Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: The final Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for December quarter real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was +2.4%, stronger than the Blue Chip economists’ consensus for +1.5%. The first government announcement this morning was an even stronger +3.3%. September quarter GDP was revised down to +4.9%,...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: So December retail sales were up 0.6% and that was enough for the market to fear the bogeyman…err, Chairman Powell…might not cut rates as soon as they thought. So down went stocks yesterday. Well, duh. It’s important for you to know that my economic outlook...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s payroll number was stronger than expected and this morning’s December Consumer Price Index announcement came in hotter than expected. In part, it was driven by base effects – a low December 2022 number – and will drop significantly next month due to…base effects....

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: Click for larger graphic 2023 was a good year for the market but a disappointing year for us. Although I (barely) outperformed the S&P 500 Index, I lagged way behind the Nasdaq Composite. In part that was due to my bias towards smaller companies in...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: Due to the lack of news, the holidays, and a daughter home from college for an all-too-brief visit, I’m going to do my annual holiday skip of next week’s issue and be back on January 4 for a much better 2024. The markets are about...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: As we come to the end of the year, company news flow shrinks sharply. They enter a blackout period when they can’t buy back stock and don’t want to comment on how their December quarter is going, unless it is much better or much worse...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: Before the Fed meeting decision next Wednesday, we get November payroll growth tomorrow morning and the November Consumer Price Index next Tuesday morning. This week we found out that US job openings dropped to more than a 2½-year low in October. The Labor Department’s Job...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: This morning’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) announcement showed October prices grew 3% year-over-year, down from 3.4% in September and in line with expectations. The core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, grew 3.5%, down...

Read More »

Dear New World Investor: This is the fifth week of the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator giving a contrarian “Buy’” signal (left graphic). Note the median 1% to 3% gains from 20 buy signals in the past 20 years (right graphic). That targets 4550 for the S&P 500 –...

Read More »