Dear New World Investor:
Yesterday the Fed raised the Fed funds rate by 3/4 of a percent, or 75 basis points (bps) for the fourth consecutive time. There was something for everyone in the Fed’s action. The press release had a dovish tone: “In determining the pace of future increases, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
“Cumulative tightening” and “lagged impact” suggest that this will be the last 75bps hike and in December the move will most likely be 50bps.
But in the press conference, Chairman Powell said: “The question of when to moderate the pace of increases is now much less important than the question of how high to raise rates and how long to keep monetary policy restrictive…The incoming data since our last meeting suggest the terminal rate of Fed Funds will be higher than previously expected, and we will stay the course until the job is done…It is very premature to be thinking about a pause in our interest rate hiking cycle….Prudent risk management suggests the risks of doing too little are much higher than doing too much. If we were to over-tighten, we could use our tools later on to support the economy. Instead, if we did too little we would risk inflation getting entrenched and that’s a much greater risk for our mandate ”
So that was a hawkish pivot, right? Well, not so fast. The shortsellers were quick to jump on the press conference language to declare there was no Fed pivot. But what will a pivot look like in the real world? Will it be:
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No, it will not. It will be a step-by-step gradual process that starts with less-harsh language like: “In determining the pace of future increases, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
And then:
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So maybe the bears will be right and stocks will drop sharply as the Fed drives the economy into a serious recession, mostly because they are primarily watching the labor market and core inflation rates, two things that lag the economic cycle. Or maybe (and in my mind, more likely), yesterday marked the start of a Fed pivot from their shock & awe monetary policy to a more neutral stance. If so, the October 13 intraday low at 3,491.58 was the S&P 500 low. Bear markets tend to bottom in October:
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And the 1982-1983 analogy may play out again:
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One thing we know for sure: Stocks are way cheaper than they were, and many companies are still introducing new products and growing. We also know that last year, when the M2 money supply was growing by 27% a year, the 2.6% inflation rate was likely to move higher. Today, M2 is growing at just 2.5%. The seeds have been sown for a sharp fall in inflation.
Market Outlook
The S&P 500 lost 2.3% since last Thursday. The Index is down 22.0% year-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite was clobbered for 4.2% and is down 33.9% for the year. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 1.5% and is down 20.7% in 2022.
The fractal dimension ticked a bit higher, as it will in these up-and-down consolidations. If the market is flat to down over the next three weeks, the fractal dimension might signal that a downtrend has started. That would be very unusual for this time of year, though.
Top 5
Changes this week: None
Near-Term – chronological order
OIL iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note – crude should rise quickly
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust – Bitcoin is coming out of one of its periodic sharp drops
INO Inovio – VGX-3100 HPV Phase 3 results by yearend
TGTX TG Therapeutics – FDA approval on December 28
META Meta – Bounce from overdone selloff
VLD Velo3D – Rapid revenue growth; low market cap
Long-Term – alphabetical order
GRPH Graphite Bio – second-generation genetic editing
NVTA Invitae – the winner-take-most of genetic testing
META Meta – a leader in the metaverse
RKLB Rocket Lab – #2 to SpaceX in space
VLD Velo3D – Return manufacturing to the US
Economy
The Atlanta Fed’s early estimate for December quarter real GDP growth is +3.6%, far above the Blue Chip consensus for +0.4%.
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Coming Events
All times below are ET, and most presentations and slides are archived on the companies’ websites so you can listen to them.
