Radar Report – 11.17.22

Michael Murphy
Uncategorized
2022-11-17
17
Nov 22

Dear New World Investor:

October’s core producer price index (PPI) was unchanged from September – there was zero inflation. Annual core PPI was 6.7% year-over-year, well below the consensus estimate of 7.2%. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said: “It probably will be appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of increases. By moving forward at a pace that’s more deliberate, we’ll be able to assess more data and be better able to adjust the path of rates to bring inflation down.”

But in their usual attempt to create uncertainty, today St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed’s interest rate hikes have only had “limited effects” on inflation so far and the Fed should raise rates to a “minimum” of 5.00% to 5.25%, although he would defer to Chairman Powell to decide on the size of upcoming rate increases. In other words, as we’ve known for weeks, the Fed has a 5.25% target and will get there with a series of smaller increases. A half-point (50 basis point) increase is expected at the December 14 meeting.

Click for larger graphic

Five weeks ago the stock market said: “Your terms are acceptable” and started rallying. It’s up 13.0% so far. Some of that was driven by the trend-following, fast-money quant traders who were effectively forced to buy to cover short positions totaling about $150 billion in equities and $75 billion in fixed income on last Thursday and Friday, according to JPMorgan.

The newest BofA fund managers survey of 272 fund managers with $790 billion under management showed 92% expect stagflation, where growth continues to slow while inflation remains above average. A majority expect the Fed to keep hiking rates until the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – falls below 4% year-over-year. The latest PCE reading for September was 5.1%.

Consequently, the sentiment on stocks and global growth among these fund managers remained “uber-bearish” according to BofA. With cash levels at 6.2%, the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 0, a net 77% of respondents expecting a global recession, and their allocation to tech the lowest since 2006, BofA says “rent the pivot” until the S&P hits 4100.

With bond Commodity Trading Advisors “max short” across the board and the 10-year note now at 3.78%, below the Fed funds lower bound, a short squeeze has begun and is about to hit overdrive. That’s a huge tailwind for stocks.

The S&P 500 lost just 0.2% since last Thursday as the Fed whipped back and forth. The Index is down 17.2% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% as tech stocks caught a bid. It is down 28.8% for the year, though. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.5% and is down 18.1% in 2022.

The fractal dimension is still consolidating with quite a bit of energy to support a significant move in either direction.

Top 5

Changes this week: None

Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
INO Inovio – VGX-3100 HPV Phase 3 results by yearend
TGTX TG Therapeutics – FDA approval on December 28
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap

Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US

Economy

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is predicting robust December quarter real GDP growth of 4.2%, while the Blue Chip economists have not yet started revising their estimate up from 0.4%. They will, and that’s another tailwind for stocks.

Click for larger graphic

Virus Update

Daily deaths have fallen to the lowest level since the pandemic began.

Click for larger graphic

Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.

Wednesday, November 23
Radar Report – ~10:00pm – One day early

Thursday, November 24
Markets Closed

via GIPHY

Friday, November 25
Markets Close Early – 1:00pm
Short Interest – After the close

The $20-For-$1 Stocks

Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)

If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.

The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.

Risks

Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.

As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.

Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.20) has started screening subjects for the Phase 1 clinical trial of intravenous DMT in the Netherlands. AGNPF is a Hold for the Phase 2b IPF/chronic cough results.
Primary Risk: Ifenprodil fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2/3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: 2022

Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.65) announced they dosed the first patient to receive a continuous dosing regimen of the new G3 formulation in the Phase 1a/b clinical trial in relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia.

Modeling the G3 formulation predicts steady-state plasma exposure from continuous dosing with 50 milligrams of G3 every 12 hours should be comparable to that of 900 milligrams of the original G1 formulation, representing a significant improvement in bioavailability with G3. APTO is a Buy under $2.50 for a $30 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1a
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
   Probable time of next financing: Mid- to late-2023

Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.20) reported a September quarter loss of $5.1 million or 53¢ per share, better than the expected 58¢ loss. There was no conference call, but management said the Phase 3 REBUILD registrational trial enrollment of INOpulse for the treatment of fibrotic Interstitial Lung Disease is 85% enrolled. They expect full enrollment in the March quarter, with top-line data in September quarter.

