New World Investor – 6.27.24

Michael Murphy
Uncategorized
2024-06-27
27
Jun 24

Dear New World Investor:

We get the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) report tomorrow morning. Rent is only 19% of the PCE compared to 33% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Fed pays close attention to the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy price changes. The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) indices for Current Labor Costs and Future Hiring lead the core PCE and are pointing to disinflation.


Click for larger graphic h/t @DiMartinoBooth

The economy is weakening fast as consumers run out of savings and available credit. US manufacturing already is in a recession. Now the services sector is following. Regional service sector activity month to date in June showed declines in four out of five regions: the Federal Reserve Banks of New York (-4.7, purple line), Philadelphia (+2.9, light green line), Richmond (-11.0, light blue line), Chicago (-16.7, yellow line) and Dallas (-4.1, lilac line) flagged a contraction in activity. That the broad-based weakness has persisted for nearly two years warns of a deep impairment in service sector revenues.


Click for larger graphic h/t @DiMartinoBooth

Market Outlook

The S&P 500 added 1.8% since last Thursday and has notched 31 record closes this year. The Index is up 14.9% year-to-date. The S&P 500 is market capitalization-weighted and has outpaced an equal-weighted S&P Index by quite a margin in recent years due to the Magnificent 7/Big Tech/AI boom. This chart suggests it could surprise the most by continuing to outperform for some time – and possibly by much more.

Click for larger graphic h/t Paulsen Perspectives

Is the market overpriced? The price to free cash flow multiple today is two standard deviations lower than in the late ’90s. The dotcom bubble was driven by unprofitable companies. Today’s tech stalwarts are gushing cash.

Click for larger graphic h/t @SamRo

The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% and is up 19.0% for the year. The SPDR S&P Biotech Exchange-Traded Fund (XBI) climbed 3.4% as biotech caught a little bid. It is up 4.0% year-to-date. The small-cap Russell 2000 ticked up 1.0% and is (barely) back in the black in 2024, up 0.6%.

The fractal dimension continues to set records in this relentless uptrend. Benoit Mandelbrot, the IBM Fellow, father of fractals, and author of my bibles in this area, Fractals in Finance and The (Mis)behavior of Markets, must be spinning in his grave. This shouldn’t happen.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
SCYX – ScyNexis – Data releases and resolution of the manufacturing problem
TGTX TG Therapeutics – Rapid recovery from overdone pullback
AAPL Apple – September AI iPhone 16 introduction
EQT EQT –natural gas price rebound
USL United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP – crude should rise quickly
FCX Freeport McMoRan – copper shortage

Long-Term – alphabetical order
ABCL AbCelllera – Will become a huge pharma royalty company
EQT EQT – largest US natural gas company
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is headed for $100,000
META Meta – a (the?) leader in the metaverse
PLTR Palantir – a (the?) leader in AI applications software
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
SCYX ScyNexis –First new antifungal in 20 years
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model slid another 0.1 percentage point this morning to an even +3.0% due to the housing starts report. That’s still a full percentage point above the Blue Chip economists at +2.0%. On July 25, I expect a first estimate around +2.7%.

Click for larger graphic

It’s not just the US. Everyone is guilty of deficit spending:

Click for larger graphic h/t @UrbanKaoboy

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, June 28
Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – 8:30am – The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator

Wednesday, July 3
Next New World Investor will be posted a day early

Thursday, July 4
Happy 248th Birthday, USA!
(If you are 83, you are 1/3 as old as the entire country.)

Click for larger graphic

Friday, July 5
June payrolls – 8:30am

Big Tech: The Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $214.10) rose as Evercore ISI raised its target price from $220 to $250 and increased its iPhone revenue estimate for the September 2025 fiscal year from $207 billion to $213 billion. For the full 2025 year they expect total revenue to be $418 billion with $7.55 earnings per share. The Wall Street consensus expects $412.89 billion and $7.27.