Friday, November 4
AG – First Majestic – Through 11/5 – International Precious Metals & Commodities Show
GILD – Gilead – Through 11/8 – Over 70 (!) abstracts at the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) Liver Meeting
October payrolls report – 8:30am – +200,000 expected; September was +263,000
MDNA – Medicenna – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
SII – Sprott – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
AGNPF – Algernon Pharmaceuticals – 1:00pm – Business Session Keynote at the Wonderland Psychedelic Conference
Saturday, November 5
AGNPF – Algernon Pharmaceuticals – 2:00pm – Science Session Keynote at the Wonderland Psychedelic Conference
Monday, November 7
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
Tuesday, November 8
ACRDF – Acreage Holdings – 10:00am – Earnings conference call
INO – Inovio – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
NVTA – Invitae – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
VLD – Velo3D – 5:00pm – Earnings conference call
Wednesday, November 9
SCYX – ScyNexis – 8:30am – Earnings conference call
CDE – Coeur Mining – After the close – Earnings release; call tomorrow
Short Interest – After the close
RKLB – Rocket Lab – 4:30pm – Earnings conference call
Thursday, November 10
RKLB – Rocket Lab – Unspec. – Stifel 2022 Midwest One-on-One Growth Conference
RKLB – Rocket Lab – Unspec. – Deutsche Bank Global Space Summit
Consumer Price Index – 8:30am – +6.9% expected, previous was +8.2%. Core month-over-month +0.5% expected; previous was +0.6%
MDNA – Medicenna – 9:00am – poster presentation at Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer annual meeting
CDE – Coeur Mining – 11:00am – Earnings conference call
Friday, November 11
SFTBY – Softbank – 3:30am – Earnings conference call
MDNA – Medicenna – 9:00am – another poster presentation at the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer annual meeting
The $20-For-$1 Stocks
Say you put $2,000 into a stock that goes from 50¢ a share to $10. The $2,000 turns into $40,000. Then you put the $40,000 into another stock that goes from 50¢ to $10. That turns the $40,000 into $800,000. You did it with two stocks, and never risked going negative more than $2,000. (Not that you won’t be mad at me if the first one works and then the second one doesn’t, taking your $40,000 to Money Heaven.)
If you can afford it – and it would not be too big a position in your portfolio – putting $2,000 into each of these 12 speculative biotechs might be a good way to start.
The market capitalizations of these recommendations are typically very low. At the same time, Initial Public Offering valuations had moved very high. We were seeing $750 million to $900 million valuations for a good preclinical/Phase 1 IPO, and even $300 million to $500 million for mediocre Phase 1s. I don’t see how investors make 5x to 10x in a reasonable, three- to four-year period if they buy at those valuations. How many biotechs have moved north of $10 billion within 5 years after pricing an IPO in the $700 million to $900 million range? Hardly any. Buying these out-of-favor, fallen, or forgotten companies that can get important products through the FDA at very low market capitalizations seems like a much better strategy to me.
Risks
Development-stage biotechs are subject to investor sentiment swings from wildly optimistic to excessively pessimistic – mostly the latter recently. After the Primary Risk for each company, I’ve added the clinical stage of their lead product, the probable time of their first FDA approval, and the probable time of their next financing.
As always, you need to think about an appropriate position size. You could buy a full position upfront and then just hold on, or buy some upfront and leave room to add more on the inevitable financings, transient clinical trial setbacks, and the like.
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.72) reported a September quarter loss of $9.8 million or 11¢ a share, a penny better than expectations. On the conference call (TRANSCRIPT HERE), management said they have completed the Phase 1/2 trial of tuspetinib (their new name for HM43239) in relapsed or refractory AML (acute myeloid leukemia) patients that had failed prior treatments with a superior safety profile and clinical responses that included Complete Remissions across three dose levels, 80, 120, and 160 milligrams. They’ve selected 120 milligrams as the initiating single agent expansion trial dose and 80 milligrams as the initiating dose selected for a combination with venetoclax. Well, see data at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) annual meeting on December 11.
They have started recruiting for a tuspetinib dose expansion trial that will segue into registrational trials for accelerated approval in sub-populations of relapsed or refractory AML patients with high unmet medical needs.
The new formulation of luxeptinib, with an 18-fold improvement in oral bioavailability, has been submitted to the FDA. Aptose expects approval shortly. Wall Street really liked the report and the stock was up almost 27% today.
The company finished the quarter with $55.4 million in cash, enough to carry them through 2023 into the March 2024 quarter. APTO is a Buy under $2.50 for a $30 target in a buyout.
Primary Risk: Either drug fails in clinical trials.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 1a
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2025
Probable time of next financing: Mid- to late-2023
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $10.27) reported a September quarter loss of $18.4 million or 43¢ per share, much better than the consensus expectation of a 65¢ loss.
On the conference call (AUDIO HERE), management said the treatment-resistant depression Phase 3 pivotal program design is finalized and on track to start in 2022. Several clinical sites have already been initiated.
