Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Radar Report – 1.26.23

26
Jan 23
Dear New World Investor: December quarter real GDP of +2.9% came in “stronger than expected” – but not by us. This is why I regularly post the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasts. Their final December quarter update, published last Friday, forecast +3.5%: Click for larger graphic Yes, they were...

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Radar Report – 1.19.23

19
Jan 23
Dear New World Investor: The economy is slowing faster than the Fed is (publicly) acknowledging. December retail sales decreased -1.15% versus the consensus expectation for -0.9%. Gas stations, car and auto parts dealers, restaurants, and online sales were especially weak. We are seeing a sequential deceleration in the quarterly...

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Radar Report – 1.12.23

12
Jan 23
Dear New World Investor: This morning’s Consumer Price Index report showed prices in December increased 6.5% from last year, less than November’s 7.1% year-over-year increase, and decreased 0.1% from November. But even as price pressures eased from the 9.1% peak of the current inflation cycle, last month’s reading marked...

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Radar Report – 1.5.23

05
Jan 23
Dear New World Investor: We ended 2022 and started 2023 with very mixed economic messages. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index came in cooler than expected, rising 0.1% in November from October when the consensus estimate was for 0.2% growth. Year-over-year, the PCE price index rose 5.5%, matching estimates....

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Radar Report – 12.22.22

22
Dec 22
Dear New World Investor: My annual holiday vacation is next week, so the next Radar Report will be on January 5. I may post a Flash Alert after the December 28 FDA decision on TG Therapeutics’ drug to treat multiple sclerosis. We end this annus horribilis with one of...

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Radar Report – 12.15.22

15
Dec 22
Dear New World Investor: As expected, yesterday the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds rate by half a percentage point (50 basis points or bps), bringing the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, the highest level since 2007, while making it clear more rate hikes...

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Radar Report – 12.8.22

08
Dec 22
Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s “strong” (well, higher than expected) nonfarm payrolls report, +263,000, set off a five-day losing streak in the S&P 500 that ended today. Investors are afraid that the Fed might keep the interest rate pressure higher for longer, thus causing a harder economic downturn...

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Radar Report – 12.1.22

01
Dec 22
Dear New World Investor: A big welcome to several new and returning subscribers! As you could tell from yesterday’s action, you’re just in time for the fun. Please read the Comments and make your own – there are a lot of smart people here. Fed Chairman Powell started the...

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Radar Report – 11.23.22

23
Nov 22
Dear New World Investor: The latest Fed minutes, released today, said a “number of participants” said it would “become appropriate to slow the pace of increase in the target range for the federal funds rate.” That, I hope, comes as no surprise to you, as I’ve run this graphic...

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Radar Report – 11.17.22

17
Nov 22
Dear New World Investor: October’s core producer price index (PPI) was unchanged from September – there was zero inflation. Annual core PPI was 6.7% year-over-year, well below the consensus estimate of 7.2%. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said: “It probably will be appropriate soon to move to a slower...

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