Dear New World Investor:

And that is why they say: “They don’t ring a bell at the bottom.” A 1,200-point increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 5.54% on the S&P 500 Index, and up over 7% on the Nasdaq Composite – now that’s a good day.

The October Consumer Price Index increased 7.7% over last year and 0.4% from September, both slightly below the 7.9% and 0.5% consensus estimates. Used car and truck prices are collapsing, while medical care, apparel, and airfares all declined over the month. Shelter, a lagging indicator (and the Fed knows it), is nearly one-third of the CPI. It had its largest month-on-month increase — 0.8% — since August 1990, while rising 6.9% from a year ago and accounting for over half of the monthly all-items increase.

Prices on gasoline and food continued to rise, but the core CPI that takes out the volatile food and energy components rose 6.3% year-over-year and – crucially – just 0.3% over September. Expectations called for a 6.5% annual increase and 0.5% monthly increase. The Fed looks at the month-over-month core rate and may only raise half a percentage point (50 basis points) at their December 14 meeting.

After the strongish employment report last Friday, Wall Street scrambled to raise their forecast of the terminal Fed funds rate to 5.0% to 5.5%, up from today’s 4.0%. But right after the inflation report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker floated a trial balloon, saying: “I am in the camp of wanting to get to what would clearly be a restrictive stance, somewhere north of four-ish, you know, 4.5%, and then I would be okay with taking a brief pause, seeing how things are moving. And then if we have to, we can continue to tighten.”

There is an increased recognition that the Fed pivot will look like the graphic I posted last week:

Click for larger graphic

The S&P 500 added 6.4% since last Thursday. The Index is down 17.0% year-to-date, but it’s Price/Earnings ratio is down 40%. The Nasdaq Composite soared 7.5%, including a whopping 7.4% today. It is down 29.0% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 climbed 4.9% and is down 16.8% in 2022.

The median bear market lasts just seven months and the average bear market lasts 11 months. The current bear market is 10.25 months. Historically, the market performed better in the six months following the midterm elections than in the six months leading up to them. The year after the midterms has the highest equity returns of the Presidential Cycle. Going back to 1951, a Democratic president with a Republican or split Congress, the two most likely cases this election, has seen an average S&P 500 Index return of over 17% versus an overall average of just over 12%.

The fractal dimension is very consolidated and able to support a large move in either direction. The normal expectation is a resumption of the prior move – in this case, down – but seasonality argues for a blow-your-socks-off Santa Claus rally.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
INO Inovio – VGX-3100 HPV Phase 3 results by yearend
TGTX TG Therapeutics – FDA approval on December 28
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US

Economy

Last Friday’s October non-farm payrolls report showed a stronger-than-expected 261,000 gain, above the 195,000 expected but down from September’s upward-revised 319,000. But a a puzzling divergence has opened between the Household and Establishment surveys. Since March, the Household survey has been stagnant while the Establishment survey has been rising every single month. In addition to that, full-time jobs were plunging while part-time jobs were soaring.

The Establishment survey is rising when virtually every major tech company is announcing mass layoffs. Really? The gap between the Household and Establishment surveys just increased by a whopping 589,000, the most since June’s 608,000, as a result of the 261,000 increase in the Household survey offset by a perplexing 382,000 plunge in the number of people actually employed as tracked by Establishment survey.

Since March, the Household survey has shown a net gain of 150,000 jobs, while the Establishment survey has shown a gain of 2,452,000 jobs, a difference of 2,302,000 jobs. I hope those jobs really exist and were not just plugged in for the midterm elections. For sure, one of those two surveys is really wrong. I expect dramatically worse Establishment survey payroll reports starting on December 2.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for December quarter real GDP growth increased from 3.6% to 4.0% due to the strong employment and wholesale trade reports. The Blue Chip consensus is way low at +0.4%.

Click for larger graphic

Dollar

It looks like the dollar has peaked. It was overbought and the jobs report triggered a big sell-off last Friday. The European Central Bank has just started raising rates, which will support the euro. The euro is almost 60% of the foreign exchange basket. And seasonally, the dollar has a strong negative bias at the end of the year.

Click for larger graphic

A weaker dollar is good news for stocks, gold, and bitcoin.