At the end of September they had $11.3 million in cash, and I still expect them to raise money soon. Buy BLPH under $5 for a $30 first target and $100 someday.
Primary Risk: The Phase 2b PH-ILD trial fails or the FDA turns down the INOpulse.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2 transitioning to Phase 3 in March quarter
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: March 2023 quarter

Inovio (INO – $2.34) has stopped development of INO-4500 foe Lassa Fever and INO-4700 for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), two programs funded by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). The said the two drugs were well-tolerated and generated immune responses, but the two-dose regimen did not meet CEPI’s selection criteria for further development. These were minor programs and don’t affect Inovio’s future. INO is a Buy under $7 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
   Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
   Probable time of next financing: Mid-2024

ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.06) said the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) said this week it is seeking partnerships to support the development of broad-spectrum, oral/IV antifungal drug candidates with novel mechanisms of action that target Candida species, including Candida auris, and Aspergillus species. Of course, that’s exactly what ibrexafungerp does. Buy SCYX under $2 for a first target price of $20 after ibrexafungerp is approved for hospital use and a buyout at $50.
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
   Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
   Probable time of next FDA approval: late-2022
   Probable time of next financing: second half of 2023 or never

Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option

Apple (AAPL – $150.72) and Major League Soccer announced the 10th MLS Season Pass subscription service to fans in over 100 countries and regions, featuring every live MLS regular-season match, the entire playoffs, and the Leagues Cup, all with no blackouts. AAPL is a Buy under $150 for new iPhone rollouts and augmented/virtual reality products.

Meta Platforms (META – $111.45) has stopped all development work on its Portal video-calling devices and a smartwatch project. Good. I want them to focus on getting targeting data for advertisers and building the metaverse. META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.

SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.62) reported April-September first half revenues up 6.7% to $22.66 billion with a loss of 68¢ per share. The loss was primarily due to losses in their Vision Fund 2, mostly offset by profits from the sale of part of their Alibaba stake.

On the conference call (SLIDES HERE and TRANSCRIPT HERE), CEO Masayoshi Son said he will focus on building ARM and taking it public next year. Softbank and Vision Fund are adopting a “defensive” strategy to be overseen by the Chief Financial Officer, Yoshimitsu Goto.

They’ll take a 100%, $100 million write-off of their investment in the bankrupt FTX cryptocurrency exchange and didn’t announce a renewed stock buyback program, which weighed on the stock. But analysts seemed to welcome the transition to a Goto-led defensive strategy, and Softbank still sells for about half the value of its positions in public companies like Yahoo Japan. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.

Other Tech

Fastly (FSLY – $9.07) did a fireside chat at the RBC Capital Markets Technology, Internet, Media, and Telecommunications Conference (TRANSCRIPT HERE). The CFO explained the basis of my recommendation of Fastly. Edge computing started with Akamai as a way to protect companies’ servers from going down when they got a spike in traffic from a big news event. But it has evolved to performance, security, and the user experience – getting the quickest response on the cart, or getting personalized information to maximize revenue, reduce cart abandonment, or deliver extremely high-quality video timely without buffering.

It’s a very large, growing market and Fastly has a very low market share and very low penetration in their largest accounts, so therefore a clear growth path. FSLY is a Buy up to $20 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.52) reported September third revenues down 10.4% from last year to $3.46 million, right on the $3.40 million estimate. Mature product revenue was up 9.7% from last year to $1.2 million. But new product revenue was down 18.3% from last year to $2.3 million, primarily due to a reduction in smart connectivity and sensor product revenues. They lost seven cents a share compared to the 11¢ loss expected.

On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they signed the $6.9 million government contract to develop and demonstrate Strategic Radiation Hardened, high-reliability Field Programmable Gate Array technology later in the quarter than expected, which delayed some of the revenue to subsequent quarters. CEO Brian Faith said: “We did see initial revenue in September, and a significant contribution is expected to be realized in Q4 and into the H1 of 2023. The program is expected to be a significant contributor to this quarter’s revenue, given that this contract is by far our largest to date.”

They expect sales to smartphone customer will continue to be weak with the December quarter now being the low point in demand. They guided December quarter revenues to $4.3M ±10%, right on the consensus.

2022 revenue is expected to increase by 30% from last year to $16.5 million, right on the consensus for $16.4 million. They expects 2023 revenues to be up 40% to $23.1 million, versus the consensus of $22.77 million. Brian said QUIK has been designed into new models of phones that will ship well into 2024.

