Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: This morning’s Consumer Price Index report showed prices in December increased 6.5% from last year, less than November’s 7.1% year-over-year increase, and decreased 0.1% from November. But even as price pressures eased from the 9.1% peak of the current inflation cycle, last month’s reading marked...

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Dear New World Investor: We ended 2022 and started 2023 with very mixed economic messages. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index came in cooler than expected, rising 0.1% in November from October when the consensus estimate was for 0.2% growth. Year-over-year, the PCE price index rose 5.5%, matching estimates....

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Dear New World Investor: My annual holiday vacation is next week, so the next Radar Report will be on January 5. I may post a Flash Alert after the December 28 FDA decision on TG Therapeutics’ drug to treat multiple sclerosis. We end this annus horribilis with one of...

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Dear New World Investor: As expected, yesterday the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds rate by half a percentage point (50 basis points or bps), bringing the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, the highest level since 2007, while making it clear more rate hikes...

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Dear New World Investor: A big welcome to several new and returning subscribers! As you could tell from yesterday’s action, you’re just in time for the fun. Please read the Comments and make your own – there are a lot of smart people here. Fed Chairman Powell started the...

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Dear New World Investor: The latest Fed minutes, released today, said a “number of participants” said it would “become appropriate to slow the pace of increase in the target range for the federal funds rate.” That, I hope, comes as no surprise to you, as I’ve run this graphic...

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Dear New World Investor: October’s core producer price index (PPI) was unchanged from September – there was zero inflation. Annual core PPI was 6.7% year-over-year, well below the consensus estimate of 7.2%. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said: “It probably will be appropriate soon to move to a slower...

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Dear New World Investor: And that is why they say: “They don’t ring a bell at the bottom.” A 1,200-point increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 5.54% on the S&P 500 Index, and up over 7% on the Nasdaq Composite – now that’s a good day. The...

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Dear New World Investor: Yesterday the Fed raised the Fed funds rate by 3/4 of a percent, or 75 basis points (bps) for the fourth consecutive time. There was something for everyone in the Fed’s action. The press release had a dovish tone: “In determining the pace of future...

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