began speaking at 2:22 on 2/22/22… it must be 2sday.
The olde Kerr Mines, Anyone recall it? It had the support of Eric Mines, it’s major asset was the Copperstone Mine in the U.S. with good access to the roads and a nice infrastructure of buildings and permits with most of the gold on the top. This has morphed to several names and now is Sabre Gold with another asset Brewery Creek and, they say they are ready to go to production, really this year. This is my lottery ticket hold for a long time. Analysis just out today for this .05 equity for a target of .40 this year. Do your own due diligence;
Research Report (mcusercontent.com)
SCYX
Dr. Michael Burry dumps Scyx holdings
Hmmmm…..
Maybe he is a trader and cannot stand large short term losses in SCYX which we’ve all had. The company is still speculative for the long term.
On second thought, Burry liked the nice increase in scripts in less than 2 months. The latest YMB posts are encouraging, so it appears he is holding his position in SCYX.
Alert for CMPS and others using psilocybin in major depression (MDD)
research; May be great news for the most expensive mental illness disease in the world.
Psilocybin’s Antidepressant Effects Rapid, Durable (medscape.com)
“I don’t think President Biden’s “sense” that there will be an invasion in the “next several days” is any more accurate, and I think if Putin really wanted to invade, he would have done it already.”
Looks like Biden’s “sense” was pretty damn accurate.
Lotsa reasons for Putin to grab at least parts of Ukraine and install a puppet regime. Besides rebuilding the crumbled Russian empire, getting the attention and respect that Putrid believes he deserves, getting more control over gas supplies, and hopefully adding to his lackluster (at best) approval ratings at home, Putin needs water restored from Ukraine to Crimea (who shut off the tap after Crimea was seized):
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-19/russia-vs-ukraine-crimea-s-water-crisis-is-an-impossible-problem-for-putin
What do you expect from the guy who thought Trump would win and then said Trump actually did win? He looks at Biden through shit-colored glasses. As if the Putin crotch-grabbing, insurrection leading ex-president is a person to be respected.
I look at what is happening now around the world and see history repeating. Russia moves into Ukraine saying the Ukrainian people are not a separate country. In Asia, the most powerful country is threatening to take over Taiwan saying Taiwan is theirs.
I can’t believe I haven’t heard anyone saying this is a long delayed echo of what happened nearly 90 years ago. Germany withdrew from the League of Nations and then got Saarland to unite with Germany. Then they reoccupied the Rhineland in violation of the Treaty of Versaille and then took Austria and Czechoslovakia. It wasn’t until he took Poland that Europe responded. I see Putin repeating this by taking Georgia, Crimea and now two more pieces of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, in Asia the most powerful Asian nation is mirroring what Russia is doing today and what Japan did while Hitler was doing his thing in Europe.
“I can’t believe I haven’t heard anyone saying this is a long delayed echo of what happened nearly 90 years ago.”
Well, you got your wish; I heard Zelenskyy say it late last night. I think it’s time to impose truly severe sanctions, say forbid all flights of civilian aircraft into or out of Russia. I’m only sorry we don’t have a cyber team capable of turning off the lights throughout Russia. But I do think it’s time to apply sanctions to all those who support Putin, starting with Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo and Tucker Carlson — anyone Russian TV is rebroadcasting as supporting them.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3804276-canada-algernon-pharmaceuticals-files-to-uplist-to-nasdaq
I can’t believe it! Putin invades Ukraine, starting the biggest war in Europe in over 75 years; the market, which started out more than 2.5% negative, reverses and goes positive, by as much as 3.3% on the Nasdaq; and nobody has posted a word here since I said something an hour before market open.
NATO members
Ukraine is the money laundering capitol of the world.
The new Radar Report for 2.24.22 (every day this week is a palindrome!) is posted.