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Friday, November 11
Thank You, Veterans

via GIPHY

SFTBY – Softbank – 3:30am – Earnings conference call
MDNA – Medicenna – 9:00am – Second poster presentation at Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer annual meeting

Saturday, November 12
AG – First Majestic – Unspec. – Arcadia Economics Silver Fest III

Tuesday, November 15
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – Unspec. – MJBizCon
FSLY – Fastly – 4:20pm – RBC Capital Markets Global Technology, Internet, Media, and Telecommunications Conference
QUIK – QuickLogic – 5:30pm – Earnings conference call

Wednesday, November 16
QUIK – QuickLogic – Unspec. – Roth Technology Event
RKLB – Rocket Lab – Unspec. – Roth Technology Event
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – Unspec. – CannaVest

Thursday, November 17
QUIK – QuickLogic – Unspec. – Craig-Hallum Alpha Select Conference

The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.

The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.40) reported a September quarter loss of $24.7 million or 45¢ a share, in line with the consensus estimate. They dosed the first sickle cell patient in their nula-cell (formerly GPH-101) Phase 1/2 trial and will report initial clinical proof-of-concept data in mid-2023.

Two abstracts were accepted for the American Society of Hematology (ASH) annual meeting on December 10-13.

They finished the quarter with $305.1 million in cash, enough to carry them for two years into the December 2024 quarter. GRPH is a Buy under $9 for a $50 target in 2023, $100 in 2025, and then higher.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Mid-2024

Inovio (INO – $2.38) reported a September quarter loss of $37.8 million or 15¢ per share, much better than the 30¢ expected. On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said the Phase 2 efficacy data and safety follow-up readout for VGX-3100 in cervical high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) patients is on track for late December/early March quarter.

They have a robust pipeline:

Click for larger graphic

Inovio’s technology works very well on infectious diseases, and they’ve got other people paying for the trials.

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In addition to the VGX-3100 data, in the first half of next year they’ll report data from the second cohort of the INO-3107 Phase 1/2 trial. In the second half, they’ll report the INO-4500 Lassa Phase 1b data, the INO-4700 MERS Phase 2 data, and the INO-4201 Ebola Phase 1b booster data.

They finished the quarter with $281.9 million in cash and raised their cash runway to carry them through 2024 into the March quarter of 2025. Wall Street liked it and marked the stock up 12%. INO is a Buy under $7 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: Mid-2024

Invitae (NVTA – $3.11) reported September quarter revenues up 16.7% from last year to $133.54 million, just above the $131.38 million consensus estimate. They had a pro forma loss of $100.8 million or a 42¢ per share, compared to a net loss of $175.9 million or 81¢ last year.

On the conference call (ZOOM HERE and SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE or HERE), management said they still expect low double-digit growth in revenues for the full year. They are focused on areas of strength:

Click for larger graphic

In spite of the budget cutbacks, all the major metrics continue to grow:

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They had $596 million in cash as of quarter-end. They reduced their full-year 2022 cash burn guidance to $585 million to $625 million, an improvement from their previous guidance of $600 million to $650 million.

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Wall Street ran the stock up to $3.03 at yesterday’s high, but it couldn’t hold there. Buy NVTA under $10 for a first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
   Clinical stage of lead product: NM
   Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
   Probable time of next financing: Not needed

Medicenna (MDNA – $0.62) reported a September second-quarter loss of C$0.9 million or a penny a share, much better than the six-cent loss expected. That included a C$1.9 million gain on their US dollar holdings. They ended the quarter with C$40.0 million, enough to complete the Phase ½ trial of MDNA11 and carry them into the June 2024 quarter.

On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said five of fourteen (36%) evaluable patients have achieved tumor control (partial response or stable disease) in the ABILITY trial’s first four dose escalation cohorts. These are patients out of treatment options. They previously failed up to four lines of systemic therapy prior to enrolling in the trial, including eleven (79%) who relapsed on, could not tolerate, or did not respond to at least one prior immunotherapy with a checkpoint inhibitor.

Successes include a confirmed partial response in a fourth-line metastatic pancreatic cancer patient who previously failed chemo and checkpoint inhibitor therapies. Another was a third-line metastatic melanoma patient that achieved stable disease with a low dose and has maintained stable disease for more than a year while escalating to a higher dose. There have been no dose-limiting toxicities, dose interruptions, dose de-escalations, or treatment discontinuations due to safety issues.

Medicenna has several upcoming milestones. They are presenting new safety, pharmacokinetic, and pharmacodynamic data next week at the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer annual meeting. Then we’ll get updated anti-tumor activity data from the escalation cohorts in the March quarter. In mid-2023 we’ll see the early anti-tumor activity data from the single agent expansion phase are expected in mid-2023. Early anti-tumor activity data from the combination arm are expected at the end of 2023.