In addition, COMP360 is in Phase 2 trials in anorexia nervosa, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), adult autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and numerous additional investigator-initiated studies.
They had $173.1 million in cash at the end of September, enough to get them well into 2024. CMPS is a Buy under $20 for a very long-term hold to a 10x.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 2
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2024
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2023
Inovio (INO – $2.14) has stopped funding INO-4800 as a COVID-19 heterologous booster vaccine. As I wrote in the Comments, INO-4800 is still one of only two vaccines in the WHO Solidarity Trials. I expect it will be the most effective one, but what that will mean for INO’s finances is unclear. The VGX-3100 HPV Phase 3 results are coming by yearend, so INO still is a short-term buy. INO is a Buy under $7 for a very long-term hold.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic.
Clinical stage of lead product: Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: Mid-2024
Invitae (NVTA – $2.51) announced the findings of a study that documents the actions clinicians take upon receiving a positive diagnostic genetic testing result for patients with epilepsy. The findings, in JAMA Neurology, demonstrate that a positive genetic diagnosis leads to clinical management changes in approximately half of patients and that changes implemented by clinicians based on genetic testing improve health outcomes in as many as three-quarters of patients.
Buy NVTA under $10 for the first target of $50 and eventually $100+ when they become the Amazon of genetic testing.
Primary Risk: A competitor starts taking significant market share.
Clinical stage of lead product: NM
Probable time of first FDA approval: NM
Probable time of next financing: Not needed
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.67) got the expected Nasdaq six-month delisting notice because their stock price has been under $1 for 30 days. They have until April 23, 2023, to get the price up. All they need to get there is a partner for MDNA55. Buy MDNA under $3 for the first target of $20, then maybe $40.
Primary Risk: Their drugs fail in the clinic. Clinical stage of lead product: Entering Phase 3
Probable time of first FDA approval: 2023
Probable time of next financing: March 2024
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.26) announced the peer-reviewed publication of their Phase 3 trials in the
Primary Risk: Ibrexafungerp fails to sell.
Clinical stage of lead product: Approved
Probable time of next FDA approval: late-2022
Probable time of next financing: second half of 2023 or newer
Biotech & Digital Dominators MegaShift
There are at least four ways to make money in the stocks of these large, growing, dominant companies. You can:
* * Buy a stock and hold it
* * Buy a stock and write a call option against it
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option
* * With a Level IV options account, write an out-of-the-money put option and use part of the premium to buy an out-of-the-money call option
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $79.46) got FDA approval for Vemlidy to treat chronic hepatitis B virus infections in pediatric patients. It was previously approved for adults. GILD is a Long-Term Buy under $70 for a first target of $100.
Meta Platforms (META – $88.91) is a bet on two things: digital advertising and Zuckerberg’s laser-like focus on the metaverse. I am a strong believer in both. I expect Meta, Apple, Microsoft, and Snap to be major factors in the metaverse, with Google a real possibility. And as I’ve been saying, I expect the metaverse to be a dominate theme of the next 20 years, changing business, education, commerce, entertainment, travel, and many other areas.
Two Meta products, Meta Quest 2 and Ray-Ban Stories were just selected for Oprah’s Favorite Things 2022, her annual list of must-have holiday gifts.
About the first-generation $299 Ray-Ban Stories smart glasses, she said: “Now, this is cool — in fact, it might just be the gift of the year! They look like classic, streamlined Wayfarer sunglasses, but they actually connect to your phone. You can listen to music or podcasts, answer calls, and even take pictures and videos. A simple tap or voice command is all it takes to do these things. And they charge in their case!”
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And of the $399 Meta Quest 2, she wrote: “When the first iteration of this virtual reality headset came out, we made it a Favorite Thing because we loved the way it allowed you to play games, take fitness classes, and explore far-off places. This updated version allows you to do all that and more. Now you can explore every inch of the metaverse with a pal who also has a headset.”
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META is a Buy under $150 for a $400 target in 2024.
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.28) reports earnings next week, and in a highly unusual development they will be presented by the Chief Financial Officer, not CEO Masayoshi Son. Masa will give opening remarks, so he’s not ill. I guess this is some sort of Japanese atonement thingy for the bad investment year they’re having. SFTBY is a Buy under $25 for a first target of $50 in the next two years.
