Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: Nonfarm payrolls rose by 253,000 in April with the unemployment rate falling to 3.4%. Economists expected 185,000 jobs last month with the unemployment rate ticking marginally higher to 3.6%. April was even stronger than March’s +236,000 – maybe. But is the jobs market really that...

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Dear New World Investor: The Fed is following my November 3 game plan to a T: Click for larger graphic The Fed in March: “We anticipate that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return...

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Dear New World Investor: While the unemployment rate remains below 4%, the number of permanent job losses has begun to rise significantly. The latest two-month increase was as steep as in every recession for the last 30 years. Layoffs in higher-paying jobs has been increasing, causing a rise in...

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Dear New World Investor: On April 11, a dad and his five children were in their second-story apartment in Queens while he was charging his e-bike in the vestibule. Suddenly, the battery exploded in flames. As the fire raced through the building, he and three of the kids jumped...

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Dear New World Investor: The S&P 500 bottomed on October 12 at 3491.58. It’s a Wall Street shibboleth that the market leads the economy by six months, so let’s see – November 12, December 12, January 12, February 12, March 12, April 12 – yep, here we are. All...

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Dear New World Investor: Inflation is slowing towards the Fed’s current 2% target. Employment is slowing rapidly, with the March payrolls number due during tomorrow’s stock and bond market holiday. In February, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation — was...

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Dear New World Investor: In the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank et. al.failures, Wall Street sentiment has turned from mere “doom and gloom” to outright “apocalyptic.” According to the latest BofA fund manager survey, the majority of Wall Street professionals now expect a “systemic credit event” emerging...

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Dear New World Investor: “Whenever the Fed hits the brakes, someone goes through the windshield.” It’s an old Wall Street saying born of painful observation, and it’s true. After 11 days of turmoil that brought down four banks and left a fifth teetering, the markets went from pricing...

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Dear New World Investor: Well, the Fed finally broke something. This morning, Yahoo Finance wrote: “The once-difficult job now facing Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell and his central banker colleagues just became a seemingly impossible dilemma — continue its fight against inflation by raising rates and tightening credit markets...

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Dear New World Investor: Date: Tuesday, March 7, 2023 Scene: Senate Banking Committee Hearing: Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony Presenter: Jerome Powell, Chairman, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Due to the persistence of inflation, we may have to raise rates in larger steps again, and to higher levels than previously expected. Senator Murphy...

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