Click for larger graphic

The company now has 50 issued patents and another 62 patent applications filed. Buy MDNA under $3 for a first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: March 2024

ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.91) reported a September quarter loss of $29.6 million or 62¢ a share. Brexafemme prescriptions grew 13% sequentially from the June quarter to $1.6 million – a 76% annual rate. Insurance coverage increased to 130 million, or 70% of commercially insured lives. I think this a very salable or licensable asset.

On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said: “…we are actively pursuing suitable commercialization partners for Brexafemme in the US for vulvovaginal candidiasis (VVC) and for ibrexafungerp outside of the US. And we are making good progress on this front. Stay tuned.”

The supplemental NDA filing for recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (yeast infections) is on track for an FDA decision date on November 30. I expect an easy approval for this second indication. Brexa will be the first and only therapy approved for both the treatment of VVC and the prevention of recurrent VVC. This second indication makes Brexa extremely attractive to a commercialization partner.

The stock fell 20% yesterday because earnings missed the consensus by 12¢, but the real story here is the November 30 approval, out-licensing Brexa, and getting approval to treat severe hospital-based infections. The company had $96.1 million in cash at the end of the quarter, enough to take them through 2023 into the June 2024 quarter. Buy SCYX under $2 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: November 30, 2022
   Probable time of next financing: second half of 2023 or never

Biotech MegaShift

Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA- $0.27) reported September quarter revenues up just 0.5% from last year to $49.0 million, ahead of the $47.17 million consensus estimate. Auryxia’s quarterly net product revenue was $42.2 million, an increase of 14.9% from last year. The loss per share of 28¢ was twice as bad as the expected 14¢ loss.

On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), they reaffirmed 2022 Auryxia net product revenue guidance of $170 million to $175 million. In October, they submitted a Formal Dispute Resolution Request with the FDA regarding the vadadustat Complete Response Letter. Based on the typical FDRR process, Akebia expects to receive a response to its submission by the end of 2022. It’s a longshot, but they have a real chance to win.

They are expecting European approval for vadadustat in the March quarter, after which they will look for a partner to sell it. They finished the September quarter with $144.8 million, enough to carry them for a year. AKBA is a Hold for the FDA meeting on vadadustat.
Primary Risk: Vadadustat not approved.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Vadadustat NDA filed
   Probable time of next FDA approval: Unknown
   Probable time of next financing: Unknown

TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $8.43) jumped 62.8% today after their earnings conference call in which they said they’ve started labeling discussions with the FDA ahead of the December 28 PDUFA date for ublituximab for multiple sclerosis. As I’ve been saying for over six years, this is going to get approved. This is why TGTX has been and still is a short-term Top Buy.

They reported a September quarter loss of $35.8 million or 26¢ per share, beating the 33¢ loss expectation. On the conference call (AUDIO HERE), CEO Michael Weiss said: “…with less than two months to the target PDUFA action date of Dec. 28, 2022, we can confirm that we have completed the late cycle meeting and labeling discussions have recently commenced.”

TG had $197.7 million in cash at the end of the quarter, more than enough to carry them through 2023, including the MS launch. Buy TGTX under $7 for a target price in a buyout of $25 or more after the MS drug is approved.
Primary Risk: FDA turns the MS drug down.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Filed for approval.
   Probable time of next FDA approval: September 28, 2022
   Probable time of next financing: March 2023 quarter

Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $146.87) said China’s COVID-19 restrictions have temporarily impacted the primary iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max assembly facility located in Zhengzhou. The company said they continue to see strong demand for both models, but now expect lower shipments than previously anticipated and customers will experience longer wait times to receive their new products. These are the top of the product line and the good news is demand is strong. This is a short-term problem, and the stock jumped 8.2% today – quite a move for a $2 trillion market cap company.

Apple announced a $450 million investment from Apple’s Advanced Manufacturing Fund, mostly to the global satellite service Globalstar. They provides the critical infrastructure that supports Emergency SOS via satellite for iPhone 14 customers in the US and Canada. Connecting directly to a satellite for emergency services messaging when outside of cellular and Wi-Fi coverage is, in my mind, Step 1. I expect Apple to eventually offer a complete service to replace cellular companies. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Gilead Sciences (GILD – $82.60) closed at a 52-week high today. It’s transforming into an oncology company. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $70 for a first target of $100.