Other Tech
Fastly (FSLY – $8.78) reported record September quarter revenues up 25.1% from last year to $108.5 million, solidly beating the $103.66 million estimate and the high end of their guidance. The pro-forma loss of $16.7 million or 14¢ per share also beat by three cents.
The Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate – the amount of money a customer spends with them this year compared to last year – increased to 122% in the September quarter from 120% in the June quarter. Their total customer count increased to 2,925, of which 482 were enterprise customers. The average enterprise customer spend of $759,000 was up 4% quarter-over-quarter.
On the conference call (INVESTOR SUPPLEMENT and TRANSCRIPT HERE), management guided the December quarter to revenues of $112 million to $116 million, with a pro forma loss of 11¢ to 15¢. For the full year, they expect total revenues of $425 million to $429 million with a pro forma loss of 63¢ to 67¢.
The company finished the quarter with $532.9 million in cash and is fully funded to profitability. FSLY is a Buy up to $20 for a 2- to 5-year hold to $80+ as Compute@Edge drives customer acquisition and revenue growth.
Primary Risk:Content and applications delivery networks are a competitive area.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB – $4.94) holds its earnings conference call next Wednesday and here’s a first. They have opened up a public Q&A platform where verified retail and institutional shareholders will be able to submit and up-vote questions. A selection of these questions will be answered by Rocket Lab management during the earnings call. To submit questions, go to https://app.saytechnologies.com/rocket-lab-2022-q3. Let’s hope this starts a trend!
They are going to try to catch the Electron rocket with a helicopter as it returns to Earth from space during their 32nd Electron launch next week. RKLB is a Buy up to $13 for my $30+ target as low earth orbit satellites and space exploration grow.
Primary Risk: A new competitor emerges.
Probable time of next financing: None needed
Inflation MegaShift
Gold ($1.632.10) couldn’t fight the Fed and dropped 1.7% from last Thursday in spite of the stunning news from the World Gold Council that central banks bought a record 399 tonnes of gold worth around $20 billion in the September quarter.
They said almost 25% of that was bought by central banks that don’t publicly report their purchases, stoking speculation about mystery buyers. Only some central banks have the capacity for such purchases, primarily China and Russia.
After six years of silence, in 2015 China revealed a nearly 600-ton jump in its bullion reserves. They haven’t reported any change in their gold hoard since 2019, but they probably are buying under the radar. They have imported 902 tons of gold so far this year, already surpassing last year’s total. That’s on top of the more than 300 tons the country’s mines typically produce yearly.
They’ve been selling US Treasurys because they want to find an alternative to dollars, which dominate their reserves. Tensions with the US are high and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated Washington’s willingness to sanction central bank reserves. They probably are the mystery buyer.
The fractal dimension is still very high, with plenty of energy to power a trend to new highs.
But historically, gold is sensitive to real interest rates. It may take another step in the Fed pivot to get gold moving up.
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Miners & Related
First Majestic (AG – $8.08) announced positive drilling results from its ongoing exploration program at the Jerritt Canyon mine in Nevada. They have identified another high-grade underground mineralized pod near their current mining activities, with 10 to 20 grams per tonne. AG is a Buy under $11 for a $23 next target price as production increases and the price of silver rises.
Primary Risk: Prices of precious metals fall due to US dollar strength.
Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies are a diversifying assets that offers a unique opportunity to make (or lose!) a lot of money quickly. You can easily buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at Coinbase, Block, or Robinhood.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD on Yahoo – $20,205.28) rose over $20,000 last week and so far has found support there, in spite of the Fed and the selloff in other risk assets.
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BTC-USD, ETH-USD, GBTC, and ETHE are Strong Buys.
Primary Risk: Bitcoin falls due to over-regulation or is surpassed by another cryptocurrency.
Oil – $88.10
Oil spiked on an Associated Press report citing sources that Iran could attack Saudi Arabia within 48 hours. These rumors come and go, and don’t count for much in the long run.
