Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Radar Report – 11.21.19

Nov 19

Dear New World Investor: On May 14, 2018, the Supreme Court struck down a 1992 Federal law that effectively banned state-authorized sports gambling, opening the door to legalizing the estimated $150 billion in illegal wagers on professional and amateur sports that Americans make every year. Nevada has had legal sports gambling for years, but sensing a new source of tax revenue and an opportunity to deprive criminals of a major source of income, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Mississippi, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia have legalized sports betting so far. Of course, legalizing it and actually putting in the...

Oct 17

Dear New World Investor: The S&P 500 ended the week and the quarter with its fourth positive day in a row and at a new record high. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 also finished at records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average looks like it will join them on Monday. The fractal dimension is fully recharged, so it is possible that another upleg is beginning. But I really, really doubt it.The VIX Fear & Greed Index closed Friday at 9.51, matching its mid-July low. As I’ve marked on the graphic, it is very hard for the S&P to go up when...

Mar 17

Dear New World Investor: A subscriber who extended her subscription at the special $245 rate last year asked if she could still extend for a second year at the $195 rate. So I set up a PayPal button to do that, and you don’t need a PayPal account to use it. To extend for two years, just go through the process twice. For those who already extended for a year Extend for another year : $195.00 USD – yearly If you didn’t extend last year, I’ve also reopened that offer for a limited time – CLICK HERE. * * *...

Sep 16

The S&P 500 looks like it is finally ready to break out to new highs over 2200. As the underinvested and bearish hedge fund managers get back from the Hamptons, the high fractal dimension on the daily chart can power a move that will put tremendous pressure on them. I expect this upswing will last to the September 21 turn date, although I’d rather see a decline into that date to set up a surprise October rally. Gold bounced off $1,306 and touched its 38.2% retracement level on Friday. The fractal dimension dropped through 55 on Thursday and the trend...

Market Outlook – 7.18.16

Jul 16

Although the S&P 500 futures are up five points in overnight trading as I write, I’m expecting a consolidation week to build up the energy for the next leg up. That could mean sideways action just under the highs, but it is more likely to mean a drop back to the 2116 breakout level to flush out some of the hot money and keep the bears from realizing they’ve made a mistake. The subsequent rally is likely to last into September. Gold has calmed down with the news that the coup in Turkey failed. I still think it has a...

Mar 16

The Half-Price Annual Subscription Offer Is Closing For Good In A Couple Of Days Please click HERE to take advantage of it. There is enough fractal energy to keep the S&P 500 in the 2050-2060 range for the next six trading days to the March 29 turn date, but probably not enough to push much higher. After March 28 we’ll most likely see a 38.2% retracement of about 100 points to the 1950 area to consolidate this upturn. That would set up the big upswing in May and June. One reason to expect some weakness in stocks is that the...

Dec 14

As we go into the slow holiday week, the S&P 500 will probably hang around current levels. The daily fractal dimension is up to 48 and climbing as the market consolidates. The short-term is up to 60, and can start a brief downtrend at any time. Gold also is marking time at the 38.2$ retracement level around $1,193. Bitcoin has most likely put in its Month #45 low, and should start to rise at an accelerating rate. I don’t know what the specific catalyst will be, but the Month #45 low is when the exponential rise to Month #64...

Feb 14

The march towards a double top near 1850 on the S&P 500 continues, and may have achieved its objective on Friday at 1838: (Thursday’s chart) I expect the advance to stall out now, and retreat to the 38.2% level that is now at 1801. There is a small chance the market topped on Friday, and we’ll know that if 1801 is broken decisively. It’s far more likely that the test of 1801 will be successful, and then we’ll get the final move up towards 1850 around the end of February. The gold train has left the station, with the current...

Sep 13

The S&P 500 continues to churn near its highs in the 1690-1700 range. Although the chracter of the market changed dramatically after the July 19 top date, marking an end to the 2013 upturn, the big downturn has not yet shown itself. We bonked against the highs for almost a month after July 19, and the dowturn to the 1630 area was quickly reversed. I know this is furstrating behavior, but the big drop usually comes out of nowhere after a period of churning. There are plenty of news events coming that could spark the drop – the Fed, Syria,...

Sep 13

Well, I certainly didn’t expect that from the gold market. Tuesday looked like the clear beginning of a push up to $1,440, but almost all of that advance was given back on Wednesday. The price of gold is being whipped around by the U.S. potential action in Syria. Unless gold pretty quickly whipsaws again to the upside, it is possible we’ll first test the lower boundary of the expected trading range at $1,344. I still think $1,444 is in the cards, but I doubt we can get there by September 10. It could take to the end of September to...

Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Radar Report – 11.21.19

Market Outlook – 10.2.17

Radar Report – 3.16.17

Market Outlook – 9.5.16

Market Outlook – 7.18.16

Market Outlook – 3.21.16

New Board for Comments – 12.22.14

Flash Alert – S&P 500 and Gold – 2.15.14

New Board for Comments – 9.15.13

Another New Board for Comments – 9.4.13

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