Author Archives: Michael Murphy

New World Investor – 4.4.24

04
Apr 24
Dear New World Investor: Wall Street wants you to focus on how many times the Fed will cut rates this year even though economic data is coming in stronger than they expected. Almost every brokerage firm expects a quarter-point cut at the June 12 Fed meeting, followed by two...

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New World Investor – 3.28.24

28
Mar 24
Dear New World Investor: Although tomorrow is a stock market holiday, we are supposed to get the February Personal Consumption Index inflation. Core PCE is estimated at over 3%, which will keep the Fed in “High – but not higher – for longer” mode. Click for larger graphic h/t...

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New World Investor – 3.21.24

21
Mar 24
Dear New World Investor: The Fed met and said the economy is much stronger than they expected but they still expect three quarter-point reductions in the Fed funds rate this year. I think they’re wrong on both counts. You could obsess over the gory details or you could just...

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New World Investor – 3.14.24

14
Mar 24
Dear New World Investor: The headline February Consumer Price Index was +3.2% year-over-year. a skotch higher than the +3.1% expected and the +3.1% in January. The lagging shelter component accounted for about two-thirds of the increase. The month-over-month CPI was +0.4%, right on the consensus but a tenth above...

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New World Investor – 3.7.24

07
Mar 24
Dear New World Investor: Stocks hit new highs as Chairman Powell told Congress the central bank is in no hurry to ease policy, though he said rate cuts are likely to come this year. I’m still doubtful, although I think a mild recession will start this year. It takes...

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New World Investor – 2.29.24

29
Feb 24
Dear New World Investor: Scotland Yard detective Gregory: “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?” Sherlock Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.” Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.” Holmes: ”That was the curious incident.”   –...

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New World Investor – 2.22.24

22
Feb 24
Dear New World Investor: As I expected, Nvidia (NVDA) reported a strong January quarter after the close yesterday and guided the April quarter above estimates. The stock was up $110.66 or 16.4% today to new record highs as Wall Street fell all over themselves to raise their ratings and...

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New World Investor – 2.15.24

16
Feb 24
Dear New World Investor: Rents were high a year ago, so the S&P 500 fell 68 points on Tuesday after the Consumer Price Index for January was announced. If that doesn’t make any sense to you, this is how Wall Street shakes out the weak hands so they can...

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New World Investor – 2.8.24

09
Feb 24
Dear New World Investor: New Recommendation: Vermilion Energy (VET) – See below under Oil Last Friday, stocks rallied sharply after December payroll additions were revised up from +216,000 to +333,000. We learned that the US added another 353,000 jobs in January, the most since January 2023, nearly twice the...

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New World Investor – 2.1.24

02
Feb 24
Dear New World Investor: New email delivery rules from Google and others go into effect today. If you didn’t get the usual email saying this issue is posted, that’s why. I’ve wasted spent hours working to comply with their constantly changing rules, despite never in the history of NWI...

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