One of the strongest but barely noticed trends in the oil market this year is the rapid decline in producer hedging (measured by swap dealer positioning and quarterly filings). If the main natural oil sellers don’t sell anymore, then who will?
The Energy Information Administration made another big revision to US total oil demand with the release of the monthly data for August. August’s total demand was 20.601 million barrels a day, up 547,000 barrels a day from the 20.054 million barrels a day estimated using weekly data for the same month. Gasoline and diesel were both revised.
Put this in the Things I Watch In The Long-Term bucket: China reportedly has discovered a deepwater oil field with reserves of 50 billion barrels. This massive find in the ocean just off China’s coast in Hainan Province could signal a shift in the balance of global oil power because the find is bigger than the entire US oil reserves.
The July 2026 Crude Oil Futures (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) are a Buy under $55 for a $200+ target.
The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.89) is a Buy under $36 for an $80+ target.
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.70) got a nice writeup on SeekingAlpha: Energy Fuels: Absolutely Not The Time To Give Up. The author’s basic thesis is that uranium prices are going to move higher and head to $55+ per pound sooner rather than later and Energy Fuels, which has survived the prolonged uranium winter, still holds no debt. UUUU is a buy under $8 for a $30 target.
Primary Risk: Uranium prices fall.
* * * * *
The Killer is gone. RIP
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Your reading The Rise of the Creator Economy Editor,
Michael Murphy CFA
Founding Editor
New World Investor
All Recommendations
Check out the complete Portfolio page HERE.
Buys
These are the stocks everyone needs to own because transformative events are happening over the next year or two, and I expect to hold them long-term.
$20-for-$1
Aptose Biosciences (APTO – $0.72) – Buy under $2.50, ultimate target $30
Bellerophon Therapeutics (BLPH – $1.10) – Buy under $5, first target $30, then $100
Compass Pathways (CMPS – $10.27) – Buy under $20, hold a long time for a 10x return
Graphite Bio (GRPH – $3.40) – Buy under $9, hold a long time
Inovio (INO – $2.14) – Buy under $7, hold a long time
Invitae (NVTA – $2.51) – Buy under $10, first target $50, then $100+
Medicenna (MDNA – $0.67) – Buy under $3, first target $20, then maybe $40
ScyNexis (SCYX – $2.26) – Buy under $3, target price $20, then $50
Other Biotech
TG Therapeutics (TGTX – $5.88) – Buy under $7, target price $25+
Tech Dominators
Apple Computer (AAPL – $138.88) – Buy under $150 for new iPhones
Corning (GLW – $31.88) – Buy under $33, target price $60
Gilead Sciences (GILD – $79.46) – Buy under $70, target price $100
Meta (META – $88.91) – Buy under $250, target price $400
SoftBank (SFTBY – $22.28) – Buy under $25, target price $50
Other Tech
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR – $38.41) – Buy under $40; 3- to 5-year hold
Fastly (FSLY – $8.78) – Buy under $20; 2- to 5-year hold to $80+
PagerDuty (PD – $22.16) – Buy under $30; 2- to 5-year hold
QuickLogic (QUIK – $6.29) – Buy under $10, target price $40
Rocket Lab (RKLB – $4.94) – Buy under $13, target price $30+
Velo3D (VLD – $3.70) – Buy under $6, target price $50
Inflation
A Short-Sale or REO House – ($447,000) – Buy while fixed mortgage rates are low
Bag of Junk Silver – ($19.48) – hold through silver bull market
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM – $19.69) – Buy under $28, target price $50
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ – $22.60) – Buy under $39, target price $100
Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF – $15.60) – Buy under $18, target price $30
Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL – $23.76) – Buy under $30, target price $50
Coeur Mining (CDE – $3.56) – Buy under $5, target price $20
First Majestic Mining (AG – $8.08) – Buy under $11, next target price $23
Paramount Gold Nevada (PZG – $0.30) – Buy under $1, first target price $10
Sandstorm Gold (SAND – $4.63) – Buy under $10, target price $25
Sprott Inc. (SII – $34.52) – Buy under $40, target price $70
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin (BTC-USD – $20,205.28) – Buy
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – $11.82) – Buy
Ethereum (ETH-USD – $1,532.10) – Buy
Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE – $10.16) – Buy
International & Other Recommendations
EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet & Ecommerce ETF (EMQQ – $23.77) – Buy under $38 for a $66 target in 12 to 18 months
KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A Share Fund (KBA – $28.12) – Buy under $40 for a three- to five-year hold
Morgan Stanley China A-Shares Fund (CAF – $12.50) – Buy under $18 for a three- to five-year hold
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB – $21.07) – Buy under $40 for a double over the next three years
Acreage Holdings (ACRDF – $1.40) – Buy under $2 for the Canopy Growth merger
Mongolia Growth Group (MNGGF – $1.22) – Buy under $1.30; long-term hold
Energy
Crude Oil Futures – July 2026 (CLN26.NYM – $53.16) – Buy under $55; $200+ target
iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil Exchange-Traded Note (OIL – $31.89) – Buy under $36; $80+ target
Energy Fuels (UUUU – $6.70) – Buy under $8; $30 target
Holds
These are holds but not sells – yet. They could get moved back to one of the buy categories if their prices drop or outlook improves, or they could become sell recommendations in the future.