The company expects to report breakeven or profitability on a non-GAAP basis in the current quarter and sees a good chance of non-GAAP profitability in every quarter of 2023. QUIK is a Buy up to $10 for my $40 target as their sensor hub is widely adopted in smartphones, tablets, and wearables.
Primary Risk: New sensor hub competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.52) said that almost five months after their successful launch, the CAPSTONE spacecraft has reached its lunar destination – a unique orbit around the Moon where the future Gateway space station will support NASA’s Artemis missions. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Velo3D (VLD – $2.46) presented at the BofA Securities AI and Disruptive Technology Conference/ on “Enabling New Applications for 3D Printing.” (ZOOM HERE) The CFO said they are focused on converting parts that have to be machined or cast, because competitors can’t 3D print them, to one-pass printing.

It’s a $100 million market today, headed for 20 to 100 times that as more applications are converted to 3D. Velo3D can double every year for a long time. VLD is a Buy up to $6 for my $50 target as Velo3D’s high-tolerance metal parts printing business grows.
Primary Risk:A new 3D metal printing competitor emerges.
   Probable time of next financing: None needed

Inflation MegaShift

Gold ($1,763.30) may be seeing some inflows from people switching from bitcoin, especially in third-world countries. The Great Consolidation continues.

Miners & Related

Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.37) filed its September 10-Q. They lost $1.84 million or four cents a share and burned $1.2 million in cash. The company finished the quarter with $1.3 million in cash, so they will have to do a stock offering in the next few weeks. PZG is a Buy under $1 for a $10 target as gold moves higher.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
   Probable time of next financing: Second half of 2022

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $16,663.03) got as low as $15,560 after the fallout from the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange. One of the major features of bitcoin is that it is trustless – there is no counterparty. You own it. Why people would turn around and deposit it in a cryptocurrency exchange wallet – that they have to trust not to steal it – is beyond me.

Click for larger graphic

As JPMorgan wrote: “While the news of the collapse of FTX is empowering crypto skeptics, we would point out that all of the recent collapses in the crypto ecosystem have been from centralized players and not from decentralized protocols.”

Michael Saylor (@saylor), CEO of Microstrategy, tweeted: “The FTX collapse is an expensive ad for bitcoin. Too many good ideas have been pursued by the crypto industry in an unethical, unsound, irresponsible fashion. The only viable future is registered digital assets trading on regulated digital exchanges.”

I agree with both. Historically, bitcoin tends to bottom 517-547 days prior to the next Halving event, which is 536 days away. Ignore those who say bitcoin is dead – again.

Click for larger graphic

BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC- $8.75) is at a record 42% discount to the value of the bitcoin it holds. It’s like buying bitcoin at $9,665. Do it. GBTC is a Buy under net asset value.
Primary Risk:Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.

International & Other Recommendations
It is important to hold some non-US assets, especially in China.

Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.22) issued Kuppy’s September quarter shareholders letter. Although business is strong, he focused on the problem of investing in companies without owning more than 25% of their shares. The regulators could classify MNGGF as a passive investment fund, putting the company under restrictive mutual fund rules. He’s looking for a solution. MNGGF is a buy under $1.30 for a long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Harris Kupperman makes bad investments.

Oil – $81.95

Oil dropped $3.64 today to the lowest level in more than a month on – get this – “easing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West when it became clear that the missile striking Poland earlier in the week did not come from Russia” and “concerns that crude oil demand could fall on renewed fears that China’s struggle to get its Covid cases under control within its zero-Covid policy.”

Really? In fact, paper markets are dumping on low volume with increased margin requirements. There is a clear reduction in open interest in the November oil contract—which is close to expiring—that is causing increased market volatility. This is despite the healthy demand for physical crude oil.

Oil also traded down when OPEC+ forecast oil demand to “only” grow by 2.2 million barrels a day in 2023. Why are so few asking the obvious question: Where exactly are the incremental barrels going to come from? The oil market has been under-supplied throughout 2022, as evidenced by falling inventories despite recession fears, the largest Strategic Petroleum Reserve release in history, and China’s COVID-zero policies.

Click for larger graphic

Bernstein looked at the impact of the G7 price caps on Russian oil exports, which are expected December 5: “It seems unlikely that Russia will be able to bridge the gap and as such we expect a loss of 1.2 million barrels a day in Russian exports next year, which will push oil markets back into deficit and oil prices higher. We estimate a 0.8 million barrels a day deficit in the market next year on the back of the reduction in the Russian oil supply. This could push oil prices back to $120 a barrel and average oil prices next year of $100 a barrel.”

Meanwhile, unless we see a dramatic shift in the ESG, World Economic Forum, UN Climate Change Conference, and Biden Administration’s antipathy to fossil fuels, US shale hyper-growth is over. The prevailing attitude of “Discipline is the new normal” plus another year of 15% service cost inflation means ±0.5MM barrels a day of growth in 2023. Energy Aspects is calling for peak shale in 2024.

