Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: This morning’s first estimate of September quarter real Gross Domestic Product growth was +4.9%. Click for larger graphic It shocked Wall Street, which was looking for +4.5%, and the Blue Chip economists at +3.5%, but not you, I hope. The final GDPNow reading from the...

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Dear New World Investor: Fed Chairman Powell spoke today. This struck me as a notable shift from Powell: “Indicators of wage growth show a gradual decline toward levels that would be consistent with 2% inflation over time.” He didn’t even mention core services ex-housing—the Fed’s proxy for concerns about...

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Dear New World Investor: This was worry-about-inflation week, with both Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index reports. The TL:DR is inflation has slowed, remains sticky at current levels, and the Fed will hold rates higher for longer even if they don’t declare one more increase. In that environment,...

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Dear New World Investor: Before we start, I want to thank so many of you for the wonderful emails and messages you sent over the last week. Being in bed for 60 straight hours with COVID is no fun, but knowing you had my back means the world to...

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Dear New World Investor: The Fed paused (good news for stocks) at their 22-year high for the Fed funds rate, but made it clear my “Higher for Longer” scenario is their current policy (bad news for stocks). Twelve memberssaid they expect one more hike this year while seven are...

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Dear New World Investor: The August Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year (YOY), driven by gasoline prices that accounted for over half of the increase. That was faster than July’s 3.2% but far below the 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022. It was the second straight increase after...

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Dear New World Investor: This week I want to review some TechBio companies applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to biotech. These are speculative positions, and I haven’t done enough work to recommend one yet, but this is going to be a HUGE investment theme for the...

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Dear New World Investor: At last week’s Jackson Hole Fed conference. Chairman Powell said he expected this morning’s core July Personal Consumption Expenditures Index– the Fed’s favorite inflation measure – to be +4.3% year-over-year. Wall Street was on board: Click for larger graphic – read month-over-month (year-over-year) The core...

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Dear New World Investor: Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Powell speaks at the annual Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Here’s what he will say: “We will continue to be data-dependent in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time. We...

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Dear New World Investor: Tuesday’s July retail sales report increased 0.7% from June, more than Wall Street’s estimates for +0.4%. Sales excluding auto and gas increased by 1.0%, well above estimates for +0.3% compiled by Bloomberg. June sales were revised up to +0.3% from +0.2%. Not surprisingly, the Fed...

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