Author Archives: Michael Murphy

Dear New World Investor: Last Friday’s payroll number was stronger than expected and this morning’s December Consumer Price Index announcement came in hotter than expected. In part, it was driven by base effects – a low December 2022 number – and will drop significantly next month due to…base effects....

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Dear New World Investor: Click for larger graphic 2023 was a good year for the market but a disappointing year for us. Although I (barely) outperformed the S&P 500 Index, I lagged way behind the Nasdaq Composite. In part that was due to my bias towards smaller companies in...

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Dear New World Investor: Due to the lack of news, the holidays, and a daughter home from college for an all-too-brief visit, I’m going to do my annual holiday skip of next week’s issue and be back on January 4 for a much better 2024. The markets are about...

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Dear New World Investor: As we come to the end of the year, company news flow shrinks sharply. They enter a blackout period when they can’t buy back stock and don’t want to comment on how their December quarter is going, unless it is much better or much worse...

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Dear New World Investor: Before the Fed meeting decision next Wednesday, we get November payroll growth tomorrow morning and the November Consumer Price Index next Tuesday morning. This week we found out that US job openings dropped to more than a 2½-year low in October. The Labor Department’s Job...

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Dear New World Investor: This morning’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) announcement showed October prices grew 3% year-over-year, down from 3.4% in September and in line with expectations. The core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, grew 3.5%, down...

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Dear New World Investor: This is the fifth week of the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator giving a contrarian “Buy’” signal (left graphic). Note the median 1% to 3% gains from 20 buy signals in the past 20 years (right graphic). That targets 4550 for the S&P 500 –...

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Dear New World Investor: The headline October Consumer Price Index showed prices fell 0.04% over September – deflation! – and rose 3.2% over last year. Both were slower than September’s 0.4% monthly and 3.7% annual increase, and below the consensus expectation for 0.1% and 3.3%. The core CPI...

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Dear New World Investor: The September quarter was the best earnings quarter in a year for the S&P 500, thanks to strong consumer spending as Americans continued to dine out, take trips, and buy online. That drove profits at some of the biggest companies. Click for larger graphic According...

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Dear New World Investor: So the Fed continued their pause and said they don’t see inflation reaching 2% until 2025, which implies these rates or higher for another 18 months to two years. I expect a new record length of time between the last rate hike and the first...

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