Click for larger graphic

So the headwinds of 2022 becoming tailwinds in 2023:

1. SPR releases ending (~0.8 million barrels a day ) +
2. China COVID-zero easing (0.5-1.0 million barrels a day) +
3. Euro fuel switching (0.3+ million barrels a day) +
4. EU Russian import ban (0.0-1.0 million barrels a day) =

1.6-3.1 million barrels a day swing year-over-year.

OPEC+ to the rescue? They plan to cut production. Not to mention that their spare capacity is largely exhausted and long-cycle realities are delaying meaningful additions until 2025-2027.

Today’s Energy Information Administration showed a crude draw of nearly10 million barrels (5+ million commercial and 4+million SPR) – an extremely bullish print, especially at this time of year. When Russian and Saudi Arabian exports drop next month, and the SPR releases end, the supply shortfall will be intense. The Fed can’t print oil and the market is in trouble. Got OIL?

The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.

The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $30.53) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.

Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.99) sold its Alta Mesa In Situ Recovery project in Texas to EnCore Energy for $120 million. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2022 or early 2023. The cash received is expected to fully finance much of UUUU’s uranium, REE, vanadium, and medical isotope business plans for the next two to three years without diluting shareholders. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.

* * * * *

* * * * *

Your grateful for many things Editor,

Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor

All Recommendations

Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.

Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.

$20-for-$1
  Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.65) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
  Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.20) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
  Compass Pathways (CMPS – $10.20) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
  Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.55) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
  Inovio (INO – $2.34) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
  Invitae (NVTA – $3.00) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
  Medicenna (MDNA – $0.47) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
  ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.06) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50

Other Biotech
  TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $8.32) – Buy under $7, target price $25+

Tech Dominators
  Apple Computer (AAPL – $150.72) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
  Corning (GLW – $33.29) – Buy under $33, target price $60
  Gilead Sciences (GILD – $83.62) – Buy under $70, target price $100
  Meta (META – $111.45) – Buy under $250, target price $400
  SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.62) – Buy under $25, target price $50

Other Tech
  First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $39.93) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
  Fastly (FSLY – $9.07) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
  PagerDuty (PD – $22.54) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
  QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.52) – Buy under $10, target price $40
  Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.52) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
  Velo3D (VLD – $2.46) – Buy under $6, target price $50

Inflation
  A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
  Bag of Junk Silver – ($21.05) – hold through silver bull market
  Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $23.26) – Buy under $28, target price $50
  Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $27.59) – Buy under $39, target price $100
  Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $16.90) – Buy under $18, target price $30
  Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $27.13) – Buy under $30, target price $50
  Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.28) – Buy under $5, target price $20
  First Majestic Mining (AG – $9.04) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
  Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.37) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
  Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $5.08) – Buy under $10, target price $25
  Sprott Inc. (SII – $36.66) – Buy under $40, target price $70

Cryptocurrencies
  Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $16,663.03) – Buy
  Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $8.75) – Buy
  Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,214.33) – Buy
  Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $7.06) – Buy

International & Other Recommendations
  EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $28.74) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
  KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $30.00) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
  Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $13.21) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
  KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $26.96) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
  Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.45) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
  Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.22) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold

Energy
  Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
  iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $30.53) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
  Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.99) – Buy under $8; $30 target

Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
  Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $2.20) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
  Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.25) – Hold for FDA meeting
  Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.05) – Hold for buyout

Publisher: GwynRose LLC, 5348 Vegas Drive, Suite 868, Las Vegas, NV 89108

New World Investor does not act as a personal investment adviser or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. The recommendations and analysis presented to members are for the exclusive use of members. Members should be aware that investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. Likewise, past performance does not assure future results. Recommendations are subject to change at any time. Nothing in this presentation should be considered personalized investment advice. No communication to you by Michael Murphy or any of our employees or contractors should be deemed as personalized investment advice.

Copyright ©GwynRoseLLC 2022

New World Investor Mastermind Group

1. Post unto others as you would have them post unto you.
2. Keep it clean, like a 1950s family television show. Your alter ego can run free on Twitter.
3. NO PERSONAL ATTACKS! If you don’t like the stock, don’t trash the person. Everyone is responsible for their own due diligence and investments.
4. Don’t post here about politics or religion – you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind. Again, NO PERSONAL ATTACKS!
5. The investment implications of something going on in politics or religion is OK.
6. Of course, there’s never a reason to slur someone based on race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, or country of national origin.
7. Please, no snark!

