Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Radar Report – 3.2.23

03
Mar 23
Dear New World Investor: “It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. ‘Efficient’ markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.” – Warren Buffett, February 25, 2023 Last Friday’s...

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Radar Report – 2.23.23

23
Feb 23
Dear New World Investor: From the Fed minutes of their February meeting, released yesterday: “Almost all participants observed that slowing the pace of rate increases at the current juncture would allow for appropriate risk management.” It looks to me like the economy is stronger than expected (good news), which...

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Radar Report – 2.16.23

16
Feb 23
Dear New World Investor: The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at +6.4% year-over-year, its lowest since October 2021 but hotter than expected, and +0,5% month-over-month. The index for shelter accounted for nearly half of the monthly increase and was by far the largest contributor. As we (and...

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Radar Report – 2.9.23

09
Feb 23
Dear New World Investor: Did non-farm payrolls really rise by 517,000 in January, clobbering the consensus estimate for 185,000? No, they did not. The Bureau of Labor Statistics changed the seasonal adjustment factors retroactively for 2022 and dumped all the changes into the January report. As Bloomberg chief economist...

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Radar Report – 2.2.23

02
Feb 23
Dear New World Investor: “We can now say for the first time that the disinflationary process has started.” – Fed Chairman Powell, who used the word “disinflation” 12 times in yesterday’s press conference The Fed increased the funds rate a quarter-point yesterday to a new range of 4.50% to...

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Radar Report – 1.26.23

26
Jan 23
Dear New World Investor: December quarter real GDP of +2.9% came in “stronger than expected” – but not by us. This is why I regularly post the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasts. Their final December quarter update, published last Friday, forecast +3.5%: Click for larger graphic Yes, they were...

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Radar Report – 1.19.23

19
Jan 23
Dear New World Investor: The economy is slowing faster than the Fed is (publicly) acknowledging. December retail sales decreased -1.15% versus the consensus expectation for -0.9%. Gas stations, car and auto parts dealers, restaurants, and online sales were especially weak. We are seeing a sequential deceleration in the quarterly...

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Radar Report – 1.12.23

12
Jan 23
Dear New World Investor: This morning’s Consumer Price Index report showed prices in December increased 6.5% from last year, less than November’s 7.1% year-over-year increase, and decreased 0.1% from November. But even as price pressures eased from the 9.1% peak of the current inflation cycle, last month’s reading marked...

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Radar Report – 1.5.23

05
Jan 23
Dear New World Investor: We ended 2022 and started 2023 with very mixed economic messages. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index came in cooler than expected, rising 0.1% in November from October when the consensus estimate was for 0.2% growth. Year-over-year, the PCE price index rose 5.5%, matching estimates....

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Radar Report – 12.22.22

22
Dec 22
Dear New World Investor: My annual holiday vacation is next week, so the next Radar Report will be on January 5. I may post a Flash Alert after the December 28 FDA decision on TG Therapeutics’ drug to treat multiple sclerosis. We end this annus horribilis with one of...

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