Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Radar Report 3.23.23

23
Mar 23
Dear New World Investor: “Whenever the Fed hits the brakes, someone goes through the windshield.” It’s an old Wall Street saying born of painful observation, and it’s true. After 11 days of turmoil that brought down four banks and left a fifth teetering, the markets went from pricing...

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Radar Report – 3.16.23

16
Mar 23
Dear New World Investor: Well, the Fed finally broke something. This morning, Yahoo Finance wrote: “The once-difficult job now facing Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell and his central banker colleagues just became a seemingly impossible dilemma — continue its fight against inflation by raising rates and tightening credit markets...

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Radar Report – 3.9.23

10
Mar 23
Dear New World Investor: Date: Tuesday, March 7, 2023 Scene: Senate Banking Committee Hearing: Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony Presenter: Jerome Powell, Chairman, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Due to the persistence of inflation, we may have to raise rates in larger steps again, and to higher levels than previously expected. Senator Murphy...

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Radar Report – 3.2.23

03
Mar 23
Dear New World Investor: “It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. ‘Efficient’ markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.” – Warren Buffett, February 25, 2023 Last Friday’s...

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Radar Report – 2.23.23

23
Feb 23
Dear New World Investor: From the Fed minutes of their February meeting, released yesterday: “Almost all participants observed that slowing the pace of rate increases at the current juncture would allow for appropriate risk management.” It looks to me like the economy is stronger than expected (good news), which...

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Radar Report – 2.16.23

16
Feb 23
Dear New World Investor: The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at +6.4% year-over-year, its lowest since October 2021 but hotter than expected, and +0,5% month-over-month. The index for shelter accounted for nearly half of the monthly increase and was by far the largest contributor. As we (and...

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Radar Report – 2.9.23

09
Feb 23
Dear New World Investor: Did non-farm payrolls really rise by 517,000 in January, clobbering the consensus estimate for 185,000? No, they did not. The Bureau of Labor Statistics changed the seasonal adjustment factors retroactively for 2022 and dumped all the changes into the January report. As Bloomberg chief economist...

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Radar Report – 2.2.23

02
Feb 23
Dear New World Investor: “We can now say for the first time that the disinflationary process has started.” – Fed Chairman Powell, who used the word “disinflation” 12 times in yesterday’s press conference The Fed increased the funds rate a quarter-point yesterday to a new range of 4.50% to...

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Radar Report – 1.26.23

26
Jan 23
Dear New World Investor: December quarter real GDP of +2.9% came in “stronger than expected” – but not by us. This is why I regularly post the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasts. Their final December quarter update, published last Friday, forecast +3.5%: Click for larger graphic Yes, they were...

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Radar Report – 1.19.23

19
Jan 23
Dear New World Investor: The economy is slowing faster than the Fed is (publicly) acknowledging. December retail sales decreased -1.15% versus the consensus expectation for -0.9%. Gas stations, car and auto parts dealers, restaurants, and online sales were especially weak. We are seeing a sequential deceleration in the quarterly...

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