Print This Post Print This Post
Subscribe
Notify of
25 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

1st.

2nd

Third

Wow, SoftBank lost 100 million in that FTX circus!! That’s a serious bet on cryptos . Thank you SEC for NOT doing your job with FTX!!!And the fallout ran over into Bitcoin. I am glad I had zero money in FTX.

GBTC has the same parent as Genesis.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-dips-to-16-4k-over-genesis-woes-as-execs-defend-gbtc

STAY AWAY. There is a reason it is selling at a huge discount.

BITO a much safer play.

MM–please address my recent posts on SCYX. Thanks.

JGMD

 November 14, 2022 9:53 am

MM–when can SCYX expect approval for serious hospital infections? 2024, or after their cash runs out? Until then, Brexa is a money loser for VVC, so the Nov 30 approval for recurrent VVC means nothing. It is truthfully merely an early phase 2 company with all the time risks. Safer bets are any blue chip with decent earnings, while SCYX continues to be ignored except by short sellers.

0

 Reply

JGMD

 Reply to  JGMD
 November 14, 2022 8:59 pm

MM–also, how much licensing revenue can SCYX get for Brexa in VVC? How much longer will their cash runway be with licensing revenue included?

MM – could you clarify please, are you saying Coinbase as a crypto currency exchange is not safe?

MM: your opinion on BITO? Is the FTC any closer to allowing approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF?

From yahoo message board so take it for what it’s worth:

“Genesis, Grayscale and CoinDesk are all subsidiaries of Digital Currency Group (DCG). When GBTC says that haven’t borrowed against their Grayscale funds, I believe them. However, you have to understand that these are times when believing people doesn’t easily come to investors in the crypto space.”

There seems to be some overhang on GBTC. Take a look today, GBTC is down 6%, BITO is down .6% and BTC is down .6%.

I hoe you are right about Grayscale., article I saw today on it in link below
https://cryptoslate.com/community-fears-ftx-implosion-might-affect-grayscale/

MM, you referenced below about BLPH raising money soon. With the price currently trading at $1.12, the SP would be decimated if they did it any time soon. You previously mentioned that they would probably raise money once they announce the trial being fully enrolled.

At the end of September they had $11.3 million in cash, and I still expect them to raise money soon.

MM, I had put this on the previous message board. Please share the thoughts. Thanks!!

MM, as I write this Medicenna is at a 52 week low of .46. Ever since they did that horrible offering back in August, it’s been in a free fall, even with the good news of MDNA11. Thoughts?

Murphy,

First you say: “Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying asset that offer a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at CoinbaseBlock, or Robinhood.”

Then you say: “Why people would turn around and deposit it in a cryptocurrency exchange wallet – that they have to trust not to steal it – is beyond me.”

These statements seem to contradict each other.

Are you saying that you should purchase BTC on Coinbase then move it to your hardware wallet?

Also, please elaborate on why you prefer GBTC rather than BITO. I know BITO is BTC futures but it has half the management fees and no dangerous relationship with Digital Currency Group ( the parent of Genesis and GBTC).

I know you’re not that into this board anymore but trying to follow your logic.

MM – please provide insight on the safety of Coinbase and GBTC, ETHE as these are investments you’ve recommended and there’s significant concern about them

I think he has checked out. Personally, I’m out of Grayscale and Coinbase completely. I think there will be more contagion near term. I would love to buy more BTC if it drops into the 5-10k range.

wish i bailed out of GBTC a while ago. it was a small position when i opened it about half what it was now

Last edited 3 years ago by MR. SAMUEL HOPKINS

Yes, you, me and millions of other folks would jump on that. IMO. But , I doubt that will happen. Unless the stock market goes completely into the toilet bowl. The only thing holding gold , cryptos and the stock market down is the strong dollar, inflation, interest rates and recession boogeymen. But, I will be watching to see if you are right.

MM – please comment on GBTC and Coinbase, now is not the time to ignore this board

MM–please address my comments about SCYX above, also. Thanks.

It has to be hard for mm to address any of the picks on the newsletter at this point this year because almost all them this year have been total crap,sad to say,as they sink further into the red,all it seems like is to take a major loss or hold on,since I have plenty of losses already,as for me I won’t sell in hopes of a major recovery come the new year,have a nice Thanksgiving

Oh boy. More inflation and higher food and gas prices. The railroad workers are demanding 24 percent wage increases and a $5000.00’bonus. Strike ahead. Shutting down major rail lines during the holidays. IMO