Meta Platforms (META – $111.87) is going to cut more than 11,000 jobs, or about 13% of staff, as they restructures to cope with the slumping digital ad market. They are still committed to the metaverse, where I expect them to be one of the very few dominant companies. The stock shot up on the news. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $) completed their stock buyback program, acquiring 63.3 million shares. After tomorrow’s earnings announcement, I expect them to authorize another program. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Other Tech

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $5.31) reported record September quarter revenues up 1092.8% (not a typo) from last year to $63.1 million, ahead of the $60.11 million estimate. They lost seven cents a share compared to a 39¢ loss last year and the eight-cent loss estimate.

On the conference call (AUDIO HERE and SLIDES HERE), management guided December quarter revenues to $51 million to $54 million. A launch customer pushed their project out to 2023, so the guidance was well below the $67.86 million consensus estimate. Even so, the stock jumped 12% today.

They won two contracts valued at $14 million to provide Lightbands for the Space Development Agency’s Tranche 1 Transport Layer satellites. Lightbands are a separation system to attach satellites to rockets and release them in space after reaching orbit. RKLB will supply more than 80 Lightbands to the prime contractor, Lockheed Martin, and an unnamed second customer. Their Lightbands have delivered 100% mission success for more than 100 separations on orbit and were used on NASA’s International Space Station and Space Shuttle missions.

Their 10^th launch of the year – a record – will be their first US launch in December, an Electron launch from Launch Complex 2 in Virginia. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Velo3D (VLD – $2.46) reported September quarter revenues up 119.5% from last year to $19.1 million with a pro forma loss of 12¢ per share.

On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they had strong demand in the quarter, booking $27 million in orders and ending the quarter with a $66 million backlog, up 20% from June 30.

They are getting new customers in Europe and from auto companies:

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Supply chain disruptions caused shipment delays that reduced revenues and might also impact the December quarter. They reduced 2022 revenue guidance to $75 million to $60 million, up about 180% from last year, implying a record $24 million to $29 million for the December quarter.

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They finished the quarter with $112.8 million in cash and said they have a path to profitability with their current capital resources. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,759.00) had a very good week thanks to the weakening dollar, turmoil in cryptocurrencies, and the increased recognition that the Fed pivot will look like the graphic I posted last week. The fractal dimension has moved from ridiculously consolidated to OMG level. Gold is going to go up so fast and so far even the computers won’t believe it.

Miners & Related

Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.85) reported September quarter revenues down 12.0% from last year to $183.0 million, missing the $200.91 estimate. The pro forma loss of 16¢ per share was worse than the six-cent loss estimate due mostly to lower silver prices.

On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said gold and silver production totaled 83,438 ounces and 2.4 million ounces, respectively. Production levels are expected to increase at all four operating locations during the December quarter and finish the year within their full-year guidance range of 315,000 to 353,000 ounces of gold and 9.0 million to 11.0 million ounces of silver.

They ended the quarter with total liquidity of approximately $236 million, including $75 million of cash and $160 million of available capacity under their $390 million revolving credit facility. Counting the sale of the Crown and Sterling holdings to AngloGold, which closed on November 4, total liquidity stood at $386 million.

In addition, Coeur currently holds gold forward hedges in the amount of 54,500 ounces for the remainder of 2022 at an average price of $1,994 per ounce and 112,500 ounces in 2023 at an average price of $1,982 per ounce. The market value of these hedges was approximately $47 million at quarter-end CDE is a Buy under $5 for a $20 target as gold goes higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

First Majestic (AG – $9.56) reported September quarter revenues up 28% to $159.8 million, but mine operating earnings fell 5% to $3.3 million due to low prices. They were able to reduce their cash cost by 5% to $13.34 per silver equivalent ounce and their all-in sustaining cost by 11% to $17.83, but they still had a pro forma loss of $22.6 million or nine cents a share.

CEO Keith Neumeyer said: “The consolidated Mexican operations, which accounted for approximately 83% of our total production, generated healthy margins at a low all-in sustaining cost of $12.29 per silver equivalent ounce, or a 20% decrease from the prior quarter. At Jerritt Canyon, higher costs were the result of lower production due to the planned 14-day maintenance of the roaster. However, we continue to anticipate a strong recovery at Jerritt Canyon in the fourth quarter and into early 2023 as Smith Zone 10, West Generator, and Saval II mines come online in November. The inclusion of these new production areas is expected to increase ore deliveries to 3,000 tonnes per day and substantially reduce costs.”

At the end of the quarter, they had $148.8 million in free cash and restricted cash of $101.2 million, totaling $250.0 million. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.31) reported September quarter revenues up 41.3% from last year to a record C$39.0 million. They had net income of C$31.7 million or XX¢ per share.