Algernon Pharmaceuticals (AGNPF – $1.86) – Hold for IPF/chronic cough trial
Akebia Biotherapeutics (AKBA – $0.29) – Hold for FDA meeting
Arch Therapeutics (ARTH – $0.05) – Hold for buyout
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MM, please comment on the SD Q3 report. What is the current fair value for SD in your opinion? thanks.
It was another strong quarter due to the price of nat gas. They aren’t growing production very fast, and they’re about out of uncompleted or shut-in wells to bring back. The stock looks fairly priced on current results, but I think prices are headed higher and Icahn still wants to sell yjr company north of $30.
MM – will the data APTO will share on 12/11 be a major price catalyst if positive?
MM–also please comment on YMB poster Carol J who is still extremely bearish on APTO. Her main thesis is that the company takes forever to do trials on too few patients. Only ONE patient had the reported good result which spiked the stock. It seems now that the company has done plenty of experiments on 239 dose escalation, all they have to do is enroll more patients at the ideal dose or dosages. But enrollment has been slow for years. Will it change? Even if yes, long term funding for phase 3 trials will be the kiss of death, just as with Algernon. Otherwise, betting on partnering to fund further studies based on good coming phase 2 results is extremely risky. How often does partnership occur after early phase 2 results?
The reason the company takes forever to do trials on only a few patients is Rice is a very careful drug developer who doesn’t believe in taking big risks with dosages. As I said above, they’ve seen clinical responses that included Complete Remissions across three dose levels, 80, 120, and 160 milligrams. They’ve selected 120 milligrams as the initiating single agent expansion trial dose and 80 milligrams as the initiating dose selected for a combination with venetoclax. So they are ready to go into a trial that will segue into registrational trials for accelerated approval. They have enough cash to get through 2023 into 2024. Thanks to the Carol Js of the world, we can buy in at a $63 million market cap. Dirt cheap.
Thanks. However, you have been saying the same thing for awhile but the stock has dropped by 2/3 over that time. How does the company overcome their failure to recruit more than a handful of patients at any stage of development?
Yes, I think so. They may do another Investor Day, although that’s not announced yet. There are many licensing deals and acquisitions that come out of ASH.
I hope Jerry Lee Lewis gets to play in Heaven when I get there
MM How do you think NVTA stock will respond after earningsTuesday ?
We better hope nvta doesn’t lose more than 62 cents Tuesday if it does it will go under 2 dollars ,hopefully with exas earnings surprising it can happen to nvta,mm thoughts with nvta have been so off,they way Sean George ran this,his vision did not help the shareholders what so ever,so far what he did..he ran the share price into the ground
Who replaced Sean? RE NVTA
Q3 2022 Earnings Expected 11/08/2022
Mean estimate from 10 analysts is -$0.63 with a range of -$0.83 to -$0.41, an increase of 31.21% from the same period a year ago.
Revenue estimate is $131.35M, a $16.95M increase from the same period a year ago.
Don,old management including Kenneth knight came back in and took over as ceo replacing Sean George in hopes that they can right this ship and stop with all the cash burn,hoping they can save this company about 2 and a half months ago they replaced him. Hopefully that helps,have a safe weekend
Thank You Ronald
The new team is trying to give Wall Street what it wants, so the big question is G&A expenses and a smaller cash burn. I expect them to show that, so the stock goes up.