Evercore wrote: “Apple stock has seen a nice increase since WWDC, but we still think there is more room to run as we see potential for material upside to current iPhone revenue expectations. Apple’s decision to limit Apple Intelligence features to the iPhone 15 Pro or the upcoming iPhone 16 lineup should result in strong demand for the new phones. If Apple can deliver on the features demonstrated at WWDC, we think consumers will find Apple Intelligence compelling enough to shorten the replacement cycle and induce iPhone 13/14 Pro and iPhone 15 owners to upgrade more quickly than they otherwise would.” They said that even a one-month reduction in the replacement cycle could add $14 billion in revenue.

BofA, which has a Buy rating on Apple with a $230 target, followed up on the impact of AI on Services: “Apple Intelligence will drive improved Services growth. Apple’s recent announcement to integrate AI into its operating systems and give third party developers deep access to features, including Siri, should drive significant innovation from developers. We view conversational AI with context and privacy as key to monetization of the installed base of Apple devices over time with increased productivity, higher priced Apps, increased subscriptions, and payments from partners.”

They expect Apple to create its own portfolio of apps with Apple Intelligence and offer deeper integration with Siri and apps on VisionOS. The installed base will continue to grow and more users will purchase more of Apple’s services, such as iCloud, Apple Care, Music, TV+ and more.

Apple generated $24.86 billion in services revenue in fiscal 2023. BofA expects services revenue to rise 14% year-over-year in fiscal 2024 to $31.5 billion, followed by $34.5 billion in fiscal 2025 and $37.3 billion in fiscal 2026.

Rosenblatt Securities raised their rating from Neutral to Buy and raised their target price from $196 (oops) to $260. They cited Apple’s emphasis on privacy surrounding its AI initiatives (such as Privacy Cloud Compute) and think the company could see an increase in market share as a result. They made a good point: Apple’s approach to AI (including its partnership with OpenAI and others down the line) suggests that it will be immune to the rapid increases in cost that the hyperscalers have incurred, while still benefiting at the same time. AAPL is a Buy under $175 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Corning (GLW – $38.59) declared a 28¢ dividend, giving you a 2.9% yield while you wait for the earnings acceleration that will hit as their markets recover. GLW is a Buy under $33 for the 5G cellular buildout, followed by the smartphone upgrade to use 5G services. My target is $60 in 2025 .

Meta Platforms (META – $519.56) announced the “fediverse,” a global, open network of interconnected, but still independent social media servers, each with its own users, content and rules. Servers share information with each other to enable people to connect and discover new things across the fediverse. The fediverse allows users to communicate across different servers, like posting on Threads and having people see the post on Tumblr or Flipboard. Right now, most social networks don’t work that way. People on Reddit can’t follow people on Pinterest, for example. The fediverse changes that, enabling people to follow one another and communicate across different servers. Threads is Meta’s first app built to be compatible with the fediverse. META is a Buy under $345 for a $400 target in 2024.

Palantir (PLTR – $25.22) was selected by the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) to support the agency’s mission to accelerate better health outcomes. Palantir’s AIP and Foundry software will help the agency drive key workflows by providing a data strategy and infrastructure that will underpin business operations and enable continuous improvement. The contract is worth $19 million over 2 years.

Fujitsu is one of the world’s leading IT service providers and the largest in Japan. They have been a Palantir customer since 2020, using Palantir Foundry to transform their business operations. With over 15,000 Foundry users and more than 100 Foundry Engineers, Fujitsu has connected over 85% of its systems, creating over 50 operational applications.

They transformed their hardware business, which historically suffered from excessive inventory and stock-outs due to siloed systems and data. By combining Foundry’s data integration capabilities with Fujitsu’s Machine Learning AI, they achieved an annual cost reduction of over $9 million in just three months. Fujitsu has also templated these successful internal use cases, enabling rapid delivery of similar business impact to their customers.

