Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson, President Biden’s nominee to be Vice Chair of the Fed’s Board of Governors, and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggested yesterday that the Fed could pause rate hikes at its next policy meeting on June 13-14. But Wednesday’s Job Opening...

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Dear New World Investor: Traders have fully priced in another quarter-point (25 basis points) interest-rate increase by the Fed within the next two policy meetings and a more than 1-in-2 chance that hike could arrive as soon as the June 14 meeting. Near-term yields have moved higher for 10...

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Dear New World Investor: Many years ago, I learned that one good way to make money in the market is to understand the consensus view and then figure out where it is most likely to be wrong. Not that the consensus is always wrong – it’s usually right but...

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Dear New World Investor: Nonfarm payrolls rose by 253,000 in April with the unemployment rate falling to 3.4%. Economists expected 185,000 jobs last month with the unemployment rate ticking marginally higher to 3.6%. April was even stronger than March’s +236,000 – maybe. But is the jobs market really that...

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Dear New World Investor: The Fed is following my November 3 game plan to a T: Click for larger graphic The Fed in March: “We anticipate that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return...

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Dear New World Investor: While the unemployment rate remains below 4%, the number of permanent job losses has begun to rise significantly. The latest two-month increase was as steep as in every recession for the last 30 years. Layoffs in higher-paying jobs has been increasing, causing a rise in...

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Dear New World Investor: On April 11, a dad and his five children were in their second-story apartment in Queens while he was charging his e-bike in the vestibule. Suddenly, the battery exploded in flames. As the fire raced through the building, he and three of the kids jumped...

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Dear New World Investor: The S&P 500 bottomed on October 12 at 3491.58. It’s a Wall Street shibboleth that the market leads the economy by six months, so let’s see – November 12, December 12, January 12, February 12, March 12, April 12 – yep, here we are. All...

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Dear New World Investor: Inflation is slowing towards the Fed’s current 2% target. Employment is slowing rapidly, with the March payrolls number due during tomorrow’s stock and bond market holiday. In February, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation — was...

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Dear New World Investor: In the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank et. al.failures, Wall Street sentiment has turned from mere “doom and gloom” to outright “apocalyptic.” According to the latest BofA fund manager survey, the majority of Wall Street professionals now expect a “systemic credit event” emerging...

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