Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: Before we start, I want to thank so many of you for the wonderful emails and messages you sent over the last week. Being in bed for 60 straight hours with COVID is no fun, but knowing you had my back means the world to...

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Dear New World Investor: The Fed paused (good news for stocks) at their 22-year high for the Fed funds rate, but made it clear my “Higher for Longer” scenario is their current policy (bad news for stocks). Twelve memberssaid they expect one more hike this year while seven are...

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Dear New World Investor: The August Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year (YOY), driven by gasoline prices that accounted for over half of the increase. That was faster than July’s 3.2% but far below the 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022. It was the second straight increase after...

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Dear New World Investor: This week I want to review some TechBio companies applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to biotech. These are speculative positions, and I haven’t done enough work to recommend one yet, but this is going to be a HUGE investment theme for the...

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Dear New World Investor: At last week’s Jackson Hole Fed conference. Chairman Powell said he expected this morning’s core July Personal Consumption Expenditures Index– the Fed’s favorite inflation measure – to be +4.3% year-over-year. Wall Street was on board: Click for larger graphic – read month-over-month (year-over-year) The core...

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Dear New World Investor: Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Powell speaks at the annual Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Here’s what he will say: “We will continue to be data-dependent in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time. We...

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Dear New World Investor: Tuesday’s July retail sales report increased 0.7% from June, more than Wall Street’s estimates for +0.4%. Sales excluding auto and gas increased by 1.0%, well above estimates for +0.3% compiled by Bloomberg. June sales were revised up to +0.3% from +0.2%. Not surprisingly, the Fed...

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Dear New World Investor: Today’s Consumer Price Index report ticked up to 3.2% in July, lower than expected. Core inflation fell to 4.7%, in line with expectations. Click for larger graphic h/t @SteveRattner On a monthly basis, inflation hit the Fed’s 2.0% annual goal, with headline at 0.17%...

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Dear New World Investor: Oh, no! Fitch downgraded US government debt from AAA to AA+! I did not expect this! It dramatically affects… Nothing. Literally. Not. A. Thing. As Mohamed El-Erian said: “Why now? When you look at the reason, you scratch your head as to the timing of...

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Dear New World Investor: I was wrong. I thought that with inflation cooling, lagging components like rent set to fall for several months, manufacturing already in a recession, and labor markets cooling, the Fed would be smart enough to continue pausing interest rates and watching incoming data to see...

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