PLTR indirectly partnered with the Mayo Clinic, a top-ranked US hospital. Mayo will integrate Surgence into its digital supply chain. Surgence is Concordance Healthcare Solutions’ operating system for the healthcare supply chain based on Palantir software. This is another example of a Palantir customer building a product on Palantir’s software to sell to its own customers, similar to how Airbus sells Skywise maintenance services to its clients. PLTR is a Buy under $22 for a $100+ target.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $31.67) held their annual meeting (VIDEO HERE). CEO and founder Masayoshi Son said he regrets selling Nvidia shares five years ago, before it rode the artificial intelligence wave to become one of the world’s most valuable companies. The company’s Vision Fund sold its entire 4.9% stake in Nvidia that cost $700 million in early 2019, recording a big win of $3.3 billion. Son said: “I had to tearfully sell the shares. It’s frustrating to remember the ones I missed. The fish that got away was big.” If Vision Fund held on to its stake, it would be worth around $160 billion today.

Son said he now wants to help usher in Artificial Superintelligence, which would be 10,000 times smarter than human intelligence. He said: “SoftBank has done many things until now that have all been a warm-up for my great dream to realize artificial superintelligence.”

Never bet against Masa! SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Small Tech

Enovix (ENVX – $15.69) jumped after they signed an agreement with “a leading California-based technology company” – probably Meta – to provide silicon batteries and packs for a mixed reality headset. Enovix gets an immediate one-time payment for tooling to support battery pack dimensions followed by payments for the delivery of both sample and production quantities. Global shipments of virtual reality and augmented reality headsets are forecast to grow from just under 10 million units in 2024 to just over 35 million units in 2028, according to market researcher IDC.

Then Enovix announced the even more important signing of a Memorandum Of Understanding with Elentec, a South Korean consumer electronics battery pack manufacturer that is a supplier to Samsung and many of the world’s largest OEMs, supplying battery packs for smartphones, IoT devices, tablets, laptops, industrial and medical equipment. Enovix said: “The MOU allows Enovix to fast track and utilize Elentec’s battery pack design and high-volume manufacturing capability, while setting up the framework for definitive long-term supply and/or joint manufacturing agreements leveraging Elentec’s footprint. Contingent on continued success in both technical and business negotiations, the companies intend to enter a strategic partnership, and collaborate in the incorporation and custom development of Enovix battery cells into multiple battery packs for consumer, industrial, and military applications to support both Enovix and Elentec’s key customers.”

Canaccord Genuity published a good research note yesterday:


Click for larger graphic

ENVX is still under my $20 Buy limit for a 4-year hold to $100+ as their BrakeFlow lithium-ion battery takes market share.
Primary Risk: A new competitor invents a better battery.

QuickLogic (QUIK – $10.23) announced the official launch of Piccolo AI, SensiML’s open-source AutoML solution for IoT edge AI, designed to streamline the creation of intelligent sensor algorithms at the edge. It includes a suite of resources to support the involvement of the broader developer community. The heart of the initiative, a GitHub repository at github.com/sensiml/piccolo, offers free access to the AutoML code base. Users can not only utilize cutting-edge technology for their own projects but also contribute to the continuous improvement and innovation of the solution, advancing the capabilities of edge AI at no cost to QuickLogic. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their earnings repeatedly surprise Wall Street.
Primary Risk: Customers’ product introductions and associated royalties are unpredictable.

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.86) successfully launched its 50th Electron mission, deploying satellites for Kinéis, a French Internet-of-Things (IoT) company. Electron reached the milestone of 50 launches faster than any commercially developed rocket in history. The first launch was in 2017 and Rocket Lab has now deployed 190 satellites for a diverse range of customers and missions, including NASA missions to the Moon, the National Reconnaissance Office and Space Force missions supporting national security and defense, scientific research to combat climate change, and commercial constellations providing vital data and services to millions of people on Earth. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.

Velo3D (VLD – $3.46) sold a third Sapphire printer to Mears Machine. This one was an XC configured to produce parts in Constellium’s Aheadd CP1 aluminum alloy. Compared to other aluminum alloys used in additive manufacturing (like those that incorporate magnesium and silicon), printing parts in Aheadd CP1 greatly reduces post-printing heat treatment requirements. In addition, the one-step heat treatment results in parts with an almost-pure aluminum matrix, which provides high electrical and thermal conductivity. Printed parts also have better weldability and brazing properties due to the lack of magnesium and silicon. Velo3D said they see significant opportunities for parts in Aheadd CP1, including many that support critical defense-related programs that the company has initiated for the aluminum alloy.

