Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: As expected, yesterday the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds rate by half a percentage point (50 basis points or bps), bringing the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, the highest level since 2007, while making it clear more rate hikes...

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Dear New World Investor: A big welcome to several new and returning subscribers! As you could tell from yesterday’s action, you’re just in time for the fun. Please read the Comments and make your own – there are a lot of smart people here. Fed Chairman Powell started the...

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Dear New World Investor: The latest Fed minutes, released today, said a “number of participants” said it would “become appropriate to slow the pace of increase in the target range for the federal funds rate.” That, I hope, comes as no surprise to you, as I’ve run this graphic...

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Dear New World Investor: October’s core producer price index (PPI) was unchanged from September – there was zero inflation. Annual core PPI was 6.7% year-over-year, well below the consensus estimate of 7.2%. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said: “It probably will be appropriate soon to move to a slower...

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Dear New World Investor: And that is why they say: “They don’t ring a bell at the bottom.” A 1,200-point increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 5.54% on the S&P 500 Index, and up over 7% on the Nasdaq Composite – now that’s a good day. The...

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Dear New World Investor: Yesterday the Fed raised the Fed funds rate by 3/4 of a percent, or 75 basis points (bps) for the fourth consecutive time. There was something for everyone in the Fed’s action. The press release had a dovish tone: “In determining the pace of future...

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Dear New World Investor: September quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 2.6% annualized rate, double the Blue Chip consensus for +1.3% and half a percent under the latest Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for +3.1%. Click for larger graphic So are we not in a recession?...

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Dear New World Investor: After the explosive Monday-Tuesday upturn, stocks retraced the whole gain. There wasn’t much news this week, but next week brings earnings from the major tech companies, plus the first estimate of September quarter real Gross Domestic Product growth Thursday morning and the latest Personal Consumption...

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Dear New World Investor: The headline September Consumer Price Index continued to cool, but was hotter than expected this morning, as was the Producer Price Index yesterday and the nonfarm payrolls report last Friday. Another 75 basis point increase is a sure thing at the Fed’s November 2 meeting...

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