Mm,a question for you,do you ever take into question about board members buying there own stock,,at least 8 members on the the board at nvta with salaries up to 1 million a year,and not one interested in buying shares in the open market at a low low price of 2.45 for the last 2 months is that not a red flag,do they not have faith in there own company or are they not allowed,any thoughts on that,since alot of us are down 70 percent on this issue alone
What are G@A expenses?
I hope so to.
But what if? Oh, no! I hear things have loosened up, one nighters can be booked. Heat can be a problem if musical instruments are expected
Mike, check your units on the China discovery. What I saw is a gas discovery — 50 billion cubic meters.
You are correct.
Musk is on the move. Twitter is in his sights. Heads are going to fall. He finally realized he paid too much for a company with little revenue/forward guidance. Sixteen managers for one decoder. After firing all the board members who went up against his ownership/taking the company private, it will be interesting how he gets out of this mess. IMO
The FED’s kill inflation/along with the economy plan is working. Meta announced large scale layoffs, Twitter is reducing it’s labor force by a whopping 50 percent. Lyft, Stripe, and Opendoor fired 10 percent of their staff. Apple and Amazon froze all hiring. Just what Powell wants. Higher unemployment. Also oil notes. To get back to its 2020 levels at the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) we will need to buy about 240 million barrels of oil. Got oil???
Good news for NVTA Beat estimates on Revenues. Very positive report
Agree with you Don,looks like they only lost 42 cents after charges,beating the 62 cent loss they were projecting. Looks like the bottom could in,hopefully. Now onto the mess with vld,have a good night
Ahoy top of the morning to you all.
i hesitate to ask as it’s a lighting rod with the MAGA read (Nationalist) that seem to control or jest troll this board.
Anyone else buying TESL yesterday?
I added %12.5. averaging down in the face of the “GOP of coal” hopes for a red wave and a return to drill baby drill, and Government subsidized energy.
Instead of the New World C.T.S.L. forward thinking Tec we used to focus on hear back in the days of a dial-up connection that could be the future of OUR shared economy.
Did you mean TSLA? That company is in trouble while Elon continues to sell and screw around with a failed social media site.
AXON is having a big day. Body cams with a gigantic moat.
ENPH is killing it also as the world moves away from oil.
yes thanks TSLA im disabled. wish E was not involved with twitter. im not smart enough to time it jest seemed like in 5 years it would be higher.
He has outlined his lifetime “3rd WORLD” Plan to bring prosperity to all of the world through what turnouts to be 8 stages for prosperity to all contents from his is centered moving his operations to Texas from the West Coast. All this is masked by his current unrelated news. From what I see this might be the “bridge too far” for his TESLA, Space and other efforts unassociated with this months other Musk news.
Is this a “bridge too far”.
This is no joke, Dig into the Texas based news for him and his lifelong Lithium based power supplies.
If the GOP is MAGA the democRATS must be MAPA make america poor again!
interesting history on MAGA i cant think of a time Nationalism ended well. Our country needs a strong middle class in order to have a really healthy economy. but its a free country and everyone is welcome to there own point of view. i know a lot of people that think trickily down is the way to go.
The Dems don’t represent freedom. Freedom is desired by all economic levels, races, genders. Dems love regulations and control with mandates, which are both opposites of freedom.
Velo3D will speak at the Bank of America Securities A.I. and Disruptive Technology Conference on November 10 at 10:00am EST.
VLD had been one of my winners in till today
MM or Ronald Why did NVTA go up and then immediately take a dive down below where it started? Does that indicate a big short position is in this company? Is it good to hold these positions on a long position or are we to sell when they go up?
Morning Donald,even though I was disappointed that the stock dropped back after that little run up I am still optimistic after reading the report and at this current price I will continue to hold and even add a little more now and then to bring my over all price down a little more.The two reasons it dropped today was over all market conditions,also the percentage of short interest in it.we will start seeing upgrades in the future,for now it’s all about wall street hating it,have a great day
The new Radar Report for 11.10.22 is posted.