Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Radar Report – 11.17.22

17
Nov 22
Dear New World Investor: October’s core producer price index (PPI) was unchanged from September – there was zero inflation. Annual core PPI was 6.7% year-over-year, well below the consensus estimate of 7.2%. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said: “It probably will be appropriate soon to move to a slower...

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Radar Report – 11.10.22

10
Nov 22
Dear New World Investor: And that is why they say: “They don’t ring a bell at the bottom.” A 1,200-point increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 5.54% on the S&P 500 Index, and up over 7% on the Nasdaq Composite – now that’s a good day. The...

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Radar Report – 11.3.22

03
Nov 22
Dear New World Investor: Yesterday the Fed raised the Fed funds rate by 3/4 of a percent, or 75 basis points (bps) for the fourth consecutive time. There was something for everyone in the Fed’s action. The press release had a dovish tone: “In determining the pace of future...

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Radar Report – 10.27.22

27
Oct 22
Dear New World Investor: September quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, double the Blue Chip consensus for +1.3% and half a percent under the latest Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for +3.1%. Click for larger graphic So are we not in a recession?...

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Radar Report – 10.20.22

20
Oct 22
Dear New World Investor: After the explosive Monday-Tuesday upturn, stocks retraced the whole gain. There wasn’t much news this week, but next week brings earnings from the major tech companies, plus the first estimate of September quarter real Gross Domestic Product growth Thursday morning and the latest Personal Consumption...

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Radar Report – 10.13.22

13
Oct 22
Dear New World Investor: The headline September Consumer Price Index continued to cool, but was hotter than expected this morning, as was the Producer Price Index yesterday and the nonfarm payrolls report last Friday. Another 75 basis point increase is a sure thing at the Fed’s November 2 meeting...

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Radar Report – 10.6.22

06
Oct 22
Dear New World Investor: What a week! Inflation vs. the Fed, labor markets vs. the Fed, OPEC+ vs. the Fed…no wonder everyone feels like the collateral damage of a drive-by shooting, even after the best two days in the market since April 2020. Let’s dive in. First, last Friday...

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Radar Report – 9.29.22

29
Sep 22
Dear New World Investor: The markets – bonds and stocks, here and overseas – have been brutal as we spiral towards a classic October bottom. There are two important factors few people are talking about that will stop Fed tightening soon, but first, the one people are talking about:...

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Radar Report – 9.22.22

22
Sep 22
Dear New World Investor: One year ago, the Fed said interest rates would remain lower for longer, they were unlikely to raise rates until 2024, they believed a recession was unlikely, inflation was transitory and not a problem, and inflation should fall to 2% in 2022. Wrong on every...

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Radar Report – 9.15.22

15
Sep 22
Dear New World Investor: The Consumer Price Index report was worse than I or, apparently, most everyone else expected, resulting in a whopping 4.3% drop in the S&P 500 and 1,276 point on the Dow Jones Industrials. About 30% of the CPI is related to real estate, where the...

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