Last week I reported that the Velo Board appointed Brad Kreger as permanent CEO. He is the one who set the sky-high revenue goal for 2024. If the June quarter was going badly, I doubt they would have made the unnecessary appointment right before he whiffed the quarter. Could happen, of course, but it seems unlikely. VLD is a Buy up to $10 for my $100 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.

Biotech MegaShift

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these speculative biotechs might be a good way to start. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a good strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $0.99) appointed Erik Ostrowski as Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Chief Business Officer. He’s a heavyweight – most recently as President, Interim CEO, and CFO of Avrobio during its merger with Tectonic Therapeutic. Prior to that he was CFO of Summit Therapeutics, where he led its initial public offering. He also spent over ten years in investment banking at Leerink Partners and Robertson Stephens. He could have gone to work anywhere and he chose Akebia. That’s a good sign. Buy AKBA up to $2 for the vadadustat launches in the EU, UK, and (after TDAPA approval in December) the US.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat doesn’t sell in the US.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next approval: TDAPA January
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Compass Pathways (CMPS – $5.99) still is depressed by the FDA Advisory Committee’s June 4 negative vote on Lykos Therapeutics’ MDMA therapy for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Panelists voted almost unanimously against the drug, expressing deep concern about the safety of MDMA (heard of ecstasy, guys?) and the way Lykos conducted its clinical trials (that’s valid). Lykos’ program also was marred by allegations of ethics violations, including sexual misconduct and data suppression. The FDA is sure to turn it down on August 11, which may cause more pressure on CMPS.

The main problem with psychedelic drug trials is “functional unblinding” — when study participants deduce what therapy they’ve been given. That might sway the results to be more positive than they actually were. Unlike most experimental drugs, psychedelic drugs elicits effects like sensory changes and altered cognition that are unmistakable. That bias has been a longstanding issue in psychedelic drug development — one the FDA last year flagged as a core problem.

Several panelists highlighted this issue in making their votes. One said the results are largely “meaningless” without somehow accounting for participants’ expectation bias. It’s frustrating that the Adcom didn’t provide more concrete steps to address it, especially since more companies are now investing in psychedelics and planning trials. I am sure Compass has discussed this issue with the FDA, but they’ve never said how they are coping with it. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2026
   Probable time of next financing: Late 2025

Medicenna (MDNAF – $1.46) said that the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has approved their clinical trial application to expand their Phase 1/2 ABILITY-1 trial of MDNA11 either alone or in combination with Keytruda to the EU. The trial is currently enrolling patients with advanced solid tumors at clinical trial sites in the US, Canada, Australia, and Korea. Buy MDNAF under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: 2025

ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.03) should deliver all their completed clinical trial results to GSK by Sunday. I expect an announcement about the new manufacturing partner any day. Buy SCYX under $2.50 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: 2024
   Probable time of next financing: Never

Gold ($2,339.10) had a flattish week as it consolidates above $2,300. This is a healthy precursor to the next leg up. The fractal dimension is making good progress towards complete consolidation at the 55 level.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $61,422.41) reversed last week’s gains, causing over $150 million in bullish bets to be liquidated over the weekend. The drop was attributed to large sales from bitcoin miners, the German government moving a significant amount of BTC to exchanges, and the broader market sentiment influenced by these movements. That put bitcoin just below the massive $60,000 level, and it bounced. The big long-term trend comes in here. We are well below the 100-day moving average and now negatively sloping, but still above the 200-day moving average around $58,000.

Click for larger graphic h/t The Market Ear

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT- $34.98) remains the cheapest and easiest way to buy bitcoin. IBIT is a Buy for the 2028, 2032, and 2036 halvings.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Commodities

Oil – $81.87

Oil has found an $80+ trading range for now. US oil demand is strong.

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

But in order to get oil over $85, inventories need to draw down:

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

The Saudis are cutting back hard:

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

And the rest of OPEC+ finally is joining them:

Click for larger graphic h/t @HFI_Research

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $71.02) are a Buy under $70 for a $200+ target. Only buy futures for all cash; do not use margin.

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $40.69) is a Buy under $40 for a $100+ target.

