Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Radar Report – 10.27.22

27
Oct 22
Dear New World Investor: September quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, double the Blue Chip consensus for +1.3% and half a percent under the latest Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for +3.1%. Click for larger graphic So are we not in a recession?...

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Radar Report – 10.20.22

20
Oct 22
Dear New World Investor: After the explosive Monday-Tuesday upturn, stocks retraced the whole gain. There wasn’t much news this week, but next week brings earnings from the major tech companies, plus the first estimate of September quarter real Gross Domestic Product growth Thursday morning and the latest Personal Consumption...

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Radar Report – 10.13.22

13
Oct 22
Dear New World Investor: The headline September Consumer Price Index continued to cool, but was hotter than expected this morning, as was the Producer Price Index yesterday and the nonfarm payrolls report last Friday. Another 75 basis point increase is a sure thing at the Fed’s November 2 meeting...

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Radar Report – 10.6.22

06
Oct 22
Dear New World Investor: What a week! Inflation vs. the Fed, labor markets vs. the Fed, OPEC+ vs. the Fed…no wonder everyone feels like the collateral damage of a drive-by shooting, even after the best two days in the market since April 2020. Let’s dive in. First, last Friday...

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Radar Report – 9.29.22

29
Sep 22
Dear New World Investor: The markets – bonds and stocks, here and overseas – have been brutal as we spiral towards a classic October bottom. There are two important factors few people are talking about that will stop Fed tightening soon, but first, the one people are talking about:...

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Radar Report – 9.22.22

22
Sep 22
Dear New World Investor: One year ago, the Fed said interest rates would remain lower for longer, they were unlikely to raise rates until 2024, they believed a recession was unlikely, inflation was transitory and not a problem, and inflation should fall to 2% in 2022. Wrong on every...

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Radar Report – 9.15.22

15
Sep 22
Dear New World Investor: The Consumer Price Index report was worse than I or, apparently, most everyone else expected, resulting in a whopping 4.3% drop in the S&P 500 and 1,276 point on the Dow Jones Industrials. About 30% of the CPI is related to real estate, where the...

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Radar Report – 9.8.22

08
Sep 22
Dear New World Investor: Stocks broke their downtrend yesterday after the Fed’s Beige Book cited softening demand and moderating price growth. Economic activity was downgraded to “stagnating” or “unchanged” after July’s “modest expansion,” with five Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity and five others reporting slight to...

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Radar Report – 9.1.22

01
Sep 22
Dear New World Investor: The S&P 500 decisively snapped a four-day losing streak today by gaining 330 points from its intraday low. The Index still lost 5.5% since last Thursday and fell 4.2% in August. It is down 16.8% year-to-date. And here comes September! When the S&P has been...

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Radar Report – 8.25.22

25
Aug 22
Dear New World Investor: Friday at 10:00am EDT Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will address the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference. Last year he said inflation was transitory to justify not responding to already-rising prices with higher interest rates. He was wrong. This year, he is expected...

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