On the conference call (ZOOM HERE and SLIDES HERE), management pointed to their steadily growing attributal gold equivalent ounces sold, with revenues increassing even though the price of gold has fallen for two quarters in a row:

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SAND is a Buy under $10 for a $25 target.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Sprott Inc. (SII – $37.82) reported a weak quarter, mostly due to the flat-to-down prices in precious metals. Revenues fell 7.6% from last year to $30.75 million and they only made 12¢ per share, far short of the 36¢ estimate. Assets under management fell $0.9 billion from the end of June to $21.0 billion.

Click for larger graphic

On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they are developing new products in the energy area. Sprott still is mainly a precious metals investment, but the success of the Sprott Uranium Trust (SRUUF) is leading them to diversify a bit into energy. Buy SII under $40 for a $70 target price.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are diversifying assets that offers a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $17,732.26) took a big dive to its lowest price in two years along with all other cryptocurrencies as the third-largest exchange, FTX, ran into a liquidity squeeze. This does not directly impact bitcoin and may wind up being beneficial as some of the sh-tcoins get washed out for good.

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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China.

Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.34) reported September quarter revenues up 27.6% from last year to $61.42 million, primarily due to the addition of operations in Ohio and the beginning of adult-use sales in New Jersey. They lost 20¢ per share. On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said their social equity joint venture in Connecticut was approved for both a Disproportionately Impacted Area Cultivation License and an Adult-Use Cannabis Retailer license.

In the midterms, voters in Maryland and Missouri both legalized recreational marijuana. Arkansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota voted no and opted to keep recreational pot illegal, although it remains allowed in all three of those states for medical use.

The vote on the acquisition by Canopy Growth will be in January. It’s a sure thing, so we’re going to own CGC. I’ve changed the “Primary Risk” to “Constellation Brands does not acquire Canopy Growth.” ACRDF is a buy under $2 for a hold for the Canopy Growth merger and beyond.
Primary Risk: Constellation Brands does not acquire Canopy Growth.

Oil – $86.21

Oil ticked over $90 earlier this week but couldn’t hold there as the Congressional election remains too close to call. The market assumes a Republican majority will put a stop to President Biden’s releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and vice-versa. There was another pre-election release of 3.6 million barrels (~515,000 barrels a day). The SPR is now down to 396.2 million barrels, the lowest since April 1984.

After the end of the releases, investors may realize that the US has not grown a single barrel of production in 2022. Now think of what happens when China opens and the fastest-growing economy in the world is demanding oil again. Suppose you release hundreds of millions of barrels from global petroleum reserves and the end result is nearly $100 oil and energy equities hitting all-time highs. In that case, there’s probably nothing wrong with oil demand. The market is not prepared for the supply cliff in December. Got OIL?

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.

The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.54) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.39) reported September quarter revenues up 306.9% from last year to $2.93 million and a six-cent per share loss.

On the conference call (CORPORATE PRESENTATION HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said that having recently signed three long-term uranium contracts with major US utilities, they are beginning to perform the work needed to restart production at one or more of their mines as soon as 2023. Until they have ramped back up to commercial uranium production, they can use their significant uranium inventories to fulfill the new contract requirements. They bought an additional 68,552 pounds of US-origin U3O8 on the spot market in October.

They are considering selling a portion of their inventories on the spot market if the price goes higher, either into the newly created US Uranium Reserve Program or for delivery into additional long-term supply contracts.

They finished the quarter with $88.7 million in cash and no debt. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

* * * * *

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Click for larger graphic – Click HERE for This is True’s Weirdest Stories

* * * * *

Your studying financial crises Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

$20-for-$1
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.66) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
  Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.17) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $10.05) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.40) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
  Inovio (INO – $2.38) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $3.11) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.62) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $1.91) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50

Other Biotech
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $8.43) – Buy under $7, target price $25+

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $146.87) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $33.90) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $82.60) – Buy under $70, target price $100
  Meta (META – $111.87) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $24.83) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Other Tech
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $40.20) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $9.58) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $22.80) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.52) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $5.31) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $2.46) – Buy under $6, target price $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($21.75) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $24.18) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $28.30) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $17.07) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $27.93) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.85) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $9.56) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.33) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.31) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $37.82) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $17,732.26) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $9.65) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,238.03) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $8.45) – Buy

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $25.72) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $29.82) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $12.69) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $22.68) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.34) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.25) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Energy
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
  iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.54) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $7.39) – Buy under $8; $30 target

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.34) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.27) – Hold for FDA meeting
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.04) – Hold for buyout

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

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