Vermilion Energy (VET – $11.20) is a Buy under $11 for a target price of $24 or more.
Primary Risk:Oil prices fall.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.16) is capped as the uranium spot price has moved into a (healthy) correction in this bull market cycle, stabilizing at $85 to $95 a pound. Uranium miners are stronger as they catch up to the past gains in the spot price.

Kuppy did a webinar on Going Nuclear: Why Investors Should Be Paying Attention to Uranium. There was nothing new, but he laid out the case very clearly. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $48.32) declared a 15¢ quarterly dividend, consisting of a base dividend of 7.5¢ a share and a variable dividend of another 7.5¢ a share. As copper prices rise, I expect the variable dividend to increase rapidly. FCX is a buy under $44 for a $65 target within two years.
Primary Risk: Copper prices fall.

* * * * *

Delibes: Lakmé – Duo des fleurs (Flower Duet), Sabine Devieilhe & Marianne Crebassa

* * * * *

* * * * *

Your reading Ray Dalio Editor,
(Pick A Side And Fight For It, Keep Your Head Down, Or Flee)

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Priced 6/27/24. Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $214.10) – Buy under $175 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $38.59) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $68.83) – Buy under $80, target price $120
  Meta (META – $519.56) – Buy under $345, target price $400
  Palantir (PLTR – $25.22) – Buy under $22, target price $100+
  PayPal (PYPL – $58.37) – Buy under $68, target price $136
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $31.67) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Small Tech
  Enovix (ENVX – $15.69) – Buy under $20; 4-year hold to $100+
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $56.27) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $7.45) – Buy under $14; 3- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $22.76) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $10.23) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.86) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $3.46) – Buy under $10, target price $100

$20-for-$1 Biotech
  AbCellera Biologics (ABCL – $2.88) – Buy under $6, target $30+
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.99) – Buy under $2, target $20
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $5.99) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Editas Medicines (EDIT – $4.74) – Buy under $6 for a double in 12 months and a long-term hold to much higher prices
  Inovio (INO – $7.76) – Buy under $14, hold a long time
  Medicenna (MDNAF – $1.46) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.03) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $17.95) – Buy under $12 for buyout at $30+

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($415,400) – Hold
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($29.28) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $26.84) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $30.90) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $22.00) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $31.47) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $5.59) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $5.95) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.42) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.39) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $41.56) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $61,422.41) – Buy
  iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT – $34.98) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $3,439.30) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $32.15) – Buy

Commodities
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $71.02) – Buy under $70; $200+ target
  United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL – $40.69) – Buy under $40; $100+ target
  Vermilion Energy (VET – $11.20) – Buy under $11; $24 target
  EQT (EQT – $37.28) – Buy under $35; $70 first target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.16) – Buy under $8; $30 target
  Freeport McMoRan (FCX – $48.32) – Buy under $44; $65 target within two years

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Thank you!

TO M. MURPHY
I don’t understand your META targets. The current value is $520 and you have a target of $400. Should we sell it now?

VLD – As expected Velo didn’t have the funds to make their July 1st note payment so with a third amendment to the notes they bought themselves additional time at the cost of 1.65 million warrants, or roughly 20% dilution to the currently outstanding shares. They can now pay that $10.5 million July payment in 10 monthly payments starting in August, likely through ATM sales (more dilution).

however, this third amendment didn’t address their upcoming $10.5 million note payments due October 1st & January 1st so time will tell as to how they fund/deal with those when the time comes.

I’ll take more dilution of this order of magnitude over BK from cash depletion any day. If they don’t meet revenue forecasts, they’ll do the same for the Oct 1 and Jan 1 payments. Buying time is VERY important. It enables cash flow breakeven to remain on track. The amount of time bought is more than the lag time between bookings and revenue. This warrant issue is an excellent strategy.

Last edited 1 year ago by JGMD

Don’t know if anyone else recieved a notice about being a shareholder in nvta that I have the right to vote on the current management and there compensation,what’s that some kind of April fools joke,ain’t that about a bitch they way they threw the bankruptcy at us without a joke,my vote would be that the whole team sure be thrown under the bus